| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | 4.6% |
Norbury Capital Fund returned +6.7% in April, slightly lagging the MSCI Europe Small-Cap index at +7.4%, bringing year-to-date performance to +4.6%. The fund focuses on European small-cap opportunities with strong competitive positioning. Top contributors included PVA Tepla and PolyPeptide Group, while Vopak detracted from performance. The manager highlights Tonies as a compelling investment case, representing a unique audio entertainment company for children with a razor-razorblade business model. Tonies has achieved impressive market penetration of over 50% among German parents with young children and grew 36% organically last year, including 40% growth in the US market. The company benefits from extensive IP licensing agreements with Disney, Paw Patrol, and other popular children's brands, creating competitive moats. With EBITDA margins reaching double digits for the first time and trading at 13x EV/EBITDA, the manager sees significant upside potential as the company expands geographically and launches new products like Pokémon figurines and Tonieplay games.
European small-cap investing focused on companies with strong competitive moats and growth potential, exemplified by Tonies' razor-razorblade business model and global expansion opportunity.
The manager expects Tonies to continue growing around 30% with geographic expansion opportunities and new content launches providing growth drivers.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17 2026 | 2026 Q1 | 7CP.DE | consumer, Europe, growth, small caps, Toymakers | - | European small-cap fund highlighting Tonies as a compelling growth story with razor-razorblade business model in children's audio entertainment. Company achieved 50% German market penetration and 36% organic growth with strong IP licensing moats. Trading at 13x EV/EBITDA with 30% targeted growth and global expansion runway ahead. |
| Dec 31 2025 | 2025 Q4 | CER.L, MEDI.PA, PDX.ST, RNK.DE, ZEG.L | Europe, Outperformance, Process, Quality, small caps, value | - | Norbury Capital's 30% annual return significantly outperformed European small-caps through concentrated positions in quality companies like Medincell, Renk, and Zegona. The manager acknowledges luck played a role alongside skill and emphasizes continuous process improvement over chasing short-term results. Focus remains on disciplined European small-cap investing for long-term outperformance. |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AZE.BR, IMCD.AS, MEDCL.PA, PHLL.L | Consolidation, Distribution, Europe, SmallCap, Specialty Chemicals | - | Norbury Capital targets high-quality European small-caps, particularly specialty chemicals distributors benefiting from consolidation trends. Strong September performance (+3.5%) was driven by Medincell and Petershill Partners, bringing YTD returns to +24.4%. Despite recent weakness in Azelis holdings, the manager is adding to positions given attractive valuations and expects market recovery. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
ToymakersTonies represents a compelling investment case with strong competitive moats through IP licensing, razor-razorblade business model, and high penetration rates. The company has achieved over 50% penetration in Germany and is expanding globally with 36% organic growth last year. Management targets continued 30% growth with EBITDA margins reaching double digits for the first time. |
Audio Children Content Licensing Growth |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager sees AI as driving significant growth across multiple portfolio holdings. Alphabet's AI monetization through Google Cloud and Gemini platform enhancements exceeded expectations. Applied Materials benefits from AI-related capacity buildout in advanced logic and high-bandwidth memory. Microsoft's Azure growth and Copilot adoption reinforce AI leadership despite elevated capital investment. |
Cloud Infrastructure Monetization Training Inference |
CloudCloud infrastructure remains a key growth driver with Google Cloud growing over 30% year-over-year supported by rapid AI adoption. Microsoft Azure delivered 39% growth with strong remaining performance obligations providing multi-year revenue visibility. Manager views cloud as foundational to AI infrastructure buildout. |
Infrastructure Growth Enterprise Services | |
PharmaceuticalsEli Lilly was a top performer driven by its GLP-1 franchises Mounjaro and Zepbound, where sales more than doubled year-over-year. Manager believes Lilly remains one of the highest-quality growth franchises in global healthcare with leadership in diabetes, obesity, and neuroscience providing durable competitive advantages. |
GLP1 Diabetes Obesity Pipeline | |
SemiconductorsApplied Materials benefited from improving wafer-fab spending visibility with orders tied to AI-related capacity tracking ahead of plan. Manager believes AMAT is well positioned in the semiconductor capital equipment ecosystem, benefiting from structural increases in semiconductor intensity and AI infrastructure buildout. |
Equipment Foundries Memory Logic | |
StreamingNetflix was the portfolio's largest detractor following concerns around near-term subscriber growth and rising content spending. While revenue grew approximately 10% year-over-year, management guided to slower net subscriber additions after recent price increases. The proposed Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition introduces integration and regulatory concerns. |
Content Subscribers Competition Consolidation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Specialty ChemicalsFocus on high-quality specialty chemicals distribution businesses like Azelis and IMCD that connect suppliers with smaller end-customers. These asset-light businesses benefit from industry consolidation and outsourcing trends, with operational profit closely aligning with free cash flow. However, the sector faces headwinds from prolonged destocking cycles and weak global trade conditions. |
Distribution Consolidation Outsourcing Asset-light Free cash flow |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Fund Letters | Norbury Capital | - | Tonies SE | Leisure | Leisure Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Audio Entertainment, Children's Products, Consumer Discretionary, Geographic Expansion, Germany, growth, IP Licensing, margin expansion, Razor-Blade Model, US market | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 7CP.DE | A company we believe has strong potential to perform from here is Tonies. Tonies sells audio-boxes and figurines. The figurines contain a chip that plays audio when placed on the box (mostly stories and songs related to the figurines). Tonies has the IP-licenses of most of the figures that kids are familiar with: Disney, Paw Patrol, Cars, Peppa Pig etc. The box is sold at no margin, instead the money is made on the figurines. At €15-20, it is a small purchase and works well as a gift. Typically, you can also buy additional stories in the app for existing figurines at €5-10 per story. In essence the Toniebox is the razor and the Tonies are the razorblades. A typical buyer of a Toniebox acquires an additional -€200 on figurines and content. Given the large installed base of nearly 12m Tonieboxes sold, the extensive content library with many licensed Ips, large retail footprint and modest margin, competition is increasingly unlikely. Tonies were introduced in 2016. Since then, the company has achieved an impressive penetration rate of over 50% in Germany with parents with young children. Despite its high penetration, Tonies has been able to grow at double-digit rates for three years in a row in the DACH region, mainly through more content. Last year the company grew 36% organically, of which an impressive 40% in its largest market, the US. Growth is mainly limited by what the organization can support. The CEO says continued growth around 30% is what it aims for. Currently they are only physically sold in the DACH region, the US, UK, Australia and New Zealand and France. Thus, Tonies has many years left to expand geographically. Additionally, it grows in content. This summer both Pokémon figurines and audio-based games for older children are launched, which is called Tonieplay. At its capital markets day in June, we expect to hear further expansion plans. This year it expects to grow above 20% revenue. Its EBITDA margin is reaching double digits for the first time. In the mature DACH region this margin is already above 25%, so over time other markets should trend towards this figure as the product mix moves towards more figurines and fewer Tonieboxes. It's a pretty unique investment case with both near-term triggers and excellent long-term prospects. Many investors dismiss it superficially as a fad or hype, but that perception is slowly changing. At 13x EV/EBITDA, with an in our view conservative EBITDA estimate, you get more than 30% earnings growth for the foreseeable future. |
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