| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 16.14% | 2.69% | 2.69% |
Night Watch Investment Management delivered 2.69% net returns in Q1 2026 despite significant market volatility driven by AI disruption fears and the Iran war. The fund's strategy of owning counter-cyclical businesses proved effective, with strong performance from Brookdale senior living facilities, AAR Corp aerospace maintenance services, and Marex futures clearing. Brookdale benefited from demographic tailwinds as baby boomers turn 80, while AAR gained from aging aircraft fleets and growing defense contracts representing 30% of business. Marex, the largest position at 14.5%, thrives on market volatility with earnings growing 7-fold over five years. The manager sold Copa Airlines due to fuel exposure during the Iran conflict. The portfolio maintains 28 positions across global markets with 71% insider ownership and catalyst identification in most holdings. Rather than predicting geopolitical outcomes, the fund positions in companies that can withstand uncertainty while potentially benefiting from volatility and defense spending increases.
Night Watch focuses on catalyst-driven value investing in unique, globally diversified companies with insider ownership, positioning the portfolio with counter-cyclical businesses that can benefit from geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility.
The manager expects continued uncertainty around geopolitical events and does not attempt to predict outcomes. Instead, the portfolio is positioned with companies that can withstand market volatility, with some holdings like AAR and Marex potentially benefiting from defense spending increases and market volatility respectively.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1 2026 | 2026 Q1 | AIR, BKD, CPA, MRX.L | catalysts, Counter-cyclical, defense, Geopolitical, global, value, volatility |
BKD AIR MRX.L CPA |
Night Watch delivered 2.69% in volatile Q1 2026 by owning counter-cyclical businesses that benefit from uncertainty. Strong performance from Brookdale senior living, AAR aerospace maintenance, and Marex futures clearing. Portfolio positioned to withstand geopolitical risks while benefiting from demographic trends, defense spending, and market volatility rather than trying to time unpredictable events. |
| Jan 5 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ALLFG, DAVA, DSGR, HAYPP, MRX, WDC | catalysts, global, insider ownership, Rerating, value |
MRX DAVA |
Night Watch delivered strong 2025 performance through catalyst-driven value investing, with Haypp and Marex as top contributors. The fund maintains defensive positioning given US economic headwinds while building international exposure in Brazil and Japan. They await clearer consumer recovery signals before increasing cyclical exposure, focusing on aerospace aftermarket, defensive sectors, and unique opportunities with strong insider ownership and rerating catalysts. |
| Oct 2 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 5842.T, AIR, BKD, BX, DSGR, ENDV.L, GOGO, HAYP.ST, KKR, MRX.L, NE, STX, TDW, VAL, WDC, XFAB.DE | AI, catalysts, Europe, global, Japan, private equity, small caps, value |
BKD US WDC US 5842 JP |
Night Watch delivered strong Q3 performance of 4.28% through catalyst-driven value investing but grows increasingly cautious on US markets due to deteriorating fundamentals and regulatory interference. The fund is pivoting toward international opportunities, particularly in Europe and Asia, while adding defensive healthcare positions and maintaining cash discipline around free cash flow valuations. |
| Jul 1 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 1126.HK, AAR, CWH, HAYPP.ST, MRX.L, RELY, XFAB.PA | catalysts, E-Commerce, global, semiconductors, tariffs, value, volatility |
RELY CWH MRX LN 1126 HK MRX.L HAYPP.ST XFAB.PA 1126.HK |
Night Watch delivered 23.31% Q2 returns through catalyst-driven value investing in unique global opportunities. Strong performance from Haypp, X-FAB, and Marex offset tariff-related repositioning. Counter-cyclical positioning and insider-owned companies with earnings inflections drive the strategy. Rich pipeline of new opportunities supports continued outperformance expectations. |
| Apr 2 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 1405.HK, AIR, ALLFG.AS, BDL, COOP, DKNG, DSGR, HAYPP.ST, MXNS.L, UAL, XFAB.DE | catalysts, diversification, global, small cap, value | 1405.HK | Night Watch's global value strategy declined 2.11% in Q1 amid market volatility but benefited from international diversification. The fund exited GDP-sensitive positions due to Trump policy uncertainty while adding to defensive growth names. Geographic diversification across expensive US markets, recovering European markets, and cheap Chinese markets undergoing economic transition provides downside protection and upside optionality. |
