| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -5.16% | 10.7% |
Massif Capital's Real Assets Strategy fell 5.16% net in Q2 2026, bringing YTD returns to 10.7%, with portfolio volatility doubling to 32.8% annualized versus 16.2% historical average. The manager attributes elevated volatility to increased commodity beta and a structural shift from geology-first to geography-first pricing, where geopolitics has become an endogenous variable rather than an exogenous shock. Norwegian energy positions moved on Iran-Hormuz headlines rather than corporate fundamentals, while Lundin Mining and Equinox Gold fell sharply despite operational improvements, driven by sentiment and trade policy rather than drill results. The letter argues that states increasingly weaponize control over critical network nodes—from AI models to power transformers to rare earth refining—creating a zero-sum regime where interdependence amplifies coercion. Portfolio implications include bias toward producers in allied jurisdictions, exposure through un-weaponizable real assets rather than financial overlays, and positioning for dispersion rather than direction. The manager views current market volatility pricing as structurally too low for a regime where the same geopolitical variable moves every cargo and corridor simultaneously.
Geography has displaced geology as the primary determinant of commodity prices, with geopolitics shifting from an exogenous risk factor to an endogenous variable priced into every revenue line, discount rate, and physical asset, creating a zero-sum regime that rewards ownership of un-weaponizable real assets in credible jurisdictions over financial overlays and passive exposure.
The manager expects geopolitical factors to remain endogenous rather than reverting to exogenous status, with the regime rewarding stock picking over passive ownership and deep due diligence over terminal-value stories. The gap between market-priced volatility and regime-produced volatility is expected to close, though timing is uncertain. The portfolio is positioned for continued dispersion in a zero-sum geopolitical environment where control over network nodes increasingly determines asset prices independent of production costs.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30 2026 | 2026 Q2 | ACMCF, AFM.TO, AKRBP.OL, CHG.L, ENVX, EQNR, EQX.TO, GLO.TO, HBR.L, LRV.AX, LUNMF, VAR.OL | AI, Copper, Critical Minerals, geopolitics, gold, oil, Power Equipment, volatility | - | Massif Capital argues geopolitics has shifted from exogenous shock to endogenous pricing variable, with geography now mattering more than geology in commodity markets. Q2's doubled volatility reflects this regime change, with Iranian diplomacy moving Norwegian energy stocks more than fundamentals and trade policy driving copper names more than drill results. Portfolio positioned for dispersion through critical minerals in allied jurisdictions and un-weaponizable real assets, deliberately taking single-node risks while avoiding financial overlays. |
| May 15 2026 | 2026 Q1 | AFM.L, AKRBP.OL, CHG.L, ENVX, EQNR, EQX.TO, HBR.L, LITM, LUN.TO, SCUD.V | Critical Minerals, defense, energy, geopolitics, Norway, oil, Tungsten | - | Massif Capital's 16% Q1 return reflects their geography-first commodity thesis, where geopolitical control matters more than cost curves. Norwegian energy and Portuguese tungsten exemplify Western-controlled supply chains benefiting from fragmentation. Oil positioned for structural premiums while critical minerals capitalize on defense spending and Chinese export restrictions. |
| Jan 16 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 1211.HK, BHP, ENVX, EQNR, EQX.TO, GLEN.L, GLO.TO, GMIN.V, Gold, HBR.L, KGHM, LITM, LRV.AX, LUN.TO, LYB, MGN.V, MMA.V, RIO, VALE, VAR.OL | commodities, Copper, energy, geopolitics, gold, inflation, Mining, real assets |
EQX CN GMIN CN VAR NO HBR LN EQNR NO MMA CN LUN CN LAR GLO CN |
Massif Capital delivered 50% net returns in 2025 through concentrated exposure to mining and energy. The manager argues markets are transitioning from post-2009 regime assumptions, requiring methodological adaptation to persistent inflation and geopolitical fragmentation. Portfolio emphasizes companies with mid-cycle economics over directional commodity bets, with plans to diversify into broader real-assets opportunities as mining valuations normalize. |
| Nov 3 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AFM.L, CHG.L, ENVX, EQNR, EQX.TO, GLO.TO, GMIN.TO, HBR.L, LITM, LUN.TO, MMA.V, NGEX.TO, NICU.V, VAR.L | Alpha Generation, Copper, Critical Minerals, European Energy, gold, Mining, Natural Gas, real assets | - | Massif Capital delivered 36.1% Q3 returns through superior stock selection in mining sectors, particularly copper and gold. The fund reduced gold exposure after strong gains while positioning for potential European natural gas disruptions. With metals becoming less attractive at current valuations, capital will likely shift toward infrastructure and industrials opportunities. |
| Jul 23 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 6368.T, AFM.L, AMPX, CHG.L, ENVX, EQNR, GKP.L, GLO.TO, HBR.L, MP, TSM, VAR.OL | Battery Technology, Critical Minerals, defense, energy, Europe, Mining, Natural Gas, semiconductors |
CHG LN 6368 JP ENVX ENVX |
Massif Capital delivered 16.5% YTD returns through concentrated exposure to critical minerals, European defense rearmament, and energy security themes. Portfolio benefits from structural supply constraints in tin and tungsten, rising EU defense spending, and European gas import dependency. Largest position Enovix leads battery technology innovation while energy holdings provide high dividend yields with significant capital appreciation potential. |
| May 1 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AFM.TO, EQNR, HBR.L, IE, VAR.L | China, Copper, Europe, geopolitics, Metals, Natural Gas, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | Massif Capital's real assets strategy is positioned for a world where geopolitical tensions and trade wars drive massive investment in natural resources and critical infrastructure. The portfolio benefits from European energy security needs through North Sea producers and navigates metals market disruptions from US-China trade conflicts. Recent volatility reflects the transition from globalization to resource nationalism. |
| Jan 22 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AFM.TO, BHP, COPX, ENR.DE, ENVX, EQX.TO, EXI, FILL, GDX, GDXJ, GEV, GMIN.TO, LAAC, PICK | commodities, Copper, energy, gold, Lithium, Metals, Mining, real assets | - | Massif Capital delivered 12.1% returns in 2024 led by Siemens Energy's 323% gain. Portfolio maintains exposure to mining and energy transition themes through lithium, gold, tin, and copper positions. Manager approaches 2025 cautiously given deteriorating market breadth and elevated valuations, focusing on industrials with strong balance sheets and counter-cyclical management capabilities. |
