| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
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| - | - | - |
NS Partners' Q1 2026 review describes markets facing an unprecedented binary outcome driven by the Iranian closure of the Straits of Hormuz following US/Israeli military action. The blockade has created the largest global energy disruption since WWII, with oil prices rising 68% in March and threatening 20% of global energy exports. The crisis extends beyond oil to refined products, with 68 refineries in the war zone producing critical inputs for semiconductors, fertilizers, and plastics. Taiwan's semiconductor production faces particular vulnerability due to LNG dependence. The disruption threatens broad inflation through multiple channels and comes at a precarious time with hyperscaler capex at $600 billion, private credit stress, and reduced fiscal capacity in Western governments. Electoral pressures on Trump and Iran's economic collapse provide incentives for resolution, but the longer the impasse persists, the greater the economic damage. Markets remain under pressure until shipping resumes, with potential for either significant recovery or deeper recession depending on geopolitical outcomes.
Global markets are at an unusual binary junction where outcomes depend entirely on geopolitical resolution in the Middle East, with the Iranian blockade of Hormuz creating the largest energy disruption since WWII and threatening broad economic damage through inflation and supply chain breakdown.
Markets face a binary outcome dependent on Middle East resolution. If the Hormuz Straits reopen, oil prices could return to half current levels and the global economy can regain momentum from fiscal stimulus in the US, Germany, Japan and China's export boom. However, the longer the impasse persists, the worse economic damage will be as supply shortages intensify. The situation remains fluid and uncertain with significant downside risks.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | Crisis, energy, geopolitics, global, inflation, Iran, oil, semiconductors | - | Markets face binary outcomes from Iran's Hormuz blockade creating the largest energy disruption since WWII. Oil up 68% threatens global supply chains from semiconductors to fertilizers. Electoral pressures and Iran's economic collapse provide resolution incentives, but prolonged crisis risks recession. Recovery possible if shipping resumes, otherwise deepening economic damage likely. |
| Jan 8 2026 | 2025 Q4 | GOOGL, KO, NVDA, PG | AI, Biotechnology, commodities, emerging markets, energy, global, private equity, technology | - | Global markets are broadening beyond US technology dominance as AI investment reaches unsustainable levels. Attractive opportunities emerge in overlooked international markets, commodities, energy, and biotech while government fiscal excess threatens bond stability. The manager advocates diversification away from AI-centric positioning toward global equities, hard assets, and sectors benefiting from technological transformation. |
| Oct 7 2025 | 2025 Q3 | NVDA | AI, Buybacks, Dollar, emerging markets, gold, government debt, inflation, technology | - | Global inflationary boom driven by loose fiscal and monetary policies has created AI-fueled bubble conditions in US equities while government debt crises threaten bonds. Despite overvaluation risks and market complacency, lack of attractive alternatives and strong earnings support continued equity gains. Gold's 47% rise reflects currency debasement concerns and dollar weakness. |
| Jul 8 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AMZN, GLXY.TO, GOOGL, LRCX, META, MSFT, MU, SOXX, V, VOO | AI, Fed policy, Global Markets, Portfolio Management, semiconductors, technology | - | Alpine Capital maintains concentrated exposure to AI infrastructure beneficiaries, executing strategic semiconductor rotations while dismissing bubble concerns. With Fed policy pivoting supportive and two more rate cuts expected, the firm believes current AI spending by mega-caps is necessary and sustainable. Their low-turnover, concentrated approach targets long-term outperformance through patient capital deployment in quality technology leaders. |
| Apr 3 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | consumer, Fed policy, Gdp, inflation, Markets, sector rotation, Trade Policy | - | U.S. markets posted strong Q2 2025 gains with S&P 500 up 10.2% and NASDAQ surging 16.7%, driven by cooling inflation and resilient sentiment despite tariff volatility. Tech outperformed dramatically while Energy lagged. Fed held rates steady requiring greater disinflation confidence. Consumer confidence declined with recession warning signals emerging. |
| Jan 3 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN | Capitalism, Currency, global, South Africa, tariffs, Trade Policy, United States | - | Alpine Capital views Q1 2025's tariff-driven market volatility as temporary disruption, maintaining conviction in US economic resilience despite S&P 500's 4.3% decline. The firm deliberately underweights South Africa due to structural challenges while emphasizing America's capitalist advantages and shareholder-focused culture. Expects 2025 consolidation with opportunities emerging from valuation reset and continued robust US corporate earnings growth. |