| Jan 2 2025 | 2024 Q4 | 1126.HK, 2318.HK, AER, AL, ALLFG.AS, AMRK, ATRO, DSGR, JOE, MELE.BR, MRX.L, RELY, UAL, VAL, XFAB.PA | aerospace, catalysts, China, energy, Europe, global, Onshoring, value | - | Night Watch delivered 10.30% in 2024 through catalyst-driven global value investing across eight themes. Despite offshore energy headwinds, the fund successfully pivoted within aerospace and expanded into European quality names and Chinese stimulus plays. Strong insider alignment (66% of positions) and unique holdings provide differentiated exposure to long-term trends including onshoring and energy transition. |
| Oct 1 2024 | 2024 Q3 | 1126.HK, 2318.HK, ATRO, BC, BLDR, DSGR, JOE, LEG, SEG, VAL, XFAB.PA | Automotive, catalysts, energy, global, Offshore, semiconductors, value | XFAB.PA | Night Watch delivered 7.40% in Q3 through concentrated global value investing with catalyst focus. Portfolio positioned for semiconductor cycle recovery via X-FAB and offshore energy through Valaris despite near-term headwinds. Added opportunistic positions in Seaport Entertainment spinoff and Leggett & Platt following dividend cut. Strong insider ownership across holdings provides alignment with management interests. |
| Jul 1 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ASML, ATRO, BC, CWH, DSGR, JOE, NE, NVO, TDW, VAL | aerospace, consumer, energy, Europe, Housing, Offshore Drilling, value | VAL | Night Watch runs a concentrated global value strategy with Valaris as the largest holding, positioned to benefit from offshore drilling recovery. The fund maintains exposure to cyclical consumer and housing names near trough valuations while reducing aerospace risk. European positioning provides diversification opportunities from post-election selloffs and competitive labor advantages. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
DefenseAAR Corp provides after-market maintenance services for airplanes and benefits from aging fleet dynamics. Government defense contracts now represent 30% of their business and are growing at 50% rate. The company benefits from multi-year industry tailwinds and any potential war is mildly beneficial to their earnings. |
Defense Spending Aerospace Government Contracts Military Maintenance |
VolatilityMarex clears futures on behalf of clients and benefits enormously from current market volatility. When trading activity in oil, precious metals, or financial products picks up, Marex makes more money. The company has grown earnings 7-fold over the last 5 years despite trading at 8-9x P/E versus 13-14x for closest peer StoneX. |
Capital Markets Volatility Futures Trading Financial Infrastructure | |
AerospaceAAR Corp benefits from an aging fleet of airplanes caused by Boeing's and Airbus' inability to satisfy industry demand. The company is transforming from low value add heavy maintenance of airframes to higher margin component repair and distribution services. This represents a multi-year industry tailwind combined with company transformation. |
Aerospace Aircraft Maintenance Component Repair Aviation Services Fleet Aging | |
| 2025 Q4 |
ValueNight Watch manages a global value strategy that differentiates on catalyst-driven investments, insider ownership, and unique names. They seek value companies with identifiable catalysts for rerating and aim to provide diversification from typical wealth management portfolios. |
Catalyst Rerating Insider Ownership |
AerospaceThe fund maintains large exposure to the aerospace aftermarket given that the global fleet of airplanes is aging and demand for maintenance will continue to grow. AAR Corp is among their largest positions at 8.6%. |
Aftermarket Maintenance Fleet | |
SemiconductorsWestern Digital Corp benefited from a large memory shortage driven by AI data center investments, with shares up over 200% since purchase. However, the manager is scaling down given historically short and violent memory cycles. |
Memory AI Data Centers Cycles | |
HousingThe housing basket has shifted to niche sectors such as senior living facilities and companies that benefit from a rebound in existing home sales. St Joe is a top 5 position at 6.4% weight. |
Senior Living Home Sales | |
| 2025 Q3 |
ValueNight Watch manages a global value strategy focused on catalyst-driven opportunities with insider ownership and unique names. The fund seeks value companies with identifiable catalysts for rerating, including industry tailwinds or company-specific events. They aim to differentiate from typical value strategies through unique portfolio holdings with little overlap to wealth management portfolios. |
Catalyst Rerating Insider ownership Unique names Differentiation |
