Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 15.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | 17.4% | 11.5% | -16.9% | 42.5% | 29.5% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 15.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | 17.4% | 11.5% | -16.9% | 42.5% | 29.5% |
Merion Road Small Cap Fund returned 8.5% in Q4 2025, bringing full-year returns to 9.2% versus Russell 2000's 12.7%. Manager Aaron Sallen maintains disciplined approach with 16% cash and 48% average beta-adjusted net exposure. Key drivers included Butler National's aerospace recovery with EBITDA growing from $6.5m to $8.8m, successful Bel Fuse capital structure arbitrage reaching all-time highs, and profitable short position that fell 40% on earnings disappointment. New position in Ascent Industries represents specialty chemicals turnaround story with new management from Dow Chemical, pristine balance sheet after debt elimination, and significant operating leverage potential at 50% facility utilization. AI exposure remains at 22% through GOOG, MSFT, and AMZN, though manager feels underweight relative to Magnificent Seven's 34% S&P weighting. Merger arbitrage position in Janus Henderson closed at $49 after initial $46 proposal. Performance attribution shows risk-free rate contributed 4.0%, market exposure 4.2%, and stock selection 1.0% for the year.
Focus on undervalued small-cap opportunities with strong fundamentals, turnaround potential, and special situations while maintaining disciplined risk management through cash reserves and selective positioning
Manager expresses comfort with current positioning and does not manage to monthly or yearly performance, focusing on long-term outperformance while managing risks
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ACNT, AMZN, BELFA, BUKS, GOOG, JHG, MSFT | aerospace, AI, arbitrage, Chemicals, Long/Short, small cap, value |
JHG BELFB ACNT |
Manager maintains 22% AI exposure through GOOG, MSFT, and AMZN, though feels this is large but remains underweight relative to the S&P 500 where Magnificent Seven account for 34%. Acknowledges elevated S&P returns were concentrated among largest AI-exposed companies. Built position in Ascent Industries, a specialty chemicals company transforming from over-levered conglomerate to pure-play with pristine balance sheet. New management from Dow Chemical and turnaround experience addressing poor operations, with facilities at 50% utilization offering significant operating leverage potential. Butler National showed strong performance with EBITDA increasing from $6.5m to $8.8m, with aerospace revenue, margins, and backlog all moving up meaningfully. Company, management, and board continue buying stock despite higher share price. |
| Oct 28 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AMWD, BELFA, VCTR | Corporate Governance, defense, Drones, Housing, M&A |
KTOS VCTR AMWD BELFA KTOS VCTR AMWD BELFA |
The fund gained on strong performance from defense contractor Kratos, benefiting from rising U.S. military drone demand and improved long-term visibility. Management added exposure to housing through American Woodmarks merger with Masterbrand, expecting synergies and tariff support amid easing rates. The letter also detailed a governance-driven arbitrage in Bel Fuse, highlighting potential share class consolidation and corporate reform catalysts. |
| Jul 15 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Capital discipline, defense, efficiency, small caps, specialization | KTOS | The commentary emphasizes niche small-cap opportunities with exposure to defense, infrastructure, and asset-heavy businesses. Management highlights speed, cost efficiency, and specialized capabilities as competitive advantages. Defense modernization and capital discipline are key long-term drivers. |
| Apr 8 2025 | 2025 Q1 | BSET | - | - | |
| Jan 31 2025 | 2024 Q4 | BELFA, CLH, GOOG, MCEM, UBAB, VCTR | - | - | |
| Oct 29 2024 | 2024 Q3 | CURB, UBAB | - | - | |
| Jul 14 2024 | 2024 Q2 | LAKE, MSA, NAPA, UBAB, VCTR | - | - | |
| May 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | BSET, CLH | - | - | |
| Jan 22 2024 | 2023 Q4 | NAPA, SGA, SUM, UNTC | - | - | |
| Oct 21 2023 | 2023 Q3 | DSGR, KLG | - | - | |
| Jul 15 2023 | 2023 Q2 | DSGR, EDR, WWE | - | - | |
| Apr 20 2023 | 2023 Q1 | RFIL, WCC | - | - | |
| Jan 19 2023 | 2022 Q4 | CPRT, CRMT, FERG, GOOG, MHH, MWA, UBAB, WHG | - | - | |
| Oct 10 2022 | 2022 Q3 | CRMT, FERG, GOOG, PTON, SIX | - | - | |
| Jul 31 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 30 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
SpaceSpace is becoming part of everyday life with satellites supporting internet, defense, navigation, and climate monitoring. SpaceX has led efforts to lower launch costs by 95%, making supply cheaper and expanding viable missions. |
Space Satellites Launch SpaceX Commercial Space | |
Specialty ChemicalsAscent Industries represents a significant position focused on specialty chemical manufacturing. The company is transforming into a 'Chemicals-as-a-Service' model, providing customized solutions for small to mid-size customers neglected by larger players. |
Specialty Chemicals Manufacturing Niche Markets Chemical Services | |
| 2025 Q3 |
DefenseThe team initiated a position in Curtiss-Wright, believing the company is entering a period where multiple near-term growth drivers are converging, including rising defense budgets, commercial aerospace production ramps, nuclear power plant life extensions and new builds, and submarine production. |
Defense Budgets Aerospace Nuclear Submarines |
HousingStructural shortage of housing in the USA with higher mortgage rates reducing existing home supply as homeowners are locked into low-rate mortgages. New homebuilders capturing increasing share of home sales as they can buy-down mortgages to lower rates. |
Homebuilders Building Materials Mortgage Construction | |
| 2025 Q2 |
DefenseThe team initiated a position in Curtiss-Wright, believing the company is entering a period where multiple near-term growth drivers are converging, including rising defense budgets, commercial aerospace production ramps, nuclear power plant life extensions and new builds, and submarine production. |
