| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 11.27% | 17.64% | 17.64% |
Miller/Howard argues that AI advancement, particularly agentic AI, marks a turning point creating paradigm-shifting disruption across industries. Software companies face threats to their subscription-based business models as AI agents reduce the need for multiple software licenses and enable custom-built solutions. This disruption is causing investors to question growth assumptions for previously durable companies. High-growth stocks with premium valuations are particularly vulnerable due to their long-dated cash flows and heavy reliance on terminal values. The firm advocates for dividend investing as a natural hedge against disruption, noting that high dividend yields mathematically require lower P/E ratios and shorter duration cash flows. They also favor HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) companies with physical moats that cannot be digitized, such as utilities, energy, and transportation. The market rotation from software to infrastructure stocks in Q1 2026 demonstrates these dynamics in action. Miller/Howard positions dividend investing as providing both current income and protection against uncertain long-term growth assumptions.
In an age of AI disruption, investors should focus on dividend-paying companies with physical assets and lower valuations rather than high-growth stocks with premium multiples vulnerable to technological displacement.
The firm expects continued market focus on disruption protection through HALO stocks and dividend-paying companies. They anticipate ongoing questioning of growth assumptions and valuations for companies vulnerable to AI advancement.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28 2026 | 2026 Q1 | JPM, XOM | AI, disruption, dividends, growth, infrastructure, valuation | - | AI disruption threatens high-growth software companies with premium valuations, making their long-term cash flows increasingly uncertain. Miller/Howard advocates dividend investing and HALO stocks as protection, arguing that high dividend yields mathematically create lower P/E ratios and shorter duration cash flows, providing margin of safety in an age of technological disruption. |
| Jan 24 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AM, EPD, ET, GEL, LNG, PAA, SUN, WES, WMB | Data centers, dividends, energy, LNG, Midstream, MLPs, Natural Gas, Pipelines | - | Midstream energy is positioned for growth from data center demand, LNG exports, and electrification driving 20-25 Bcf/d of incremental natural gas demand through 2030. Industry fundamentals are healthy with declining leverage and rising dividends. Six holdings increased distributions 7.5% year-over-year. Valuations remain attractive despite strong recent performance, with data center tailwinds accelerating cash flows from 2027. |
| Oct 19 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AM, ENB, EPD, ET, GEL, HESM, MPLX, PAA, SUN, WES, WMB | Data centers, dividends, energy, infrastructure, Midstream, Natural Gas | - | Midstream energy positioned for structural natural gas demand growth from data centers and electrification. Over $10B in new projects announced though EBITDA impact delayed until 2027. Portfolio trimmed Enbridge and Enterprise Products, added to Hess Midstream and Genesis Energy. Near-term capex pressures offset by long-term cash flow expectations and 5.3% average dividend increases across holdings. |
| Jul 22 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AM, ENB, EPD, ET, GEL, HESM, MPLX, PAA, SUN, WES, WMB | Data centers, dividends, energy, infrastructure, Midstream, Natural Gas | - | Midstream energy strategy positioned for structural natural gas demand growth from data centers and electrification despite Q3 headwinds. Over $10B in new projects announced recently. Portfolio focused on income generation with four holdings raising dividends 5.3% year-over-year. Trimmed core positions while adding to higher-yielding names anticipating free cash flow inflection points. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ENB, ENLC, EPD, ET, GEL, HESM, LNG, MPLX, OKE, PAA, SUN, TRGP, WES | dividends, energy, income, infrastructure, Midstream, MLPs, Natural Gas | - | Miller/Howard's midstream strategy outperformed in Q1 2025, capitalizing on attractive valuations and strong fundamentals. The sector trades at 2.9x lower EV/EBITDA than 2015 with improved balance sheets and higher free cash flow. Eight holdings raised dividends by 9% on average. Portfolio repositioning included new positions in Genesis Energy and Enbridge while trimming others to optimize income potential. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AM, ENLC, EPD, ET, LNG, MPLX, PAA, PAGP, SUN, TRGP | Data centers, dividends, energy, growth, infrastructure, LNG, Midstream, Natural Gas | - | Midstream energy has become a growth sector driven by natural gas demand from data centers, LNG exports, and manufacturing onshoring. The portfolio's 15 holdings benefit from strong free cash flow generation supporting dividend growth, with four companies announcing increases averaging 10% this quarter while positioned for 20% natural gas demand growth. