| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 9% | -27.3% | -27.3% |
Optimist Fund declined 27.3% in Q1 2026 as market fears surrounding AI disruption and geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran war triggered broad selling in growth companies. The manager emphasizes this decline reflects sentiment shifts rather than fundamental deterioration in their portfolio companies, which continue performing well operationally. Companies like ThredUp, Wayfair, and Carvana showed strong revenue growth and margin expansion despite stock price weakness. The fund increased equity exposure from 3% cash to modest leverage, adding to core positions and initiating new investments in Toast and Zscaler while exiting Teledyne and Ashtead. The manager views this as the most compelling opportunity set since 2022, similar to previous drawdowns that preceded 200%+ returns. Their approach remains unchanged: owning ambitious, market-leading businesses run by aligned management teams and holding through volatility to capture long-term compounding. The portfolio is now concentrated in what they consider the highest-quality, most mispriced businesses since inception, positioned for the eventual rebound.
The fund focuses exclusively on high-growth, innovative, customer-obsessed businesses with strong competitive positions and significant long-term growth potential, holding them through periods of volatility to capture their compounding returns.
The manager expects the current dislocation to enhance long-term returns by allowing additions to core positions at attractive prices. They see the most compelling opportunity set since 2022 and are actively repositioning for the eventual rebound. The portfolio is increasingly concentrated in what they believe are the highest-quality, most mispriced businesses since inception.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12 2026 | 2026 Q1 | AFRM, AHT.L, CVNA, DASH, DSCV.L, DSV.CO, FA, KVYO, MEDP, MNDY, TDUP, TDY, TOST, UBER, W, ZS | AI, dislocation, E-Commerce, growth, opportunity, technology |
TDUP W CVNA TOST |
Optimist Fund fell 27.3% in Q1 as AI fears and Iran war drove growth stock selloff. Manager sees sentiment-driven dislocation creating compelling opportunities, adding to core positions like ThredUp, Wayfair, and Carvana while initiating Toast and Zscaler. Portfolio companies show strong fundamentals despite stock weakness. Fund increased leverage, positioning for rebound in highest-quality businesses since inception. |
| Feb 12 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AFRM, CVNA, DASH, DICEY.L, FVRR, HFG, LTHM, META, MNDY, NFLX, PTON, ROOT, TDUP, UBER, W | Compounding, E-Commerce, growth, long-term, technology, value |
W CVNA TDUP MNDY SWIM LUCE LN DSCV LN W CVNA TDUP MNDY |
Optimist Fund delivered 32.2% returns in 2025 despite Q4 decline, maintaining strong long-term performance through disciplined focus on misunderstood compounders. Portfolio companies like Wayfair, Carvana, and ThredUp show accelerating fundamentals while trading at attractive valuations. Manager believes next five years will outperform as current prices underappreciate improved business quality and earnings potential. |
| Oct 22 2025 | 2025 Q3 | CVNA, DASH, FADU, FVRR, HFG.DE, MEDP, MNDY, RVLV, SWIM, TDUP, UBER, W | Biotech, Cyclical, E-Commerce, growth, mid cap, Recovery, technology |
W TDUP CVNA MEDP W TDUP CVNA MEDP |
Optimist Fund gained 9.1% in Q3 as cyclical holdings like Wayfair, ThredUp, and Carvana showed strong recovery signs after multi-year downswings. The fund added Medpace, a founder-led CRO, while trimming software positions facing AI headwinds. With end markets stabilizing across multiple holdings, the manager sees significant opportunity ahead for continued outperformance. |
| Jul 18 2025 | 2025 Q2 | CVNA, DASH, FA, FVRR, HFG, MNDY, RVLV, TDUP, UBER, W | Compounding, E-Commerce, growth, Long/Short, mid cap, value |
TDUP CVNA W TDUP CVNA W RVLV |
Optimist Fund achieved 39.2% returns in Q2 by investing in underappreciated market leaders like ThredUp, Carvana, and Wayfair. The manager used tariff-driven volatility to add positions at attractive prices, with both Carvana and Wayfair subsequently doubling. Strong conviction remains in the portfolio's ability to deliver exceptional five-year returns through disciplined long-term investing. |
| Apr 22 2025 | 2025 Q1 | CVNA, DASH, FA, FVRR, HFG.DE, LIDR, MNDY, RVLV, TDUP, UBER, W | consumer, E-Commerce, growth, long-term, profitability, Recovery, technology |
TDUP CVNA UBER HFG REVL W FA |
Optimist Fund's Q1 decline of 4.9% reflects short-term volatility rather than fundamental deterioration. Manager McNamee maintains high conviction in portfolio companies like ThredUp, Carvana, and Uber, which demonstrated strong operational progress despite market headwinds. The fund leverages market dislocations as opportunities, positioning for compound value creation over five years in underappreciated growth businesses. |
