| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | -4% |
Tim McElvaine's fund declined 4.0% in the first half of 2025 but recovered to approximately 3% YTD by August. The manager maintains his value-focused approach, avoiding AI infrastructure excitement and sticking with what he calls the 'dregs of value.' The portfolio consists of 12 holdings trading at significant discounts to net asset value, with strong balance sheets, low leverage, and meaningful insider ownership. Key positions include energy royalties (PrairieSky), diversified conglomerates (Jardine Matheson), and specialty situations (AIMIA, Howard Hughes). McElvaine draws parallels to the post-dotcom period, expressing skepticism about current AI spending efficiency. The manager emphasizes that each holding is worth more today than six months ago despite market underperformance. Portfolio implications include maintaining defensive positioning while waiting for value realization. Forward catalysts include corporate simplifications, asset dispositions, and management changes across several holdings. The approach prioritizes patient capital deployment in companies with aligned owner-operators.
Focus on undervalued companies with strong balance sheets, low leverage, significant insider ownership, and trading at large discounts to intrinsic value, while avoiding the AI infrastructure spending frenzy.
Manager expresses confidence in portfolio positioning despite acknowledging that waiting is painful. Takes comfort in strong company financials, inexpensive share prices, and aligned management teams with skin in the game.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AIM.TO, CFP.TO, FIH.TO, GUD.TO, HHH, J36.SI, M04.L, MXG.TO, ONEX.TO, PSK.TO, WINT, XCO | Canada, discount, energy, NAV, private equity, small cap, value |
PSK CN FIH CN HHH CFP CN ONEX CN AIM CN MPX CN GUD CN |
McElvaine maintains disciplined value approach amid AI market frenzy, holding 12 undervalued companies with strong balance sheets and insider alignment. Portfolio includes energy royalties, conglomerates, and specialty situations trading at significant NAV discounts. Despite first-half underperformance, manager expresses confidence in positioning and multiple catalysts for value realization across holdings. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | CFP.TO, ECO.TO, FFI.TO, GUD.TO, JMHLY, MDOHY, MXGP.TO, ONEX.TO, PSK.TO, SEG, WBD | Buybacks, Canada, Concentration, energy, royalties, value | - | McElvaine Value Fund returned 19.2% in 2024 through concentrated value investing in undervalued companies with strong balance sheets. Maxim Power and PrairieSky Royalty drove performance while mistakes like Warner Bros Discovery were eliminated. The fund maintains 13% cash and focuses on anti-fragile companies with aligned management rather than macro forecasting. |
| Aug 27 2024 | 2024 Q2 | CKHUY, FFH.TO, JMHLY, MDORF, MXG.TO, ONEX.TO, PSK.TO, SEG, XCO | Canada, contrarian, dividends, Natural Gas, royalties, small caps, value |
MXG.TO XCO MOIL.L ONEX.TO PSK.TO SEG |
McElvaine Value Fund's contrarian strategy targets orphans and misfits trading at deep discounts. Despite H1 underperformance, the manager maintains conviction in holdings like natural gas assets, luxury hotels, and holding companies bought at 50 cents on the dollar. Focus remains on patient value investing with aligned management partners. |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | 0001.HK, BLCO, FIH.TO, J36.SI, MXG.TO, ONEX.TO, PSK.TO, WBD, XCO | Canada, Concentration, discount, Intrinsic Value, small caps, value | - | McElvaine Value Fund returned 3.0% in 2023, underperforming benchmarks but maintaining concentrated positions in undervalued companies. The fund's ABBA framework targets 50-cent dollars with strong management alignment. Current holdings trade at significant discounts to estimated intrinsic values, particularly in small caps where carrying values are well below fair value, positioning for future outperformance. |
| Aug 23 2023 | 2023 Q2 | 1.HK, BLCO, MXG.TO, ONEX.TO, PSK.TO, WBD | Canada, Cautious, Hedge, small cap, value | - | McElvaine Value Fund posted solid 5.1% first-half returns while maintaining concentrated positions in undervalued holdings. Key portfolio companies showed operational progress including Maxim Power's gas expansion and PrairieSky's strong royalty performance. Despite confidence in individual holdings, the manager established modest macro hedges in July, citing caution around current market valuation, liquidity and sentiment conditions. |
