Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 30th June 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Meditation Capital ramped up software buying starting February 2026 as valuations fell dramatically, with companies like Klaviyo declining from 12x to 2x NTM sales. The manager conducted 105 expert calls in H1 2026 to assess AI impact, concluding that widespread selling misses critical nuances between software companies that will be disrupted versus those positioned as AI beneficiaries. The portfolio now includes Braze, Monday, Workiva, Atlassian, Dynatrace, and Klaviyo, selected for essential utility positioning, cheap valuations at 2-3x sales, and ability to enhance products with AI rather than face disruption. Workiva receives particular emphasis as a near-monopoly in SEC reporting trading at 2.6x sales with 31% modeled IRR and potential PE takeout at 5-6x sales. The manager sees 30-40%+ IRRs across software holdings with unheroic assumptions as real profitability inflects upward and the market develops more nuanced views. Key risks include AI-driven disruption through internal rebuilds or new competitors, though manager believes selected companies are defensible. The manager remains cautious on the AI capex trade despite avoiding shorts, preferring to focus on buying great products at low prices in overlooked areas.
High-quality application software companies have been indiscriminately sold off on AI disruption fears, creating asymmetric opportunities to buy dominant platforms at 2-3x NTM sales that should generate 30-40%+ IRRs as nuance emerges between AI winners and losers, with careful selection focusing on essential utility software, strong product cultures, and companies positioned to enhance rather than be disrupted by AI.
Manager sees exciting opportunities to buy companies with amazing products at cheap prices as AI capex trade pulls capital out of non-exposed sectors. Expects software companies that are AI beneficiaries to see significant repricing as market develops more nuanced view distinguishing winners from losers. Anticipates real profitability inflection as software companies shift to margin focus. Remains cautious on AI capex trade due to multiplicative supply growth without clear corresponding demand drivers beyond coding. Overall tone is constructive on portfolio positioning while maintaining vigilance on AI developments and actively seeking disconfirming evidence.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 11 2026 | 2026 Q2 | BRZE, DT, KVYO, MNDY, OKTA, TEAM, WK | AI, private equity, Product, SaaS, software, technology, valuation | WK | Manager aggressively bought application software in H1 2026 at 2-3x sales, down from 8-12x, seeing 30-40%+ IRRs as market indiscriminately sold on AI fears. Portfolio focuses on essential utility software like Workiva (SEC reporting near-monopoly at 2.6x sales, 31% IRR) positioned to benefit from AI rather than be disrupted. Conducted 105 expert calls to validate thesis that nuance between winners and losers is being missed. |
| Jan 20 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ELV, GTLB, MOH | AI, Health Insurance, Margins, Medicaid, technology, value |
ELV MOH |
Meditation Capital pivots from AI infrastructure concerns to health insurance margin recovery plays. Sold GitLab on AI disruption fears, built large positions in Elevance and Molina targeting 25-34% IRRs from policy repricing post-2025 cost overruns. Cautious on AI capex bubble while positioning for application value creation in 2026. |
| Sep 21 2025 | 2025 Q2 | BRZE, FLYW, GOOGL, GTLB, MA, MNDY, MSFT | AI, payments, Quality, software, valuation |
MNDY GTLB BRZE FLYW MNDY GTLB FLYW |
Tim Liu bought software companies Monday.com and GitLab at 5x sales after 50% declines, arguing they're quality businesses, not AI losers. Also initiated Flywire position, which dominates international student payments. Investment philosophy focuses on amazing products with intentional slack - over-investing in R&D and customer support for sustainable competitive advantages. |
| May 20 2025 | 2025 Q1 | BGEO.L, KASPI.L, LOTO.MI, NU, PDD, TBCG.L | Europe, Gambling, Italy, Long-only, management, valuation, volatility | LTO.MI | Meditation Capital thrives in volatile markets, seeking quality companies with exceptional management at attractive prices. Their detailed Lottomatica analysis exemplifies their approach: identifying structural growth opportunities in Italian online gambling penetration led by driven management. The long-only fund targets scaled businesses with liquidity constraints that create barriers for larger investors, enabling patient capital deployment. |
| Dec 17 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BGEO.L, HEPS.IS, KSPI, TBCG.L | Banking, emerging markets, Fintech, IRR, long-term, valuation |
KSPI BGEO.L TBCG.L HLYB |
