| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Miller/Howard argues that AI advancement, particularly agentic AI, represents a paradigm shift threatening traditional business models across industries. Software companies face existential risks as AI agents may reduce subscription needs and enable custom software development. This disruption calls into question the sustainability of growth assumptions embedded in high-multiple stocks, which derive 60-75% of their value from terminal growth beyond 10 years. The firm advocates for dividend investing as a natural hedge against disruption risk, noting that high dividend yields combined with strong coverage mathematically result in lower P/E ratios and front-loaded cash flows. Value stocks offer better protection than growth stocks dependent on uncertain long-term projections. The market's rotation toward HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) companies reflects recognition that physical infrastructure cannot be digitized. Miller/Howard maintains its three-decade commitment to dividend investing, positioning it as providing high current income at reasonable valuations while offering a margin of safety against technological disruption and uncertain future cash flows.
In an age of AI disruption, dividend investing provides superior protection through lower valuations, front-loaded cash flows, and reduced sensitivity to uncertain long-term growth assumptions compared to high-multiple growth stocks vulnerable to technological obsolescence.
The firm expects continued AI-driven disruption across industries, particularly affecting software and professional services companies. They anticipate ongoing market rotation toward value stocks and HALO companies that offer physical moats against technological disruption. Dividend investing is positioned as a defensive strategy providing income and valuation protection.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28 2026 | 2026 Q1 | AMZN, GOOG, JPM, META, MSFT, XOM | AI, disruption, dividends, energy, growth, infrastructure, software, valuation | - | AI disruption threatens high-growth software companies dependent on long-term cash flows, driving market rotation toward value and infrastructure stocks. Miller/Howard advocates dividend investing as protection, arguing high yields with strong coverage create lower P/E ratios and front-loaded cash flows that provide margin of safety against technological obsolescence and uncertain growth assumptions. |
| Jan 24 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, BAC, BRK-B, GOOG, GOOGL, JNJ, JPM, META, MSFT, NVDA, PG, TSLA, WMT, XOM | Concentration, dividends, Indices, Magnificent 7, nuclear, SMRs, value | - | Record market concentration and compromised index construction create opportunities for truly diversified dividend strategies. Miller/Howard avoids Magnificent 7 in income portfolios while other managers chase performance. Nuclear power emerges as compelling long-term theme with rising electricity demand and policy support for capacity expansion, though execution risks remain significant. |
| Oct 19 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AR, BK, CAG, CCI, CMCSA, CNP, COP, DINO, ELS, ENB, EPD, GEL, GS, HESM, HRB, HRL, JPM, NI, NRG, STT, TTE, WTTR | AI, dividends, energy, financials, inflation, infrastructure, Natural Gas, Utilities | - | Miller/Howard delivered strong Q3 performance driven by financial sector dividend increases averaging 14%. The firm contrasts their income-focused approach with speculative AI spending by Magnificent 7 companies, whose capex has doubled while free cash flow deteriorates. Natural gas demand from data centers creates infrastructure opportunities. Portfolio yields 3.6% with 5% projected dividend growth, positioned for multiple economic scenarios. |
| Jul 22 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Buybacks, dividends, large cap, megacaps, S&P 500, value | - | Miller/Howard argues megacap outperformance driven by volatile buybacks is unsustainable versus predictable dividend growth. With megacaps trading at 29.3x P/E and facing tariff/geopolitical risks, historical patterns favor smaller caps over 5-year periods. The firm advocates dividend-focused investing for lower volatility and expects these portfolios to outperform when market returns eventually broaden. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | Buybacks, Capital Allocation, dividends, income, S&P 500, technology, Valuations | - | Miller/Howard argues dividend yields have collapsed due to poorly-timed buybacks, particularly from mega-cap tech companies trading at unsustainable 37x P/E ratios. With rising rates making buybacks dilutive and AI capital intensity increasing, the firm sees opportunity in dividend-focused strategies that offer predictable income streams and historically superior long-term performance versus the broader market. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | ABBV, AESI, AM, CPT, EIX, EQIX, ETR, GSK, HCA, HST, LAMR, LBRT, LNG, LYB, MAA, MRK, MSM, OKE, ORI, PAGP, PCG, RY, SM, SOBO, TRP, USB, VST, WMB | Data centers, dividends, energy, infrastructure, Natural Gas, retirement, Utilities | - | Miller/Howard demonstrates that dividend-focused strategies using high-yield stocks historically outperformed traditional retirement approaches, never failing in 67 simulated 30-year periods while enabling higher spending than the 4% Rule. The firm positions for energy infrastructure growth driven by data centers, LNG exports, and manufacturing onshoring, expecting significant natural gas demand increases and utility load growth. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | asset allocation, Bonds, dividends, equities, inflation, retirement | - | Historical analysis of 67 30-year retirement periods shows high-yield dividend stocks dramatically outperformed bonds and the S&P 500 for retirees. Dividend strategies failed only once versus 30 failures for bonds and 5 for the S&P 500, providing superior inflation protection and consistent outperformance through their natural buy low/sell high rebalancing mechanism. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI advancement, particularly agentic AI, is creating paradigm-shifting disruption across industries. Software companies face threats to their business models as AI agents may reduce subscription needs and enable custom-built solutions. This disruption is causing investors to question the sustainability of growth assumptions embedded in high-multiple stocks. |
