| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 11.7% | - | 21.5% |
The Investigator Trust delivered strong returns of 21.5% in 2025, outperforming both Australian and global markets, driven primarily by a 52% gain in gold and strong performance from Asian equity holdings including Alibaba and Baidu. Despite this success, the manager maintains a cautious stance, holding nearly half the portfolio in cash and gold due to concerns about elevated market valuations and economic headwinds. The manager draws parallels between the current AI boom and the Dotcom bubble, noting over $3 trillion in expected AI investment despite negligible revenue generation. Key risks include record-high US stock valuations, consumer stress from inflation and higher rates, rising unemployment, and unsustainable government debt levels. The portfolio remains defensively positioned with a geographic focus on Asia where better value opportunities exist. Recent additions include undervalued companies like Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal, purchased at attractive multiples despite market-wide expensive valuations.
Despite strong performance driven by gold and Asian equities, the manager maintains defensive positioning with significant cash and gold holdings due to elevated market valuations, economic headwinds, and parallels to historical technology bubbles.
The manager maintains a cautious outlook given elevated market valuations and economic headwinds, continuing to hold significant cash and gold positions while selectively finding value opportunities in undervalued securities.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 0001.HK, AQN, BABA, BIDU, CA.PA, CEO, CNC, GSK, J36.SI, NE, NXE, PBR, PRX.AS, PYPL, SDRL, VAL, VIPS | AI, Asia, Cash, Defensive, energy, gold, value | CA FP | The AI boom has driven global stock markets with the Bloomberg AI index up 250% in three years, becoming a core driver of US economic growth. However, the manager draws parallels to the Dotcom bubble, noting over $3 trillion expected investment despite negligible revenue generation and intense competition that may destroy profitability. Gold was the Trust's largest investment and performed exceptionally well, rising 52% for the year. The manager maintains significant gold exposure as part of their defensive positioning amid market uncertainties and elevated valuations. The manager continues to find attractive value opportunities despite expensive markets, purchasing undervalued companies like Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal trading at low multiples with strong fundamentals. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 600938 CH, HES | Capital discipline, downside protection, free cash flow, long-term, Quality | - | The letter emphasizes long-term ownership of high-quality businesses with durable competitive advantages, conservative balance sheets, and consistent free cash flow generation. Management argues that short-term market volatility and macro noise create opportunities to accumulate strong franchises at reasonable valuations. The focus remains on disciplined capital allocation and downside protection rather than market timing. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Aug 1 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | 600938 CH, HES | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | DXS AU | - | - | |
| Dec 31 2022 | 2022 Q4 | 600938 CH, HES | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | 600938 CH | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled | |
| 2025 Q2 |
QualityThe company emphasizes investing in businesses with excellent economics, durable competitive advantages, and high-integrity management. This quality focus is evident in concentrated equity holdings and operating business acquisitions. |
Durable Advantages Management Quality Economic Moats Competitive Position |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | Fund Letters | Willy Packer | CA FP | Carrefour S.A. | Consumer Staples | Food Retail | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | dividends, retail, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 0001.HK | The Fund has owned shares of CK Hutchison for many years over which time the company has created a significant amount of value through operational income from its varied business lines, but also through well-timed business purchases and dispositions. There is, in our view, considerable shareholder alignment with the controlling Li family who built CK Hutchison and continues to control the company today. What is new, in our view, is a generational change of family leadership and a likely frustration with serial undervaluation in recent years. Several bold resource conversion transactions appear to be in the works, the most high-profile of which is CK Hutchison's ongoing effort to sell one of the world's largest and most valuable portfolios of container terminals. When viewed collectively, CK Hutchison is actively pursuing large-scale, value-creating or value-realizing transactions within each of its largest business units, representing the vast majority of its underlying business value. |
| BABA | Alibaba was a detractor during the quarter after the company reported mixed fiscal Q2 results. While cloud revenue growth accelerated and margins remained stable, the core commerce business struggled with slowing growth and significant profit pressure, particularly in the quick commerce segment where heavy investment and intense competition led to a sharp decline in profitability. |
| BIDU | Baidu up 47% |
| CA.PA | Carrefour is one of the world's largest food retailers with #1 and #2 positions in Brazil and France, respectively. Management has been making steady progress improving the business and refocusing on core markets. Trading at 8x earnings and yielding 7%, the shares look compelling. |
| CNC | Centene is one of America's largest health insurers. We purchased it in August after its share price collapsed, due to rising healthcare costs squeezing its profits. Longer term, profits should recover as the company reprices its policies. |
| GSK | Glaxo is one of the world's leading pharmaceutical companies. Its share price has been stagnant for years despite solid earnings growth, and on 10x earnings, it excites us. |
| J36.SI | our Asian investments performed strongly with Alibaba and Jardine Matheson up 63% |
| NXE | NexGen Energy (NXE) which is a pre-production uranium company that is on the cusp of receiving federal approval for full scale development of its world-class Arrow deposit. NexGen added 4% to our net returns as it progressed closer to a federally approved project. Additionally, it provided fantastic drill results from another deposit (Patterson Corridor East, just 3.5km from Arrow), and continued to benefit from the supportive nuclear narrative spreading globally. |
| PRX.AS | Prosus is a core, long-term holding primarily valued for its substantial stake in Tencent, a company we believe has significant growth potential and a strong global competitive advantage. A key element of our thesis is that Prosus's current market capitalization is less than the value of its Tencent holding alone. In addition to the Tencent stake, Prosus holds an estimated $35 billion in other listed and unlisted assets. |
| PYPL | By looking at their Rnancials, FactSet, PayPal, Adobe, and Salesforce seem to be doing Rne. The market, however, is reading subdued revenue growth as a sign of increased competition on their core oSerings. These companies' outlooks look more di'cult than their past. |
| VAL | Examples include Tidewater, Valaris, Constellation Brands, Diageo and Trex. We have discussed TDW and VAL previously. VAL: ~$75M repurchased in the most recent quarter; ~$600M program ongoing |
| VIPS | During the quarter, Chinese online discount retailer Vipshop Holdings Ltd., Canadian auto parts manufacturer Magna International and Swiss pharma Novartis AG were sold as each reached target valuation limits. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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