Concentrated emerging markets fund focused on undervalued regional banks and fintech with exceptional fundamentals. Key holdings trade at extreme discounts despite 25-37% ROEs and strong growth. Recent Georgia political risks prompted tactical de-risking. High market valuations constrain broader opportunity set. Potential Ukraine war resolution could unlock significant multiple expansion for regional positions. |
| Jul 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | CABP.L, COST, CPAY, IBKR, PDD, SCHW, SNEX, WMT | Africa, Counter-positioning, disruption, payments, small caps, value | - | Meditation Capital targets counter-positioned business models that save customers money at low valuations. The fund's detailed analysis of Cab Payments demonstrates this philosophy - a UK bank disrupting cross-border payments to Africa through direct banking networks. Despite recent volatility, Cab trades at 7x FCF with high-teens growth potential as large banks retreat from emerging markets. |
| May 3 2024 | 2024 Q1 | 1405.HK, 3994.T, AAPL, CFLT, DPZ, HCP, QCOM, TSLA, WMT | Cash Management, China, Franchising, Product Focus, Restaurants, valuation | - | Meditation Capital champions product-first investing, highlighting DPC Dash as Domino's China franchisee with massive store expansion potential from 835 to 4,000+ locations. Despite China's macro headwinds, bombed-out valuations create selective opportunities. High cash position from HashiCorp exit provides flexibility for counter-cyclical deployment when great products meet attractive prices. |
| Feb 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | KSPI | E-Commerce, emerging markets, Fintech, Kazakhstan, payments, technology, value | - | Meditation Capital targets Kaspi, Kazakhstan's dominant fintech super-app trading at 8x earnings despite $1.9 billion profits and 45% margins. The company combines payments, lending, and e-commerce with weak competition and superior execution. Manager projects 30%+ USD IRR from earnings growth and multiple re-rating while managing emerging market risks through careful analysis. |
| Mar 11 2023 | 2023 Q3 | HCP | Cloud, cybersecurity, Enterprise, software, value | HCP | Meditation Capital aggressively deployed capital during Q3 market selloff, focusing on high-quality software companies with strong balance sheets trading at steep discounts. Primary case study HashiCorp exemplifies their approach: mission-critical cloud infrastructure products, substantial net cash, trading at 4.2x sales despite strong long-term growth prospects and low enterprise penetration rates. |
| Aug 28 2023 | 2023 Q2 | BGEO.L, SMAR | Banking, Currency Risk, emerging markets, Georgia, small caps, value | BGEO.L | Meditation Capital invests in Bank of Georgia, a dominant Georgian bank trading at 1.1x book despite 25% normalized ROE potential in a consolidated market. Georgia's post-2003 transformation into a pro-Western democracy with 7% growth provides attractive backdrop. Fund maintains high cash levels while selectively adding positions, targeting exceptional IRRs in less liquid opportunities under $30M daily volume. |
| Apr 17 2023 | 2023 Q1 | CRWD, GTLB, MSFT, OKTA, S | conviction, Product Quality, risk management, software, technology, valuation | - | Meditation Capital maintains disciplined focus on companies with exceptional products and high terminal value confidence. With recession risks mounting, they're preserving capital while targeting 4-year 30%+ IRR opportunities. The Okta experience reinforced their conviction-based philosophy of investing only where they have high confidence in long-term competitive advantages against threats like Microsoft's bundling power. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
SaaSManager ramped up buying in software starting February 2026 as valuations fell dramatically (e.g., Klaviyo from 12x to 2x NTM sales). Portfolio now includes Braze, Monday, Workiva, Atlassian, Dynatrace, and Klaviyo. Manager conducted 105 expert calls in H1 2026 to assess AI impact on software, focusing on product quality and customer feedback. Believes nuance is being missed in widespread selling, with some software companies positioned as AI beneficiaries rather than disruption victims. |
Valuation Product Customer Platform Margins |
AIManager views AI as creating both risks and opportunities in software, with most investors putting software in the 'too hard' pile. Believes differentiation between AI winners and losers within application software has not yet been priced. Focuses on companies where AI enhances products rather than disrupts them. Cautious on AI capex trade due to multiplicative supply growth (potentially >300x useful tokens by 2030) without clear demand drivers beyond coding use cases. |
Disruption Capex Agents Coding Infrastructure | |
