| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -13.1% | - |
Maple Tree Capital delivered mixed Q3 2025 results with Jonagold declining 13.12% due to a late-quarter 30% drop in largest holding Upstart, while Heartwood surged 40.2% driven by exceptional performance from Nebius, CoreWeave, and Uranium Energy Corp. The manager maintains high conviction in their concentrated approach, believing retail investors possess advantages in time and conviction over Wall Street. Upstart remains the core thesis despite volatility, with the manager viewing recent delinquency concerns as overblown after BTIG corrected their inaccurate report. Heartwood's turnaround reflects strategic repositioning, selling underperformers like Krispy Kreme and Academy Sports while adding AI infrastructure plays. The manager sees this AI-driven bull market in its infancy, expecting infrastructure buildout to benefit both GPU/data center companies and AI applications like Upstart and Lemonade over the next five years. Portfolio concentration and volatility are viewed as necessary costs for generating outsized returns, with risk management through options strategies being refined.
Retail investors possess distinct advantages over Wall Street in terms of time and conviction, which Maple Tree Capital leverages through concentrated, high-beta portfolios focused on companies with substantial growth prospects that are temporarily out of favor or significantly misunderstood.
The manager believes this AI-driven bull market remains in its long-term infancy with continued momentum expected. Q4 guidance reflects increased optimism in AI infrastructure durability for Heartwood (5-7% expected returns) but uncertainty regarding short-term market perception of Upstart and Grindr for Jonagold (-10% to +10% expected returns).
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ASO, CRWV, DNUT, GOOGL, GRND, HIMS, LMND, NBIS, PGR, SN, TSLA, UEC, UPST | AI, Concentration, conviction, growth, small caps, technology, volatility |
UPST GRND |
Concentrated retail fund leveraging time and conviction advantages delivered mixed Q3 results with Jonagold down 13% on Upstart volatility while Heartwood surged 40% on AI infrastructure plays. Manager maintains high conviction in AI-driven bull market's early stages, viewing current volatility as necessary cost for outsized long-term returns through bottom-up fundamental research. |
| Jul 4 2025 | 2025 Q2 | DNUT, GRND, HIMS, LMND, NBIS, UPST | AI, Concentration, Fintech, growth, small caps, technology, volatility |
LMND GRND UPST LMND HIMS GRDR |
Maple Tree Capital's concentrated small-cap strategy delivered exceptional Q2 returns of 42% for Jonagold and 26% for Heartwood by buying volatility during tariff-induced selloffs. The manager increased conviction positions in AI-driven fintech Upstart and insurance tech Lemonade while cutting losses on Krispy Kreme. Strong performance continues since 2023 inception with 91% CAGR for Jonagold. |
| Apr 9 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ASO, CRWD, DNUT, EA, GRDR, HIMS, LMND, LYFT, RDDT, UEC, UPST | AI, Concentration, cybersecurity, growth, nuclear, tariffs, technology, volatility |
UPST DNUT ASO UEC EA CRWD LYFT RDDT |
Jonagold's concentrated growth strategy faced headwinds in Q1 with -13.64% returns as Trump tariffs spooked markets. Manager doubled down on conviction, significantly increasing Upstart position following strong earnings while generating covered call income. Despite near-term challenges from trade war volatility, the fund maintains focus on misunderstood AI-enabled businesses positioned for long-term outperformance once market sentiment recovers. |
| Oct 1 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ADBE, ASO, CHGG, CRWD, DIS, DNUT, GOOGL, GRND, HIMS, LMND, LYFT, RKLB, SMCI, SOUN, TSLA, UEC, UPST | Fintech, growth, Rate Cuts, small caps, technology, turnaround | - | Jonagold crushed Q3 with 32.65% returns by concentrating into four core small-cap holdings. Upstart led performance after strong earnings and guidance signaled a company turnaround. Added Crowdstrike post-outage decline, viewing it as validation of their cybersecurity moat. Expects continued small-cap outperformance as Fed cuts rates, though fundamentals will increasingly drive returns over sentiment. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe manager believes this AI-driven bull market remains in its long-term infancy, with deep capex spend by Big Tech companies signaling increased momentum. They see AI applications like Upstart and Lemonade becoming the next investment wave to build on top of infrastructure over the next 5 years. |
Infrastructure Applications Capex Big Tech GPUs |
