| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 19.10% | -8.50% | 32.20% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32.2% | 66.5% | 82.9% | -51.4% |
Optimist Fund declined 8.5% in Q4 2025 but delivered 32.2% for the full year, continuing its strong track record with 19.1% annualized returns since inception in March 2022. The fund's outperformance stems from a disciplined focus on identifying businesses where deep research uncovers gaps between market expectations and long-term reality, specifically targeting Compounders in Disguise and Inflecting Compounders. Top contributors included Wayfair and Carvana, both showing accelerating revenue growth and expanding profitability. ThredUp remains the largest holding despite recent price weakness, with fundamentals continuing to strengthen including 34% revenue growth and improving margins. The manager exited Monday.com due to loss of confidence in management communication and reduced Latham Group following CEO retirement. New positions were initiated in Root and Affirm while DiscoverIE was elevated to a top ten holding. Looking ahead, the manager believes current valuations materially underappreciate future earnings potential as underlying businesses have improved cost structures, stronger balance sheets, and accelerating growth trajectories.
Optimist Fund focuses on identifying businesses where deep, targeted research can uncover meaningful gaps between market expectations and long-term reality, specifically targeting Compounders in Disguise and Inflecting Compounders where differentiated fundamental insight can drive material outperformance over five-year investment horizons.
The manager believes the next five years will be better than the last four, driven by current valuations materially underappreciating the earnings and cash flow core holdings will generate. Consensus expectations remain anchored to prior periods while underlying businesses have materially improved with leaner cost structures, stronger balance sheets, clearer unit economics and accelerating sales and earnings growth.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AFRM, CVNA, DASH, DICEY.L, FVRR, HFG, LTHM, META, MNDY, NFLX, PTON, ROOT, TDUP, UBER, W | Compounding, E-Commerce, growth, long-term, technology, value |
W CVNA TDUP MNDY SWIM LUCE LN DSCV LN W CVNA TDUP MNDY 3769 JP|4194 CN|4733 JP|APG|CROX|FIX|FLUT|GLEN LN|JD/ LN|MTX GR|PSI CN|TKO|WISE LN|ZETA CVNA TDUP MNDY W CVNA TDUP MNDY |
The fund holds significant positions in e-commerce companies including Wayfair, Carvana, ThredUp, and DoorDash. These businesses are showing strong fundamental performance with revenue growth acceleration… |
| Oct 22 2025 | 2025 Q3 | CVNA, FVRR, HFG GR, MEDP, MNDY, RVLV, TDUP, W | AI, Consumer cyclicals, E-Commerce, growth, small caps |
W TDUP CVNA MEDP W TDUP CVNA MEDP |
The Optimist Fund gained 9.1%, driven by small-cap cyclicals like Wayfair, ThredUp, and Carvana as fundamentals inflected upward. The manager emphasizes structural growth in e-commerce… |
| Jul 18 2025 | 2025 Q2 | CVNA, RVLV, TDUP, W | compounders, Founder-led, inflection points, Long-Term Growth, volatility |
TDUP CVNA W |
The letter emphasizes investing in underappreciated market leaders run by ambitious, founder-like CEOs with long growth runways. Management highlights inflecting compounders where near-term margins mask… |
| Apr 22 2025 | 2025 Q1 | CVNA, FA, HFG GR, RVLV, TDUP, UBER, W | - | - | - |
| Jan 20 2025 | 2024 Q4 | CVNA, DASH, HFG GR, RVLV, SWIM, TDUP, W, XPOF | - | - | - |
| Oct 16 2024 | 2024 Q3 | CVNA, FA, RVLV, SMAR, SWIM, W | - | - | - |
| Jul 16 2024 | 2024 Q2 | CVNA, DASH, MNDY, SMAR, UBER, W | - | - | - |
| May 1 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ACVA, CRCT, CVNA, DASH, HFG GR, SMAR, UBER, W, XPOF | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
E-commerceThe portfolio maintains exposure to e-commerce platforms and enablement technologies through holdings like Amazon and Shopify. The fund views e-commerce as benefiting from secular shifts in consumer behavior and continued digital commerce adoption across retail categories. |
Platforms Digital Retail Consumer Technology |
Growth |
||
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
Growth |
||
Small CapsThe fund invests in a portfolio of competitively advantaged small and medium-sized businesses, which remained out of favor for most of the quarter. The strategy of owning leading small-cap businesses has been the foundation since inception, delivering 354 basis points of annual outperformance over the benchmark since inception despite recent headwinds. |