WorkivaWorkiva is the dominant player in SEC reporting with 95% of Fortune 100 as customers. Manager believes it is unusually resistant to AI risk due to 100% accuracy requirements, multi-player workflows, and CEO/CFO personal liability. Company is integrating AI to enhance product and introduced new pricing model to capture value. Trading at 2.6x NTM sales for a business that should reach 25-30% GAAP operating margins. Manager models 31% IRR with potential PE takeout at 5-6x sales. |
Financial reporting Compliance Workflow Monopoly Margins | |
ValuationSoftware valuations have fallen dramatically from 8-12x sales to 2-3x sales for the companies purchased. Manager sees 30-40%+ IRRs (3-4x over four years) with unheroic modeling. Believes current multiples are very low for quality businesses with high margins and recurring revenue. Notes that growth-to-value transition has left software in no-man's land as growth investors fled and value investors see low current GAAP earnings. |
Multiples IRR Margins Returns | |
CybersecurityInfrastructure and cybersecurity software initially fell but rebounded sharply over successive months as investors repriced them as AI winners. Manager notes these sectors have almost turned into concept stocks and are now far more expensive than application software. |
Infrastructure Repricing Valuation | |
Private EquityManager believes Workiva would be a prime PE takeout target, citing Orlando Bravo's April 2026 comments about buying high-quality #1 players with AI momentum at bargain prices. Notes Hg acquired AuditBoard for ~13x ARR in May 2024 and OneStream for 8x NTM sales in January 2026. Workiva at 5-6x sales would be $6-7 billion EV, digestible for PE. |
Takeout Valuation M&A | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI emergence has created market hysteria and broad software sell-offs despite limited real-world adoption. Manager believes incumbent software firms with domain expertise and proprietary data are better positioned than AI-native startups to capture long-term benefits from AI integration. |
Artificial Intelligence Software Automation Technology |
SoftwareSoftware sector treated as monolith awaiting AI disruption, creating valuation disconnect. Manager maintains significant overweight despite recent underperformance, believing dominant vertical platforms can successfully reinvent themselves for agentic world and fend off AI-native competitors. |
Enterprise Software SaaS Technology Vertical Software | |
HotelsChoice Hotels represents asset-light, high-margin opportunity trading at distressed multiples due to cyclical headwinds. Company shifting portfolio toward higher-revenue segments like Extended Stay and international markets, with potential for significant capital unlock and share buybacks. |
Hospitality Franchising Asset Light Extended Stay | |
ValueMarket experiencing broadening out to small cap value industries, though manager unable to capitalize due to software overweight. Traditional value industrial exposure outweighing software gains, creating performance headwinds despite long-anticipated leadership shift. |
Small Cap Value Investing Industrial Rotation | |
| 2025 Q2 |
SoftwareManager bought positions in Monday.com and GitLab at 5x sales after they fell from 11x peaks, and added to Braze at 3x sales. Views these as quality software companies trading at attractive valuations despite AI concerns. GitLab's strategic position is strengthening as more AI-generated code needs DevOps management. |
SaaS Dev Tools Enterprise Software Valuation AI |
PaymentsNew position in Flywire, which dominates international student tuition payments with superior product and customer service. Business model benefits from university selecting the product while students pay the fees. Recent visa restrictions created buying opportunity at attractive valuation. |
FinTech Payments Education International FX | |
QualityInvestment philosophy centers on companies with amazing products that are hard to create and copy, leading to steady market share gains. Focus on businesses with intentional slack - over-investing in R&D, customer support, and under-pricing relative to what they could charge for future competitive advantage. |
Product Quality Competitive Moats Customer Satisfaction R&D Investment | |
| 2025 Q1 |
GamblingLottomatica is the #1 online & offline B2C gambling operator in Italy with 31% market share online and 30-40% share offline. The investment opportunity lies in Italy's low online gambling penetration at 31% versus 63% in the UK and 75%+ in Scandinavia. Online casino penetration is only 26% in Italy, up from 8% in 2019, with each euro of offline casino gambling that moves online generating 2.6x the EBITDA for Lottomatica. |
Sports Betting Online Casino Market Share Italy Penetration |
