Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 30th June 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
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| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
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Octahedron delivered strong August 2026 performance with long-only strategy up mid-high-20s YTD and long-short up mid-teens YTD (gross basis), recovering from a challenging 1Q'26 when correlated sell-offs in software, internet, and payments drove the long-only strategy to approximately -15% at its trough. The manager demonstrated effective risk management by calling the bottom for infrastructure software and consumer internet in March, sizing up exposure in Snowflake, Rubrik, Samsara, and Carvana, then reducing semiconductor exposure in June after hearing early trouble signals. This defensive positioning limited July losses to low-single-digits. The manager now believes semiconductors have bottomed and increased exposure to memory, compute, and semi-cap equipment based on strong recent earnings, demand visibility to 2028, supply constraints, and AI-driven hyperscaler capex. Carvana represents a top-five position with a thesis centered on disrupting the $1T US used car market through operational efficiency gains, accelerating unit growth, and regulatory tailwinds from FTC pricing transparency rules. The manager projects Carvana could double over two years as the market recognizes durable high-30s percent unit growth extending to 2028.
Octahedron employs active risk management and tactical sector rotation to capitalize on technology sector opportunities, currently positioned for a semiconductor rebound while maintaining concentrated positions in high-conviction e-commerce and infrastructure software names that demonstrate operational improvement and durable growth.
Manager expects semiconductors to rebound strongly for the remainder of 2026 based on recent earnings, demand visibility to 2028, supply constraints, and AI-driven demand. Carvana is expected to maintain mid-to-high 30% unit growth for the next 3+ years, reaching 1.5m units sold in 2028 and approximately $6b in EBITDA, with the stock potentially doubling over the next two years. The tone is confident and constructive, with the manager pleased with stock-picking and risk-management processes as they progress through 2026.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2 2026 | 2026 Q2 | CVNA, IOT, RBRK, SNOW | AI, Cloud, E-Commerce, Long/Short, risk management, semiconductors, technology | - | Octahedron recovered from 1Q'26 technology sector sell-off through tactical risk management, calling the bottom in infrastructure software and consumer internet in March before defensively reducing semiconductors in June. Strong August performance driven by infrastructure software positions and Carvana, now a top-five holding disrupting the $1T used car market. Manager recently increased semiconductor exposure across memory, compute, and equipment, believing the sector has bottomed with strong AI-driven demand visibility to 2028. |
| Oct 14 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, AVGO, DASH, GOOGL, HUBS, INTC, MDB, META, MSFT, NFLX, NU, NVDA, ORCL, SHOP, TEAM, TSLA, TSM, UBER, WDAY | AI, Cloud, E-Commerce, growth, payments, semiconductors, software, technology | - | Octahedron capitalizes on the AI transformation through concentrated positions in Google, Nubank, Nvidia, and MongoDB. Hyperscaler capex is accelerating with multi-year commitments while enterprise AI adoption reaches board-level priority. Memory pricing inflection appears durable through 2026. Despite tariff and employment headwinds, the structural shift to AI-first business models creates significant opportunities for positioned technology companies. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ABNB, AMZN, APP, BKNG, CART, CPNG, CVNA, DASH, GOOGL, GRAB, MELI, META, NFLX, PINS, RDDT, ROKU, SNAP, SNOW, UBER, W | Advertising, AI, Cloud, E-Commerce, payments, semiconductors, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | Octahedron focuses on internet-scale businesses benefiting from AI infrastructure demand despite trade policy uncertainty. Portfolio concentrated in Snowflake, Amazon, Uber, and Coupang. AI demand remains insatiable with 50x token processing growth, while sovereign AI buildouts represent $1.5 trillion opportunity. Companies transitioning to usage-based AI pricing models amid continued digital transformation. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ABNB, AMZN, BKNG, CPNG, CRM, CVNA, DIS, GOOGL, GTLB, MELI, META, NET, NFLX, NOW, PLTR, SNOW, UBER, W, WDAY, ZS | AI, E-Commerce, growth, Internet, payments, semiconductors, software, technology | - | Octahedron Capital targets internet-scale businesses with core positions in Snowflake, Amazon, Uber, and Coupang. The firm sees AI commoditization as a major opportunity for application software companies with proprietary data advantages. Strong momentum in e-commerce platforms and continued hyperscaler investment support their technology-focused thesis despite macro headwinds from inflation and policy uncertainty. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, CART, CPNG, DASH, DIS, GOOGL, GRAB, LYFT, META, NFLX, PINS, RDDT, ROKU, SNAP, SNOW, SPOT, UBER, WBD, WMT, YELP | AI, Cloud, Digital, E-Commerce, growth, Internet, semiconductors, technology | - | Octahedron Capital targets internet-scale businesses benefiting from AI adoption and digital transformation. Their portfolio focuses on cloud infrastructure, e-commerce platforms, and AI-enabled software companies showing strong growth despite macro headwinds. Key drivers include accelerating AI productivity gains, cloud migration trends, and market share expansion in on-demand services and digital advertising platforms. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AMD, AMZN, AVGO, CART, CVNA, DASH, DIS, GOOGL, LYFT, MA, MELI, NFLX, NU, NVDA, SNOW, SPOT, TSLA, UBER, V, W | AI, Cloud, consumer, E-Commerce, growth, payments, semiconductors, technology | - | Octahedron Capital targets internet-scale businesses benefiting from AI infrastructure buildout. Hyperscalers show 26-32% growth driven by AI demand while consumer spending remains pressured with trade-down behavior. Semiconductor demand broadening beyond cloud providers. Portfolio positioned for continued technology adoption cycles despite near-term consumer headwinds and emerging AI security risks. |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jun 1 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AAPL, ABNB, ADYEY, AMAT, AMD, AMZN, ASML, AVGO, BKNG, CPNG, CRWD, CVNA, DASH, DBRX, DIS, ETSY, GOOGL, INTC, KVYO, LRCX, MA, MELI, MSFT, NFLX, NU, NVDA, PTON, SNOW, SPOT, TSM, UBER, V, W | AI, Cloud, E-Commerce, payments, semiconductors, Streaming, technology, Travel | - | Octahedron sees generative AI driving a fundamental computing platform shift benefiting their internet-scale portfolio companies. While consumer spending shows caution with trade-down behavior, travel and e-commerce remain resilient. Cloud platforms are stabilizing after optimization headwinds. The semiconductor ecosystem faces massive AI demand. Material GenAI upside expected in 2024-25 as software TAM expands through AI adoption. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | Google Drive HTML wrapper for Octahedron Capital's Q1 2023 quarterly letter titled 'A Few Things We Learned.' The actual PDF content is not accessible through this viewer interface, preventing extraction of investment thesis, portfolio details, or market analysis. |
| Dec 31 2022 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 12 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
SemiconductorsManager believes semiconductors may have bottomed out after reducing exposure in June due to early trouble signals. Recent earnings from large semiconductor companies, demand visibility to 2028, supply-side constraints, expected strength in hyperscaler capex, frontier model breakthroughs, and emergence of US open weight models support a potential strong rebound. Exposure increased in memory, compute, and semi-cap equipment across strategies. |
Memory Compute Semi Equipment Hyperscaler AI |
E-commerceCarvana is disrupting the ~$1T US used car industry by fixing a broken experience and building a scaled machine to win share in a fragmented market. The company is one of the last remaining retail areas not well penetrated by e-commerce. Manager scaled up position over last 6 months as execution missteps from 2H25 are remedied, leading to re-acceleration in unit growth and profitability recovery. |
Used Autos Retail Digital Market Share | |
CloudManager called the bottom for infrastructure software in March 2026 and sized up exposure in that area. Positions added include Snowflake, Rubrik, and Samsara, which contributed to double-digit month-over-month performance in August 2026. Infrastructure software was part of the correlated sell-off in 1Q'26 but has since recovered strongly. |
Infrastructure Software SaaS Enterprise Software | |