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AM, ENLC, EPD, ET, HESM, LNG, MPLX, OKE, OXY, PAA, PAGP, SUN, TRGP, WES | Data centers, dividends, energy, infrastructure, LNG, Midstream, Natural Gas | - | Miller/Howard's midstream strategy benefits from multiple natural gas demand tailwinds including data centers requiring 6-10 Bcf/d, new LNG terminals adding 12 Bcf/d, and gassier Permian production. The portfolio offers attractive yields with consistent distribution growth while trading at favorable valuations. Recent positioning includes adding Cheniere and Hess Midstream while trimming others for better opportunities. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ABBV, AVGO, BAC, BK, CAG, CAH, GILD, GS, JEF, JNJ, JPM, LYB, MDT, MRK, PAYX, PSX, RHI, RY, TRGP, UPS | banks, dividends, energy, free cash flow, Midstream, Natural Gas, Utilities | - | Miller/Howard argues dividend-paying stocks are undervalued due to superior free cash flow quality after adjusting for stock compensation. Dividend payers return 91% of free cash flow to shareholders versus 53% for non-payers. The firm's portfolios benefit from natural gas demand growth through energy infrastructure exposure while banks offer attractive yields at discounted valuations. |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AES, AM, ATO, BCE, CEG, CMCSA, CMS, CNP, CNQ, CSCO, CVX, DTE, EOG, EPD, EWBC, EXC, FTS, GILD, HESM, IPG, JPM, KMI, KO, LAMR, LBRT, LNG, MPC, NEE, NTR, OKE, ORI, PAGP, PCG, PEG, POR, SRE, STAG, TMUS, TRGP, TTE, UPS, VST, WM | dividends, energy, income, infrastructure, Midstream, Utilities, value | - | Miller/Howard positions for dividend stock revival as record market concentration in mega-caps creates bubble-like conditions. The firm focuses on infrastructure and energy benefiting from AI-driven power demand growth, maintaining defensive dividend strategy with 3.5% portfolio yield while expecting outperformance as market concentration reverses and returns broaden beyond technology giants. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2023 Q4 | ABBV, AVGO, BAC, CAG, CEQP, EOG, HEP, HESM, HST, HUN, MAA, MDT, MLPX, MPLX, MRK, MSM, NS, OGE, POR, RY, TRGP | dividends, energy, income, infrastructure, Midstream, MLPs, Utilities | - | Miller/Howard emphasizes dividend growth as a powerful wealth-building tool, showing companies with strong free cash flow and earnings growth deliver larger dividend increases. Their MLP Strategy focuses on midstream energy with limited commodity exposure, benefiting from distribution increases and healthy fundamentals. Portfolio changes included merger-related exits and redeployment into existing quality holdings with strong distribution growth prospects. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2023 Q3 | AM, BK, CAG, CEG, CMCSA, EPD, FWRD, GPC, GS, HESM, JPM, MMP, MPC, MPLX, NS, NTR, PAYX, SUN, TRGP, TXN, WBA | AI, dividends, energy, income, inflation, Utilities, value | - | Miller/Howard warns against chasing AI-driven market gains, advocating instead for dividend-focused investing in an uncertain economic environment. With traditional recession indicators flashing yellow and real interest rates returning to normal levels, the firm positions defensively in high-yield stocks with strong balance sheets, expecting dividend strategies to outperform growth-oriented investments that depend on multiple expansion. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2023 Q2 | AES, AM, BCE, BK, CAG, CAH, CHRD, CNP, CSCO, D, DCP, EMN, ENB, EPD, EXR, GS, HCA, JNJ, JPM, KEY, KNF, LBRT, LNG, LYB, MDU, MPC, MSFT, MSM, NGG, NVDA, OMAB, POR, PPL, PSX, RRC, RY, SBAC, SO, SUN, UGI, VLO, VST, WMB | dividends, energy, income, infrastructure, technology, Utilities, value | - | Miller/Howard maintains dividend-focused strategies across energy, utilities, and infrastructure during market uncertainty. The firm demonstrates strong conviction in defensive positioning with low-leverage companies capable of growing dividends through economic cycles. Portfolio yields exceed 3.5% with strong coverage ratios, while strategic additions in healthcare and energy complement their thesis of investing in essential service providers with sustainable competitive advantages. |
| Mar 30 2024 | 2023 Q1 | AMT, CMCSA, CMS, CPT, CSCO, EPD, EXR, GILD, GPC, HUN, IPG, KO, LAMR, MMP, MPLX, ORI, POR, STAG, TTE, UPS | Banking, dividends, energy, inflation, infrastructure, interest rates, Midstream, Recession | - | Miller/Howard navigates banking crisis fallout and rising recession risks by emphasizing dividend-paying companies with strong balance sheets. The firm positions defensively across recession-resilient sectors while capitalizing on energy transition dynamics driving cash-focused behavior. Banking turmoil and credit tightening make recession likely, but disciplined focus on low-leverage, high-cash-flow companies provides defensive positioning and distressed opportunity access. |