Defense Budgets Aerospace Nuclear Submarines |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Aaron Sallen | ACNT | Ascent Industries Co. | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | NASDAQ | deleveraging, Margins, operating leverage, specialty chemicals, turnaround | Login |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Fund Letters | Aaron Sallen | KTOS | Kratos Defense & Security Solutions | Industrials | Defense Technology | Bull | NASDAQ | Aerospace, Contracts, Defense, Drones, growth, Procurement, Production | Login |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Fund Letters | Aaron Sallen | VCTR | Victory Capital Holdings | Financials | Asset Management | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition, asset management, buybacks, cashflow, Distribution, synergy, valuation | Login |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Fund Letters | Aaron Sallen | AMWD | American Woodmark | Consumer Discretionary | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Housing, leadership, manufacturing, merger, synergies, tariffs, valuation | Login |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Fund Letters | Aaron Sallen | BELFA | BEL Fuse Inc. | Information Technology | Electronic Components | Bull | NASDAQ | arbitrage, electronics, Governance, management, merger, restructuring, valuation | Login |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Fund Letters | Aaron Sallen | KTOS | Kratos Defense & Security Solutions | Industrials | Defense Technology | Bull | NASDAQ | Aerospace, Contracts, Defense, Drones, growth, Procurement, Production | Login |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Fund Letters | Aaron Sallen | VCTR | Victory Capital Holdings | Financials | Asset Management | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition, asset management, buybacks, cashflow, Distribution, synergy, valuation | Login |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Fund Letters | Aaron Sallen | AMWD | American Woodmark | Consumer Discretionary | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Housing, leadership, manufacturing, merger, synergies, tariffs, valuation | Login |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Fund Letters | Aaron Sallen | BELFA | BEL Fuse Inc. | Information Technology | Electronic Components | Bull | NASDAQ | arbitrage, electronics, Governance, management, merger, restructuring, valuation | Login |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Aaron Sallen | KTOS | Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NASDAQ | Contracting, Defense, Drones, Hypersonics, innovation | Login |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Aaron Sallen | JHG | Janus Henderson Group plc | Financials | Asset Management | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | asset management, Event-driven, IRR, Merger Arbitrage, Takeout | Login |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Aaron Sallen | BELFB | Bel Fuse Inc. Class B | Information Technology | Electronic Components | Bull | NASDAQ | arbitrage, capital structure, Dual-Class, electronics, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ACNT | Ascent Industries is specialty chemical manufacturer. It is the seventh largest position in our fund and has a $150m market cap. Founded in 1945, Ascent Industries began as a special chemical manufacturing business but spent decades diversifying into stainless steel, fiberglass tanks, and pipe & tubing. Years of mismanagement under an operationally inexperienced team left the stock flat for nearly two decades, burdened by rising debt, declining earnings, and bloated corporate costs. Brian Kitchen was brought in to lead the specialty chemicals division, becoming CEO of the entire company by 2024. Brian and his team are transforming the business into what he calls a 'Chemicals-as-a-Service' model – further carving out their niche as a one-stop solution for small and mid-size businesses neglected by the larger players. |
| AMZN | One company we own that we think has unique positioning to benefit from both the infrastructure and application layers is Amazon. Amazon's logistical prowess is one of the foremost moats in business today and it can and will be enhanced with AI. The company will do this in multiple ways, with better orchestration of its logistics assets and underlying cargo, as well as the buildout of more capable, sophisticated and robust robotics. Amazon is singularly well positioned to dominate the coordination layer, with AI's help, across its entire logistics network. |
| BELFA | Last letter I discussed the capital structure arbitrage whereby I bet on the discount of the A & B shares collapsing. In November both classes of equity sold off on their Q3 earnings release, a report that I actually viewed positively. I took that opportunity to cover our shorts thereby positioning us to make money based on both a) overall valuations recovering and b) the B discount shrinking. Since then, both classes of equity have reached all-time highs and the spread currently sits in the single digits. |
| BUKS | BUKS issued their Q2 report with EBITDA increasing from $6.5m to $8.8m. Importantly, aerospace revenue, margins, and backlog have all moved up meaningfully. The company, management, and board of directors continue to buy stock despite the higher share price. |
| GOOG | From the moment OpenAI hit the scene with ChatGPT 3.5 in the Fall of 2022, Google was a perceived loser and thousands of pontificators warned about the end of search. Fast forward three years and this was Google Search's fastest quarter of revenue growth since Q1 2022, when the reopening and pandemic were still considerable drivers of results. In parallel with the Search re-acceleration, Google has also emerged as a leader in AI itself. This combination has been potent for Google's stock and could not have opened on Search alone, given the terminal value fears. |
| JHG | During the quarter I acquired shares in Janus Henderson Group ("JHG") after they received a non-binding acquisition proposal by their largest shareholder to acquire the company at $46.00. With the stock trading below this initial salvo and at a relatively modest premium to its unaffected price, I viewed the risk / return profile to be attractive. I acquired shares over the next few weeks as the market continued to doubt the likelihood of an eventual transaction. A definitive agreement was reached at the end of December to sell the company at a price of $49.00 / share. I continue to own shares as the IRR to close remains attractive. |
| MSFT | MSFT was a detractor in 4Q25 following its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings report released on October 29. While results were better than expected operationally, investor reaction was driven by guidance and capital expenditure intensity rather than headline performance. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations, and Azure revenue increased 39% year-over-year, also ahead of estimates. However, management guided to a sequential deceleration in Azure growth in fiscal Q2, signaling some moderation after a period of exceptional demand. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||