ManagementThe fund focuses heavily on management teams with what they call 'the dog in them' - unusually driven, intense people who maintain firm grasp of their business. Their biggest winners were run by such managers while biggest losses came from corporate-speaking, softer managers who blamed external factors during difficult times. They assess management through conversations looking for urgency, intensity, numerical fluency, and passion for product and long-term vision. |
Leadership Execution Work Ethic Product Focus Accountability | |
VolatilityThe manager views volatility as positive for their strategy, providing opportunities to buy great companies cheaply. April's market volatility felt familiar and comforting, similar to when they launched the fund in May 2022 during falling markets. Deep red markets excite them as declining prices open up entirely new opportunity sets previously closed due to valuation. |
Opportunity Valuation Market Timing Dislocations Contrarian | |
| 2024 Q3 |
ValuationManager emphasizes how high multiples significantly damage medium/long-term IRRs, constraining their opportunity set. They focus heavily on valuation as key input for underwriteable returns and downside protection, assuming conservative exit multiples rather than relying on market sentiment. |
Multiple Compression IRR Exit Multiples Downside Protection Conservative Assumptions |
BankingPortfolio concentrated in high-performing regional banks including Halyk Bank (38% ROE), Bank of Georgia (37% ROE), and TBC Bank. These banks trade at extremely low multiples despite strong fundamentals and growth prospects in emerging markets. |
ROE Book Value Dividends Regional Banks Emerging Markets | |
FinTechInvestments in Kaspi and regional banks with superior digital products and superapps. Manager appreciates product-focused leadership and NPS improvements, viewing these as competitive advantages in financial services. |
Superapps Digital Banking NPS Product Focus Financial Services | |
| 2024 Q2 |
PaymentsFocus on cross-border payments companies that save customers money through counter-positioned business models. Cab Payments exemplifies this with its direct banking network bypassing expensive correspondent banking systems, particularly for Africa-focused transfers. |
Cross-border FX Banking Africa Fintech |
DisruptionInvestment philosophy centers on counter-positioned business models that incumbents cannot copy without damaging their existing operations. Examples include PDD's price-focused algorithm versus Alibaba's multi-factor approach, and Wise's direct banking connections versus traditional correspondent banking. |
Counter-positioning Business models Incumbents Scale economies | |
| 2024 Q1 |
ChinaManager discusses selective investment in Chinese markets despite significant risks including property bust, weak consumer recovery, political shifts toward security over growth, and worsening geopolitical tensions. Notes bombed-out valuations in offshore-listed Chinese stocks create exceptional opportunities despite permanently lower multiples. |
Geopolitical Valuations Consumer Property Offshore |
RestaurantsPrimary focus on DPC Dash, Domino's Pizza franchisee in China, highlighting strong unit economics, rapid store expansion potential from 835 to 4,000+ stores, and superior product positioning versus competitors like Pizza Hut. Discusses restaurant sector fatigue in Hong Kong market creating opportunity. |
Franchising Unit Economics Store Growth QSR Brand | |
FoodExtensive analysis of pizza market dynamics in China, including underpenetration versus other markets, localized menu innovations, and competitive advantages through dedicated delivery and superior taste. Emphasizes food delivery market transformation since 2015. |
Pizza Delivery Localization Market Penetration Taste | |
| 2023 Q4 |
FintechKaspi operates as Kazakhstan's dominant super-app combining payments, lending, and e-commerce with ubiquitous usage. The company benefits from weak competition and generates profits across three segments with superior data advantages for underwriting. |
Payments BNPL Super-app Digital Banking QR Payments |
E-commerceKazakhstan's e-commerce penetration remains low at 12% of retail sales, with Kaspi holding 65% market share. The company faces competition from Russian players Ozon and Wildberries but maintains advantages through app integration and lending capabilities. |
Marketplace Logistics Market Share Penetration Competition | |
Emerging MarketsThe fund focuses on Kazakhstan and Georgia for their slower business trends, weak competition, and dominant market positions available at low valuations. These markets offer higher risk-adjusted returns compared to developed markets. |
Kazakhstan Georgia Valuation Competition Liquidity | |
| 2023 Q3 |
CloudManager focuses heavily on high-quality software companies with substantial net cash balances as perfect candidates for averaging down when prices decline. These are mission-critical products with recurring revenue that customers find difficult to turn off, with margins that tend to expand when growth slows. |