| Feb 22 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI advancement, particularly agentic AI, is creating paradigm-shifting disruption across industries. Software companies face threats to their business models as AI agents reduce subscription needs and enable custom-built solutions. This disruption is causing investors to question growth assumptions and valuations for companies previously considered durable. |
Agentic AI Disruption Software Automation Growth |
DividendsDividend investing provides a natural barrier against chasing growth and offers protection in an age of disruption. High dividend yields combined with coverage create mathematical certainty of lower P/E ratios and shorter duration cash flows. This approach offers margin of safety and more certain returns through recurring income. |
Dividend Yield Coverage Valuation Income Safety | |
InfrastructureHALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) companies including utilities, energy, and transportation provide physical moats that cannot be digitized. These asset-heavy businesses offer protection from AI disruption as their core services remain necessary despite potential automation of supporting processes. |
HALO Physical Assets Utilities Energy Transportation | |
GrowthHigh growth companies with premium valuations face increased risk from AI disruption. Growth stocks' long-dated cash flows and high terminal values make them particularly vulnerable to changes in growth assumptions. The market is questioning the sustainability of growth premiums in an uncertain environment. |
Valuation Terminal Value Duration Premium Risk | |
| 2025 Q4 |
Behavioral BiasesManager discusses psychological biases in investing, comparing rational Morning Investor mode versus impulsive Nighttime Investor behavior. Emphasizes the importance of overcoming biases like avoiding action that could cause regret, and building habits to make better decisions. |
Psychology Decision Making Bias Discipline |
ValueMature (Value) businesses led performance in Q4 and were the strongest contributors for the full year, reflecting durable execution in companies generating healthy free cash flow and returning capital. |
Free Cash Flow Capital Return Mature | |
GrowthEmerging (Growth) businesses reversed substantial gains in Q4 but delivered strong year overall with significant alpha relative to benchmark. Primary drag in Q4 but positive contributor for full year. |
Alpha Emerging Volatility | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Data CentersNatural gas demand from data centers is driving significant growth, with hyperscalers increasing capex and the majority of projects powered by natural gas. The midstream industry is responding with over $10B of new projects announced recently. |
Hyperscalers Capex Natural Gas Infrastructure Growth |
Natural GasNatural gas business remains hot with several projects announced tied to growing demand. The sector has seen a step-change in demand dynamics between 2014 and 2024, driven by electrification trends, exports, increasing gas-to-oil ratios, and data centers. |
Demand Exports LNG Electrification Projects | |
MidstreamThe midstream industry is responding to natural gas demand with over $10B of new projects. Most of the industry's income is derived from fee-based operations, though weaker natural gas prices have weighed on the sector recently. |
Fee-based Projects Infrastructure Pipelines EBITDA | |
DividendsFour of the 16 holdings announced dividend increases this quarter, with an average increase of 5.3% year-over-year. Higher cash flow from operational projects is expected to be returned to investors through distribution increases and potentially share buybacks. |
Distribution Increases Cash Flow Returns Yield | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Data CentersNatural gas demand from data centers is driving significant growth opportunities for midstream companies. Hyperscalers continue increasing capex with most projects powered by natural gas, creating over $10B in new midstream projects recently announced. |
Hyperscalers Capex Natural Gas Infrastructure Growth |
Natural GasNatural gas business remains hot with several projects announced tied to growing demand. The sector has seen a step-change in demand dynamics between 2014 and 2024, with continued faith in tailwinds including electrification trends and exports. |
Demand Exports LNG Electrification Growth | |
MidstreamThe midstream industry is responding to increased natural gas demand with over $10B of new projects announced. While near-term capex lowers free cash flow, operational projects should generate higher cash flow for distribution increases and share buybacks. |
Pipelines Infrastructure Cash Flow Distributions Capex | |
DividendsFour of 16 holdings announced dividend increases this quarter with an average increase of 5.3% year-over-year. The strategy focuses on generating reliable income and long-term returns through dividend-focused investments. |
Income Distributions Yield Growth Returns | |
| 2025 Q1 |
MidstreamMidstream energy had a fine quarter with positive territory performance easily outpacing the overall market. The sector offers attractive valuations trading 2.9 turns lower on EV/EBITDA than in 2015, strong balance sheets with declining debt and lower leverage, and much higher free cash flow yield demonstrating financial stability. |
