Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Minotaur Capital's December 2025 quarterly focuses on AI's step-change in capability through two key developments: skills that expand AI functionality and loops that enable continuous iteration until task completion. The fund experienced this transformation firsthand, building AI assistants and automation systems over the holiday period. This progress threatens traditional software business models through build vs buy dynamics, competitive intensity, and per-seat pricing pressure. Software stocks have been hammered, with HubSpot down 55% and Atlassian halving from January levels. The fund reduced software exposure including cutting Atlassian despite previous bullish commentary, as unit economics and defensibility shift rapidly. However, they maintain conviction in the AI supercycle through positions in Nvidia and memory makers. The fund initiated a position in Hut 8 following their $7 billion, 15-year data center lease to Anthropic backed by Google, yielding approximately 15% unlevered. The managers emphasize staying right as facts evolve, building AI systems that encode their investment philosophy to maintain edge in rapidly changing markets.
AI has reached a step-change in capability through skills and loop-based automation, fundamentally altering software industry dynamics while creating infrastructure demand opportunities.
The pace of AI development continues to accelerate with potential for further step-changes in capability. The fund expects continued pressure on traditional software models while infrastructure demand remains strong. Value may shift toward platforms that can govern agentic workflows rather than those serving traditional user interfaces.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ADBE, CRM, GOOGL, HUBS, HUT, MSFT, NVDA, TEAM | AI, Automation, Data centers, infrastructure, software, technology |
HUT TEAM |
AI has experienced a step-change in capability through two key shifts: skills that expand what AI can touch, and loops that move from chatting to… |
| Oct 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 7CD GR | Artificial Intelligence, gaming, Global Equities, IP Expansion, productivity |
CDR CDR |
The fund spotlighted CD Projekt as a case study in scaling high-return intellectual property while maintaining quality, exemplifying global value opportunities outside the U.S. Managers… |
| Jul 28 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, diversification, fundamentals, mispricing, variant perception | - | The letter frames the investment process around identifying global mispricings rather than adhering to style boxes or factor labels. Management emphasizes variant perception, diversified exposure,… |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | IPX AU, RHM GR | - | - | - |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | ALO FP | - | - | - |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | 4519 JP, KITW LN | - | - | - |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 5253 JP, PRY IM | - | - | - |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2023 Q1 | IPX, MDB, RHM GR, TSLA, ZG | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
Data CentersComfort Systems USA benefited from robust demand for data centers and AI-related infrastructure, with the company reporting stronger-than-expected revenue driven by this demand. |
Infrastructure Technology Construction AI Revenue | |
Software |
||
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
GamingGames Workshop was identified as a largest contributor in 2025 and also contributed meaningfully in 2024, demonstrating that patience pays when a business is delivering consistent results over multiple years. |
Entertainment Consumer UK Franchise | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Mispricing |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Armina Rosenberg | CDR | PD CD Projekt SA | Energy | Interactive Home Entertainment | Bull | NYSE | compounding, Ip, Margins, Reinvestment, Scalability, Unreal engine, Video games | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Armina Rosenberg | CDR | PD CD Projekt SA | Energy | Interactive Home Entertainment | Bull | NYSE | compounding, Ip, Margins, Reinvestment, Scalability, Unreal engine, Video games | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Armina Rosenberg | HUT | Hut 8 Corp. | Information Technology | Data Centers & Cloud Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, cashflow, Contracts, datacenters, infrastructure | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Armina Rosenberg | TEAM | Atlassian Corporation | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | NASDAQ | Agents, Apis, Defensibility, disruption, Monetisation, Orchestration, Pricingpower, Workflows | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ADBE | Later in the quarter we initiated Adobe, a stock we have held before, where we believe AI is more likely to enhance the product suite than disrupt it. |
| CRM | We trimmed Salesforce Inc. |
| GOOGL | I'm willing to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. Larry Page, co-founder of Google |
| HUBS | HubSpot Inc., a cloud-based customer relationship management platform provider, dropped by -14%. The company delivered a beat-and-raise quarter, but elevated expectations following its September Analyst Day—where it disclosed 25% year-on-year growth in net new annualized recurring revenues for the first half of 2025—led investors to anticipate near-term revenue acceleration. This improvement is expected to materialize gradually rather than immediately. In our subsequent meeting with the company, their CEO expressed confidence in sustained core growth levers, including platform consolidation, multi-hub adoption, and strong upmarket momentum. |
| HUT | We also initiated a position in Hut 8 during the quarter. On December 17, Hut 8 announced a 15-year, 245 MW data centre lease to Anthropic at their River Bend campus in Louisiana, backstopped by Google (AA+ credit), with a total contract value of US$7 billion. We bought the stock that day. At mid-point build cost estimates and before capitalised interest, the project yields ~15% unlevered in year one, rising with 3% annual escalators over the lease term. |
| MSFT | OpenAI's well-documented 'circular' funding with its business partners (NVIDIA, Microsoft, among others) is additional cause for concern. |
| NVDA | Nvidia sits at the top of the S&P 500 as the designer in the AI ecosystem. |
| TEAM | We sold Atlassian, which produces collaboration software, as we reduced our overweight exposure to software because we feel that AI has widened the range of outcomes for predominantly seat-based revenue models. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||