| Oct 29 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AFM.TO, ENR.DE, ENVX, EQX.TO, GEV, OCI | China, commodities, Energy Transition, Europe, Mining, real assets, volatility |
ENR.DE AFM.TO |
Massif Capital delivered strong Q3 performance through active management in real assets, avoiding Chinese market weakness while benefiting from energy transition themes. Siemens Energy and Alphamin remain key positions, though profit-taking is planned for the former. China's structural slowdown threatens commodity prices, making stock selection critical for navigating the challenging environment ahead. |
| Jul 23 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ENR.DE, ENVX, LAAC, LAC | Battery Technology, commodities, Energy Transition, Grid Infrastructure, inflation, Mining, real assets, Utilities | - | Massif Capital delivered 9.4% net returns in Q2 through concentrated real asset investments, led by Enovix battery technology and Siemens Energy grid infrastructure plays. The manager sees capital misallocation creating inflation risks while generating opportunities in undervalued real assets essential for energy transition and economic foundation, maintaining full investment with selective positioning despite elevated market valuations. |
| May 18 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AES, COPX, ENR.DE, ENVX, EQX.TO, LIT, OCI.AS, PLL | energy, Fertilizers, gold, materials, Mining, real assets | OCI.AS | Massif Capital returned 0.96% in Q1 2024, led by gold and energy positions. The fund capitalizes on fear-driven gold demand from central banks and retail buyers, maintaining 14% exposure. OCI fertilizer position trades below asset sale proceeds with substantial capital returns planned. Manager sees opportunity in public market discounts to replacement value for industrial assets. |
| May 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AKE.AX, ALB, GM, LAAC, LAC, LIT, LTHM, LTR.AX, MIN.AX, PLL, PLS.AX, SGML, SQM | Electric Vehicles, Energy Transition, Geopolitical, Lithium, Mining, Shorts |
LAAC KLAC |
Massif Capital reformed their short book process after challenging 2023 performance while maintaining conviction in lithium investments despite 75% price declines. Manager argues negative EV narratives are overblown and expects supply constraints to support lithium fundamentals. Portfolio positioned for energy transition opportunities with emphasis on business cases over environmental themes in quality assets trading at compelling valuations. |
| Oct 18 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AES, CTM.AX, EQX.TO | commodities, energy, materials, Mining, Nickel, oil, uranium, Utilities | CTM.AX | Massif Capital's concentrated real assets portfolio suffered -4.6% in Q3 from broad sector weakness despite positive stock selection. Uranium positions surged 67% while utilities and metals struggled with rate sensitivity and commodity price declines. Manager maintains conviction in long-term oil demand growth and uranium supply constraints, viewing current valuations as attractive despite near-term factor headwinds. |
| Jul 14 2023 | 2023 Q2 | ADT.AX, AES, AFM.TO, CTM.AX, EC, ENR.DE, EQNR, EQX, FLNC, IXR.AX, LAC, PICK, VALE | commodities, energy, materials, Mining, natural resources, real assets, Utilities |
AES CTM.AX ENR.DE |
Real assets manager down 4.33% YTD but maintains conviction in commodity scarcity thesis driven by supply chain regionalization. Portfolio concentrated in utilities, oil/gas, and metals with strong stock selection despite sector headwinds. Expects structural shift from globalization to supply security to drive infrastructure investment and strong commodity prices long-term. |
| Feb 5 2023 | 2023 Q1 | EQX.TO, LAC | China, commodities, Energy Transition, gold, Lithium, Metals, Mining, real assets |
KLAC EQX |
Massif Capital's real assets strategy focuses on company fundamentals over commodity timing, holding concentrated positions in lithium and gold miners. Despite Q1 challenges from short book performance, the manager sees structural supply deficits in metals markets driven by underinvestment and green transition demand creating favorable conditions ahead. |
| Jan 25 2023 | 2022 Q4 | AES, CGP CN, ENR GR, EQX, ORA, PIF CN | - | - | |
| Oct 20 2022 | 2022 Q3 | AES, EQX, PIF | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
Geopolitical RiskThe manager argues that geopolitics has shifted from an exogenous to an endogenous variable in investment models. States increasingly weaponize control over critical network nodes—from commodity chokepoints to AI models to power transformers—creating a zero-sum regime where interdependence amplifies coercion rather than defusing it. This structural shift drives increased dispersion in asset prices and rewards ownership of un-weaponizable real assets over financial overlays. |
Weaponized Interdependence Chokepoints Export Controls Supply Chain Sanctions |
Critical MineralsThe portfolio holds concentrated positions in tungsten, antimony, and other critical minerals where Western supply chains have fractured from Chinese sources due to export bans and dual-use controls. The manager views producers in credible allied jurisdictions as holding appreciating options into structural shortages, with pricing models calibrated to pre-ban levels systematically undervaluing the embedded optionality. |
Tungsten Antimony Export Bans Supply Security Allied Jurisdictions | |
CopperLundin Mining's stock fell sharply in June despite positive operational news including reserve confirmations, fiscal stability in Argentina, and enhanced production targets. The manager attributes the decline to sentiment-driven repricing rather than fundamental deterioration, noting that trade policy and geopolitical headlines moved the stock more than drill results or reserve filings. |
Lundin Mining Reserves Argentina Tariffs Sentiment | |
GoldGold fell 15% in Q2 with the worst monthly decline since October 2008, while Equinox Gold fell twice as much despite operational improvements including debt reduction, dividend initiation, and a transformative merger. The manager views the disconnect between fundamentals and price as sentiment-driven, with the market extrapolating negative moves as lasting verdicts on the business. |
Equinox Gold Gold Prices Merger Sentiment Dividend | |
