| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Pantera Capital views 2025 as a challenging but foundational year for crypto markets, characterized by macro-driven volatility rather than fundamental performance. Bitcoin declined 6% while broader tokens fell 60%, with the non-bitcoin market in a bear market since December 2024. Key headwinds included value accrual challenges, slowing on-chain activity, and speculative capital rotation to other sectors. However, institutional adoption continues broadening with enterprises integrating blockchain and sovereigns establishing reserves. Product-market fit is emerging in stablecoins and prediction markets. The macro backdrop remains supportive with a resilient U.S. economy and improving liquidity conditions. With sentiment washed out, leverage reduced, and significant repricing complete, forward-looking setups appear increasingly asymmetric. Pantera expects 2026 to be driven by consolidation, compliance, and institutional adoption rather than speculation, with only one or two players dominating each major asset class while others get acquired or left behind.
Crypto markets are transitioning from speculation-driven to institutionally-driven with improving fundamentals despite near-term headwinds.
Constructively optimistic despite 2025 challenges. Forward-looking setups appear increasingly asymmetric with sentiment washed out, leverage reduced, and significant repricing behind us. 2026 expected to be driven by consolidation, compliance, and institutional adoption rather than speculation.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 3662.T, COIN, HOOD, JPM | AI, Bitcoin, Blockchain, crypto, ETFs, Institutional, Prediction Markets | - | 2025 was dominated by macro, positioning, and flows rather than fundamentals for crypto markets. Bitcoin finished down 6%, Ethereum down 11%, while broader tokens declined… |
| Oct 10 2025 | 2025 Q3 | HSDT | Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, Cryptocurrency, IPO, Solana | HSDT US | Pantera Capital emphasizes the hybrid blockchain investment structure combining venture and hedge strategies, driving significant gains in Solana and token investments. It sees regulatory clarity,… |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | Bitcoin, Blockchain, crypto, institutional adoption, Stablecoins | - | The letter frames digital assets as a structural, long-term shift in the global financial system driven by regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and the separation of… |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 13 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 22 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 23 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| May 23 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 16 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 31 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Aug 22 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 20 2023 | 2023 Q1 | WWAC | - | - | - |
| Feb 2 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
CryptoFund focuses exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation through disciplined cycle-aware positioning. Manager shifted to defensive posture in Q3 anticipating correction, ending Q4 with two-thirds Bitcoin and one-third cash. Going forward, fund will hold only Bitcoin based on data showing altcoins have terrible odds with only 1-in-70 beating Bitcoin historically. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Cycles Accumulation Volatility | |
ETFsThe fund's strategy focuses on closed-end funds rather than ETFs, but operates in the broader fund ecosystem. They compare performance against closed-end fund indices and utilize various fund structures in their investment approach. |
Closed-End Funds Fund Discounts Fund Selection Alternative Structures | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
Blockchain |
||
CryptoFund focuses exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation through disciplined cycle-aware positioning. Manager shifted to defensive posture in Q3 anticipating correction, ending Q4 with two-thirds Bitcoin and one-third cash. Going forward, fund will hold only Bitcoin based on data showing altcoins have terrible odds with only 1-in-70 beating Bitcoin historically. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Cycles Accumulation Volatility | |
IPOs |
||
Solana |
||
| 2025 Q2 |
CryptoFund focuses exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation through disciplined cycle-aware positioning. Manager shifted to defensive posture in Q3 anticipating correction, ending Q4 with two-thirds Bitcoin and one-third cash. Going forward, fund will hold only Bitcoin based on data showing altcoins have terrible odds with only 1-in-70 beating Bitcoin historically. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Cycles Accumulation Volatility |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dan Morehead | HSDT US | Solana Company (formerly Helius Medical Technologies) | Financials | Blockchain Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | Blockchain, Crypto, Depin, Fintech, growth, infrastructure, Solana, Tokens | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 3662.T | Japan's Metaplanet is already aggressive, so the U.S. no longer owns the trend as the global treasury landscape diversifies |
| COIN | Coinbase (a new position) experienced extended volatility as crypto currency prices softened into December. We continued to build exposure to our financial deregulation and disintermediation of financial services theme through the purchase of Coinbase, to gain exposure to the regulated infrastructure of cryptocurrencies - particularly stablecoins - following the passage of the GENIUS Act by Congress. |
| HOOD | Robinhood Markets, Inc. is a digital brokerage platform serving retail investors. Shares detracted during the quarter following robust performance over the first nine months of the year. While overall activity levels remain strong, Robinhood experienced some softening in customer engagement in November, with cryptocurrency trading volumes in particular declining on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. |
| JPM | JPMorgan (JPM) has identified 42 AI-related stocks in the S&P 500, which today represent 45% of the index's market cap. They estimate that these stocks have accounted for 78% of S&P 500 returns, 66% of earnings growth, and 71% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022. As it relates to the impact on the U.S. economy, JPM estimates tech sector capital spending contributed 40%-45% of U.S. GDP growth through the first 9 months of the year, up from less than 5% during the same period in 2023. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
