Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Open Insights Capital maintains a barbell portfolio strategy, long unfavored sectors while short AI bubble stocks. The manager views current AI valuations as extreme, with companies trading at 65x revenue compared to 10x during the dot-com peak, creating systemic risk when reality falls short of expectations. In oil markets, OPEC+ abandoned production restraint, initiating a price war that drove inventory builds and 18% price declines. However, the manager believes oversupply concerns are overdone, with builds smaller than expected and low prices killing US shale growth while demand continues rising. Portfolio holdings include Occidental Petroleum, expected to benefit from consolidation given attractive synergy opportunities, and Peloton, transitioning from fitness equipment to a broader health platform targeting the $7 trillion wellness market. The manager expects continued market bifurcation until AI valuations correct and fundamental improvements in oil and fitness sectors drive performance. Key risks include AI bubble bursting and prolonged oil price weakness, while catalysts include supply-demand rebalancing and sector consolidation.
The market exhibits extreme bifurcation with AI companies trading at bubble valuations while quality businesses in unfavored sectors like oil and fitness offer compelling risk-adjusted returns through fundamental improvement and consolidation catalysts.
Manager expects continued market bifurcation between AI euphoria and value opportunities in unfavored sectors, with eventual correction in AI valuations when growth fails to meet expectations while oil and fitness investments benefit from improving fundamentals and catalysts.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26 2026 | 2025 Q4 | OXY, PTON | AI, Bubble, energy, Fitness, Long/Short, oil, valuation | - | Manager views current AI valuations as extreme bubble territory, comparing companies trading at 65x revenue to dot-com era excesses. Believes AI infrastructure is being built ahead of actual technology readiness, creating conditions for a bust following the capex boom when reality falls short of expectations. OPEC+ abandoned market management strategy and initiated price war, leading to inventory builds and 18% oil price decline. Manager believes current oversupply concerns are overdone, with builds smaller than expected and low prices killing US shale growth while global demand continues rising. Peloton transitioning from pure fitness equipment platform to broader health span platform targeting $7 trillion wellness market versus $6 billion home exercise market. Company launching AI-powered products and cross-training equipment while raising subscription prices and improving financial metrics. |
| Jul 25 2025 | 2025 Q2 | OXY, SCR CN | energy markets, fiscal deficits, inflation, Macro, tariffs |
MEG CN SCR CN OXY |
The commentary centers on macro-driven volatility caused by tariffs, fiscal excess, and geopolitical brinkmanship. Management highlights trade friction, rising deficits, and energy market dislocations as forces reshaping asset prices. Growth optimism is acknowledged, but inflation and commodity intensity are positioned as unavoidable consequences. |
| Apr 21 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 25 2025 | 2024 Q4 | OXY | - | - | |
| Oct 22 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 15 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 12 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
FitnessPeloton transitioning from pure fitness equipment platform to broader health span platform targeting $7 trillion wellness market versus $6 billion home exercise market. Company launching AI-powered products and cross-training equipment while raising subscription prices and improving financial metrics. |
Wellness Subscription Equipment Health Platform | |
OilOil markets disrupted by closure of Straits of Hormuz affecting 20% of global production. Prices surged from $70 to $119.50 before retreating to $90. Market may be tighter than commonly believed despite IEA projections of surplus. Oil represents cheapest major asset class globally, trading at near-record lows relative to gold. |
Crude Brent WTI Hormuz Supply | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Macro |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Nelson Wu | MEG CN | MEG Energy Corp. | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | acquisition, Canada, cash flow, Oil sands, takeover, valuation | Login |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Nelson Wu | SCR CN | Strathcona Resources Ltd. | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | acquisition, Bid Strategy, Canada, consolidation, Oil sands, Reserves | Login |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Nelson Wu | OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | Energy | Integrated Oil & Gas | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | carbon capture, DAC, energy, EOR, Permian, tax credits | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| OXY | We also hold equity method investments, principally Kraft Heinz and Occidental. We recorded a pre-tax impairment loss of approximately $5.7 billion on our investment in Occidental common stock in the fourth quarter of 2025. |
| PTON | The coming 6 months are critical for this company. After introducing a set of new cross training equipment, the company's embarked on a strategy shift from a pure fitness equipment/subscription platform to a health span platform, one designed to give its customers a healthier and longer life. Since the October launch of new AI powered products, the financial press has published stories about robust demand. PTON ended Q1 with around 2.73M subscribers, and we think it'll end Q2 with ~ 2.69M, which would mean sales of new bikes did fairly well. For 2026, we have Adjusted EBITDA of $500M and FCF around $350M, for a company with a $2.4B market cap today. We think the stock should move higher once PTON demonstrates its equipment is selling well again, and the shares would need to double to match the multiples of its closest competitor. We plan on increasing our position ahead of the quarter's announcement, and believe there's a long runway here. |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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