Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 0% | 0% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
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| - | 0% | 0% |
Meditation Capital outlines its AI investment framework, emphasizing asymmetric risk/reward profiles over thematic bets while avoiding perceived AI losers. The manager sold GitLab at a small loss after rapid AI coding improvements increased uncertainty. The fund's major new positions are in health insurers Elevance Health and Molina Healthcare, capitalizing on margin normalization following 2025 cost overruns. These insurers are expected to reprice policies to restore normal margins, creating projected 4-year IRRs of 25% and 34% respectively. Key risks include potential AI capex bubble conditions and federal Medicaid funding cuts from Trump's budget reconciliation. The manager remains optimistic about AI technology development but cautious about infrastructure valuations, noting China's compute efficiency achievements. Health insurance investments provide recession-resistant exposure with potential AI productivity benefits. The fund maintains its product-first, bottom-up approach while positioning for 2026 as a potential inflection year when AI applications may finally justify capex investments.
Focus on asymmetric AI investments and health insurance margin normalization opportunities while avoiding AI losers and capex bubble risks.
Manager expects 2026 to be pivotal year when AI applications may finally match capex investments, creating portfolio value. Health insurance investments positioned for margin recovery over 2027-2030 as repricing occurs. Cautiously optimistic on AI technology while wary of capex bubble risks.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ELV, GTLB, MOH | AI, Health Insurance, Margins, Medicaid, technology, value |
ELV MOH |
Meditation Capital pivots from AI infrastructure concerns to health insurance margin recovery plays. Sold GitLab on AI disruption fears, built large positions in Elevance and Molina targeting 25-34% IRRs from policy repricing post-2025 cost overruns. Cautious on AI capex bubble while positioning for application value creation in 2026. |
| Sep 21 2025 | 2025 Q2 | BRZE, FLYW, GOOGL, GTLB, MA, MNDY, MSFT | AI, payments, Quality, software, valuation |
MNDY GTLB BRZE FLYW MNDY GTLB FLYW |
Tim Liu bought software companies Monday.com and GitLab at 5x sales after 50% declines, arguing they're quality businesses, not AI losers. Also initiated Flywire position, which dominates international student payments. Investment philosophy focuses on amazing products with intentional slack - over-investing in R&D and customer support for sustainable competitive advantages. |
| May 20 2025 | 2025 Q1 | BGEO.L, KASPI.L, LOTO.MI, NU, PDD, TBCG.L | Europe, Gambling, Italy, Long-only, management, valuation, volatility | LTO.MI | Meditation Capital thrives in volatile markets, seeking quality companies with exceptional management at attractive prices. Their detailed Lottomatica analysis exemplifies their approach: identifying structural growth opportunities in Italian online gambling penetration led by driven management. The long-only fund targets scaled businesses with liquidity constraints that create barriers for larger investors, enabling patient capital deployment. |
| Dec 17 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BGEO.L, HEPS.IS, KSPI, TBCG.L | Banking, emerging markets, Fintech, IRR, long-term, valuation |
KSPI BGEO.L TBCG.L HLYB |
Concentrated emerging markets fund focused on undervalued regional banks and fintech with exceptional fundamentals. Key holdings trade at extreme discounts despite 25-37% ROEs and strong growth. Recent Georgia political risks prompted tactical de-risking. High market valuations constrain broader opportunity set. Potential Ukraine war resolution could unlock significant multiple expansion for regional positions. |
| Jul 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | CABP.L, COST, CPAY, IBKR, PDD, SCHW, SNEX, WMT | Africa, Counter-positioning, disruption, payments, small caps, value | - | Meditation Capital targets counter-positioned business models that save customers money at low valuations. The fund's detailed analysis of Cab Payments demonstrates this philosophy - a UK bank disrupting cross-border payments to Africa through direct banking networks. Despite recent volatility, Cab trades at 7x FCF with high-teens growth potential as large banks retreat from emerging markets. |
| May 3 2024 | 2024 Q1 | 1405.HK, 3994.T, AAPL, CFLT, DPZ, HCP, QCOM, TSLA, WMT | Cash Management, China, Franchising, Product Focus, Restaurants, valuation | - | Meditation Capital champions product-first investing, highlighting DPC Dash as Domino's China franchisee with massive store expansion potential from 835 to 4,000+ locations. Despite China's macro headwinds, bombed-out valuations create selective opportunities. High cash position from HashiCorp exit provides flexibility for counter-cyclical deployment when great products meet attractive prices. |
| Feb 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | KSPI | E-Commerce, emerging markets, Fintech, Kazakhstan, payments, technology, value | - | Meditation Capital targets Kaspi, Kazakhstan's dominant fintech super-app trading at 8x earnings despite $1.9 billion profits and 45% margins. The company combines payments, lending, and e-commerce with weak competition and superior execution. Manager projects 30%+ USD IRR from earnings growth and multiple re-rating while managing emerging market risks through careful analysis. |
