Palm Harbour Capital

Investor Summary

Peter Smith, CFA, serves as Portfolio Manager and Chief Investment Officer of Palm Harbour Capital LLP, bringing extensive experience in European equity analysis. Smith holds a BBA in International Business and German from Texas Tech University and a Masters in Finance with concentration in Investment Management from London Business School. Prior to founding Palm Harbour Capital in 2018, he worked as a senior equity analyst at Cobas Asset Management alongside Francisco García Paramés, one of Spain's most respected value investors. Smith leads a lean, focused team including Equity Research Analyst Konstantinos N. Kontos, maintaining operational efficiency while delivering strong long-term performance since the fund's April 2019 inception.

Fund Strategy

The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists. We are research-driven, fundamental, long-term value investors aiming to provide superior long-term absolute investment returns through rigorous analysis, variant perception, and patience. We only buy securities that we believe are trading at a significant discount to our assessment of intrinsic value, focusing on high-quality companies with sustainable competitive advantages and strong cash flows. Investment is a long-term business where performance is underpinned by patience, and we achieve margin of safety when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility.

ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION	QUARTERLY	YTD
10%	-0.56%	-0.56%

Executive Summary

Palm Harbour Capital lost 0.56% in Q1 2026 but remains extremely optimistic about portfolio prospects. The fund focuses on undervalued companies across Europe and globally, maintaining a concentrated approach with over 110% estimated upside to NAV. Top contributor Vitzrocell, a South Korean lithium battery manufacturer, gained 95.5% as military and oil & gas applications drove strong growth. Norwegian oil producer Vår Energi contributed 117 basis points, benefiting from record production and strong free cash flow generation with oil above $100/boe. The manager introduced a detailed analysis of new holding Cirsa Enterprises, a Spanish gaming company with operations across multiple jurisdictions. Key detractors included Ibstock, affected by subdued UK housing markets, and Vivendi, pressured by AI concerns around Universal Music Group. The portfolio trades at 6.3x P/E with 18% FCF yield and 28% return on tangible capital. Management maintains long-term value discipline, taking advantage of volatility while focusing on micro-economics of individual businesses rather than macro noise.

Forward Outlook

The manager is extremely optimistic about the portfolio's prospects and believes they will reach their compounded annual return aspiration over time. They continue to believe this is a great time to be a value investor and are very excited about the medium-term prospects for the portfolio.

Date	Letter	Tickers	Keywords	Pitches	Quick Takes
May 5 2026	2026 Q1	BWO.OL, CNVRG.PS, DAN.MI, IBST.L, PRT.MI, UMG.AS, VAR.OL, VIV.PA	energy, Europe, gaming, long-term, small caps, undervalued, value	-	Palm Harbour Capital's concentrated European value strategy delivered -0.56% in Q1 2026 despite strong individual contributors including South Korean battery maker Vitzrocell (+95.5%) and Norwegian oil producer Vår Energi. The portfolio trades at attractive 6.3x P/E with significant upside potential. Management remains extremely optimistic about medium-term prospects while maintaining disciplined long-term value approach.
Jan 20 2026	2025 Q4	001910.KS, 047440.KS, 086280.KS, 6345.T, ASLI.L, ATYM.L, BSRT, BWO.OL, CIR.MI, CNVRG.PS, DAN.MI, DITO.PS, FLRY3.SA, GLO.PS, KRI.AT, LOMA.BA, MDIA3.SA, PTEC.L, SGF.MI, TEL.PS, TRE.OL, VIV.PA, WOSG.L, WWI.OL	Argentina, Broadband, Cash Generation, Copper, global, Governance, Steel, value	LOMA ATYM LN 012030 KS DAN IM RHIM LN 6345 JP KRI GA 284740 KS VIV FP BRSL	Palm Harbour delivered 16% returns in 2025 through disciplined value investing in cash-generative businesses. Key contributors included Argentine cement producer Loma Negra following Milei's victory and copper miner Atalaya Mining. The fund actively managed governance risks while adding Philippines telecom Converge ICT. Portfolio trades at 8.1x P/E with 95% upside to NAV, positioning for strong medium-term prospects.
Nov 13 2025	2025 Q3	111770.KS, AMZN, ATYM.L, CAL.MI, CNVG.PS, DAN.MI, ESP.MI, GOOGL, INDF.JK, LOMA.BA, META, MSFT, NVDA, RHI.L, UMG.AS, VIV.PA	AI, Asia, Copper, Europe, LatAM, small caps, value	-	Palm Harbour Capital delivered 1.57% in Q3 while deliberately avoiding the AI concentration dominating markets. The fund focuses on overlooked small-caps across Asia, Latin America, and Europe with strong cash flows and attractive valuations. Portfolio trades at 9.1x P/E with 91% upside potential, offering compelling diversification from dangerous US mega-cap concentration that now exceeds 2000 bubble levels.
Aug 5 2025	2025 Q2	021240.KS, 086280.KS, 192400.KS, 284740.KS, 5336.KL, 7965.T, HAN.L, HANA.L, PNDXB.ST, PORT3.SA, SHOT.ST	gaming, global, inflation, NAV, small caps, tariffs, value	192400.KS	Palm Harbour delivered strong Q2 returns of 5.97% with portfolio trading at 8.9x P/E and 97% upside to NAV. Manager extremely optimistic on small cap global value opportunities while avoiding overvalued US markets. Focus on companies with pricing power to outpace inflation amid concerns over tariffs and unsustainable government debt levels.
Apr 22 2025	2025 Q1	4628.T, 6298.T, DAN.MI, ENOG.L, IGT.MI, JST.DE, LTO.MI, NOEJ.DE, OCWN.L, ODET.PA, PPA.AT, SUI.JO, TISG.MI, VRLA.PA	Europe, gaming, small caps, tariffs, Trade Policy, undervalued, value, volatility	SUI.JO	Palm Harbour Capital gained 2.63% in Q1 2025, focusing on undervalued small-cap companies with strong cash generation. Despite Trump tariff concerns creating market volatility, the manager sees buying opportunities in overlooked securities trading at 8.6x P/E with 19% FCF yields. Portfolio positioned defensively with limited US trade exposure while maintaining optimistic outlook on intrinsic value convergence.
Mar 5 2025	2024 Q4	9404.T, BOL.PA, EOAN.L, GSMI.PS, IGT.MI, LTO.MI, MDIA3.SA, ODET.PA, OWIL.L, PPA.AT, PRT.MI, TKA.VI, UMG.AS, VIV.PA	Europe, gaming, global, inflation, Media, Politics, small caps, value	ODET.PA	Palm Harbour Capital's global small cap value fund returned +12.7% in 2024 despite Q4 weakness. The portfolio trades at 8.5x P/E with 98% estimated upside, focusing on overlooked securities while avoiding overvalued US markets. Key holdings include gaming, media, and industrial companies across Europe and Asia. Management remains optimistic about medium-term prospects for disciplined value investing.
Oct 16 2024	2024 Q3	CLNX.MC, DAL.L, DAN.MI, GSMI.PS, IBST.L, JST.DE, KRIKRI.AT, MDIA3.SA, OCI.AS, PORT3.SA, SYENS.BR, UNIR.MI, VAR.OL, VRLA.PA	Cash Generation, Cyclical, Europe, small cap, takeovers, value	MDIA3.SA	Palm Harbour delivered +4.4% in Q3 with portfolio trading at 8.9x P/E and 97% upside to NAV. Two takeover offers contributed performance while OCI moves toward liquidation with $11.6 billion asset sales. Manager remains extremely optimistic about value opportunities, positioning in quality businesses at cyclical lows with clear re-rating catalysts.
Jul 29 2024	2024 Q2	0FHO LN, CED IM, DAL LN, GSMI PM, IGT, LNA FP, OCI NA, PPA GA, SOLB BB, TKA AV, WIX LN	-	-
Apr 15 2024	2024 Q1	1952.T, 9404.T, ALL.AX, CIR.MI, EVRI, FDJ.PA, FLTR.L, HAT.L, IGT, LNW, OCWN, OPAP.AT, PBL.TO, PPA.AT, SYENS.BR, TISG.MI	Buybacks, dividends, Europe, gaming, Media, Ports, small caps, value	IGT	Palm Harbour delivered 4.6% in Q1 with a concentrated value portfolio trading at 8.9x P/E and 101% estimated upside. Strong performance from Japanese holdings benefiting from corporate governance improvements and Brazilian port operations. Added Greek port exposure betting on trade normalization. Management extremely optimistic about medium-term value realization opportunities.
Jan 31 2024	2023 Q4	BAYN.DE, IGT, MLCO, OCI.AS, RHIM.L, SOLB.BR, SYENS.BR, TKA.VI	Chemicals, Europe, Japan, special situations, value	SOLB.BR	Palm Harbour delivered 6.3% in Q4 2023 with 13.1% full-year returns, driven by successful special situations including Solvay's spin-off and increased Japanese exposure capitalizing on corporate governance reforms. The concentrated portfolio trades at 8.1x P/E with significant upside potential, positioning for continued value creation through activist situations and undervalued European companies.
Oct 30 2023	2023 Q3	6966.T, AVID, DAN.MI, DHG.L, LNA.PA, OCI.AS, OCN.L, OVS.MI, PCAR3.SA, PORT3.SA, PRT.MI, STEAV.HE, TKA.VI, VRLA.PA	Europe, free cash flow, rates, small caps, Spin-Offs, value	OCN.L	European small-cap value fund targeting 10% FCF yields gained 1.86% in Q3 despite sector weakness. Portfolio trades at 7.5x P/E with 114% upside to NAV. Manager extremely optimistic about prospects, viewing current derating of quality companies with strong balance sheets as counterintuitive setup for exceptional future performance.
Aug 8 2023	2023 Q2	086280 KS, 200 HK, 4966 JP, IGT, LNA FP, LTMC IM, MTX GR, OCI NA, PRT IM, RHIM LN, VARRY	-	-
Apr 23 2023	2023 Q1	CAL.MI, CIR.MI, DAN.MI, GSMI.PS, IGT, IHRT, OCI.AS, PRT.MI, TESB.BR, TKA.VI, VAR.OL	Banking, dividends, Europe, portfolio, Steel, Telecommunications, value	TKA.VI	European value fund delivered 7.2% in Q1 2023 with portfolio trading at 8.5x P/E and 19% FCF yield. Strong performance from dividend growers like Ginebra San Miguel and industrial plays like Danieli. Added Telekom Austria position for defensive telecom model and tower spin-off catalyst. Manager extremely optimistic about value opportunities.
Nov 2 2023	2022 Q4	BOAVSTB BZ, CALT IM, IBST LN, IGT, IHRT, JST GR, LNA FP, MOH GA, MTX GR, RHIM LN, VRLA FP	-	-
Nov 15 2022	2022 Q3	4966 JP, BAYA GR, GPL SJ, GSMI PM, HAT LN, IGT, MHZ GR, OCI NA, ODF GR, RHIM SW, UNIR IM	-	-
Jun 30 2022	2022 Q2	BOAS3.SA, DNO.OL, IGT, IHRT, MOH.AT, OCI.AS, PRT.MI, RHI.L, VRLA.PA	commodities, energy, Europe, inflation, Recession, Refiners, small cap, value	VRLA.PA MOH.AT	Palm Harbour Capital's European small-cap value fund declined 8.5% in Q2 2022 amid inflation and recession fears, but management sees significant opportunity ahead. The portfolio trades at 7x P/E with 134% estimated upside, led by refining and industrial holdings. Despite macro headwinds, the manager remains bullish on deploying cash into quality companies at attractive valuations.
Mar 31 2022	2022 Q1	BAYN.DE, BOAS3.SA, DAN.MI, DNO.OL, JST.DE, MLCO, OCI.AS, PRT.MI, RHI.L, VAR.OL, WIX.L	commodities, energy, Europe, Fertilizers, inflation, mid cap, value	WIX.L BOAS3.SA	Palm Harbour Capital's Q1 2022 performance was supported by fertilizer and energy exposure amid commodity inflation from the Ukraine war. The fund is positioned with high-quality companies having pricing power and hard assets to navigate the inflationary environment. Despite short-term volatility, management sees significant portfolio upside and maintains optimism for mid-teens compound returns.
Dec 30 2021	2021 Q4	0041.HK, 4966.T, AVID, IGT, IHRT, OCI.AS, OVS.MI	Asia, Europe, Fertilizers, gaming, Hotels, inflation, value	-	Palm Harbour Capital delivered 36.5% in 2021 by owning out-of-favor value stocks with strong cash flows and pricing power. The manager sees Q4 as a tipping point with central banks acknowledging inflation and growth stock bubbles deflating. Portfolio includes specialty chemicals, gaming, fertilizers, and Hong Kong real estate, with over 100% estimated upside despite near-term volatility expectations.
Sep 30 2021	2021 Q3	AVID, DAN.MI, GSMI.PS, HP3A.DE, IGT, MLCO, OCI.AS, OVS.MI, PRT.MI, RHIM.L, UNIR.MI	Europe, Fertilizers, gaming, retail, small caps, Steel, value	HP3A.DE OVS.MI	Palm Harbour Capital's Q3 performance was flat despite strong company fundamentals as markets took profits after a strong run. The fund maintains concentrated exposure to undervalued European small caps including fertilizer producer OCI, gaming company IGT, and Italian retailers. Manager sees significant upside with portfolio trading at 10x P/E and 15% free cash flow yield.
Jun 24 2021	2021 Q2	4966.T, AVID, BFSA.DE, CIR.MI, DHG.L, ESP.MI, GSMI.PS, HAT.L, IGT, IHRT, ILD.PA, JST.DE, MLCO, RHIM.L, UNIE.MI	Europe, gaming, inflation, small caps, technology, value	4966.T GSMI.PS	Palm Harbour delivered strong Q2 performance of 12.41% through concentrated value investing in undervalued, cash-generating companies. Manager remains optimistic on portfolio prospects despite broader market concerns, adding Japanese specialty chemicals supplier C. Uyemura and Philippine gin producer Ginebra San Miguel while benefiting from strong performance in Avid Technology and International Game Technology.
-	2021 Q1	BALY, CEM.MI, ECOR3.SA, STERV.HE	discount, Europe, fundamentals, gaming, Recovery, Steel, value	CEM.MI STERV.HE	European value fund gained 18.8% in Q1 2021 as fundamental business improvements drove performance rather than factor rotation. Portfolio includes gaming, steel, electronics retail, and fertilizer companies trading at significant discounts. Manager sees 96% upside to NAV with strong cash generation metrics and expects continued value unlock as economic recovery benefits positioned companies.
-	2020 Q4	086280 KS, 200 HK, ARYN.SW, AVID, BAYN.DE, BFSA.DE, GYS.L, IGT, MLCO, MTX.DE, OCI.AS, PRT.MI, RHI.L, TRE.OL	Europe, gaming, Recovery, small caps, Steel, value	AVID	Palm Harbour delivered 23% Q4 returns through concentrated value investing in European small caps and global opportunities. Portfolio trades at 9x P/E with 104% upside, led by industrial recovery plays like RHI Magnesita and Befesa. Manager positioned for post-vaccine economic recovery while maintaining discipline on valuations and quality metrics.