UraniumUranium Energy Corporation became Heartwood's largest holding after the manager anticipated that AI race acceleration would make data center power constraints more visible to the broader market. UEC, as an American uranium miner, was positioned to benefit from accelerated nuclear energy demand. |
Nuclear Data Centers Power Mining Energy | |
FinTechThe manager maintains high conviction in Upstart as an AI lending marketplace, believing the company's fundamental improvements including diversified products, borrowers and funding base position it well long-term. They view fintech applications as benefiting from AI infrastructure buildout. |
Lending Credit Marketplace Diversification Applications | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIUpstart's AI underwriting capabilities are central to the investment thesis, with the manager attending AI Day and emphasizing how AI improvements drive better credit decisions and expanding product offerings. The AI models are becoming more accurate and comprehensive while reducing business volatility. |
AI Underwriting Credit Machine Learning Fintech |
FintechHeavy focus on financial technology companies, particularly Upstart's lending platform and credit models. The manager views fintech as transformative for traditional financial services, with emphasis on data-driven underwriting and expanding into new credit products like purchase mortgages. |
Fintech Lending Credit Digital Finance Platform | |
Small CapsPortfolio is deliberately concentrated in small-cap companies with high beta characteristics. The manager emphasizes that every giant tech company was once a high beta small cap, and retail investors have advantages in time and conviction for these volatile but potentially rewarding investments. |
Small Cap High Beta Volatility Growth Concentration | |
| 2025 Q1 |
AIUpstart's latest AI model enhancements, including m18 and m19, set the company up well to execute in the newly unfavorable environment. Electronic Arts has consistently invested more in R&D than its peers, positioning itself to lead in the AI-driven future of gaming. Reddit holds incredibly unique and structured user-generated data, which will be extremely valuable in the AI era. |
Machine Learning Data Analytics Gaming AI User Data Model Enhancement |
TariffsPresident Trump has launched a sweeping wave of tariffs on countries around the world, aiming to revive American manufacturing and force better trade deals. The speed and scale of these tariffs have caught markets off guard, sparking panic and triggering a sharp selloff on Wall Street. Academy Sports & Outdoors has been hit hard from the recent Trump tariffs, as have most retailers. |
Trade Policy Manufacturing Retail Impact Market Volatility Economic Policy | |
CybersecurityCrowdStrike was purchased during the July cyber outage dip, representing one of those rare moments where the market panicked on a market leader. As one of the most crucial cyber security providers out there, their recent failure has largely been forgotten. CrowdStrike fits the strategy well with strong customer retention, a clear moat, and a path to margin expansion. |
Cyber Outage Market Leader Customer Retention Security Moat Recovery | |
NuclearPresident Trump just signed an executive order suggesting the use of coal to power the energy needs of data centers, and uranium imports from China were also restricted. Uranium Energy Corporation stands alone as the only American uranium energy company that has the potential to be a leader in powering the nuclear energy needs of America. |
Data Centers Energy Independence Uranium Mining Executive Order American Energy | |
GamingElectronic Arts trades at a 33x earnings multiple due to heavy R&D spend, yet it trades below 20x free cash flow. While their new game Dragon Age was by all means a flop and video game trends softened into Q1, EA's position is still extremely strong with their licensing power. Electronic Arts has consistently invested more in R&D than its peers, positioning itself to lead in the AI-driven future of gaming. |
R&D Investment Licensing Power Free Cash Flow Gaming Trends Valuation Disconnect | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Small CapsJonagold strategically focuses on small-cap investments with substantial growth prospects that are temporarily out of favor due to cyclical trends or significantly misunderstood. The fund expects small caps to continue performing well as the Federal Reserve further reduces rates, with rate-sensitive securities front-loading near the end of Q3. |
Small Caps Growth Rates Cyclical |
FintechMajor positions in fintech companies including Upstart Holdings as the largest position, which reported favorable Q2 results and guided extremely well for Q3, leading to multiple expansion and a significant change in public narrative. The manager views this as a significant reinvention of the company and remains extremely optimistic on where Upstart is headed. |
