| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Myrmikan Research argues that gold, not the dollar, provides the true measure of asset values, with the dollar having lost 58% of its value since October 2023. While bubble assets like bitcoin and tech stocks dominated 2024, gold surged 65% in 2025 and gold miners jumped 155%. The manager contends this marks the beginning of a multi-year bull market driven by the Fed's loss of monetary leverage and the breakdown of the dollar's reserve currency status. Key risks include continued credit decay, rising long-term rates despite Fed cuts, and foreign countries' unwillingness to absorb U.S. monetary flows. The portfolio implications favor gold and gold miners as primary holdings, with silver offering special opportunity due to supply constraints and industrial demand from China's energy transition. Oil and other commodities are expected to rise nominally but underperform gold, preserving mining margins. The outlook remains bullish for precious metals as monetary debasement accelerates and traditional stimulus mechanisms fail.
Gold serves as the ultimate measure of real value, with the dollar having lost 58% of its purchasing power since October 2023, making gold and gold mining stocks the primary beneficiaries of ongoing monetary debasement and the breakdown of the dollar's reserve currency status.
The manager expects gold to continue trading higher with increasing volatility as the Fed remains neutered and credit continues to decay. Gold miners are positioned for a multi-year bull market with expanding margins as gold outpaces input costs. The dollar cannot recover its former status, and the deficit will not be reduced in nominal terms.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15 2026 | 2025 Q4 | MSTR | commodities, Dollar, Geopolitical, gold, inflation, Mining, monetary policy | - | Gold jumped 65% in 2025 and has increased 137% since October 2023, demonstrating its role as pure market money. The manager argues gold is the… |
| Nov 4 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | credit cycles, debasement, gold, inflation, monetary policy | - | The letter argues that modern monetary policy mirrors ancient cycles of currency debasement, credit crises, and state-driven stimulus, implying structurally higher gold prices ahead. Historical… |
| Jul 15 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | alpha, mispricing, Research, risk management, special situations | - | The letter highlights an opportunistic, research-intensive approach focused on idiosyncratic alpha generation. Management targets special situations, misunderstood businesses, and variant perceptions. Risk is managed through… |
| Apr 14 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 14 2025 | 2024 Q4 | MSTR, NVDA | - | - | - |
| Oct 10 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Aug 13 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Feb 15 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Dec 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Sep 18 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| May 12 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
DollarThe U.S. dollar fell more than 9% during 2025, supporting international markets. The dollar was pressured by high starting valuation and mounting concerns about global investor concentration in U.S. assets. Narrowing interest rate differentials may drive further decline. |
Currency International Valuation |
GoldGold reached record highs above $5,000 per ounce but silver's dramatic rally has triggered a sell signal. Historical pattern suggests both metals may enter 2-3 year correction period. Central bank demand remained strong at 863 tonnes for 2025, though China purchases slowed significantly. |
Precious Central Banks ETFs Debasement | |
Gold MinersMultiple gold mining companies delivered strong performance with several high-grade discoveries and resource expansions. Companies like Spanish Mountain Gold, Endurance Gold, and Omai Gold reported significant drill results and resource growth potential. |
Gold Mining Exploration Resources High-grade | |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
OilOil markets disrupted by closure of Straits of Hormuz affecting 20% of global production. Prices surged from $70 to $119.50 before retreating to $90. Market may be tighter than commonly believed despite IEA projections of surplus. Oil represents cheapest major asset class globally, trading at near-record lows relative to gold. |
Crude Brent WTI Hormuz Supply | |
SilverSilver surged 220% since April 2024, generating powerful sell signal for precious metals. Performance mirrors 1979 parabolic blow-off that marked end of gold bull market. Retail demand peaked with reports of long lines at dealers globally before recent 40% decline from highs. |
Precious Parabolic Retail Blow-off | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldGold reached record highs above $5,000 per ounce but silver's dramatic rally has triggered a sell signal. Historical pattern suggests both metals may enter 2-3 year correction period. Central bank demand remained strong at 863 tonnes for 2025, though China purchases slowed significantly. |
Precious Central Banks ETFs Debasement |
| 2025 Q2 |
Alpha |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| MSTR | Our original cost basis is around $17/share. Strategy operates as the leader in pioneering corporate bitcoin strategy. The company holds the largest corporate bitcoin stash (by far). It monetizes this through fixed-income securities like convertible notes and structured debt. The case for MSTR is leveraged bitcoin upside under proven capital allocators, with a steady software business on the side. 2025 was a tough year for MSTR. The stock declined 47.53% thanks to BTC volatility and market rotation away from high-conviction names. Putting the 'treasury company' hype aside, which now includes many MSTR copycats, I still think the core thesis holds. |
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