| Oct 2 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AMZN, EADSF, GS, HCLTECH.NS, INFY, JPM, MSFT, ORCL, RYCEY, TCS.NS, TECHM.NS, WMT | defense, India, industrials, small caps, technology, Trade Policy | - | Gymkhana Partners maintains conviction in India's small-cap opportunities despite -6% YTD returns driven by currency headwinds. The fund's concentrated portfolio benefits from India's domestic growth resilience, defense indigenization trends, and structural reforms. With 13.2% compound annual returns since 2013, the managers see continued upside from undervalued companies serving the world's fastest-growing major economy. |
| Jul 1 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | asset allocation, Fed policy, Market Timing, Rate Cuts, rebalancing, Valuations | - | Fed Chair Powell's warning about elevated stock valuations sparked investor concerns, but the letter argues against market timing. Despite the S&P 500 trading 20% above historical averages, expensive stocks often get pricier. The recommended approach is systematic rebalancing rather than attempting to time market peaks, maintaining long-term focus over short-term valuation concerns. |
| Jan 4 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | AI, Fed policy, Markets, tariffs, technology, Trade Policy | - | Markets surged in Q2 2025 despite trade policy volatility, with S&P 500 up 10.57% and Nasdaq gaining 17.75%. Technology leadership drove gains while tariff uncertainty created initial weakness before policy pause triggered historic rally. Fed maintains cautious stance with two rate cuts planned amid mixed economic signals and AI sector strength supporting market momentum. |
| Oct 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | Historical Returns, interest rates, Market Highs, tax policy, Trade Policy | - | Markets continued their upward momentum in Q3 2025 with the S&P 500 gaining 8.12%, supported by favorable tax legislation, trade deals, and Fed rate cuts. Despite reaching new all-time highs, historical data from 1926-2024 shows that record highs are not predictive of poor future returns, with post-high performance actually slightly outpacing average returns. |
| Jul 4 2023 | 2023 Q2 | VBTLX, VOO, VTIAX | diversification, Dollar, international, Trade Policy, value | - | Q2 2025 demonstrated diversification's value as international stocks outperformed during dollar weakness and trade volatility. Despite tariff-induced market swings, global diversification protected portfolios. With ongoing uncertainty around trade policy, rates, and AI evolution, the firm maintains its conviction that broad diversification across geographies and asset classes remains the best defense against unpredictable markets. |
| Apr 4 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | diversification, international, REITs, tariffs, value | - | Sparrow Wealth Management demonstrates diversification's value during Q1 2025's tariff-driven volatility. While US stocks declined over 4%, international value stocks gained over 10%. The firm warns against portfolio adjustments based on news flow, emphasizing that global diversification has protected clients from tariff-related market turbulence and continues to provide downside protection. |
| Jan 12 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 7 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 4 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilIran's closure of the Straits of Hormuz has caused the largest global energy disruption since WWII, with oil prices rising 68% in March. The blockade threatens 20% of global energy exports and exposes vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. Resolution depends on geopolitical negotiations between the US and Iran. |
Energy Geopolitics Supply Chain Inflation Crisis |
GeopoliticsThe US/Israeli attack on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation has created unprecedented geopolitical tensions. Trump's aggressive foreign policy including capturing Maduro and threatening to annex territories has destabilized traditional alliances and exposed cracks in NATO. The situation remains fluid and binary with significant implications for global stability. |
Iran Trump NATO Military Conflict | |
SemiconductorsTaiwan's dependence on LNG for 40% of grid power, with a third coming from Qatar, creates vulnerability for semiconductor production. The Gulf crisis threatens helium supplies critical for chip manufacturing. Any power rationing in Taiwan would have knock-on effects for the US technology sector's AI revolution. |
Taiwan LNG AI Technology Supply Chain | |
InflationEnergy disruption is creating broad inflationary pressures through multiple channels including higher consumer energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and fertilizer shortages affecting spring planting season. The crisis threatens to force central banks to raise interest rates, further dampening economic activity. |
Energy Food Central Banks Consumer Supply Chain | |
