Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 26.4% | 9.2% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 26.4% | 9.2% |
Bill Miller IV argues that the Federal Reserve's recent policy shift is far more significant than media headlines suggest. While news outlets focused on the Fed signaling a pause after its sixth rate cut since peak rates, they missed the critical change: the end of quantitative tightening and the beginning of asset purchases. The Fed is expected to purchase at least $40 billion in securities in January, reversing years of draining $50 billion monthly from the system. This shift mirrors September 2019 when policymakers reversed course amid funding market stress. With inflation at 1.85% below the Fed's 2% target and wages growing at 3.8%, the Fed has room to act. The yield curve spread reached its highest level in almost four years, signaling positive conditions ahead. This accommodative stance should benefit Miller's strategies, which favor small- and mid-cap value names trading at large discounts and sensitive to marginal economic activity. The firm also expects Bitcoin exposure via Strategy Inc. to benefit from renewed money printing.
The Fed's underappreciated shift from quantitative tightening to asset purchases represents a more significant monetary policy change than headlines suggest, creating favorable conditions for small- and mid-cap value strategies and risk assets like Bitcoin.
The manager expects the Fed's shift to heavy accommodation through asset purchases will support continued economic expansion and higher equity prices, particularly benefiting small- and mid-cap value strategies.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 2026 | 2025 Q4 | BTC-USD, STGY | Bitcoin, Economic Growth, Fed, liquidity, monetary policy, rates, small caps, value | - | The Fed has shifted from quantitative tightening to asset purchases, representing a significant change in monetary policy. The Fed is expected to purchase at least… |
| Oct 15 2025 | 2025 Q3 | BFH, NBR | deep value, small caps, Technology Bubble, Turnarounds, Value Investing |
NBR BFH |
Miller argues small- and micro-cap value stocks are at the start of a multi-year recovery after years of underperformance. Overvalued technology and Magnificent 7 stocks… |
| Jul 21 2025 | 2025 Q2 | GCI, JELD, NBR | deep value, Market Concentration, Mean reversion, small caps, Valuations |
GCI TPC JELD NBR |
The letter emphasizes deep value opportunities in small and micro-cap equities following an extended period of underperformance and extreme valuation dispersion. Management draws parallels to… |
| Apr 14 2025 | 2025 Q1 | GCI, GTN, JELD, QUAD, UNFI | - | - | - |
| Jan 13 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 10 2024 | 2024 Q3 | GCI, NBR, QUAD, UNFI | - | - | - |
| Jul 2 2024 | 2024 Q2 | GTN, IT, NBR, UNFI | - | - | - |
| Apr 26 2024 | 2024 Q1 | FOSL, GTN, LNC, TPC | - | - | - |
| Jan 19 2024 | 2023 Q4 | BKE, JXN, MED, OGN, RILY, WAL | - | - | - |
| Oct 17 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AXL, BFH, CHS, FOSL, GTN | - | - | - |
| Jul 14 2023 | 2023 Q2 | GCI, GTN, NBR, NVDA, NYT, QUAD, WAL | - | - | - |
| Apr 14 2023 | 2023 Q1 | GCI, MHO, NGR | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
CryptoCryptocurrency exposure through Coinbase reflects positioning for financial deregulation and disintermediation, with stablecoins expected to become a preferred transfer mechanism following regulatory developments like the GENIUS Act passage. |
Digital Assets Blockchain Stablecoins Regulation FinTech |
LiquidityReal world dollar liquidity fell 8.3% in 2025, marking a fourth consecutive year of decline. Commercial bank loans remained virtually unchanged despite Fed rate cuts, with banks channeling funds to high-risk areas rather than consumers and small businesses. |
Credit Banking Money Supply | |
RatesFed cut rates by 25bps on December 10 while describing growth as moderate and inflation as still somewhat elevated. Markets took message as cut now, likely pause soon. The opportunity set was less about calling one Fed meeting and more about trading the path via rates and FX. |
Fed Easing Policy Duration Curve | |
Small CapsConcentrated portfolio of small-cap companies with limited sell-side coverage and institutional ownership. Invests where most institutional managers cannot or will not participate, allowing for asymmetric return potential. 44% of Russell 2000 stocks have zero Wall Street coverage, creating mispriced opportunities. |
Russell 2000 Limited Coverage Institutional Asymmetric Mispriced | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Small CapsConcentrated portfolio of small-cap companies with limited sell-side coverage and institutional ownership. Invests where most institutional managers cannot or will not participate, allowing for asymmetric return potential. 44% of Russell 2000 stocks have zero Wall Street coverage, creating mispriced opportunities. |
Russell 2000 Limited Coverage Institutional Asymmetric Mispriced |
ValueThe portfolio trades at significant discounts to the broad market, with P/E ratios 40-42% below the S&P 500. The manager believes many steady-growing companies are overlooked by markets focused on AI winners, creating opportunities in businesses with lower assumed margins and productivity that could benefit from AI adoption. |
Discount Multiples Undervalued Overlooked Opportunity | |
| 2025 Q2 |
SmallCaps |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Lysik | GCI | Gannett Co. Inc. | Communication Services | Publishing | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | cashflow, Digital, media, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| Jul 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Lysik | TPC | Tutor Perini Corp. | Industrials | Construction & Engineering | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | backlog, construction, infrastructure, Margins, recovery | Login |
| Jul 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Lysik | JELD | JELD-WEN Holding Inc. | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Buildingproducts, Costcutting, Housing, Margins, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Lysik | NBR | Nabors Industries Ltd. | Energy | Oil & Gas Drilling | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Automation, cashflow, deleveraging, Drilling, synergies | Login |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Lysik | NBR | Nabors Industries Ltd. | Energy | Oil & Gas Drilling | Bull | NYSE | Asset Sale, Automation, Contracts, deleveraging, Drilling, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield | Login |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Daniel Lysik | BFH | Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NYSE | credit cards, Deposits, earnings yield, Normalization, Reserves, Rotce, underwriting | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| BTC-USD | Bitcoin, a technology we have exposure to in our portfolios via an investment in Strategy Inc., also historically has often been a major beneficiary of printing press engagement. |
| STGY | Bitcoin, a technology we have exposure to in our portfolios via an investment in Strategy Inc., also historically has often been a major beneficiary of printing press engagement. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||