| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Ophir delivered exceptional performance in FY2026, with the Global Opportunities Fund returning +31.8% net of fees versus its benchmark's +16.0%, driven almost entirely by stock selection rather than sector or geographic allocation. Twenty-one stocks contributed meaningfully to returns, with the largest single contributor adding just 5.3%, demonstrating a repeatable, diversified approach. The long-awaited arrival of market breadth finally materialized, with small caps outperforming mega caps as returns spread beyond the Magnificent 7. The Russell 2000 rose +3.7% in June while the S&P 500 fell -1.0%. Within AI, returns varied dramatically by stack layer: semiconductors and energy infrastructure soared while software applications fell sharply on disruption fears. Ophir maintains roughly index weight in AI, avoiding directional bets on bubble risk. Looking forward, the firm expects breadth to persist supported by falling inflation, ongoing Fed easing effects, tax cuts, and a resilient consumer. The Australian High Conviction Fund struggled with a -4.9% return, hurt by materials sector underweight and software overexposure, which management is actively addressing.
Ophir's outperformance in FY2026 came from pure stock picking across a broad portfolio of idiosyncratic small caps, not from riding the AI wave or making concentrated sector bets.
Ophir expects breadth to continue supporting small-cap performance, driven by falling inflation expectations, ongoing effects from prior Fed easing, tax cuts, and a stronger US consumer. The firm remains cautiously optimistic but acknowledges uncertainty around AI valuations and the need for ROI on massive capex spending. They maintain a balanced approach to AI exposure at roughly index weight, focusing on stock picking across idiosyncratic small caps rather than making concentrated sector bets.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9 2026 | 2026 Q2 | ADBE, AMD, CRM, GEV, INTC, MU, NOW | AI, Breadth, global, semiconductors, small caps, software, stock picking | - | Ophir's +31.8% Global Opportunities Fund return came from pure stock picking across twenty-one winners, not AI exposure. Market breadth finally arrived with small caps outperforming mega caps. Semiconductors and energy infrastructure soared while software applications crashed on AI disruption fears. Ophir holds index weight in AI, betting neither for nor against a bubble. Breadth should continue on falling inflation, Fed easing, and tax cuts. |
| Apr 15 2026 | 2026 Q1 | NVDA, XOM | AI, Australia, Geopolitical, oil, rates, small caps, Valuations | - | Ophir sees Iran war creating temporary small cap opportunities rather than structural risks. Bond market pressure should end conflict within weeks. Small caps offer compelling value with US at 15x P/E and Australian at 13.9x P/E - lowest relative valuations in decades. Nvidia cheaper than ExxonMobil exemplifies sentiment extremes creating potential mispricings for patient capital. |
| Jan 21 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA | earnings, global, Outperformance, small caps, stock picking, technology | - | Ophir delivered strong 2025 performance through pure stock selection, with Global Opportunities Fund returning 25.6% after fees. Despite continued large cap tech dominance, small cap earnings expectations are finally improving relative to large caps for the first time since 2022. This missing catalyst, combined with supportive economic factors, positions small caps for sustained outperformance in 2026. |
| Nov 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Australia, Factors, Fed policy, global, growth, Market Entry, small caps | - | Ophir funds underperformed in November due to growth factor headwinds from shifting Fed rate expectations, not fundamental issues. Growth versus value spread reached 20-year extremes. The manager maintains conviction in growth-focused small cap strategy, viewing temporary factor movements as noise. December recovery already underway as rate cut probabilities normalize. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
Small CapsAfter years of mega-cap dominance, breadth finally arrived in FY2026 with returns spreading across the market including small caps. The Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 500 in June (+3.7% vs -1.0%). Ophir expects breadth to continue driven by falling inflation expectations, Fed easing effects still flowing through, and tax cuts. |
Small Caps Breadth Russell 2000 Outperformance |
AIOphir holds roughly index weight in AI and is not making hero bets for or against a bubble. Returns in 2026 varied dramatically by AI stack layer: energy/electrification up ~33%, chips/memory up ~80%, but software applications down 5%. The fund questions whether there will be ROI on AI capex or if the cake will crumble under its own weight. |
AI Semiconductors Bubble Capex | |
Semiconductor CycleChips and memory delivered exceptional returns in 2026, up roughly 80%, with Micron nearly tripling, Intel up 263%, and AMD up 151%. These companies benefited from scarcity pricing as cloud giants and software firms spent heavily on capex. Micron's recent results suggest the AI theme is not slowing down. |
