| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 30.9% | - | 24.3% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 24.3% |
2025 marked a decisive shift in global market leadership, with Japan, Emerging Markets and Europe delivering gains of roughly 32%, 34% and 35%, materially outperforming US equities. The US dollar entered a clear downcycle with the Dollar Index down 9.4%, amplifying the rotation away from US assets. Gold rose 64.1% while silver delivered an exceptional 147% return, driven by allocation-driven demand and physical market tightness. The NCM Global Equity Selection Fund captured these shifting dynamics through active macro allocation, delivering +24.3% net returns and outperforming global benchmarks. Key positioning included early exposure to China and Emerging Markets, European banks, and precious metals, with systematic overlay strategies contributing 200 basis points to performance. The managers view the USD downcycle as structural rather than cyclical, echoing the 2002-2007 period favorable to non-US assets. Looking forward, they maintain increased bias toward Emerging Markets and expect precious metals to continue repricing amid persistent inflation and fiscal dominance.
2025 marked a decisive shift in global market leadership away from US dominance, with broad-based equity gains outside the United States, a structural USD downcycle, and exceptional precious metals performance reshaping portfolios and challenging familiar narratives.
The managers believe the USD downcycle is now a structural feature rather than a short-term anomaly, echoing the 2002-2007 cycle historically favorable to non-US assets. They expect precious metals to continue repricing a new global regime defined by persistent inflation, fiscal dominance, and structural supply constraints. Silver remains their highest-conviction opportunity for 2026, combining monetary attributes with acute industrial scarcity.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, Currency, Dollar, emerging markets, Fed policy, gold, Precious Metals, Silver | - | The letter emphasizes Nobles long-standing focus on high-quality businesses with durable earnings, strong balance sheets, and consistent free cash flow generation. Management highlights cautious portfolio positioning amid elevated valuations and market concentration, preferring companies with predictable fundamentals over speculative growth narratives. The strategy remains anchored in valuation discipline and long-term compounding rather than short-term market momentum. |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | diversification, gold, inflation, Monetary, Preciousmetals | - | The letter argues that gold has become the primary global safe haven as confidence in fiat currencies, central bank independence, and the traditional stock-bond diversification framework erodes. Structural forces including persistent inflation, de-dollarization, fiscal dominance, and geopolitical fragmentation are driving sustained demand for gold and other precious metals. Gold is positioned as a core, long-duration monetary asset rather than a tactical inflation hedge. |
| Jan 17 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | fiscal risk, Gold Bull Cycle, Inflation Hedging, Market Concentration, Precious Metals | - | The year-end review highlights one of the strongest years on record for global markets, dominated by U.S. mega-cap growth and extreme equity concentration. Despite rising yields and a strong U.S. dollar, gold delivered one of its best performances in decades, signaling a structural shift toward inflation hedging and reserve diversification. Looking forward, Noble expects continued demand for gold and silver as portfolios rotate away from deflation hedges toward protection against fiscal expansion, geopolitical risk, and monetary instability. |
| Oct 8 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | Antifragile Assets, Correlation Risk, Gold Valuation, Interest Rate Cuts, portfolio construction | - | The letter emphasizes unusual asset-class leadership following aggressive rate cuts despite solid growth, with gold emerging as the top-performing asset while commodities lagged. Noble reiterates its preference for antifragile portfolio construction over traditional 60/40 frameworks, arguing that bonds and equities have become positively correlated. Gold valuation metrics suggest the rally is structurally supported rather than speculative excess, reinforcing its role as a long-duration hedge. |
| Jul 4 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | Asset Allocation Shift, Central Bank Demand, Fiscal Dominance, Gold Bull Market, Inflation Regime | - | The commentary highlights a decisive bullish breakout in gold as prices moved through long-term resistance, confirming a new cyclical uptrend supported by central bank demand and rising fiscal dominance. Traditional asset correlations weakened, with bonds failing to hedge equity risk while gold provided both diversification and absolute returns. The managers frame this move as part of a broader regime shift away from disinflationary asset allocation toward scarcity and inflation-sensitive assets. |
| Apr 3 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | Currency Risk, Gold Allocation, Inflation Hedging, Monetary Liquidity, real assets | - | The letter discusses a regime marked by persistent inflation risk, rising geopolitical tension, and renewed liquidity injections that continue to favor scarcity assets over financial assets. Gold began to reassert leadership as real rates peaked and confidence in fiat discipline weakened, while equity markets remained narrowly driven by U.S. mega-cap growth. The managers argue that portfolios remain structurally under-hedged against inflation and currency debasement, reinforcing the role of gold and real assets as core allocation anchors. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand |
| 2024 Q4 |
ConcentrationFive companies now represent roughly 30% of the S&P 500's market cap. The top 10 exceed 40%—the highest concentration in 50 years. Nearly $340 billion flowed into U.S. deals, yet it was packed into the fewest deals of the decade, with nearly half the capital concentrated in a few dozen deals over $500 million. |
Market Capital Risk Deals Venture |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Allocation |
|
Antifragile |
||
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Breakout |
|
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
Regime |
||
| 2024 Q1 |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
LiquidityManager extensively discusses liquidity challenges in African frontier markets, explaining how tight ownership structures and limited foreign participation restrict trading volumes. Notes that liquidity varies cyclically and structurally, with potential improvement expected as bull market develops and more investor categories participate. |
Trading Volumes Participation Structural Cyclical |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