AIAI is referenced in context of hyperscaler capex spend supporting semiconductor demand, frontier models making new breakthroughs, and emergence of US open weight models. Manager also discusses longer-term potential for physical AI in Carvana's operations through humanoid and specialized robots that could automate inspection and reconditioning centers, though this is characterized as theoretical at present. |
Frontier Models Physical AI Robotics Automation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI is driving unprecedented demand across infrastructure, software, and applications. Enterprise AI adoption is accelerating with board-level priority, though moving from proof-of-concept to production remains challenging. AI agents and inference workloads represent massive emerging opportunities. |
Inference Agents Enterprise Infrastructure Models |
SemiconductorsAI infrastructure boom is driving strong demand for GPUs, networking chips, and memory. Blackwell transition proceeding despite delays, with supply constraints persisting. Memory pricing inflection appears structurally durable through 2026. |
GPUs Memory Networking Blackwell Supply | |
CloudHyperscaler capex accelerating with multi-year commitments extending through 2028. Oracle seeing unprecedented demand with $455 billion RPO. Cloud infrastructure spending shifting toward AI workloads and inference capabilities. |
Hyperscaler Capex Infrastructure Inference Demand | |
E-commerceOn-demand delivery showing accelerating growth with improving unit economics. Cross-border e-commerce expanding rapidly in emerging markets. AI integration beginning to transform search and discovery experiences. |
Delivery Marketplace Cross-border Discovery AI | |
PaymentsDigital payments growth remains robust across emerging markets. Fintech players expanding lending and deposit products. Consumer credit metrics stable but following employment trends closely. |
Digital Fintech Lending Deposits Credit | |
AdvertisingDigital advertising facing disruption from AI search and social media shift. Traditional search traffic declining while AI-driven discovery gaining traction. Performance advertising showing strength across platforms. |
Search Social Performance Discovery AI | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI infrastructure demand remains insatiable with companies processing 480 trillion tokens monthly, up 50x year-over-year. ServiceNow expects AI products to reach $1 billion ACV by end of 2026, while companies are transitioning from seat-based to usage-based AI pricing models. AI agents are creating 4x more databases than humans, fundamentally changing software development workflows. |
Infrastructure Tokens Agents Usage-based Pricing |
SemiconductorsAI semiconductor demand described as insatiable with customers requesting all available capacity. Export restrictions on China lifted for most countries except China, while sovereign AI buildouts represent $1.5 trillion opportunity globally. Manufacturing yields for Blackwell systems have significantly improved with major hyperscalers deploying nearly 1,000 racks per week. |
Blackwell Sovereign Yields Export Capacity | |
E-commerceOn-demand delivery maintained steady mid-teens global GMV growth with Uber's delivery business achieving 3.7% EBITDA margins. DoorDash acquired Deliveroo for $2.9 billion to expand into Western Europe and Middle East. MercadoLibre lowered free shipping thresholds in Brazil from $14.15 to $3.40, absorbing the financial impact to drive volume. |
Delivery GMV Margins Acquisitions Shipping | |
AdvertisingDigital advertising platforms are building full-stack AI solutions with Meta seeing 7% increase in Facebook time spent and 35% on Threads from AI improvements. Reddit advertising revenue grew 61% year-over-year to $359 million with broad-based strength across objectives and verticals. Uber's advertising business crossed $1.5 billion run rate growing 60% year-over-year. |
Full-stack AI Revenue Growth Platforms | |
CloudCloud spending rationalization continues post-boom era with companies showing heightened focus on value amid economic uncertainty. Databricks and Snowflake are aggressively pursuing transactional database market through acquisitions, with AI agents creating new database architecture needs. MongoDB pushed back against Postgres competition emphasizing its integrated platform advantages. |
Rationalization Databases Acquisitions Architecture Competition | |
Trade PolicyTrump's reciprocal tariffs announced April 2nd created supply chain uncertainty, with 125% tariffs on China but 90-day pause for other countries at 10%. Companies reported customer uncertainty in April around tariffs and macro environment, though some frontloading of purchases was observed. Retailers are working to minimize tariff impact but cannot fully absorb cost pressure given narrow margins. |
