| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 0% | 0% |
Ninepoint Partners views 2026 as a year of transition where central banks face a critical decision on rate cuts amid a tug-of-war between weakening labor markets and persistent inflation. The firm expects U.S. economic activity to rebound in the first half of 2026 driven by fiscal stimulus, while Canadian conditions remain subdued. This environment creates compelling opportunities across multiple themes. Natural gas has evolved from a bridge fuel to essential infrastructure for massive electricity demand growth, with U.S. LNG capacity expanding and data center power needs driving 20% demand growth in Texas alone. AI remains the strongest market tailwind, still in early adoption stages with transformative potential across industries. Gold continues its strategic asset status with central bank demand supporting prices above $4,000/oz, while crypto reaches institutional maturity through regulatory clarity and tokenization acceleration. The firm sees attractive prospects in high-quality fixed income for portfolio anchoring, Canadian energy producers with exceptional inventory depth, and global infrastructure linked to long-term electrification trends. Active management remains critical for navigating this complex but opportunity-rich landscape.
2026 presents a complex but opportunity-rich environment where central bank policy uncertainty creates a tug-of-war between weakening labor markets and elevated inflation, while structural themes including AI-driven electrification, natural gas demand growth, gold's strategic asset status, and crypto's institutional maturation offer compelling investment opportunities across multiple asset classes.
The outlook for 2026 is shaped by a tug-of-war between weakening labour markets and still-elevated inflation. U.S. activity is expected to pick up supported by fiscal spending, while conditions in Canada remain more subdued. This environment is creating opportunities in high-quality fixed income, natural gas, gold and critical minerals, global infrastructure linked to long-term electrification, and a crypto ecosystem that is steadily maturing.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18 2026 | 2025 Q4 | COIN, FIGR, SHOP.TO | AI, crypto, Electrification, energy, fixed income, gold, infrastructure, Natural Gas | - | Ninepoint sees 2026 as opportunity-rich despite central bank uncertainty, with compelling themes including natural gas demand surge from AI-driven electrification, gold's continued strategic asset momentum above $4,000/oz, crypto's institutional maturation through tokenization, and Canadian energy producers positioned for outperformance. High-quality fixed income provides portfolio anchoring while structural electrification trends support global infrastructure investments. |
| Jun 26 2025 | 2025 Q2 | BTC-USD, MSTR | AI, crypto, energy, fixed income, gold, infrastructure, Natural Gas, Trade Policy | - | Ninepoint sees opportunities in defensive sectors amid Trump trade policy uncertainty. Infrastructure benefits from massive fiscal spending and AI electricity demand. Natural gas shows structural LNG growth while oil faces inventory pressures. Gold trades above $3200 as safe haven with institutional crypto adoption accelerating. Fixed income provides stability as markets shift to defensive positioning in volatile environment. |
| Dec 18 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, BLK, COIN, CSCO, GOOGL, IBM, INTC, META, NVDA, PYPL, UBS, V | AI, crypto, energy, gold, infrastructure, private credit, Silver, Trump | - | Monetary policy divergence drives 2025 dynamics with Canadian rate cuts versus U.S. stability creating currency and bond opportunities. Trump administration benefits energy, infrastructure, and crypto through deregulation and clarity while creating tariff and inflation risks. Infrastructure emerges as secular growth theme from AI data centers and electrification. Elevated equity valuations and tight credit spreads pose downside risks. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
Biopharma M&AManager sees transformational deals as a key focus area going forward, with merger arbitrage spreads becoming less efficient and creating opportunities. The fund invested in 44 deals during the period and maintains high exposure to merger arbitrage transactions. |
M&A Arbitrage Spreads Transactions Deals |
AIManager views AI as the biggest catalyst to be unleashed into economies, creating a sea of change and tremendous opportunity as well as risk in analyzing underlying companies and their merged parts. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Catalyst Economy | |
OnshoringManager expects onshoring and supply chain re-optimization due to tariffs and current administration goals will create new winners and losers, representing a monumental shift in the global economy. |
Supply Chain Manufacturing Tariffs Trade | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump's attack on the global trading system has introduced new layers of uncertainty, rattling financial markets and forcing investors to reevaluate outlooks. The threat of tariffs will likely weigh on investor sentiment, with unpredictable announcements adding confusion. Global appetite for U.S. assets is set to wane due to policy uncertainty. |
Tariffs Trade War Policy Uncertainty Global Trade U.S. Assets |
Infrastructure SpendingFiscal spending will be driven by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act worth approximately US$550 billion through 2026, removal of Germany's debt brake worth approximately €500 billion over the next decade, and Ukraine reconstruction worth approximately US$500 billion. Infrastructure is ideally positioned to benefit from electrification and increased fiscal spending. |
Fiscal Spending Infrastructure Investment Jobs Act Ukraine Reconstruction Germany Debt Brake | |
AIElectricity demand is expected to accelerate at more than 2.5 times the pace of the past two decades, led primarily by construction of AI-focused data centers. The ongoing convergence of crypto and AI represents one of the most underappreciated storylines, with crypto miners starting to support AI hyperscalers. |
