| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 12.5% | 7.7% |
Middle Coast Investing's Q2 2026 letter describes a market increasingly driven by basket trading and trends rather than individual company fundamentals. The portfolio returned 12.5% net in Q2 versus 14.9% for the S&P 500, bringing YTD returns to 7.7% versus 9.6% for the index. The manager extensively analyzes market baskets including hyperscalers whose AI spending is crushing free cash flow, semiconductor and data center beneficiaries that have soared, perceived AI victims including software and middleman businesses, and travel/aerospace stocks affected by geopolitical tensions. Despite strong individual company results like Corpay's triple beat or TripAdvisor's $700M asset sale, stocks often traded more on basket sentiment than company news. The manager added positions in CDW, S&P Global, and Microsoft while trimming winners like Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom. Cash declined from 15.5% to 13.7% as the manager sold 11% more positions than bought. Top holdings include Amazon at 10.4%, Apple at 6.1%, and Astronics at 5.9%. The manager emphasizes understanding basket dynamics to contextualize movements while maintaining focus on individual company fundamentals and valuation.
The manager invests in a diversified portfolio of primarily small and mid-cap value stocks across multiple sectors, focusing on individual company fundamentals while acknowledging that in 2026 the market increasingly trades on baskets and trends rather than company-specific factors. The portfolio maintains meaningful exposure to aerospace, travel, financials, and data center beneficiaries, with the manager seeking to understand market basket dynamics to contextualize stock movements without losing focus on underlying business quality and valuation.
The manager expects the market to continue trading on baskets and trends rather than individual company fundamentals. They plan to focus on understanding basket patterns to make sense of stock movements and know when to readjust portfolios, whether riding a lucky tailwind or running against the crowd. The manager emphasizes doing best when focusing on what's happening at individual companies, but acknowledges knowing what's happening at the sector or basket level is valuable for timing portfolio adjustments and maintaining composure in a fascinating but not always easy to manage market.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2 2026 | 2026 Q2 | AAPL, AER, AMZN, ATRO, AVGO, BKNG, CCK, CDW, COF, CPAY, ECG, FG, GOOG, HNI, LULU, MSFT, OMAB, PGR, SNX, TRIP | aerospace, AI, consumer spending, Market Baskets, semiconductors, SMID Cap, Travel, value |
CDW SPGI |
Middle Coast Investing returned 12.5% in Q2 2026 as markets traded on baskets rather than fundamentals. Semiconductors and data center stocks soared while hyperscalers faced AI profitability doubts. The manager trimmed winners, added CDW and S&P Global at attractive valuations, and reduced cash to 13.7%. Despite strong company-specific results, stocks traded on sector sentiment. The portfolio maintains concentrated exposure to aerospace, travel, and financials with disciplined valuation focus. |
| Apr 10 2026 | 2026 Q1 | BKNG, COF, DUOL, GTLB, LYFT, PGR, SARO | aerospace, AI, insurance, Memes, technology, Travel, volatility |
PGR BKNG GTLB FG SARO DUOL |
Middle Coast Investing navigated Q1 2026's meme-driven market volatility by focusing on quality companies with strong balance sheets and adaptable management. Despite AI disruption fears and geopolitical tensions, the fund added aerospace and travel positions while maintaining conviction in long-term winners. The strategy emphasizes playing for time rather than chasing market themes. |
| Jan 9 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, ABM, AER, AMZN, APOG, ATKR, ATRO, AVGO, BHF, CCK, COF, CPAY, ECG, FG, GOGO, GOOG, HI, HNI, HURC, LULU, LYFT, MLKN, OMAB, PAGS, PGR, PTLO, SCHW, TRIP, WS | Bottom-up, Cash, Defensive, Office Furniture, risk management, value | - | Middle Coast Investing delivered 16.9% returns in 2025 through disciplined bottom-up value investing but enters 2026 defensively positioned with elevated cash levels. Focus remains on attractively priced companies like office furniture plays positioned for return-to-office recovery while maintaining strict risk management to avoid blow-ups during uncertain market conditions. |
| Oct 2 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, AER, AMZN, ATRO, AVGO, COF, CPAY, DALN, FCNCA, GOGO, GOOG, LULU, LYFT, MSFT, OMAB, PGR, PTLO, SCS, TRIP, TSM | AI, buyouts, insurance, semiconductors, technology, value |
CORP US GOGO US HI US BHF US TFSL US AL US |
Middle Coast Investing outperformed in Q3 2025 driven by four portfolio buyouts, maintaining cautious AI exposure through infrastructure plays rather than speculative stocks. The value-focused manager trims overvalued positions while seeking mispriced opportunities, holding 14.6% cash with natural skepticism toward AI bubble dynamics but remaining open to selective participation in growth themes. |
| Jul 9 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AAPL, ABM, AER, AMZN, ATRO, AVGO, BOOM, COF, DECK, ECG, FCNCA, FG, HSY, LEVI, LULU, LYFT, OMAB, PGR, SCHW, SCS, SJM, TRIP, VMEO, WS | Apparel, financials, inflation, small caps, tariffs, technology, value |
LYFT DECK ABM TRIP LYFT DECK |
Middle Coast delivered solid Q2 performance while maintaining caution despite market highs. The manager focuses on boring, cheap companies that can grow in any climate, adding defensive bonds and hedges. New positions in beaten-down Lyft and Deckers reflect opportunistic value investing. Despite tariff uncertainty easing, risks from government volatility and geopolitics warrant continued defensive positioning. |