Agentic AI Software Disruption Automation Hyperscalers Capex |
DividendsDividend investing provides a natural barrier against chasing growth and offers protection in an age of disruption. High dividend yields combined with strong coverage ratios mathematically result in lower P/E ratios and reduced sensitivity to long-term growth assumptions. This creates a margin of safety against unknown disruption risks. |
Dividend Yield Coverage Ratio Valuation Protection Income | |
ValueValue stocks with front-loaded cash flows and lower growth expectations offer better protection against disruption compared to growth stocks dependent on long-dated terminal values. Lower P/E ratios provide margin of safety when future cash flows become uncertain due to technological disruption. |
P/E Ratios Cash Flow Timing Terminal Value Disruption Protection | |
Infrastructure SpendingHALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) companies including utilities, energy, and transportation provide physical moats that cannot be digitized. These asset-heavy businesses may utilize AI but their core services remain unchanged, offering protection from disruption. |
HALO Physical Assets Utilities Transportation Energy | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager believes AI revolution is fundamentally different from dot-com bubble, driven by current compute demand rather than future applications. Views infrastructure buildout as most secure part of AI food chain. Expects continued volatility but remains bullish on long-term prospects. |
Artificial Intelligence Data Centers Compute Infrastructure GPUs |
Trade PolicyTariffs dominated 2025 volatility but global trade restructuring occurred without triggering trade war. Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality could create renewed uncertainty in early 2026. Manager prefers tariffs fade as investment topic. |
Tariffs Trade IEEPA Global Trade | |
Data CentersThree mega-trends driving insatiable demand: transition from CPU to GPU infrastructure, replacement of recommender systems, and future robotics/digital agents. Current demand exceeds available compute capacity, unlike 2000 telecom overbuild. |
GPU Compute Power Infrastructure Hyperscalers | |
Enterprise SoftwareSector faces heightened uncertainty from AI disruption threats. Manager consolidated exposure to platform companies ServiceNow and Salesforce, eliminating Adobe due to greater disintermediation risk for best-of-breed apps versus comprehensive platforms. |
SaaS Platforms Disintermediation AI Threat | |
| 2025 Q3 |
DividendsMiller/Howard emphasizes dividend increases as the strongest signal of management confidence, with 70% of financial holdings raising dividends by an average 14% in the quarter. The firm projects 2025 dividend growth of 5.0% for Income-Equity and 4.9% for the no-MLP version, maintaining their focus on high current income and dividend growth as core investment principles. |
Dividend Growth Income Financial Strength Management Confidence Cash Flow |
AIThe letter extensively discusses AI's impact on capital expenditures and market dynamics, noting that Magnificent 7 companies have more than doubled annual capex since 2023 to nearly half a trillion dollars by 2027. Miller/Howard views the AI arms race as creating speculative risks while their income-producing companies are positioned to capture AI-driven efficiencies without bearing the considerable costs. |
Capital Expenditure Technology Spending Data Centers Free Cash Flow Speculation | |
Natural GasNatural gas demand is experiencing strong tailwinds from data centers, electrification trends, and exports, with over $10 billion in new midstream projects announced recently. The firm sees a step-change in natural gas demand dynamics between 2014 and 2024, driven primarily by hyperscaler capex and power generation needs for AI infrastructure. |
Data Centers Power Generation Midstream Infrastructure Energy Demand | |
InflationInflation has remained sticky above the Fed's 2% target for over four years, with recent upticks driven by goods inflation and tariff expectations. The firm analyzed high-yield dividend stock performance during inflationary periods, finding positive returns in five of six historical periods with outperformance versus broad markets by approximately 2% annually. |
Fed Policy Tariffs Goods Inflation Interest Rates Economic Environment | |
UtilitiesUtilities are positioned to benefit from AI-driven electricity demand, with the DOE's 2024 National Transmission Planning Study calling for more than doubling current transmission capacity by 2050. This requires building 5,000 miles per year of high-capacity transmission, creating clear opportunities for utilities to deploy incremental capital and earn regulated returns. |
Transmission Power Demand Regulated Returns Infrastructure Investment Grid Expansion | |
| 2025 Q2 |
BuybacksMegacaps have massively increased stock buybacks in recent years, keeping their foot on the buyback accelerator unlike the rest of the S&P 500. Buybacks at the top 10 market cap companies used to be fairly close to dividends but have diverged significantly. Same-company buybacks are highly volatile and unpredictable, dropping by 5% on average over 30 years with much less variance explained compared to dividends. |