OilThe Norwegian energy book experienced acute volatility as Brent crude round-tripped from $107 to sub-$80 on Iran-Hormuz escalation and ceasefire headlines. Var Energi, Aker BP, Equinor, and Harbour Energy fell 5-9% in single sessions on geopolitical headlines despite delivering record production, sanctioning major projects, and raising shareholder returns. The manager notes that geopolitical forecasting drove price action more than corporate fundamentals. |
Brent Crude Norway Hormuz Geopolitics Production | |
AIThe manager describes the June 2026 Commerce Department suspension of Anthropic's AI models as revealing that commercial AI services carry revocation risk that providers cannot remedy. This weaponization of the AI chokepoint is driving enterprise buyers toward open-weight models and sovereign infrastructure, paralleling the shift away from dollar reserves after 2022. The franchise has been questioned, and questioned franchises trade at different multiples. |
Export Controls Open-Weight Models Sovereignty Anthropic Revocation Risk | |
Power EquipmentThe US depends on imports for 80% of power transformer supply and 90% of large transformers, with lead times extending to 3-4 years driven by AI data center buildout. The manager views this as a geography-first regime operating on the importing side, where the US holds an AI chokepoint but is hostage to foreign suppliers of the transformers needed to energize the data centers that run those models. The shortage is structural and investable through copper exposure. |
Transformers Data Centers Supply Shortage Lead Times Copper | |
TinAlphamin Resources is on pace to produce $500 million in free cash flow on a $1 billion market cap, with Q1 EBITDA of $158 million on realized tin prices near $49,278 per tonne. The manager acknowledges the stock will never trade at fundamental value due to DRC location risk but argues some credit for management's decade-long track record is warranted, with estimated 2026 dividend yield exceeding 12%. |
Alphamin DRC Free Cash Flow Dividend Yield Tin Prices | |
| 2026 Q1 |
Critical MineralsManager views critical minerals as benefiting from defense procurement spending, Section 232 tariff momentum, and strategic mineral designation. Allied Critical Metals tungsten position exemplifies this thesis with 726% price gains driven by Chinese export restrictions and Western supply security concerns. |
Tungsten Defense Tariffs Supply Security Strategic |
OilManager expects structurally elevated oil prices due to geopolitical fragmentation, supply constraints, and the shift from geology-first to geography-first commodity pricing. Portfolio positioned for $83 probability-weighted Brent versus forward curve pricing of $68-72. |
Brent Geopolitics Supply Fragmentation Hormuz | |
SanctionsManager views sanctions architecture as creating permanent structural changes in commodity markets, with Russian shadow fleet operations and segmented oil markets becoming the new normal rather than temporary disruptions. |
Russia Shadow Fleet Segmentation Price Caps OFAC | |
Defense SpendingManager sees defense procurement as a key driver for critical minerals demand, with tungsten benefiting from Defense Production Act invocations and strategic stockpiling initiatives following Chinese export restrictions. |
Procurement Stockpiling DPA Strategic National Security | |
NorwayManager highlights Norway's unique fiscal regime that socializes downside while permitting full upside capture, making it the most operator-friendly high-tax regime globally. Norwegian positions contributed 12% of quarterly returns. |
Fiscal Regime Tax Upstream Continental Shelf Equinor | |
| 2025 Q4 |
ValueFund focuses on buying shares in decent operating businesses at significant discounts to intrinsic value. European value stocks had their largest outperformance versus growth stocks in 30 years, beating them by 19 percentage points. Manager believes value will continue to outperform growth during the remainder of this decade. |
Value Investing Discount Intrinsic Value P/E Ratios Deep Value |
InsuranceVienna Insurance Group was the best performing stock, generating 158% return in USD. NN Group generated 85% return despite trading at discount to book value. Both companies demonstrate strong capital allocation and market leadership positions in their respective regions. |
Life Insurance P&C Insurance Central Europe Capital Allocation Book Value | |
ShippingFund exited car carrier operating companies after generating exceptional 110% IRR over five years. Maintains exposure through Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding at 48% discount to NAV. Expects charter rates and vessel values to decline as new supply enters market. |
Car Carriers Shipping Cycles Asset Values Charter Rates Maritime | |
BiotechnologyNew investment in RTW Biotech based on belief that gene splicing and editing are the next big thing. Fund bought shares at 23% discount to NAV. Investment has appreciated over 69% and manager expects to hold for many years and make multiple of original investment. |
Gene Editing Biotech Funds M&A Activity China Innovation Patent Cliff | |
SteelDanieli specializes in manufacturing steel plants and producing specialist steels. European Commission proposals to safeguard European steel production led to surge in demand for energy efficient and hydrogen-ready steel plants. Company has elevated order book and increasing profitability. |
Steel Plants Carbon Costs Energy Efficiency Hydrogen Ready Order Book | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldGold is overbought but not over owned, with government debt levels supporting continued allocation to gold miners. The fund reduced exposure after strong performance, exiting GMIN while maintaining EQX position. High dispersion in gold miner results creates attractive opportunities for active management. |
Gold Miners Precious Metals Inflation Hedge Government Debt Mining |
CopperCopper positions have significantly outperformed the metal and producers, with four core holdings delivering strong returns. The portfolio's copper exposure represents 18% and has generated substantial portfolio-level returns through focused stock selection. |
Copper Miners Base Metals Industrial Metals Mining Critical Minerals | |
Natural GasEuropean natural gas presents attractive risk-reward opportunities given concerns about LNG supply chain reliability, weather patterns, and low storage levels. The fund holds positions in European E&P companies with high dividend yields as options on potential supply disruptions. |
Natural Gas LNG European Energy Weather Risk Energy Security | |
Critical MineralsPortfolio includes exposure to lithium, tungsten, antimony, uranium, and tin through various positions. These metals are viewed as essential for energy transition and industrial applications, with some positions delivering exceptional returns despite sector-specific challenges. |
