| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Newport Capital Group's Q2 2026 commentary emphasizes maintaining diversified exposures amid geopolitical uncertainty from Iran tensions, which drove significant oil price volatility and inflation acceleration during the quarter. Global markets rebounded strongly in Q2, with the S&P 500 up 15.2% led by Technology and growth stocks, while oil fell 31.4% on easing tensions. The firm expects U.S. economic growth near the historic 2.0% level with a resilient but frozen job market. The Federal Reserve shifted to a tightening bias under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, forecasting one rate increase by year end, though new task forces may delay action. Strong corporate earnings remain a key positive, with S&P 500 earnings growth expectations near 24.0%, three times the historic average. Key risks include potential earnings disappointments, elevated Large-Cap concentration, geopolitical tensions, and midterm election uncertainty. The firm maintains balanced positioning across growth and value styles, market caps, and regions, viewing value and international equities as relatively attractive. They expect interest rates to remain range-bound and recommend focusing on fixed income yield.
Newport Capital Group advocates maintaining a disciplined, well-diversified investment approach across growth and value styles, market capitalizations, and global regions during a period of geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility driven by Iran tensions, while positioning for continued economic growth near 2.0% and strong corporate earnings.
The firm expects the U.S. economy to grow near its historic 2.0% level in 2026 with a resilient job market and inflation trends levered to energy prices. They expect interest rates to remain range-bound in 2026. Market positives include strong corporate earnings with S&P 500 earnings growth expectations near 24.0%. Key risks include potential earnings disappointments, elevated index concentrations, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainty heading into midterm elections. The firm maintains a balanced, diversified approach across growth and value styles, market caps, and global regions.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18 2026 | 2026 Q2 | - | diversification, earnings, Fed policy, Geopolitical, inflation, international, Market Commentary, value | - | Newport Capital advocates diversified positioning across styles, caps, and regions amid Iran-driven volatility. Q2 saw strong market rebound with S&P 500 up 15.2% on easing tensions and robust earnings. The Fed shifted to tightening bias under new Chairman Warsh. Firm expects 2.0% economic growth, range-bound rates, and continued earnings strength at 24.0% growth. Value and international equities appear relatively attractive versus growth and Large-Cap. |
| May 19 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | diversification, Fed policy, Geopolitical, Iran, Market Commentary, oil, value | - | Newport Capital maintains disciplined diversification as Iranian War drives oil up 77.6% and market volatility. Value outperforms growth with Small-Cap Value +5.0% vs Large-Cap Growth -9.8%. Balanced positioning across styles and regions captures ongoing rotation favoring value and international markets while managing geopolitical uncertainty and elevated growth stock valuations. |
| Feb 5 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 7203.T, 7974.T, AAPL, AMZN, AZN, BHP.AX, FMG.AX, GOOGL, HD, IBE.MC, LLY, META, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, RHM.DE, RIO.AX, ROG.SW, SPOT, XRO.AX | AI, earnings, equities, fixed income, Global Markets, inflation, rates | - | Global markets posted modest Q4 gains driven by solid earnings and Fed rate cuts, with AI stocks delivering strong results despite valuation concerns. Health care led sector performance while emerging markets advanced despite Chinese weakness. Central banks remain accommodative with Fed likely to cut further in 2026, supporting continued market resilience amid mixed economic signals. |
| Oct 31 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | diversification, Fed policy, inflation, international, Market Rotation, rates, value | - | Newport Capital Group maintains a balanced, diversified approach across asset classes and geographies, positioning for market support from Fed rate cuts and solid earnings while managing policy uncertainty risks. The firm emphasizes staying committed to long-term investing principles amid significant market rotation favoring international and small-cap value stocks. |
| Jul 31 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | diversification, Dollar, Fed, inflation, international, rates, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | Newport Capital Group navigated Q2 2025 tariff volatility through diversified positioning across asset classes and geographies. Despite policy uncertainty driving market swings, international outperformance and dollar weakness validated their balanced approach. With the Fed maintaining restrictive policy and tariff-driven inflation risks ahead, they emphasize long-term discipline over market timing while positioning for potential stimulus catalysts. |
