| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Ninepoint's mid-year 2026 outlook highlights how markets have navigated significant geopolitical disruption while delivering positive returns driven by exceptional earnings growth. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed 13-14 million barrels per day of oil supply, creating record low global inventories and driving inflation back above 4%, yet equity markets remained resilient as AI and energy sectors drove corporate earnings. Energy equities are valued at $65 WTI despite an expected $80 floor price, offering substantial upside as producers generate significant free cash flow. The AI spending boom is transitioning from infrastructure to monetization, with cloud backlog crossing $2 trillion and accounting for 70% of S&P 500 earnings growth. Critical minerals benefit from both commodity strength and strategic priority status, while NATO's infrastructure commitment translates to $800 billion in incremental spending by 2035. Digital assets are maturing into financial infrastructure, with stablecoins exceeding $300 billion and tokenization surpassing $30 billion. Key risks include persistent inflation forcing Fed rate hikes, energy supply disruptions, and elevated corporate credit spreads amid unprecedented issuance. Portfolio positioning emphasizes low duration in fixed income, energy producer exposure, infrastructure beneficiaries, and selective crypto allocation across the full technology stack.
Despite geopolitical uncertainty and the Middle East conflict driving energy prices higher and inflation back into focus, equity markets have remained resilient in the first half of 2026, supported by exceptional earnings growth from the AI investment cycle and energy sector strength. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a fundamental tightening in oil markets with record low inventories, while energy equities remain undervalued relative to the cash flows they will generate at an $80 oil price floor. Simultaneously, AI spending is transitioning from infrastructure buildout to genuine revenue monetization, with cloud backlog crossing $2 trillion and driving 70% of S&P 500 earnings growth. Critical minerals including uranium, gold, and silver benefit from both commodity cycles and emerging strategic priority status, while sovereignty over infrastructure is driving an $800 billion incremental spending wave through 2035. The digital asset ecosystem is maturing from speculative technology into financial infrastructure, with stablecoins and tokenization scaling rapidly even as prices lag adoption.
The second half of 2026 will be shaped by the duration and resolution of the Middle East conflict, which will determine whether central banks must tighten policy or can remain on hold. Energy prices are expected to remain elevated with an $80 floor for oil becoming the norm once the Strait reopens, benefiting producers while creating inflation friction across the economy. The AI investment cycle continues to drive exceptional earnings growth as spending transitions from infrastructure to monetization, with cloud backlog and contracted revenue supporting continued performance. Infrastructure spending is entering a multi-year growth phase driven by electrification demands and sovereign security priorities. Despite near-term volatility, the fundamental drivers across energy, technology, critical minerals, and digital assets remain intact and positioned for long-term opportunity.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7 2026 | 2026 Q2 | - | AI, crypto, energy, gold, inflation, infrastructure, rates, uranium | - | Markets delivered positive first-half returns despite Middle East conflict and inflation resurgence, driven by exceptional earnings from AI monetization and energy sector strength. Energy equities remain undervalued at $65 WTI versus $80 floor expectations. AI cloud backlog crossed $2 trillion, driving 70% of S&P earnings growth. Critical minerals and infrastructure benefit from strategic priority shift. Digital assets mature into financial infrastructure with stablecoins exceeding $300 billion. Inflation and rate risks persist but fundamentals favor continued opportunity. |
| May 28 2026 | 2026 Q1 | GOOGL | credit, energy, fixed income, geopolitics, inflation, rates | - | Ninepoint maintains defensive fixed income positioning amid Middle East energy crisis driving inflation and potential Fed rate hikes. Record corporate bond issuance from AI companies pressures credit spreads. The team uses low duration and derivatives to navigate volatility while maintaining 5-6% portfolio yields through selective security sourcing. |