Infrastructure SaaS Enterprise Software Recurring Revenue Mission Critical |
CybersecurityHashiCorp's Vault product addresses secrets management, which falls under the cybersecurity bucket and represents a priority area of spend for enterprises. The product helps manage machine-to-machine passwords and credentials, solving major security problems for companies transitioning to cloud infrastructure. |
Secrets Management Enterprise Security Cloud Security Access Management Security Audits | |
| 2023 Q2 |
BankingFocus on Bank of Georgia, a dominant bank in a consolidated Georgian market with 80% market share between top two banks. The bank generates exceptional 24-29% ROEs due to limited competition and strong digital offerings. Management quality is excellent with Western-educated CEOs and conservative capital ratios. |
Banking Georgia Consolidation Digital ROE |
Emerging marketsGeorgia represents an attractive emerging market opportunity following the 2003 Rose Revolution. The country has transformed from near-failed state to pro-Western democracy with low corruption, high economic freedom, and 7% GDP growth. Strategic position as Middle Corridor hub bypassing Russia provides additional tailwinds. |
Georgia Reform Growth Infrastructure Geopolitics | |
| 2023 Q1 |
CybersecurityManager discusses competitive dynamics in identity management and cybersecurity, specifically analyzing Okta versus Microsoft's bundling advantages. The letter details avoiding investments in Crowdstrike, SentinelOne, and GitLab due to concerns about Microsoft's closing product gap in these areas. |
Identity Bundling Competition Product |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | WK | Workiva Inc. | Software - Application | Application Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI-Resistant, Application Software, Audit Management, ESG Reporting, Financial Reporting, margin expansion, Mission-Critical, PE Takeout Candidate, platform consolidation, Regulatory Software, SaaS, SEC Compliance, SOX Compliance, Value, Workflow Platform | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | MOH | Molina Healthcare, Inc. | Health Care | Managed Health Care | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, Costadvantage, Marginrecovery, Medicaid, oligopoly | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | ELV | Elevance Health, Inc. | Health Care | Managed Health Care | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, Managedcare, Marginrecovery, Repricing, valuation | Login |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | MNDY | Monday.com Ltd. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Automation, growth, SaaS, Software, Workflow | Login |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | GTLB | GitLab Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Devops, enterprise, Security, Stickiness | Login |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | BRZE | Braze Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Engagement, Marketing, Personalization, Retention, SaaS | Login |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Timothy Liu | FLYW | Flywire Corp. | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Crossborder, Education, growth, Payments, Stickiness | Login |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | MNDY | Monday.com Ltd. | Software & Services | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI Resilient, SaaS, Software, valuation compression, Work management, Workflow Software | Login |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | GTLB | GitLab Inc. | Software & Services | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition target, AI Beneficiary, Code Management, Devops, duopoly, Enterprise software, high switching costs | Login |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | FLYW | Flywire Corporation | Software & Services | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Cross-Border, Developing Markets, education technology, FX Embedded Pricing, International Payments, Student Visa, University Partnerships | Login |
| May 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | LTO.MI | Lottomatica | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | Borsa Italiana | Digital transformation, Equity, Gambling, Italy, M&A Consolidation, market share gains, Omnichannel, Online Casino, Sports betting | Login |
| Dec 17, 2024 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | KSPI | Kaspi.kz JSC | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition, digital payments, e-commerce, Emerging markets, Fintech, Kazakhstan, super app, Turkey, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Dec 17, 2024 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | BGEO.L | Bank of Georgia Group PLC | Financials | Banks | Bull | London Stock Exchange | acquisition, Armenia, banking, digital banking, Emerging markets, Georgia, market share, ROE, super app, Value | Login |
