| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Montaka maintains a concentrated portfolio of competitively advantaged businesses positioned for the reversal of extreme market mispricings. While the fund delivered positive returns in Q2 2026, the trailing 12-month period was materially negative due to the SaaSpocalypse selloff in software and AI-exposed names. However, portfolio earnings power continued growing at annual rates in the teens even as valuation multiples compressed substantially. The market has been dominated by historically cyclical semiconductor stocks up 170% and metals stocks up 60%, while quality software and financial platforms have been overlooked. Manager sees significant downside risk in rallied cyclicals and significant upside in advantaged businesses like Visa, Mastercard, and Salesforce that are priced for overly conservative growth despite strong fundamentals. Political backlash against AI buildout is emerging due to electricity costs and inequality concerns, while smaller AI model adoption could disrupt semiconductor demand. Portfolio actions included substantially increasing Visa and Mastercard positions while trimming TSMC and Alphabet after their run-ups. Manager remains confident this approach will deliver excess long-term returns as mispricings reverse.
Montaka is positioned for the reversal of extreme market mispricings where historically cyclical semiconductor and commodity stocks have driven overwhelming index returns while the world's most durably advantaged businesses with dominant market positions are priced for overly conservative expectations far below what they will deliver.
Manager expects extreme market mispricings to reverse with significant downside in cyclical semiconductor and commodity stocks that have rallied sharply, and significant upside in competitively advantaged businesses currently overlooked. Believes concentrated portfolio of high-conviction, long-duration businesses bought at attractive prices will deliver excess returns over the long term despite near-term headwinds from narrow market leadership.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15 2026 | 2026 Q2 | 0700.HK, AMZN, BX, CRM, DASH, FND, GOOGL, KKR, MA, MDB, META, MSFT, NOW, REA.AX, SPGI, SPOT, TSCO.L, TSM, U, V | AI, Cloud, defense, payments, Quality, semiconductors, software, valuation | - | Montaka is positioned for mean reversion as semiconductor mania has created extreme mispricings. Portfolio earnings grew at teens annually while multiples compressed during the SaaSpocalypse. Manager substantially increased Visa and Mastercard exposure, seeing major mispricing as these extraordinarily advantaged payment networks trade at 4% implied growth versus expected double-digit rates. Believes AI buildout faces political and technological disruption while quality software platforms like Salesforce represent compelling opportunities at trough valuations. |
| Apr 23 2026 | 2026 Q1 | BA.L, CRM, ICE, KKR, META, MSFT, SPGI, TSM, UBER | AI, Cloud, defense, geopolitics, semiconductors, software, Valuations |
BA.L TSM UBER ICE |
Montaka's March quarter saw broad portfolio declines driven by valuation compression, not fundamental weakness. The manager added BAE Systems, TSMC, Uber, and Intercontinental Exchange while maintaining conviction in AI infrastructure and defense themes. Despite short-term volatility from geopolitical conflicts and software sector narratives, strong competitive advantages are now available at attractive valuations, creating compelling long-term opportunities. |
| Jan 31 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 0700.HK, ALB, AMZN, BX, CRM, FND, GOOGL, KKR, MA, MDB, META, MOGL.AX, MSFT, NOW, ORCL, REA.AX, SPGI, SPOT, U, V | AI, Cloud, geopolitics, Lithium, software, technology, value |
ALB FND NOW BX KKR |
Montaka's Q4 2025 letter highlights strategic repositioning amid AI-driven market transformation. Despite underperformance, they added to undervalued enterprise software and payment companies while trimming winners. New lithium investment Albemarle reflects supply shortage thesis. Manager emphasizes long-term structural change focus while acknowledging geopolitical risks and inequality concerns. Portfolio risk-adjusted upside improved significantly. |
| Nov 7 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 0700.HK, AMD, AMZN, BX, CRM, DASH, FLUT.L, FND, GOOGL, KKR, MC.PA, MDB, META, MSFT, NOW, NVDA, ORCL, RIGD.NS, SPOT, U | AI, First Principles, Flywheel, growth, long duration, Structural Change, technology, value | - | Montaka focuses on advantaged businesses within long-term structural changes, adding DoorDash for its winner-take-most food delivery position while trimming Flutter and adding to undervalued LVMH. Despite political uncertainty and complex macro backdrop including US trade policy shifts and geopolitical tensions, the firm sees abundant opportunities in AI-driven transformations with years of runway ahead. |
| Jul 24 2025 | 2025 Q2 | BX, FND, KKR, MC.PA, SPOT | active management, Competitive Advantage, Concentration, Flywheels, long-term, Quality |
FND FND |
Montaka delivered 20%+ annualized returns across multiple timeframes through concentrated ownership of competitively advantaged businesses with flywheel dynamics. The firm used Q2 2025 market volatility to add to positions like KKR while maintaining 76% concentration in top holdings. Their focus on companies sharing economics with customers creates self-reinforcing growth cycles that should drive continued outperformance. |