| Jan 20 2025 | 2024 Q4 | ACVA, BFIT.AS, CRCT, CVNA, DASH, DSV.CO, FIGS, HFG.DE, LATM, MNDY, REVL, TDUP, TDY, UBER, W, XPOF | consumer, E-Commerce, growth, Logistics, mid cap, profitability, technology |
CVNA DASH HFG.DE RVLV POOL W TDUP |
Optimist Fund delivered 67% returns in 2024 led by exceptional e-commerce performance from Carvana and DoorDash. The concentrated mid-cap portfolio focuses on market share gainers with improving profitability. Manager increased positions during volatility and sees significant five-year upside potential across holdings despite near-term headwinds in home goods market. |
| Oct 16 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ACVA, CIGI, CVNA, DASH, FA, HFG.DE, LIDR, MNDY, REVL, UBER, W | Cyclical, E-Commerce, growth, mid cap, value |
CVNA HFG.DE FA POOL |
Optimist Fund posted 28% Q3 returns led by Carvana, HelloFresh, and Revolve. The manager increased HelloFresh exposure and added First Advantage while highlighting Latham Group's cyclical recovery potential. Despite Wayfair delays and Smartsheet's disappointing acquisition, the concentrated portfolio targets 5x returns over five years through undervalued growth companies. |
| Jul 16 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ACVA, CIGI, CVNA, DASH, HFG, MNDY, RVLV, SMAR, TDUP, UBER, W | Concentration, E-Commerce, growth, mid cap, SaaS, technology |
CVNA MNDY |
Optimist Fund targets 18 market leaders with 5x+ appreciation potential over five years. Despite Q2's 2% decline, portfolio companies delivered strong fundamentals with Carvana leading automotive dealers and DoorDash growing 23% revenue. Manager added to positions on weakness and sees clear path to exceptional returns through concentrated growth investing in exceptional businesses. |
| May 1 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ACVA, AHT, BFIT, CIGI, CRCT, CVNA, DASH, FIGS, HFG, MNDY, OPEN, POOL, PTON, REVL, SMAR, UBER, W, XPOF | Concentration, E-Commerce, Fitness, growth, Market Leadership, technology, turnaround |
CVNA DASH XPOF UBER ACVA |
Optimist Fund's concentrated portfolio of market leaders delivered 19% in Q1, led by Carvana's growth inflection and DoorDash's margin expansion. The fund targets companies that emerged dominant from 2022's tech selloff, similar to Amazon post-2000s bubble. New position Xponential Fitness offers 275% upside potential despite short attack concerns. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIMarket fears of AI disruption drove indiscriminate selling in growth companies, but the manager sees AI as a tailwind for their portfolio companies. Their high-growth, innovative businesses are leaning aggressively into AI to enhance customer propositions. The manager views current AI fears as creating buying opportunities rather than fundamental threats. |
Disruption Innovation Technology |
E-commerceThe fund holds significant positions in e-commerce companies like Wayfair, ThredUp, and Carvana that continue to show strong fundamental performance despite market weakness. These companies are demonstrating revenue growth, margin expansion, and market share gains in their respective verticals. |
Online Digital Retail | |
GrowthThe fund is exclusively focused on growth-oriented companies and sees the current dislocation as creating the most compelling opportunity set since 2022. The manager believes high-growth, innovative businesses will emerge stronger and compound returns over time despite near-term volatility. |
Innovation Compounding Quality | |
| 2025 Q4 |
Small CapsSmall-cap equities ended 2025 on a positive but volatile note with the Russell 2000 returning 2.2% in Q4. The manager expects a constructive outlook for small-cap equities entering 2026, particularly within value-oriented segments, driven by Federal Reserve monetary easing and improving earnings momentum. |
Russell 2000 Value Earnings Volatility |
ValueValue-oriented stocks remain attractively positioned with growth stocks continuing to trade at a meaningful premium. The manager believes periods of accelerating profits have historically favored value leadership, particularly within smaller-cap universes, creating compelling opportunities for disciplined value investing. |
Growth Premium Valuation Leadership Fundamentals | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve's shift toward monetary easing represents an important inflection point for smaller companies, which tend to be more sensitive to changes in interest rates and credit conditions. Lower borrowing costs should support refinancing activity, capital investment, and margin recovery. |
Federal Reserve Credit Borrowing Costs Refinancing | |