AIThe fund initiated positions in tech companies benefiting from AI-related spending, including Western Digital Corp as a pure play on hard disk drives. They believe AI infrastructure spending will prove cyclical and settle below current levels, limiting involvement to outliers where the market was late to recognize positive earnings impact. |
Infrastructure Data centers Storage Cyclical Earnings | |
JapanNight Watch initiated their first Japanese position in Integral KK, a private equity manager. They highlight massive changes in Japanese corporate governance driven by Tokyo Stock Exchange requirements. Japanese Private Equity offers advantages including lower acquisition multiples, greater operational improvement opportunities, and cheap debt compared to US and Europe. |
Corporate governance Private equity Acquisition multiples Operational improvement Tokyo Stock Exchange | |
Private CreditThe fund invested in Integral KK, a Japanese private equity manager similar to Blackstone or KKR that charges 2%/20% fees. Integral raised twice as much capital for their 5th flagship fund, growing Assets under Management by 135% overnight. The business model has historically been more lucrative for PE managers versus investing in PE funds directly. |
Asset management Fee structure Fund raising Assets under management Performance fees | |
Senior CareNight Watch reinitiated a position in Brookdale Senior Living, citing strong fundamentals as baby boomers turn 80+ starting next year. The industry overbuilt in 2017, was hit by Covid and nursing shortages, but construction has halted while demand is about to increase. An activist shareholder successfully replaced management, giving confidence to re-enter the position. |
Demographics Baby boomers Occupancy Management change Activist | |
| 2025 Q2 |
SemiconductorsX-FAB Silicon Foundries manufactures analog semiconductors for automotive, industrial and medical applications. The company is recovering from automotive destocking cycle and has completed $1B capex program that should materially add to earnings in 2026. Management owns 25% and has been buying shares. |
Automotive Analog Foundries Capex Recovery |
E-commerceHaypp operates the largest e-commerce platform for nicotine pouches with a defensible moat due to advertising restrictions. The company benefits from rapid growth in new markets like the US and shift to online purchasing, trading at attractive 10x 2026 EV/EBITDA. |
Nicotine Platform Moat Growth Regulation | |
Trade PolicyTrump Administration implemented tariffs on all imports in April, freezing global trade before reversing course. The fund repositioned based on tariff impacts, selling Remitly due to remittance tax exposure and adding to Camping World which benefits from RV tax deductibility. |
Tariffs Remittance Tax Positioning Legislation | |
Capital MarketsMarex operates as a Futures Commission Merchant benefiting from industry consolidation and volatility. The company outperforms during high volatility periods through increased volumes, wider spreads, and higher margin interest income, making it attractive during market panic. |
FCM Volatility Consolidation Futures Margins | |
| 2025 Q1 |
ValueNight Watch manages a global value strategy focused on companies with identifiable catalysts for rerating, insider ownership, and unique names that differentiate from typical wealth management portfolios. The fund seeks value companies trading at reasonable valuations with improving businesses and good management teams. |
Catalyst Rerating Insider ownership Unique names Reasonable valuations |
ChinaChina has undergone a major economic transition from construction-driven growth to exports of EVs and high-speed trains. The economy has bottomed after 5 years of property deflation, with government stimulus measures introduced since October 2024. The fund focuses on Chinese consumer sector and companies returning capital to shareholders. |
Economic transition Consumer spending Government stimulus Capital returns Bottomed | |
EuropeEuropean markets appreciated as Germany realized fiscal discipline held back economic growth since the Great Financial Crisis. Increased defense spending plans support GDP growth. The fund focuses on entrepreneurial companies with clear strategies, avoiding inefficient conglomerates, preferring management teams with aligned interests. |
Fiscal spending Defense spending Entrepreneurial Management alignment Avoid conglomerates | |
E-commerceHaypp operates as the dominant e-commerce platform for nicotine pouches like Zyn. Despite regulatory headwinds in Q4, Haypp reported its strongest quarter ever, benefiting from a more diverse customer base and new competing products to Zyn entering the market. |
Nicotine pouches Regulatory headwinds Diverse customer base Market dominance Profitability improvement | |
| 2024 Q4 |