| Jan 7 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AMZN, BABA, BX, CRM, FND, GOOGL, KD, KKR, MC.PA, MDB, META, MSFT, NOW, SPGI, SPOT, UNH | AI, Alternative Assets, Cloud, Concentration, Enterprise Software, growth, technology | - | Montaka's concentrated portfolio of advantaged businesses within structural transformations delivered strong Q4 results. The fund is positioned for four 2025 cyclical upswings: alternative asset monetizations, enterprise AI deployments, policy tailwinds, and housing recovery. Top holdings include AI-advantaged hyperscalers and enterprise software leaders plus alternative asset managers Blackstone and KKR. The MFF tie-up provides permanent capital for long-duration compounding. |
| Oct 17 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AMD, AMZN, BX, CRM, FND, GOOGL, KD, KKR, MA, META, MSFT, NOW, SPGI, SPOT, V | AI, Asset Management, Cloud Computing, Global Equities, long-term, payments, technology | - | Montaka maintains concentrated exposure to advantaged companies in cloud computing, payments, asset management, and AI-enabled platforms. The fund opportunistically added Floor & Decor and increased Amazon allocation during Q3 volatility. With solid fundamentals, falling rates, and reasonable valuations, the manager sees abundant opportunities despite near-term political and geopolitical risks. |
| Jul 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, BRK-A, BX, GOOGL, KD, KKR, MC.PA, META, MSFT, NVDA, SPOT, TSLA | AI, Cloud, Compounding, Concentration, growth, technology, value | - | Montaka defends their concentrated tech and alternative asset management strategy despite market concerns about the Magnificent Seven's dominance. With Microsoft, Amazon, KKR and Blackstone comprising 40% of holdings, they argue current valuations offer excellent long-term value when viewed through five-year earnings multiples. The AI revolution and structural industry growth support their unchanged positioning for continued compounding. |
| Apr 27 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AAPL, AMD, BX, KD, MC.PA, MRNA, WMT | AI, compounders, global, Structural Change, technology |
AMD KD |
Montaka continues strong performance with portfolio companies showing robust earnings growth that remains underappreciated. Added tactical positions in AMD and Kyndryl while exiting Apple on valuation. AI demand exceeding expectations with AMD forecasts revised dramatically upward. US economy strong, inflation moderating, rate cuts expected. Focused on structural transformation winners with competitive protection trading below intrinsic value. |
| Jan 28 2024 | 2023 Q4 | 0700.HK, AMZN, BABA, BX, CG, CRM, GOOGL, KKR, LVMH.PA, META, MSFT, NOW, SPGI, SPOT, V | AI, Alternative Assets, compounders, Digital Marketing, Financial Services, global, Luxury, technology |
MC.PA ABX KKR SPGI ^VIX |
Montaka delivered strong 2023 performance owning megacap winners while maintaining concentrated exposure to structural transformation themes. Added LVMH after 30% decline, sold Carlyle Group. Portfolio focused on AI beneficiaries, alternative asset managers, luxury brands, and mission-critical financial platforms. Low turnover strategy emphasizes time horizon arbitrage with multi-year earnings power growth expectations exceeding market pricing. |
| Oct 19 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AMZN, BAC, CRM, META, MSFT, NOW, SPOT, STJ.L, U | active management, AI, Cloud, Concentration, geopolitics, Streaming, technology | - | Montaka's concentrated global equity strategy delivered strong Q3 results, owning 11 of the top-performing S&P 500 stocks. The team believes markets have entered a higher dispersion period favoring active management. Key holdings like Salesforce demonstrated impressive margin expansion while AI advances create new opportunities. Portfolio remains US-weighted with minimal China exposure given geopolitical risks. |
| Aug 8 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, BX, CRM, GOOGL, KKR, META, MSFT, NOW, NVDA, SPOT, TSLA | AI, Alternative Assets, Cloud, growth, large cap, technology, US |
AMZN AAPL|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|UNH ADI|BDX|FI|FND|HAS|META|MSFT|MSI|ORCL|TMO ABX KKR |
Montaka's concentrated portfolio of AI and cloud leaders delivered strong first-half returns but managers are holding tight despite gains. Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are capturing multi-trillion-dollar AI opportunities while trading below 2022 levels. Alternative asset managers Blackstone and KKR are positioned for private wealth expansion. Economic backdrop improving with moderating inflation and expected Fed rate cuts. |
| Apr 12 2023 | 2023 Q1 | AMD, BAC, GOOGL, MSFT | AI, Banking, China, credit, geopolitics, Microsoft, semiconductors, technology |
ABAC AMD |
Montaka added Bank of America and AMD as tactical plays while trimming Alphabet due to AI disruption risks. GPT-4's release marks a historic inflection point, with Microsoft monetizing AI integration. Banking stress benefits large institutions through deposit flows. Economic slowdown ahead but should enable Fed easing. Portfolio positioned for AI-driven opportunities despite near-term headwinds. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIManager sees AI buildout becoming bumpy due to political backlash, affordability concerns, and potential disruption from smaller model adoption. Rising populism and electricity costs create political risks for data center approvals. Smaller AI models requiring less compute could create temporary excess capacity, disrupting semiconductor demand. |