| Dec 31 2022 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | BLCO, MXG CN | - | - | |
| Dec 31 2021 | 2021 Q4 | 2728 HK, GUD CN, JEF, MXG CN, TOU CN | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2021 | 2021 Q2 | GUD CN, JEF, MXG CN, TOU CN | - | - | |
| Dec 31 2020 | 2020 Q4 | 1 HK, 2728 HK, JEF, MXG CN, TOU CN, WCP CN | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2020 | 2020 Q2 | GUD CN, JEF, MXG CN, TOU CN | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q2 |
ValueManager emphasizes sticking with the 'dregs of value' approach, focusing on cheap reasonably financed companies with aligned owner/operators. All holdings are trading at significant discounts to NAV with strong balance sheets and insider ownership. |
Discount NAV Undervalued Cheap ABBA |
EnergyPortfolio includes significant exposure to energy through PrairieSky Royalties (oil and gas royalties), Exco Resources (natural gas exploration), and Maxim Power (power generation). These positions benefit from energy market dynamics and cash generation. |
Oil Gas Royalties Power Energy | |
Private EquityHoldings include Onex Corporation (private equity firm) and AIMIA (permanent capital company). These provide exposure to alternative investment strategies and capital allocation expertise. |
Private Equity Capital Allocation Alternative Investments | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueThe fund focuses on finding 50 cent dollars by investing in companies selling below intrinsic value. The manager emphasizes creating a margin of safety when Homer Simpson-like market pricing creates opportunities versus Mr. Spock-like intrinsic value determinations. The approach centers on bargain hunting rather than macro forecasting. |
Intrinsic Value Margin of Safety Bargains Undervalued Discount |
EnergySignificant exposure through PrairieSky Royalty (oil royalties with 18 million acres), Maxim Power (power generation with strong balance sheet), and Exco Resources (controlled by Fairfax Financial with skilled management). The manager values companies with strong balance sheets and staying power in volatile commodity environments. |
Oil Natural Gas Power Generation Royalties Commodities | |
ResilienceThe manager seeks anti-fragile companies that can exit crises stronger than they entered, similar to Shane Parrish's concept of positioning with cash and low debt providing good options. Portfolio companies are selected for their ability to withstand volatility and maintain competitive advantages through cycles. |
Anti-fragile Balance Sheet Staying Power Crisis Defensive | |
BuybacksMultiple holdings actively repurchasing shares including ONEX (retired 8% in 2024, 30% over 5 years) and Knight Therapeutics (retired over 1/3 of shares in 5 years at attractive prices). The manager views disciplined capital allocation and share repurchases as value-creating activities. |
Share Repurchases Capital Allocation Shareholder Returns Value Creation | |
| 2024 Q2 |
ValueManager focuses on buying discounted assets at 50 cents on the dollar, particularly holding companies trading below net asset value. Portfolio consists of orphans and misfits bought when others were selling, with emphasis on finding cheap stocks with aligned owners. |
Discount NAV Contrarian Undervalued Orphans |
Natural GasPortfolio includes natural gas exposure through Maxim Power's 300 MW gas-fired power plant and Exco Resources as a natural gas producer. Exco serves as a natural hedge to the Maxim position, with Fairfax carrying it at US$20 versus market price of US$7.76. |
Power Generation Energy Hedge Alberta Production | |
DividendsPrairieSky Royalty currently pays an annualized dividend of $1, representing a strong yield on the manager's cost basis of $7.95 per share. The royalty structure provides income with zero capital requirements as a tollgate on Western Canadian oil and gas production. |
Royalties Yield Income Tollgate Cash Flow | |
| 2023 Q4 |
ValueManager focuses on finding 50 cent dollars through his ABBA framework, seeking companies selling below intrinsic value. Emphasizes that intrinsic value is a range supported on the downside and open-ended on the upside, preferring straightforward estimates over complex models. Current holdings are viewed as trading at significant discounts to estimated 3-5 year intrinsic values. |