FertilizersA third of the world's fertilizers pass through the Straits of Hormuz, and the crisis is coinciding with Northern Hemisphere spring planting season. This disruption is likely to feed through into food inflation in several months, creating additional economic pressures beyond energy costs. |
Agriculture Food Supply Chain Seasonal Crisis | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager discusses AI monetization progress at Alphabet with strong third-quarter results driven by Google Cloud growing over 30% year-over-year supported by rapid adoption of AI training and inference services. Gemini platform enhancements including lower-cost inference options were well received by customers and analysts. |
Cloud Infrastructure Monetization Training Inference |
GLP1Eli Lilly delivered strong performance driven by GLP-1 franchises Mounjaro and Zepbound where sales more than doubled year-over-year. Manager believes demand for GLP-1 treatments continues to outpace supply with additional indications on the horizon, positioning Lilly for sustained revenue and cash-flow growth over the coming decade. |
Diabetes Obesity Pharmaceuticals Growth Pipeline | |
StreamingNetflix faced headwinds from investor concerns around near-term subscriber growth and rising content spending, with slower net subscriber additions guided after recent price increases. The proposed Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition introduces concerns about competing bids, regulatory approval, and integration challenges for a company that has never executed a transaction of this scale. |
Content Subscribers Consolidation Competition M&A | |
CloudCoreWeave shares declined despite revenue growing more than 40% year-over-year, with results slightly below elevated investor expectations due to elongated GPU delivery lead times and slower enterprise AI workload ramp. Manager believes CoreWeave's purpose-built infrastructure is uniquely positioned within high-performance cloud compute market with differentiated architecture and strategic partnerships. |
GPU Infrastructure Enterprise Computing Partnerships | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIMarkets have become obsessed with AI leading to productivity and profitability surge since ChatGPT release. Largest companies investing gargantuan sums, creating extraordinary market cap increases like Nvidia rising from $308 billion to $4.4 trillion. Any disappointment on AI would leave markets vulnerable. |
Artificial Intelligence Productivity Technology Nvidia ChatGPT |
InflationGlobal markets are in classic inflationary boom with loose fiscal and monetary conditions. Every month over last four years inflation has been above Fed's 2% target. Governments risk printing money to pay deficits, effectively defaulting by debasing currency. |
Federal Reserve Central Banks Monetary Policy Currency Fiscal Policy | |
GoldGold has risen 47% year to date, reflecting dollar weakness and serving as haven against potential European sovereign bond blow up. Strong performance indicates market complacency and concerns about government debt sustainability. |
Haven Asset Dollar Weakness Sovereign Risk Currency Safe Haven | |
BuybacksS&P companies generating excess cashflow with much returned to shareholders through share buybacks. Combined with retail flows, $7-8 billion flows into US market daily. Market resembles cash machine recycling cash back into itself. |
Share Repurchases Cashflow Liquidity Market Dynamics Capital Allocation | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIOrganizations must prioritize AI investments to avoid obsolescence, with hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft redirecting infrastructure spending toward AI initiatives. AI promises cost reductions and technological breakthroughs while displacing human labor and unlocking novel efficiencies. The current AI spending dynamic is backed by robust cash flows rather than debt, enabling sustained commitment and tremendous agility. |
Data Centers Cloud Semiconductors Technology Infrastructure |
SemiconductorsThe manager executed a rotation from Micron to the iShares Semiconductor ETF and added Lam Research, viewing the semiconductor sector as benefiting from AI infrastructure spending. While acknowledging some circular spending concerns within the broader semiconductor industry, these bubble worries are viewed as distant and not a pressing crisis. |
Semi Equipment Memory Technology AI | |
| 2025 Q1 |
InflationBoth Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index showed meaningful signs of cooling, with CPI declining 0.1% in June 2024 marking the first monthly drop since May 2020. Core CPI rose just 0.1% in June, the smallest increase since August 2021, while PPI rose modestly by 0.1% in May 2025. |
CPI PPI Disinflation Core Prices |
Trade PolicyNewly imposed tariffs on select imports, particularly in tech and renewable energy sectors, reshaped investor expectations. Markets largely interpreted these trade policy shifts as manageable and potentially stimulative to domestic production in the medium term, though they introduced pockets of volatility. |