Data Centers Semiconductors Compute Models Politics |
SemiconductorsManager explicitly bearish on semiconductor stocks that have rallied 170% on average. Believes implicit assumptions about ever-larger AI models and cost-insensitive compute demand are flawed. Sees significant downside risk as smaller model adoption could reduce infrastructure needs and trigger capex downgrades by hyperscalers. |
Semiconductor Cycle Data Centers Capex Memory TSMC | |
Enterprise SoftwareManager is highly bullish on competitively advantaged software businesses that have been oversold during the SaaSpocalypse. Believes the market wrongly assumes AI makes software obsolete, when in reality platforms like Salesforce provide the trusted deployment layer for AI agents. Sees significant upside as these businesses continue growing earnings in the teens while valuations have collapsed. |
SaaS CRM Salesforce ServiceNow Valuation | |
PaymentsManager substantially increased positions in Visa and Mastercard, viewing them as extraordinarily advantaged businesses with consistent double-digit revenue growth. Believes current valuations price in only 4% annual revenue growth versus expected continued strong growth from new value-added services including stablecoins, agentic commerce, and fraud detection. |
Visa Mastercard Networks Stablecoins Growth | |
Defense SpendingManager sees global rearmament trend as durable regardless of specific war outcomes. Governments globally are increasing defense spending, which may ironically maintain global peace. Continues to see investment opportunity in BAE Systems based on this structural trend. |
Defense BAE Systems Geopolitics Spending | |
CloudCloud computing represents the largest portfolio exposure at 20% of NAV. Manager maintains conviction in dominant cloud platforms including Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Tencent as competitively advantaged businesses despite recent market volatility and valuation compression. |
Cloud Infrastructure Amazon Microsoft Alphabet Platform | |
ValuationManager sees extreme mispricings with historically cyclical stocks trading at elevated levels while durably advantaged businesses are priced for overly conservative expectations. Portfolio earnings power grew at annual rates in the teens while multiples compressed substantially. Believes this gap between price and value will close. |
Multiples Earnings Mispricing Quality | |
| 2026 Q1 |
AIManager sees great investment opportunity in Western cloud hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet) due to exponential growth in compute demand, limited capacity expansion, and strengthening competitive advantages. AI adoption is accelerating enterprise cloud migration beyond just AI workloads. |
Cloud Hyperscalers Compute Infrastructure Enterprise |
Defense SpendingManager believes a rearmament supercycle is underway driven by shift toward multipolar world and reduced US security reliance. Added BAE Systems as beneficiary of structural acceleration in global defense spending with countercyclical value during conflicts. |
Rearmament NATO Geopolitics Military Contractors | |
CloudGrowth in compute demand far outstrips capacity expansion due to physical and political bottlenecks, giving pricing power to hyperscalers. Barriers to entry are rising with tens of billions required quarterly for competitive infrastructure. |
Infrastructure Capacity Pricing Power Barriers Investment | |
SemiconductorsAdded TSMC as world's effective monopolist in AI semiconductor fabrication. Enhanced power efficiency will be primary source of compute capacity expansion, giving TSMC extreme pricing power that remains underestimated by markets. |
Fabrication Monopoly Power Efficiency Pricing Power Taiwan | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIMassive capex cycle linked to AI representing increasing cash flow from hyperscalers. Signs that AI adoption is flatlining with unclear use cases for profitability. Reliance on Magnificent 7 for equity market performance continues, with credit markets becoming increasingly sensitive to AI companies. |
Artificial Intelligence Hyperscalers Capex Technology Valuations |
GoldExceptionally strong performance with gold returning 65% for 2025 and silver 148%. Trend continued into 2026 with gold rising 13.3% and silver 18.9% by end of January. Extreme moves following very strong performance last year. |
Precious Metals Safe Haven Inflation Hedge Commodities | |
CreditCredit spreads remained tight at historic levels with returns mainly generated by carry. Four of the largest credit issuers in 2025 were hyperscalers. High dispersion under tight spreads with significant refinancing requirements in 2026-2027. |
Credit Spreads Corporate Bonds Refinancing High Yield | |
GeopoliticalPresident Maduro taken from Venezuela, fracturing of Western alliance as Trump looked to acquire Greenland, protests in Iran violently suppressed. Tensions between countries may make cross-border transactions more difficult as countries favor national champions. |
Geopolitics Venezuela Iran Trade Policy National Security | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI is accelerating change across the economy with both prudent and risky capital allocations. Companies like Meta, Alphabet, and Tencent are investing enormous sums and earning significant returns due to AI's complementarity with their core businesses. However, OpenAI's massive spending commitments raise questions about revenue generation and customer validation. |
Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Data Analytics Automation Cloud |
E-commerceDoorDash represents the evolution of online food ordering into a critical marketing and commerce platform for merchants. The company exhibits winner-take-most dynamics with numerous adjacencies and flywheel effects that strengthen competitive advantages over time through user density, merchant attraction, and loyalty programs. |
Online Commerce Digital Platforms Marketplaces Food Delivery Consumer Technology | |
LuxuryLVMH can be acquired on a depressed multiple of temporarily depressed earnings despite its irreplicable brands. The global luxury giant represents significant undervaluation that Montaka has been adding to during the quarter. |
Premium Brands Consumer Discretionary Global Brands Retail Fashion | |
GamingTencent's gaming businesses benefit from AI through improved coaching of new players and accelerating game-creation productivity. International gaming is growing at 35% per annum, representing one of the fastest-growing segments within Tencent's portfolio. |
Video Games Entertainment Digital Content Mobile Gaming Interactive Media | |
CloudTencent operates as a major player in cloud computing with flywheel dynamics where increased business usage drives greater scale and lower fixed costs. Cloud computing revenue is growing in the teens percentage despite being capacity constrained on AI chips. |
Cloud Computing Infrastructure Data Centers Enterprise Software Technology Services | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Competitive AdvantageMontaka focuses on companies with three types of competitive advantages: economies of scale, customer captivity, and irreplicable assets. These advantages create barriers to entry and enable higher returns on invested capital over time. |
Moats Barriers Scale Captivity Assets |
FlywheelsThe firm emphasizes flywheel dynamics where companies share economics with customers, creating self-reinforcing cycles that strengthen competitive advantages over time. This dynamic drives greater customer adoption, market share, and scale. |
Dynamics Self-reinforcing Customer Scale Growth | |
Alternative Asset ManagersBlackstone and KKR are highlighted as examples of flywheel dynamics, leveraging their scale and full-service offerings to source attractive deals and attract top talent, creating mutually beneficial relationships with clients. |
Private Equity Scale Deals Talent Returns | |
StreamingSpotify exemplifies flywheel dynamics through its free ad-supported tier and low subscription price, creating customer value while gathering data to improve the service for all users. |
Music Data Subscription Value Users | |
Home ImprovementFloor & Decor demonstrates competitive advantages through specialization in hard surface flooring, economies of scale with suppliers, and sharing cost savings with customers through lower prices and wider selection. |
Flooring Scale Pricing Selection Retail | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIAI represents a major structural transformation where the marginal cost of intelligence is rapidly approaching zero, catalyzing infusion into nearly all aspects of life and the economy. Montaka focuses on owning business advantages in AI rather than technologies, including economies of scale in compute delivery and embedded distribution channels. Enterprise deployments of AI applications are expected to accelerate meaningfully in 2025. |
Enterprise Software Cloud Data Centers Automation Productivity |
Alternative Asset ManagersBlackstone and KKR are positioned to benefit from structural tailwinds including Asian wealth growth, global private wealth allocations to alternatives, and strategic partnerships with insurers. A cyclical upswing in monetizations is expected to accelerate in 2025, boosting performance fees and enabling capital recycling for new funds. |
Private Equity Asset Management Monetizations Performance Fees Capital Recycling | |
CloudOngoing cloud migrations and digital transformations remain in early innings with 80-85% of enterprise workloads still residing on-premise. The three major hyperscalers Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are highly advantaged and positioned to benefit from structurally growing demand for compute, with capacity constraints expected to ease in 2025. |
Data Centers Enterprise Software Digital Transformation Hyperscalers Compute | |
Enterprise SoftwareEnterprise software companies with mission-critical positions and accumulated customer knowledge are uniquely positioned to benefit from AI as a multiplier of existing advantages. Salesforce's Agentforce and ServiceNow's AI-enabled features represent pivotal adoption opportunities in 2025, with potential to significantly expand total addressable markets. |
SaaS AI Customer Data Productivity Mission Critical | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AIAI revolution is overwhelmingly native to the cloud and will drive incremental growth in cloud usage due to its inherently higher compute intensity. Enormous value can be unlocked through productivity enhancements on the enterprise side and engagement boosters on the consumer side. Most value is unlocked when AI models are married with customer data and meta data, favoring incumbents with decades of dataset building and existing customer bases for distribution. |