| Apr 11 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AAPL, AER, AMZN, ATKR, ATRO, AVGO, BRK.B, CCK, DALN, DFS, ECG, FCNCA, LULU, OMAB, PGR, PTLO, SCHW, SCS, SON, TRIP | aerospace, Airports, infrastructure, insurance, technology, Trade Policy, volatility |
ECG SON GOOG |
Middle Coast navigated Q1 volatility better than benchmarks by raising cash and reducing risk exposure. Trump administration's policy unpredictability drove defensive positioning while maintaining core holdings in quality companies like Progressive and Amazon. Infrastructure and aerospace themes remain attractive despite tariff headwinds. Elevated cash levels provide flexibility to capitalize on opportunities in an increasingly volatile environment. |
| Jan 8 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, ACLS, ADM, AER, AMZN, ATKR, ATRO, AVGO, BKNG, DFS, EB, FCNCA, FG, LULU, OMAB, PGR, PTLO, SCS, TRIP, TSM | Portfolio Management, Restaurants, small caps, technology, Travel, value |
PTLO TRIP |
Middle Coast Investing beat small-cap benchmarks in 2024 while building concentrated positions in technology leaders and travel companies. The manager deployed cash during Q4, adding restaurant chain Portillo's and travel platform TripAdvisor. With Amazon and Apple as top holdings representing 26% of the portfolio, the strategy balances growth themes with value opportunities across market caps. |
| Oct 4 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AAPL, ABM, ACLS, AER, AMZN, APOG, ATKR, AVGO, BKNG, BOOM, DFS, EB, FCNCA, FG, GOGO, LULU, OMAB, PGR, SCHW, VMEO | financials, industrials, insurance, small caps, technology, Transitions, value |
ATKR APOG ABM BOOM |
Middle Coast Investing lagged in Q3 as portfolio companies navigated business transitions. Progressive Insurance exemplifies successful transition management while Axcelis and Atkore face cyclical headwinds. Fed dovishness supports soft landing hopes, benefiting financial holdings. Manager added selective new positions and increased cash to 17.1%, maintaining conviction in undervalued small-caps despite near-term volatility. |
| Jul 8 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, ACLS, AER, AMZN, ARLO, ATKR, ATRO, AVGO, BKNG, DFS, FCNCA, FG, GOGO, LULU, NVDA, OMAB, PGR, SJM, TSM, VOW3.DE | Discipline, Portfolio Management, small caps, stock selection, value |
LULU ATRO SJM GOGO |
Middle Coast Investing posted 4.0% Q2 returns through disciplined value investing in quality companies at reasonable prices. The manager avoided AI momentum while adding positions in Lululemon, Astronics, and J.M. Smucker as contrarian plays. Portfolio remains concentrated in 15 core holdings with focus on 2-3 year appreciation potential rather than quarterly performance. |
| Apr 2 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AAPL, ACLS, ADM, AER, AMZN, ARLO, ATKR, AVGO, BKNG, DBX, DFS, EB, FCNCA, FG, OMAB, PGR, SNX, SPOT, VMEO, WS | Cyclical, financials, industrials, Portfolio Management, Selling, small caps, technology, value |
ADM SNX VMEO |
Middle Coast Investing returned 5.2% in Q1 2024, lagging the market while focusing on disciplined selling decisions. The manager sold Dropbox after disappointing results, held Progressive as auto repair costs stabilized, and added cyclical value plays like grain trader ADM. Cash deployment continued with levels falling to 14.7% as the value-focused strategy emphasized buying quality companies at attractive multiples. |
| Jan 3 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, ACLS, ARLO, ATKR, AVGO, BKNG, DBX, DFS, EB, FCNCA, FG, KBAL, OMAB, PGR, SCHW, SCS, SPOT, TSM, VMW, WOR, WS | Banking, industrials, semiconductors, small cap, technology, value |
ANEB FCNCA EWORK.ST OMAB DFS ACLS |
Middle Coast delivered 47% returns in 2023 by capitalizing on AI semiconductor rallies and banking crisis opportunities while maintaining 20% cash positions. The disciplined value approach benefited from market dislocations in quality companies like F&G Annuities and Axcelis Technologies. Despite strong performance, the manager remains cautiously optimistic for 2024, focusing on undervalued companies with 50% upside potential. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIThe manager discusses AI extensively through the lens of market baskets, particularly hyperscalers whose free cash flow is plummeting as they build out data centers, and the data center/semiconductor beneficiaries whose stocks have soared. The manager also identifies perceived AI victims including software companies and middleman businesses that the market believes will be disrupted or replaced by AI. |
Hyperscalers Data Centers Semiconductors Software Disruption |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor stocks and data center buildout related stocks soared during Q2 2026. The SOXX semiconductor ETF rose 76% from March 2025 to March 2026, and another 95% through June 2026. The manager notes these businesses are most susceptible to the music stopping if AI buildouts slow, but currently benefit from durable capital expenditures. |
SOXX Data Centers Capital Expenditures AI Infrastructure | |
TravelTravel stocks are described as a sub-basket of consumer spending that gets a double dose of geopolitical concerns from war and economic concerns from higher gas prices. Despite these headwinds, the manager emphasizes that investors underestimate travel demand at their portfolio's peril, suggesting resilient underlying fundamentals. |
Airlines Airports Geopolitical Risk Consumer Demand | |
AerospaceAerospace stocks trade more favorably than travel stocks despite sharing the common driver of global air travel demand. The manager notes the market gives aerospace more credit, presumably because the backlog in demand will take years to resolve, and temporary travel spending hiccups don't deter longer-term demand for planes being built. |