EnergyOffshore energy exposure was the largest detractor in 2024, but the thesis remains unchanged. The move from oil & gas production in Western countries to offshore regions like Brazil and Western Africa creates supply/demand mismatch. Day rates for floating rigs have increased from $200k to $500k, though H2 2024 saw a pause due to shortages in subsea equipment and FPSOs. |
Offshore Drilling Oil Valaris Day Rates Supply Chain |
AerospaceBoeing and Airbus production challenges created opportunities in the supply chain initially, then shifted focus to airplane ownership. Boeing's safety incidents and union strikes slowed production while maintaining supplier orders, building inventories. The team pivoted from supply chain to United Airlines, betting on capacity constraints improving margins. |
Airlines Boeing Airbus Aircraft Leasing Capacity | |
EuropeExtreme bearishness on European economy allows buying quality European businesses at value prices. Despite negative outlook on Europe's anti-capitalist direction, European skilled labor is competitive given weak euro. Focus on exporters with labor as primary input cost, including automotive semiconductors and fund distribution platforms. |
European Union Quality Value Semiconductors Euro | |
ChinaOutlook changed in September 2024 when China indicated intent to stimulate economy and stop stock market decline. Government actively stimulating share repurchases shows boosting stock market has become national priority. Expanded Chinese holdings focusing on names benefiting from higher consumer spending, following Japan's shareholder-friendly reform model. |
China Stimulus Buybacks Consumer Finance Government Policy | |
OnshoringLong-term trend of reshoring activities from Asia to USA driven by low energy prices and tariffs. Industrial activity declined due to slowing economy and destocking cycle, but trend may revive under President Trump. Preferred exposure through Distribution Solutions Group, co-investing alongside CEO who owns 77% through family office. |
Onshoring Industrial Policy Distribution Trump Tariffs | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Semiconductor CycleX-FAB is positioned to benefit from the expected bottoming of the semiconductor cycle after 4-6 quarters of downturn. Order intake has turned sharply higher since Q1 with book-to-bill of 1.2x in both quarters. The automotive sector is expected to return to growth in Q4 with industrial and medical recovering during 2025. |
Automotive Foundries Analog Semiconductors Cyclical Recovery Order Intake |
Offshore DrillingValaris operates in offshore energy where day rates rose from $200k to $500k per day over 3 years due to strong demand. However, supply chain bottlenecks in FPSO units and subsea equipment are expected to cause demand to flatline for 2-4 quarters until addressed. |
Energy Day Rates Supply Chain FPSO Subsea | |
OnshoringEuropean exporters with labor as a large input cost are becoming more competitive due to high energy prices weakening the euro, creating what the manager calls Reverse Dutch Disease. This benefits companies like X-FAB with skilled European labor becoming more cost-competitive. |
Europe Labor Costs Currency Manufacturing Competitiveness | |
Electric VehiclesThe number of semiconductor chips per car is growing 14-16% annually through 2030 with modern cars containing 1000-3000 chips. Despite EV sales decline in Europe and US, this is offset by growing EV production in China and hybrid cars requiring similar chip content. |
Automotive Semiconductors China Hybrid Content Growth | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Offshore DrillingValaris is the largest offshore drilling company globally, positioned to benefit from growing offshore oil demand in Brazil and Western Africa. Day rates have risen from $200k to $500k per day as the market has tightened, with the company expected to generate $1.65B in free cash flow at current rates. |
Offshore Drilling Oil Valaris Day Rates |
HousingThe fund maintains exposure to housing-related companies despite rate cut delays and sector selloffs in Q2. The manager believes the sector is closer to a bottom than peak and continues to build positions when the Fed indicated fewer rate cuts than expected. |
Housing Rates Consumer Cyclical Bottom | |
ConsumerConsumer names have been in a downturn for 1-2 years and are viewed as closer to bottom than peak. The fund plays this theme through Brunswick and Camping World Holdings, which have gained market share to offset cyclical decline, buying category winners at low multiples of trough earnings. |
Consumer Cyclical Market Share Trough Brunswick | |
AerospaceThe fund reduced aerospace exposure by selling Montana Aerospace due to Boeing and Airbus production target misses. While airplane production should continue ramping until 2030, Boeing's inventory buildup creates downside risk if 737 Max production doesn't ramp as expected. |
