| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | -0.56% | -0.56% |
Palm Harbour Capital lost 0.56% in Q1 2026 but remains extremely optimistic about portfolio prospects. The fund focuses on undervalued companies across Europe and globally, maintaining a concentrated approach with over 110% estimated upside to NAV. Top contributor Vitzrocell, a South Korean lithium battery manufacturer, gained 95.5% as military and oil & gas applications drove strong growth. Norwegian oil producer Vår Energi contributed 117 basis points, benefiting from record production and strong free cash flow generation with oil above $100/boe. The manager introduced a detailed analysis of new holding Cirsa Enterprises, a Spanish gaming company with operations across multiple jurisdictions. Key detractors included Ibstock, affected by subdued UK housing markets, and Vivendi, pressured by AI concerns around Universal Music Group. The portfolio trades at 6.3x P/E with 18% FCF yield and 28% return on tangible capital. Management maintains long-term value discipline, taking advantage of volatility while focusing on micro-economics of individual businesses rather than macro noise.
Focus on undervalued rare gems through long-term value discipline, maintaining micro-economic focus on individual businesses while shutting out macro noise and taking advantage of volatility to find opportunities.
The manager is extremely optimistic about the portfolio's prospects and believes they will reach their compounded annual return aspiration over time. They continue to believe this is a great time to be a value investor and are very excited about the medium-term prospects for the portfolio.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5 2026 | 2026 Q1 | BWO.OL, CNVRG.PS, DAN.MI, IBST.L, PRT.MI, UMG.AS, VAR.OL, VIV.PA | energy, Europe, gaming, long-term, small caps, undervalued, value | - | Palm Harbour Capital's concentrated European value strategy delivered -0.56% in Q1 2026 despite strong individual contributors including South Korean battery maker Vitzrocell (+95.5%) and Norwegian oil producer Vår Energi. The portfolio trades at attractive 6.3x P/E with significant upside potential. Management remains extremely optimistic about medium-term prospects while maintaining disciplined long-term value approach. |
| Jan 20 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 001910.KS, 047440.KS, 086280.KS, 6345.T, ASLI.L, ATYM.L, BSRT, BWO.OL, CIR.MI, CNVRG.PS, DAN.MI, DITO.PS, FLRY3.SA, GLO.PS, KRI.AT, LOMA.BA, MDIA3.SA, PTEC.L, SGF.MI, TEL.PS, TRE.OL, VIV.PA, WOSG.L, WWI.OL | Argentina, Broadband, Cash Generation, Copper, global, Governance, Steel, value |
LOMA ATYM LN 012030 KS DAN IM RHIM LN 6345 JP KRI GA 284740 KS VIV FP BRSL |
Palm Harbour delivered 16% returns in 2025 through disciplined value investing in cash-generative businesses. Key contributors included Argentine cement producer Loma Negra following Milei's victory and copper miner Atalaya Mining. The fund actively managed governance risks while adding Philippines telecom Converge ICT. Portfolio trades at 8.1x P/E with 95% upside to NAV, positioning for strong medium-term prospects. |
| Nov 13 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 111770.KS, AMZN, ATYM.L, CAL.MI, CNVG.PS, DAN.MI, ESP.MI, GOOGL, INDF.JK, LOMA.BA, META, MSFT, NVDA, RHI.L, UMG.AS, VIV.PA | AI, Asia, Copper, Europe, LatAM, small caps, value | - | Palm Harbour Capital delivered 1.57% in Q3 while deliberately avoiding the AI concentration dominating markets. The fund focuses on overlooked small-caps across Asia, Latin America, and Europe with strong cash flows and attractive valuations. Portfolio trades at 9.1x P/E with 91% upside potential, offering compelling diversification from dangerous US mega-cap concentration that now exceeds 2000 bubble levels. |
| Aug 5 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 021240.KS, 086280.KS, 192400.KS, 284740.KS, 5336.KL, 7965.T, HAN.L, HANA.L, PNDXB.ST, PORT3.SA, SHOT.ST | gaming, global, inflation, NAV, small caps, tariffs, value | 192400.KS | Palm Harbour delivered strong Q2 returns of 5.97% with portfolio trading at 8.9x P/E and 97% upside to NAV. Manager extremely optimistic on small cap global value opportunities while avoiding overvalued US markets. Focus on companies with pricing power to outpace inflation amid concerns over tariffs and unsustainable government debt levels. |
| Apr 22 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 4628.T, 6298.T, DAN.MI, ENOG.L, IGT.MI, JST.DE, LTO.MI, NOEJ.DE, OCWN.L, ODET.PA, PPA.AT, SUI.JO, TISG.MI, VRLA.PA | Europe, gaming, small caps, tariffs, Trade Policy, undervalued, value, volatility | SUI.JO | Palm Harbour Capital gained 2.63% in Q1 2025, focusing on undervalued small-cap companies with strong cash generation. Despite Trump tariff concerns creating market volatility, the manager sees buying opportunities in overlooked securities trading at 8.6x P/E with 19% FCF yields. Portfolio positioned defensively with limited US trade exposure while maintaining optimistic outlook on intrinsic value convergence. |
