| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Ninepoint's fixed income team maintains a defensive stance amid Middle East conflict disrupting global energy supplies. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created oil shortages and price spikes, forcing central banks to consider rate hikes despite economic growth concerns. While North American economies have energy advantages, Europe and Asia face both higher prices and supply shortages. The Fed may abandon rate cut expectations and embark on another hiking cycle if energy-driven inflation persists and broadens. Credit markets face pressure from record corporate bond issuance, led by AI hyperscalers with massive funding needs. Google issued the largest Canadian corporate bond deal at $8.5 billion. The team maintains low duration positioning and uses derivatives to manage volatility while generating income. Portfolio yields remain healthy at 5-6% despite defensive posture, supported by hybrid bonds and asset-backed securities. The strategy emphasizes nimble duration management and credit protection while awaiting resolution of geopolitical tensions and their economic implications.
Defensive fixed income positioning is warranted given geopolitical energy supply disruptions, inflationary pressures, and credit market stress from record corporate issuance.
The team expects to manage rate and credit risks tightly given the wide range of potential economic outcomes. They believe current defensive positioning is appropriate but remain ready to adjust if conditions change materially.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28 2026 | 2026 Q1 | GOOGL | credit, energy, fixed income, geopolitics, inflation, rates | - | Ninepoint maintains defensive fixed income positioning amid Middle East energy crisis driving inflation and potential Fed rate hikes. Record corporate bond issuance from AI companies pressures credit spreads. The team uses low duration and derivatives to navigate volatility while maintaining 5-6% portfolio yields through selective security sourcing. |
| Jan 18 2026 | 2025 Q4 | COIN, FIGR, SHOP.TO | AI, crypto, Electrification, energy, fixed income, gold, infrastructure, Natural Gas | - | Ninepoint sees 2026 as opportunity-rich despite central bank uncertainty, with compelling themes including natural gas demand surge from AI-driven electrification, gold's continued strategic asset momentum above $4,000/oz, crypto's institutional maturation through tokenization, and Canadian energy producers positioned for outperformance. High-quality fixed income provides portfolio anchoring while structural electrification trends support global infrastructure investments. |
| Jun 26 2025 | 2025 Q2 | BTC-USD, MSTR | AI, crypto, energy, fixed income, gold, infrastructure, Natural Gas, Trade Policy | - | Ninepoint sees opportunities in defensive sectors amid Trump trade policy uncertainty. Infrastructure benefits from massive fiscal spending and AI electricity demand. Natural gas shows structural LNG growth while oil faces inventory pressures. Gold trades above $3200 as safe haven with institutional crypto adoption accelerating. Fixed income provides stability as markets shift to defensive positioning in volatile environment. |
| Dec 18 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, BLK, COIN, CSCO, GOOGL, IBM, INTC, META, NVDA, PYPL, UBS, V | AI, crypto, energy, gold, infrastructure, private credit, Silver, Trump | - | Monetary policy divergence drives 2025 dynamics with Canadian rate cuts versus U.S. stability creating currency and bond opportunities. Trump administration benefits energy, infrastructure, and crypto through deregulation and clarity while creating tariff and inflation risks. Infrastructure emerges as secular growth theme from AI data centers and electrification. Elevated equity valuations and tight credit spreads pose downside risks. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilThe Middle East conflict has closed the Strait of Hormuz for several months, creating global oil shortages and higher prices. The world is short several million barrels per day, with devastating consequences for the global economy if the conflict persists. |
Energy Geopolitics Supply Prices Iran |
InflationHigher energy prices are spreading through to other prices, increasing both the level and breadth of inflation. Central banks face the complex problem of higher prices and lower growth, with some already hiking rates in response to the energy price shock. |
Central Banks Energy Monetary Policy Rates | |
RatesBond yields have moved significantly higher as markets price in potential rate hikes. The Fed may have little choice but to raise rates, embarking on another hike cycle, with expectations for cuts at the beginning of 2026 proving misguided. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Bonds Yields | |
AIAI hyperscalers have massive funding needs leading to record new issue activity in corporate bond markets. The AI CAPEX boom is pushing prices and inflation upward, contributing to inflationary pressures alongside energy and tariffs. |
Technology CAPEX Corporate Bonds Funding | |
Credit StressCorporate credit spreads were at multi-decade lows but are progressively repricing wider due to unprecedented new issue activity. The team expects spreads to continue modestly widening as markets digest the wave of corporate issuance. |
Corporate Bonds Spreads Issuance Credit Markets | |
| 2025 Q4 |
Biopharma M&AManager sees transformational deals as a key focus area going forward, with merger arbitrage spreads becoming less efficient and creating opportunities. The fund invested in 44 deals during the period and maintains high exposure to merger arbitrage transactions. |
M&A Arbitrage Spreads Transactions Deals |
AIManager views AI as the biggest catalyst to be unleashed into economies, creating a sea of change and tremendous opportunity as well as risk in analyzing underlying companies and their merged parts. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Catalyst Economy | |
OnshoringManager expects onshoring and supply chain re-optimization due to tariffs and current administration goals will create new winners and losers, representing a monumental shift in the global economy. |
Supply Chain Manufacturing Tariffs Trade | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump's attack on the global trading system has introduced new layers of uncertainty, rattling financial markets and forcing investors to reevaluate outlooks. The threat of tariffs will likely weigh on investor sentiment, with unpredictable announcements adding confusion. Global appetite for U.S. assets is set to wane due to policy uncertainty. |