EarningsConsensus expectations point to meaningful acceleration in small-cap earnings in 2026, with growth projected in the low-to-mid teens and exceeding that of large-cap companies. This anticipated rebound reflects easier year-over-year comparisons, improving operating leverage, and broadening demand across cyclical sectors. |
Growth Operating Leverage Cyclical Consensus | |
UtilitiesStrong stock selection and favorable allocation made Utilities the largest contributor to relative performance for the quarter. Portland General Electric led gains, supported by regulatory clarity, steady rate base growth, and defensive characteristics that were rewarded as market volatility increased. |
Defensive Regulatory Rate Base Volatility | |
EnergyStrong stock selection and favorable allocation within Energy made the sector the second-largest contributor to relative performance. Helmerich & Payne and Coterra Energy led gains, benefiting from improving drilling activity, disciplined capital allocation, and favorable commodity pricing dynamics. |
Drilling Capital Allocation Commodity Pricing | |
| 2025 Q3 |
E-commerceThe fund sees acceleration in cyclical e-commerce holdings like Wayfair and ThredUp that have been in multi-year downswings. Wayfair delivered strong growth with revenue up 5-6% and expanding margins, while ThredUp posted 16% revenue growth with strong operating leverage. |
Online retail Digital commerce Consumer discretionary Cyclical recovery Operating leverage |
Used AutosCarvana continues delivering record performance with 41% growth in retail units sold and strong profitability. The company maintains only 1.5% US market share, indicating substantial expansion runway with structural advantages in the business model. |
Auto retail Digital disruption Market share expansion Operational efficiency | |
CRO & CDMOMedpace represents a market-leading contract research organization focused on small and mid-sized biotech companies. The founder-led business has compounded at 20% annually for three decades while maintaining best-in-class margins and exceptional cash flow conversion. |
Clinical trials Biotech services Founder-led Operational excellence Capital allocation | |
SaaSSoftware holdings like Monday.com face near-term headwinds from AI-related search changes but are positioned to benefit from AI adoption long-term. The fund believes innovative SaaS platforms will harness AI to drive growth reacceleration over coming years. |
Enterprise software AI integration Growth reacceleration Innovation | |
| 2025 Q2 |
E-commerceThe fund holds multiple e-commerce companies including ThredUp, Carvana, Wayfair, and Revolve. ThredUp is undergoing a significant inflection point with strong Q1 results and raised guidance. Wayfair appears to be finally seeing revenue growth inflect after more than two years of waiting, with strong demand trends cited at recent investor conferences. |
Online retail Digital commerce Growth Inflection Revenue |
Used AutosCarvana posted exceptional quarterly results with 46% growth in retail units, 38% revenue growth, and an all-time high adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.5%. Management introduced a bold new long-term target of 3 million annual retail units at a 13.5% EBITDA margin within 5-10 years, implying over 40% annualized unit growth. |
Auto retail Unit growth EBITDA margin Scale Digital | |
GrowthThe fund focuses on investing in underappreciated, market-leading businesses with long runways for growth led by ambitious CEOs. The manager emphasizes companies in the early innings of their growth journey, seeking businesses that can deliver exceptional five-year returns through both organic growth and strategic acquisitions. |
Long-term Compounding Market leaders Early innings Returns | |
| 2025 Q1 |
E-commerceMultiple e-commerce companies featured prominently including ThredUp (secondhand fashion marketplace), Revolve (fashion e-commerce), and Wayfair (home goods e-commerce). Manager views short-term pressure on consumer discretionary as noise and remains focused on long-term fundamentals. |
Marketplace Consumer Digital Retail Growth |
Used AutosCarvana highlighted as top contributor with outstanding Q4 results showing 50% growth in retail cars sold and record profitability. Manager believes concerns about leveraged balance sheet will diminish as profitability continues to scale. |
Automotive Digital Marketplace Recovery Profitability | |
TravelUber featured as top contributor with strongest quarter yet, showing 18% growth in gross bookings and emerging upside from autonomous vehicles. DoorDash also held as top 10 position in mobility/delivery space. |
Mobility Delivery Platform Technology Growth | |
| 2024 Q4 |
E-commerceMultiple e-commerce holdings including Carvana (used car retail), DoorDash (food delivery), Revolve (fashion), and Wayfair (home goods) represent core portfolio positions. The manager sees significant growth potential as these companies gain market share and improve profitability despite challenging market conditions. |