Date

Letter

Tickers

Keywords

Pitches

Quick Takes

May 5 2026

2026 Q1

BWO.OL, CNVRG.PS, DAN.MI, IBST.L, PRT.MI, UMG.AS, VAR.OL, VIV.PA

energy, Europe, gaming, long-term, small caps, undervalued, value

Palm Harbour Capital's concentrated European value strategy delivered -0.56% in Q1 2026 despite strong individual contributors including South Korean battery maker Vitzrocell (+95.5%) and Norwegian oil producer Vår Energi. The portfolio trades at attractive 6.3x P/E with significant upside potential. Management remains extremely optimistic about medium-term prospects while maintaining disciplined long-term value approach.

Jan 20 2026

2025 Q4

001910.KS, 047440.KS, 086280.KS, 6345.T, ASLI.L, ATYM.L, BSRT, BWO.OL, CIR.MI, CNVRG.PS, DAN.MI, DITO.PS, FLRY3.SA, GLO.PS, KRI.AT, LOMA.BA, MDIA3.SA, PTEC.L, SGF.MI, TEL.PS, TRE.OL, VIV.PA, WOSG.L, WWI.OL

Argentina, Broadband, Cash Generation, Copper, global, Governance, Steel, value

LOMA
ATYM LN
012030 KS
DAN IM
RHIM LN
6345 JP
KRI GA
284740 KS
VIV FP
BRSL

Palm Harbour delivered 16% returns in 2025 through disciplined value investing in cash-generative businesses. Key contributors included Argentine cement producer Loma Negra following Milei's victory and copper miner Atalaya Mining. The fund actively managed governance risks while adding Philippines telecom Converge ICT. Portfolio trades at 8.1x P/E with 95% upside to NAV, positioning for strong medium-term prospects.

Nov 13 2025

2025 Q3

111770.KS, AMZN, ATYM.L, CAL.MI, CNVG.PS, DAN.MI, ESP.MI, GOOGL, INDF.JK, LOMA.BA, META, MSFT, NVDA, RHI.L, UMG.AS, VIV.PA

AI, Asia, Copper, Europe, LatAM, small caps, value

Palm Harbour Capital delivered 1.57% in Q3 while deliberately avoiding the AI concentration dominating markets. The fund focuses on overlooked small-caps across Asia, Latin America, and Europe with strong cash flows and attractive valuations. Portfolio trades at 9.1x P/E with 91% upside potential, offering compelling diversification from dangerous US mega-cap concentration that now exceeds 2000 bubble levels.

Aug 5 2025

2025 Q2

021240.KS, 086280.KS, 192400.KS, 284740.KS, 5336.KL, 7965.T, HAN.L, HANA.L, PNDXB.ST, PORT3.SA, SHOT.ST

gaming, global, inflation, NAV, small caps, tariffs, value

192400.KS

Palm Harbour delivered strong Q2 returns of 5.97% with portfolio trading at 8.9x P/E and 97% upside to NAV. Manager extremely optimistic on small cap global value opportunities while avoiding overvalued US markets. Focus on companies with pricing power to outpace inflation amid concerns over tariffs and unsustainable government debt levels.

Apr 22 2025

2025 Q1

4628.T, 6298.T, DAN.MI, ENOG.L, IGT.MI, JST.DE, LTO.MI, NOEJ.DE, OCWN.L, ODET.PA, PPA.AT, SUI.JO, TISG.MI, VRLA.PA

Europe, gaming, small caps, tariffs, Trade Policy, undervalued, value, volatility

SUI.JO

Palm Harbour Capital gained 2.63% in Q1 2025, focusing on undervalued small-cap companies with strong cash generation. Despite Trump tariff concerns creating market volatility, the manager sees buying opportunities in overlooked securities trading at 8.6x P/E with 19% FCF yields. Portfolio positioned defensively with limited US trade exposure while maintaining optimistic outlook on intrinsic value convergence.

Mar 5 2025

2024 Q4

9404.T, BOL.PA, EOAN.L, GSMI.PS, IGT.MI, LTO.MI, MDIA3.SA, ODET.PA, OWIL.L, PPA.AT, PRT.MI, TKA.VI, UMG.AS, VIV.PA

Europe, gaming, global, inflation, Media, Politics, small caps, value

ODET.PA

Palm Harbour Capital's global small cap value fund returned +12.7% in 2024 despite Q4 weakness. The portfolio trades at 8.5x P/E with 98% estimated upside, focusing on overlooked securities while avoiding overvalued US markets. Key holdings include gaming, media, and industrial companies across Europe and Asia. Management remains optimistic about medium-term prospects for disciplined value investing.

Oct 16 2024

2024 Q3

CLNX.MC, DAL.L, DAN.MI, GSMI.PS, IBST.L, JST.DE, KRIKRI.AT, MDIA3.SA, OCI.AS, PORT3.SA, SYENS.BR, UNIR.MI, VAR.OL, VRLA.PA

Cash Generation, Cyclical, Europe, small cap, takeovers, value

MDIA3.SA

Palm Harbour delivered +4.4% in Q3 with portfolio trading at 8.9x P/E and 97% upside to NAV. Two takeover offers contributed performance while OCI moves toward liquidation with $11.6 billion asset sales. Manager remains extremely optimistic about value opportunities, positioning in quality businesses at cyclical lows with clear re-rating catalysts.

Jul 29 2024

2024 Q2

0FHO LN, CED IM, DAL LN, GSMI PM, IGT, LNA FP, OCI NA, PPA GA, SOLB BB, TKA AV, WIX LN

Apr 15 2024

2024 Q1

1952.T, 9404.T, ALL.AX, CIR.MI, EVRI, FDJ.PA, FLTR.L, HAT.L, IGT, LNW, OCWN, OPAP.AT, PBL.TO, PPA.AT, SYENS.BR, TISG.MI

Buybacks, dividends, Europe, gaming, Media, Ports, small caps, value

IGT

Palm Harbour delivered 4.6% in Q1 with a concentrated value portfolio trading at 8.9x P/E and 101% estimated upside. Strong performance from Japanese holdings benefiting from corporate governance improvements and Brazilian port operations. Added Greek port exposure betting on trade normalization. Management extremely optimistic about medium-term value realization opportunities.

Jan 31 2024

2023 Q4

BAYN.DE, IGT, MLCO, OCI.AS, RHIM.L, SOLB.BR, SYENS.BR, TKA.VI

Chemicals, Europe, Japan, special situations, value

SOLB.BR

Palm Harbour delivered 6.3% in Q4 2023 with 13.1% full-year returns, driven by successful special situations including Solvay's spin-off and increased Japanese exposure capitalizing on corporate governance reforms. The concentrated portfolio trades at 8.1x P/E with significant upside potential, positioning for continued value creation through activist situations and undervalued European companies.

Oct 30 2023

2023 Q3

6966.T, AVID, DAN.MI, DHG.L, LNA.PA, OCI.AS, OCN.L, OVS.MI, PCAR3.SA, PORT3.SA, PRT.MI, STEAV.HE, TKA.VI, VRLA.PA

Europe, free cash flow, rates, small caps, Spin-Offs, value

OCN.L

European small-cap value fund targeting 10% FCF yields gained 1.86% in Q3 despite sector weakness. Portfolio trades at 7.5x P/E with 114% upside to NAV. Manager extremely optimistic about prospects, viewing current derating of quality companies with strong balance sheets as counterintuitive setup for exceptional future performance.

Aug 8 2023

2023 Q2

086280 KS, 200 HK, 4966 JP, IGT, LNA FP, LTMC IM, MTX GR, OCI NA, PRT IM, RHIM LN, VARRY

Apr 23 2023

2023 Q1

CAL.MI, CIR.MI, DAN.MI, GSMI.PS, IGT, IHRT, OCI.AS, PRT.MI, TESB.BR, TKA.VI, VAR.OL

Banking, dividends, Europe, portfolio, Steel, Telecommunications, value

TKA.VI

European value fund delivered 7.2% in Q1 2023 with portfolio trading at 8.5x P/E and 19% FCF yield. Strong performance from dividend growers like Ginebra San Miguel and industrial plays like Danieli. Added Telekom Austria position for defensive telecom model and tower spin-off catalyst. Manager extremely optimistic about value opportunities.

Nov 2 2023

2022 Q4

BOAVSTB BZ, CALT IM, IBST LN, IGT, IHRT, JST GR, LNA FP, MOH GA, MTX GR, RHIM LN, VRLA FP

Nov 15 2022

2022 Q3

4966 JP, BAYA GR, GPL SJ, GSMI PM, HAT LN, IGT, MHZ GR, OCI NA, ODF GR, RHIM SW, UNIR IM

Jun 30 2022

2022 Q2

BOAS3.SA, DNO.OL, IGT, IHRT, MOH.AT, OCI.AS, PRT.MI, RHI.L, VRLA.PA

commodities, energy, Europe, inflation, Recession, Refiners, small cap, value

VRLA.PA
MOH.AT

Palm Harbour Capital's European small-cap value fund declined 8.5% in Q2 2022 amid inflation and recession fears, but management sees significant opportunity ahead. The portfolio trades at 7x P/E with 134% estimated upside, led by refining and industrial holdings. Despite macro headwinds, the manager remains bullish on deploying cash into quality companies at attractive valuations.

Mar 31 2022

2022 Q1

BAYN.DE, BOAS3.SA, DAN.MI, DNO.OL, JST.DE, MLCO, OCI.AS, PRT.MI, RHI.L, VAR.OL, WIX.L

commodities, energy, Europe, Fertilizers, inflation, mid cap, value

WIX.L
BOAS3.SA

Palm Harbour Capital's Q1 2022 performance was supported by fertilizer and energy exposure amid commodity inflation from the Ukraine war. The fund is positioned with high-quality companies having pricing power and hard assets to navigate the inflationary environment. Despite short-term volatility, management sees significant portfolio upside and maintains optimism for mid-teens compound returns.

Dec 30 2021

2021 Q4

0041.HK, 4966.T, AVID, IGT, IHRT, OCI.AS, OVS.MI

Asia, Europe, Fertilizers, gaming, Hotels, inflation, value

Palm Harbour Capital delivered 36.5% in 2021 by owning out-of-favor value stocks with strong cash flows and pricing power. The manager sees Q4 as a tipping point with central banks acknowledging inflation and growth stock bubbles deflating. Portfolio includes specialty chemicals, gaming, fertilizers, and Hong Kong real estate, with over 100% estimated upside despite near-term volatility expectations.

Sep 30 2021

2021 Q3

AVID, DAN.MI, GSMI.PS, HP3A.DE, IGT, MLCO, OCI.AS, OVS.MI, PRT.MI, RHIM.L, UNIR.MI

Europe, Fertilizers, gaming, retail, small caps, Steel, value

HP3A.DE
OVS.MI

Palm Harbour Capital's Q3 performance was flat despite strong company fundamentals as markets took profits after a strong run. The fund maintains concentrated exposure to undervalued European small caps including fertilizer producer OCI, gaming company IGT, and Italian retailers. Manager sees significant upside with portfolio trading at 10x P/E and 15% free cash flow yield.

Jun 24 2021

2021 Q2

4966.T, AVID, BFSA.DE, CIR.MI, DHG.L, ESP.MI, GSMI.PS, HAT.L, IGT, IHRT, ILD.PA, JST.DE, MLCO, RHIM.L, UNIE.MI

Europe, gaming, inflation, small caps, technology, value

4966.T
GSMI.PS

Palm Harbour delivered strong Q2 performance of 12.41% through concentrated value investing in undervalued, cash-generating companies. Manager remains optimistic on portfolio prospects despite broader market concerns, adding Japanese specialty chemicals supplier C. Uyemura and Philippine gin producer Ginebra San Miguel while benefiting from strong performance in Avid Technology and International Game Technology.