Semiconductors Memory Capex Scarcity | |
Energy TransitionEnergy and electrification names delivered strong returns in 2026, up about a third, led by companies like GE Vernova at +70%. These infrastructure providers benefited from selling into the AI buildout, capturing margin as sellers of scarce resources rather than buyers. |
Energy Electrification Infrastructure AI | |
Enterprise SoftwareSoftware applications incorporating AI tools were the worst-performing layer of the AI stack in 2026, down 5% overall. Adobe fell 44%, Salesforce 42%, and ServiceNow 38%. Ophir's High Conviction Fund was overweight quality software names and was hit hard on fears of AI disruption in late 2025 and early 2026, though they cut exposure quickly. |
Software SaaS AI Disruption Applications | |
| 2026 Q1 |
OilIran war has caused oil price spike similar to 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Current spike is self-imposed by US and can be wound down through military de-escalation. Oil prices driving inflation concerns and bond yield increases, pressuring Trump administration to limit war duration. |
Iran Geopolitical Inflation Energy |
Small CapsSmall caps better positioned for current oil spike than 2022 due to lower starting valuations and different macro backdrop. US small caps trading at 15x P/E with significant downside protection. Australian small caps particularly cheap at 13.9x P/E, lowest relative to large caps in 20 years. |
Valuations Australia Margin of Safety | |
AINvidia now trades at lower P/E than ExxonMobil despite being the AI infrastructure leader. Market questioning durability of AI capex cycle after pricing Nvidia to perfection at 60x P/E three years ago. Represents potential great mispricing opportunity. |
Nvidia Valuations Technology Semiconductors | |
RatesBond market acting as constraint on Trump policies through rising 10-year yields. Higher rates from oil-driven inflation concerns forcing policy moderation. Rate environment key driver of small cap valuations and market dynamics. |
Federal Reserve Inflation Policy Yields | |
| 2025 Q4 |
ConcentrationU.S. equity market concentration has reached extreme levels with the ten largest S&P 500 constituents accounting for over 40% of index weight. This concentration is driven by both expanding valuations and growing earnings share of mega-cap technology companies, creating significant portfolio management challenges for active managers. |
Market Structure Index Weight Mega Cap Risk Management |
Risk ManagementConcentrated markets create uneven beta distributions and increased correlation among smaller stocks, making traditional risk models inadequate. The ten largest companies now contribute over 50% of S&P 500 volatility with aggregate volatility 1.5 times the index, requiring more robust approaches to measuring and managing portfolio risk. |
Beta Volatility Correlation Risk Models | |
AIBreakthroughs in artificial intelligence have helped drive notably strong performance in mega-cap technology stocks, contributing to increased market concentration. AI is identified as one of the key technological drivers behind the outperformance of the largest companies in recent years. |
Technology Performance Innovation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GrowthGrowth-oriented stocks underperformed significantly in November due to higher-for-longer interest rate expectations. The manager maintains their growth factor bias despite temporary headwinds, believing companies that consistently grow earnings faster than expectations will be rewarded over time. |
Growth Valuations Earnings Small Caps Rates |
RatesFederal Reserve policy expectations shifted dramatically in November, with rate cut probabilities crashing from 100% to 30% for December. This higher-for-longer rate environment created significant factor headwinds for growth stocks and impacted portfolio performance. |
Fed Interest Rates Monetary Policy Rate Cuts Liquidity |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| MU | Chips and memory are up roughly 80%, with Micron nearly tripling. If Micron's recent result is any indication, the AI theme doesn't look to be slowing down today. |
| INTC | Chips and memory are up roughly 80%, with Intel up 263%. |
| AMD | Chips and memory are up roughly 80%, with AMD up 151%. |
| ADBE | The top of the cake – the shiny software companies now incorporating AI tools – is where money went to die. This Applications group is down 5%, but some members fared much worse – Adobe down 44%. |
| CRM | The top of the cake – the shiny software companies now incorporating AI tools – is where money went to die. This Applications group is down 5%, but some members fared much worse – Salesforce down 42%. |
| NOW | The top of the cake – the shiny software companies now incorporating AI tools – is where money went to die. This Applications group is down 5%, but some members fared much worse – ServiceNow down 38%. |
| GEV | Energy and electrification names are up about a third, led by companies like GE Vernova at +70%. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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