| May 1 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Economic Growth, Federal Reserve, Market Commentary, tariffs, Trade Policy, volatility | - | Newport Capital Group navigates heightened market volatility from Trump's tariff announcements that could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.50-1.50% and push inflation above 3.0%. Despite correction territory markets and trade war fears, the firm maintains diversified positioning across asset classes and geographies, expecting volatility to persist until policy clarity emerges while remaining positioned for long-term recovery. |
| Jan 30 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | AI, growth, inflation, international, rates, technology, value | - | Newport Capital Group expects above-trend U.S. growth in 2025 while maintaining balanced positioning between growth and value. They anticipate market performance broadening beyond AI-driven large caps, with attractive opportunities in mid and small caps. Key risks include inflation persistence and Fed policy uncertainty, but the firm advocates long-term diversified investing over market timing. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
IranGeopolitical tensions with Iran drove oil price volatility in Q2 2026, with crude oil falling 31.4% on easing tensions later in the quarter. The Iran War caused inflation acceleration through higher energy prices. The outcome of tensions in the Middle East remains unclear and creates market uncertainty. |
Iran Oil Geopolitical Energy Inflation |
InflationInflation accelerated in Q2 due to higher energy prices from the Iran War. Core PCE has been above the Fed's 2.0% target for five years. The firm expects inflation to moderate as gasoline prices decline with easing Iran tensions, though elevated energy prices remain a key driver. |
Inflation Energy PCE Fed | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve held rates steady through four meetings in 2026 but shifted to a tightening bias, forecasting one 25 basis point increase by year end. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh announced five task forces that may delay the next rate move. The firm expects rates to remain range-bound in 2026. |
Rates Fed Monetary Policy | |
AIStrong corporate earnings have supported capital spending, especially for companies levered to artificial intelligence. AI-related spending is highlighted as a driver of corporate investment activity in the current environment. |
AI Capital Spending Earnings | |
EarningsCorporate earnings remained strong and have increased faster than prices, improving market multiples year to date. S&P 500 earnings growth expectations for the full year are near 24.0%, three times the historic average, boosting margins to record highs for many companies. Strong earnings are cited as a key market positive. |
Earnings Margins Corporate | |
ValueValue stocks outperformed growth stocks in the first half of 2026. The firm views value and mid and small cap stocks as relatively attractive versus growth and larger capitalization stocks. They maintain balanced equity exposures across growth and value styles. |
Value Growth Market Cap | |
| 2026 Q1 |
OilOil prices jumped 77.6% in Q1 due to the Iranian War choking global supplies. Higher energy prices are expected to slow economic growth, with every $10 oil increase creating a 0.1% GDP drag. Sustained elevated energy costs will drag global economic growth. |
Oil Energy Iran Geopolitical Inflation |
GeopoliticalThe Iranian War created significant market uncertainty and volatility. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a key market risk with unknown outcomes. The conflict has inflationary pressures that will dictate Fed policy moves. |
Iran War Geopolitical Middle East Uncertainty | |
ValueValue stocks outperformed growth stocks across market caps in Q1, with Small-Cap Value up 5.0% while Large-Cap Growth fell 9.8%. Value and mid- and small-cap stocks remain relatively attractive versus growth and larger capitalization stocks. |
Value Growth Small Cap Outperformance Rotation | |
AIA research piece on AI implications increased market volatility in February. Business investment in artificial intelligence contributed to economic growth in 2025. AI remains a driver of business investment but created market uncertainty. |
AI Artificial Intelligence Investment Volatility Technology | |
| 2025 Q4 |
Industrial GasesSOL Group operates one of Europe's leading industrial gas franchises serving 50k customers across 32 countries, with a network of 39 air-separation units and 50+ filling plants that took almost a century to assemble. The business benefits from high switching costs, local oligopolies due to transport economics, and regulatory barriers that make replication extremely difficult. |
Industrial Gases Infrastructure Oligopoly Barriers |
HealthcareVivisol provides home respiratory therapy to 750k patients across Europe, growing at 13% CAGR over 14 years driven by aging demographics and healthcare systems moving chronic care from hospitals to homes. The business has 80% recurring revenues with 95%+ contract renewal rates and high switching costs for patients. |