Growth Outperformance Benchmark Russell Businesses | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Compounders |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | NYSE | Auto retail, e-commerce, FCF, growth, leverage, Margins, scale | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | - | Latham Group Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Products | Bear | NASDAQ | Building Products, CEO transition, EBITDA growth, Management Change, market share gains, Swimming Pools | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | MEDP | Medpace Holdings Inc. | Health Care | Contract Research Organization | Bull | NASDAQ | Biotech, capital allocation, Cro, FCF, founder-led, growth, Margins, share repurchase | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | - | DiscoverIE Group plc | Information Technology | Electronic Components | Bear | LSE | Cyclical Recovery, Electronic Components, high switching costs, Industrial technology, Mission-Critical, multiple expansion, UK | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | ecommerce, Fulfillment, Inflection, margin expansion, Resale | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | 3769 JP|4194 CN|4733 JP|APG|CROX|FIX|FLUT|GLEN LN|JD/ LN|MTX GR|PSI CN|TKO|WISE LN|ZETA | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bear | NYSE | Consumer Discretionary, e-commerce, EBITDA Expansion, home furnishings, retail, Revenue Growth, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Autos, ecommerce, growth, Margins, scale, turnaround | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bear | NYSE | automotive, e-commerce, EBITDA margin, Online Sales, Record Results, turnaround, used car retail | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | W | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Competition, Demand, ecommerce, Home goods, Inflection, Margins | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bear | NASDAQ | Customer Acquisition, e-commerce, EBITDA Positive, growth acceleration, marketplace, Rebrand, Secondhand Apparel | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | W | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Broadline Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Cyclical, EBITDA, ecommerce, growth, Housing, Margins, Operatingleverage, Rebound, recovery | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | MNDY | Monday.com Ltd. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | NASDAQ | Communication Issues, Enterprise software, Management Exit, Mixed Results, Project Management, SaaS | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | automotive, EBITDA, ecommerce, growth, Margins, profitability, scale, turnaround, Uniteconomics | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | - | Latham Group Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Products | Bear | NASDAQ | Building Products, CEO transition, EBITDA growth, Management Change, market share gains, Swimming Pools | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Other Specialty Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | ecommerce, growth, guidance, Margins, marketplace, Reacceleration, Resale, Useracquisition, Volatility | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | - | DiscoverIE Group plc | Information Technology | Electronic Components | Bear | LSE | Cyclical Recovery, Electronic Components, high switching costs, Industrial technology, Mission-Critical, multiple expansion, UK | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | MNDY | Monday.com Ltd. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | NASDAQ | Confidence, enterprise, Execution, exit, growth, guidance, management, SaaS, visibility | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | W | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bear | NYSE | Consumer Discretionary, e-commerce, EBITDA Expansion, home furnishings, retail, Revenue Growth, turnaround | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | SWIM | Latham Group, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Cyclical, Execution, guidance, Housing, leadership, Leisure, Margins, Revenue, Transition | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bear | NYSE | automotive, e-commerce, EBITDA margin, Online Sales, Record Results, turnaround, used car retail | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | W | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | E-Commerce | Bull | NYSE | cash flow, e-commerce, Home goods, Housing recovery, margin expansion, profitability, Scalability | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | LUCE LN | Luceco plc | Industrials | Electrical Components & Equipment | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | acquisition, Components, compounder, Cyclical, DesignWins, Industrial, Margins, recovery, valuation | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bear | NASDAQ | Customer Acquisition, e-commerce, EBITDA Positive, growth acceleration, marketplace, Rebrand, Secondhand Apparel | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Online Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Circular economy, Customer Acquisition, e-commerce, growth, Margins, Resale, Sustainability | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | DSCV LN | DiscoverIE Group plc | Information Technology | Electronic Components | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Acquisitions, compounder, Connectivity, Design, Inflection, Magnetics, recovery, Sensors, valuation | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | MNDY | Monday.com Ltd. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | NASDAQ | Communication Issues, Enterprise software, Management Exit, Mixed Results, Project Management, SaaS | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | NYSE | Auto retail, e-commerce, FCF, growth, leverage, Margins, scale | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | W | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bear | NYSE | Consumer Discretionary, e-commerce, EBITDA Expansion, home furnishings, retail, Revenue Growth, turnaround | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | - | Latham Group Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Products | Bear | NASDAQ | Building Products, CEO transition, EBITDA growth, Management Change, market share gains, Swimming Pools | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | MEDP | Medpace Holdings Inc. | Health Care | Contract Research Organization | Bull | NASDAQ | Biotech, capital allocation, Cro, FCF, founder-led, growth, Margins, share repurchase | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bear | NYSE | automotive, e-commerce, EBITDA margin, Online Sales, Record Results, turnaround, used car retail | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | - | DiscoverIE Group plc | Information Technology | Electronic Components | Bear | LSE | Cyclical Recovery, Electronic Components, high switching costs, Industrial technology, Mission-Critical, multiple expansion, UK | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | W | Mattress Firm Group Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | E-Commerce | Bull | NYSE | cash flow, e-commerce, Home goods, Housing recovery, margin expansion, profitability, Scalability | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bear | NASDAQ | Customer Acquisition, e-commerce, EBITDA Positive, growth acceleration, marketplace, Rebrand, Secondhand Apparel | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Online Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Circular economy, Customer Acquisition, e-commerce, growth, Margins, Resale, Sustainability | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | MNDY | Monday.com Ltd. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | NASDAQ | Communication Issues, Enterprise software, Management Exit, Mixed Results, Project Management, SaaS | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AFRM | Positive returns from Affirm were not enough to offset the detractors |
| CVNA | Our portfolio looks very skewed to Carvana, but that is a feature of the strategy – to let winners run. We did not buy Carvana at this size; it is this size because it is up 100x from its 2022 lows. Carvana uses its technology to manage pricing, logistics, inspections, reconditioning workflow, merchandising, and more. These are all cogs in the industrial machine it has assembled to buy and sell cars to end customers. Significant proprietary technology has been developed to enable Carvana's retail and wholesale operations. Because Carvana is digitally native and has significant size and scale, it has been able to invest in significantly more technology than other auto dealers. |
| DASH | DoorDash Inc. operates a commerce platform that connects merchants, consumers, and independent contractors. reported better-than-expected quarterly results. However, management announced a significant increase in planned investments for 2026, which led to a -17% decline in its share price. |
| DICEY.L | DiscoverIE Group plc is a leading designer and manufacturer of highly differentiated electronic components for mission critical industrial applications. The company specializes in bespoke, application specific products, including magnetics, sensors, power electronics, and connectivity solutions, that are designed into customer systems and typically remain in place for the life of the product. Examples include custom temperature sensors used in specialized medical devices and X ray sensors embedded in airport security scanners. These niche, high value components are small in cost but critical to system performance and reliability. The strategy is simple and disciplined: operate in structurally growing end markets, focus on low-volume, high-complexity components that are difficult to switch, and compound growth through organic design wins and bolt-on acquisitions. This model has enabled 20%+ EPS and free cash flow per share growth over the past 10 years. While challenging end markets led to negative organic growth in both fiscal 2024/fiscal 2025 and compressed the valuation from over 25x earnings to ~15x today, we believe the business is entering the early stages of a cyclical recovery. In our view, this supports the potential for ~20% EPS growth over the next five years alongside meaningful multiple expansion. With aligned management, disciplined capital allocation, and a focused growth strategy, DiscoverIE fits squarely within the type of under-appreciated industrial technology compounder we seek to own. |
| FVRR | Our investment in Fiverr was based on the belief that the company could reaccelerate organic revenue growth back into the mid-teens, which we believed would drive a meaningful re-rating of the shares. Under that scenario, our five-year valuation target was well over $100 per share, compared to a share price of roughly $20 as of December 31st. In Q4, we made the decision that we would rather own Fiverr at a higher price with greater conviction that their growth will reaccelerate than own it today at a lower price with less conviction. Put differently, we would be comfortable purchasing the shares at $30 if we had stronger evidence that revenue growth is sustainably accelerating and that our longer-term ~$100+ valuation target is increasingly likely to be realized. This decision reflects our discipline around conviction and opportunity cost. While we do not own Fiverr today, it remains on our watchlist, and we would not hesitate to re-establish a position should the potential accelerating operating trends, begin to materialize. |