| Jan 18 2026 | 2025 Q4 | COIN, FIGR, SHOP.TO | AI, crypto, Electrification, energy, fixed income, gold, infrastructure, Natural Gas | - | Ninepoint sees 2026 as opportunity-rich despite central bank uncertainty, with compelling themes including natural gas demand surge from AI-driven electrification, gold's continued strategic asset momentum above $4,000/oz, crypto's institutional maturation through tokenization, and Canadian energy producers positioned for outperformance. High-quality fixed income provides portfolio anchoring while structural electrification trends support global infrastructure investments. |
| Jun 26 2025 | 2025 Q2 | BTC-USD, MSTR | AI, crypto, energy, fixed income, gold, infrastructure, Natural Gas, Trade Policy | - | Ninepoint sees opportunities in defensive sectors amid Trump trade policy uncertainty. Infrastructure benefits from massive fiscal spending and AI electricity demand. Natural gas shows structural LNG growth while oil faces inventory pressures. Gold trades above $3200 as safe haven with institutional crypto adoption accelerating. Fixed income provides stability as markets shift to defensive positioning in volatile environment. |
| Dec 18 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, BLK, COIN, CSCO, GOOGL, IBM, INTC, META, NVDA, PYPL, UBS, V | AI, crypto, energy, gold, infrastructure, private credit, Silver, Trump | - | Monetary policy divergence drives 2025 dynamics with Canadian rate cuts versus U.S. stability creating currency and bond opportunities. Trump administration benefits energy, infrastructure, and crypto through deregulation and clarity while creating tariff and inflation risks. Infrastructure emerges as secular growth theme from AI data centers and electrification. Elevated equity valuations and tight credit spreads pose downside risks. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
EnergyThe closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed 13-14 million barrels per day of oil supply, creating record low global inventories and driving prices significantly higher. Despite elevated prices, energy equities are valued at approximately $65 WTI, well below the expected $80 floor price, creating substantial upside as producers generate significant free cash flow for buybacks and dividends. |
Oil Natural Gas Exploration & Production Energy Trading Refiners |
AIHyperscaler cloud capital expenditure is growing at approximately 90% year-over-year, with cloud RPO crossing $2 trillion in Q1 2026, up 175% year-over-year. The AI spending cycle is transitioning from infrastructure buildout to genuine revenue monetization, with large-cap AI plays accounting for 40% of S&P 500 revenue growth and 70% of earnings growth. |
Data Centers Cloud Semiconductors GPUs Earnings | |
InflationHigher energy prices are driving inflation back into focus, with U.S. CPI approaching 4% and PPI running at 6%. The conflict in the Middle East has created stagflation concerns, with higher prices and lower growth presenting challenges that interest rates are not well suited to solve, potentially forcing the Fed to resume rate hikes if the conflict persists. |
Rates Oil Commodities Volatility | |
UraniumThe conflict in the Middle East has highlighted the strategic importance of energy independence and solidified ongoing trends of nuclear buildouts and growing demand for uranium. As countries seek reliable energy supply for national security and data centre needs while addressing carbon reduction commitments, nuclear energy stands out as an increasingly viable solution expected to continue for decades. |
Uranium Nuclear Energy Transition Energy Efficiency | |
GoldGold has stabilized around $4,500 after pulling back from January highs, establishing a new trading floor with persistent central bank demand and growing recognition as a foundational safe haven asset. Despite rising energy costs adding $70-95/oz to producer expenses, AISC margins remain in the $3,000/oz range, generating significant free cash flow while many gold equities trade at attractive valuations to historical averages. |
Gold Gold Miners Commodities | |
SilverThe physical silver market remains in structural supply deficit with mine production heavily constrained by strict permitting requirements and multi-year construction timelines. Following significant Q1 correction, silver prices stabilized near $70/oz, reflecting a fundamental shift in market perception from speculative investment to underfunded critical mineral and core strategic asset, with tokenized RWAs surpassing $30 billion. |
Silver Silver Miners Critical Minerals Battery Metals | |
Infrastructure SpendingNATO's 2025 defence spending commitment of 5.0% of GDP includes 1.5% linked to critical infrastructure sub-sectors, translating to approximately $800 billion in incremental annual infrastructure spending by 2035. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reinforced the imperative for sovereignty over critical infrastructure including transportation, energy, digital networks, and industrial capacity, driving years of above-trend investment. |