2021 Q1

BALY, CEM.MI, ECOR3.SA, STERV.HE

discount, Europe, fundamentals, gaming, Recovery, Steel, value

CEM.MI
STERV.HE

European value fund gained 18.8% in Q1 2021 as fundamental business improvements drove performance rather than factor rotation. Portfolio includes gaming, steel, electronics retail, and fertilizer companies trading at significant discounts. Manager sees 96% upside to NAV with strong cash generation metrics and expects continued value unlock as economic recovery benefits positioned companies.

2020 Q4

086280 KS, 200 HK, ARYN.SW, AVID, BAYN.DE, BFSA.DE, GYS.L, IGT, MLCO, MTX.DE, OCI.AS, PRT.MI, RHI.L, TRE.OL

Europe, gaming, Recovery, small caps, Steel, value

AVID

Palm Harbour delivered 23% Q4 returns through concentrated value investing in European small caps and global opportunities. Portfolio trades at 9x P/E with 104% upside, led by industrial recovery plays like RHI Magnesita and Befesa. Manager positioned for post-vaccine economic recovery while maintaining discipline on valuations and quality metrics.

QUARTER	THEMES	TAGS
2026 Q1	Gaming Detailed analysis of Cirsa Enterprises, a Spanish omni-channel gaming company with operations across Spain, Latin America and Italy. The company operates 460 casinos, 80,000 slot machines and has a rapidly growing online gaming division. Management expects solid growth driven by online sports betting expansion and casino expansion strategy.	Casinos Sports Betting Online Gaming Spain Latin America
	Oil Strong performance from Vår Energi, the Norwegian oil and gas operator, which delivered transformational year by sanctioning 10 new development projects. The company is well positioned for substantial free cash flow with oil trading well above $100/boe and should remain cash flow neutral at oil prices as low as $40/boe through 2032.	Norwegian Oil Energy Production Free Cash Flow Oil Prices
	Music Exposure to Universal Music Group through holdings in Odet and Vivendi. UMG faced pressure during the quarter with 25% sell-off partly explained by AI fears. Despite concerns over future growth amid rising AI-related risks, the manager continues to regard UMG as a high-quality business that has de-rated from an elevated valuation.	Universal Music AI Impact Content Streaming
	Battery Supply Chain Top contributor Vitzrocell, the leading South Korean lithium primary batteries manufacturer, gained 95.5% during the quarter. Primary batteries have superior qualities for extreme environments including longer lifetime, higher energy density, and higher temperature ranges, making them ideal for smart meters, military and oil & gas applications.	Lithium Batteries Smart Meters Military Energy Storage
	Steel Danieli, the Italian steel plant maker and steel producer, was a significant contributor with 14.9% gain. Although sales declined 16% year-on-year due to project timing, EBITDA increased 17% exceeding expectations. The Plant Making order book increased by 10.9% and remained well diversified.	Steel Production Plant Making Italy Industrial
2025 Q4	AI Artificial intelligence enthusiasm supported large-cap growth companies and drove technology-led earnings growth. Much of today's technology-led earnings growth is supported by long-term capital investment in AI, energy, and infrastructure reflecting demographic pressures and labor scarcity.	Artificial Intelligence Technology Investment Growth Infrastructure
	Valuations Equity valuations remain elevated with the S&P 500 trading near 23x forward earnings, well above its long-term average of roughly 15.6x. Elevated valuations do not imply an imminent market downturn but tend to constrain longer-term returns and may increase market sensitivity to earnings disappointments.	Valuations Earnings Market Risk Sensitivity
	Earnings Strong corporate earnings, particularly within technology and communication services, drove market gains. Current valuation levels suggest returns will depend more on earnings durability and cash-flow generation than on further multiple expansion.	Earnings Corporate Technology Cash Flow Growth
	Dollar A weaker U.S. dollar, down 9.4% in 2025, provided a notable tailwind for foreign assets and helped drive international equity outperformance over U.S. markets for the first time in several years.	Dollar Currency International Foreign Assets Outperformance
	Rates The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in December, bringing the policy rate to 3.5%-3.75%. The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 and currently expects one more cut in 2026, while markets are pricing in roughly two additional cuts.	Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Rate Cuts Policy
2025 Q3	AI Investor attention remains heavily concentrated on artificial intelligence and a narrow group of related equities, sidelining much of the broader market. The concentration of capital in AI-related stocks is even greater than the technology sector's concentration in 2000. Questions remain about profitability models and sustainability of current AI investment levels.	Artificial Intelligence Technology Concentration Valuations Investment
	Copper The fund remains positive on copper's long-term prospects due to supply restrictions from historical under-investment and licensing complexities, combined with booming demand from energy transition, technology, and artificial intelligence applications. Atalaya Mining provides optionality through a promising pipeline of copper projects.	Energy Transition Supply Restriction Mining Technology Demand
	Steel The EU Commission has a plan to protect the EU steel industry from unfair competition, targeting Chinese imports which have hurt the industry. If implemented, the EU steel industry is expected to see much better days, supporting both Danieli's plant making and steel making segments.	Trade Protection Chinese Competition EU Policy Industrial Tariffs
	Cement Argentine cement market faces challenges from low utilization rates and pricing pressures in early recovery stages. However, competition has historically been rational, and significant upside potential exists once Argentina's real estate market normalizes and government spending picks up again.	Argentina Real Estate Utilization Recovery Pricing
	Apparel Youngone operates as a top-tier OEM manufacturer of outdoor and activewear with long-term partnerships with premium brands. The business serves a market niche commanding premium margins through expertise in technical garments, though faces tariff pressures from US trade policy.	OEM Manufacturing Technical Garments Premium Brands Tariffs Supply Chain
2025 Q2	Value Portfolio trading at weighted average P/E of 8.9x with more than 97% upside to estimated NAV. Manager emphasizes finding global opportunities at good to great valuations while avoiding overvalued markets. Focus on undervalued companies with strong fundamentals.	Valuation NAV Discount Undervalued P/E
	Gaming Significant exposure to gaming companies including Lottomatica (Italian multichannel gaming operator), Playtech (gambling technology provider), and International Game Technology (lottery and gaming machine technology). Strong performance from gaming holdings with Lottomatica and Playtech as top contributors.	Lottomatica Playtech IGT Lottery Sports Betting
	Small Caps Manager explicitly states it is a good time to be a small cap global investor. Portfolio consists of smaller companies across various geographies, taking advantage of opportunities not available in large cap indices.	Small Cap Global Opportunities Niche Undervalued
	Inflation Manager expresses concern about inflation from tariffs and government spending, describing policies as highly inflationary. Invests in companies believed capable of raising prices and outpacing inflation to grow wealth over the long-term.	Inflation Pricing Power Tariffs Government Debt Currency
2025 Q1	Trade Policy Manager extensively discusses Trump's tariff policies as negotiating tactics, believing they won't be fully implemented. Views tariffs as economically irrational and expects deals to be reached to avoid stagflation.	Tariffs Negotiations Supply Chains Stagflation Trade War
	Value Fund focuses on smaller, competitively advantaged, cash-generative, lowly valued companies while avoiding speculative market darlings. Portfolio trades at 8.6x P/E with 19% FCF yield.	Undervalued Cash Generation Intrinsic Value Discount Fundamentals
	Gaming Significant exposure to gaming companies including Lottomatica (top contributor), International Game Technology, and Sun International. Focus on regulated gaming markets with competitive advantages.	Casinos Online Gaming Sports Betting Lottery Gaming Revenue
	Risk Appetite Manager views current market volatility as opportunity rather than risk, emphasizing that volatility is not risk and permanent capital impairment is the true risk measure.	Volatility Opportunity Capital Impairment Market Panic Speculation
2024 Q4	Value Fund focuses on overlooked securities trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value with above average returns on capital. Portfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 8.5x with 98% upside to estimated NAV.	Discount Intrinsic Undervalued P/E FCF
	Gaming Multiple gaming investments including Lottomatica (Italian gaming operator) and International Game Technologies (lottery and gaming technology). Italian gaming market consolidation creating opportunities.	Lottery Sports Betting Online Gaming Italy Consolidation
	Media Holdings include Nippon Television (Japanese media conglomerate) and exposure to Universal Music Group through Bolloré structure. Focus on content creation and distribution businesses.	Television Content Music Japan Entertainment
	Inflation Manager believes staying invested is prudent to combat inflation and continue compounding wealth. Concerns about potential inflation from tariffs and wage costs in labor-intensive industries.	Tariffs Wages Compounding Hedging Currency
2024 Q3	Value Portfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 8.9x with 97% upside to estimated NAV. Manager emphasizes buying quality businesses at cyclical lows, citing examples like Unieuro receiving lowball takeover bid during downturn. Focus on cash-generative businesses trading below historical multiples.	Valuation Cyclical Cash Generation Discount Multiple
	Fertilizers OCI completed major asset sales totaling $11.6 billion gross value including Iowa Fertilizer Company and Global Methanol Business. Company moving toward potential liquidation with only European Nitrogen business remaining. Expected large tax-free dividend distribution to shareholders.	Nitrogen Methanol Divestiture Liquidation Distribution
	Steel Danieli faces pressure from Chinese steel exports reaching eight-year high in 2024, impacting European pricing. However, manager sees multi-decade tailwind from plant making division as global steel industry adopts their technology for green steel production. EU expected to impose steeper tariffs for protection.	Chinese Exports Plant Making Green Steel Tariffs Technology
	Food M Dias Branco is Brazil's market leader in cookies & crackers (31.8% share) and pasta (28.9% share). Company recovering from COVID and inflation impacts, implementing operational improvements including SKU simplification and supply chain optimization. Management targeting margin recovery to 15-16% range.	Brazil Market Leader Operational Efficiency Margin Recovery Distribution
2024 Q1	Value Portfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 8.9x with 17% FCF/EV yield and 28% return on tangible capital. Manager believes portfolio has more than 101% upside to estimated NAV. Focus on undervalued companies with strong cash generation and balance sheet efficiency opportunities.	Undervalued Cash Generation Balance Sheet Discount NAV
	Buybacks Multiple portfolio companies implementing share buyback programs including Nippon Television's ¥7 billion buyback and CIR's ongoing buyback program. These corporate actions are viewed as catalysts for unlocking shareholder value.	Share Buybacks Capital Return Value Unlock Corporate Actions
	Dividends Ocean Wilson increased dividend by 21% from $0.70 to $0.85 per share based on strong operating performance. Nippon Television changed dividend policy to be more favorable for foreign investors as part of balance sheet efficiency improvements.	Dividend Increase Dividend Policy Foreign Investors Cash Return
2023 Q4	Japan Japan has been one of the cheapest markets in recent years due to poor corporate governance and capital allocation. The new CEO of the Japanese Stock Exchange has openly criticized companies trading below book value and demanded improved capital efficiency. This has created a potential multi-year bull market for value stocks in Japan as companies begin using cash piles for investment and shareholder returns.	Corporate Governance Capital Allocation Value Buybacks Dividends
	Fertilizers Following a very strong 2022 when commodity prices skyrocketed, there was over-stocking in the value chain causing a pricing downturn in 2023. With Russian exports unabated, it remains unclear when the downturn will end, though supply/demand balance is expected to improve in coming years.	Commodity Chemicals Agriculture Supply Chain Pricing
	Specialty Chemicals The Solvay spin-off created Syensqo, a growth-focused specialty chemical company producing high-performance polymers and materials for aerospace, autos and electronics. The company holds top-three positions in 90% of its markets and focuses on battery materials, green hydrogen, and renewable materials.	Polymers Aerospace Battery Materials Green Hydrogen
2023 Q3	Value Manager emphasizes buying companies at 10% free cash flow yields with strong balance sheets and cash flows. Portfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 7.5x and FCF/EV yield of 18%. Believes current environment creates great setup for value investing performance in coming years.	Free Cash Flow Valuation Discount Undervalued Margin of Safety
	Small Caps Portfolio consists of small-cap value stocks that appear to be derating despite strong fundamentals. Manager notes small-cap value sector experiencing theme-specific weakness with defensive names lacking bids. Views this as counterintuitive setup for future performance.	Small Cap Derating Fundamentals Sector
	Rates Manager believes 5% yields on ten-year government bonds seem reasonable and healthy for clearing junk from markets. Portfolio companies can handle 5% rates given their high free cash flow yields and pricing power. Views rate normalization as positive for capital discipline.	Interest Rates Bond Yields Capital Discipline
	Fertilizers OCI nitrogen fertilizer and methanol producer faced softened ammonia and urea markets in first half 2023 due to lower demand and gas price hedging losses. Manager reduced exposure but prepared to add on decline as prices stabilized. Remains structurally positive on ammonia, urea, DEF and methanol markets.	Ammonia Urea Methanol Gas Prices
2023 Q1	Value Portfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 8.5x, FCF/EV yield of 19% and return on tangible capital of 30%. Manager believes this is a great time to be a value investor and sees more than 105% upside to estimated NAV.	Valuation FCF P/E NAV Discount
	Dividends Ginebra San Miguel significantly boosted dividends from 5.5 PHP to forecast 10 PHP for 2023, implying nearly 10% yield. OCI plans €3.5 per share dividend bringing twelve-month distributions to €8.5 per share. Telekom Austria spin-off could enable special dividend.	Dividend Yield Payout Distribution Special
	Telecom Infrastructure Telekom Austria operates in oligopolistic markets with pricing power through inflation-linked tariffs. The tower spin-off is expected to unlock value and reduce leverage, potentially allowing for special dividend or M&A activity.	Towers 5G Fiber Infrastructure Spin-off
	Steel Danieli's steel segment drove 25% EBITDA growth due to favorable prices, volumes and energy subsidies. EU carbon tax from 2026 on non-green imported steel should benefit their green technologies division and drive demand for their plant-making business.	Steel EBITDA Carbon Green Technology
2022 Q2	Refiners Motor Oil Hellas is benefiting from an upswing in the refining cycle and can capture abnormal profits due to its high refining complexity and feedstock flexibility. There has been significant underinvestment and closures in the refining industry, aided by Western sanctions on Russian products, leading to a new refining upcycle.	Refining Energy Margins Complexity Mediterranean
	Natural Gas High European natural gas prices led to a sell-off in European gas consuming companies' share prices, providing opportunities to buy shares at attractive prices. The manager expects European natural gas prices will likely be lower in the mid-term and alternative fuels will be used in the industry.	Gas Energy Europe Prices Hedging
	Glass Verallia is the leading European glass bottle producer with pricing power and relatively strong demand. The glass bottle industry has high barriers to entry based on switching costs and economies of scale. Customers cannot easily switch to alternatives as bottles are part of the brand.	Packaging Barriers Pricing Oligopoly Recycling
	Fertilizers OCI NV reported record first quarter earnings and announced significant dividend payments. The manager expects nitrogen fertilizer fundamentals to remain strong, with the company benefiting from the current commodity cycle.	Nitrogen Agriculture Commodities Dividends Cycle
	Energy Transition Motor Oil is undergoing significant change as it redeploys strong cashflows in high return projects as they diversify into renewables. The acquisition makes Motor Oil number one in installed wind capacity in Greece, supporting the Group's transition to cleaner forms of energy.	Renewables Wind Solar Transition Greece
	Inflation Multi-decade high inflation is cited as one of the challenging market conditions. Central banks were far too late in realizing inflation was a growing threat and seemed willing to let rampant speculation run wild. The manager believes a fair portion of inflation is caused by structural underinvestment in commodities and housing.	Central Banks Monetary Policy Commodities Housing Structural
2022 Q1	Fertilizers OCI NV, the Dutch nitrogen fertilizer producer, was the largest contributor adding 206 basis points. Nitrogen fertilizer prices were elevated due to reduced Russian volumes and OCI benefits from low-cost natural gas facilities in the US and North Africa. The manager believes fertilizer prices will remain elevated for an extended period.	Nitrogen Urea Ammonia Natural Gas Russia
	Oil DNO and Vår Energi, both Norwegian oil and gas companies, contributed positively during the quarter. DNO benefited from higher oil prices and remains undervalued compared to peers. Vår Energi is positioned as one of the largest E&P companies on the Norwegian Continental Shelf with production expected to grow significantly by 2026.	Norwegian Production Exploration Natural Gas
	Inflation The manager views owning high-quality companies with pricing power, advantaged commodity players and hard assets as the best way to preserve wealth in an inflationary environment. They believe their portfolio is well positioned for this environment with potential for mid-teens compound annual returns.	Pricing Power Hard Assets Commodities Wealth Preservation
	Home Improvement Wickes Group was added as a new position, representing the second largest pure-play home improvement retailer in the UK. The company targets smaller tradesmen and retail customers with a differentiated business model utilizing smaller store formats. The aging UK housing stock provides a strong tailwind for the home renovation market.	UK Retail Renovation Tradesmen DIY
	Russia The manager had no direct exposure to Russian or Ukrainian assets but notes Russia's outsized impact on global commodities including oil, gas, wheat, fertilizers and palladium. The war has driven commodity prices higher and added to inflation pressures. Some portfolio companies like Danieli have limited Russian exposure.	Ukraine War Commodities Sanctions Europe
2021 Q4	Inflation Central banks now admit inflation exists and is not entirely transitory. The fund believes they are in early innings of righting disastrous effects of negative real interest rates, requiring painful reallocation from speculators to productive businesses.	Inflation Interest Rates Central Banks Monetary Policy
	Value The fund's value stocks have been out of favor but produce strong cash flows. They believe buying high-quality companies with pricing power at significant discounts to intrinsic value will produce strong real returns in this environment.	Value Cash Flows Pricing Power Intrinsic Value
	Fertilizers Nitrogen fertilizer prices have skyrocketed from $226/ton in Q2 2020 to as high as $1000 in Q4 2021. Strong farmer incomes and agricultural commodity prices support fertilizer pricing through upcoming planting seasons.	Fertilizers Nitrogen Agriculture Commodity Prices
	Hotels The hospitality industry has been devastated by COVID-19 and Hong Kong's closed borders. The fund owns hotel assets through Great Eagle Holdings but expects no improvement until 2024, viewing current positions as options for recovery.	Hotels Hospitality Travel Recovery
	Gaming International Game Technology benefited from competitor Scientific Games selling its lottery business at 13x EBITDA. IGT's lottery business is viewed as higher quality and larger, suggesting significant upside potential.	Gaming Lottery Valuation M&A
2021 Q3	Fertilizers OCI NV, the nitrogen fertilizer and methanol producer, was the largest contributor with record EBITDA and free cash flow. Corn price recovery has enriched farmer incomes, allowing increased nitrogen fertilizer purchases. Global marginal producer challenges and natural gas squeeze have lifted fertilizer pricing, with OCI benefiting from 50% gas supply at low fixed costs.	Nitrogen Methanol Corn Natural Gas EBITDA
	Gaming International Game Technology reported strong lottery performance with 35% same store sales and progressive recovery in land-based Global Gaming. Digital & Betting activities grew 41%. The company raised guidance and is expected to exceed 2019 levels for key financial metrics.	Lottery Digital Betting Land-based Recovery
	Apparel OVS SpA, an Italian fashion retailer, gained 52% during the quarter after completing a rights offer and reporting strong second quarter results. The company is benefiting from market share gains, full pricing, lower working capital, and debt reduction through strategic repositioning in family and value categories.	Fashion Retail Market Share Family Value
	Steel Danieli reported full year results well ahead of expectations with EBITDA 12% and net profit 14% ahead of consensus. The steel segment performed well with volumes ramping up. The plant making division is positioned at the start of a long cycle as the global steel industry invests in environmental improvements.	Steel Plants Environmental Order Backlog Volumes Cycle
	Casinos Melco International was the top detractor as COVID recovery delays and China's zero tolerance policy kept Macau closed indefinitely. Vague plans for gambling concession renewals caused sector-wide declines, though the manager believes the government doesn't intend to dismantle the industry.	Macau COVID Concessions Zero Tolerance Recovery
2021 Q2	Inflation Manager extensively discusses both transitory and structural inflation pressures, noting lumber as transitory while wage increases, supply chain reshoring, and environmental costs as more permanent. Fed policies are viewed as inherently inflationary through asset price inflation.	Wages Supply Chain Fed Policy Commodities Lumber
	Value Portfolio focuses on undervalued cash-producing companies bought at discount to intrinsic value. Manager emphasizes finding companies trading below fair value with strong fundamentals as protection against market volatility.	Undervalued Cash Flow Intrinsic Value Margin of Safety
	Gaming International Game Technology was second largest contributor, with lottery segment performing exceptionally well showing 24% same-store sales growth and highest revenue in segment history. Gaming division recovering to 2019 levels.	Lottery Slot Machines Recovery
	Semiconductors C. Uyemura position focuses on specialty PCB plating chemicals for high-end semiconductor applications. 5G rollout and increasing electronics content in cars provide tailwinds for the specialty chemicals niche.	PCB 5G Electronics Specialty Chemicals
	Alcohol Ginebra San Miguel represents dominant gin producer in Philippines with 92% market share. Company has recovered from previous losses, strengthened balance sheet, and returned to dividend payments with strong pricing power.	Gin Philippines Market Share Pricing Power
2021 Q1	Value Manager discusses the recent performance of value factor and distinguishes their approach from statistical value indices. They believe their positions appreciated due to fundamental business outlooks being recognized rather than just value factor rotation.	Value Factor Fundamentals Discount Cheap
	Steel Steel markets have improved greatly with record margins for European producers. The trend towards greener steel using electric arc furnaces will require increased refractories and benefit companies like RHI Magnesita and Danieli.	Steel EAF Green Refractories Margins
	Gaming Gamesys was the largest contributor, announcing stellar earnings and receiving a takeover offer from Bally's Corporation. The manager views the offer as too low given the company's strong cash generation and sector discount.	Gaming Online Bingo Casino Takeover
	E-commerce Unieuro benefited from work and school from home trends, embracing omni-channel approach. The company saw strong demand for electronics during lockdowns and continues to gain market share.	Electronics Retail Omni-channel Lockdown Market share
	Fertilizers OCI NV benefited from ammonia prices doubling due to strong fertilizer application season by cash-flush farmers and pandemic-driven capacity shutdowns reducing supply.	Ammonia Nitrogen Crop prices Supply Farmers
	Forest Products Stora Enso positioned in containerboard driven by e-commerce growth. Pulp prices have almost doubled from 2019 lows with demand exceeding supply growth forecasted. The company owns valuable forest assets providing stability.	Pulp Containerboard Packaging Forests Pricing
2020 Q4	Value Fund focuses on high-quality companies trading at low valuations relative to cashflows and growth expectations. Portfolio trades at 9x P/E with 14% FCF/EV yield and 104% upside to NAV. Manager emphasizes buying undervalued businesses with strong fundamentals.	Value Undervalued Cashflows Quality
	Steel RHI Magnesita, the refractory company, was the largest contributor gaining 43.6% during the quarter. Manager expects further re-rating as restocking takes place and demand returns to end-markets. Befesa benefits from steel dust recycling with robust volumes.	Steel Refractories Recycling
	Fertilizers OCI NV, the nitrogen fertilizer producer, gained 43.3% as fertilizer prices remained strong. Demand aided by large Indian tenders and strong Brazilian market while supply was muted. Healthy crop prices should fuel continued demand into 2021 planting season.	Fertilizers Nitrogen Agriculture
	Gaming International Game Technology gained 45% after divesting Italian gaming business. Melco International provides exposure to Macau casinos through 54% stake in Melco Resorts. Manager confident Macau will retain allure to Chinese gamblers once travel restrictions lift.	Gaming Casinos Macau
	Travel MTU Aero Engines gained 50% on vaccine news and hope for return to normal flying patterns. Melco's Macau operations severely impacted by travel ban with GGR down 80% in 2020, but manager expects recovery when Chinese citizens allowed to return.	Travel Aviation Recovery
	Media Avid Technology develops video editing software used in Hollywood movies and TV shows. Company transitioning from hardware sales to SaaS model, boosting recurring revenues from 50% to 71%. Strong free cashflow and improving margins as business model evolves.	Media Software SaaS