Tariffs China Uncertainty Frontloading Margins | |
PaymentsPayment networks continue seeing strong volume growth with no material impact from tariffs. Consumer loan charge-offs remain stable pre-tariffs. NuBank dominates LATAM with 118 million users while still under-optimizing margins due to growth prospects, with gross profit market share of just 5% despite 30% market share of principality. |
Volume Stable LATAM Under-optimizing Market-share | |
| 2025 Q1 |
AIAgentic AI emerged as the dominant theme with reasoning models like DeepSeek-R1 and OpenAI o3 enabling AI agents to complete complex multi-step tasks. The commoditization of LLMs is accelerating AI applications growth while reducing inference costs, creating opportunities for application software companies with proprietary data. |
Agents Reasoning LLMs Inference Commoditization |
E-commerceOn-demand delivery platforms showed accelerating growth globally with companies like Uber, DoorDash, and regional players expanding into new verticals. Travel recovery continued with strong room night growth, while e-commerce companies focused on operational efficiency and automation to drive margins. |
Delivery Marketplaces Automation Travel Logistics | |
SemiconductorsDeepSeek raised questions about AI infrastructure buildout scale, but semiconductor companies remained bullish on reasoning models requiring 100x more compute. Memory pricing improved ahead of schedule while hyperscalers committed to growing capex spend near-term despite efficiency gains. |
Memory AI Infrastructure Capex Efficiency Reasoning | |
CloudCloud spending rationalization continued post-boom era with companies focusing on efficiency and ROI. The commoditization of LLMs benefits application software companies while data gravity and proprietary enterprise data become key differentiators in the AI era. |
SaaS Efficiency Data Enterprise Rationalization | |
PaymentsFintech platforms with product velocity showed strong propensity to build comprehensive financial services platforms. Digital banks in emerging markets demonstrated impressive user growth and deposit accumulation, while traditional payment networks continued expanding their addressable markets. |
Fintech Digital Banking Platforms Emerging Markets Financial Services | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AIGenerative AI is driving significant productivity improvements across software development and enterprise applications. Companies are seeing measurable ROI from AI investments, with GitHub Copilot accounting for over 40% of GitHub revenue growth and Microsoft reporting billions in AI infrastructure revenue. AI is accelerating cloud migrations and enabling new usage-based pricing models. |
GenAI Copilot Productivity Cloud Migration Usage-based |
CloudHyperscale cloud providers are reaccelerating growth driven by AI infrastructure investments and optimization cycles easing. AWS, Azure, and GCP are all showing sequential improvement with AI workloads becoming a meaningful revenue driver. Cloud migration is being accelerated by AI tools that can modernize legacy applications. |
Hyperscale Reacceleration Infrastructure Migration Optimization | |
E-commerceOn-demand delivery and e-commerce platforms continue showing double-digit growth despite economic headwinds. Companies like DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Meituan are expanding into new verticals and geographies while improving unit economics. Cross-platform partnerships are driving larger basket sizes and new customer acquisition. |
On-demand Delivery Cross-border Unit Economics Partnerships | |
SemiconductorsAI demand continues to drive semiconductor growth with NVIDIA's Blackwell platform seeing demand well above supply. Memory markets are on an upward trajectory with HBM sales growing over 250% year-over-year. Custom AI accelerators are ramping aggressively and could reach 20-25% of the total accelerator market. |
AI Chips Memory HBM Custom Silicon Blackwell | |
AdvertisingDigital advertising platforms are leveraging AI to improve ad performance and targeting. Google's AI-driven tools are delivering 14% more conversions for advertisers, while platforms like Reddit and Pinterest are expanding internationally and improving monetization through better ad products. |
Digital Ads AI Targeting Performance International Monetization | |
StreamingStreaming platforms are building scale and improving monetization through ad-supported tiers and pricing optimization. Netflix is developing in-house ad tech, Disney sees pricing leverage from content portfolio growth, and platforms are testing new discovery interfaces to create more advertising surfaces. |