Pipelines Energy Infrastructure MLPs Free Cash Flow Valuations |
DividendsEight of sixteen holdings announced dividend increases this quarter with an average increase of 9.0% year-over-year. The manager expects to see further distribution increases from holdings during the upcoming earnings season, highlighting the income growth potential of the portfolio. |
Distribution Growth Income Yield Payout Increases | |
Natural GasThe manager monitors risks around potential impacts from the end of the Russia-Ukraine war on natural gas dynamics. If Russian natural gas exports increase to Europe, Europe may need less liquefied natural gas from the US, though those volumes could find homes elsewhere in Asia. |
LNG Exports Geopolitical Risk Supply Dynamics | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Data CentersData centers are driving significant natural gas demand growth, with midstream companies announcing almost $6 billion in projects to provide natural gas to power data centers in 2024. Another $5 billion in projects are under consideration, representing a major growth driver for the sector. |
Natural Gas Infrastructure Energy Demand Growth Capex |
LNGThe long build out of additional liquified natural gas facilities should finally take hold in 2025, which should be the beginning of natural gas exports doubling by the end of the decade. This represents a significant growth catalyst for midstream energy companies. |
Natural Gas Exports Infrastructure Growth Energy | |
OnshoringUS onshoring of manufacturing including batteries, solar equipment, semiconductors, and other manufacturing is driving additional natural gas demand. This trend is expected to contribute approximately 3 Bcf/d of new natural gas demand. |
Manufacturing Natural Gas Demand Reshoring Industrial | |
DividendsThe midstream sector continues to return capital to shareholders through dividend increases, with 4 of 15 holdings announcing dividend increases this quarter averaging 10% year-over-year. Free cash flow generation supports current dividends and potential future increases. |
Income Cash Flow Shareholder Returns Growth Distribution | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Natural GasNatural gas demand growth is driven by multiple tailwinds including data centers requiring 6-10 Bcf/d, new LNG terminals adding 12 Bcf/d, and Permian production becoming gassier. Total incremental demand could exceed 20 Bcf/d by decade end from LNG, re-shoring, EVs, electrification, and data centers. |
LNG Permian Data Centers Exports Demand |
Data CentersData centers represent a significant new demand driver for natural gas infrastructure, with estimates of 6-10 Bcf/d required. Midstream companies have announced several new projects to service data centers, mainly in the US southeast, creating multi-year growth opportunities. |
AI Infrastructure Southeast Demand Growth | |
MidstreamMidstream fundamentals and valuations remain favorable with strong free cash flow generation, attractive yields, and distribution growth. The sector benefits from increased volumes from Permian production, data center buildout, and LNG export growth requiring additional gathering, transportation, and processing infrastructure. |
Infrastructure Pipelines Processing Transportation Gathering | |
LNGNew liquefied natural gas terminals should add approximately 12 Bcf/d of new natural gas demand in coming years. This represents a significant growth driver for the midstream sector as the US produces slightly north of 100 Bcf/d currently. |
Exports Terminals Demand Growth Infrastructure | |
DividendsThe portfolio offers compelling yield compared to broader markets with consistent distribution increases. Three of 15 holdings announced dividend increases averaging 6.4% year-over-year, combined with share buybacks creating attractive total return proposition. |
Yield Income Growth Returns Distributions | |
| 2024 Q2 |
DividendsMiller/Howard emphasizes dividend-paying stocks as superior investments, arguing they have higher-quality free cash flow after adjusting for non-cash compensation. Dividend payers return 91% of free cash flow to shareholders versus 53% for non-dividend payers. Regular dividends are viewed as management commitments that signal confidence in future profitability. |
Dividend yield Dividend growth Dividend coverage Shareholder returns Free cash flow |
BuybacksThe firm views buybacks as sensible capital allocation when companies avoid large acquisitions and excessive capital spending. However, they note buybacks only reduce share count with 85% efficiency due to dilution from stock compensation and acquisitions. They prefer dividends over buybacks for their predictability and commitment value. |
Share repurchases Capital allocation Share count Dilution Management commitment | |
Natural GasUS natural gas demand reached record highs in 2023, driven by power generation replacing coal plants and growing LNG exports. Future demand growth is expected from nearshoring, electric vehicles, and data centers requiring dispatchable generation. LNG export capacity is projected to double through 2027. |