Marketplaces Digital Retail Online Commerce Platform Business Market Share |
Used AutosCarvana is the largest holding, representing the fastest growing and most profitable used car retailer with only 1% market share. The manager highlights exceptional operating performance with 20%+ revenue growth and 11%+ EBITDA margins, seeing material growth potential ahead. |
Auto Retail Digital Transformation Market Leadership Profitability Growth | |
LogisticsDoorDash continues demonstrating exceptional balance of growth and profitability with 20%+ revenue growth and profits expanding at double that pace. New position in DSV A/S, a Danish freight forwarding company undergoing transformational acquisition, adds to logistics exposure. |
Food Delivery Freight Forwarding Revenue Growth Margin Expansion Operational Excellence | |
| 2024 Q3 |
E-commerceThe fund holds multiple e-commerce positions including Carvana (online used car sales), Revolve (fashion e-commerce), and Wayfair (home goods). Carvana continues strong performance with 30%+ unit growth and superior margins. Revolve showed accelerating revenue growth and expanding margins. |
Online retail Digital commerce Direct-to-consumer Marketplace Digital transformation |
GrowthThe portfolio focuses on companies with strong growth potential, targeting businesses that can achieve 15-20% earnings growth. First Advantage is expected to grow earnings over 20% annually, while Latham Group is positioned for material earnings improvement as the pool market normalizes. |
Revenue growth Earnings expansion Market share gains Secular trends Compounding | |
| 2024 Q2 |
E-commerceThe fund holds multiple e-commerce leaders including Carvana (fastest growing automotive dealer in North America), Wayfair (waiting for home goods market stabilization), and ThredUp (second-hand consignment marketplace). These companies are positioned to benefit from continued digital transformation and market share gains. |
Online retail Digital transformation Market share Automotive Home goods |
SaaSThe portfolio includes enterprise software leaders Smartsheet and Monday.com, both in collaborative work management. Monday.com is highlighted as having exceptional unit economics with under 2-year payback periods and expanding into CRM and service management markets. The manager sees significant runway as less than 50 million of 1 billion knowledge workers globally use collaborative work management solutions. |
Enterprise software Collaboration Work management CRM Unit economics | |
GrowthThe fund targets 18 market leading companies with potential to appreciate 5x+ over the next 5 years. Portfolio companies like DoorDash delivered 23% revenue growth and 82% adjusted EBITDA growth, while Uber grew bookings and EBITDA over 20% and 80% respectively. The manager focuses on companies with strong growth trajectories and margin expansion potential. |
Revenue growth EBITDA expansion Market leaders Margin expansion Compounding | |
| 2024 Q1 |
E-commerceThe fund believes market leaders like Carvana, Wayfair, and DoorDash have won their respective online markets after competitors died or shrank dramatically during 2022. The manager sees this as similar to Amazon's dominance after the early 2000s tech bubble collapse. |
Online retail Market consolidation Digital platforms Competitive moats Market leadership |
FitnessXponential Fitness is highlighted as a new position - a founder-led boutique fitness franchisor with ten brands including Club Pilates. The company faced a short attack but the manager believes it's a high-quality business trading at attractive valuations with significant growth potential. |
Franchising Boutique fitness Club Pilates Founder-led Short squeeze | |
Used AutosCarvana is positioned as having won the online used car market and is experiencing a growth inflection with 15% year-over-year unit growth in Q1. The company is generating over $100 million of adjusted EBITDA while growing retail units sold. |
Online auto sales Market leadership Unit growth EBITDA generation Growth inflection |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | TDUP | ThredUp | Internet Retail | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Consumer Discretionary, e-commerce, EBITDA Expansion, growth, Multi-year Inflection, Resale | Login |
| May 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | W | Wayfair | Internet Retail | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Consumer Discretionary, e-commerce, EBITDA Expansion, Home goods, organic growth, recovery | Login |
| May 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | CVNA | Carvana | Auto & Truck Dealerships | Specialty Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Consumer Discretionary, e-commerce, market share, Reconditioning, Unit growth, Used cars | Login |