| Dec 17, 2024 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | TBCG.L | TBC Bank Group PLC | Financials | Banks | Bull | London Stock Exchange | banking, digital banking, Emerging markets, GDP growth, Georgia, management, Market expansion, ROE, Uzbekistan, Value | Login |
| Dec 17, 2024 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | HLYB | Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan JSC | Financials | Banks | Bull | NASDAQ | banking, Conservative Capitalization, dividend yield, Emerging markets, Kazakhstan, market leader, ROE, Value | Login |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | HCP | HashiCorp Inc | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity, Devops, Enterprise software, Infrastructure as Code, Multi Cloud, net cash, Open Source, SaaS, Secrets Management, Value | Login |
| Aug 28, 2023 | Fund Letters | Meditation Capital | BGEO.L | Bank of Georgia | Financials | Banks | Bull | London Stock Exchange | banking, digital banking, Emerging markets, Fintech, Georgia, high ROE, market consolidation, Mobile Banking, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| KVYO | Klaviyo which a little over a year ago traded at peak for 12x NTM sales declined to as low as 2x – an 83% move. We progressively added Workiva, Atlassian, Dynatrace, and Klaviyo. Klaviyo, as customer engagement platforms that help companies send emails and texts and app notifications, historically mainly provided the execution layer, with a human deciding what and when to send; AI gives these companies a new opportunity to additionally sell the 'brain' behind marketing – messages personalized for each customer rather than by broad category, near-fully automated campaigns, intelligent agent responses when customers reply, etc. We prefer companies trading for a low multiple of sales. Klaviyo is in this category. Workiva, Atlassian, Klaviyo, Braze, Dynatrace are all beneficiaries of consolidation. Workiva does not price based on seats. Workiva's pricing is value-based and metrics-based. Braze and Klaviyo do not charge on seats. |
| BRZE | In addition to Braze and Monday which we already owned (Monday we have since reduced due to opportunity cost as all software fell), we progressively added Workiva, Atlassian, Dynatrace, and Klaviyo. Braze and Klaviyo, as customer engagement platforms that help companies send emails and texts and app notifications, historically mainly provided the execution layer, with a human deciding what and when to send; AI gives these companies a new opportunity to additionally sell the 'brain' behind marketing – messages personalized for each customer rather than by broad category, near-fully automated campaigns, intelligent agent responses when customers reply, etc. Braze is a deep domain expert in sending emails, texts, and app push notifications at scale and perfectly (a much harder problem than it sounds, both in engineering and also because deliverability of messages is adversarial against recipient systems that try to filter messages into promotions and spam); the customer is not. Braze, now with AI, is accelerating its disruption of its legacy competitors, Salesforce Marketing Cloud and Adobe Journey Optimizer; and Braze's organic revenue growth accelerated to 27% y/y in its most recent quarter ending April 2026, up from a low of 20% in the year-ago quarter ending April 2025. SpaceX/xAI is a new customer of Braze. Workiva, Atlassian, Klaviyo, Braze, Dynatrace are all beneficiaries of consolidation. Workiva does not price based on seats. Braze and Klaviyo do not charge on seats. |
| MNDY | In addition to Braze and Monday which we already owned (Monday we have since reduced due to opportunity cost as all software fell), we progressively added Workiva, Atlassian, Dynatrace, and Klaviyo. |
| WK | We progressively added Workiva, Atlassian, Dynatrace, and Klaviyo. Workiva is the dominant player in SEC reporting, almost a monopoly for large filers, with 95% of the Fortune 100 and 89% of the S&P 500 as customers. We estimate market share of ~50% of all US filers and ~85% of market cap. Beyond SEC reporting (35% of revenue), Workiva's other solutions include other financial reporting (~30% of revenue, comprising European ESEF reporting, management reporting, statutory reporting, banking and insurance regulatory reporting, etc.); SOX controls/audit/governance (~20% of revenue); and sustainability/ESG reporting (~15% of revenue). Workiva recently won SpaceX as a large customer ahead of its IPO; and scraping Anthropic job postings also reveals them as a multi-solution customer, across financial reporting, internal controls, and SOX compliance. Workiva became so dominant because it solved a nightmarish recurring filing process by building a workflow platform that