| Mar 5 2025 | 2024 Q4 | 9404.T, BOL.PA, EOAN.L, GSMI.PS, IGT.MI, LTO.MI, MDIA3.SA, ODET.PA, OWIL.L, PPA.AT, PRT.MI, TKA.VI, UMG.AS, VIV.PA | Europe, gaming, global, inflation, Media, Politics, small caps, value | ODET.PA | Palm Harbour Capital's global small cap value fund returned +12.7% in 2024 despite Q4 weakness. The portfolio trades at 8.5x P/E with 98% estimated upside, focusing on overlooked securities while avoiding overvalued US markets. Key holdings include gaming, media, and industrial companies across Europe and Asia. Management remains optimistic about medium-term prospects for disciplined value investing. |
| Oct 16 2024 | 2024 Q3 | CLNX.MC, DAL.L, DAN.MI, GSMI.PS, IBST.L, JST.DE, KRIKRI.AT, MDIA3.SA, OCI.AS, PORT3.SA, SYENS.BR, UNIR.MI, VAR.OL, VRLA.PA | Cash Generation, Cyclical, Europe, small cap, takeovers, value | MDIA3.SA | Palm Harbour delivered +4.4% in Q3 with portfolio trading at 8.9x P/E and 97% upside to NAV. Two takeover offers contributed performance while OCI moves toward liquidation with $11.6 billion asset sales. Manager remains extremely optimistic about value opportunities, positioning in quality businesses at cyclical lows with clear re-rating catalysts. |
| Jul 29 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 0FHO LN, CED IM, DAL LN, GSMI PM, IGT, LNA FP, OCI NA, PPA GA, SOLB BB, TKA AV, WIX LN | - | - | |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | 1952.T, 9404.T, ALL.AX, CIR.MI, EVRI, FDJ.PA, FLTR.L, HAT.L, IGT, LNW, OCWN, OPAP.AT, PBL.TO, PPA.AT, SYENS.BR, TISG.MI | Buybacks, dividends, Europe, gaming, Media, Ports, small caps, value | IGT | Palm Harbour delivered 4.6% in Q1 with a concentrated value portfolio trading at 8.9x P/E and 101% estimated upside. Strong performance from Japanese holdings benefiting from corporate governance improvements and Brazilian port operations. Added Greek port exposure betting on trade normalization. Management extremely optimistic about medium-term value realization opportunities. |
| Jan 31 2024 | 2023 Q4 | BAYN.DE, IGT, MLCO, OCI.AS, RHIM.L, SOLB.BR, SYENS.BR, TKA.VI | Chemicals, Europe, Japan, special situations, value | SOLB.BR | Palm Harbour delivered 6.3% in Q4 2023 with 13.1% full-year returns, driven by successful special situations including Solvay's spin-off and increased Japanese exposure capitalizing on corporate governance reforms. The concentrated portfolio trades at 8.1x P/E with significant upside potential, positioning for continued value creation through activist situations and undervalued European companies. |
| Oct 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | 6966.T, AVID, DAN.MI, DHG.L, LNA.PA, OCI.AS, OCN.L, OVS.MI, PCAR3.SA, PORT3.SA, PRT.MI, STEAV.HE, TKA.VI, VRLA.PA | Europe, free cash flow, rates, small caps, Spin-Offs, value | OCN.L | European small-cap value fund targeting 10% FCF yields gained 1.86% in Q3 despite sector weakness. Portfolio trades at 7.5x P/E with 114% upside to NAV. Manager extremely optimistic about prospects, viewing current derating of quality companies with strong balance sheets as counterintuitive setup for exceptional future performance. |
| Aug 8 2023 | 2023 Q2 | 086280 KS, 200 HK, 4966 JP, IGT, LNA FP, LTMC IM, MTX GR, OCI NA, PRT IM, RHIM LN, VARRY | - | - | |
| Apr 23 2023 | 2023 Q1 | CAL.MI, CIR.MI, DAN.MI, GSMI.PS, IGT, IHRT, OCI.AS, PRT.MI, TESB.BR, TKA.VI, VAR.OL | Banking, dividends, Europe, portfolio, Steel, Telecommunications, value | TKA.VI | European value fund delivered 7.2% in Q1 2023 with portfolio trading at 8.5x P/E and 19% FCF yield. Strong performance from dividend growers like Ginebra San Miguel and industrial plays like Danieli. Added Telekom Austria position for defensive telecom model and tower spin-off catalyst. Manager extremely optimistic about value opportunities. |
| Nov 2 2023 | 2022 Q4 | BOAVSTB BZ, CALT IM, IBST LN, IGT, IHRT, JST GR, LNA FP, MOH GA, MTX GR, RHIM LN, VRLA FP | - | - | |
| Nov 15 2022 | 2022 Q3 | 4966 JP, BAYA GR, GPL SJ, GSMI PM, HAT LN, IGT, MHZ GR, OCI NA, ODF GR, RHIM SW, UNIR IM | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
GamingDetailed analysis of Cirsa Enterprises, a Spanish omni-channel gaming company with operations across Spain, Latin America and Italy. The company operates 460 casinos, 80,000 slot machines and has a rapidly growing online gaming division. Management expects solid growth driven by online sports betting expansion and casino expansion strategy. |
Casinos Sports Betting Online Gaming Spain Latin America |
OilStrong performance from Vår Energi, the Norwegian oil and gas operator, which delivered transformational year by sanctioning 10 new development projects. The company is well positioned for substantial free cash flow with oil trading well above $100/boe and should remain cash flow neutral at oil prices as low as $40/boe through 2032. |
Norwegian Oil Energy Production Free Cash Flow Oil Prices | |