Ad-supported Pricing Power Discovery Scale Monetization | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIAI infrastructure spending is driving hyperscaler reacceleration with training and GPU demand leading growth. Enterprise AI applications remain mostly experimental with ROI questions emerging. Compound AI systems are becoming necessary for production-quality applications. |
Training Infrastructure GPUs Enterprise ROI |
CloudHyperscalers continue to reaccelerate with AWS, Azure, and GCP showing 26-32% growth driven by AI-related infrastructure demand. Supply constraints for GPU capacity are limiting growth potential across providers. |
Hyperscalers Infrastructure Growth Capacity Demand | |
PaymentsPayment volumes showing stable-to-slowing trends globally with cross-border transactions remaining a bright spot driven by e-commerce growth offsetting travel weakness in Asia. Fintech companies are achieving impressive scale despite market headwinds. |
Volumes Cross-border E-commerce Scale Fintech | |
E-commerceOn-demand delivery continues mid-teens growth globally with grocery penetration expanding. Amazon improving margins while maintaining delivery speed improvements. Travel showing resilient but normalizing demand patterns. |
Delivery Grocery Margins Travel Growth | |
SemiconductorsNvidia maintaining full-stack dominance with 3-year roadmap while demand broadens to enterprises and sovereign clouds. Equipment players expect 2H acceleration with strong 2025 setup. Smartphone recovery remains gradual. |
Nvidia Enterprise Equipment Recovery Demand | |
Trade DownConsumers continue scrutinizing discretionary purchases with accelerated private brand growth and focus on value. Low-to-moderate income consumers remain squeezed with some early signs of improvement in specific categories like apparel. |
Discretionary Value Private Brand Income Apparel | |
| 2023 Q3 |
AIGenerative AI is driving a platform shift in software and enabling new applications. The industry is transitioning to accelerated computing with data centers making a platform shift from general purpose to accelerated computing. AI investments are capex-heavy but expand software TAM through LLMs enabling software to eat OpEx. |
Generative AI LLMs Accelerated Computing Data Centers Software |
CloudCloud platforms continue to see cost optimizations outside of AI but largely stabilized in late Q2. Public cloud growth stabilized from April-August as cost optimizations slowed. Material GenAI upside is expected to be a 2024-25+ story with recovery and incremental GenAI demand potentially driving 2H reacceleration. |
Cost Optimization Azure AWS GCP Stabilization | |
E-commerceAmazon is seeing clear cost efficiencies in fulfillment and transport after its big buildout with regionalization delivering significant improvements. Same-day or next-day deliveries have quadrupled versus 2019. Buy with Prime is showing promising early uptake with 25% conversion increases for merchants. |
Fulfillment Regionalization Prime Delivery Speed Conversion | |
PaymentsConsumer spend is stable but everyone is cautious with payments volumes relatively stable in Q2 through July. E-commerce and travel saw strength while fintech managements continue to make progress on efficiency and profitability. Next gen fintech platforms continue to grow as they crank the flywheel. |
Consumer Spend Fintech Efficiency Profitability Growth | |
SemiconductorsNvidia is driving the ecosystem around accelerated computing for Gen AI with hyperscaler capex supercharging data center growth. AMD is eager to capture share of Gen-AI hardware while Intel sees AI taking near-term wallet share over traditional server compute. TSMC is planning for 50% AI processor demand growth over the next 5 years. |
Nvidia Data Center AI Processors Hyperscaler Capex | |
TravelTravel demand has remained robust with summer travel across most regions picking up. Online travel agencies and full-service airlines are seeing strong leisure travel demand. Cross-border travel continues to show strength reaching 154% of 2019 levels in Q2. |
Leisure Travel Cross-border OTA Airlines Recovery | |
StreamingNetflix is starting to see benefits of paid sharing flow through to subscribers with 5.9M paid net additions in Q2. Disney and Charter created a new framework for future linear carriage renewals while Apple passed 1 billion paid subscriptions and Spotify raised prices in the US for the first time ever. |
Paid Sharing Subscriptions Price Increases Linear TV Content | |