multiple departments involved in financial filings could work in together. Workiva's Wdesk platform is well-loved by users ('10/10' said one customer we spoke to, and 'blew them [competitor] out of the water' said another) and became a standard in the industry, akin to Microsoft Office. One killer feature is its 'deep linking,' which allows changes in one number to update across all related documents simultaneously, saving a lot of time and preventing errors. Workiva sold off heavily on AI risk (5.2x NTM revenue at 12/1/2025, 2.6x now – a 50% decline). But we believe Workiva is unusually resistant to AI risk vs. other software. Financial reporting data needs to be 100% accurate and auditable/traceable back to origin, not 95% or even 99%, making it unsuitable for AI agents without heavy supervision, within a governed deterministic platform like Workiva's. In the US especially, the stakes are high because the CEO and CFO of a public company have personal liability/legal responsibility around the accuracy of financial statements and the adequacy of internal controls. Workiva software is a multi-player, multi-department workflow system, not a single-player tool. Financial reports are also not only about the final document but also about the whole process that needs to be auditable. Workiva does not price based on seats, making it less exposed to declines in back office headcount. Workiva's pricing is value-based and metrics-based. Workiva is integrating AI into its product to make it better: an internal tie-out agent to check for data inconsistencies, automated MD&A roll-forward and earnings call prep, in-line content generation and editing, automated peer disclosure comparisons, etc. Workiva has introduced a new good/better/best pricing model to capture value. For example, in the first product they've rolled out this pricing model in, SEC Advanced, Workiva charges a 20% pricing uplift vs. the standard product. Workiva is the only true platform in the market, and thus grows by taking share from point solutions. We expect Workiva to grow subscription revenue by ~21% this year. Multi-solution customers are 75% of the revenue base (up 600 bps y/y in 1Q26) but only 45% of total customers. Customers with >$100k in annual contract value are growing 24% y/y, customers >$300k are growing 38%, and customers >$500k are growing 39% y/y. Customer satisfaction and platform essentiality are reflected in Workiva's gross logo retention rate of 97% and net revenue retention rate of 110% ex-FX. Starting in 2025 this changed sharply, as Workiva approached $1 billion in revenue and CEO Julie Iskow decided that a business of that size should operate more efficiently. By late 2025, margins were increasing 1000 bps y/y, and in 1Q26, GAAP operating margin increased 1800 bps. S&M efficiency improved. Workiva in the past year has also upgraded its talent. We've heard great things about Workiva's new Chief Revenue Officer, Michael Pinto. The company has added a new Chief Product Officer, a new CFO, and three new board members with SaaS experience. Workiva's current multiple of 2.6x NTM sales is very low, for a quality business that should have 25-30% GAAP operating margins at maturity (so ~10x mature EBIT). Workiva targets $1.8-2.0 billion in revenue in 2030, up from $1.05 billion in 2026; we model $1.85 billion. Assuming an exit at 4x NTM revenue at year-end 2029, and incorporating assumptions for share dilution as well as FCF generation, we get an IRR of 31%. If the multiple doesn't improve much from current levels, a 3x revenue exit gets an IRR of 23%; a 5x revenue exit pushes the IRR to 39%. We see a plausible downside case of 2.0x 2027 revenue, which would be -20% vs. the current price. We think Workiva would be a prime PE takeout target. If Workiva sells for 5-6x sales, that's a double to double and a half from here. Workiva, Atlassian, Klaviyo, Braze, Dynatrace are all beneficiaries of consolidation. |
| TEAM | We progressively added Workiva, Atlassian, Dynatrace, and Klaviyo. Atlassian 10% layoff and hiring freeze while ARR continues to grow 20%+. Anthropic and SpaceX are heavy users of Atlassian. Workiva, Atlassian, Klaviyo, Braze, Dynatrace are all beneficiaries of consolidation. |
| DT | We progressively added Workiva, Atlassian, Dynatrace, and Klaviyo. Dynatrace new commitment to 'rule of 50' of margins plus growth. What will happen in AI in observability (Dynatrace) which as a category has already started to be repriced as an AI winner. Workiva, Atlassian, Klaviyo, Braze, Dynatrace are all beneficiaries of consolidation. Workiva does not price based on seats. Braze, Klaviyo, and Dynatrace are all in this category. |
| OKTA | Heavy exposure by late 2022, as earnings implosions from Okta and Atlassian blew up the sector. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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