QUARTER

THEMES

Gaming

Detailed analysis of Cirsa Enterprises, a Spanish omni-channel gaming company with operations across Spain, Latin America and Italy. The company operates 460 casinos, 80,000 slot machines and has a rapidly growing online gaming division. Management expects solid growth driven by online sports betting expansion and casino expansion strategy.

Casinos Sports Betting Online Gaming Spain Latin America

Oil

Strong performance from Vår Energi, the Norwegian oil and gas operator, which delivered transformational year by sanctioning 10 new development projects. The company is well positioned for substantial free cash flow with oil trading well above $100/boe and should remain cash flow neutral at oil prices as low as $40/boe through 2032.

Norwegian Oil Energy Production Free Cash Flow Oil Prices

Music

Exposure to Universal Music Group through holdings in Odet and Vivendi. UMG faced pressure during the quarter with 25% sell-off partly explained by AI fears. Despite concerns over future growth amid rising AI-related risks, the manager continues to regard UMG as a high-quality business that has de-rated from an elevated valuation.

Universal Music AI Impact Content Streaming

Battery Supply Chain

Top contributor Vitzrocell, the leading South Korean lithium primary batteries manufacturer, gained 95.5% during the quarter. Primary batteries have superior qualities for extreme environments including longer lifetime, higher energy density, and higher temperature ranges, making them ideal for smart meters, military and oil & gas applications.

Lithium Batteries Smart Meters Military Energy Storage

Steel

Danieli, the Italian steel plant maker and steel producer, was a significant contributor with 14.9% gain. Although sales declined 16% year-on-year due to project timing, EBITDA increased 17% exceeding expectations. The Plant Making order book increased by 10.9% and remained well diversified.

Steel Production Plant Making Italy Industrial

2025 Q4

AI

Artificial intelligence enthusiasm supported large-cap growth companies and drove technology-led earnings growth. Much of today's technology-led earnings growth is supported by long-term capital investment in AI, energy, and infrastructure reflecting demographic pressures and labor scarcity.

Artificial Intelligence Technology Investment Growth Infrastructure

Valuations

Equity valuations remain elevated with the S&P 500 trading near 23x forward earnings, well above its long-term average of roughly 15.6x. Elevated valuations do not imply an imminent market downturn but tend to constrain longer-term returns and may increase market sensitivity to earnings disappointments.

Valuations Earnings Market Risk Sensitivity

Earnings

Strong corporate earnings, particularly within technology and communication services, drove market gains. Current valuation levels suggest returns will depend more on earnings durability and cash-flow generation than on further multiple expansion.