| May 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | TOST | Toast | Software - Infrastructure | Application Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | ARR growth, Cloud software, Free Cash Flow, market leader, Restaurant POS, SaaS | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | W | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Broadline Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Cyclical, EBITDA, ecommerce, growth, Housing, Margins, Operatingleverage, Rebound, recovery | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | automotive, EBITDA, ecommerce, growth, Margins, profitability, scale, turnaround, Uniteconomics | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Other Specialty Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | ecommerce, growth, guidance, Margins, marketplace, Reacceleration, Resale, Useracquisition, Volatility | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | MNDY | Monday.com Ltd. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | NASDAQ | Confidence, enterprise, Execution, exit, growth, guidance, management, SaaS, visibility | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | SWIM | Latham Group, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Cyclical, Execution, guidance, Housing, leadership, Leisure, Margins, Revenue, Transition | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | LUCE LN | Luceco plc | Industrials | Electrical Components & Equipment | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | acquisition, Components, compounder, Cyclical, DesignWins, Industrial, Margins, recovery, valuation | Login |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | DSCV LN | DiscoverIE Group plc | Information Technology | Electronic Components | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Acquisitions, compounder, Connectivity, Design, Inflection, Magnetics, recovery, Sensors, valuation | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | W | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bear | NYSE | Consumer Discretionary, e-commerce, EBITDA Expansion, home furnishings, retail, Revenue Growth, turnaround | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bear | NYSE | automotive, e-commerce, EBITDA margin, Online Sales, Record Results, turnaround, used car retail | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bear | NASDAQ | Customer Acquisition, e-commerce, EBITDA Positive, growth acceleration, marketplace, Rebrand, Secondhand Apparel | Login |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | MNDY | Monday.com Ltd. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | NASDAQ | Communication Issues, Enterprise software, Management Exit, Mixed Results, Project Management, SaaS | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | W | Mattress Firm Group Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | E-Commerce | Bull | NYSE | cash flow, e-commerce, Home goods, Housing recovery, margin expansion, profitability, Scalability | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Online Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Circular economy, Customer Acquisition, e-commerce, growth, Margins, Resale, Sustainability | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | W | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | E-Commerce | Bull | NYSE | cash flow, e-commerce, Home goods, Housing recovery, margin expansion, profitability, Scalability | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Online Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Circular economy, Customer Acquisition, e-commerce, growth, Margins, Resale, Sustainability | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | NYSE | Auto retail, e-commerce, FCF, growth, leverage, Margins, scale | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | NYSE | Auto retail, e-commerce, FCF, growth, leverage, Margins, scale | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | MEDP | Medpace Holdings Inc. | Health Care | Contract Research Organization | Bull | NASDAQ | Biotech, capital allocation, Cro, FCF, founder-led, growth, Margins, share repurchase | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | MEDP | Medpace Holdings Inc. | Health Care | Contract Research Organization | Bull | NASDAQ | Biotech, capital allocation, Cro, FCF, founder-led, growth, Margins, share repurchase | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | ecommerce, Fulfillment, Inflection, margin expansion, Resale | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | e-commerce, Fulfillment, Guidance Raise, Inflection, Resale, scaling | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Autos, ecommerce, growth, Margins, scale, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jordan