Lithium Uranium Tungsten Antimony Battery Metals | |
MiningMining exposure dominates the portfolio with strong performance across metals categories. The fund focuses on management quality and project fundamentals rather than commodity speculation, generating consistent returns through active stock selection in high-dispersion sectors. |
Mining Services Junior Miners Resource Development Exploration Production | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Critical MineralsPortfolio heavily invested in tin and tungsten mining companies due to supply constraints and growing demand. Alphamin dominates tin production with strong margins while tungsten faces extreme geographic concentration with China controlling 80% of global production. Both metals are essential for defense, aerospace, and electronics applications with limited alternative suppliers. |
Tin Tungsten Supply Chain Defense Mining |
Defense SpendingInvestment in Chemring, a UK defense contractor specializing in energetics and electronic warfare equipment. EU defense spending set to rise by over €100 billion by 2027 with UK targeting 2.5% of GDP. Chemring holds duopoly position in European advanced high explosives market alongside France's Eurenco. |
Defense Explosives Electronic Warfare Europe Rearmament | |
Battery Supply ChainEnovix represents largest portfolio position at 14% with silicon anode battery technology achieving 900WH/L energy density. Company released AI-1 platform for smartphone batteries with fast charging capabilities. Position built over two years with probability-weighted target of $27 per share. |
Silicon Anode Energy Density Smartphones Fast Charging Battery Technology | |
Natural GasEuropean natural gas market faces structural transformation with continued reliance on LNG imports amid declining domestic production. Europe developing 248.7 bcm/y of new LNG import capacity and 16,491 km of new gas transmission pipelines. Natural gas remains essential for grid stability as renewable energy intermittency creates backup power needs. |
LNG Europe Grid Stability Infrastructure Energy Security | |
Energy TransitionEuropean renewable energy share fell to 42.5% from 46.8% year-over-year, marking first notable decline. Wind and hydroelectric power experienced sharp declines while battery storage needs to increase from 35 GWh to 780 GWh by 2030. Natural gas turbine orders show extended delivery timelines through 2028-2030. |
Renewables Intermittency Battery Storage Grid Europe | |
WaterOrgano operates in ultra-pure water equipment triopoly serving semiconductor manufacturing. Company is sole supplier of water purification equipment for TSMC. Ultra-pure water requires impurities in Olympic swimming pool to be less than a teaspoon, essential for semiconductor fabrication processes. |
Ultra-Pure Water Semiconductors TSMC Purification Manufacturing | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe escalating trade war between major economic powers has triggered seismic shifts in global industrial metals markets, with US-China tensions disrupting traditional trade pathways and forcing industries to reconfigure sourcing strategies. The Trump administration's use of tariffs and trade as tools of government statecraft represents a rapid unwinding of complex interdependency systems. These policies risk replaying disastrous economic policies similar to Latin America's import substitution experiments that led to protected economies, rampant inflation, and poverty. |
Tariffs China Import Substitution Supply Chains Protectionism |
Natural GasEuropean natural gas markets face structural changes as the continent relies heavily on imports, with 36% coming from Norway and the UK after losing Russian pipeline gas. The marginal cost is set by imported LNG, creating favorable conditions for regional producers like Var, Equinor, and Harbour Energy who can produce at well below $20 per barrel equivalent. US-China trade tensions have created a ceiling on EU natural gas prices as Chinese buyers avoid US LNG due to 99% import duties. |
LNG Europe Norway Pipeline Import Duties | |
CopperCopper markets are experiencing unprecedented disruption from the US-China trade war, with China's 34% tariff on US copper scrap severing critical supply chains and forcing market participants to adapt rapidly. The geographic arbitrage has created artificial shortages, with US buyers stockpiling ahead of tariffs while Chinese inventories could be depleted by mid-June. The market's center of gravity is shifting from Shanghai to a bifurcated system defined by geopolitical alignment rather than efficiency. |
Scrap Smelters Stockpiling Treatment Charges Arbitrage | |
GoldGold positioning was recently reduced from 25% to 12% of the portfolio after taking advantage of recent gains. The manager expects gold to continue moving higher until central banks stop buying, geopolitical risk eases, and the dollar stabilizes. The metal benefits from ongoing central bank purchases and elevated geopolitical tensions. |
Central Banks Geopolitical Risk Dollar Portfolio Allocation | |
SteelThe US reinstated and expanded Section 232 tariffs on steel to 25% with no exemptions, triggering immediate retaliation from the EU with counter-tariffs on $28 billion worth of US goods. These measures have distorted trade flows, with US steel imports rising 11.4% in March as buyers stockpiled ahead of stricter measures, though the long-term outlook remains bleak with global crude steel production forecasts revised downward. |
Section 232 Tariffs Stockpiling Production Forecasts Retaliation | |
AluminumAluminum markets face severe challenges with US tariffs rising from 10% to 25% and EU sanctions on Russian aluminum tightening supply. LME prices hit $3,083 per metric ton in March 2025, a 22% increase year-to-date, driven by speculative stockpiling and EV sector demand. China's production cap has shifted expansion projects to Indonesia and India, while rising energy costs and carbon tariffs in Europe threaten to keep premiums elevated. |
Tariffs Russian Sanctions Production Cap Energy Costs Carbon Tariffs | |
| 2024 Q4 |
LithiumLAAC position suffered 4.6% drawdown in 2024 despite strong operational progress. Management announced 2024 production of 25kt and 2025 guidance of 30-35kt. Updated technical report shows long-term operating costs of $6.5/kg, implying NAV of $3.6 billion versus current market cap of $486 million. |
Lithium Battery Metals Mining EV Production |
Energy TransitionSiemens Energy delivered 323% returns as prime portfolio mover. Strong order intake in Gas Services, Grid Technologies, and Transformation of Industry segments. Revenue grew 10.8% to EUR 34.5bn with robust order backlog of EUR 123bn. |