Discount Intrinsic Value Bargains NAV Undervalued |
Small CapsFund classified as Small/Mid Cap Equity Fund with 39% allocation to small cap companies. Manager defines secondary companies as those with market value below CAD $1bn at initial purchase. Small cap holdings include Maxim Power (19% position), American Coastal Insurance, and Exco Resources among others. |
Secondary Issues Small Companies Neglect Concentration | |
CanadaSignificant exposure to Canadian companies including PrairieSky Royalty (10% position), ONEX Corporation (6%), and Maxim Power (19%). Manager notes portfolio differs from Canadian indices due to limited holdings, cash levels, and international investments. Canadian small/mid cap index used as benchmark comparison. |
TSX Canadian Domestic Local | |
| 2023 Q2 |
EnergyThe fund holds Maxim Power which is commissioning a Combined Cycle Gas Turbine expansion expected to be operational by late fall. PrairieSky had strong performance with oil royalty production and leasing activity hitting multi-year highs. |
Natural Gas Oil Energy Infrastructure Royalties |
MediaWarner Bros Discovery showed improvement from better-than-expected streaming service results. Summer performance was mixed with movie successes like Barbie offset by ongoing Writer & Actors strikes affecting operations. |
Streaming Entertainment Content |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tim McElvaine | PSK CN | PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | cashflow, dividends, land, Optionality, royalties | Login |
| Aug 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tim McElvaine | FIH CN | Fairfax India Holdings Corp. | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Airport, growth, India, infrastructure, NAV | Login |
| Aug 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tim McElvaine | HHH | Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Catalyst, development, land, NAV, realestate | Login |
| Aug 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tim McElvaine | CFP CN | Canfor Corp. | Materials | Forest Products | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Cyclical, Lumber, Replacement, restructuring, tariffs | Login |
| Aug 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tim McElvaine | ONEX CN | Onex Corp. | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | buybacks, Governance, Liquidity, NAV, Privateequity | Login |
| Aug 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tim McElvaine | AIM CN | Aimia Inc. | Financials | Diversified Financial Services | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Activism, Catalyst, Governance, Holdco, NAV | Login |
| Aug 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tim McElvaine | MPX CN | Maxim Power Corp. | Utilities | Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | cash, infrastructure, M&A, Optionality, Power | Login |
| Aug 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tim McElvaine | GUD CN | Knight Therapeutics Inc. | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | acquisition, cashflow, growth, LatAm, pharma | Login |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Fund Letters | McElvaine Value Fund | PSK.TO | PrairieSky Royalty Ltd | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | TSX | contrarian, dividend yield, energy, oil and gas, Royalty, Western Canada | Login |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Fund Letters | McElvaine Value Fund | ONEX.TO | Onex Corporation | Financials | Capital Markets | Bull | TSX | Capital markets, discount to NAV, insider alignment, private equity, Share Buybacks | Login |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Fund Letters | McElvaine Value Fund | XCO | Exco Resources Inc | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | energy, Fairfax Financial, Hedge, natural gas, Reserves, Value | Login |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Fund Letters | McElvaine Value Fund | SEG | Seaport Entertainment Group Inc | Real Estate | Real Estate Management & Development | Bull | NASDAQ | Bill Ackman, entertainment, Las Vegas, NYC, Real Estate, Rights Offering, spinoff | Login |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Fund Letters | McElvaine Value Fund | MOIL.L | Mandarin Oriental International Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Bull | LSE | asset-light, development pipeline, hospitality, Jardine