| LTHM | Latham delivered a solid third quarter, with net sales of approximately $162 million, up ~7.6% year-over-year, outperforming a generally flat U.S. in-ground pool market and reflecting continued traction across key product lines, including pool covers, liners, and fiberglass pools. Adjusted EBITDA itself grew roughly 28.5% to about $38.3 million. Latham also narrowed and modestly raised its full-year guidance, signaling confidence in its outlook despite broader industry headwinds, with net sales now expected in the ~$540–$550 million range and adjusted EBITDA of ~$92–$98 million. Overall, the quarter demonstrated a business that continues to grow revenue, expand profitability, and execute on strategic priorities even in challenging end-market conditions. We are pleased with results. On the negative side, Latham's CEO, Scott Rajeski, announced his retirement. The incoming CEO appears credible, coming from James Hardie, a much larger organization, but we have not yet had the opportunity to engage with him and plan to do so following year-end results. Given the unexpected leadership change, we reduced the position from 6% to 3% of the fund. This was not driven by a change in our view of the business, but by our emphasis on management quality and familiarity. Until we build conviction in the new leadership, our overall conviction is lower. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| MNDY | Monday.com detracted from relative quarterly performance |
| NFLX | NFLX was the portfolio's largest detractor in 4Q25 following investor concerns around near-term subscriber growth and rising content spending. While revenue grew approximately 10% year-over-year, management guided to slower net subscriber additions in North America and Europe after recent price increases, and margins were pressured by elevated investment in live sports and international content. |
| PTON | The coming 6 months are critical for this company. After introducing a set of new cross training equipment, the company's embarked on a strategy shift from a pure fitness equipment/subscription platform to a health span platform, one designed to give its customers a healthier and longer life. Since the October launch of new AI powered products, the financial press has published stories about robust demand. PTON ended Q1 with around 2.73M subscribers, and we think it'll end Q2 with ~ 2.69M, which would mean sales of new bikes did fairly well. For 2026, we have Adjusted EBITDA of $500M and FCF around $350M, for a company with a $2.4B market cap today. We think the stock should move higher once PTON demonstrates its equipment is selling well again, and the shares would need to double to match the multiples of its closest competitor. We plan on increasing our position ahead of the quarter's announcement, and believe there's a long runway here. |
| TDUP | ThredUp delivered an excellent third quarter, with revenue up approximately 34% year over year, one of the fastest growth rates in its recent history. Adjusted EBITDA improved to $3.8 million, or a 4.6% margin, from roughly breakeven last year, while active buyers increased about 26%, driven by strong new buyer acquisition. Management also raised full year revenue guidance, signaling confidence in the outlook. Notably, management highlighted that new buyer growth accelerated to 81% year over year in October, up from 54% in Q3, following a rebrand and the launch of a new product recommendation feed in late September. While fundamentals continue to strengthen, the stock has declined over the past five months. These dislocations between price and fundamentals are common in the types of businesses we invest in and have led us to add to the position. ThredUp remains our largest holding. |
| UBER | UBER was a detractor in the fourth quarter following its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, which delivered strong operating performance but was met with a muted market reaction. Gross Bookings and adjusted EBITDA both came in near the high end of management's guidance, driven by accelerating demand across both Mobility and Delivery. However, investor focus shifted to commentary around reduced margin expansion as the company steps up investment in growth initiatives, including autonomous vehicle partnerships, platform innovation, and commerce expansion. |
| W | Last quarter, we highlighted that Wayfair's Q2 results were the strongest we had seen in several years and supported our thesis that the business was positioned for a meaningful rebound as the home furnishings market recovered. Q3 built on that momentum. Revenue grew 9% year over year, accelerating from 6% in Q2, while adjusted EBITDA increased more than 70% year over year. These results provide further evidence that Wayfair's future profit growth remains substantial and is materially underappreciated by the market. Wayfair continues to be a top five holding. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