MusicExposure to Universal Music Group through holdings in Odet and Vivendi. UMG faced pressure during the quarter with 25% sell-off partly explained by AI fears. Despite concerns over future growth amid rising AI-related risks, the manager continues to regard UMG as a high-quality business that has de-rated from an elevated valuation. |
Universal Music AI Impact Content Streaming | |
Battery Supply ChainTop contributor Vitzrocell, the leading South Korean lithium primary batteries manufacturer, gained 95.5% during the quarter. Primary batteries have superior qualities for extreme environments including longer lifetime, higher energy density, and higher temperature ranges, making them ideal for smart meters, military and oil & gas applications. |
Lithium Batteries Smart Meters Military Energy Storage | |
SteelDanieli, the Italian steel plant maker and steel producer, was a significant contributor with 14.9% gain. Although sales declined 16% year-on-year due to project timing, EBITDA increased 17% exceeding expectations. The Plant Making order book increased by 10.9% and remained well diversified. |
Steel Production Plant Making Italy Industrial | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIArtificial intelligence enthusiasm supported large-cap growth companies and drove technology-led earnings growth. Much of today's technology-led earnings growth is supported by long-term capital investment in AI, energy, and infrastructure reflecting demographic pressures and labor scarcity. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Investment Growth Infrastructure |
ValuationsEquity valuations remain elevated with the S&P 500 trading near 23x forward earnings, well above its long-term average of roughly 15.6x. Elevated valuations do not imply an imminent market downturn but tend to constrain longer-term returns and may increase market sensitivity to earnings disappointments. |
Valuations Earnings Market Risk Sensitivity | |
EarningsStrong corporate earnings, particularly within technology and communication services, drove market gains. Current valuation levels suggest returns will depend more on earnings durability and cash-flow generation than on further multiple expansion. |
Earnings Corporate Technology Cash Flow Growth | |
DollarA weaker U.S. dollar, down 9.4% in 2025, provided a notable tailwind for foreign assets and helped drive international equity outperformance over U.S. markets for the first time in several years. |
Dollar Currency International Foreign Assets Outperformance | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in December, bringing the policy rate to 3.5%-3.75%. The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 and currently expects one more cut in 2026, while markets are pricing in roughly two additional cuts. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Rate Cuts Policy | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIInvestor attention remains heavily concentrated on artificial intelligence and a narrow group of related equities, sidelining much of the broader market. The concentration of capital in AI-related stocks is even greater than the technology sector's concentration in 2000. Questions remain about profitability models and sustainability of current AI investment levels. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Concentration Valuations Investment |
CopperThe fund remains positive on copper's long-term prospects due to supply restrictions from historical under-investment and licensing complexities, combined with booming demand from energy transition, technology, and artificial intelligence applications. Atalaya Mining provides optionality through a promising pipeline of copper projects. |
Energy Transition Supply Restriction Mining Technology Demand | |
SteelThe EU Commission has a plan to protect the EU steel industry from unfair competition, targeting Chinese imports which have hurt the industry. If implemented, the EU steel industry is expected to see much better days, supporting both Danieli's plant making and steel making segments. |
Trade Protection Chinese Competition EU Policy Industrial Tariffs | |
CementArgentine cement market faces challenges from low utilization rates and pricing pressures in early recovery stages. However, competition has historically been rational, and significant upside potential exists once Argentina's real estate market normalizes and government spending picks up again. |
Argentina Real Estate Utilization Recovery Pricing | |
ApparelYoungone operates as a top-tier OEM manufacturer of outdoor and activewear with long-term partnerships with premium brands. The business serves a market niche commanding premium margins through expertise in technical garments, though faces tariff pressures from US trade policy. |
OEM Manufacturing Technical Garments Premium Brands Tariffs Supply Chain | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ValuePortfolio trading at weighted average P/E of 8.9x with more than 97% upside to estimated NAV. Manager emphasizes finding global opportunities at good to great valuations while avoiding overvalued markets. Focus on undervalued companies with strong fundamentals. |
