| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | 21.5% |
The Investigator Trust delivered strong returns of 21.5% in 2025, outperforming both Australian and global markets, driven primarily by a 52% gain in gold and strong performance from Asian equity holdings including Alibaba and Baidu. Despite this success, the manager maintains a cautious stance, holding nearly half the portfolio in cash and gold due to concerns about elevated market valuations and economic headwinds. The manager draws parallels between the current AI boom and the Dotcom bubble, noting over $3 trillion in expected AI investment despite negligible revenue generation. Key risks include record-high US stock valuations, consumer stress from inflation and higher rates, rising unemployment, and unsustainable government debt levels. The portfolio remains defensively positioned with a geographic focus on Asia where better value opportunities exist. Recent additions include undervalued companies like Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal, purchased at attractive multiples despite market-wide expensive valuations.
Despite strong performance driven by gold and Asian equities, the manager maintains defensive positioning with significant cash and gold holdings due to elevated market valuations, economic headwinds, and parallels to historical technology bubbles.
The manager maintains a cautious outlook given elevated market valuations and economic headwinds, continuing to hold significant cash and gold positions while selectively finding value opportunities in undervalued securities.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 0001.HK, AQN, BABA, BIDU, CA.PA, CEO, CNC, GSK, J36.SI, NE, NXE, PBR, PRX.AS, PYPL, SDRL, VAL, VIPS | AI, Asia, Cash, Defensive, energy, gold, value | CA FP | Strong 21.5% returns driven by gold and Asian equities, but manager maintains defensive positioning with significant cash holdings due to elevated valuations and AI bubble concerns. Portfolio skewed toward Asia for better value opportunities, with recent purchases of undervalued names like PayPal and Carrefour trading at attractive multiples despite broader market risks. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 0001.HK, 017670.KS, AQN, BABA, BIDU, BKY.AX, CNOOC, DG, INDF.JK, JARDINE.SI, NE, NXE, PBR, PRX.AS, SDRL, SRUUF, VAL, VIPS, YCA.L | Asia, China, Defensive, gold, oil, technology, value |
VIPS BABA BIDU 0700.HK CEO PBR JMHLY 0001.HK 017670.KS INDF.JK |
US markets are dangerously overvalued after historic gains while facing record debt and disruptive tariffs. Asia offers superior value with Chinese tech trading at half US peer valuations. Portfolio defensively positioned with 52% cash and gold while selectively investing in undervalued Asian equities and energy companies. Capital preservation prioritized during precarious market environment. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | 0762.HK, 0941.HK, BABA, BIDU, BKY.L, CNOOC, HES, J36.SI, NE, NHC.AX, NXE, PRX, SDRL, STNG, U.TO, VAL, YCA.L | Cash, China, oil, uranium, US Markets, Valuations, value | - | Defensive positioning with sizeable cash amid extreme US market valuations at 37x Shiller P/E. Capitalizing on undervalued Chinese technology and telecom companies trading at massive discounts to western peers. Energy and uranium exposure through quality assets. Avoiding overvalued US markets while positioning for opportunities in undervalued emerging markets. |
| Aug 1 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ERA.AX, RIO | Asset Management, Australia, Corporate Governance, Mining, Shareholder rights, uranium | ERA.AX | Packer & Co condemns ERA's board for failing to protect the $50 billion Jabiluka uranium deposit from government rejection of lease renewal. Despite investing $80 million, the fund argues Rio Tinto as majority shareholder orchestrated this outcome while operating environmentally destructive iron ore mines elsewhere, destroying minority shareholder value through poor governance. |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | 0762.HK, 0941.HK, AAPL, AMZN, BABA, BAYRY, BKY.AX, CNOOC, CVX, ERA.AX, GOOGL, HES, META, MSFT, NHC.AX, NVDA, SRUUF, STNG, XOM, YCA.L | China, energy, oil, Recession, technology, uranium, value |
CEO HES 0941.HK ERA.AX 9988.HK |
Defensive value fund focused on profitable companies at deep discounts, particularly Chinese equities and energy. Largest holding CNOOC trades at 4x P/E while uranium exposure benefits from nuclear adoption. Manager extremely cautious on market bubble conditions with Shiller PE at 32x, maintaining 50% equity allocation despite quality holdings trading at massive discounts to western peers. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | BABA, BAYRY, BKY.AX, CEO, CHL, CHU, ERA.AX, HES, NHC.AX, STNG | Banking, China, energy, inflation, interest rates, real estate, Recession, value | - | Investigator Trust maintains a defensive stance with 42% cash as the manager sees the world economy at a turning point. Decades of ultra-low rates created unsustainable debt bubbles now unwinding through aggressive monetary tightening. Banking stress, commercial real estate collapse, and bubble-like tech valuations signal recession ahead. Portfolio holds undervalued energy and Chinese stocks. |