Defense Spending Infrastructure Spending Grid Upgrade Energy Transition | |
CryptoCrypto adoption is scaling while prices lag, with stablecoins growing from under $5 billion to more than $300 billion and tokenized RWAs surpassing $30 billion, up 200% year-over-year. Major institutions including NYSE, Nasdaq, and Morgan Stanley are launching tokenized platforms, marking crypto's transition from speculative technology to financial infrastructure, with convergence between crypto and AI emerging as crypto networks become the transaction layer for AI agents. |
Crypto FinTech AI Payments | |
| 2026 Q1 |
OilThe Middle East conflict has closed the Strait of Hormuz for several months, creating global oil shortages and higher prices. The world is short several million barrels per day, with devastating consequences for the global economy if the conflict persists. |
Energy Geopolitics Supply Prices Iran |
InflationHigher energy prices are spreading through to other prices, increasing both the level and breadth of inflation. Central banks face the complex problem of higher prices and lower growth, with some already hiking rates in response to the energy price shock. |
Central Banks Energy Monetary Policy Rates | |
RatesBond yields have moved significantly higher as markets price in potential rate hikes. The Fed may have little choice but to raise rates, embarking on another hike cycle, with expectations for cuts at the beginning of 2026 proving misguided. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Bonds Yields | |
AIAI hyperscalers have massive funding needs leading to record new issue activity in corporate bond markets. The AI CAPEX boom is pushing prices and inflation upward, contributing to inflationary pressures alongside energy and tariffs. |
Technology CAPEX Corporate Bonds Funding | |
Credit StressCorporate credit spreads were at multi-decade lows but are progressively repricing wider due to unprecedented new issue activity. The team expects spreads to continue modestly widening as markets digest the wave of corporate issuance. |
Corporate Bonds Spreads Issuance Credit Markets | |
| 2025 Q4 |
Biopharma M&AManager sees transformational deals as a key focus area going forward, with merger arbitrage spreads becoming less efficient and creating opportunities. The fund invested in 44 deals during the period and maintains high exposure to merger arbitrage transactions. |
M&A Arbitrage Spreads Transactions Deals |
AIManager views AI as the biggest catalyst to be unleashed into economies, creating a sea of change and tremendous opportunity as well as risk in analyzing underlying companies and their merged parts. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Catalyst Economy | |
OnshoringManager expects onshoring and supply chain re-optimization due to tariffs and current administration goals will create new winners and losers, representing a monumental shift in the global economy. |
Supply Chain Manufacturing Tariffs Trade | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump's attack on the global trading system has introduced new layers of uncertainty, rattling financial markets and forcing investors to reevaluate outlooks. The threat of tariffs will likely weigh on investor sentiment, with unpredictable announcements adding confusion. Global appetite for U.S. assets is set to wane due to policy uncertainty. |
Tariffs Trade War Policy Uncertainty Global Trade U.S. Assets |
Infrastructure SpendingFiscal spending will be driven by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act worth approximately US$550 billion through 2026, removal of Germany's debt brake worth approximately €500 billion over the next decade, and Ukraine reconstruction worth approximately US$500 billion. Infrastructure is ideally positioned to benefit from electrification and increased fiscal spending. |
Fiscal Spending Infrastructure Investment Jobs Act Ukraine Reconstruction Germany Debt Brake | |
AIElectricity demand is expected to accelerate at more than 2.5 times the pace of the past two decades, led primarily by construction of AI-focused data centers. The ongoing convergence of crypto and AI represents one of the most underappreciated storylines, with crypto miners starting to support AI hyperscalers. |
Data Centers Electricity Demand AI Hyperscalers Crypto Mining Computing Platforms | |
Natural GasThere's been a structural increase in global demand for Liquefied Natural Gas. U.S. LNG export capacity is currently 16 billion cubic feet per day and expected to grow to 26 Bcf/d by end of decade. Natural gas prices expected to strengthen to between $4 and $5 over the coming year as Canada increases LNG capacity. |
LNG Export Capacity Structural Demand Canadian Gas Price Strengthening | |