Machine Learning Enterprise Software Data Analytics Cloud Computing Productivity |
CloudCloud computing market is more than $250 billion excluding China and growing at approximately 25% annually, yet only represents 15-20% of total IT workloads with 80-85% still on-premise. Cloud-based workloads offer better total cost, security and flexibility, driving sustained migration. The space is highly concentrated with Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet holding at least 65% combined market share with extraordinary scale advantages through $150 billion in capital investments and $110 billion in R&D annually. |
Infrastructure Enterprise Software Data Centers SaaS Migration | |
PaymentsVisa and Mastercard operate duopolies in global payment processing with competitively protected and reliably growing core businesses. They have significant growth opportunities in new processing areas including peer-to-peer, business-to-business, business-to-consumer, and government-to-consumer payments, plus value-added services including risk, fraud-detection, issuance, acceptance, and open banking. |
FinTech Digital Payments Financial Services Transaction Processing Network Effects | |
Alternative Asset ManagersBlackstone and KKR have been successfully investing client capital for nearly 40 and 50 years respectively, with more than $1.6 trillion in assets under management between them. The alternatives space sits at around $12 trillion today and is set to grow substantially, driven by growth in three underpenetrated markets: Asia, the insurance sector, and the enormous private wealth channel. This growth will likely disproportionately favor today's leaders. |
Private Equity Asset Management Institutional Capital Fee Income Scale Advantages | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIThe letter emphasizes AI as a huge boost to mega-cap tech companies, with Nvidia taking advantage of its stranglehold on insatiable demand for AI chips in a supply constrained market. Amazon and Microsoft's hyperscale cloud platforms AWS and Azure are positioned to keep winning big from the AI revolution. |
Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Chips Computing Revolution |
CloudAmazon and Microsoft are among the largest holdings because of their leading hyperscale cloud platforms AWS and Azure. The letter positions these platforms as key beneficiaries of the AI revolution and structural growth drivers. |
AWS Azure Infrastructure Computing Platforms | |
Alternative Asset ManagersKKR and Blackstone are top holdings representing almost 20% of the portfolio because the managers believe they will continue to lead explosive growth in the alternative asset management industry. The letter details parallels between KKR and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. |
Private Equity Asset Management Growth Industry Leadership | |
StreamingSpotify is highlighted as the best performer and the stock that has added the most value to the portfolio this year, described as the world's pre-eminent audio streaming company with a 67% share price gain in the first half. |
Audio Music Digital Entertainment Platform | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AIThe AI wave has commenced and is already much larger than previously anticipated by industry insiders. AMD's AI chip was just released and the company revised their AI chip revenue forecast from $2 billion to $3.5 billion in just 92 days due to overwhelming customer demand. Future earnings forecasts for AMD will likely need substantial upward revisions. |
Semiconductors Chips Revenue Growth Demand Forecasts |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIMontaka sees AI winners across three dimensions: those that can distribute AI benefits to customers (Microsoft, ServiceNow, Salesforce, Spotify), those that employ AI in their operations (Meta, Alphabet), and those that sell compute and services for AI applications (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet). The firm believes large-scale AI rollouts have not yet begun despite early experimentation. |
Machine Learning Cloud Enterprise Software Data Centers Hyperscalers |
Alternative Asset ManagersThe alternative asset management space is undergoing structural transformation with significant room to grow from $10 trillion today toward global stocks and bonds of $200+ trillion. Growth drivers include insurance partnerships ($30 trillion), retail/private wealth channels ($80+ trillion), and Asian allocations. Scale advantages favor leading managers like Blackstone and KKR. |
Private Equity Asset Management Insurance Wealth Management Scale | |
LuxuryLVMH owns prestigious brands including Christian Dior and Louis Vuitton. In a world where the wealthy continue to grow wealthier, price increases are not questioned by customers and actually increase brand cachet and exclusivity. Long-term profit margins will likely exceed market expectations due to pricing power. |
Premium Brands Pricing Power Wealth Exclusivity Margins | |
Digital MarketingDigital marketing gatekeepers like Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Tencent continue growing in importance for revenue generation across industries. As businesses become more sophisticated with customer data and platforms improve targeting, advertisers' willingness to pay grows structurally. L'Oreal exemplifies this with 75% digital allocation driving 15% revenue growth. |