| Mar 11 2023 | 2023 Q3 | HCP | Cloud, cybersecurity, Enterprise, software, value | HCP | Meditation Capital aggressively deployed capital during Q3 market selloff, focusing on high-quality software companies with strong balance sheets trading at steep discounts. Primary case study HashiCorp exemplifies their approach: mission-critical cloud infrastructure products, substantial net cash, trading at 4.2x sales despite strong long-term growth prospects and low enterprise penetration rates. |
| Aug 28 2023 | 2023 Q2 | BGEO.L, SMAR | Banking, Currency Risk, emerging markets, Georgia, small caps, value | BGEO.L | Meditation Capital invests in Bank of Georgia, a dominant Georgian bank trading at 1.1x book despite 25% normalized ROE potential in a consolidated market. Georgia's post-2003 transformation into a pro-Western democracy with 7% growth provides attractive backdrop. Fund maintains high cash levels while selectively adding positions, targeting exceptional IRRs in less liquid opportunities under $30M daily volume. |
| Apr 17 2023 | 2023 Q1 | CRWD, GTLB, MSFT, OKTA, S | conviction, Product Quality, risk management, software, technology, valuation | - | Meditation Capital maintains disciplined focus on companies with exceptional products and high terminal value confidence. With recession risks mounting, they're preserving capital while targeting 4-year 30%+ IRR opportunities. The Okta experience reinforced their conviction-based philosophy of investing only where they have high confidence in long-term competitive advantages against threats like Microsoft's bundling power. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI emergence has created market hysteria and broad software sell-offs despite limited real-world adoption. Manager believes incumbent software firms with domain expertise and proprietary data are better positioned than AI-native startups to capture long-term benefits from AI integration. |
Artificial Intelligence Software Automation Technology |
SoftwareSoftware sector treated as monolith awaiting AI disruption, creating valuation disconnect. Manager maintains significant overweight despite recent underperformance, believing dominant vertical platforms can successfully reinvent themselves for agentic world and fend off AI-native competitors. |
Enterprise Software SaaS Technology Vertical Software | |
HotelsChoice Hotels represents asset-light, high-margin opportunity trading at distressed multiples due to cyclical headwinds. Company shifting portfolio toward higher-revenue segments like Extended Stay and international markets, with potential for significant capital unlock and share buybacks. |
Hospitality Franchising Asset Light Extended Stay | |
ValueMarket experiencing broadening out to small cap value industries, though manager unable to capitalize due to software overweight. Traditional value industrial exposure outweighing software gains, creating performance headwinds despite long-anticipated leadership shift. |
Small Cap Value Investing Industrial Rotation | |
| 2025 Q2 |
SoftwareManager bought positions in Monday.com and GitLab at 5x sales after they fell from 11x peaks, and added to Braze at 3x sales. Views these as quality software companies trading at attractive valuations despite AI concerns. GitLab's strategic position is strengthening as more AI-generated code needs DevOps management. |
SaaS Dev Tools Enterprise Software Valuation AI |
PaymentsNew position in Flywire, which dominates international student tuition payments with superior product and customer service. Business model benefits from university selecting the product while students pay the fees. Recent visa restrictions created buying opportunity at attractive valuation. |
FinTech Payments Education International FX | |
QualityInvestment philosophy centers on companies with amazing products that are hard to create and copy, leading to steady market share gains. Focus on businesses with intentional slack - over-investing in R&D, customer support, and under-pricing relative to what they could charge for future competitive advantage. |
Product Quality Competitive Moats Customer Satisfaction R&D Investment | |
| 2025 Q1 |
GamblingLottomatica is the #1 online & offline B2C gambling operator in Italy with 31% market share online and 30-40% share offline. The investment opportunity lies in Italy's low online gambling penetration at 31% versus 63% in the UK and 75%+ in Scandinavia. Online casino penetration is only 26% in Italy, up from 8% in 2019, with each euro of offline casino gambling that moves online generating 2.6x the EBITDA for Lottomatica. |
Sports Betting Online Casino Market Share Italy Penetration |
ManagementThe fund focuses heavily on management teams with what they call 'the dog in them' - unusually driven, intense people who maintain firm grasp of their business. Their biggest winners were run by such managers while biggest losses came from corporate-speaking, softer managers who blamed external factors during difficult times. They assess management through conversations looking for urgency, intensity, numerical fluency, and passion for product and long-term vision. |