Earnings Corporate Technology Cash Flow Growth

Dollar

A weaker U.S. dollar, down 9.4% in 2025, provided a notable tailwind for foreign assets and helped drive international equity outperformance over U.S. markets for the first time in several years.

Dollar Currency International Foreign Assets Outperformance

Rates

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in December, bringing the policy rate to 3.5%-3.75%. The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 and currently expects one more cut in 2026, while markets are pricing in roughly two additional cuts.

Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Rate Cuts Policy

2025 Q3

AI

Investor attention remains heavily concentrated on artificial intelligence and a narrow group of related equities, sidelining much of the broader market. The concentration of capital in AI-related stocks is even greater than the technology sector's concentration in 2000. Questions remain about profitability models and sustainability of current AI investment levels.

Artificial Intelligence Technology Concentration Valuations Investment

Copper

The fund remains positive on copper's long-term prospects due to supply restrictions from historical under-investment and licensing complexities, combined with booming demand from energy transition, technology, and artificial intelligence applications. Atalaya Mining provides optionality through a promising pipeline of copper projects.

Energy Transition Supply Restriction Mining Technology Demand

Steel

The EU Commission has a plan to protect the EU steel industry from unfair competition, targeting Chinese imports which have hurt the industry. If implemented, the EU steel industry is expected to see much better days, supporting both Danieli's plant making and steel making segments.

Trade Protection Chinese Competition EU Policy Industrial Tariffs

Cement

Argentine cement market faces challenges from low utilization rates and pricing pressures in early recovery stages. However, competition has historically been rational, and significant upside potential exists once Argentina's real estate market normalizes and government spending picks up again.

Argentina Real Estate Utilization Recovery Pricing

Apparel

Youngone operates as a top-tier OEM manufacturer of outdoor and activewear with long-term partnerships with premium brands. The business serves a market niche commanding premium margins through expertise in technical garments, though faces tariff pressures from US trade policy.

OEM Manufacturing Technical Garments Premium Brands Tariffs Supply Chain

2025 Q2

Value

Portfolio trading at weighted average P/E of 8.9x with more than 97% upside to estimated NAV. Manager emphasizes finding global opportunities at good to great valuations while avoiding overvalued markets. Focus on undervalued companies with strong fundamentals.

Valuation NAV Discount Undervalued P/E

Gaming

Significant exposure to gaming companies including Lottomatica (Italian multichannel gaming operator), Playtech (gambling technology provider), and International Game Technology (lottery and gaming machine technology). Strong performance from gaming holdings with Lottomatica and Playtech as top contributors.

Lottomatica Playtech IGT Lottery Sports Betting

Small Caps

Manager explicitly states it is a good time to be a small cap global investor. Portfolio consists of smaller companies across various geographies, taking advantage of opportunities not available in large cap indices.

Small Cap Global Opportunities Niche Undervalued

Inflation

Manager expresses concern about inflation from tariffs and government spending, describing policies as highly inflationary. Invests in companies believed capable of raising prices and outpacing inflation to grow wealth over the long-term.

Inflation Pricing Power Tariffs Government Debt Currency

2025 Q1

Trade Policy

Manager extensively discusses Trump's tariff policies as negotiating tactics, believing they won't be fully implemented. Views tariffs as economically irrational and expects deals to be reached to avoid stagflation.

Tariffs Negotiations Supply Chains Stagflation Trade War

Value

Fund focuses on smaller, competitively advantaged, cash-generative, lowly valued companies while avoiding speculative market darlings. Portfolio trades at 8.6x P/E with 19% FCF yield.

Undervalued Cash Generation Intrinsic Value Discount Fundamentals

Gaming

Significant exposure to gaming companies including Lottomatica (top contributor), International Game Technology, and Sun International. Focus on regulated gaming markets with competitive advantages.

Casinos Online Gaming Sports Betting Lottery Gaming Revenue

Risk Appetite

Manager views current market volatility as opportunity rather than risk, emphasizing that volatility is not risk and permanent capital impairment is the true risk measure.

Volatility Opportunity Capital Impairment Market Panic Speculation

2024 Q4

Value

Fund focuses on overlooked securities trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value with above average returns on capital. Portfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 8.5x with 98% upside to estimated NAV.

Discount Intrinsic Undervalued P/E FCF

Gaming

Multiple gaming investments including Lottomatica (Italian gaming operator) and International Game Technologies (lottery and gaming technology). Italian gaming market consolidation creating opportunities.

Lottery Sports Betting Online Gaming Italy Consolidation

Media

Holdings include Nippon Television (Japanese media conglomerate) and exposure to Universal Music Group through Bolloré structure. Focus on content creation and distribution businesses.

Television Content Music Japan Entertainment

Inflation

Manager believes staying invested is prudent to combat inflation and continue compounding wealth. Concerns about potential inflation from tariffs and wage costs in labor-intensive industries.

Tariffs Wages Compounding Hedging Currency

2024 Q3

Value

Portfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 8.9x with 97% upside to estimated NAV. Manager emphasizes buying quality businesses at cyclical lows, citing examples like Unieuro receiving lowball takeover bid during downturn. Focus on cash-generative businesses trading below historical multiples.

Valuation Cyclical Cash Generation Discount Multiple

Fertilizers

OCI completed major asset sales totaling $11.6 billion gross value including Iowa Fertilizer Company and Global Methanol Business. Company moving toward potential liquidation with only European Nitrogen business remaining. Expected large tax-free dividend distribution to shareholders.

Nitrogen Methanol Divestiture Liquidation Distribution

Steel

Danieli faces pressure from Chinese steel exports reaching eight-year high in 2024, impacting European pricing. However, manager sees multi-decade tailwind from plant making division as global steel industry adopts their technology for green steel production. EU expected to impose steeper tariffs for protection.

Chinese Exports Plant Making Green Steel Tariffs Technology

Food

M Dias Branco is Brazil's market leader in cookies & crackers (31.8% share) and pasta (28.9% share). Company recovering from COVID and inflation impacts, implementing operational improvements including SKU simplification and supply chain optimization. Management targeting margin recovery to 15-16% range.

Brazil Market Leader Operational Efficiency Margin Recovery Distribution

2024 Q1

Value

Portfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 8.9x with 17% FCF/EV yield and 28% return on tangible capital. Manager believes portfolio has more than 101% upside to estimated NAV. Focus on undervalued companies with strong cash generation and balance sheet efficiency opportunities.

Undervalued Cash Generation Balance Sheet Discount NAV

Buybacks

Multiple portfolio companies implementing share buyback programs including Nippon Television's ¥7 billion buyback and CIR's ongoing buyback program. These corporate actions are viewed as catalysts for unlocking shareholder value.

Share Buybacks Capital Return Value Unlock Corporate Actions

Dividends

Ocean Wilson increased dividend by 21% from $0.70 to $0.85 per share based on strong operating performance. Nippon Television changed dividend policy to be more favorable for foreign investors as part of balance sheet efficiency improvements.

Dividend Increase Dividend Policy Foreign Investors Cash Return

2023 Q4

Japan

Japan has been one of the cheapest markets in recent years due to poor corporate governance and capital allocation. The new CEO of the Japanese Stock Exchange has openly criticized companies trading below book value and demanded improved capital efficiency. This has created a potential multi-year bull market for value stocks in Japan as companies begin using cash piles for investment and shareholder returns.

Corporate Governance Capital Allocation Value Buybacks Dividends

Fertilizers

Following a very strong 2022 when commodity prices skyrocketed, there was over-stocking in the value chain causing a pricing downturn in 2023. With Russian exports unabated, it remains unclear when the downturn will end, though supply/demand balance is expected to improve in coming years.

Commodity Chemicals Agriculture Supply Chain Pricing

Specialty Chemicals

The Solvay spin-off created Syensqo, a growth-focused specialty chemical company producing high-performance polymers and materials for aerospace, autos and electronics. The company holds top-three positions in 90% of its markets and focuses on battery materials, green hydrogen, and renewable materials.

Polymers Aerospace Battery Materials Green Hydrogen

2023 Q3

Value

Manager emphasizes buying companies at 10% free cash flow yields with strong balance sheets and cash flows. Portfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 7.5x and FCF/EV yield of 18%. Believes current environment creates great setup for value investing performance in coming years.

Free Cash Flow Valuation Discount Undervalued Margin of Safety

Small Caps

Portfolio consists of small-cap value stocks that appear to be derating despite strong fundamentals. Manager notes small-cap value sector experiencing theme-specific weakness with defensive names lacking bids. Views this as counterintuitive setup for future performance.

Small Cap Derating Fundamentals Sector

Rates

Manager believes 5% yields on ten-year government bonds seem reasonable and healthy for clearing junk from markets. Portfolio companies can handle 5% rates given their high free cash flow yields and pricing power. Views rate normalization as positive for capital discipline.

Interest Rates Bond Yields Capital Discipline

Fertilizers

OCI nitrogen fertilizer and methanol producer faced softened ammonia and urea markets in first half 2023 due to lower demand and gas price hedging losses. Manager reduced exposure but prepared to add on decline as prices stabilized. Remains structurally positive on ammonia, urea, DEF and methanol markets.

Ammonia Urea Methanol Gas Prices

2023 Q1

Value

Portfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 8.5x, FCF/EV yield of 19% and return on tangible capital of 30%. Manager believes this is a great time to be a value investor and sees more than 105% upside to estimated NAV.

Valuation FCF P/E NAV Discount

Dividends

Ginebra San Miguel significantly boosted dividends from 5.5 PHP to forecast 10 PHP for 2023, implying nearly 10% yield. OCI plans €3.5 per share dividend bringing twelve-month distributions to €8.5 per share. Telekom Austria spin-off could enable special dividend.

Dividend Yield Payout Distribution Special

Telecom Infrastructure

Telekom Austria operates in oligopolistic markets with pricing power through inflation-linked tariffs. The tower spin-off is expected to unlock value and reduce leverage, potentially allowing for special dividend or M&A activity.

Towers 5G Fiber Infrastructure Spin-off

Steel

Danieli's steel segment drove 25% EBITDA growth due to favorable prices, volumes and energy subsidies. EU carbon tax from 2026 on non-green imported steel should benefit their green technologies division and drive demand for their plant-making business.

Steel EBITDA Carbon Green Technology

2022 Q2

Refiners

Motor Oil Hellas is benefiting from an upswing in the refining cycle and can capture abnormal profits due to its high refining complexity and feedstock flexibility. There has been significant underinvestment and closures in the refining industry, aided by Western sanctions on Russian products, leading to a new refining upcycle.

Refining Energy Margins Complexity Mediterranean

Natural Gas

High European natural gas prices led to a sell-off in European gas consuming companies' share prices, providing opportunities to buy shares at attractive prices. The manager expects European natural gas prices will likely be lower in the mid-term and alternative fuels will be used in the industry.

Gas Energy Europe Prices Hedging

Glass

Verallia is the leading European glass bottle producer with pricing power and relatively strong demand. The glass bottle industry has high barriers to entry based on switching costs and economies of scale. Customers cannot easily switch to alternatives as bottles are part of the brand.

Packaging Barriers Pricing Oligopoly Recycling

Fertilizers

OCI NV reported record first quarter earnings and announced significant dividend payments. The manager expects nitrogen fertilizer fundamentals to remain strong, with the company benefiting from the current commodity cycle.

Nitrogen Agriculture Commodities Dividends Cycle

Energy Transition

Motor Oil is undergoing significant change as it redeploys strong cashflows in high return projects as they diversify into renewables. The acquisition makes Motor Oil number one in installed wind capacity in Greece, supporting the Group's transition to cleaner forms of energy.

Renewables Wind Solar Transition Greece

Inflation

Multi-decade high inflation is cited as one of the challenging market conditions. Central banks were far too late in realizing inflation was a growing threat and seemed willing to let rampant speculation run wild. The manager believes a fair portion of inflation is caused by structural underinvestment in commodities and housing.

Central Banks Monetary Policy Commodities Housing Structural

2022 Q1

Fertilizers

OCI NV, the Dutch nitrogen fertilizer producer, was the largest contributor adding 206 basis points. Nitrogen fertilizer prices were elevated due to reduced Russian volumes and OCI benefits from low-cost natural gas facilities in the US and North Africa. The manager believes fertilizer prices will remain elevated for an extended period.

Nitrogen Urea Ammonia Natural Gas Russia

Oil

DNO and Vår Energi, both Norwegian oil and gas companies, contributed positively during the quarter. DNO benefited from higher oil prices and remains undervalued compared to peers. Vår Energi is positioned as one of the largest E&P companies on the Norwegian Continental Shelf with production expected to grow significantly by 2026.

Norwegian Production Exploration Natural Gas

Inflation

The manager views owning high-quality companies with pricing power, advantaged commodity players and hard assets as the best way to preserve wealth in an inflationary environment. They believe their portfolio is well positioned for this environment with potential for mid-teens compound annual returns.

Pricing Power Hard Assets Commodities Wealth Preservation

Home Improvement

Wickes Group was added as a new position, representing the second largest pure-play home improvement retailer in the UK. The company targets smaller tradesmen and retail customers with a differentiated business model utilizing smaller store formats. The aging UK housing stock provides a strong tailwind for the home renovation market.

UK Retail Renovation Tradesmen DIY

Russia

The manager had no direct exposure to Russian or Ukrainian assets but notes Russia's outsized impact on global commodities including oil, gas, wheat, fertilizers and palladium. The war has driven commodity prices higher and added to inflation pressures. Some portfolio companies like Danieli have limited Russian exposure.