LNG exports Power generation Data centers Export capacity Demand growth | |
Energy TransitionThe portfolio is positioned to benefit from energy transition trends including renewable power development, grid modernization, and natural gas as a bridge fuel. Independent power producers benefit from tighter power markets while utilities benefit from regulated transmission projects. |
Renewable power Grid modernization Bridge fuel Power markets Transmission | |
Data CentersData center electricity demand is identified as a key driver for natural gas consumption and power generation. The trend supports both utilities through regulated projects and independent power producers through tighter power markets requiring dispatchable generation capacity. |
Electricity demand Power generation Dispatchable capacity AI infrastructure Grid demand | |
| 2024 Q1 |
DividendsThe letter extensively analyzes dividend investing, arguing that high-yield dividend stocks have historically outperformed the S&P 500 by 1.3% annually over 75 years with lower volatility. The manager believes dividend stocks are positioned for a revival as market concentration reverses. |
Dividend Yield Income Outperformance Volatility Revival |
Energy TransitionThe document discusses midstream energy companies benefiting from increasing power demand from data centers and LNG export facilities coming online in 2025. The manager views midstream as having limited commodity exposure while providing steady earnings. |
LNG Data Centers Power Demand Midstream Natural Gas | |
Infrastructure SpendingThe letter highlights utilities benefiting from rising electricity demand driven by AI and data centers, with grid planners expecting US electricity demand to grow 4.7% over five years. This creates opportunities for capital deployment and earnings growth. |
Utilities Grid Capital Deployment Electricity Demand Growth | |
AIThe document discusses artificial intelligence driving electricity demand growth and data center proliferation. The manager questions whether current AI valuations are justified, comparing the situation to the Tech/Telecom Bubble of 1999. |
Data Centers Electricity Demand Valuations Bubble Technology | |
Risk AppetiteThe letter analyzes how recent market returns have been concentrated in higher-volatility stocks like the Magnificent Seven, contrary to historical patterns where lower-volatility stocks outperformed. The manager advocates for more defensive positioning. |
Volatility Magnificent Seven Defensive Market Concentration Risk | |
| 2023 Q4 |
DividendsThe letter extensively discusses dividend increases as an underappreciated tailwind for wealth building. Miller/Howard analyzes dividend growth patterns across the Russell 1000, showing that companies with higher free cash flow yields and earnings growth are more likely to announce larger dividend increases. The firm emphasizes using bond conventions to measure dividend increases in basis points rather than percentages. |
Dividend Growth Free Cash Flow Basis Points Russell 1000 Income Growth |
MidstreamThe MLP Strategy focuses on midstream energy companies that have limited direct commodity price exposure, allowing returns to grind higher even when oil and gas prices fall. The strategy emphasizes companies with healthy fundamentals, declining leverage, and strong free cash flow yields that support current distributions and potential increases. |
Energy Infrastructure Cash Flow Distributions Commodity Exposure Leverage | |
EnergyThe document discusses energy sector performance and consolidation, particularly highlighting major M&A activity with ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources and Chevron's purchase of Hess Corporation. The firm views North American energy companies' capital discipline as a key driver for future performance despite commodity price volatility. |
M&A Capital Discipline Oil Prices Energy Majors Consolidation | |
| 2023 Q3 |
DividendsThe firm emphasizes dividend-paying stocks as a reliable source of returns, noting that dividends have continued to chug along this year while earnings expansion has been in short supply. They advocate for dividend investing as a strategy that relies on the power of compounding income over time rather than heroic forecasts. |
Income Yield Growth Coverage Sustainability |
InflationInflation has trended down as a result of the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes combined with the resolution of most supply chain problems. However, inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, and the firm notes that inflation fears are expected to keep interest rates high going forward. |
Fed Rates Policy Target Supply Chain | |
AIThe firm identifies artificial intelligence as a key driver of this year's market performance, with seven AI-linked stocks accounting for 84% of the S&P 500's year-to-date performance. However, they warn that chasing today's tech winners based on AI excitement is a dangerous game, drawing parallels to the Tech Bubble of 1999. |
Technology Bubble Valuation Speculation Risk | |