Leadership Execution Work Ethic Product Focus Accountability | |
VolatilityThe manager views volatility as positive for their strategy, providing opportunities to buy great companies cheaply. April's market volatility felt familiar and comforting, similar to when they launched the fund in May 2022 during falling markets. Deep red markets excite them as declining prices open up entirely new opportunity sets previously closed due to valuation. |
Opportunity Valuation Market Timing Dislocations Contrarian | |
| 2024 Q3 |
ValuationManager emphasizes how high multiples significantly damage medium/long-term IRRs, constraining their opportunity set. They focus heavily on valuation as key input for underwriteable returns and downside protection, assuming conservative exit multiples rather than relying on market sentiment. |
Multiple Compression IRR Exit Multiples Downside Protection Conservative Assumptions |
BankingPortfolio concentrated in high-performing regional banks including Halyk Bank (38% ROE), Bank of Georgia (37% ROE), and TBC Bank. These banks trade at extremely low multiples despite strong fundamentals and growth prospects in emerging markets. |
ROE Book Value Dividends Regional Banks Emerging Markets | |
FinTechInvestments in Kaspi and regional banks with superior digital products and superapps. Manager appreciates product-focused leadership and NPS improvements, viewing these as competitive advantages in financial services. |
Superapps Digital Banking NPS Product Focus Financial Services | |
| 2024 Q2 |
PaymentsFocus on cross-border payments companies that save customers money through counter-positioned business models. Cab Payments exemplifies this with its direct banking network bypassing expensive correspondent banking systems, particularly for Africa-focused transfers. |
Cross-border FX Banking Africa Fintech |
DisruptionInvestment philosophy centers on counter-positioned business models that incumbents cannot copy without damaging their existing operations. Examples include PDD's price-focused algorithm versus Alibaba's multi-factor approach, and Wise's direct banking connections versus traditional correspondent banking. |
Counter-positioning Business models Incumbents Scale economies | |
| 2024 Q1 |
ChinaManager discusses selective investment in Chinese markets despite significant risks including property bust, weak consumer recovery, political shifts toward security over growth, and worsening geopolitical tensions. Notes bombed-out valuations in offshore-listed Chinese stocks create exceptional opportunities despite permanently lower multiples. |
Geopolitical Valuations Consumer Property Offshore |
RestaurantsPrimary focus on DPC Dash, Domino's Pizza franchisee in China, highlighting strong unit economics, rapid store expansion potential from 835 to 4,000+ stores, and superior product positioning versus competitors like Pizza Hut. Discusses restaurant sector fatigue in Hong Kong market creating opportunity. |
Franchising Unit Economics Store Growth QSR Brand | |
FoodExtensive analysis of pizza market dynamics in China, including underpenetration versus other markets, localized menu innovations, and competitive advantages through dedicated delivery and superior taste. Emphasizes food delivery market transformation since 2015. |
Pizza Delivery Localization Market Penetration Taste | |
| 2023 Q4 |
FintechKaspi operates as Kazakhstan's dominant super-app combining payments, lending, and e-commerce with ubiquitous usage. The company benefits from weak competition and generates profits across three segments with superior data advantages for underwriting. |
Payments BNPL Super-app Digital Banking QR Payments |
E-commerceKazakhstan's e-commerce penetration remains low at 12% of retail sales, with Kaspi holding 65% market share. The company faces competition from Russian players Ozon and Wildberries but maintains advantages through app integration and lending capabilities. |
Marketplace Logistics Market Share Penetration Competition | |
Emerging MarketsThe fund focuses on Kazakhstan and Georgia for their slower business trends, weak competition, and dominant market positions available at low valuations. These markets offer higher risk-adjusted returns compared to developed markets. |
Kazakhstan Georgia Valuation Competition Liquidity | |
| 2023 Q3 |
CloudManager focuses heavily on high-quality software companies with substantial net cash balances as perfect candidates for averaging down when prices decline. These are mission-critical products with recurring revenue that customers find difficult to turn off, with margins that tend to expand when growth slows. |
Infrastructure SaaS Enterprise Software Recurring Revenue Mission Critical |
CybersecurityHashiCorp's Vault product addresses secrets management, which falls under the cybersecurity bucket and represents a priority area of spend for enterprises. The product helps manage machine-to-machine passwords and credentials, solving major security problems for companies transitioning to cloud infrastructure. |
Secrets Management Enterprise Security Cloud Security Access Management Security Audits | |
| 2023 Q2 |
BankingFocus on Bank of Georgia, a dominant bank in a consolidated Georgian market with 80% market share between top two banks. The bank generates exceptional 24-29% ROEs due to limited competition and strong digital offerings. Management quality is excellent with Western-educated CEOs and conservative capital ratios. |