Aircraft Backlog Defense Long-term Demand | |
Consumer SpendingConsumer spending stocks are exposed to broader economic trends and beliefs about disposable income. Inflation fears related to the Iran war hit these stocks harder, though they recovered as the war tapered off. The manager notes these stocks trade more on sentimental currents than actual results, with the tie between AI spending, job cuts, and disposable income yet to be proven. |
Inflation Disposable Income Economic Trends Sentiment | |
Market BasketsThe manager extensively discusses how the market trades on baskets and trends rather than company fundamentals in 2026. When trends and fundamentals conflict, trends win out. The manager finds it useful to identify basket patterns to understand market movements, know what's supposedly going on, and provide context for when individual company news doesn't drive stock performance as expected. |
Trends Sector Rotation Market Dynamics Fundamentals | |
| 2026 Q1 |
AIManager discusses how AI and LLMs are creating market volatility and fears about disrupting various industries including software, travel, and white-collar jobs. However, the manager believes companies like Booking Holdings are actually benefiting from AI cost savings and that fears about AI replacing developers are overblown as developers are writing more code than ever. |
LLMs Software Automation Disruption Productivity |
AerospaceThe manager highlights aerospace as a winning sector due to Boeing and Airbus ramping up production to address COVID-era gaps and safety issues. There remains a years-long backlog in demand for new planes, supporting both aircraft manufacturing and maintenance businesses like Standard Aero. |
Boeing Airbus Aircraft Maintenance Backlog | |
TravelDespite various headwinds including economic fears, geopolitical events, and AI threats, travel companies like Booking Holdings continue to show strong fundamentals. The manager notes Booking is growing faster than peers, has bought back significant shares, and management believes AI companies won't compete directly in travel booking. |
Online Travel Booking Recovery Geopolitical Competition | |
Auto InsuranceProgressive faces challenges from slower customer growth and potential disruption from autonomous vehicles, but the manager believes the company's strong management team and competitive advantages position it well to adapt. The stock trades at attractive valuations despite these concerns. |
Progressive Autonomous Pricing Competition Adaptation | |
Private CreditThe manager notes market fears about private credit potentially causing the next financial crisis, particularly affecting companies like F&G Annuities & Life that have exposure to alternative investments through partnerships with firms like Blackstone. |
Alternatives Blackstone Underwriting Financial Crisis Risk | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager acknowledges AI was a major driver of S&P 500 performance in 2025, with the Magnificent Seven leading tech stocks at the forefront. Only four of their top 12 performing stocks were AI-related plays, showing they benefited from AI but kept pace through other investments. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Magnificent Seven |
ValueManager emphasizes bottom-up investing approach, reading about many companies and picking stocks that look like good values. They focus on finding companies that will do better in years ahead when stocks are priced attractively, combining good companies with fair prices. |
Bottom-up Valuation Stock Selection | |
OfficeManager has invested in office furniture companies for a decade, believing the return to office theme hasn't played out but might soon. They see order growth improving across major players and expect office renovations and return-to-office trends to drive future performance. |
Office Furniture Return to Office Commercial Real Estate | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIManager discusses AI cautiously, experimenting with it for business operations and research but finding limited practical value so far. Views AI as creating a bubble environment similar to the internet bubble, with many participants admitting it's in a bubble phase. Invests selectively in AI-related companies but maintains natural skepticism. |
Artificial Intelligence Bubble Technology Automation Research |
BuybacksFour portfolio companies were bought out during the quarter, including Dallas News, WideOpenWest, Vimeo, and Steelcase. These buyouts provided significant portfolio boost and were a major driver of Q3 performance. Manager actively seeks merger arbitrage opportunities and companies that may be acquisition targets. |
Mergers Acquisitions Takeovers Deal Premium | |
ValueManager emphasizes finding opportunities others are not seeing properly, focusing on companies trading at attractive valuations. Mentions specific valuation metrics like P/E ratios and seeks stocks that appear cheap relative to fundamentals. Portfolio P/E of 22.5 compared to broader market. |
Valuation P/E Ratio Undervalued Cheap Fundamentals | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyThe Trump administration has backed off its most extreme tariff positions but tariffs remain higher than before April 2nd. The administration has expressed admiration for current tariff levels of 30% for China, varied tariffs for NAFTA partners, and at least 10% for the rest of the world. One trade deal has been reached with Vietnam entailing 20% tariffs on Vietnamese goods and 40% on third-party goods shipped through Vietnam. |
Tariffs Vietnam China NAFTA Trade |