McNamee | W | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Competition, Demand, ecommerce, Home goods, Inflection, Margins | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | e-commerce, EBITDA margin, Long-term Target, scaling, Unit growth, Used cars | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | W | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | Chinese Competition, De Minimis, e-commerce, Home goods, market share, Revenue Inflection | Login |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | RVLV | Revolve Group Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | Adding Position, e-commerce, Fashion retail, Revenue Growth, tariffs, valuation | Login |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | HFG | HelloFresh SE | Consumer Staples | Food & Staples Retailing | Bull | XETRA | consumer staples, Customer Quality, EBIT growth, Europe, margin expansion, Meal Kit Delivery, Profitability Focus | Login |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | UBER | Uber Technologies, Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NYSE | autonomous vehicles, EBITDA growth, food delivery, Free Cash Flow, mobility, Platform business, Ride Sharing | Login |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Consumer Discretionary, e-commerce, growth, margin expansion, Online Resale, revenue acceleration, small-cap | Login |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | FA | First Advantage Corporation | Industrials | Human Resource & Employment Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Background Checks, Cost synergies, Cyclical Recovery, deleveraging, employment services, EPS growth, M&A Integration, market leader | Login |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | Balance Sheet Recovery, Consumer Discretionary, e-commerce, EBITDA margin, profitability inflection, turnaround, used car retail | Login |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | W | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | Category Normalization, Consumer Discretionary, Cyclical Recovery, e-commerce, Home Goods Retail, market leader | Login |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | REVL | Revolve Group, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | Consumer Discretionary, e-commerce, gross margin expansion, Marketing efficiency, Online Fashion Retail, Return Rate Improvement | Login |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | HFG.DE | HelloFresh SE | Consumer Staples | Food & Staples Retailing | Bull | XETRA | business model validation, Contrarian Investment, European Consumer, Free Cash Flow, Meal Kit Delivery, Subscription Commerce | Login |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | TDUP | ThredUp Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Circular economy, competitive moat, E-commerce Platform, Free cash flow inflection, Managed Marketplace, Second-hand Marketplace, turnaround story | Login |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | RVLV | Revolve Group, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | Consumer Discretionary, digital platform, e-commerce, margin expansion, Online Fashion Retail, Revenue Growth Acceleration | Login |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | POOL | Pool Corporation | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Cyclical Recovery, earnings growth, Free Cash Flow, Industry Trough, Market normalization, Pool Installation | Login |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | food delivery, Logistics Platform, margin expansion, on-demand services, profitability, Revenue Growth | Login |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | automotive, e-commerce, EBITDA margins, market share expansion, Revenue Growth, used car retail | Login |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | W | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | double-digit growth, Free Cash Flow Generation, Home Goods E-commerce, Margin Improvement, market recovery, market share gains | Login |
| Oct 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | HFG.DE | HelloFresh SE | Consumer Staples | Food Retail | Bull | XETRA | EBITDA multiple, Europe, food delivery, Free Cash Flow, insider buying, Meal-Kit, turnaround | Login |
| Oct 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | FA | First Advantage Corporation | Industrials | Human Resource & Employment Services | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition, Background Checks, earnings growth, Human Resources, market consolidation, Screening Services | Login |
| Oct 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | POOL | Latham Group Inc | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | construction, Cyclical Recovery, Fiberglass Pools, Interest rates, manufacturing, market share, operating leverage | Login |