Valuation NAV Discount Undervalued P/E |
GamingSignificant exposure to gaming companies including Lottomatica (Italian multichannel gaming operator), Playtech (gambling technology provider), and International Game Technology (lottery and gaming machine technology). Strong performance from gaming holdings with Lottomatica and Playtech as top contributors. |
Lottomatica Playtech IGT Lottery Sports Betting | |
Small CapsManager explicitly states it is a good time to be a small cap global investor. Portfolio consists of smaller companies across various geographies, taking advantage of opportunities not available in large cap indices. |
Small Cap Global Opportunities Niche Undervalued | |
InflationManager expresses concern about inflation from tariffs and government spending, describing policies as highly inflationary. Invests in companies believed capable of raising prices and outpacing inflation to grow wealth over the long-term. |
Inflation Pricing Power Tariffs Government Debt Currency | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyManager extensively discusses Trump's tariff policies as negotiating tactics, believing they won't be fully implemented. Views tariffs as economically irrational and expects deals to be reached to avoid stagflation. |
Tariffs Negotiations Supply Chains Stagflation Trade War |
ValueFund focuses on smaller, competitively advantaged, cash-generative, lowly valued companies while avoiding speculative market darlings. Portfolio trades at 8.6x P/E with 19% FCF yield. |
Undervalued Cash Generation Intrinsic Value Discount Fundamentals | |
GamingSignificant exposure to gaming companies including Lottomatica (top contributor), International Game Technology, and Sun International. Focus on regulated gaming markets with competitive advantages. |
Casinos Online Gaming Sports Betting Lottery Gaming Revenue | |
Risk AppetiteManager views current market volatility as opportunity rather than risk, emphasizing that volatility is not risk and permanent capital impairment is the true risk measure. |
Volatility Opportunity Capital Impairment Market Panic Speculation | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueFund focuses on overlooked securities trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value with above average returns on capital. Portfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 8.5x with 98% upside to estimated NAV. |
Discount Intrinsic Undervalued P/E FCF |
GamingMultiple gaming investments including Lottomatica (Italian gaming operator) and International Game Technologies (lottery and gaming technology). Italian gaming market consolidation creating opportunities. |
Lottery Sports Betting Online Gaming Italy Consolidation | |
MediaHoldings include Nippon Television (Japanese media conglomerate) and exposure to Universal Music Group through Bolloré structure. Focus on content creation and distribution businesses. |
Television Content Music Japan Entertainment | |
InflationManager believes staying invested is prudent to combat inflation and continue compounding wealth. Concerns about potential inflation from tariffs and wage costs in labor-intensive industries. |
Tariffs Wages Compounding Hedging Currency | |
| 2024 Q3 |
ValuePortfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 8.9x with 97% upside to estimated NAV. Manager emphasizes buying quality businesses at cyclical lows, citing examples like Unieuro receiving lowball takeover bid during downturn. Focus on cash-generative businesses trading below historical multiples. |
Valuation Cyclical Cash Generation Discount Multiple |
FertilizersOCI completed major asset sales totaling $11.6 billion gross value including Iowa Fertilizer Company and Global Methanol Business. Company moving toward potential liquidation with only European Nitrogen business remaining. Expected large tax-free dividend distribution to shareholders. |
Nitrogen Methanol Divestiture Liquidation Distribution | |
SteelDanieli faces pressure from Chinese steel exports reaching eight-year high in 2024, impacting European pricing. However, manager sees multi-decade tailwind from plant making division as global steel industry adopts their technology for green steel production. EU expected to impose steeper tariffs for protection. |
Chinese Exports Plant Making Green Steel Tariffs Technology | |
FoodM Dias Branco is Brazil's market leader in cookies & crackers (31.8% share) and pasta (28.9% share). Company recovering from COVID and inflation impacts, implementing operational improvements including SKU simplification and supply chain optimization. Management targeting margin recovery to 15-16% range. |
Brazil Market Leader Operational Efficiency Margin Recovery Distribution | |
| 2024 Q1 |
ValuePortfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 8.9x with 17% FCF/EV yield and 28% return on tangible capital. Manager believes portfolio has more than 101% upside to estimated NAV. Focus on undervalued companies with strong cash generation and balance sheet efficiency opportunities. |