Advertising Data Analytics Customer Targeting ROI Platform | |
Financial ServicesMission-critical financial platforms like S&P Global and Visa are undervalued. S&P Global faces temporary ratings demand weakness but $8 trillion in refinancings through 2026 will drive earnings recovery. Visa's newer businesses in Visa Direct and B2B payments offer higher growth and large addressable markets beyond core consumer payments. |
Credit Ratings Payments Refinancing B2B Networks | |
| 2023 Q3 |
AIRecent advances in the AI revolution are moving at the fastest pace of all. ChatGPT can now see, hear and talk. Microsoft is releasing its Copilot. Meta AI is being infused into Meta's properties and hardware. Spotify is using AI to translate podcasts. ServiceNow is using generative AI to dramatically increase productivity of service assistants. |
Artificial Intelligence Generative AI Productivity Automation Machine Learning |
CloudMontaka remains very happy with major investee companies including cloud businesses. These are businesses that have tremendous advantages that remain underappreciated. The team has been particularly pleased with significant cost controls effected by these businesses, with Salesforce demonstrating operating margin improvements of more than 10 percentage points year-over-year. |
Software SaaS Operating Leverage Cost Control Margins | |
StreamingSpotify remains an investment opportunity with a wide lead in global audio streaming and tremendous data advantages that will result in further monetisation opportunities. Cost-base rationalization will be the primary driver of substantial profit growth over the next 1-2 years, which remains underappreciated by the stock market. |
Audio Data Monetization Cost Optimization Profit Growth Market Leadership | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIAI is driving a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity in cloud computing, with AWS and Microsoft Azure capitalizing through specialized chips, machine learning models, and AI-assisted programs. Microsoft's Copilot AI assistant promises 40% premium pricing for Office applications, while Meta uses AI for content recommendations and ad targeting to overcome previous headwinds. |
Machine Learning ChatGPT Cloud Computing Productivity Advertising |
CloudCloud computing represents a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity being captured by hyperscaler platforms. AWS revenues doubled to $83 billion over three years with $122 billion in long-term commitments, while Microsoft Azure tripled revenues to $56 billion and expanded its OpenAI partnership for AI services. |
Hyperscaler Infrastructure Enterprise Revenue Growth Market Share | |
Alternative Asset ManagersBlackstone and KKR are positioned to capitalize on the $195 trillion private wealth channel and $65 trillion institutional market. Blackstone manages almost $1 trillion in assets and recently closed a record $30.4 billion real estate fund, while KKR doubled assets to half a trillion dollars over three years. |
Private Wealth Institutional Real Estate Asset Growth Fee Income | |
| 2023 Q1 |
AIThe release of OpenAI's GPT-4 represents a historically momentous occasion with implications not yet understood. The model can ace university-level exams and shows extreme improvement rates. Microsoft is integrating GPT-4 into its Office suite, creating opportunities for software leaders to charge premiums while disrupting others' business models. |
GPT-4 OpenAI Microsoft Software Disruption |
Credit StressThe collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse demonstrates financial consequences of rapid monetary tightening. With $350 trillion of global debt and average five-year maturity, $70 trillion needs refinancing annually. Banking stresses feed back to the real economy quickly, as seen in retail spending declines. |
Banking Refinancing SVB Credit Suisse Monetary | |
SemiconductorsInvestment in AMD ahead of multiple coinciding dynamics: new AI accelerator chip cycle, positive margin mix from new products, economic cycle rebound in core business, and synergy acceleration from Xilinx acquisition. US export bans on advanced chips to China reflect strategic positioning. |
AMD Xilinx Accelerator China Export |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2023 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | ABAC | Bank of America | Financials | Banks | Bull | NYSE | Banks, Deposit Flows, financials, Flight-to-quality, Regional banking stress, Tactical Investment, Value, well-capitalized | Login |
| Apr 12, 2023 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI accelerators, Cyclical Recovery, data center, margin expansion, Product cycle, semiconductors, Tactical Investment, Xilinx acquisition | Login |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | BA.L | BAE Systems | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Aerospace, AUKUS, backlog visibility, countercyclical, Defense Contractor, Equity, Geographic Diversification, geopolitical, NATO, Rearmament, UK | Login |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company | Semiconductors | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | advanced nodes, AI, Cloud computing, Equity, geopolitical risk, Monopolist, power efficiency, Pricing power, semiconductors, Taiwan | Login |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | UBER | Uber Technologies Inc | Software - Application | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Agentic AI, autonomous vehicles, Equity, Flywheel, Market