Healthcare Demographics Home Care Recurring | |
AIManager views AI as creating significant disruption risk for software businesses and has tilted toward businesses unlikely to see their unit economics negatively affected by AI over the next decades. Infrastructure and business services players are preferred over software for their easier-to-forecast survival. |
AI Disruption Software Infrastructure | |
| 2025 Q3 |
RatesThe Federal Reserve reduced its target federal funds rate to 4.0%-4.25% in September, the first cut since December 2024. The Fed forecasts two additional 25bp cuts this year and one next year, with terminal rate expected at 3.0%-3.25% by mid-next year. Interest rate volatility continued as markets digested policy uncertainty and inflation concerns. |
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Terminal Rate Yield Curve Monetary Policy |
InflationInflation continued to move higher in Q3 and remained above the Fed's 2.0% target. Tariffs represent a one-time step up in prices that would boost inflation in the short term, pushing it back above 3.0%. The tariff rate on U.S. imports may approach 20.0% compared to 2.4% last year. |
Tariffs Price Pressures Fed Target Import Costs Consumer Prices | |
Trade PolicyTariffs significantly impacted economic data and inflation outlook. The early April tariff announcement led to decreased imports and affected GDP growth. Pre-tariff inventories continued to be depleted, with consumers yet to feel the full effect. Markets initially digested potential tariff rates at or above 30.0%. |
Tariffs Import Duties Trade War Economic Impact Policy Uncertainty | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyTariffs represent a significant market driver with President Trump's April tariff announcement causing market selloff before recovery when implementation was delayed. Tariffs are expected to boost inflation above 3% in the short term, with import tariff rates potentially reaching 15% versus 2.4% last year. |
Tariffs Import Inflation Policy Implementation |
DollarThe U.S. dollar weakened 7% in Q2, marking the weakest first half since 1973. This weakness served as a tailwind for international equity returns and benefited emerging markets performance. |
DXY Weakness International Emerging Currency | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve maintained rates at 4.25-4.50% range with forecast for two 25bp cuts this year. Interest rate volatility continued with yield curve steepening on fiscal concerns including Moody's credit downgrade. |
Federal Reserve Cuts Volatility Yield Curve Treasury | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump announced significant tariff increases including a baseline 10% on all imports plus reciprocal tariffs based on trade deficits, potentially reaching 25% from 2.4% previously. China responded with retaliatory tariffs, sparking global trade war fears. A 90-day pause was announced after market volatility, but uncertainty regarding global economic growth has intensified. |
Tariffs Trade War China Reciprocal Economic Growth |
VolatilityGlobal capital markets experienced intensified volatility following tariff announcements, with equity markets selling off significantly before recovering on the largest one-day gain since the Great Financial Crisis. Markets remain in correction territory from February highs. Fixed income markets also experienced volatility leading to policy reversals. |
Market Volatility Correction Equity Markets Fixed Income Uncertainty | |
RatesU.S. interest rates initially declined following tariff announcements as markets priced in economic uncertainty and potential Fed rate cuts, then reversed higher amid fixed income volatility. The Fed maintained rates at 4.25-4.50% while markets now expect three to four rate cuts later this year following the tariff announcement. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Rate Cuts Treasury Yields Monetary Policy | |
| 2024 Q4 |
RatesFed lowered rates by 25 bps in November and December to 4.25-4.50% range, following September's 50 bps cut. Fed guidance updated to reflect two 25 bps cuts in 2025, down from four cuts in September forecast. Interest rate volatility continued as markets digested Fed policy outlook. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Rate Cuts Volatility |
InflationInflation trends accelerated in Q4 with December CPI up 2.9% year-over-year versus 2.4% in September. Inflation remains sticky driven by higher housing rental and car insurance costs. Manager focused on potential inflationary pressures from Trump's tariff policies. |
Consumer Price Index Housing Tariffs Policy Impact Wage Growth | |
AIMagnificent Seven stocks linked to artificial intelligence drove Large Cap Growth performance in 2024. AI-related stocks were key drivers of the Technology sector's leadership and overall market performance for the year. |
Magnificent Seven Technology Large Cap Growth Performance Market Leadership |
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