Aerospace Boeing Production Inventory Risk | |
EuropeEuropean stocks sold off after parliament elections, but the manager believes this creates company-specific opportunities. Europe benefits from Inverse Dutch Disease with cheap skilled labor making companies like ASML and Novo Nordisk competitive globally while paying wages in euros. |
Europe Elections Labor Competitiveness ASML |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Fund Letters | Night Watch Investment Management | BKD | Brookdale Senior Living Inc. | Medical Care Facilities | Health Care REITs | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Activist Catalyst, Baby Boomers, Demographics, healthcare, Management Change, Real Estate, Senior Living, Supply Shortage | Login |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Fund Letters | Night Watch Investment Management | AIR | AAR Corp. | Aerospace & Defense | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Aerospace, aftermarket services, Aging Fleet, Aircraft Maintenance, business transformation, Component Repair, defense contracts | Login |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Fund Letters | Night Watch Investment Management | MRX.L | Marex Group plc | Other | Investment Banking & Brokerage | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Commodities, Counter-cyclical, Financial infrastructure, Futures Clearing, market volatility, multi-bagger, valuation discount | Login |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Fund Letters | Night Watch Investment Management | CPA | Copa Holdings S.A. | Airlines | Airlines | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | Airlines, Fuel Exposure, geopolitical risk, Latin America, oil prices, Travel Normalization, Venezuela | Login |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Roderick van Zuylen | MRX | Marex Group plc | Financials | Capital Markets | Bull | NASDAQ | Brokerage, Derivatives, resilience, ROE, valuation | Login |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Roderick van Zuylen | DAVA | Endava plc | Information Technology | IT Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, Itservices, Margins, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Roderick van Zuylen | BKD US | Brookdale Senior Living Inc. | Health Care | Senior Housing | Bull | NYSE | Activism, aging, Demographics, healthcare, Occupancy, Real Estate, turnaround | Login |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Roderick van Zuylen | WDC US | Western Digital Corp. | Information Technology | Data Storage | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, data centers, duopoly, Margin recovery, semiconductors, spin-off, Storage | Login |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Roderick van Zuylen | 5842 JP | Integral KK | Financials | Private Equity | Bull | NYSE | AUM growth, Governance, Japan, private equity, shareholder alignment, Transparency, valuation | Login |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Night Watch Investment Management | 1126.HK | Dream International | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Products | Neutral | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | collectibles, Cost advantage, Disney, dividend yield, Funko, Hong Kong, net cash, Toy Manufacturing, Value, Vietnam | Login |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Roderick van Zuylen | RELY | Remitly Global, Inc. | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NASDAQ | Fintech, Immigration, Regulation, Remittances, Taxation | Login |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Roderick van Zuylen | CWH | Camping World Holdings, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Stores | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | consumer, Cyclicals, retail, RVs, Taxation | Login |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Night Watch Investment Management | HAYPP.ST | Haypp | Consumer Staples | Tobacco | Bull | Nasdaq Stockholm | consumer staples, Data Insights, e-commerce, growth, Moat, Nicotine pouches, Regulatory Moat, Sweden, Tobacco Alternatives | Login |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Roderick van Zuylen | MRX LN | Marex Group plc | Financials | Capital Markets | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Clearing, Commodities, Derivatives, Interest, Volatility | Login |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Roderick van Zuylen | 1126 HK | Dream International, Ltd. | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Products | Neutral | New York Stock Exchange | manufacturing, tariffs, Toys, valuation, Vietnam | Login |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Night Watch Investment Management | MRX.L | Marex | Financials | Capital Markets | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Capital