Grid Energy Infrastructure Renewables Power Equipment Transformation | |
Gold14% portfolio allocation to two gold names with equal position sizes. EQX turned on Greenstone mine, one of Canada's largest lowest-cost gold mines. GMIN entered commercial production at Tocantinzinho mine in Brazil with experienced mine-building management team. |
Gold Mining Production Canada Brazil | |
TinAlphamin continues strong performance with 122% LTM EPS growth and 10.9% dividend yield. Operates world's highest-grade tin mine with long life and strong management. Global tin market remains tight with thin pipeline of new projects. |
Tin Mining Dividends DRC Supply | |
Battery Supply ChainENVX completed site acceptance testing for high-volume production line at Fab-2. Announced prepaid purchase order from Silicon Valley technology leader for mixed reality wearables. EX-2M samples demonstrate +10% energy density improvement over EX-1M batteries. |
Batteries Manufacturing Technology Energy Density Production | |
Copper10% portfolio allocation to copper miners, heavily tilted toward developers building next tier-one assets. LME copper prices started 2024 at $8,430 but rally lost steam due to weak Chinese demand. Supply struggles from falling ore grades and regulatory constraints. |
Copper Mining China Supply Demand | |
| 2024 Q3 |
ChinaChina's economic growth model is at an inflection point due to unsustainable credit expansion, inefficient financial allocation, and mounting fiscal pressures. The manager expects this growth overhang to weigh on commodity prices and the real asset ecosystem for the next 12 to 18 months. |
Credit Property Infrastructure Slowdown Commodities |
Energy TransitionSiemens Energy represents the largest portfolio position at 11.5%, benefiting from European grid modernization and clean energy investments. The Draghi plan calls for €450 billion in clean energy and electric mobility investments to address Europe's energy cost disadvantage. |
Grid Renewable Infrastructure Europe Competitiveness | |
Critical MineralsAlphamin operates the highest-grade tin mine globally in the Democratic Republic of Congo, producing strong returns despite location concerns. The manager views tin as a forgotten but critical commodity that serves as the glue keeping electronics together. |
Tin Mining Electronics Africa Supply | |
VolatilityThe fund maintains a tail risk hedge that generated 2.1% portfolio return in Q3 during volatility spikes. With the US election approaching and various catalysts in early November, the manager sees potential for continued volatility monetization opportunities. |
Hedge Election VIX Insurance Risk | |
| 2024 Q2 |
InflationDespite Federal Reserve rate hikes, inflation remains stubbornly high in certain sectors with elevated consumer expectations. Structural inflationary pressures persist in shipping costs, copper prices, and other commodities due to supply constraints and capacity limitations. |
Shipping Copper Supply Chain Commodities Consumer Expectations |
Energy TransitionReal asset ecosystem investments are critical for supporting AI infrastructure, grid modernization, and renewable energy deployment. Capital misallocation away from real assets toward financial speculation threatens the foundation needed for energy transition. |
Grid Infrastructure Renewable Energy AI Energy Capital Allocation Real Assets | |
Grid UpgradeSiemens Energy benefits from massive grid infrastructure investment needs across Europe and the US. Planned transmission infrastructure investments could double between 2026 and 2030, with Siemens positioned as the world's largest supplier of grid solutions. |
Transmission Grid Solutions Infrastructure Investment Power Transformers Grid Modernization | |
Battery Supply ChainEnovix represents the evolution of battery technology through advanced materials science and silicon anode development. The company's success depends on scaling unique battery production with superior energy density and safety properties. |
Silicon Anode Energy Density Materials Science Battery Manufacturing Energy Storage | |
LithiumLithium prices continued declining despite long-term EV demand fundamentals. Chinese EV dominance and global expansion suggest sustained lithium demand, with quality assets like Lithium Argentina's Cauchari mine trading below intrinsic value. |
EV Demand Chinese EVs Lithium Prices Mining Assets Battery Metals | |
Risk AppetiteMarket risk appetite remains elevated with stocks at all-time highs and narrow credit spreads, suggesting excess liquidity has been misallocated into financial bubbles rather than productivity-enhancing real asset investments. |
Market Valuation Credit Spreads Financial Bubbles Capital Misallocation Market Sentiment | |
| 2024 Q1 |
GoldGold has rallied 25% since October 2023 despite traditional models suggesting otherwise, driven by fear-based buying from central banks, Asian retail, and US retail rather than wealth-driven consumption. Central banks have accelerated gold accumulation due to USD system concerns and geopolitical instability. The manager expects continued bullish momentum given low probability of fear-reducing events. |
Central Banks Physical Fear Geopolitics USD |
FertilizersOCI represents a 6% position focused on the 3 Fs of fuel, food, and feedstock as the world's largest nitrogen fertilizer exporter. The company announced $6.2 billion in asset sales and plans substantial capital returns to shareholders. Management expects to return approximately €12 per share in 2024 while maintaining valuable remaining assets. |
Nitrogen Asset Sales Capital Return Food Security | |
| 2023 Q4 |
LithiumManager maintains concentrated positions in Lithium Argentina and Lithium America despite 75-80% spot price decline in 2023. Views current market as creating compelling value opportunities with supply-demand fundamentals supporting medium-term outlook. Expects Chinese lepidolite production challenges and African logistics issues to constrain supply growth. |
Battery Metals Mining Supply Chain China Argentina |
Electric VehiclesManager challenges negative EV adoption narrative, noting global EV sales up 18% in Q3 2023 despite US slowdown headlines. Believes EVs are fit for purpose for suburban demographics and specific use cases, with version 1.0 technology becoming commonplace for targeted applications rather than universal adoption. |
Transportation Battery Demand Adoption Technology Suburbs | |
Energy TransitionManager clarifies investment philosophy on renewables and EVs, emphasizing business case over environmental narrative. Argues that wind, solar, and EVs must deliver energy services better than alternatives in specific use cases. Criticizes both boosters and detractors for missing nuanced application-specific advantages. |