GoldGold has re-emerged as a safe haven, consistently trading above US$3200/oz since mid-April. Central bank purchases and safe-haven demand will support a multi-year gold bull cycle. Gold equities continue to trade at a discount to historical ranges despite improved free cash flow profiles. |
Safe Haven Central Bank Purchases Bull Cycle Gold Equities Free Cash Flow | |
CryptoInstitutional adoption continues to grow with asset managers tokenizing real-world assets, major banks developing stablecoins, and payment giants expanding crypto access. 86% of institutional investors are already exposed to crypto or plan to be by year-end, with 83% expecting to increase allocations. |
Institutional Adoption Tokenization Stablecoins Bitcoin Treasury Ethereum Strategy | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Energy TransitionInfrastructure positioned to benefit from electrification of the U.S. economy and energy transition. Electricity demand expected to accelerate dramatically led by AI-focused data centers, onshoring of industrial manufacturing, and continued growth of electrified transportation. Despite popular narrative that energy is a sunset industry, demand for oil, natural gas and coal expected to grow longer and stronger than consensus belief. |
Electrification Data Centers Manufacturing Transportation Infrastructure |
AIAI has taken the world by storm since Chat GPT launch in late 2022 and remains on course to cause continued disruption in nearly every sector in 2025. Nvidia has become the poster child for how companies can unlock billions in value in this new age. AI is on course to create five significant disruptions to business, culture and our way of life including health sciences, virtual companions, autonomous vehicles, creative industries, and machine-human brain interfaces. |
Nvidia Disruption Healthcare Autonomous Creativity | |
CryptoCrypto was the biggest winner of the Trump trade with Bitcoin rallying to reach $100,000 for the first time in history. Trump presidency viewed as more business-friendly and could bring regulatory clarity to an industry that has operated in a grey area. Appointment of pro-crypto officials may bring additional retail and institutional investors into crypto markets and provide access to growth capital for industry's leading businesses. |
Bitcoin Regulation Trump Institutional Growth | |
Infrastructure SpendingInfrastructure is a secular long-term growth area poised to benefit from tailwinds including rise in data centers, onshoring manufacturing and electrified transformation. Trump victory benefits stocks tied to deregulation, lower taxes and economic growth. Infrastructure remains ideally positioned to benefit from electrification of U.S. economy and energy transition with electricity demand expected to accelerate dramatically. |
Secular Deregulation Taxes Growth Electrification | |
GoldGold reached an all-time high in all currencies in late October ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Positive price momentum driven by geopolitical tensions and physical demand from central banks and retail in emerging markets. Central bank purchases expected to remain well above historical trends. Increasing concern over U.S. debt level and budget deficit likely to lead investors to refocus on gold. |
Central Banks Geopolitical Debt Deficit Emerging Markets | |
SilverSilver industrial use operating at record highs with demand expected to only grow in 2025. Key drivers include strong green economy investment in photovoltaics, power grids, 5G networks, automotive electronics, and growing centers for demand including nuclear power, medicine and AI. Silver supply not keeping up with demand leading to continued supply/demand deficits with deficits expected to persist. |
Industrial Photovoltaics 5G Nuclear Supply Deficit | |
Private CreditPrivate credit and leveraged lending markets began showing signs of gradual recovery in 2024 fueled by clearer monetary policy guidance, easing interest rates, and improved liquidity conditions. With interest rates set to continue decreasing throughout 2025, there will likely be an uptick in deal-making activity. Borrower performance anticipated to improve as consumer spending recovers and cost of capital decreases. |
Recovery Liquidity Deal-making Borrower Consumer | |
Trade PolicyTrump election combined with Republican sweep creates uncertainty around tariffs, deportations and heightened Federal Reserve intervention. Trump tariffs could trigger equity volatility and pre-emptive rate cuts as seen in 2018 Trade Wars. Trade wars and fiscal profligacy in U.S. are inflationary which could prevent Federal Reserve from materially easing policy while rest of world sees Trump tariffs as negative shock to growth requiring more monetary policy easing. |
Tariffs Deportations Volatility Inflation Easing |
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