ApparelHigher-priced fashion and apparel companies have been most directly caught up in tariff crosswinds. The uncertainty related to tariffs has at least clarified with the Vietnam trade deal, which gives clarity to the apparel industry that produces much of its goods in Vietnam. The manager believes they have seen the worst of the tariff impact for now. |
Fashion Vietnam Tariffs Manufacturing Footwear | |
InflationInflation has for the most part not spiked up, though this could change as the dollar weakens compared to countries the US imports goods from. Interest rates will likely go somewhat lower by the end of the year, which is positive for the economy and markets. Car insurance should be in a getting cheaper cycle unless used car inflation strikes due to tariffs. |
Interest Rates Dollar Insurance Autos | |
| 2025 Q1 |
VolatilityManager expects continued volatility due to Trump administration's erratic policy approach and indifference to stock market performance. Planning to be quicker about buying and selling to take advantage of volatility, with raised cash levels to navigate uncertain environment. |
Policy Trump Uncertainty Cash Trading |
Trade PolicyTariff announcements and trade policy changes are creating market disruption and affecting individual companies. Manager notes the slapdash way tariffs were calculated and expects increased costs to be passed through to customers where possible. |
Tariffs China Mexico Costs Policy | |
InfrastructureInvestment in Everus Construction Group reflects focus on power lines, pipelines, and energy infrastructure buildout. Revenue backlog grew 38% in 2024, driven by renewable energy, data centers, and grid hardening demand. |
Construction Power Grid Energy Backlog | |
InsuranceProgressive showing strong performance with 18% policy growth and combined ratio below 85. Manager sees Progressive extending its lead despite competition and climate change risks, potentially becoming top holding. |
Auto Growth Profitability Competition Climate | |
| 2024 Q4 |
TravelTravel is the manager's favorite sector to study and has paid off over the years. TripAdvisor's Viator business finally passed legacy TripAdvisor in revenue in Q3 2024, with the race between Viator's growth and legacy decline now seeming winnable. The manager views travel as offering continued opportunities. |
Online Travel Hotels Entertainment Airlines Restaurants |
RestaurantsPortillo's is a Chicago-based restaurant chain known for hot dogs and Italian beef sandwiches. The company is focused on building restaurants in the Sun Belt with impressive sales per restaurant basis. The manager sees room for growth despite valuation concerns and same-store sales challenges. |
Foodservice Food Quick Commerce Specialty Retail Consumer Finance Retail | |
TechnologyLarge technological companies have favorable characteristics that lead them to win, representing a super theme since the financial crisis. The manager acknowledges not totally missing out from this theme through positions in companies like Amazon, Apple, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor. |
Cloud AI Semiconductors Software Data Centers | |
| 2024 Q3 |
SemiconductorsAxcelis, a semiconductor equipment maker, is caught between slowing electric vehicle demand and delayed memory chip recovery. The company has gained market share and maintains a strong balance sheet despite current headwinds. Micron's recent earnings suggest memory recovery may be approaching. |
Memory Equipment Cycles Recovery EVs |
InsuranceProgressive Insurance exemplifies successful transition management, overcoming used car repair cost inflation through early price increases and growing policies faster than competitors. F&G Annuities benefits from clients seeking to lock in high annuity returns while rates remain elevated. |
Auto Insurance Pricing Annuities Rates Growth | |
FinancialsFinancial companies are positioned as big winners in a soft landing scenario. Discover is cleaning up past problems and strengthening its business. First Citizens successfully integrates Silicon Valley Bank acquisition and stands to benefit from startup funding recovery. |
Banks Integration Recovery Soft Landing Credit | |
IndustrialsAtkore faces pricing pressure as pandemic-era price increases normalize, with management uncertain about timing of the bottom. Despite lawsuit risks, infrastructure spending and data center demand provide positive momentum drivers for the PVC pipe and conduit maker. |
Infrastructure Pricing Data Centers Construction Materials | |
| 2024 Q2 |
ValueManager emphasizes buying quality companies at reasonable prices, gravitating toward cheaper, lower earnings-multiple stocks where price doesn't reflect potential value. Focus on finding stocks that will be worth more in 2-3 years than current market price suggests. |
Value Investing Quality Multiples Undervalued Price |
Small CapsPortfolio tilted toward smaller companies as they are more likely to be misunderstood and can grow faster than large companies. Manager believes biggest companies can't grow faster than the market forever and smaller names offer better opportunities. |
Small Cap Growth Misunderstood Beaten Track Contrarian | |
AIAcknowledges AI and Nvidia's strong performance but maintains discipline against chasing trends. Notes that while AI stocks are performing well, it's dangerous to chase waves as they usually crash to shore. |
Artificial Intelligence Nvidia Technology Trends Hype | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Ag TradingArchers-Daniels-Midland is one of the biggest grain traders in the world, part of the ABCD group that controls 90% of global grain trade. The company is cyclical and peaked in 2022 as the Russia invasion of Ukraine caused grain prices to go up, now closer to the bottom of a cycle. Buying a company with a strong balance sheet at less than 10x bottom earnings usually works out well. |