| Oct 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | Automotive Retail, e-commerce, EBITDA margins, market share, Unit growth, Used cars | Login |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | automotive, e-commerce, EBITDA margins, market leader, Revenue Growth, Used Car Dealer | Login |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | MNDY | Monday.com Ltd. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Collaborative Software, CRM, founder-led, Free Cash Flow, Knowledge Workers, SaaS, Unit economics, Work management | Login |
| Apr 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | ACVA | ACV Auctions Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Auto dealers, Automotive Wholesale, Digital Marketplace, EBITDA Profitability, market recovery, Revenue Growth | Login |
| Apr 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | XPOF | Xponential Fitness, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Bull | NYSE | Boutique Fitness, contrarian, founder-led, franchise business, Free Cash Flow, multiple expansion, Short squeeze, turnaround | Login |
| Apr 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | UBER | Uber Technologies, Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NYSE | bookings growth, Free Cash Flow, market leader, operating leverage, Platform business, Ride Sharing, Share Buyback | Login |
| Apr 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | food delivery, margin expansion, market leader, operating leverage, Platform business, Revenue Growth | Login |
| Apr 16, 2024 | Fund Letters | Optimist Fund | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | Automotive Retail, e-commerce, EBITDA growth, market leader, turnaround, Unit growth, Used cars | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| TDUP | ThredUp's share price has been extremely weak over the past six months despite continued strength in the underlying business. Notably, recent financial performance has increased our confidence in our five-year target of $30+ per share. We view this disconnect between price and fundamentals as a compelling opportunity and added to the position during the quarter. Q4 results reinforced the accelerating momentum we highlighted last quarter. Revenue grew ~18% year over year, while new buyer growth accelerated to +57%. The company guided to 13% revenue growth and 160 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion in 2026, both ahead of consensus expectations. We view this as a conservative starting point. For context, the company entered 2025 guiding to 6% growth and ultimately delivered 18%. Taken together, these results support our view that ThredUp remains in the early stages of a multi-year inflection, where growth and profitability scale in tandem. We believe the company's long-term earnings power remains materially underappreciated. ThredUp continues to be a top holding. |
| W | Wayfair's Q4 results further validated the recovery we have been underwriting. Revenue grew 8% year over year (excluding the Germany exit) despite a still-muted category backdrop, while profitability continued to expand, with adjusted EBITDA margins reaching their highest levels in several years. In his February shareholder letter, Co-founder and CEO Niraj Shah highlighted two points that stand out. First, the company expects to accelerate revenue growth throughout the year, exiting 2026 in the double-digit range. Second, over time, Wayfair believes it can return to 20%+ organic growth. Both are well above current market expectations. Despite this fundamental progress, the share price has remained weak. We view this disconnect as an opportunity and added to the position during the quarter. Wayfair remains a top five holding. |
| CVNA | Carvana finished the year with another strong quarter. EBITDA came in modestly below our expectations, driven by elevated costs at a handful of reconditioning centers, but this does not change our view of the long-term earnings power of the business. Stepping back, the underlying momentum remains exceptional. Unit growth continues to exceed 35% year over year, while the company is delivering best-in-class profitability. Management expects the reconditioning cost pressures experienced in Q4 to be resolved by Q2 2026. With less than 2% share of the U.S. used car market, Carvana's growth runway remains measured in decades, not years. Carvana remains a top five holding, and we added to the position during Q1. |
| MNDY | We maintained a position in Monday.com into 2026, believing management could execute against the objectives they had outlined in the fall of 2025. Following the company's fourth-quarter earnings release in February, we exited the position. Results came in below our expectations, and more importantly, management was unable to clearly articulate changing trends occurring within the business. When we lose confidence in the clarity and reliability of management's communication, we exit. That is what we have done here. |
