| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 0% | 0% |
The manager returned to active investing in Q3 2024 after reforming their personal account, focusing on hunting market dislocations where quality businesses trade at both relative and absolute valuation discounts. The strategy emphasizes identifying variant perceptions with catalysts for change rather than rigorous intrinsic value modeling. Key investments included Google during AI-related concerns, where the manager believed the Twitter echo chamber had created excessive pessimism about the company's AI capabilities and search moat. A second major opportunity emerged during the June Salesforce crash, where the manager invested in quality SaaS companies including Atlassian and Braze, viewing the SaaS is dead sentiment as overblown. The manager extensively used LEAPS options for liquid large-cap positions while holding common equity in smaller companies. By quarter-end, the portfolio evolved into a diversified barbell strategy with serial acquirers as core holdings and higher-risk positions on either side. The account returned 7.9% for the quarter versus 5.4% for the S&P 500.
Hunt for market dislocations where quality businesses trade at both relative and absolute valuation discounts, focusing on variant perceptions with identifiable catalysts for change.
Nothing in the market stands out as meaningfully undervalued or dislocated right now, even in many small caps. The portfolio is much more diversified as a result since the manager doesn't have conviction in any one idea to concentrate.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BRZE, CRM, GOOGL, KO, PEP, TEAM | AI, dislocations, growth, Options, SaaS, technology, value | - | Manager hunts market dislocations with variant perceptions and clear catalysts. Successfully invested in Google during AI pessimism and SaaS companies during the Salesforce crash. Uses LEAPS options for large-cap exposure. Portfolio now diversified around serial acquirers with higher-risk positions on the sides. Outperformed with 7.9% quarterly return versus 5.4% for S&P 500. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q3 |
SaaSManager invested in SaaS companies during the June Salesforce crash, viewing quality businesses as trading at both absolute and relative discounts. Positioned in Atlassian, Braze, and a small cap vertical market SaaS company, believing the SaaS is dead crowd was becoming too loud. |
Enterprise Software Cloud Growth Vertical Software CRM |
AIGoogle investment was based on variant perception that the company still had some of the best AI talent and that concerns about Google being behind on AI were overblown. The Twitter echo chamber around Perplexity and OpenAI search threats created a dislocation opportunity. |
Search Technology Large Cap Gemini Disruption |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| GOOGL | There may be no company out there more studied and followed than Google. And yet, since this tweet the stock is up 26% and at the highs was up 44%. My variant perception was that Google still had some of the best talent, search was far from being disrupted, and the echo chamber had permeated way too far from a few loud voices. The catalyst for change would be Google showing more of what they have accomplished historically in AI and correcting the mistakes of Gemini. I put 100% of my (very small at the time) account in GOOGL Jan 120 2026 Calls. A month later I sold for a 50% gain…4 months later those LEAPS were up 200%+. |
| CRM | As luck would have it, just a few weeks later in June we had the Salesforce crash. Longer time SaaS investors will remember 2016 when a similar event happened. Salesforce reported a large slowdown in growth and the enterprise software market tanked as well. |
| TEAM | My TEAM position was expressed through Jan 120 2026 Calls. In one month my Atlassian options were up 40%. Shortly thereafter Atlassian hit new lows for the year before rebounding back to where I originally purchased. |
| BRZE | BRZE and the small cap vertical market SaaS company both have too small market caps for a liquid, long term option market to exist so both of those were expressed through common equity. Braze was up 23%. |
| PEP | Why does Pepsi trade at a discount to Coke? You can easily identify that the P/E multiple is lower. |
| KO | Why does Pepsi trade at a discount to Coke? You can easily identify that the P/E multiple is lower. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