Fintech Lending Consumer Finance Turnaround | |
CybersecurityInitiated Crowdstrike after it fell approximately 40% following the massive tech outage on July 19, 2024. The manager viewed the outage as clear evidence of Crowdstrike's power and moat, noting that the entire tech sector practically shut down, demonstrating the company's industry position and limited ripple effects from the outage. |
Cybersecurity Moat Industry Leader Tech Outage |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | HenryInvests | UPST | Upstart Holdings Inc. | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Credit, diversification, Fintech, Lending, profitability, underwriting | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | HenryInvests | GRND | Grindr Inc. | Information Technology | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NYSE | Community, Engagement, growth, monetization, Social, Subscription | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Jonagold | LMND | Lemonade | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | NYSE | AI, Digital Insurance, Insurtech, operating leverage, Reinsurance, technology platform | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | HenryInvests | LMND | Lemonade, Inc. | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, growth, Insurance, Reinsurance, underwriting | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | HenryInvests | GRND | Grindr Inc. | Communication Services | Social Media | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | LGBTQ+, Margins, Pricingpower, Socialmedia, Subscriptions | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Jonagold | UPST | Upstart Holdings | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Credit Underwriting, Fintech, high-beta, lending platform, machine learning, Short squeeze, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Jonagold | HIMS | Hims & Hers Health | Health Care | Health Care Services | Neutral | NYSE | covered calls, Momentum Stock, Options trading, telehealth, Volatility | Login |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Jonagold | GRDR | Grindr | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NYSE | EBITDA margins, Free Cash Flow, LGBTQ+, Mobile App, social networking, subscription model | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Jonagold | EA | Electronic Arts | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Activist Target, AI Gaming, Free Cash Flow, Licensing Power, R&D investment, valuation disconnect, Video games | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Jonagold | CRWD | CrowdStrike | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | customer retention, Cyber Outage Recovery, cybersecurity, Enterprise security, market leader, operating leverage, platform growth | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Jonagold | DNUT | Krispy Kreme | Consumer Discretionary | Restaurants | Bear | NASDAQ | Consumer Brand, cyber-attack, GLP-1 Impact, high debt, McDonald's Partnership, Restaurant Chain, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Jonagold | ASO | Academy Sports & Outdoors | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Cyclical, deep value, Post-COVID Normalization, Share Buybacks, Specialty retail, Sporting goods, tariff impact | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Jonagold | UPST | Upstart Holdings | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI lending, Auto lending, Credit Platform, Fintech, growth, HELOC, Misunderstood, operating leverage, Revenue Growth | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Jonagold | LYFT | Lyft | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Brand Recovery, Ride Sharing, Robotaxi Competition, turnaround, Underappreciated | Login |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Jonagold | RDDT | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NYSE | AI Era, clean balance sheet, monetization, social media, stock dilution, user engagement, User-Generated Data | Login | |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Maple Tree Capital - Jonagold | UEC | Uranium Energy Corporation | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE American | Commodity Proxy, domestic production, Energy independence, geopolitical, infrastructure, Nuclear Power, Uranium mining | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| UPST | Upstart grew revenue 102% YoY while turning a $(55)M loss into a $6M profit. Auto and HELOC products gained meaningful traction, and when combined with SDL, Upstart's secondary products made up more than 10% of total origination volume for the first time in company history. However, loans held on the balance sheet rose to nearly $1B, largely driven by $700M in R&D (Home and Auto) loans. CEO Dave Girouard called this a timing issue tied to new product lines, noting plans to move these loans off balance sheet by year-end. We continue to believe the company's fundamental improvements (a diversified product, borrower and funding base) coupled with their rapidly growing AI edge position then well to become the leading AI lending marketplace. |