Banking Georgia Consolidation Digital ROE |
Emerging marketsGeorgia represents an attractive emerging market opportunity following the 2003 Rose Revolution. The country has transformed from near-failed state to pro-Western democracy with low corruption, high economic freedom, and 7% GDP growth. Strategic position as Middle Corridor hub bypassing Russia provides additional tailwinds. |
Georgia Reform Growth Infrastructure Geopolitics | |
| 2023 Q1 |
CybersecurityManager discusses competitive dynamics in identity management and cybersecurity, specifically analyzing Okta versus Microsoft's bundling advantages. The letter details avoiding investments in Crowdstrike, SentinelOne, and GitLab due to concerns about Microsoft's closing product gap in these areas. |
Identity Bundling Competition Product |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | ELV | Elevance Health, Inc. | Health Care | Managed Health Care | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, Managedcare, Marginrecovery, Repricing, valuation | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | MOH | Molina Healthcare, Inc. | Health Care | Managed Health Care | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, Costadvantage, Marginrecovery, Medicaid, oligopoly | Login |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | MNDY | Monday.com Ltd. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Automation, growth, SaaS, Software, Workflow | Login |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | GTLB | GitLab Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Devops, enterprise, Security, Stickiness | Login |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | BRZE | Braze Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Engagement, Marketing, Personalization, Retention, SaaS | Login |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | FLYW | Flywire Corp. | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Crossborder, Education, growth, Payments, Stickiness | Login |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | MNDY | Monday.com Ltd. | Software & Services | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI Resilient, SaaS, Software, valuation compression, Work management, Workflow Software | Login |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | GTLB | GitLab Inc. | Software & Services | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition target, AI Beneficiary, Code Management, Devops, duopoly, Enterprise software, high switching costs | Login |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | FLYW | Flywire Corporation | Software & Services | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Cross-Border, Developing Markets, education technology, FX Embedded Pricing, International Payments, Student Visa, University Partnerships | Login |
| May 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | LTO.MI | Lottomatica | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | Borsa Italiana | Digital transformation, Equity, Gambling, Italy, M&A Consolidation, market share gains, Omnichannel, Online Casino, Sports betting | Login |
| Dec 17, 2024 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | KSPI | Kaspi.kz JSC | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition, digital payments, e-commerce, Emerging markets, Fintech, Kazakhstan, super app, Turkey, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Dec 17, 2024 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | BGEO.L | Bank of Georgia Group PLC | Financials | Banks | Bull | London Stock Exchange | acquisition, Armenia, banking, digital banking, Emerging markets, Georgia, market share, ROE, super app, Value | Login |
| Dec 17, 2024 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | TBCG.L | TBC Bank Group PLC | Financials | Banks | Bull | London Stock Exchange | banking, digital banking, Emerging markets, GDP growth, Georgia, management, Market expansion, ROE, Uzbekistan, Value | Login |
| Dec 17, 2024 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | HLYB | Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan JSC | Financials | Banks | Bull | NASDAQ | banking, Conservative Capitalization, dividend yield, Emerging markets, Kazakhstan, market leader, ROE, Value | Login |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | HCP | HashiCorp Inc | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity, Devops, Enterprise software, Infrastructure as Code, Multi Cloud, net cash, Open Source, SaaS, Secrets Management, Value | Login |