Undervalued Cash Generation Balance Sheet Discount NAV |
BuybacksMultiple portfolio companies implementing share buyback programs including Nippon Television's ¥7 billion buyback and CIR's ongoing buyback program. These corporate actions are viewed as catalysts for unlocking shareholder value. |
Share Buybacks Capital Return Value Unlock Corporate Actions | |
DividendsOcean Wilson increased dividend by 21% from $0.70 to $0.85 per share based on strong operating performance. Nippon Television changed dividend policy to be more favorable for foreign investors as part of balance sheet efficiency improvements. |
Dividend Increase Dividend Policy Foreign Investors Cash Return | |
| 2023 Q4 |
JapanJapan has been one of the cheapest markets in recent years due to poor corporate governance and capital allocation. The new CEO of the Japanese Stock Exchange has openly criticized companies trading below book value and demanded improved capital efficiency. This has created a potential multi-year bull market for value stocks in Japan as companies begin using cash piles for investment and shareholder returns. |
Corporate Governance Capital Allocation Value Buybacks Dividends |
FertilizersFollowing a very strong 2022 when commodity prices skyrocketed, there was over-stocking in the value chain causing a pricing downturn in 2023. With Russian exports unabated, it remains unclear when the downturn will end, though supply/demand balance is expected to improve in coming years. |
Commodity Chemicals Agriculture Supply Chain Pricing | |
Specialty ChemicalsThe Solvay spin-off created Syensqo, a growth-focused specialty chemical company producing high-performance polymers and materials for aerospace, autos and electronics. The company holds top-three positions in 90% of its markets and focuses on battery materials, green hydrogen, and renewable materials. |
Polymers Aerospace Battery Materials Green Hydrogen | |
| 2023 Q3 |
ValueManager emphasizes buying companies at 10% free cash flow yields with strong balance sheets and cash flows. Portfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 7.5x and FCF/EV yield of 18%. Believes current environment creates great setup for value investing performance in coming years. |
Free Cash Flow Valuation Discount Undervalued Margin of Safety |
Small CapsPortfolio consists of small-cap value stocks that appear to be derating despite strong fundamentals. Manager notes small-cap value sector experiencing theme-specific weakness with defensive names lacking bids. Views this as counterintuitive setup for future performance. |
Small Cap Derating Fundamentals Sector | |
RatesManager believes 5% yields on ten-year government bonds seem reasonable and healthy for clearing junk from markets. Portfolio companies can handle 5% rates given their high free cash flow yields and pricing power. Views rate normalization as positive for capital discipline. |
Interest Rates Bond Yields Capital Discipline | |
FertilizersOCI nitrogen fertilizer and methanol producer faced softened ammonia and urea markets in first half 2023 due to lower demand and gas price hedging losses. Manager reduced exposure but prepared to add on decline as prices stabilized. Remains structurally positive on ammonia, urea, DEF and methanol markets. |
Ammonia Urea Methanol Gas Prices | |
| 2023 Q1 |
ValuePortfolio trades at weighted average P/E of 8.5x, FCF/EV yield of 19% and return on tangible capital of 30%. Manager believes this is a great time to be a value investor and sees more than 105% upside to estimated NAV. |
Valuation FCF P/E NAV Discount |
DividendsGinebra San Miguel significantly boosted dividends from 5.5 PHP to forecast 10 PHP for 2023, implying nearly 10% yield. OCI plans €3.5 per share dividend bringing twelve-month distributions to €8.5 per share. Telekom Austria spin-off could enable special dividend. |
Dividend Yield Payout Distribution Special | |
Telecom InfrastructureTelekom Austria operates in oligopolistic markets with pricing power through inflation-linked tariffs. The tower spin-off is expected to unlock value and reduce leverage, potentially allowing for special dividend or M&A activity. |
Towers 5G Fiber Infrastructure Spin-off | |
SteelDanieli's steel segment drove 25% EBITDA growth due to favorable prices, volumes and energy subsidies. EU carbon tax from 2026 on non-green imported steel should benefit their green technologies division and drive demand for their plant-making business. |