Renewables Solar Wind Decarbonization Use Cases | |
| 2023 Q3 |
OilManager argues oil demand will continue growing for decades despite renewable investments, driven by developing world consumption growth. Current global oil demand hits new highs even during economic weakness. Developing world consumes 3 barrels per capita annually versus 15 in developed world, creating massive demand potential. |
Oil Energy Demand Developing Markets Hydrocarbons |
UraniumUranium positions rallied 67% during quarter, contributing 1.97% to portfolio returns. Manager expects continued price appreciation as decommissioning pace slows and supply situation remains constrained. Current price levels may not justify new mine development without further increases. |
Uranium Nuclear Supply Mining Energy | |
NickelNickel investment in Centaurus Metals proving painful, representing nearly 5% portfolio loss. Market fragmentation between Class-1 and Class-2 nickel creates opportunities for high-quality sulfide deposits. Indonesian oversupply pressuring prices but carbon-neutral production advantages expected to emerge. |
Nickel Battery Metals Mining Carbon Indonesia | |
UtilitiesUtility exposure suffered from elevated interest rates, with AES down 47% year-to-date. Manager attributes sell-off entirely to interest rate environment. Stock trading at significant discount to peers and historical multiples, presenting potential value opportunity. |
Utilities Interest Rates Valuation Dividends AES | |
| 2023 Q2 |
Energy TransitionManager views energy transition as requiring massive investment in renewable assets while maintaining hydrocarbon infrastructure. Believes oil and gas remain critical for supporting economic growth needed to fund transition to low-carbon economy. Sees environmental and economic sustainability as interconnected. |
Renewable Energy Hydrocarbons Low Carbon Climate Sustainability |
OnshoringManager describes shift from globalization to what they call 'Globalization 2.0' - a reworking of trade flows toward more dependable supply chains. Expects transition from cheap global supply chains to interior value chains within friendly nations, creating upfront infrastructure costs but improved supply security. |
Supply Chains Trade Flows Interior Lines Deglobalization Security | |
CommoditiesManager expects commodity scarcity to become the new normal due to geopolitical shifts and supply chain restructuring. Believes rising investment and marginal production costs will drive strong commodity prices, especially in metals, as nations develop more homegrown resources. |
Scarcity Supply Security Inflation Metals Production | |
UtilitiesPortfolio holds 11.4% in utilities through AES and Polaris Renewable Energy. AES significantly underperformed despite strong fundamentals and renewable pipeline. Polaris showed strong growth with 25% revenue increase and 88% net income growth, driven by asset expansions and acquisitions. |
Independent Power Producers Renewable Developers Regulated Utilities | |
OilManager maintains bullish long-term view on oil despite tactical position sizing adjustments. Expects oil exposure to yield over 10% in dividends alone. Views current underinvestment in oil assets as unsustainable given society's inability to rapidly scale alternatives. |
Exploration & Production Dividends Energy Security | |
CopperManager initiated positions in two copper-focused junior miners during the quarter. Copper prices were volatile, finishing Q2 down 2.7% YTD. Portfolio building continues in copper positions not yet discussed in detail. |
Copper Miners Junior Miners Battery Metals | |
| 2023 Q1 |
LithiumMassif holds Lithium Americas as a top position with multiple catalysts including Cauchari-Olaroz production ramp and Thacker Pass construction. The company is splitting into separate North American and Argentine entities, creating potential takeover targets. Geopolitical concerns exist around Chinese influence in the Lithium Triangle region. |
Battery Metals Critical Minerals Energy Transition Geopolitical Risk Mining Development |
Gold MinersEquinox Gold was the best performer in Q1, up 57%, though driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals. The manager acknowledges a portfolio management mistake in not trimming the position at its 2020 peak. Gold miners face margin compression from inflationary pressures on inputs like diesel and explosives. |
Gold Mining Margin Compression Sentiment Portfolio Management | |
CopperGoldman Sachs research shows copper markets remain in deficit even under recession scenarios due to structural supply constraints and growing green demand. Green copper demand has grown from 4% of world demand in 2020 to 8% in 2023, with China driving much of this growth through industrial policy. |
Industrial Metals Supply Deficit Green Demand China Infrastructure | |
Energy TransitionThe energy transition is creating structural demand for metals like copper and aluminum, with green demand representing an increasing share of total consumption. This demand is being driven by policies like RePowerEU and the Inflation Reduction Act, diversifying demand drivers beyond China. |
Green Technology Industrial Policy Renewable Energy Battery Supply Chain Infrastructure Spending | |
ChinaChina is demonstrating strong green demand growth that offset property sector weakness in copper markets. Chinese policies are driving 58% of copper demand growth and 65% of aluminum demand growth in 2023. China is also aggressively securing lithium assets globally, particularly in South America and Africa. |
Geopolitical Risk Industrial Policy Resource Security Green Demand Commodity Demand |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | - | Allied Critical Metals | Other | Diversified Metals & Mining | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Critical Minerals, Defense, Equity, geopolitical risk, Mining Development, Portugal, strategic materials, supply chain, Tungsten, Western Supply | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | EQX CN | Equinox Gold Corp. | Materials | Gold | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, deleveraging, dividends, Freecashflow, Gold | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | GMIN CN | G Mining Ventures Corp. | Materials | Gold | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Beta, construction, Discipline, Executionrisk, Gold | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | VAR NO | Vår Energi ASA | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | dividends, Freecashflow, oil, Production, resilience | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | HBR LN | Harbour Energy plc | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Acquisitions, Balancesheet, Discipline, Freecashflow, oil | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | EQNR NO | Equinor ASA | Energy | Integrated Oil & Gas | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Balancesheet, cashflow, Integratedenergy, Offshore, stability | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | MMA CN | Midnight Sun Mining Corp. | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Copper, Dilution, Exploration, Optionality, Partnerships | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | LUN CN | Lundin Mining Corporation | Materials | Copper | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capitalallocation, Copper, Electrification, Reserves, Scarcity | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | LAR | Lithium Argentina AG | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Brines, Elections, Governance, Lithium, Scarcity | Login |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | GLO CN | Global Atomic Corporation | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | construction, Geopolitics, Permitting, Scarcity, uranium | Login |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | CHG LN | Chemring Group PLC | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Budgets, Defense, duopoly, Energetics, Pricingpower, Rearmament | Login |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | 6368 JP | Organo Corporation | Industrials | Machinery | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Fabs, Purification, semiconductors, Triopoly, valuation, Water | Login |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Will Thomson | ENVX | Enovix Corporation | Industrials | Electrical Components & Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Batteries, Energy-Density, growth, innovation, Shortsqueeze, Silicon-Anode | Login |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | ENVX | Enovix Corporation | Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | NASDAQ | battery technology, Energy-Density, Fast Charging, growth, Short squeeze, Silicon-Anode, Smartphone, technology | Login |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | ENR.DE | Siemens Energy AG | Industrials | Electrical Equipment | Neutral | XETRA | electrical equipment, energy equipment, Europe, Gas turbines, Grid Infrastructure, profit-taking, renewable energy, Service revenue, valuation multiple, Wind Turbines | Login |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | AFM.TO | Alphamin Resources Corp | Materials | Diversified Metals & Mining | Bull | TSX | Africa, commodity, dividend yield, DRC, electronics, High-Grade Mine, jurisdiction risk, Mining Operations, tin mining, Value | Login |
| May 3, 2024 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | OCI.AS | OCI N.V. | Materials | Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | Bull | Euronext Amsterdam | activist investor, Ammonia, Asset Sale, capital return, EBITDA multiple, Europe, Family Business, Fertilizer, MENA, Nitrogen, Special dividend, Sum-of-parts, Value | Login |
| Jul 14, 2023 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | AES | AES Corporation | Utilities | Electric Utilities | Bull | NYSE | contrarian, Electric Power, energy storage, regulated utility, renewable energy, South America, US, utilities, Value | Login |
| Jul 14, 2023 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | - | Polaris Renewable Energy Inc | Utilities | Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers | Bull | TSX | consolidation, dividend, Geothermal, growth, Hydro, Independent Power Producer, Latin America, renewable energy, Solar | Login |
| Jul 14, 2023 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | CTM.AX | Centaurus Metals Limited | Materials | Diversified Metals & Mining | Bull | ASX | Battery metals, Brazil, development, Junior Miner, Mining, Nickel, Offtake, Open Pit, Sulfide, Value | Login |
| Jul 14, 2023 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | ENR.DE | Siemens Energy AG | Industrials | Electrical Equipment | Bull | XETRA | backlog, contrarian, energy infrastructure, Germany, Industrials, Quality Issues, renewable energy, Turbines, Wind Energy | Login |
| May 2, 2023 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | KLAC | Lithium Americas | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | NYSE | Argentina, battery materials, development, Electric Vehicles, Government Financing, Lithium, Mining, Nevada, Production Ramp, strategic separation, takeover target | Login |
| May 2, 2023 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | EQX | Equinox Gold | Materials | Gold | Bull | NYSE American | Canada, development, gold mining, Greenstone Mine, high-beta, Portfolio Management, Production Ramp, Sentiment Driven | Login |
| Feb 5, 2024 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | LAAC | Lithium Argentina | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | NASDAQ | Argentina, battery materials, Brine, Lithium, Mining, Production Ramp, Value | Login |
| Feb 5, 2024 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | KLAC | Lithium Americas | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | NYSE | Clay Deposit, development, GM Partnership, Lithium, Mining, Nevada, North America | Login |
| Oct 18, 2023 | Fund Letters | Massif Capital | CTM.AX | Centaurus Metals | Materials | Diversified Metals & Mining | Bull | ASX | Australia, Battery metals, Brazil, Electric Vehicles, Equity, ESG, Low-Carbon, Mining, Nickel, Sulfide Deposit | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| LUNMF | Lundin Mining fell 12.6% on June 8 with no stated catalyst, then a further 7% on June 23, all while the news flow ran the other way. The company closed an additional purchase of 5% of Caserones and a 30.9% stake in Los Helados for $215 million, reported Q1 free cash flow of $380 million on 80,000 tonnes of copper production, and on June 22 filed NI 43-101 technical reports confirming a 2.3-billion-tonne combined reserve base across Candelaria, Caserones, and Chapada, building on enhanced fiscal-stability status Argentina had already granted the Vicuña project under its RIGI regime, which the country's economy minister called the largest mining project in Argentina's history. A Capital Markets Day added targets of more than 500,000 tonnes of copper and 550,000 ounces of gold annually. None of it moved the stock until June 30, when Lundin rose 2% on Commerce Secretary Lutnick's recommendation of a 15% refined copper tariff from 2027. |