| Dec 31 2022 | 2022 Q4 | 600938 CH, HES | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | 600938 CH | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe AI boom has driven global stock markets with the Bloomberg AI index up 250% in three years, but the manager draws parallels to historical technology bubbles like the Dotcom crash. Over $3 trillion is expected to be invested in AI despite negligible revenue generation, with intense competition potentially destroying profitability similar to previous technology revolutions. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Bubble Speculation |
GoldGold was the Trust's largest investment and delivered exceptional performance, up 52% for the year. The manager continues to hold nearly half of the trust's assets in cash and gold as a defensive positioning given global stock markets at all-time highs and various risks. |
Precious Metals Safe Haven Defensive | |
EnergyEnergy investments have been resilient despite softer oil prices and remain incredibly cheap while continuing to pay huge dividends. Russian energy and gold stocks account for 8.8% of the Trust and are valued at a 50% discount to their traded prices on the Moscow Exchange. |
Oil Natural Gas Dividends | |
Credit StressUnable to absorb rising costs, people are falling behind on their debt repayments. Delinquencies on credit cards, student loans and car loans have reached levels last seen during the GFC, indicating significant consumer financial stress. |
Consumer Debt Delinquencies Financial Stress | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ChinaThe manager has significantly increased exposure to Chinese technology companies, viewing them as attractively valued compared to US peers. Chinese tech giants trade at roughly half the valuation of US counterparts despite being industry leaders with solid balance sheets and growth potential. |
Technology Valuation Growth Asia |
OilThe portfolio maintains exposure to undervalued oil companies including CNOOC and Petrobras, which trade at 4-6x earnings compared to 15-16x for US majors. The manager also holds Russian energy companies at significant discounts due to sanctions. |
Energy Valuation Emerging Markets | |
GoldGold represents 10% of the portfolio as part of the defensive positioning strategy. The manager views gold as a hedge during these precarious times when preservation of capital is the priority. |
Precious Metals Hedge Defense | |
ValueThe manager is focused on finding undervalued opportunities, particularly in Asia where stocks trade at attractive valuations compared to expensive US markets. Asian conglomerates trade at 7x earnings and pay large dividends. |
Valuation Dividends Asia | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ChinaChinese stocks offer exceptional value with technology companies trading at massive discounts to western peers despite strong fundamentals. The fund holds 8% in leading Chinese tech firms including Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent which are highly profitable with huge cash balances. Chinese telecom companies continue to generate strong returns and remain attractively priced at large discounts. |
Technology Telecoms Value Discounts Manufacturing |
UraniumNexGen Energy represents the fund's top uranium holding at 3% after the Australian government confiscated ERA's Jabiluka deposit. Based in Canada, NexGen holds the largest and lowest cost uranium project under development globally, positioning it as the premier uranium investment opportunity. |
Nuclear Mining Development Canada | |
OilThe fund maintains significant exposure to oil and gas companies including CNOOC at 9.4% and Hess at 6.5% of the portfolio. Russian oil investments continue generating huge profits despite trading restrictions and 58% valuation discounts. Oil stocks have been among the fund's best performers alongside gold and Chinese telecoms. |
Energy Russia Profits Valuation | |
ValueThe manager emphasizes finding wonderful value in undervalued markets while avoiding overvalued assets. History shows the best opportunities arise during periods of fear and uncertainty, with current focus on markets offering attractive valuations compared to expensive US stocks trading at record highs. |
Opportunity Contrarian Undervalued Markets | |
| 2024 Q2 |
UraniumJabiluka is described as arguably the world's best uranium deposit with resources worth over $50 billion that could power 1% of the world's energy grid with carbon-free electricity for 30 years. The Northern Territory Government rejected the 10-year renewal of the Jabiluka mineral lease, extinguishing ERA's main asset. The development of Jabiluka is characterized as clearly in the national interest for clean energy needs. |
Nuclear Clean Energy Mining Resources Energy Transition |