Ukraine War Commodities Sanctions Europe

2021 Q4

Inflation

Central banks now admit inflation exists and is not entirely transitory. The fund believes they are in early innings of righting disastrous effects of negative real interest rates, requiring painful reallocation from speculators to productive businesses.

Inflation Interest Rates Central Banks Monetary Policy

Value

The fund's value stocks have been out of favor but produce strong cash flows. They believe buying high-quality companies with pricing power at significant discounts to intrinsic value will produce strong real returns in this environment.

Value Cash Flows Pricing Power Intrinsic Value

Fertilizers

Nitrogen fertilizer prices have skyrocketed from $226/ton in Q2 2020 to as high as $1000 in Q4 2021. Strong farmer incomes and agricultural commodity prices support fertilizer pricing through upcoming planting seasons.

Fertilizers Nitrogen Agriculture Commodity Prices

Hotels

The hospitality industry has been devastated by COVID-19 and Hong Kong's closed borders. The fund owns hotel assets through Great Eagle Holdings but expects no improvement until 2024, viewing current positions as options for recovery.

Hotels Hospitality Travel Recovery

Gaming

International Game Technology benefited from competitor Scientific Games selling its lottery business at 13x EBITDA. IGT's lottery business is viewed as higher quality and larger, suggesting significant upside potential.

Gaming Lottery Valuation M&A

2021 Q3

Fertilizers

OCI NV, the nitrogen fertilizer and methanol producer, was the largest contributor with record EBITDA and free cash flow. Corn price recovery has enriched farmer incomes, allowing increased nitrogen fertilizer purchases. Global marginal producer challenges and natural gas squeeze have lifted fertilizer pricing, with OCI benefiting from 50% gas supply at low fixed costs.

Nitrogen Methanol Corn Natural Gas EBITDA

Gaming

International Game Technology reported strong lottery performance with 35% same store sales and progressive recovery in land-based Global Gaming. Digital & Betting activities grew 41%. The company raised guidance and is expected to exceed 2019 levels for key financial metrics.

Lottery Digital Betting Land-based Recovery

Apparel

OVS SpA, an Italian fashion retailer, gained 52% during the quarter after completing a rights offer and reporting strong second quarter results. The company is benefiting from market share gains, full pricing, lower working capital, and debt reduction through strategic repositioning in family and value categories.

Fashion Retail Market Share Family Value

Steel

Danieli reported full year results well ahead of expectations with EBITDA 12% and net profit 14% ahead of consensus. The steel segment performed well with volumes ramping up. The plant making division is positioned at the start of a long cycle as the global steel industry invests in environmental improvements.

Steel Plants Environmental Order Backlog Volumes Cycle

Casinos

Melco International was the top detractor as COVID recovery delays and China's zero tolerance policy kept Macau closed indefinitely. Vague plans for gambling concession renewals caused sector-wide declines, though the manager believes the government doesn't intend to dismantle the industry.

Macau COVID Concessions Zero Tolerance Recovery

2021 Q2

Inflation

Manager extensively discusses both transitory and structural inflation pressures, noting lumber as transitory while wage increases, supply chain reshoring, and environmental costs as more permanent. Fed policies are viewed as inherently inflationary through asset price inflation.

Wages Supply Chain Fed Policy Commodities Lumber

Value

Portfolio focuses on undervalued cash-producing companies bought at discount to intrinsic value. Manager emphasizes finding companies trading below fair value with strong fundamentals as protection against market volatility.

Undervalued Cash Flow Intrinsic Value Margin of Safety

Gaming

International Game Technology was second largest contributor, with lottery segment performing exceptionally well showing 24% same-store sales growth and highest revenue in segment history. Gaming division recovering to 2019 levels.

Lottery Slot Machines Recovery

Semiconductors

C. Uyemura position focuses on specialty PCB plating chemicals for high-end semiconductor applications. 5G rollout and increasing electronics content in cars provide tailwinds for the specialty chemicals niche.

PCB 5G Electronics Specialty Chemicals

Alcohol

Ginebra San Miguel represents dominant gin producer in Philippines with 92% market share. Company has recovered from previous losses, strengthened balance sheet, and returned to dividend payments with strong pricing power.

Gin Philippines Market Share Pricing Power

2021 Q1

Value

Manager discusses the recent performance of value factor and distinguishes their approach from statistical value indices. They believe their positions appreciated due to fundamental business outlooks being recognized rather than just value factor rotation.

Value Factor Fundamentals Discount Cheap

Steel

Steel markets have improved greatly with record margins for European producers. The trend towards greener steel using electric arc furnaces will require increased refractories and benefit companies like RHI Magnesita and Danieli.

Steel EAF Green Refractories Margins

Gaming

Gamesys was the largest contributor, announcing stellar earnings and receiving a takeover offer from Bally's Corporation. The manager views the offer as too low given the company's strong cash generation and sector discount.

Gaming Online Bingo Casino Takeover

E-commerce

Unieuro benefited from work and school from home trends, embracing omni-channel approach. The company saw strong demand for electronics during lockdowns and continues to gain market share.

Electronics Retail Omni-channel Lockdown Market share

Fertilizers

OCI NV benefited from ammonia prices doubling due to strong fertilizer application season by cash-flush farmers and pandemic-driven capacity shutdowns reducing supply.

Ammonia Nitrogen Crop prices Supply Farmers

Forest Products

Stora Enso positioned in containerboard driven by e-commerce growth. Pulp prices have almost doubled from 2019 lows with demand exceeding supply growth forecasted. The company owns valuable forest assets providing stability.

Pulp Containerboard Packaging Forests Pricing

2020 Q4

Value

Fund focuses on high-quality companies trading at low valuations relative to cashflows and growth expectations. Portfolio trades at 9x P/E with 14% FCF/EV yield and 104% upside to NAV. Manager emphasizes buying undervalued businesses with strong fundamentals.

Value Undervalued Cashflows Quality

Steel

RHI Magnesita, the refractory company, was the largest contributor gaining 43.6% during the quarter. Manager expects further re-rating as restocking takes place and demand returns to end-markets. Befesa benefits from steel dust recycling with robust volumes.

Steel Refractories Recycling

Fertilizers

OCI NV, the nitrogen fertilizer producer, gained 43.3% as fertilizer prices remained strong. Demand aided by large Indian tenders and strong Brazilian market while supply was muted. Healthy crop prices should fuel continued demand into 2021 planting season.

Fertilizers Nitrogen Agriculture

Gaming

International Game Technology gained 45% after divesting Italian gaming business. Melco International provides exposure to Macau casinos through 54% stake in Melco Resorts. Manager confident Macau will retain allure to Chinese gamblers once travel restrictions lift.

Gaming Casinos Macau

Travel

MTU Aero Engines gained 50% on vaccine news and hope for return to normal flying patterns. Melco's Macau operations severely impacted by travel ban with GGR down 80% in 2020, but manager expects recovery when Chinese citizens allowed to return.

Travel Aviation Recovery

Media

Avid Technology develops video editing software used in Hollywood movies and TV shows. Company transitioning from hardware sales to SaaS model, boosting recurring revenues from 50% to 71%. Strong free cashflow and improving margins as business model evolves.

Media Software SaaS

Date	Pitch Type	Author	Ticker	Company	Industry	Sub Industry	Bull / Bear	Exchange	Keywords	Action
May 5, 2026	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	-	Cirsa Enterprises	Other	Casinos & Gaming	Bull	New York Stock Exchange	Blackstone, Casinos, Free Cash Flow, Gaming, IPO, Latin America, M&A, market leader, Omnichannel, Online betting, Regulated Markets, Slot Machines, Spain, Sports betting	Login
Jan 20, 2026	Fund Letters	Peter Smith	LOMA	Loma Negra C.I.A.S.A.	Materials	Construction Materials	Bull	New York Stock Exchange	Argentina, cashflow, Cement, infrastructure, recovery	Login
Jan 20, 2026	Fund Letters	Peter Smith	ATYM LN	Atalaya Mining Plc	Materials	Copper Mining	Bull	New York Stock Exchange	cashflow, Copper, Electrification, growth, Mining	Login
Jan 20, 2026	Fund Letters	Peter Smith	012030 KS	Youngone Corporation	Consumer Discretionary	Apparel Manufacturing	Bull	New York Stock Exchange	Apparel, cashflow, Margins, Oem, recovery	Login
Jan 20, 2026	Fund Letters	Peter Smith	DAN IM	Danieli & C Officine Meccaniche S.p.A.	Industrials	Industrial Machinery	Bull	Borsa Istanbul	backlog, Industrials, infrastructure, machinery, Steel	Login
Jan 20, 2026	Fund Letters	Peter Smith	RHIM LN	RHI Magnesita N.V.	Materials	Construction Materials	Neutral	New York Stock Exchange	cashflow, Cyclicality, Overcapacity, Refractories, Steelcycle	Login
Jan 20, 2026	Fund Letters	Peter Smith	6345 JP	Aichi Corporation	Industrials	Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks	Bear	New York Stock Exchange	buybacks, Capitalallocation, Control, Governance, Suppliers	Login
Jan 20, 2026	Fund Letters	Peter Smith	KRI GA	Kri-Kri Milk Industry S.A.	Consumer Staples	Packaged Foods & Meats	Neutral	New York Stock Exchange	Dairy, Exports, growth, Margins, valuation	Login
Jan 20, 2026	Fund Letters	Peter Smith	284740 KS	Cuckoo Homesys Co., Ltd.	Consumer Discretionary	Household Appliances	Bull	New York Stock Exchange	Appliances, dividends, expansion, Margins, Workingcapital	Login
Jan 20, 2026	Fund Letters	Peter Smith	VIV FP	Vivendi SE	Communication Services	Media	Bull	Euronext Stock Exchange	arbitration, Catalysts, Holdingcompany, Navdiscount, restructuring	Login
Jan 20, 2026	Fund Letters	Peter Smith	BRSL	Brightstar Lottery PLC	Information Technology	Data Processing & Outsourced Services	Bull	New York Stock Exchange	buybacks, cashflow, Contracts, Lottery, rerating	Login
Jun 30, 2025	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	192400.KS	Cuckoo Holdings	Consumer Discretionary	Household Appliances	Bull	Korea Exchange (KRX)	Appliance Rental, Dividend Growth, holding company, Home Appliances, market leader, recurring revenue, Rice Cookers, South Korea, Sum-of-parts, Value	Login
Mar 31, 2025	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	SUI.JO	Sun International Limited	Consumer Discretionary	Casinos & Gaming	Bull	Johannesburg Stock Exchange	activist, Casinos, deleveraging, Gaming, high dividend yield, M&A, Omnichannel, Online betting, South Africa, turnaround, Value	Login
Dec 27, 2024	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	ODET.PA	Compagnie de l'Odet	Financials	Multi-Sector Holdings	Bull	Euronext Paris	arbitrage, Asset Disposal, complex structure, conglomerate discount, entertainment, france, holding company, media, Sum-of-parts, Value Realization	Login
Sep 26, 2024	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	MDIA3.SA	M Dias Branco	Consumer Staples	Packaged Foods & Meats	Bull	B3 (Brazil Stock Exchange)	Brazil, consumer staples, Distribution, family-controlled, Margin recovery, market leader, Packaged Foods, turnaround, vertical integration, working capital	Login
Dec 28, 2023	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	SOLB.BR	Solvay	Materials	Specialty Chemicals	Bull	Euronext Brussels	Belgium, cash generation, market leader, materials, Soda Ash, specialty chemicals, spin-off, turnaround, Value Realization	Login
Sep 30, 2023	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	OCN.L	Ocean Wilsons Holdings Limited	Financials	Investment Banking & Brokerage	Bull	London Stock Exchange	Brazil, container terminals, discount to NAV, holding company, liquidation value, Maritime Services, strategic review, Sum-of-parts, Tugboat Operator, value unlock	Login
Mar 30, 2023	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	TKA.VI	Telekom Austria	Communication Services	Integrated Telecommunication Services	Bull	Vienna Stock Exchange	Central Europe, defensive, dividend, Free Cash Flow, infrastructure, oligopoly, telecommunications, Tower Spin-off, Value	Login
Jun 30, 2022	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	VRLA.PA	Verallia SAS	Packaging & Containers	Glass Products	Bull	Euronext Stock Exchange	barriers to entry, beverage industry, energy hedging, European Manufacturing, Glass packaging, natural gas, oligopoly, Pricing power, Sustainability	Login
Jun 30, 2022	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	MOH.AT	Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries SA	Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	Bull	New York Stock Exchange	Complex Refinery, Eastern Mediterranean, energy transition, Feedstock Flexibility, Greek Market, oil refining, renewable energy, Transformation Story, Wind power	Login
Mar 31, 2022	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	WIX.L	Wickes Group plc	Home Improvement Retail	Home Improvement Retail	Bull	New York Stock Exchange	DIY, Equity, home improvement, Installation Services, retail, spin-off, Tradesmen, UK, Value	Login
Mar 31, 2022	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	BOAS3.SA	Boa Vista Serviços	Other	Research & Consulting Services	Bull	Brasil Bolsa Balcão	Brazil, Credit Bureau, Data Analytics, Emerging markets, Equity, Fintech, recurring revenue, Regulatory change	Login
Sep 30, 2021	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	HP3A.DE	Ringmetall SE	Tools & Accessories	Metal & Glass Containers	Bull	-	aftermarket, Cyclical, Drum Clamping Rings, Free Cash Flow, Industrial Packaging, market share, Niche Manufacturing, Pricing power, regulatory compliance	Login
Sep 30, 2021	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	OVS.MI	OVS SpA	Apparel Manufacturing	Apparel Retail	Bull	Borsa Istanbul	deleveraging, Family Segment, Fashion retail, Free Cash Flow, Italy, market consolidation, market share gains, Omni Channel, turnaround, Value retail	Login
Jun 24, 2021	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	4966.T	C. Uyemura & Co Ltd	Specialty Chemicals	Specialty Chemicals	Bull	New York Stock Exchange	5G, automotive, electronics, Equity, Japan, PCB, semiconductors, specialty chemicals, Value	Login
Jun 24, 2021	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	GSMI.PS	Ginebra San Miguel Inc	Other	Distillers & Vintners	Bull	New York Stock Exchange	consumer staples, Emerging markets, Equity, Gin, market leader, Philippines, Spirits, turnaround	Login
-	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	IGT	International Game Technology	Consumer Discretionary	Casinos & Gaming	Bull	NYSE	Casinos, deleveraging, Gaming, Italy, Lottery, merger, spin-off, technology, Value	Login
-	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	AVID	Avid Technology	Other	Application Software	Bull	NASDAQ	debt refinancing, EBITDA Margin Expansion, Media Technology, recurring revenue, SaaS, Software, turnaround, Video Editing	Login
-	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	-	Melco International Development Limited	Other	Casinos & Gaming	Bull	New York Stock Exchange	Casinos, China, COVID Recovery, free cash flow yield, Gaming, Holding Company Discount, Macau, Tourism, Travel Recovery	Login
-	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	CEM.MI	Cementir SpA	Building Materials	Construction Materials	Bull	Borsa Istanbul	Cash Flow Yield, construction materials, discount to NAV, family-controlled, Green Investment, high barriers to entry, market leader, multinational, Niche Product, White Cement	Login
-	Fund Letters	Palm Harbour Capital	STERV.HE	Stora Enso Oyj	Packaging & Containers	Paper & Forest Products	Bull	NASDAQ	Asset Backing, Containerboard, Cyclical Recovery, e-commerce, forest assets, Forestry, Packaging, Pulp, Scandinavian, supply constraints	Login