Data Centers Electricity Demand AI Hyperscalers Crypto Mining Computing Platforms | |
Natural GasThere's been a structural increase in global demand for Liquefied Natural Gas. U.S. LNG export capacity is currently 16 billion cubic feet per day and expected to grow to 26 Bcf/d by end of decade. Natural gas prices expected to strengthen to between $4 and $5 over the coming year as Canada increases LNG capacity. |
LNG Export Capacity Structural Demand Canadian Gas Price Strengthening | |
GoldGold has re-emerged as a safe haven, consistently trading above US$3200/oz since mid-April. Central bank purchases and safe-haven demand will support a multi-year gold bull cycle. Gold equities continue to trade at a discount to historical ranges despite improved free cash flow profiles. |
Safe Haven Central Bank Purchases Bull Cycle Gold Equities Free Cash Flow | |
CryptoInstitutional adoption continues to grow with asset managers tokenizing real-world assets, major banks developing stablecoins, and payment giants expanding crypto access. 86% of institutional investors are already exposed to crypto or plan to be by year-end, with 83% expecting to increase allocations. |
Institutional Adoption Tokenization Stablecoins Bitcoin Treasury Ethereum Strategy | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Energy TransitionInfrastructure positioned to benefit from electrification of the U.S. economy and energy transition. Electricity demand expected to accelerate dramatically led by AI-focused data centers, onshoring of industrial manufacturing, and continued growth of electrified transportation. Despite popular narrative that energy is a sunset industry, demand for oil, natural gas and coal expected to grow longer and stronger than consensus belief. |
Electrification Data Centers Manufacturing Transportation Infrastructure |
AIAI has taken the world by storm since Chat GPT launch in late 2022 and remains on course to cause continued disruption in nearly every sector in 2025. Nvidia has become the poster child for how companies can unlock billions in value in this new age. AI is on course to create five significant disruptions to business, culture and our way of life including health sciences, virtual companions, autonomous vehicles, creative industries, and machine-human brain interfaces. |
Nvidia Disruption Healthcare Autonomous Creativity | |
CryptoCrypto was the biggest winner of the Trump trade with Bitcoin rallying to reach $100,000 for the first time in history. Trump presidency viewed as more business-friendly and could bring regulatory clarity to an industry that has operated in a grey area. Appointment of pro-crypto officials may bring additional retail and institutional investors into crypto markets and provide access to growth capital for industry's leading businesses. |
Bitcoin Regulation Trump Institutional Growth | |
Infrastructure SpendingInfrastructure is a secular long-term growth area poised to benefit from tailwinds including rise in data centers, onshoring manufacturing and electrified transformation. Trump victory benefits stocks tied to deregulation, lower taxes and economic growth. Infrastructure remains ideally positioned to benefit from electrification of U.S. economy and energy transition with electricity demand expected to accelerate dramatically. |
Secular Deregulation Taxes Growth Electrification | |
GoldGold reached an all-time high in all currencies in late October ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Positive price momentum driven by geopolitical tensions and physical demand from central banks and retail in emerging markets. Central bank purchases expected to remain well above historical trends. Increasing concern over U.S. debt level and budget deficit likely to lead investors to refocus on gold. |
Central Banks Geopolitical Debt Deficit Emerging Markets | |
SilverSilver industrial use operating at record highs with demand expected to only grow in 2025. Key drivers include strong green economy investment in photovoltaics, power grids, 5G networks, automotive electronics, and growing centers for demand including nuclear power, medicine and AI. Silver supply not keeping up with demand leading to continued supply/demand deficits with deficits expected to persist. |
Industrial Photovoltaics 5G Nuclear Supply Deficit | |
Private CreditPrivate credit and leveraged lending markets began showing signs of gradual recovery in 2024 fueled by clearer monetary policy guidance, easing interest rates, and improved liquidity conditions. With interest rates set to continue decreasing throughout 2025, there will likely be an uptick in deal-making activity. Borrower performance anticipated to improve as consumer spending recovers and cost of capital decreases. |
Recovery Liquidity Deal-making Borrower Consumer | |
Trade PolicyTrump election combined with Republican sweep creates uncertainty around tariffs, deportations and heightened Federal Reserve intervention. Trump tariffs could trigger equity volatility and pre-emptive rate cuts as seen in 2018 Trade Wars. Trade wars and fiscal profligacy in U.S. are inflationary which could prevent Federal Reserve from materially easing policy while rest of world sees Trump tariffs as negative shock to growth requiring more monetary policy easing. |
Tariffs Deportations Volatility Inflation Easing |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| COIN | Coinbase (a new position) experienced extended volatility as crypto currency prices softened into December. We continued to build exposure to our financial deregulation and disintermediation of financial services theme through the purchase of Coinbase, to gain exposure to the regulated infrastructure of cryptocurrencies - particularly stablecoins - following the passage of the GENIUS Act by Congress. |
| SHOP.TO | Non dividend paying technology names Shopify and Celestica had also meaningful contribution to the index returns for the year, detracting our relative outcome. |
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