MiningThe letter extensively discusses mining operations, comparing ERA's underground Jabiluka project to Rio Tinto's massive open pit operations in Western Australia. Rio Tinto operates 15 mines within and around Karijini National Park, moving over a billion tonnes annually of waste and ore across 200 kilometers. The environmental impact comparison between underground versus open pit mining is a central focus. |
Iron Ore Open Pit Underground Environmental Impact Operations | |
| 2023 Q4 |
OilThe fund holds CNOOC as its largest position at 10.4%, China's premier oil company producing 2% of world oil. CNOOC trades at just 4x P/E and is rapidly expanding output with focus on offshore China and Guyana where it holds 25% interest in the enormous Stabroek discovery alongside Exxon and Hess. |
CNOOC Offshore Guyana Stabroek Production |
UraniumThe fund has 8% invested in nuclear energy with 4% in physical uranium through Sprott Uranium Trust and Yellowcake, and 4% in ERA and Berkeley which own two of the world's largest undeveloped uranium orebodies. Uranium price has soared from US$20 to US$90 per pound over the last 5 years as countries race to adopt nuclear power. |
Nuclear Sprott Yellowcake ERA Berkeley | |
ChinaThe fund has significant exposure to Chinese companies including CNOOC, China Mobile, China Unicom, and recently increased Alibaba to 3%. These companies trade at massive discounts to western peers despite strong fundamentals, with China Mobile and China Unicom growing rapidly in cloud computing which now constitutes roughly a quarter of their revenues. |
Alibaba Telecom Cloud Discount Mobile | |
ValueThe fund focuses on companies among the 100 most profitable in the world trading at deep discounts. Holdings like CNOOC at 4x P/E, Alibaba at 7x, and China Mobile at 8x represent exceptional value compared to market valuations. The manager emphasizes investing in outstanding assets and profitability at reasonable prices. |
Profitable Discount Earnings Multiple Assets | |
| 2023 Q2 |
InflationCentral banks printed money believing it would have no consequences for inflation or interest rates, but inflation rose from 2% to 9% in a year. Core underlying inflation is proving hard to eradicate as wage increases spur prices, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 5% in just over a year. |
Central Banks Interest Rates Wage Growth Federal Reserve Monetary Policy |
Commercial Real EstateProperty prices are at a major inflection point as commercial lending rates rocketed from 2% to 6.3%, curtailing buyer appetite and causing prices to fall. Office vacancies soar to 18% in the USA with values sinking 35% since 2021, while major property companies see share prices collapse 50-80%. |
Office Vacancy Property Values Lending Rates Real Estate Investment Trusts Commercial Property | |
Credit StressBanks face massive unrealized losses on bond portfolios as the bond market crashed 23%. Four major banks have failed this year including Credit Suisse, while $1 trillion of deposits have left the US banking system flowing into money market funds as depositors seek higher yields. |
Bank Failures Bond Losses Deposit Flight Credit Risk Banking Crisis | |
AIMajor tech companies have skyrocketed in value this year on enthusiasm around Artificial Intelligence, with chip company Nvidia now capitalized at $1 trillion on a P/E ratio of 200x, creating flashbacks to the first Dot Com Bubble when hardware companies reached similar extremes. |
Nvidia Tech Valuations Semiconductor Bubble Hardware | |
OilThe portfolio includes significant energy exposure with CNOOC as the largest holding at 9% and Hess at 7.5%, along with Russian energy investments including Rosneft and Gazprom that constitute 7% of the portfolio despite sanctions and valuation discounts. |
CNOOC Hess Russian Energy Energy Exposure Sanctions | |
ChinaChinese investments feature prominently with China Mobile at 5.5% and China Unicom at 3.1% of the portfolio, along with Alibaba at 1.2%, representing significant exposure to Chinese telecommunications and technology companies. |
China Mobile China Unicom Alibaba Chinese Telecom Chinese Technology |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | Fund Letters | Willy Packer | CA FP | Carrefour S.A. | Consumer Staples | Food Retail | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | dividends, retail, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | VIPS | Vipshop Holdings Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | China, Consumer Discretionary, Discount Platform, e-commerce, fashion, online retail, technology, valuation | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | China, Consumer Discretionary, e-commerce, growth, internet services, market leader, technology, valuation | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | BIDU | Baidu Inc | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, China, Communication Services, growth, internet services, search engine, technology, valuation | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | 0700.HK | Tencent Holdings Limited | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | HKEX | China, Communication Services, Gaming, growth, internet services, social media, technology, valuation | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | CEO | CNOOC Limited | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | China, commodity, Emerging markets, energy, offshore drilling, Oil & Gas, valuation, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | PBR | Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Brazil, Emerging markets, energy, offshore drilling, Oil & Gas, Pre-salt, valuation, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | JMHLY | Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited | Industrials | Industrial Conglomerates | Bull | OTC | Asia, conglomerate, Diversified, dividend, Emerging markets, growth, Industrial, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | 0001.HK | CK Hutchison Holdings Limited | Industrials | Industrial Conglomerates | Bull | HKEX | Asia, conglomerate, Diversified, dividend, infrastructure, Ports, telecommunications, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | 017670.KS | SK Telecom Co Ltd | Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | KRX | 5G, Asia, Communication Services, infrastructure, South Korea, technology, telecommunications, Wireless | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | INDF.JK | Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT | Consumer Staples | Packaged Foods & Meats | Bull | IDX | Africa, Asia, consumer staples, Emerging markets, Food Manufacturing, growth, Instant Noodles, Packaged Foods | Login |
| Aug 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | ERA.AX | Energy Resources of Australia | Energy | Uranium & Nuclear Energy | Bear | ASX | Asset Stripping, Australia, Bear, Corporate Governance, Government Regulation, Lease Renewal, Mining, minority shareholders, nuclear energy, Rehabilitation, Rio Tinto, Traditional Owners, uranium | Login |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | CEO | CNOOC Limited | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | China, energy, Guyana, low valuation, offshore drilling, Oil & Gas, Stabroek Discovery, Value | Login |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | HES | Hess Corporation | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Chevron Merger, energy, Guyana, M&A, Oil & Gas, Stabroek Discovery, Value Realization | Login |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | 0941.HK | China Mobile Limited | Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | China, Cloud computing, Discount to peers, Mobile Services, Technology Transformation, telecommunications, Value | Login |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | ERA.AX | Energy Resources of Australia Limited | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | Australian Securities Exchange | Australia, commodity, energy transition, Mining, nuclear energy, Resource Appreciation, uranium | Login |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Packer & Co | 9988.HK | Alibaba Group Holding Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | China, Cloud computing, Digital transformation, e-commerce, market leader, technology, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AQN | Algonquin Power and Utilities 2.0 |
| BABA | In equities, our Asian investments performed strongly with Alibaba and Jardine Matheson up 63% |
| BIDU | In equities, our Asian investments performed strongly with Alibaba and Jardine Matheson up 63%, and Baidu up 47% |
| CA.PA | Since June, we have bought shares in Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal. Carrefour is one of the world's largest food retailers with #1 and #2 positions in Brazil and France, respectively. Management has been making steady progress improving the business and refocusing on core markets. Trading at 8x earnings and yielding 7%, the shares look compelling. |
| CNC | Since June, we have bought shares in Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal. Centene is one of America's largest health insurers. We purchased it in August after its share price collapsed, due to rising healthcare costs squeezing its profits. Longer term, profits should recover as the company reprices its policies. |
| GSK | Since June, we have bought shares in Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal. Glaxo is one of the world's leading pharmaceutical companies. Its share price has been stagnant for years despite solid earnings growth, and on 10x earnings, it excites us. |
| J36.SI | In equities, our Asian investments performed strongly with Alibaba and Jardine Matheson up 63% |
| NXE | NexGen Energy 4.1 |
| PBR | Our energy investments have been resilient despite softer oil prices. They remain incredibly cheap and continue to pay huge dividends. Petrobras 3.1 |
| PRX.AS | Prosus 1.9 |
| PYPL | Since June, we have bought shares in Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal. PayPal was a big winner of the internet era, giving its 500 million users a safe and simple way to pay online. It remains highly profitable, yet its share price has fallen over 80% from its 2021 highs. It is valued at only 10x earnings despite a resilient core business and opportunities to accelerate growth. |
| SDRL | Seadrill 0.6 |
| VAL | Valaris 0.7 |
| VIPS | Vipshop 1.9 |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