Date

Pitch Type

Author

Ticker

Company

Industry

Sub Industry

Bull / Bear

Exchange

Keywords

Action

May 5, 2026

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

Cirsa Enterprises

Other

Casinos & Gaming

Bull

New York Stock Exchange

Blackstone, Casinos, Free Cash Flow, Gaming, IPO, Latin America, M&A, market leader, Omnichannel, Online betting, Regulated Markets, Slot Machines, Spain, Sports betting

Jan 20, 2026

Fund Letters

Peter Smith

LOMA

Loma Negra C.I.A.S.A.

Materials

Construction Materials

Bull

New York Stock Exchange

Argentina, cashflow, Cement, infrastructure, recovery

Jan 20, 2026

Fund Letters

Peter Smith

ATYM LN

Atalaya Mining Plc

Materials

Copper Mining

Bull

New York Stock Exchange

cashflow, Copper, Electrification, growth, Mining

Jan 20, 2026

Fund Letters

Peter Smith

012030 KS

Youngone Corporation

Consumer Discretionary

Apparel Manufacturing

Bull

New York Stock Exchange

Apparel, cashflow, Margins, Oem, recovery

Jan 20, 2026

Fund Letters

Peter Smith

DAN IM

Danieli & C Officine Meccaniche S.p.A.

Industrials

Industrial Machinery

Bull

Borsa Istanbul

backlog, Industrials, infrastructure, machinery, Steel

Jan 20, 2026

Fund Letters

Peter Smith

RHIM LN

RHI Magnesita N.V.

Materials

Construction Materials

Neutral

New York Stock Exchange

cashflow, Cyclicality, Overcapacity, Refractories, Steelcycle

Jan 20, 2026

Fund Letters

Peter Smith

6345 JP

Aichi Corporation

Industrials

Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks

Bear

New York Stock Exchange

buybacks, Capitalallocation, Control, Governance, Suppliers

Jan 20, 2026

Fund Letters

Peter Smith

KRI GA

Kri-Kri Milk Industry S.A.

Consumer Staples

Packaged Foods & Meats

Neutral

New York Stock Exchange

Dairy, Exports, growth, Margins, valuation

Jan 20, 2026

Fund Letters

Peter Smith

284740 KS

Cuckoo Homesys Co., Ltd.

Consumer Discretionary

Household Appliances

Bull

New York Stock Exchange

Appliances, dividends, expansion, Margins, Workingcapital

Jan 20, 2026

Fund Letters

Peter Smith

VIV FP

Vivendi SE

Communication Services

Media

Bull

Euronext Stock Exchange

arbitration, Catalysts, Holdingcompany, Navdiscount, restructuring

Jan 20, 2026

Fund Letters

Peter Smith

BRSL

Brightstar Lottery PLC

Information Technology

Data Processing & Outsourced Services

Bull

New York Stock Exchange

buybacks, cashflow, Contracts, Lottery, rerating

Jun 30, 2025

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

192400.KS

Cuckoo Holdings

Consumer Discretionary

Household Appliances

Bull

Korea Exchange (KRX)

Appliance Rental, Dividend Growth, holding company, Home Appliances, market leader, recurring revenue, Rice Cookers, South Korea, Sum-of-parts, Value

Mar 31, 2025

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

SUI.JO

Sun International Limited

Consumer Discretionary

Casinos & Gaming

Bull

Johannesburg Stock Exchange

activist, Casinos, deleveraging, Gaming, high dividend yield, M&A, Omnichannel, Online betting, South Africa, turnaround, Value

Dec 27, 2024

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

ODET.PA

Compagnie de l'Odet

Financials

Multi-Sector Holdings

Bull

Euronext Paris

arbitrage, Asset Disposal, complex structure, conglomerate discount, entertainment, france, holding company, media, Sum-of-parts, Value Realization

Sep 26, 2024

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

MDIA3.SA

M Dias Branco

Consumer Staples

Packaged Foods & Meats

Bull

B3 (Brazil Stock Exchange)

Brazil, consumer staples, Distribution, family-controlled, Margin recovery, market leader, Packaged Foods, turnaround, vertical integration, working capital

Dec 28, 2023

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

SOLB.BR

Solvay

Materials

Specialty Chemicals

Bull

Euronext Brussels

Belgium, cash generation, market leader, materials, Soda Ash, specialty chemicals, spin-off, turnaround, Value Realization

Sep 30, 2023

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

OCN.L

Ocean Wilsons Holdings Limited

Financials

Investment Banking & Brokerage

Bull

London Stock Exchange

Brazil, container terminals, discount to NAV, holding company, liquidation value, Maritime Services, strategic review, Sum-of-parts, Tugboat Operator, value unlock

Mar 30, 2023

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

TKA.VI

Telekom Austria

Communication Services

Integrated Telecommunication Services

Bull

Vienna Stock Exchange

Central Europe, defensive, dividend, Free Cash Flow, infrastructure, oligopoly, telecommunications, Tower Spin-off, Value

Jun 30, 2022

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

VRLA.PA

Verallia SAS

Packaging & Containers

Glass Products

Bull

Euronext Stock Exchange

barriers to entry, beverage industry, energy hedging, European Manufacturing, Glass packaging, natural gas, oligopoly, Pricing power, Sustainability

Jun 30, 2022

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

MOH.AT

Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries SA

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Bull

New York Stock Exchange

Complex Refinery, Eastern Mediterranean, energy transition, Feedstock Flexibility, Greek Market, oil refining, renewable energy, Transformation Story, Wind power

Mar 31, 2022

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

WIX.L

Wickes Group plc

Home Improvement Retail

Bull

New York Stock Exchange

DIY, Equity, home improvement, Installation Services, retail, spin-off, Tradesmen, UK, Value

Mar 31, 2022

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

BOAS3.SA

Boa Vista Serviços

Other

Research & Consulting Services

Bull

Brasil Bolsa Balcão

Brazil, Credit Bureau, Data Analytics, Emerging markets, Equity, Fintech, recurring revenue, Regulatory change

Sep 30, 2021

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

HP3A.DE

Ringmetall SE

Tools & Accessories

Metal & Glass Containers

Bull

aftermarket, Cyclical, Drum Clamping Rings, Free Cash Flow, Industrial Packaging, market share, Niche Manufacturing, Pricing power, regulatory compliance

Sep 30, 2021

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

OVS.MI

OVS SpA

Apparel Manufacturing

Apparel Retail

Bull

Borsa Istanbul

deleveraging, Family Segment, Fashion retail, Free Cash Flow, Italy, market consolidation, market share gains, Omni Channel, turnaround, Value retail

Jun 24, 2021

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

4966.T

C. Uyemura & Co Ltd

Specialty Chemicals

Bull

New York Stock Exchange

5G, automotive, electronics, Equity, Japan, PCB, semiconductors, specialty chemicals, Value

Jun 24, 2021

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

GSMI.PS

Ginebra San Miguel Inc

Other

Distillers & Vintners

Bull

New York Stock Exchange

consumer staples, Emerging markets, Equity, Gin, market leader, Philippines, Spirits, turnaround

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

IGT

International Game Technology

Consumer Discretionary

Casinos & Gaming

Bull

NYSE

Casinos, deleveraging, Gaming, Italy, Lottery, merger, spin-off, technology, Value

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

AVID

Avid Technology

Other

Application Software

Bull

NASDAQ

debt refinancing, EBITDA Margin Expansion, Media Technology, recurring revenue, SaaS, Software, turnaround, Video Editing

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

Melco International Development Limited

Other

Casinos & Gaming

Bull

New York Stock Exchange

Casinos, China, COVID Recovery, free cash flow yield, Gaming, Holding Company Discount, Macau, Tourism, Travel Recovery

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

CEM.MI

Cementir SpA

Building Materials

Construction Materials

Bull

Borsa Istanbul

Cash Flow Yield, construction materials, discount to NAV, family-controlled, Green Investment, high barriers to entry, market leader, multinational, Niche Product, White Cement

Fund Letters

Palm Harbour Capital

STERV.HE

Stora Enso Oyj

Packaging & Containers

Paper & Forest Products

Bull

NASDAQ

Asset Backing, Containerboard, Cyclical Recovery, e-commerce, forest assets, Forestry, Packaging, Pulp, Scandinavian, supply constraints