| FA | First Advantage delivered an outstanding Q4. Organic growth accelerated meaningfully to 12% year over year, a sharp improvement from negative growth entering 2025, and management remains confident in the company's forward trajectory. Despite this progress, the shares have sold off materially amid concerns that AI could negatively impact the business. We believe these concerns are misplaced. In February the company announced a $100 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in both the business and the current valuation. We were very encouraged by these results and added to the position during Q1. Today, we believe First Advantage is trading at under 10x 2026 EPS for a business capable of compounding earnings at 20%+ annually over the next five years. |
| TOST | The founders of Toast recognized in 2012 that restaurants were operating on deeply outdated technology. Point-of-sale systems were often built on 15-year-old hardware, running legacy, on-premise software, with payment terminals that were not integrated into the core system. While much of the world was rapidly adopting cloud-based infrastructure, restaurants remained stuck with legacy, inefficient systems. This gap led Toast to build a cloud-native POS platform with fully integrated payments, purpose-built for restaurants. Fourteen years later, Toast has become the leading POS provider for SMB restaurants in the United States, with approximately 20% market share. Despite this leadership position, the company's growth runway remains substantial. In its most penetrated markets, roughly 70% of newly opened restaurants choose Toast, a clear indication that current share is far from a ceiling and that the company continues to win disproportionately as the market evolves. Beyond its core, Toast is expanding into multiple new vectors of growth, including international markets, enterprise restaurant customers, and adjacent verticals such as grocery, convenience, and liquor retail. While these initiatives currently represent only ~5% of ARR (annual recurring revenue), they are scaling quickly and significantly expand the company's long-term opportunity set. The economics of the business are compelling. In 2025, Toast generated approximately $2 billion in annual recurring revenue, growing 26% year over year, alongside roughly $600 million of free cash flow. This combination of strong growth and rising profitability is expected to persist, with the company targeting 20%+ annual revenue growth, a path to $10 billion in ARR over the next decade and continually expanding free cash flow margins. Recent fears around AI-driven disruption in software have driven a broad selloff across the sector, with Toast's share price declining roughly 50% over the past eight months. As a result, the company now trades at approximately 15x 2026 free cash flow, a level we view as highly attractive given our expectation for 30%+ free cash flow growth. Our five-year price target is $135, implying a ~365% return from the current price of $29 and an approximate 35% 5 year compounded annual return. This outlook is supported by our expectations for ~22% gross profit growth, ~27% free cash flow per share growth through 2031, and a 27x 2031 free cash flow per share multiple. In our view, Toast remains in the early stages of their growth journey. With a foundering management team, focused vertical strategy, and multiple durable growth levers, it fits squarely within the type of high-quality, compounder in disguise we seek to own. |
| TDY | During the quarter, we fully exited our positions in Teledyne Technologies and Ashtead Group to reallocate into opportunities with more attractive risk-reward profiles. We continue to view both businesses favorably and would expect to own them again at the right price. |
| AHT.L | During the quarter, we fully exited our positions in Teledyne Technologies and Ashtead Group to reallocate into opportunities with more attractive risk-reward profiles. We continue to view both businesses favorably and would expect to own them again at the right price. |
| DSV.CO | We also trimmed positions in DSV and DiscoverIE Group, where forward return profiles were less compelling relative to other opportunities in the portfolio. |
| DSCV.L | We also trimmed positions in DSV and DiscoverIE Group, where forward return profiles were less compelling relative to other opportunities in the portfolio. |
| ZS | We also initiated new investments in Toast, a disruptive restaurant point-of-sale platform, and Zscaler, a leader in cloud-based cybersecurity. |
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