| Aug 28, 2023 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | BGEO.L | Bank of Georgia | Financials | Banks | Bull | London Stock Exchange | banking, digital banking, Emerging markets, Fintech, Georgia, high ROE, market consolidation, Mobile Banking, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ELV | Over the summer, as health insurance stocks cratered amidst guide-downs from United Health, Centene, and others, we bought a large position in Elevance Health, a diversified health insurer known for its portfolio of Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield plans. Elevance Health is a diversified health insurer with businesses in Medicaid (28% of total revenue before investment income), Medicare (22%), group commercial business (21%), insurance for federal employees (8%), individual ACA marketplace (5%), and pharmacy and directly providing care (16% of revenue after eliminations for services provided internally). Elevance operates in 14 states with the "Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield" brand, a blue-chip brand that carries a halo, provides differentiated nationwide coverage across sister Blue Cross Blue Shield plans, and drives a jewel of a commercial business. Elevance trades at ~13x 2026 earnings (we estimate the entire government business including ACA marketplace, which comprises more than half of all revenues before investment income, together delivers very little margin today, with nearly all current earnings coming from the commercial and pharmacy/direct care segments) and ~7x our estimate of 2030 earnings. We estimate that Elevance's adj. net margin will recover from 3.0% in 2026 to 4.3% in 2030 (vs. 4.7% in 2019; the company since 2019 has more than doubled in scale and mix-shifted into higher margin pharmacy and direct care businesses) and that Elevance will buy back ~3% of shares annually while spending the rest of free cash on acquisitions and dividends. Assuming an exit at the end of 2029 at 15x forward earnings, plus interim dividends, this drives a ~25% 4-year IRR. Elevance has a fantastic brand and commercial business and is fairly valued on that alone, with almost no contribution needed from the government business (of course, margins have to normalize there to get us our expected return). We applied our usual analysis to this industry of "who delivers the best product?" which led us to prefer Elevance over United Health. We are worried about United's seemingly excessive cultural focus on profits (reinforced by conversations with industry participants, vs. Elevance's higher relative focus on patients and providers), which has led to widely reported allegations around over-billing Medicare via targeting high-value diagnoses and being too aggressive in denying care. We also prefer Elevance's higher relative mix of Commercial and Medicaid vs. Medicare. Elevance is investing an incremental >$100 million into AI initiatives in 2026. |
| GTLB | In Q2 we wrote about our investment in GitLab; in Q4 we sold our investment at a small loss. The striking gains in coding abilities in the November-December models (Opus 4.5, Gemini 3, and ChatGPT 5.2) caught us by surprise and made us re-evaluate the investment and acknowledge that the level of uncertainty and downside risk has increased, especially as GitLab continues to lag on developing its own AI agent product. We still think the company will be sold, but we are no longer willing to wait around for it. While it's not ideal to sell something shortly after we write about it, nonetheless, when the facts change, we change our minds, a characteristic that has always been our strength. |
| MOH | Toward the end of the year we added to our health insurance investment with a purchase of Molina Healthcare, a Medicaid specialist. Molina by contrast is a specialty insurer focused on Medicaid; 75% of premium revenue comes from Medicaid, 14% from Medicare which is largely linked to serving older Medicaid-eligible patients via integrated Medicare-Medicaid plans, and 11% from individual ACA marketplace which aims to capture lower-income individuals with incomes slightly above Medicaid eligibility levels. Since each state sets the same per-person rate for every insurer in its program, Medicaid is about operating with the lowest cost; and as a focused scaled player Molina has excelled at this, using disciplined execution and cost management to consistently achieve lower costs and thus higher margins than peers while maintaining good quality scores and using those scores to win new RFPs and gain market share at a best-in-the-market type rate (~71% success rate on RFPs in new territories, ~83% success rate in retaining existing contracts when they come up for RFP). In a year where industry Medicaid profitability is estimated to be -2%, Molina's Medicaid business is still making a +2.3% after-tax margin, a 4-point spread. Molina trades at ~13x 2026 earnings and ~4x our estimate of 2030 earnings. We estimate that Molina's overall adj. net margin will recover from 1.5% in 2026 to 2.9% in 2030 (vs. 4.4% in 2019). Assuming an exit at the end of 2029 at 14x forward earnings, with no dividends since all free cash goes to acquisitions and buybacks, this drives a ~34% 4-year IRR. We are very impressed with what Molina's management team (in place since late 2017, replacing two Molina brothers who had inherited the business from their father) has accomplished in turning Molina into a low-cost, focused share gainer in Medicaid. Our checks on CEO Joe Zubretsky and the management team he's put in place are very positive. We think Molina has a long runway in both organically continuing to gain market share through winning RFPs as well as in acquiring struggling Medicaid plans. Ironically, the longer this Medicaid downturn lasts, the better positioned Molina may be longer term, as they continue to acquire. We've spoken to smaller Medicaid insurers running at -3% negative margins in this environment while Molina is solidly profitable. Molina repurchased 5% of its total shares outstanding in Q3 2025 alone. |
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