Grains Commodities Trading Cyclical Ukraine |
Auto PartsWorthington Steel takes raw steel and turns it into more useful products for auto makers, tractor companies, construction businesses, and electrical companies. It is also in part a commodity company, tied to the price of steel. Commodity companies and auto parts suppliers usually trade cheaply, as they are very cyclical and thus volatile in performance. |
Steel Auto Cyclical Manufacturing Commodity | |
SemiconductorsAxcelis has benefited from machine sales to companies that make chips for cars, including electric vehicles, hybrids and the electronification of the car. The company forecast no growth in revenue this year and potentially lower earnings, while sticking to its growth target for 2025. There is fear that air is going out of the electric vehicles balloon. |
Chips Electric Vehicles Equipment Automotive Growth | |
Credit CardsDiscover Financial Services agreed to merge with Capital One Financial, another major credit card issuer. The deal seems like a good match as Capital One is a founder-led upstart with a huge brand name, and Discover brings a payments network that could better compete with Visa and Mastercard. The deal might not go through due to regulatory scrutiny. |
Payments Merger Networks Regulation Competition | |
P&C InsuranceProgressive digested inflation in used car repair costs to reach its target profitability by the end of 2023. The company's first two months of 2024 suggest that used car repair costs just maybe have stabilized or dropped, making Progressive dramatically more profitable. Progressive has still been able to grow its customer base. |
Auto Insurance Inflation Profitability Growth Costs | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIAI investment excitement boosted semiconductor holdings including Axcelis Technologies, VMWare, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor. Broadcom benefits from AI investments as a leading semiconductor company, though its stock is expensive. The AI rally in May/June was one of the violent market rallies that engenders caution. |
Semiconductors Computing Investment Rally Hype |
SemiconductorsMultiple semiconductor companies performed well, with Axcelis selling tools to help produce less sophisticated semiconductors for cars. The semiconductor cycle benefited from electric vehicle demand and new chip plant buildouts. Concerns exist about sustainability of growth after new plants are built and US-China tensions. |
Equipment Manufacturing Automotive Cycle Growth | |
Electric VehiclesElectric vehicles drove demand for Axcelis's semiconductor tools and benefited Worthington Steel through electrical grid upgrades and green energy initiatives. The EV theme supports companies building less sophisticated semiconductors used in cars and infrastructure upgrades. |
Automotive Infrastructure Grid Energy Transition | |
Regional BanksThe March regional bank crisis provided opportunities to build positions in F&G Annuities & Life and Charles Schwab. First Citizens Bank was purchased after acquiring Silicon Valley Bank assets, trading near tangible book value while earning more than typical banks at that valuation. |
Crisis Opportunity Valuation Acquisition Recovery |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | CDW | CDW Corporation | Information Technology Services | Technology Distributors | Bull | NASDAQ | contrarian, IT Solutions, Low Valuation Multiple, market sentiment, software distribution, Technology Distributor, Value | Login |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | SPGI | S&P Global | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges | Financial Exchanges & Data | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI disruption risk, credit ratings, financial data, Index Provider, market intelligence, Quality, spin-off, valuation opportunity | Login |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | PGR | Progressive Corporation | Insurance - Property & Casualty | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Auto Insurance, autonomous vehicles, Customer growth, Cyclical, Pricing power, Property & Casualty, Value | Login |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | BKNG | Booking Holdings | Travel Services | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | AI disruption, e-commerce, international exposure, Online Travel, Platform business, Share Buybacks, Travel Technology | Login |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | GTLB | GitLab Inc | Software - Infrastructure | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI tools, Developer Productivity, Devops, Growth Software, SaaS, Software Development, takeover target | Login |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | FG | F&G Annuities & Life | Insurance - Life | Life & Health Insurance | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | alternative investments, Annuities, Book Value, interest rate sensitivity, life insurance, Private Credit, Share Buybacks | Login |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | SARO | Standard Aero | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Aerospace, aftermarket services, Aircraft Maintenance, Aviation Cycle, Industrials, LEAP Engines, Value | Login |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | DUOL | Duolingo Inc | Software - Application | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI disruption, Edtech, freemium model, gamification, Language learning, Mobile App, User growth | Login |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Shvartsman | CORP US | Corpay Inc. | Other | Payments | Bull | NYSE | Acquisitions, Corporate-payments, diversification, growth, Oil-hedge, Payments, valuation | Login |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Shvartsman | GOGO US | Gogo Inc. | Communication Services | Wireless Services | Bull | NASDAQ | 5G, Aviation, Competition, growth, Satellite, turnaround | Login |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Shvartsman | HI US | Hillenbrand Inc. | Industrials | Machinery | Bull | NYSE | buyout, dividend, Industrials, M&A, machinery, Plastics, Value | Login |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Shvartsman | BHF US | Brighthouse Financial Inc. | Financials | Life Insurance | Neutral | NASDAQ | Annuities, Insurance, M&A, Risk, spin-off, valuation | Login |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Shvartsman | TFSL US | TFS Financial Corp. | Financials | Banks | Bull | NASDAQ | banking, defensive, dividend, Interest rates, Mutual-structure, yield | Login |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Shvartsman | AL US | Air Lease Corp. | Industrials | Aircraft Leasing | Bull | NYSE | Aircraft, arbitrage, Leasing, M&A, Short-term, Value | Login |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Shvartsman | LYFT | Lyft Inc. | Industrials | Ground Transportation | Bull | NASDAQ | cashflow, growth, mobility, Ridesharing, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Shvartsman | DECK | Deckers Outdoor Corp. | Consumer Discretionary | Footwear | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Brand, Footwear, growth, tariffs, valuation | Login |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Shvartsman | ABM | ABM Industries Inc. | Industrials | Facilities Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | energy, Facilities, Microgrid, Recurring, services | Login |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Shvartsman | TRIP | TripAdvisor Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media | Bull | NASDAQ | Activism, growth, marketplace, Travel, valuation | Login |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | LYFT | Lyft Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | duopoly, growth, international expansion, new management, Ridesharing, SaaS, technology, Transportation, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | DECK | Deckers Outdoor Corporation | Consumer Discretionary | Footwear | Bull | NYSE | Athletic Shoes, brand portfolio, Consumer Discretionary, Footwear, growth, Hoka, tariffs, UGG, Value, Vietnam | Login |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | ECG | Everus Construction Group | Industrials | Construction & Engineering | Bull | NASDAQ | construction, Cyclical, energy infrastructure, infrastructure, Pipelines, Power Lines, spin-off, Value | Login |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | SON | Sonoco Products | Materials | Paper Packaging | Bull | NYSE | consumer staples, debt reduction, defensive, Food Packaging, Metal, Packaging, Paper, Value | Login |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, autonomous vehicles, Large-cap tech, Regulatory Breakup, Search, Value, Waymo, YouTube | Login |
| Jan 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | PTLO | Portillo's Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Restaurants | Bull | NASDAQ | Chicago, Fast casual, Free cash flow positive, Geographic Expansion, Private Equity Overhang, Restaurant Chain, same-store sales, Sun Belt, Value | Login |
| Jan 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | TRIP | TripAdvisor Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Experiences, legacy business, M&A interest, Online Travel Agency, Revenue Growth, Tours, Travel, turnaround, Viator | Login |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | ATKR | Atkore Inc. | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NYSE | Building Products, Cyclical, data centers, Electrical Grid, infrastructure, Metal Conduits, PVC Pipes, Solar power, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | APOG | Apogee Enterprises Inc. | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Acquisitions, Building Products, Commercial Buildings, Cyclical, Framing Systems, Glass, margin expansion, market consolidation, Value | Login |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | ABM | ABM Industries Incorporated | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies | Bull | NYSE | Airports, defensive, EV charging, Facility Management, Janitorial Services, Microgrids, steady growth, Value | Login |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | BOOM | DMC Global Inc. | Energy | Energy Equipment & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition target, Building Products, Event-driven, Heat-Resistant Metals, Oil Services, Special Situation, strategic review | Login |
| Jul 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | LULU | Lululemon Athletica Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Bull | NASDAQ | Apparel, Athletic Wear, China, Europe, international expansion, Post-Pandemic, Quality, Value | Login |
| Jul 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | ATRO | Astronics Corporation | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NASDAQ | Aerospace, Aircraft Systems, Boeing, Entertainment Systems, market leader, Military, Revenue Growth, supply chain | Login |
| Jul 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | SJM | The J.M. Smucker Company | Consumer Staples | Food Products | Bull | NYSE | brand portfolio, consumer staples, debt reduction, dividend, Food Products, Free Cash Flow, GLP-1 Risk, Value | Login |