expansion, mobility, Multi-sided Platform, network effects, Real World Logistics | Login |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | ICE | Intercontinental Exchange Inc | Financial Data & Stock Exchanges | Capital Markets | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Clearing Houses, countercyclical, Energy Futures, Equity, Financial infrastructure, geopolitical, market volatility, NYSE, risk management, trading volumes | Login |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Fund Letters | Andrew Macken | ALB | Albemarle Corporation | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Batteries, Commodities, energy storage, Lithium, renewables, Supply Shortage | Login |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Fund Letters | Andrew Macken | FND | Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Flooring, Housing, operating leverage, Specialty retail, valuation | Login |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Fund Letters | Andrew Macken | NOW | ServiceNow, Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Agentic, Automation, enterprise, Subscriptions, switching costs, Workflow | Login |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Fund Letters | Andrew Macken | BX | The Blackstone Inc. | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Alternatives, Fees, Fundraising, M&A, Private Credit, Realizations | Login |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Fund Letters | Andrew Macken | KKR | KKR & Co. Inc. | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Alternatives, Carry, Fundraising, M&A, Private Credit, Realizations | Login |
| Jul 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Andrew Macken | FND | Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Stores | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Flywheel, Hard Flooring, Housing, retail, scale | Login |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | FND | Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Home Improvement Retail | Bull | NYSE | Cyclical Recovery, economies of scale, Flooring, home improvement, housing market, market share gains, retailer, Specialty retail, store rollout, supply chain, US | Login |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI chips, Artificial Intelligence, Revenue Growth, semiconductors, Tactical position, technology hardware | Login |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | KD | Kyndryl Holdings Inc | Information Technology | IT Services | Bull | NYSE | Earnings transformation, Enterprise Technology, IT services, Mission-critical systems, Outsourcing, Tactical position | Login |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | MC.PA | LVMH | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Bull | Euronext Paris | Consumer Discretionary, European Equity, Luxury goods, margin expansion, premium brands, Pricing power, Wealth Concentration | Login |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | ABX | Blackstone | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | alternative assets, Asian markets, asset management, Insurance partnerships, network effects, private equity, Scale Advantages, Structural Growth | Login |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | KKR | KKR & Co | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | alternative assets, Asian markets, asset management, Insurance partnerships, network effects, private equity, Scale Advantages, Structural Growth | Login |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | SPGI | S&P Global | Financials | Financial Exchanges & Data | Bull | NYSE | credit ratings, Cyclical Recovery, financial data, Mission-Critical Platform, oligopoly, Pent-up Demand, Refinancing Cycle | Login |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | ^VIX | Visa | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NYSE | B2B payments, Compounding growth, digital payments, Large Addressable Market, network effects, Payments Network, Visa Direct | Login |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | AMZN | Amazon | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, AWS, Cloud computing, e-commerce, growth, SaaS, technology | Login |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | AAPL|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|UNH | Microsoft | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, Azure, Cloud computing, growth, Office 365, SaaS, technology | Login |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | ADI|BDX|FI|FND|HAS|META|MSFT|MSI|ORCL|TMO | Meta Platforms | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, digital advertising, growth, Reels, social media, technology, turnaround | Login |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | ABX | Blackstone | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | alternative assets, asset management, financials, Institutional, private equity, Private Wealth, Real Estate | Login |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Fund Letters | Montaka Global Investments | KKR | KKR & Co | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | alternative assets, asset management, financials, investment portfolio, private equity, Valuation Anomaly, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CRM | Since the start of the recent SaaS selloff – which we explored in detail in Montaka's recent whitepaper – Salesforce's share price has halved. The market is now pricing in something like obsolescence for the world's