Matheson, Luxury hotels, Sum-of-parts | Login |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Fund Letters | McElvaine Value Fund | MXG.TO | Maxim Power Corp | Utilities | Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers | Bull | TSX | Alberta, Free Cash Flow, natural gas, Power generation, utilities, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| PSK.TO | PSK owns 18.5 million acres of oil, gas & other royalties spanning Western Canada from Northeast British Columbia to Western Manitoba. Over half of these royalty entitlements are fee simple. Business has no capital expenditures nor environmental exposure. Very unique asset which at some point in time may be worth a significant premium to an acquirer. In the meantime, we get a reasonable dividend especially on our tax cost. |
| J36.SI | Diversified Singapore listed conglomerate with holdings in real estate, retail, transportation, and engineering. Simplifying structure to improve return on investment and transparency. High quality assets trading at a discount to NAV; long-term value unlocking underway as structure is simplified. |
| FIH.TO | Indian focused investment company with Bangalore Airport representing over 50% of assets. The airport is the third-busiest airport in India by passenger traffic. Discount to NAV provides margin of safety; India secular growth tailwind. Catalysts in place with proposed listing of a portion of the Bangalore Airport. |
| HHH | Recently restructured to a holding company structure. Main operating division remains the master planned communities. After a number of false starts, Pershing Square (Bill Ackman) upped their holding to 47% in early May and took control of the board. We have owned HHH twice before so I know it reasonably well. It is currently trading well below NAV. |
| CFP.TO | Lumber producer with milling capacity split approx. 1/3 US, 1/3 Sweden, 1/3 Canada. While still weak, operating results have improved in spite of lumber prices, production curtailment, and tariffs/duties. Trading significantly below replacement cost; substantial earning power on any improvement in pricing. |
| ONEX.TO | Private equity firm managing capital on behalf of investors and itself. Repurchased about 4% of outstanding shares so far in 2025. Disposed of part of Westjet at 40% premium to carrying value. Trades below NAV. Not as cheap as it was however further dispositions in 2025 expected. |
| M04.L | Operates 44 luxury hotels, 12 residences. Owns 10 hotels (Tokyo, London, Hong Kong) & a new 500k sq ft office/retail tower valued at US$1.9B. Undervalued luxury brand with valuation supported by well-located real estate. Further real estate asset sales are expected over next year or two. |
| AIM.TO | Permanent capital company with cash and private investments. AIMIA has been an ugly situation. Let's just say the Board was reconstituted in January 2025 and Rhys Summerton became Exec Chair in March. Discount to SOTP; clear catalysts to narrow gap. I met with Rhys and am confident in his goals for AIMIA. |
| MXG.TO | Operates 300MW power plant in Alberta + optionality with additional permitted project. Disposed of permitted coal mine for cash, convertible note and land lease agreement. Cash generative and will benefit for any growth in AB power market. Discount to NAV and expect either further M&A or perhaps a sale. |
| XCO | Oil and gas (primarily nat gas) exploration and development company controlled by Fairfax Financial. Production continues to expand, hedges substantial portion of expected production. Asset-rich with 20 year+ reserve life. Fairfax Financial carries their investment at $20/share. This 'fair value' price is a substantial discount to PV10. |
| GUD.TO | Specialty pharma company acquiring rights to drugs across Latin America and Canada. In 2025, there have been several important acquisitions including purchasing Paladin's Canadian business and Sumitomo Pharma's Canadian business. Strong balance sheet, disciplined capital deployment, large and growing business with tailwinds. |
| WINT | Francis Chou controlled US insurer. Francis encouraged Prem to found Fairfax. Recently acquired Texas based insurance company. Brings a third business leg to Wintaai's insurance operations. Compounding business run by investor I admire. I have known Francis a long time and he has both money and 'ego' invested in Wintaai. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