Steel EBITDA Carbon Green Technology |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Palm Harbour Capital | - | Cirsa Enterprises | Other | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Blackstone, Casinos, Free Cash Flow, Gaming, IPO, Latin America, M&A, market leader, Omnichannel, Online betting, Regulated Markets, Slot Machines, Spain, Sports betting | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Peter Smith | RHIM LN | RHI Magnesita N.V. | Materials | Construction Materials | Neutral | New York Stock Exchange | cashflow, Cyclicality, Overcapacity, Refractories, Steelcycle | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Peter Smith | 6345 JP | Aichi Corporation | Industrials | Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, Capitalallocation, Control, Governance, Suppliers | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Peter Smith | KRI GA | Kri-Kri Milk Industry S.A. | Consumer Staples | Packaged Foods & Meats | Neutral | New York Stock Exchange | Dairy, Exports, growth, Margins, valuation | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Peter Smith | 284740 KS | Cuckoo Homesys Co., Ltd. | Consumer Discretionary | Household Appliances | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Appliances, dividends, expansion, Margins, Workingcapital | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Peter Smith | VIV FP | Vivendi SE | Communication Services | Media | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | arbitration, Catalysts, Holdingcompany, Navdiscount, restructuring | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Peter Smith | BRSL | Brightstar Lottery PLC | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, cashflow, Contracts, Lottery, rerating | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Peter Smith | LOMA | Loma Negra C.I.A.S.A. | Materials | Construction Materials | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Argentina, cashflow, Cement, infrastructure, recovery | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Peter Smith | ATYM LN | Atalaya Mining Plc | Materials | Copper Mining | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | cashflow, Copper, Electrification, growth, Mining | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Peter Smith | 012030 KS | Youngone Corporation | Consumer Discretionary | Apparel Manufacturing | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Apparel, cashflow, Margins, Oem, recovery | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Peter Smith | DAN IM | Danieli & C Officine Meccaniche S.p.A. | Industrials | Industrial Machinery | Bull | Borsa Istanbul | backlog, Industrials, infrastructure, machinery, Steel | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Palm Harbour Capital | 192400.KS | Cuckoo Holdings | Consumer Discretionary | Household Appliances | Bull | Korea Exchange (KRX) | Appliance Rental, Dividend Growth, holding company, Home Appliances, market leader, recurring revenue, Rice Cookers, South Korea, Sum-of-parts, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Palm Harbour Capital | SUI.JO | Sun International Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | Johannesburg Stock Exchange | activist, Casinos, deleveraging, Gaming, high dividend yield, M&A, Omnichannel, Online betting, South Africa, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Dec 27, 2024 | Fund Letters | Palm Harbour Capital | ODET.PA | Compagnie de l'Odet | Financials | Multi-Sector Holdings | Bull | Euronext Paris | arbitrage, Asset Disposal, complex structure, conglomerate discount, entertainment, france, holding company, media, Sum-of-parts, Value Realization | Login |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Fund Letters | Palm Harbour Capital | MDIA3.SA | M Dias Branco | Consumer Staples | Packaged Foods & Meats | Bull | B3 (Brazil Stock Exchange) | Brazil, consumer staples, Distribution, family-controlled, Margin recovery, market leader, Packaged Foods, turnaround, vertical integration, working capital | Login |
| Dec 28, 2023 | Fund Letters | Palm Harbour Capital | SOLB.BR | Solvay | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | Euronext Brussels | Belgium, cash generation, market leader, materials, Soda Ash, specialty chemicals, spin-off, turnaround, Value Realization | Login |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Palm Harbour Capital | OCN.L | Ocean Wilsons Holdings Limited | Financials | Investment Banking & Brokerage | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Brazil, container terminals, discount to NAV, holding company, liquidation value, Maritime Services, strategic review, Sum-of-parts, Tugboat Operator, value unlock | Login |