dominant customer relationship management (CRM) platform. This, in our view, represents a significant investment opportunity. The market's concern is two-fold. First, that AI makes software trivially cheap and easy to build – rendering vendors like Salesforce redundant. Second, that agents don't need software interfaces at all – they can interact directly with data and systems, making seat-based licences obsolete. Both arguments make the same mistake: they treat Salesforce as just a SaaS vendor – when in reality, the business' competitive advantages have very little to do with its code. Salesforce is the trusted layer through which AI can be deployed safely and usefully into the world's enterprises. The company itself has guided growth of 10% per annum until at least FY30. Yet the current valuation effectively prices in revenue growth of roughly 1% per annum into perpetuity. If we look at the enterprise-value-to-gross-profit valuation metric, the stock trades at about 4.5 times. When Cisco bottomed after the dot-com crash, having fallen more than 90%, it troughed at 5 times gross profit. Salesforce begins below that level. Perhaps the starkest metric: Gross profit of Salesforce's already-signed backlog is north of $US50 billion; its enterprise value is $160 billion. That implies a multiple of just three times – and that excludes the rapidly growing agentic consumption layer entirely. The company already has more than 150,000 business customers worldwide – a distribution pipeline through which agentic capability, delivered via Agentforce, Salesforce's agentic AI product suite, can be infused directly into existing workflows safely. More recently, Salesforce has enabled 'headless' access: allowing its customers to combine models with their existing assets (tools, data, etc.) through third-party interfaces such as Microsoft Teams, Zendesk or Claude. Salesforce's Agentic Work Units – discrete tasks completed by agents – have gone parabolic, rising from 14 million in Q1 FY25 to roughly 1,600 million in Q1 FY27, with token consumption growing more than 150% quarter-on-quarter. One multi-billion-dollar food distributor that typically spent $5 million a year with Salesforce has added $2 million in agent spend. It estimates that spend unlocked $15–25 million in productivity, an implied ROI of near 10x. |
| NOW | Declines in ServiceNow, Microsoft, KKR, Salesforce and Meta Platforms were among the largest detractors from portfolio performance over the 12 months. |
| MSFT | Declines in ServiceNow, Microsoft, KKR, Salesforce and Meta Platforms were among the largest detractors from portfolio performance over the 12 months. |
| KKR | Declines in ServiceNow, Microsoft, KKR, Salesforce and Meta Platforms were among the largest detractors from portfolio performance over the 12 months. |
| META | Declines in ServiceNow, Microsoft, KKR, Salesforce and Meta Platforms were among the largest detractors from portfolio performance over the 12 months. |
| GOOGL | Partially offsetting these were gains in Alphabet, MongoDB and TSMC. We funded these investments by trimming TSMC and Alphabet, both of which have run up materially in recent months. |
| MDB | Partially offsetting these were gains in Alphabet, MongoDB and TSMC. |
| TSM | Partially offsetting these were gains in Alphabet, MongoDB and TSMC. We funded these investments by trimming TSMC and Alphabet, both of which have run up materially in recent months. |
| V | We substantially increased our investments in Visa and Mastercard on the basis described above. We see a major mispricing here: as the probability of strong growth increases, valuations have fallen to unusually low levels as the market remains focused on semiconductor stocks. Take Visa and Mastercard, for example. Both are extraordinarily advantaged businesses and have consistently grown annual revenues at double–digit percentage rates for many years. And in our view, strong growth will likely continue – driven by new value–added services attached to their payment networks (related to stablecoins, agentic commerce, fraud detection, and other data services) which are growing at even faster rates. Yet, on Montaka's analysis, the current stock prices of Visa and Mastercard are pricing in future revenue growth of only around 4% per annum – well below what we expect to materialise. This represents a great investment opportunity, in our view. |
| MA | We substantially increased our investments in Visa and Mastercard on the basis described above. We see a major mispricing here: as the probability of strong growth increases, valuations have fallen to unusually low levels as the market remains focused on semiconductor stocks. Take Visa and Mastercard, for example. Both are extraordinarily advantaged businesses and have consistently grown annual revenues at double–digit percentage rates for many years. And in our view, strong growth will likely continue – driven by new value–added services attached to their payment networks (related to stablecoins, agentic commerce, fraud detection, and other data services) which are growing at even faster rates. Yet, on Montaka's analysis, the current stock prices of Visa and Mastercard are pricing in future revenue growth of only around 4% per annum – well below what we expect to materialise. This represents a great investment opportunity, in our view. |
| SPOT | We also exited Spotify after making good money in this opportunity over many years. |
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