Energy TransitionThe document discusses the evolution of the energy sector, particularly midstream companies that have improved their business models and balance sheets. Real interest rates returning to normal levels are expected to favor dividend-paying energy companies over growth-oriented tech companies that pay little or no dividends. |
Midstream Infrastructure Cash Flow Distribution Balance Sheet | |
Risk AppetiteThe firm advocates for investing without hubris, acknowledging that accurate economic forecasts are impossible. They recommend choosing investment strategies that can work in various environments, particularly focusing on high-dividend-yield stocks with low volatility that have historically outperformed during recessions. |
Volatility Recession Defense Uncertainty Protection | |
| 2023 Q2 |
DividendsThe letter extensively analyzes dividend-paying tech stocks versus non-payers, finding high-dividend tech stocks outperformed when excluding the internet bubble period. Miller/Howard emphasizes dividend growth as a key investment criterion across all strategies, with multiple holdings announcing dividend increases during the quarter. |
Dividend Growth Dividend Coverage Dividend Yield Income Payout |
Energy TransitionThe firm discusses the midstream sector's focus on free cash flow generation and distribution coverage. They highlight how the sector has reached an inflection point with improved financial positioning and reduced reliance on capital markets for growth projects. |
Free Cash Flow Distribution Coverage Midstream Energy Infrastructure Capital Allocation | |
InfrastructureThe Infrastructure Strategy invests in essential service providers with high barriers to entry, expecting stable demand relative to the broad economy. The strategy focuses on low-beta characteristics and positions for performance with relatively low volatility over long holding periods. |
Essential Services Barriers to Entry Low Beta Stability Defensive | |
UtilitiesUtilities demonstrated dividend reliability with 69% of utilities in the Russell 1000 increasing dividends over 25 years, showing no material change during recessions. The regulated business model provides durability and dependable income streams despite interest rate headwinds. |
Regulated Utilities Dividend Reliability Interest Rate Sensitivity Defensive Income | |
| 2023 Q1 |
DividendsThe firm emphasizes dividend-paying companies across all strategies, with 15 holdings increasing dividends in the Income-Equity Strategy and 7 in the MLP Strategy. They view dividend commitment as a signal of management confidence in stable cash flows and believe dividend-paying stocks have historically outperformed with lower volatility. |
Dividend Growth Income Cash Flow Shareholder Returns Yield |
Credit StressBanking turmoil from Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse failures highlighted vulnerabilities in the financial system. Banks are tightening lending standards and borrowing heavily from the Fed, with the senior loan officer survey predicting recession. The firm expects further credit contraction following the bank run scare. |
Banking Crisis Credit Tightening Lending Standards Financial Stress Recession | |
RatesRising interest rates caused banking sector stress and are forcing the Fed's desired economic slowdown. The 2-year Treasury yield dropped below Fed funds rate, signaling bond market expectations of rate cuts within a year due to anticipated recession. Higher rates are impacting bank margins and funding costs. |
Interest Rates Fed Policy Yield Curve Monetary Policy Bond Market | |
InflationHousing inflation may prove transitory as Zillow rent index moderates while CPI survey lags. Energy and food components could drop due to lower commodity prices. However, wage inflation remains elevated and the Fed is determined to drive unemployment higher to achieve 2% inflation target. |
Housing Costs Wage Growth Commodity Prices CPI Fed Target | |
Energy TransitionThe looming energy transition is driving permanent changes in energy company behavior, with firms prioritizing cash generation over growth investments. This creates a winning setup for income-seeking investors as companies run businesses for cash rather than pursuing costly long-term projects. |
Cash Generation Capital Discipline Energy Companies Investment Strategy Transition | |
MidstreamMidstream companies are better positioned than in prior downturns with cash flow from operations now funding capital expenditures and rising free cash flow. The sector has moved away from relying on capital markets for funding, though higher capex budgets raise some concerns about near-term free cash flow decline. |
Free Cash Flow Capital Expenditures Pipeline Infrastructure Energy Infrastructure Cash Coverage |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| XOM | the 2028 consensus capex for these four companies, $750 billion in aggregate, is currently greater than the market capitalization of ExxonMobil (XOM) |
| JPM | the 2028 consensus capex for these four companies, $750 billion in aggregate, is currently greater than the market capitalization of ExxonMobil (XOM) and is approaching that of JP Morgan Chase (JPM, not held) |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