Tariffs Trade War Policy Uncertainty Global Trade U.S. Assets |
Infrastructure SpendingFiscal spending will be driven by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act worth approximately US$550 billion through 2026, removal of Germany's debt brake worth approximately €500 billion over the next decade, and Ukraine reconstruction worth approximately US$500 billion. Infrastructure is ideally positioned to benefit from electrification and increased fiscal spending. |
Fiscal Spending Infrastructure Investment Jobs Act Ukraine Reconstruction Germany Debt Brake | |
AIElectricity demand is expected to accelerate at more than 2.5 times the pace of the past two decades, led primarily by construction of AI-focused data centers. The ongoing convergence of crypto and AI represents one of the most underappreciated storylines, with crypto miners starting to support AI hyperscalers. |
Data Centers Electricity Demand AI Hyperscalers Crypto Mining Computing Platforms | |
Natural GasThere's been a structural increase in global demand for Liquefied Natural Gas. U.S. LNG export capacity is currently 16 billion cubic feet per day and expected to grow to 26 Bcf/d by end of decade. Natural gas prices expected to strengthen to between $4 and $5 over the coming year as Canada increases LNG capacity. |
LNG Export Capacity Structural Demand Canadian Gas Price Strengthening | |
GoldGold has re-emerged as a safe haven, consistently trading above US$3200/oz since mid-April. Central bank purchases and safe-haven demand will support a multi-year gold bull cycle. Gold equities continue to trade at a discount to historical ranges despite improved free cash flow profiles. |
Safe Haven Central Bank Purchases Bull Cycle Gold Equities Free Cash Flow | |
CryptoInstitutional adoption continues to grow with asset managers tokenizing real-world assets, major banks developing stablecoins, and payment giants expanding crypto access. 86% of institutional investors are already exposed to crypto or plan to be by year-end, with 83% expecting to increase allocations. |
Institutional Adoption Tokenization Stablecoins Bitcoin Treasury Ethereum Strategy | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Energy TransitionInfrastructure positioned to benefit from electrification of the U.S. economy and energy transition. Electricity demand expected to accelerate dramatically led by AI-focused data centers, onshoring of industrial manufacturing, and continued growth of electrified transportation. Despite popular narrative that energy is a sunset industry, demand for oil, natural gas and coal expected to grow longer and stronger than consensus belief. |
Electrification Data Centers Manufacturing Transportation Infrastructure |
AIAI has taken the world by storm since Chat GPT launch in late 2022 and remains on course to cause continued disruption in nearly every sector in 2025. Nvidia has become the poster child for how companies can unlock billions in value in this new age. AI is on course to create five significant disruptions to business, culture and our way of life including health sciences, virtual companions, autonomous vehicles, creative industries, and machine-human brain interfaces. |
Nvidia Disruption Healthcare Autonomous Creativity | |
CryptoCrypto was the biggest winner of the Trump trade with Bitcoin rallying to reach $100,000 for the first time in history. Trump presidency viewed as more business-friendly and could bring regulatory clarity to an industry that has operated in a grey area. Appointment of pro-crypto officials may bring additional retail and institutional investors into crypto markets and provide access to growth capital for industry's leading businesses. |
Bitcoin Regulation Trump Institutional Growth | |
Infrastructure SpendingInfrastructure is a secular long-term growth area poised to benefit from tailwinds including rise in data centers, onshoring manufacturing and electrified transformation. Trump victory benefits stocks tied to deregulation, lower taxes and economic growth. Infrastructure remains ideally positioned to benefit from electrification of U.S. economy and energy transition with electricity demand expected to accelerate dramatically. |
Secular Deregulation Taxes Growth Electrification | |
GoldGold reached an all-time high in all currencies in late October ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Positive price momentum driven by geopolitical tensions and physical demand from central banks and retail in emerging markets. Central bank purchases expected to remain well above historical trends. Increasing concern over U.S. debt level and budget deficit likely to lead investors to refocus on gold. |
Central Banks Geopolitical Debt Deficit Emerging Markets | |
SilverSilver industrial use operating at record highs with demand expected to only grow in 2025. Key drivers include strong green economy investment in photovoltaics, power grids, 5G networks, automotive electronics, and growing centers for demand including nuclear power, medicine and AI. Silver supply not keeping up with demand leading to continued supply/demand deficits with deficits expected to persist. |
Industrial Photovoltaics 5G Nuclear Supply Deficit | |
Private CreditPrivate credit and leveraged lending markets began showing signs of gradual recovery in 2024 fueled by clearer monetary policy guidance, easing interest rates, and improved liquidity conditions. With interest rates set to continue decreasing throughout 2025, there will likely be an uptick in deal-making activity. Borrower performance anticipated to improve as consumer spending recovers and cost of capital decreases. |
Recovery Liquidity Deal-making Borrower Consumer | |
Trade PolicyTrump election combined with Republican sweep creates uncertainty around tariffs, deportations and heightened Federal Reserve intervention. Trump tariffs could trigger equity volatility and pre-emptive rate cuts as seen in 2018 Trade Wars. Trade wars and fiscal profligacy in U.S. are inflationary which could prevent Federal Reserve from materially easing policy while rest of world sees Trump tariffs as negative shock to growth requiring more monetary policy easing. |
Tariffs Deportations Volatility Inflation Easing |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| GOOGL | In May, our first hyperscaler (Google) printed the largest ever corporate bond deal in Canada, at $8.5bn. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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