Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Meditation Capital outlines its AI investment framework, emphasizing asymmetric risk/reward profiles over thematic bets while avoiding perceived AI losers. The manager sold GitLab at a small loss after rapid AI coding improvements increased uncertainty. The fund's major new positions are in health insurers Elevance Health and Molina Healthcare, capitalizing on margin normalization following 2025 cost overruns. These insurers are expected to reprice policies to restore normal margins, creating projected 4-year IRRs of 25% and 34% respectively. Key risks include potential AI capex bubble conditions and federal Medicaid funding cuts from Trump's budget reconciliation. The manager remains optimistic about AI technology development but cautious about infrastructure valuations, noting China's compute efficiency achievements. Health insurance investments provide recession-resistant exposure with potential AI productivity benefits. The fund maintains its product-first, bottom-up approach while positioning for 2026 as a potential inflection year when AI applications may finally justify capex investments.
Focus on asymmetric AI investments and health insurance margin normalization opportunities while avoiding AI losers and capex bubble risks.
Manager expects 2026 to be pivotal year when AI applications may finally match capex investments, creating portfolio value. Health insurance investments positioned for margin recovery over 2027-2030 as repricing occurs. Cautiously optimistic on AI technology while wary of capex bubble risks.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ELV, GTLB, MOH | AI, Health Insurance, Margins, Medicaid, technology, value |
ELV MOH |
Manager outlines framework for AI investing focused on asymmetric risk/reward profiles and avoiding AI losers. Applications have lagged capex but 2026 may see value creation across portfolio. Sold GitLab position due to increased uncertainty from rapid AI coding improvements. Large positions in Elevance Health and Molina Healthcare based on margin normalization thesis after 2025 cost overruns. Health insurers expected to reprice policies to restore normal margins, creating 25-34% IRR opportunities over 4 years. |
| Sep 21 2025 | 2025 Q2 | FLYW | customer retention, products, software, switching costs, valuation |
MNDY GTLB BRZE FLYW |
The commentary centers on investing in companies with exceptional products, high customer satisfaction, and strong switching costs. Management emphasizes slack in business models, where firms overinvest in R&D and customer support to build durable long-term value. Valuation discipline paired with product excellence drives asymmetric return potential. |
| May 20 2025 | 2025 Q1 | LTMC IM | - | - | |
| Dec 17 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BGEO LN, HSBK LI, KSPI, TBCG LN | - | - | |
| Jul 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | CABP LN, PDD, WISE LN | - | - | |
| May 3 2024 | 2024 Q1 | 1405 HK, DPZ | - | - | |
| Feb 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | KSPI | - | - | |
| Mar 11 2023 | 2023 Q3 | HCP | - | - | |
| Aug 28 2023 | 2023 Q2 | BGEO LN | - | - | |
| Apr 17 2023 | 2023 Q1 | OKTA | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Managed CareUnitedHealth and Elevance faced multi-year fundamental pain from rising healthcare utilization and volatile medical costs. The managed care industry is under-earning across most business lines due to repricing challenges and regulatory constraints. Policy risk has increased with renewed scrutiny of industry business practices including prior authorizations and pharmacy benefit management. |
Healthcare Insurance Medicaid Medicare Utilization | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Product |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | MNDY | Monday.com Ltd. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Automation, growth, SaaS, Software, Workflow | Login |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | GTLB | GitLab Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Devops, enterprise, Security, Stickiness | Login |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | BRZE | Braze Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Engagement, Marketing, Personalization, Retention, SaaS | Login |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | FLYW | Flywire Corp. | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Crossborder, Education, growth, Payments, Stickiness | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | ELV | Elevance Health, Inc. | Health Care | Managed Health Care | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, Managedcare, Marginrecovery, Repricing, valuation | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | MOH | Molina Healthcare, Inc. | Health Care | Managed Health Care | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, Costadvantage, Marginrecovery, Medicaid, oligopoly | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ELV | The holdings in Applied Materials, Elevance Health, LVMH and Anheuser-Busch InBev were exited |
| GTLB | We identified GitLab (GTLB) as a short opportunity based on structural and competitive risks to its business model. GitLab provides a Development, Security, and Operations platform designed to help organizations build, secure, and deploy software across the development lifecycle. The company monetizes its platform through a subscription model primarily priced on the number of developer "seats" at each customer. We believe this model is increasingly vulnerable as advances in Generative Artificial Intelligence reshape how software is developed. Over the past several years, GenAI has emerged as one of the defining investment themes, driving significant investment in AI infrastructure and spurring rapid innovation in AI‑enabled coding tools such as Claude Code, Cursor, and Windsurf. These tools have expanded developers' productivity and, in some cases, reduced the amount of manual coding required, raising questions about long‑term demand for traditional seat‑based pricing models. In addition, GitLab's unified platform faces growing competitive pressure from AI‑native point solutions as enterprises increasingly favor best‑of‑breed tools rather than bundled offerings. Competitive intensity is further heightened by GitHub, owned by Microsoft, which continues to benefit from Microsoft's substantial distribution advantages and has increasingly become a widely adopted platform for developers. Recent operating trends have reinforced these concerns, with net customer additions at higher spending tiers, slowing meaningfully compared to the prior year. Taken together, we believe these dynamics increase the risk of revenue growth underperformance and valuation pressure should expectations fail to be met. |
| MOH | We recently initiated a position in Molina Healthcare (MOH), which we believe is a mispriced compounder experiencing transitory margin pressure. The stock traded as high as $300 per share only six months ago; we purchased our shares at approximately $160 in late December. Molina provides managed healthcare services primarily to low-income families and individuals via Medicaid, Medicare and the various state marketplaces established by the 2010 Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). The company is an example of a situation in which the stock price decline has been vastly exacerbated by negative political news—and mostly disconnected from the company's actual business fundamentals. In our view, the market's reaction extrapolates short-term pressures indefinitely and underappreciates both the structural dynamics of Medicaid rate resets and Molina's long track record of operational outperformance versus peers. We see a credible path to 2–3x upside over the next several years as margins normalize and earnings power becomes evident. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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| No industry data available | |||