markets, Commodities Trading, Counter-cyclical, energy, FCM, Futures Commission Merchant, FX Futures, market maker, Volatility | Login |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Night Watch Investment Management | XFAB.PA | X-FAB Silicon Foundries | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | Euronext Paris | Analog Semiconductors, automotive, Belgium, CapEx cycle, Cyclical Recovery, Foundry, insider buying, small-cap, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Fund Letters | Night Watch Investment Management | 1405.HK | DPC Dash | Consumer Discretionary | Restaurants | Bull | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | China, Consumer Discretionary, expansion, franchise, growth, Hong Kong, Pizza, Restaurant, retail, ROIC | Login |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Night Watch Investment Management | XFAB.PA | X-FAB Silicon Foundries | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | Euronext Paris | Analog Foundry, automotive, capacity expansion, Cyclical, Equity, Europe, EV Components, insider ownership, semiconductors, Value | Login |
| Jul 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Night Watch Investment Management | VAL | Valaris | Energy | Oil & Gas Drilling | Bull | NYSE | Cyclical Recovery, Day-rates, energy, Free Cash Flow, offshore drilling, Oil & Gas, Replacement Cost, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| BKD | We booked very strong performance on our position in Brookdale (BKD), an operator of senior living facilities. We have previously spoken about a looming shortage in senior living facilities. As the first baby boomers are turning 80-years old in 2026, there have been no new construction starts since 2017 caused by initial oversupply, covid and a nursing shortage, and we now expect to have a favorable supply/demand dynamic until at least 2030. That catalyst came in late 2025, when an activist investor pushed for management change (a KEDM flag), and this management made it clear they were going to maximize occupancy of their facilities and dispose of underperforming assets (another KEDM flag). This ended up being the catalyst the company needed, with shares up 75% since our purchase in September of 2025. |
| AIR | AAR Corp (AIR) was another strong performer which, fortunately, was an oversized (~9%) position for us. AAR provides after-market maintenance services for airplanes. We believe this company is benefitting from an aging fleet of airplanes, caused by Boeing's and Airbus' inability to satisfy industry demand. At the same time the company is making a transformation from low value add heavy maintenance of airframes, to higher margin component repair and distribution services. During the last quarter reported at the end of March, they also noted that government defense contracts are now 30% of the total business, currently growing at a 50% rate. In other words, we believe this company benefits from a multi-year industry tailwind and a company transformation, and any potential war is mildly beneficial to their earnings. |
| MRX.L | Our largest position remains Marex (MRX), which is a company that benefits enormously from the current market volatility. Marex clears futures on behalf of their clients and when trading activity in oil, precious metals, or any other kind of financial products picks up, Marex makes more money. Contrary to voice brokerage, their futures clearing business is more akin to financial infrastructure, with a defensible moat and strong market share gains. The company has grown their earnings 7-fold over the last 5 years. Despite their very strong growth drivers, the company still trades at 8-9x P/E, versus 13-14x for their closest peer StoneX. We think they will be able to continue to grow earnings at 30%+ per year, with some rerating potential on top, giving us multi-bagger upside on this name. At 14.5%, this position is slightly larger than what you'd usually see from us, but the upside here is too compelling and management's execution has been excellent. |
| CPA | Not every position we owned at the start of the Iran war was immune to the level of geopolitical risk. For instance, we had to sell out of our position in Copa (CPA), which operates Panama airlines. Panama Airlines is the main connector between North and South America and a strong beneficiary of a potential normalization of travel to Venezuela. They also don't hedge their fuel exposure, and a potential normalization of Venezuelan oil production would have been very accretive to their earnings. We briefly made money on this following Maduro's capture, but following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz we had to change our oil outlook and we quickly pivoted, giving up most of our gains. |
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