Trade DownCustomers continue to trade down and seek value in their purchases with new customers having household income over $125,000. The weakness is especially pronounced for the lower-income consumer who is still feeling inflationary pressure and has depleted savings. |
Value Seeking Lower Income Inflation Savings Consumer Pressure |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
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| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
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| CVNA | In a world dominated by AI headlines, it is easy to forget that there are potentially excellent investments, such as Carvana, available in the public market these days. Our investors might also remember that we interviewed Carvana CEO, Ernie Garcia, at our 2025 LP meeting. Carvana is a top five position for Octahedron as of August 31st. The story of Carvana has always been simple: The company is disrupting a ~$1T used car industry in the US, fixing a broken experience, building a scaled machine and winning share in a fragmented industry digitizing one of the last remaining areas of retail that has not been well penetrated by e-commerce. We have scaled up the position in Carvana over the last 6 months because we believe missteps in execution from 2H25 are now mostly remedied, which is now leading to a re-acceleration in unit growth as well as a recovery in profitability. Carvana is achieving all-time low labor hours per unit of refurbishment with new in-house technology around employee shift scheduling and overtime management, as well as centralizing many planning functions. Production is the limiting factor to growth, not demand. With approximately 40 million used cars sold per year, Carvana's ability to grow is not limited by market size, but by their ability to scale their production as fast as reasonable and responsibly. We have seen a re-acceleration in unit growth using proprietary 3P data, that we expect to continue into 2027. The company shared that in their top two production regions in 2Q, production growth / unit growth was 57% / 54% vs. a consolidated unit growth of 38%. Maintaining mid-to-high 30%-unit growth for the next 3+ years drives our variant perception (vs consensus that models down growth to high teens within a few years). With the FTC starting to enforce its rules around unfair and deceptive pricing with greater rigor, other dealers are now forced to disclose all fees at the advertised price. CVNA has never charged these sort of up-charge fees (part of the reason they win!), so this has no impact to CVNA, but has resulted in share gains as well as industry price appreciation. Units are likely to grow in the mid-to-high 30% range for the next 3+ years, leading to 1.5m units sold in '28 (vs. consensus of 1.2m) and ~$6b in EBITDA (vs. consensus estimates of $4.6b). If we are correct in our analysis, then we estimate that the stock is likely to double over the next two years as the market realizes the durability of Carvana's 'higher growth for longer.' Longer term, (and not our thesis today), physical AI could be a compelling source of advantage for Carvana: As humanoid and specialized robots proliferate, there will be more of the IRC that can be automated. While this is still theoretical at present, we can imagine a future where there is a 'Dark IRC' that will need minimal to no human involvement to produce used cars at-scale. |
| SNOW | We called the bottom for infrastructure software and consumer internet (and sized up exposure in those areas) in March'26, and during our 1Q'26 update call to LPs. By playing defense in July, combined with the long-exposure added in infrastructure software (Snowflake, Rubrik and Samsara) and consumer internet (Carvana), in 1Q'26, the long-only strategy showed double-digits month-over-month performance in August 2026. |
| RBRK | We called the bottom for infrastructure software and consumer internet (and sized up exposure in those areas) in March'26, and during our 1Q'26 update call to LPs. By playing defense in July, combined with the long-exposure added in infrastructure software (Snowflake, Rubrik and Samsara) and consumer internet (Carvana), in 1Q'26, the long-only strategy showed double-digits month-over-month performance in August 2026. |
| IOT | We called the bottom for infrastructure software and consumer internet (and sized up exposure in those areas) in March'26, and during our 1Q'26 update call to LPs. By playing defense in July, combined with the long-exposure added in infrastructure software (Snowflake, Rubrik and Samsara) and consumer internet (Carvana), in 1Q'26, the long-only strategy showed double-digits month-over-month performance in August 2026. |
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