| EQX.TO | Equinox Gold showed the same pattern in a more extreme form: the stock fell 34% during the second quarter and 22% in June alone, yet the underlying business improved on nearly every dimension. Q1 production came in at 197,628 ounces, debt fell from $1.15 billion to $252 million on an asset sale, and the company declared its inaugural dividend and announced a definitive all-stock merger with Orla Mining on May 13 that would create an approximately $18.5 billion North American senior producer targeting 1.1 million of 2026 production, and 1.9 million in 2027. The stock fell 8% on June 10 as gold itself dropped 3.5% to $4,136 an ounce, and another 4.7% on June 23; on June 25, Equinox signed 20-year land-access agreements with all three communities surrounding its Los Filos mine, ending a 14-month suspension and clearing the way for a restart that will produce 280,000 ounces of gold a year for 15 years, though production guidance already excludes any contribution from it, leaving that upside for whenever the market decides to notice it. |
| VAR.OL | Var Energi fell 6.9% on June 12, with both down a further 5-8% on June 16. Var Energi posted record Q1 production of 406 kboepd (+51% year over year), sanctioned $300 million dividends for both Q1 and Q2, took final investment decision on Balder Next New Wells and the NOK 14 billion Gjøa subsea project, and sold stakes in Goliat and Fenja to PKN Orlen for up to $350 million. |
| AKRBP.OL | Aker BP fell 5.7% on June 12, with both down a further 5-8% on June 16. Aker BP's Q1 EBITDA came in at $2.66 billion on 97% operational efficiency, with Symra field reaching first oil nine months ahead of schedule; the company agreed a development concept for Ringvei Vest and swapped assets with Equinor in May, picking up 19% of that project and a UK license stake. |
| EQNR | Equinor's June 12 decline of 7.8% came the same day OPEC issued its second consecutive demand-growth downgrade; its 6.4% decline on June 16 coincided with a Capital Markets Day that doubled the 2026 buyback to $3 billion, raised its dividend-growth framework, and scrapped the 2030 renewables target, shareholder-friendly news overwhelmed by a 4.9% fall in Brent that day. Equinor delivered record production of 2.3 million boe/d and adjusted operating income of $9.77 billion in Q1, though cash flow missed consensus on elevated trading-collateral requirements. |
| HBR.L | Harbour Energy tracked Brent almost tick for tick, falling 4.3% on June 12 and drifting lower through month-end as crude settled near $72-75. Harbour Energy raised full-year production guidance to 480,000-500,000 boepd, won a tax dispute over the Waldorf acquisition, and closed a $215 million sale of its Indonesian assets in late May. |
| AFM.TO | Alphamin Resources reported record Q1 EBITDA of $158 million on realized tin prices of $49,278 a tonne, paid a C$0.13-per-share final dividend on June 5, and spent the back half of June trading with tin, down 6% on June 24 and up 5.6% two days later as tin held near $50,000 a ton. Meanwhile, the stock, which we fully understand will never trade at its proper fundamental value as it is a single asset firm in the Democratic Republic of Congo and if there is anything market participants don't understand it is Africa related risks, is on pace this year, in our estimation, to produce $500 million in free cash flow on a market capitalization in USD of roughly $1 billion. Between Ebola, M23 rebels, and the general high level of ignorance of Africa in general, let alone specific locations in Africa, AFM should trade at a discount fundamental value, but these are not new risks, they are the risks the firm has managed successfully for a decade. Some credit for that track record and the operational acumen of management is warranted. While the market catches up with reality, we will need to be satisfied with this year's dividend, which we estimate will be greater than 12%. |
| CHG.L | Chemring's H1 results on June 2 showed revenue up 6.5-7% to £237.3 million and a record £1.40 billion order book, but underlying operating profit fell 7.5-8% to £24.5 million on a £6.7-8.3 million impairment tied to declining US Department of Defense demand for its Alloy Surfaces decoy flairs; the shares fell 5-7% on the print and the company paused its buyback with only £8.7 million of a planned £40 million completed. That reversed entirely on June 25, when the US Department of War awarded the Alloy Surfaces subsidiary $345 million in new contracts, moving the unit back from discontinued to continuing operations. |
| ENVX | Enovix fell in three separate steps through June: 12.9% on June 7 when an outside investor exited its position citing the departure of a manufacturing-process lead ahead of a product launch, a further 9.2% on June 10 as investors read a soft Q2 revenue guide as limited visibility into its smartphone-battery qualification with Honor, and 10.2% on June 23 in a broad Nasdaq semiconductor selloff; the company's own Q1 disclosure had already flagged that Honor's qualification process was taking longer than anticipated. |
| GLO.TO | Global Atomic is building Africa's highest-grade uranium deposit at Dasa, in a Niger whose junta has since the 2023 coup revoked Orano's Imouraren permit (legally in our opinion), withdrawn GoviEx's license (they withdrew it early but GoviEx could not have met the requirements necessary to maintain in the time available), and nationalized the Somair mine, leaving Dasa the last un-expropriated foreign uranium asset in the country. |
| ACMCF | Allied Critical Metals is advancing two tungsten projects in northern Portugal, inside the EU's critical-raw-materials perimeter, into a Western tungsten market that fractured from China's after Beijing added the metal to its dual-use export-control list in February 2025, and that a US ban on Chinese-mined tungsten in defense procurement will wall off further starting in January 2027. Producers who sourced from China describe the fracture as immediate rather than gradual: Beijing's licensing regime amounted to a near-total stop on tungsten-ore exports, and buyers who had built supply chains around Chinese material spent the following months scrambling for Western alternatives. Allied Critical Metals illustrates the embedded optionality directly: its April 2026 preliminary economic assessment on the Borralha project returns an after-tax net present value near C$473 million and a 48.8% internal rate of return on a tungsten price deck around US$1,000 per metric tonne unit, struck at roughly a third of a mid-2026 ex-China spot above US$3,000. |
| LRV.AX | Larvotto is bringing the Hillgrove antimony mine in New South Wales into production in a market China banned outright in December 2024, with offtake already secured to Wogen and Glencore rather than to a Chinese converter. |
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