Megacaps Volatility Capital Allocation S&P 500 Predictability |
DividendsDividends are viewed as a clear signal that companies are run for shareholders and management has confidence in future profitability. Over 30 years, companies raised dividends by over 2% on average with high predictability (95% variance explained). Dividend growth tends to be steadier than buybacks, with positive growth in 25 of 30 years. High-yield dividend stocks historically returned 12.8% annually versus 11.5% for the S&P 500. |
Predictability Growth Signal Management Shareholder | |
ValueThe firm argues against chasing expensive megacap stocks, particularly given their reliance on buybacks and high valuations. The trailing P/E multiple for top 10 market cap companies was 29.3x versus 24.4x for the S&P 500. High valuations and low dividend yields make the current crop of megacaps unappealing to dividend investors. |
Expensive Valuations P/E Ratios Megacaps Unappealing | |
| 2025 Q1 |
DividendsDividend yields have dropped by over half in the past 30 years, from over 3% in the early 1990s to 1.4% at the end of Q1 2025. The firm views regular dividends as preferable to buybacks because they are more likely to continue, with dividend spending being highly predictive of future dividend spending and growing 3% per year on average. |
Dividend Yield Payout Ratio Income Shareholder Returns Dividend Growth |
BuybacksStock buybacks have grown dramatically, with S&P 500 companies buying back $820 billion in 2024 versus $670 billion in dividends. The firm is skeptical of buyback timing and notes that almost 50% of S&P 500 companies made dilutive share repurchases in 2024, meaning they would have expanded EPS more by investing in Treasury bills. |
Share Repurchases Capital Allocation EPS Accretion Dilutive Treasury Bills | |
AIBuilding artificial intelligence capabilities is propelling capital spending faster than income growth for the Magnificent 7. The firm notes questions about the long-term payoff to massive AI investments have combined with high valuations to remove the low-risk halo from these companies. |
Capital Intensity Investment Technology Capex Returns | |
| 2024 Q4 |
DividendsThe letter extensively analyzes dividend-based retirement strategies, demonstrating that high-yield stocks historically outperformed the S&P 500 with 11.1% vs 9.8% annualized returns from 1928-2023. Dividend spending strategies never failed in 67 simulated 30-year retirements, while allowing higher average spending than the traditional 4% Rule. |
High-yield Income Retirement Yield Coverage |
Data CentersMidstream energy companies announced almost $6 billion of projects to provide natural gas to power data centers in 2024, with another $5 billion under consideration. Data centers are expected to drive 7 billion cubic feet per day of additional natural gas demand, representing a significant growth driver for the energy infrastructure sector. |
AI Power Infrastructure Natural gas Growth | |
Natural GasNatural gas demand is expected to increase by nearly 20% driven by LNG exports doubling by decade-end, US manufacturing onshoring, and data center power requirements. The buildout of additional LNG facilities should begin in 2025, requiring another 20 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas infrastructure. |
LNG Exports Infrastructure Demand Growth | |
Energy TransitionThe letter discusses renewable developers facing headwinds from interest rate sensitivity and potential modifications to the Inflation Reduction Act in 2025. However, utilities are positioned to benefit from strong load growth driven by data centers and AI trends, creating opportunities in the energy transition space. |
Renewables Utilities Load growth Policy Infrastructure | |
| 2024 Q3 |
DividendsHigh-yield dividend stocks outperformed the S&P 500 in every 30-year period from 1928-2023, with only 1 failure out of 67 retirement simulations. They provided better protection during high inflation periods like 1973-1981, when dividend stocks returned 10.7% annually versus 5.3% for the S&P 500. |
High-yield Income Equity Outperformance Protection |
InflationInflation poses a significant threat to retirement portfolios, with no reliable correlation between inflation and equity returns over the past century. Bond-only strategies failed in 30 of 67 30-year retirement periods due to insufficient returns to cover inflation-adjusted spending needs. |
Consumer prices Purchasing power Real returns Retirement risk Correlation |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| XOM | the 2028 consensus capex for these four companies, $750 billion in aggregate, is currently greater than the market capitalization of ExxonMobil (XOM) |
| JPM | the 2028 consensus capex for these four companies, $750 billion in aggregate, is currently greater than the market capitalization of ExxonMobil (XOM) and is approaching that of JP Morgan Chase (JPM, not held) |
| MSFT | Hyperscalers: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta Platforms (META). As of March 31, 2026, Miller/Howard did not hold these stocks in any of its portfolios. |
| AMZN | Hyperscalers: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta Platforms (META). As of March 31, 2026, Miller/Howard did not hold these stocks in any of its portfolios. |
| GOOG | Hyperscalers: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta Platforms (META). As of March 31, 2026, Miller/Howard did not hold these stocks in any of its portfolios. |
| META | Hyperscalers: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta Platforms (META). As of March 31, 2026, Miller/Howard did not hold these stocks in any of its portfolios. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