| Jul 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | NASDAQ | 5G Technology, Binary Outcome, Business Aviation, Galileo, In-Flight WiFi, Satellite, SpaceX Competition, Technology Rollout | Login |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | ADM | Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | Consumer Staples | Agricultural Products | Bull | NYSE | Accounting Issues, Agricultural Commodities, Cyclical, dividend, Grain Trading, Share Buybacks, Value | Login |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | Information Technology | Technology Distributors | Bull | NYSE | AI technology, Free Cash Flow Growth, margin expansion, PC Market Recovery, technology distribution, value-added services | Login |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | VMEO | Vimeo, Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Neutral | NASDAQ | Free cash flow positive, Growth Stagnation, M&A Arbitrage, Small Position, Special Situation, Video Streaming | Login |
| Jan 3, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | ANEB | Eventbrite Inc | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NYSE | Event Management, growth, profitability inflection, SaaS, Small Venues, Ticketing Platform, turnaround | Login |
| Jan 3, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | FCNCA | First Citizens BancShares Inc | Financials | Banks | Bull | NASDAQ | Asset Integration, Interest Rate Sensitive, North Carolina, regional bank, SVB Acquisition, tangible book value | Login |
| Jan 3, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | EWORK.ST | Worthington Enterprises Inc | Materials | Steel | Bull | NYSE | Building materials, Consumer products, diversification, Industrial, infrastructure, spin-off, Steel Products | Login |
| Jan 3, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | OMAB | Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV | Industrials | Transportation Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | Concession, infrastructure, Mexican Airports, Mexico, Monopolistic Assets, Regulatory risk, Transportation | Login |
| Jan 3, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | DFS | Discover Financial Services | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NYSE | consumer finance, credit cards, credit quality, new CEO, Regulatory Resolution, Share Buybacks, turnaround | Login |
| Jan 3, 2024 | Fund Letters | Middle Coast Investing | ACLS | Axcelis Technologies Inc | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Automotive Semiconductors, Chip Manufacturing, Electric Vehicles, ion implantation, semiconductor equipment, Taiwan Semiconductor | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon is included in the hyperscalers basket - the top of the line in the AI value chain. These companies are splurging to build out data centers to power their cloud and AI services. Their free cash flow levels are plummeting even as sales and earnings grow. They're among the first who will have to prove AI is actually profitable, and it appears the market is starting to doubt them. Amazon is the portfolio's largest position at 10.4% and was a Q2 winner contributing 1.4% gain to total portfolio value. |
| GOOG | Alphabet is included in the hyperscalers basket - the top of the line in the AI value chain. These companies are splurging to build out data centers to power their cloud and AI services. Their free cash flow levels are plummeting even as sales and earnings grow. They're among the first who will have to prove AI is actually profitable, and it appears the market is starting to doubt them. The manager trimmed the Alphabet position during Q2. |
| MSFT | Microsoft is included in the hyperscalers basket initially, but has drifted from hyperscaler AI winner to the perceived AI victims basket due to its huge software business. It may not be a coincidence that the manager bought some shares in Microsoft to add big tech exposure for a couple clients this quarter. |
| AAPL | The manager would not include Apple in the hyperscalers bucket. Its capex is comparably tiny. For all the talk of it building out Siri to lead its AI, Apple seems content to know that whichever AI models we end up using, we'll stick to our iPhones to use them. We'll see if that changes when new CEO John Ternus takes over in September. Apple is the second largest position at 6.1% and was a Q2 winner contributing 0.8% gain to total portfolio value. |
| ATRO | Astronics is in the aerospace stocks basket. The manager notes aerospace gets more credit than travel stocks, presumably because the backlog in demand will take years to resolve and temporary hiccups in travel spending due to geopolitical issues don't deter that longer-term demand. Astronics is the third largest position at 5.9% and was the top Q2 winner contributing 2% gain to total portfolio value. Astronics did a 6 for 5 stock split that entailed receiving ATROB shares. |
| OMAB | Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte is in the travel stocks basket, which gets a double dose of geopolitical concerns and economic concerns. However, the manager emphasizes that investors underestimate the demand for travel at their portfolio's peril. OMAB is the fourth largest position at 5%. |
| PGR | Progressive Corporation is in the financial stocks basket. Financials are the 'well, how are things going?' sector - if the economy is working, we spend more, pay for more, invest more. There are also technology disruptions at play including stablecoin, crypto, AI, and deregulation that might affect these companies or scare the market. Progressive is the fifth largest position at 4.2%. |
| COF | Capital One Financial is in both the consumer spending basket and financial stocks basket. Consumer spending stocks are exposed to broader economic trends and beliefs about disposable income. Capital One is the sixth largest position at 4%. |
| HNI | HNI Corp is in the perceived AI victims basket as a business whose edge is 'their people' and also affected by commercial real estate challenges. HNI is the seventh largest position at 3.15%. |