| GRND | Shares of Grindr have entered into a steep decline over the quarter. The market now believes GRND faces increased competition, from a fast growing orgy dating app Sniffies, as well as overstated/inflated user metrics. While Grindr has addressed these concerns, ARPPU growth came in light during their most recent quarter and a short report was issued, adding steam to this narrative. We continue to believe Grindr is positioned well to become the social network for the LGBTQ+ community and we anticipate adding to our stake in Q3. |
| HIMS | We sold our position in Hims and Hers this quarter following what we believe are increased regulatory risks to the business. Not only have GLP-1s (weight-loss drugs) become more challenging and competitive, but Hims and Hers core telehealth business (having NPs prescribe anti-depressant and other medication) appears more shaky than we initially believed. We sold our (small) position near $52 to reallocate into Upstart near $70. |
| LMND | Lemonade continues to impress and remains a very high-conviction name in the Jonagold portfolio. With Agentic AI now running a majority of their back-end operations, we see immense potential for operating leverage as they scale their trusted, Gen-Z friendly brand. We will look to add to our position as we accumulate additional capital. |
| UEC | In Q4 2024, Heartwood took a large stake in Uranium Energy Corporation (UEC) which was funded by our sale of Google. We believed that as the AI race accelerated, data center power constraints would become much more visible to the broader market. UEC, as an American uranium miner (u3o8 is the core ingredient in nuclear energy), was perfectly positioned to benefit from this accelerated demand. While GOOGL shares have risen nearly 40% since our exit, our UEC position has appreciated over 130%, transforming it into Heartwood's largest holding. |
| NBIS | In Q2 2025, Heartwood sold Krispy Kreme (DNUT) for a 72.4% loss. We rotated the small principal left from the sale into Nebius (NBIS) at a cost basis of $31.35, with shares currently trading for $121.80. The resulting 288% gain has not only fully offset our entire DNUT loss, but has generated incremental outperformance for the fund. This trade now stands as Heartwood's best ever. |
| CRWV | In Q3 2025, Heartwood sold Shark Ninja (SN) and Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) to rotate into CoreWeave (CRWV). We believe CoreWeave better fits these principles of companies with the potential for operating leverage, brand reinvention, and long-term relevance. |
| DNUT | In Q2 2025, Heartwood sold Krispy Kreme (DNUT) for a 72.4% loss. This created a substantial drag on the fund's performance. Academy Sports and Krispy Kreme fell into that category of companies that no longer met our investment criteria. |
| ASO | In the case of ASO, the company had not grown same store sales as we had expected post 2022/2023 overhang. While extremely cheap, ASO no longer met Heartwood's objective in finding companies with the potential for operating leverage, brand reinvention, and long-term relevance. |
| GOOGL | In Q4 2024, Heartwood took a large stake in Uranium Energy Corporation (UEC) which was funded by our sale of Google. While GOOGL shares have risen nearly 40% since our exit, our UEC position has appreciated over 130%, transforming it into Heartwood's largest holding. |
| SN | In Q3 2025, Heartwood sold Shark Ninja (SN) and Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) to rotate into CoreWeave (CRWV). We had a very small position in Shark Ninja, at a substantial gain, and believed the opportunity costs was too great not to reallocate capital. |
| PGR | Later in August, we identified a partnership between Upstart and Progressive that had yet to gain mainstream attention. Originally and quietly announced in 2019, the collaboration remains active today. Progressive periodically emails its customers offering personal loan options and those who click through are redirected directly to Upstart's platform. |
| TSLA | Additionally, Henry did another segment with Gali on Tesla, discussing the robotaxi launch as well as how Elon's politics and America Party ambitions will affect the company. |
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