| Mar 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Palm Harbour Capital | TKA.VI | Telekom Austria | Communication Services | Integrated Telecommunication Services | Bull | Vienna Stock Exchange | Central Europe, defensive, dividend, Free Cash Flow, infrastructure, oligopoly, telecommunications, Tower Spin-off, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Palm Harbour Capital | IGT | International Game Technology | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | NYSE | Casinos, deleveraging, Gaming, Italy, Lottery, merger, spin-off, technology, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| VAR.OL | Vår Energi (+67.5%, +117 bps), the Norwegian oil and gas operator. Vår Energi is the third-largest producer on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). The company holds equity stakes in approximately 50% of all producing assets on the NCS and is one of the largest exporters of Norwegian gas to Europe. In 2025, Vår delivered a transformational year by sanctioning 10 new development projects. This expanded its reserves and resource base to approximately 2.2 billion boe. The company currently has 14 projects in execution, targeting ~210 mmboe net 2P reserves with strong economics (average breakeven of ~$30/boe). In parallel, it is advancing around 30 early-phase projects with potential to add a further ~550 mmboe. This combination of growing production, low and declining costs, stable capex, and a low-risk operating environment on the NCS positions Vår for strong free cash flow generation going forward. Even before the recent escalation of the Iran conflict, Vår Energi reported strong Q4 2025 results in February 2026, exceeding consensus operating cash flow expectations by 39%. The quarter was driven by record-high production of 397 kboepd – up 7% quarter-on-quarter and 43% year-on-year – supported by new field ramp-ups, while unit production costs reached the targeted $10/boe. For the full year 2025, production averaged 332 kboepd, with operating costs of $11.1/boe, down from $12.8/boe in 2024. Strong free cash flow reduced net leverage to 0.8x, well below the 1.3x through-the-cycle target. The company maintained its quarterly dividend at $300 million, still delivering roughly 10% yield at quarter-end, and guided for similar quarterly dividends through 2026. For 2026, Vår expects production to rise to 390–410 kboepd while keeping costs around $10/boe. Notably, management stated the company should remain cash flow neutral at oil prices as low as $40/boe through 2032. With oil currently trading well above $100/boe, Vår is well positioned for substantial free cash flow and attractive shareholder returns. |
| DAN.MI | Danieli & C Savers (+14.9%, +50 bps), the Italian steel plant maker and steel producer, introduced in our third quarter 2020 letter. Although sales declined 16% year-on-year due to project timing, EBITDA increased 17% exceeding expectations. The EBITDA was supported by the margin generated in the Plant Making division and by improved performance of the Steel Making division. Here, they expect to achieve solid profitability in the first half 2026, thanks to a more robust and receptive market. Moreover, the Plant Making order book increased by 10.9% to €5,967 millions and remained well diversified by geographical area and product line. The results of the two activities continue to offset each other through the ups and downs of economic cycles, while remaining consistently positive and growing overall. The clean cash (excluding advances) increased by €178 million to €929 million, covering 22% of market cap at quarter-end. Since the start of 2025, Danieli has appeared in four of our five top contributors' lists, generating a ~1.5x return. While the stock continues to look undervalued, we are taking partial profits, cognisant of rising energy and inflation risks. |
| BWO.OL | BW Offshore (+25%, +46 bps), the Norwegian listed owner, operator and builder of FPSOs. On 5th of December the company announced a strategic review of the business. We were bewildered by the muted share price reaction – as this was a meaningful trigger. We purchased shares and await the outcome of the review. |
| IBST.L | Ibstock (-27.9% -74 bps), the British brick and concrete product manufacturer, which we introduced in our third quarter 2019 letter. Group revenues rose 2%, driven by strong new-build activity in the first half, while Adjusted EBITDA fell 10% - in line with revised guidance. The margin pressure reflected ongoing cost inflation, an adverse product mix shift toward lower-margin new-build volumes, and elevated costs associated with reinstating capacity. Net debt edged slightly lower, aided by £30 million in proceeds from non-core divestments. The commissioning of the Atlas and Nostell facilities are now largely complete, which should reduce capex requirements and increase efficiency. Management expects residential new-build and repair & maintenance markets to remain subdued through the first half of 2026, with only modest volume recovery anticipated in the second half. In this environment, the key levers under the company's control are cost reduction and tight inventory management. On the cost side, approximately 80% of Ibstock's energy needs for 2026 are already secured, providing a degree of protection against the probability of another energy crisis. The timing and magnitude of recovery remains uncertain, but longer-term prospects are positive. The UK government has set an ambitious target of 300,000 annual home completions, yet delivered roughly 150,000 in 2025. Even a normalised run-rate closer to 200,000 completions should enable Ibstock to generate significant free cash flow. Owning a dominant, high-quality business through the current trough offers compelling upside potential once volumes recover toward more normalised levels. |