| ECG | Everus Construction Group is in the data center / AI related basket as a beneficiary of hyperscaler spending on data center buildouts. ECG is the eighth largest position at 3% and was a Q2 winner contributing 0.9% gain to total portfolio value. |
| AER | AerCap is in the aerospace stocks basket. Aerospace stocks trade more favorably than travel stocks despite sharing the common driver of global air travel demand, getting more credit for multi-year demand backlogs. AerCap is the ninth largest position at 3%. |
| CCK | Crown Holdings is in the consumer spending basket, exposed to broader economic trends and beliefs about disposable income. Crown is the tenth largest position at 2.9%. |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings is in both the perceived AI victims basket as a marketplace/middleman business and the travel stocks basket. Travel gets geopolitical and economic headwinds but the manager notes investors underestimate travel demand at their peril. Booking is the eleventh largest position at 2.8%. |
| FG | F&G Annuities & Life is in the financial stocks basket. Financials reflect how the economy is doing and face potential technology disruptions from stablecoin, crypto, AI, and deregulation. F&G is the twelfth largest position at 2.5%. |
| CPAY | Corpay is in the financial stocks basket. The manager highlights that Corpay had a very good quarter with a triple beat - beating analyst estimates for the prior quarter, better than expected guidance for current quarter, and raised full year guidance. The stock jumped 12.5% after earnings but gave up about half those gains by quarter end, finishing up only 15% for the quarter in line with the market. The manager suggests Corpay may just be out of the winner's basket for the time being. Corpay is the thirteenth largest position at 2.3%. |
| TRIP | TripAdvisor is in both the perceived AI victims basket as a marketplace and the travel stocks basket. The company announced it was selling The Fork, its restaurant booking platform, for $700M to American Express. While some hoped for a higher price, the manager viewed it as fair - $700M mostly tax free amounts to half of TripAdvisor's market cap at the time. Yet the stock ended up only 1.2% the day of the news (also the day of Iran-U.S. ceasefire news), crawling up another 9% before quarter end. The manager notes it does not seem to be trading in line with its own news as much as with bigger sector news. TripAdvisor is the fourteenth largest position at 2.25%. |
| AVGO | Broadcom is in the data center / AI related basket as a semiconductor beneficiary of hyperscaler spending on AI infrastructure buildouts. Broadcom is the fifteenth largest position at 2.2%. The manager trimmed the Broadcom position during Q2. |
| SNX | TD Synnex is in the data center / AI related basket. The company has soared in 2026 in large part due to its Hyve business unit, which helps companies set up data center infrastructure. SNX's distribution business also did really well in the last quarter. TD Synnex was a Q2 winner contributing 0.8% gain to total portfolio value. The manager trimmed the position during Q2. |
| LULU | Lululemon is in the consumer spending basket but the manager notes it has problems far beyond high gas prices. Lululemon was the top Q2 loser, dropping 24.6% and causing a 0.2% decrease in total portfolio value. |
| CDW | CDW Corporation is a tech distributor - instead of buying from Apple, Amazon, or HP directly, you might work through CDW for IP support along with the right array of hardware and software. CDW is in both the data center / AI related basket and the perceived AI victims basket. TD Synnex and Ingram Micro usually trade for lower P/E ratios than CDW as they focus more on raw distribution versus CDW's software distribution. CDW distributes more software, which is out of favor and increasingly viewed as a commodity. The manager thinks that's overshot the mark. The stock sold off 27% after reporting more or less in-line earnings, confirming it's not as hot as SNX and others. But the manager bought at less than 10x earnings. Since then, the stock has popped back up 35% or so, and the manager's mistake was making this only a small position. This was a new buy in Q2. |
| SPGI | S&P Global is the company behind the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Indices and is also a major ratings agency. Together those are two sterling businesses. S&P Global also owns three data businesses where the market has started doubting the company, leading it to trading for a 'normal' multiple at the price the manager bought. One data business is centered on energy with proprietary data viewed as fairly safe from AI. Another is based on cars including primarily CarFax, which S&P is spinning off as Mobility Global. The last is market intelligence, viewed as the Achilles' heel. The manager is cautious of continuing to bet against AI with the AI losers basket trade but thinks S&P's good businesses are so good and the AI threat is still theoretical. The one unfortunate bit is that its good businesses go up and down with the market by definition, so it won't be counter-cyclical. For this to work, S&P Global will need to continue outgrowing the market to compound earnings growth while also earning a bigger multiple again. S&P Global is in the perceived AI victims basket and financial stocks basket. This was a new buy in Q2. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor is in the data center / AI related basket as a semiconductor beneficiary of AI infrastructure buildouts. The manager trimmed the Taiwan Semiconductor position during Q2. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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