TICKER	COMMENTARY
VAR.OL	Vår Energi (+67.5%, +117 bps), the Norwegian oil and gas operator. Vår Energi is the third-largest producer on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). The company holds equity stakes in approximately 50% of all producing assets on the NCS and is one of the largest exporters of Norwegian gas to Europe. In 2025, Vår delivered a transformational year by sanctioning 10 new development projects. This expanded its reserves and resource base to approximately 2.2 billion boe. The company currently has 14 projects in execution, targeting ~210 mmboe net 2P reserves with strong economics (average breakeven of ~$30/boe). In parallel, it is advancing around 30 early-phase projects with potential to add a further ~550 mmboe. This combination of growing production, low and declining costs, stable capex, and a low-risk operating environment on the NCS positions Vår for strong free cash flow generation going forward. Even before the recent escalation of the Iran conflict, Vår Energi reported strong Q4 2025 results in February 2026, exceeding consensus operating cash flow expectations by 39%. The quarter was driven by record-high production of 397 kboepd – up 7% quarter-on-quarter and 43% year-on-year – supported by new field ramp-ups, while unit production costs reached the targeted $10/boe. For the full year 2025, production averaged 332 kboepd, with operating costs of $11.1/boe, down from $12.8/boe in 2024. Strong free cash flow reduced net leverage to 0.8x, well below the 1.3x through-the-cycle target. The company maintained its quarterly dividend at $300 million, still delivering roughly 10% yield at quarter-end, and guided for similar quarterly dividends through 2026. For 2026, Vår expects production to rise to 390–410 kboepd while keeping costs around $10/boe. Notably, management stated the company should remain cash flow neutral at oil prices as low as $40/boe through 2032. With oil currently trading well above $100/boe, Vår is well positioned for substantial free cash flow and attractive shareholder returns.
DAN.MI	Danieli & C Savers (+14.9%, +50 bps), the Italian steel plant maker and steel producer, introduced in our third quarter 2020 letter. Although sales declined 16% year-on-year due to project timing, EBITDA increased 17% exceeding expectations. The EBITDA was supported by the margin generated in the Plant Making division and by improved performance of the Steel Making division. Here, they expect to achieve solid profitability in the first half 2026, thanks to a more robust and receptive market. Moreover, the Plant Making order book increased by 10.9% to €5,967 millions and remained well diversified by geographical area and product line. The results of the two activities continue to offset each other through the ups and downs of economic cycles, while remaining consistently positive and growing overall. The clean cash (excluding advances) increased by €178 million to €929 million, covering 22% of market cap at quarter-end. Since the start of 2025, Danieli has appeared in four of our five top contributors' lists, generating a ~1.5x return. While the stock continues to look undervalued, we are taking partial profits, cognisant of rising energy and inflation risks.
BWO.OL	BW Offshore (+25%, +46 bps), the Norwegian listed owner, operator and builder of FPSOs. On 5th of December the company announced a strategic review of the business. We were bewildered by the muted share price reaction – as this was a meaningful trigger. We purchased shares and await the outcome of the review.
IBST.L	Ibstock (-27.9% -74 bps), the British brick and concrete product manufacturer, which we introduced in our third quarter 2019 letter. Group revenues rose 2%, driven by strong new-build activity in the first half, while Adjusted EBITDA fell 10% - in line with revised guidance. The margin pressure reflected ongoing cost inflation, an adverse product mix shift toward lower-margin new-build volumes, and elevated costs associated with reinstating capacity. Net debt edged slightly lower, aided by £30 million in proceeds from non-core divestments. The commissioning of the Atlas and Nostell facilities are now largely complete, which should reduce capex requirements and increase efficiency. Management expects residential new-build and repair & maintenance markets to remain subdued through the first half of 2026, with only modest volume recovery anticipated in the second half. In this environment, the key levers under the company's control are cost reduction and tight inventory management. On the cost side, approximately 80% of Ibstock's energy needs for 2026 are already secured, providing a degree of protection against the probability of another energy crisis. The timing and magnitude of recovery remains uncertain, but longer-term prospects are positive. The UK government has set an ambitious target of 300,000 annual home completions, yet delivered roughly 150,000 in 2025. Even a normalised run-rate closer to 200,000 completions should enable Ibstock to generate significant free cash flow. Owning a dominant, high-quality business through the current trough offers compelling upside potential once volumes recover toward more normalised levels.
PRT.MI	Esprinet (-20.5%, -46 bps), the Italian electronics distributor, which we introduced in our fourth quarter 2019 letter. Esprinet reported 2025 results, with sales rising 3.6% to €4,292 million. Growth was driven by a strong performance in Iberia (+10% in Spain and +47% in Portugal), while Italy remained essentially flat. Gross margin held steady at ~5.5%, supported by lower factoring costs. The resulting increase in gross profit was offset by higher operating expenses, leaving adjusted EBITDA broadly stable at €70 million. The net debt increased more than expected due to higher working capital requirements, partly linked to opportunistic inventory builds ahead of anticipated price increases. What really caught the market off guard was the announcement that Alessandro Cattani, CEO (and significant shareholder) for over 25 years, will step down effective late April 2026. He plans to remain a major shareholder. At 63, Cattani cited reduced energy for leading the company forward as the main reason for his decision. Management acknowledged that the timing and communication of the retirement could have been handled more smoothly, noting that challenging macro conditions and uncertainty around memory pricing did not help market sentiment either. On the positive side, management provided an upbeat outlook for 2026, highlighting an expected recovery in Italy and continued strong momentum in Spain and Portugal. The Board proposed a final dividend of €0.35 per share, implying a payout ratio of 85%. Despite the messy quarterly reporting and the leadership transition, Esprinet continued to generate strong free cash flows which should justify a significantly higher valuation. We remain bullish on the share.
CNVRG.PS	Converge (-19.2% -40 bps), the Philippines-based telecommunications company specializing in high-speed fiber-optic broadband internet, which we introduced in our fourth quarter 2025 letter. Converge ICT reported 10.6% year-on-year revenue growth for the fourth quarter 2025, driven by a strong 31.4% surge in the enterprise segment that more than offset the modest 6.6% growth in the residential business. Quarterly net subscriber additions slowed to 56,000 in the fourth quarter — well below the average of 121,000 over the previous three quarters. This brought the total residential user base to approximately 3 million, reflecting 16.4% year-on-year growth but only 2% quarter-on-quarter. Management attributed the slowdown to weather-related disruptions and outages, which particularly dampened demand in the prepaid segment. Looking ahead, the company expects consolidated revenue growth of 8-10% in the coming year — a slight moderation from the prior year's performance. EBITDA margins are projected to settle at 58-59%, implying a 140-240 basis point dilution. Meanwhile, capital expenditures are forecast to remain elevated at ₱18-23 billion, as Converge accelerates network expansion into the Visayas and Mindanao regions. We continue to see short-term operational challenges with room for normalisation while high capex masks true cash generation. If we are correct the upside remains significant.
VIV.PA	Vivendi (-24.9%, -37 bps), the French listed holding company with focus on content, media, and entertainment industries. Vivendi continues to face pressure, primarily due to its heavy exposure to Universal Music Group (UMG), which accounts for approximately 65% of the company's net asset value. Over the quarter, UMG's share price fell 35%, largely driven by investor concerns over future growth amid rising AI-related risks in the music industry. Although UMG's fourth quarter 2025 results beat consensus expectations — supported by several one-off items — subscription revenue growth (which represents around 40% of total sales) continued to decelerate. Cash generation remained flat, weighed down by elevated artist advances and increased catalogue investments, both of which form part of capital expenditure and are linked to the company's emerging markets growth strategy. These elevated investment levels are expected to persist into this year. We continue to regard UMG as a high-quality business that has de-rated from an elevated valuation. What we find particularly attractive now is the opportunity to gain exposure to the company at an even steeper discount through Vivendi.
UMG.AS	Universal Music Group, performed poorly during the quarter with its 18% holding ending the first quarter valued at roughly €5.6 billion. We mentioned above some AI fears rocking parts of the market and we believe UMG's 25% sell off during the quarter might partly be explained by this. Following the quarter, Pershing Square introduced a proposal that was largely financial-engineering in nature rather than operational — but it nevertheless highlighted the depth of UMG's undervaluation.

TICKER

COMMENTARY

VAR.OL

Vår Energi (+67.5%, +117 bps), the Norwegian oil and gas operator. Vår Energi is the third-largest producer on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). The company holds equity stakes in approximately 50% of all producing assets on the NCS and is one of the largest exporters of Norwegian gas to Europe. In 2025, Vår delivered a transformational year by sanctioning 10 new development projects. This expanded its reserves and resource base to approximately 2.2 billion boe. The company currently has 14 projects in execution, targeting ~210 mmboe net 2P reserves with strong economics (average breakeven of ~$30/boe). In parallel, it is advancing around 30 early-phase projects with potential to add a further ~550 mmboe. This combination of growing production, low and declining costs, stable capex, and a low-risk operating environment on the NCS positions Vår for strong free cash flow generation going forward. Even before the recent escalation of the Iran conflict, Vår Energi reported strong Q4 2025 results in February 2026, exceeding consensus operating cash flow expectations by 39%. The quarter was driven by record-high production of 397 kboepd – up 7% quarter-on-quarter and 43% year-on-year – supported by new field ramp-ups, while unit production costs reached the targeted $10/boe. For the full year 2025, production averaged 332 kboepd, with operating costs of $11.1/boe, down from $12.8/boe in 2024. Strong free cash flow reduced net leverage to 0.8x, well below the 1.3x through-the-cycle target. The company maintained its quarterly dividend at $300 million, still delivering roughly 10% yield at quarter-end, and guided for similar quarterly dividends through 2026. For 2026, Vår expects production to rise to 390–410 kboepd while keeping costs around $10/boe. Notably, management stated the company should remain cash flow neutral at oil prices as low as $40/boe through 2032. With oil currently trading well above $100/boe, Vår is well positioned for substantial free cash flow and attractive shareholder returns.

DAN.MI

Danieli & C Savers (+14.9%, +50 bps), the Italian steel plant maker and steel producer, introduced in our third quarter 2020 letter. Although sales declined 16% year-on-year due to project timing, EBITDA increased 17% exceeding expectations. The EBITDA was supported by the margin generated in the Plant Making division and by improved performance of the Steel Making division. Here, they expect to achieve solid profitability in the first half 2026, thanks to a more robust and receptive market. Moreover, the Plant Making order book increased by 10.9% to €5,967 millions and remained well diversified by geographical area and product line. The results of the two activities continue to offset each other through the ups and downs of economic cycles, while remaining consistently positive and growing overall. The clean cash (excluding advances) increased by €178 million to €929 million, covering 22% of market cap at quarter-end. Since the start of 2025, Danieli has appeared in four of our five top contributors' lists, generating a ~1.5x return. While the stock continues to look undervalued, we are taking partial profits, cognisant of rising energy and inflation risks.

BWO.OL

BW Offshore (+25%, +46 bps), the Norwegian listed owner, operator and builder of FPSOs. On 5th of December the company announced a strategic review of the business. We were bewildered by the muted share price reaction – as this was a meaningful trigger. We purchased shares and await the outcome of the review.

IBST.L

Ibstock (-27.9% -74 bps), the British brick and concrete product manufacturer, which we introduced in our third quarter 2019 letter. Group revenues rose 2%, driven by strong new-build activity in the first half, while Adjusted EBITDA fell 10% - in line with revised guidance. The margin pressure reflected ongoing cost inflation, an adverse product mix shift toward lower-margin new-build volumes, and elevated costs associated with reinstating capacity. Net debt edged slightly lower, aided by £30 million in proceeds from non-core divestments. The commissioning of the Atlas and Nostell facilities are now largely complete, which should reduce capex requirements and increase efficiency. Management expects residential new-build and repair & maintenance markets to remain subdued through the first half of 2026, with only modest volume recovery anticipated in the second half. In this environment, the key levers under the company's control are cost reduction and tight inventory management. On the cost side, approximately 80% of Ibstock's energy needs for 2026 are already secured, providing a degree of protection against the probability of another energy crisis. The timing and magnitude of recovery remains uncertain, but longer-term prospects are positive. The UK government has set an ambitious target of 300,000 annual home completions, yet delivered roughly 150,000 in 2025. Even a normalised run-rate closer to 200,000 completions should enable Ibstock to generate significant free cash flow. Owning a dominant, high-quality business through the current trough offers compelling upside potential once volumes recover toward more normalised levels.

PRT.MI

Esprinet (-20.5%, -46 bps), the Italian electronics distributor, which we introduced in our fourth quarter 2019 letter. Esprinet reported 2025 results, with sales rising 3.6% to €4,292 million. Growth was driven by a strong performance in Iberia (+10% in Spain and +47% in Portugal), while Italy remained essentially flat. Gross margin held steady at ~5.5%, supported by lower factoring costs. The resulting increase in gross profit was offset by higher operating expenses, leaving adjusted EBITDA broadly stable at €70 million. The net debt increased more than expected due to higher working capital requirements, partly linked to opportunistic inventory builds ahead of anticipated price increases. What really caught the market off guard was the announcement that Alessandro Cattani, CEO (and significant shareholder) for over 25 years, will step down effective late April 2026. He plans to remain a major shareholder. At 63, Cattani cited reduced energy for leading the company forward as the main reason for his decision. Management acknowledged that the timing and communication of the retirement could have been handled more smoothly, noting that challenging macro conditions and uncertainty around memory pricing did not help market sentiment either. On the positive side, management provided an upbeat outlook for 2026, highlighting an expected recovery in Italy and continued strong momentum in Spain and Portugal. The Board proposed a final dividend of €0.35 per share, implying a payout ratio of 85%. Despite the messy quarterly reporting and the leadership transition, Esprinet continued to generate strong free cash flows which should justify a significantly higher valuation. We remain bullish on the share.

CNVRG.PS

Converge (-19.2% -40 bps), the Philippines-based telecommunications company specializing in high-speed fiber-optic broadband internet, which we introduced in our fourth quarter 2025 letter. Converge ICT reported 10.6% year-on-year revenue growth for the fourth quarter 2025, driven by a strong 31.4% surge in the enterprise segment that more than offset the modest 6.6% growth in the residential business. Quarterly net subscriber additions slowed to 56,000 in the fourth quarter — well below the average of 121,000 over the previous three quarters. This brought the total residential user base to approximately 3 million, reflecting 16.4% year-on-year growth but only 2% quarter-on-quarter. Management attributed the slowdown to weather-related disruptions and outages, which particularly dampened demand in the prepaid segment. Looking ahead, the company expects consolidated revenue growth of 8-10% in the coming year — a slight moderation from the prior year's performance. EBITDA margins are projected to settle at 58-59%, implying a 140-240 basis point dilution. Meanwhile, capital expenditures are forecast to remain elevated at ₱18-23 billion, as Converge accelerates network expansion into the Visayas and Mindanao regions. We continue to see short-term operational challenges with room for normalisation while high capex masks true cash generation. If we are correct the upside remains significant.

VIV.PA

Vivendi (-24.9%, -37 bps), the French listed holding company with focus on content, media, and entertainment industries. Vivendi continues to face pressure, primarily due to its heavy exposure to Universal Music Group (UMG), which accounts for approximately 65% of the company's net asset value. Over the quarter, UMG's share price fell 35%, largely driven by investor concerns over future growth amid rising AI-related risks in the music industry. Although UMG's fourth quarter 2025 results beat consensus expectations — supported by several one-off items — subscription revenue growth (which represents around 40% of total sales) continued to decelerate. Cash generation remained flat, weighed down by elevated artist advances and increased catalogue investments, both of which form part of capital expenditure and are linked to the company's emerging markets growth strategy. These elevated investment levels are expected to persist into this year. We continue to regard UMG as a high-quality business that has de-rated from an elevated valuation. What we find particularly attractive now is the opportunity to gain exposure to the company at an even steeper discount through Vivendi.

UMG.AS

Universal Music Group, performed poorly during the quarter with its 18% holding ending the first quarter valued at roughly €5.6 billion. We mentioned above some AI fears rocking parts of the market and we believe UMG's 25% sell off during the quarter might partly be explained by this. Following the quarter, Pershing Square introduced a proposal that was largely financial-engineering in nature rather than operational — but it nevertheless highlighted the depth of UMG's undervaluation.

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