| PRT.MI | Esprinet (-20.5%, -46 bps), the Italian electronics distributor, which we introduced in our fourth quarter 2019 letter. Esprinet reported 2025 results, with sales rising 3.6% to €4,292 million. Growth was driven by a strong performance in Iberia (+10% in Spain and +47% in Portugal), while Italy remained essentially flat. Gross margin held steady at ~5.5%, supported by lower factoring costs. The resulting increase in gross profit was offset by higher operating expenses, leaving adjusted EBITDA broadly stable at €70 million. The net debt increased more than expected due to higher working capital requirements, partly linked to opportunistic inventory builds ahead of anticipated price increases. What really caught the market off guard was the announcement that Alessandro Cattani, CEO (and significant shareholder) for over 25 years, will step down effective late April 2026. He plans to remain a major shareholder. At 63, Cattani cited reduced energy for leading the company forward as the main reason for his decision. Management acknowledged that the timing and communication of the retirement could have been handled more smoothly, noting that challenging macro conditions and uncertainty around memory pricing did not help market sentiment either. On the positive side, management provided an upbeat outlook for 2026, highlighting an expected recovery in Italy and continued strong momentum in Spain and Portugal. The Board proposed a final dividend of €0.35 per share, implying a payout ratio of 85%. Despite the messy quarterly reporting and the leadership transition, Esprinet continued to generate strong free cash flows which should justify a significantly higher valuation. We remain bullish on the share. |
| CNVRG.PS | Converge (-19.2% -40 bps), the Philippines-based telecommunications company specializing in high-speed fiber-optic broadband internet, which we introduced in our fourth quarter 2025 letter. Converge ICT reported 10.6% year-on-year revenue growth for the fourth quarter 2025, driven by a strong 31.4% surge in the enterprise segment that more than offset the modest 6.6% growth in the residential business. Quarterly net subscriber additions slowed to 56,000 in the fourth quarter — well below the average of 121,000 over the previous three quarters. This brought the total residential user base to approximately 3 million, reflecting 16.4% year-on-year growth but only 2% quarter-on-quarter. Management attributed the slowdown to weather-related disruptions and outages, which particularly dampened demand in the prepaid segment. Looking ahead, the company expects consolidated revenue growth of 8-10% in the coming year — a slight moderation from the prior year's performance. EBITDA margins are projected to settle at 58-59%, implying a 140-240 basis point dilution. Meanwhile, capital expenditures are forecast to remain elevated at ₱18-23 billion, as Converge accelerates network expansion into the Visayas and Mindanao regions. We continue to see short-term operational challenges with room for normalisation while high capex masks true cash generation. If we are correct the upside remains significant. |
| VIV.PA | Vivendi (-24.9%, -37 bps), the French listed holding company with focus on content, media, and entertainment industries. Vivendi continues to face pressure, primarily due to its heavy exposure to Universal Music Group (UMG), which accounts for approximately 65% of the company's net asset value. Over the quarter, UMG's share price fell 35%, largely driven by investor concerns over future growth amid rising AI-related risks in the music industry. Although UMG's fourth quarter 2025 results beat consensus expectations — supported by several one-off items — subscription revenue growth (which represents around 40% of total sales) continued to decelerate. Cash generation remained flat, weighed down by elevated artist advances and increased catalogue investments, both of which form part of capital expenditure and are linked to the company's emerging markets growth strategy. These elevated investment levels are expected to persist into this year. We continue to regard UMG as a high-quality business that has de-rated from an elevated valuation. What we find particularly attractive now is the opportunity to gain exposure to the company at an even steeper discount through Vivendi. |
| UMG.AS | Universal Music Group, performed poorly during the quarter with its 18% holding ending the first quarter valued at roughly €5.6 billion. We mentioned above some AI fears rocking parts of the market and we believe UMG's 25% sell off during the quarter might partly be explained by this. Following the quarter, Pershing Square introduced a proposal that was largely financial-engineering in nature rather than operational — but it nevertheless highlighted the depth of UMG's undervaluation. |
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