Tariffs Imports Tech Renewable Domestic | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%, reflecting ongoing cautious stance amid persistent inflationary pressures. Chair Powell emphasized requiring greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent before considering rate cuts. |
Fed Interest Powell Monetary Policy | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Trade PolicyTariffs present complex challenges as their benefits are seldom universally distributed, elevating costs and disrupting supply chains. The Trump administration has acted decisively on tariffs and the DOGE initiative, creating operational paralysis for enterprises across sectors. While addressing trade inequities is justifiable, the rapid implementation has proven disruptive to market stability. |
Tariffs DOGE Supply Chain Trade Policy |
United StatesThe US exemplifies the capitalist paradigm more than any other nation, hosting the world's largest and most profitable corporations. American businesses maintain singular focus on shareholder value with the most extensive financial markets globally. The Trump administration's pro-business orientation and strategy to address budget deficits through expenditure reductions and leveraging natural resources reinforces long-term appeal. |
Capitalism Shareholder Value Wall Street Pro-business Budget | |
South AfricaAlpine maintains measured restraint with client allocations deliberately underweighted in South Africa. The nation continues experiencing persistent capital outflows driven by political instability, economic stagnation, and policies that don't prioritize investor interests. Even under favorable GNU conditions, the ZAR reached only R17 to USD, casting doubt on currency recovery aspirations. |
Capital Outflows Political Instability GNU ZAR Underweight | |
| 2024 Q3 |
IndiaIndia is the world's fastest-growing major economy, on track to become the third-largest economy by 2028. The domestic consumer-driven growth model provides resilience against U.S. tariffs, with goods exports to the U.S. representing only 2.2% of GDP. India's pursuit of free trade deals with non-U.S. partners and deepening domestic capital markets support continued growth. |
Domestic consumption Economic growth Trade diversification Capital markets Demographics |
DefenseThe fund has increased exposure to defense and aerospace companies benefiting from India's indigenization of defense procurement. Defense/aerospace businesses now account for roughly 6% of capital, including advanced manufacturers and defense electronics suppliers. Companies are winning significant export contracts from international partners like Airbus and Rolls-Royce. |
Indigenization Aerospace Export contracts Electronics Manufacturing | |
Trade PolicyU.S. tariffs on Indian goods have escalated to 50% on certain categories, but the impact is manageable given limited exposure. The tariff threats may backfire by eroding U.S.-India partnership, while accelerating India's pursuit of alternative trade relationships with the UK, UAE, and potentially the EU. |
Tariffs Trade relations Diversification Geopolitics Partnership | |
| 2024 Q2 |
RatesThe Fed reduced its target federal funds rate by 0.25% on September 17. Rate cuts tend to make equity investors optimistic as they figure lower interest rates will reduce borrowing costs, goosing economic activity and hopefully boosting corporate earnings and stock prices. |
Interest Rates Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Rate Cuts Economic Activity |
Risk AppetiteFed Chair Jerome Powell's comment that equity prices are fairly highly valued raised questions among investors about whether stocks are too expensive and if prices are about to drop. The letter discusses how high valuations may dampen long-term returns but notes that selling when stocks are pricey has often been a huge mistake. |
Valuations Market Timing Investment Strategy Risk Management Asset Allocation | |
| 2023 Q4 |
Trade PolicyThe White House's new trade policy began in earnest on April 2, causing initial market volatility with global markets reacting negatively overnight. A 90-day pause on specific tariffs announced April 9 led to the S&P 500's largest one-day gain in 17 years. Continued tariff discussions between the U.S. and China remained a focal point throughout the quarter. |
Tariffs China Trade Policy Volatility |
AIArtificial intelligence-related stocks provided underlying strength to the market rally in June. A well-received quarterly corporate report from a mega-cap AI chipmaker helped drive market sentiment. The recovery in AI-related stocks contributed to both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-time highs during the quarter. |
Chipmaker Technology Semiconductors Growth | |
| 2023 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe potential for widespread tariffs represents real risk to slowing down the US economy and increased risk for inflation to reignite as importers pass along increased costs to consumers. The global stock market faced a tariff tantrum in March that gave back most gains earned through mid-February. |
Tariffs Inflation Trade |
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