| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 10.8% | 4.9% | - |
PM Capital Australian Companies Fund returned 4.9% in Q2 2026, contributing to a strong full-year return of 26.8%. The quarter was dominated by three themes: persistent sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates, the AI infrastructure investment boom, and expansionary government policy complicating the RBA's path to lower rates. Key contributors included Challenger Limited, benefiting from APRA's revised capital framework, and Capstone Copper, which recovered 30% after operational issues resolved. European banking holdings delivered strong performance despite trading at less than 10x earnings with double-digit earnings growth. Irish homebuilders continued to benefit from structural housing under-supply. Detractors included Newmont Mining, down 11% as gold fell on inflation concerns, and Stanmore Resources, pressured by energy sector sentiment. The manager actively reduced copper exposure citing valuation concerns despite favorable fundamentals, and initiated a position in CSL at 10-11x earnings. The portfolio remains differentiated from the broader market, concentrated in undervalued businesses while avoiding areas most exposed to inflationary pressures. The manager expects valuation to determine long-term outcomes as today's extremes gradually normalize.
The portfolio is positioned to capitalize on significant valuation disparities across markets, with a focus on materially undervalued businesses that offer attractive long-term fundamentals, while actively managing exposure to areas where valuations have become extended or where persistent inflationary pressures pose risks.
The manager expects the years ahead to remain characterized by significant valuation disparities across markets. In that environment, valuation will continue to determine long-term investment outcomes, regardless of prevailing market narratives. While periods of market enthusiasm can persist longer than expected, they ultimately give way to fundamentals. The manager continues to favour businesses believed to be materially undervalued and remains confident the portfolio is well positioned as today's valuation extremes gradually normalize. Stock selection remains critical in a challenging domestic environment.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27 2026 | 2026 Q2 | 1928.HK, BHP.AX, CAPS.TO, CGF.AX, CSL.AX, HEINY, NEM, RPRX, SMR.AX | AI, Australia, Banking, commodities, Copper, European Banks, inflation, Valuations |
CGF.AX CSL.AX |
PM Capital Australian Companies Fund delivered 4.9% in Q2 2026, driven by European banks, Irish homebuilders, and a Capstone Copper recovery. The manager actively trimmed copper holdings on valuation concerns despite strong fundamentals, while initiating CSL at attractive multiples. Persistent inflation, AI investment boom parallels to the dot.com era, and government spending remain key risks. The portfolio targets materially undervalued businesses positioned for valuation normalization. |
| Apr 21 2026 | 2026 Q1 | BHP.AX, CGF.AX, CIP.AX, CXC.AX, NST.AX, ROYY, SMR.AX | Australia, Coal, commodities, Copper, energy, gold, Mining, REITs | - | PM Capital's Australian fund fell 1.6% in volatile March as rate hikes hit REITs and gold miners faced operational issues. Strong copper performance from BHP and coal gains from Stanmore offset weakness. Managers used market dislocation to add to beaten-down positions, viewing current valuations as attractive despite near-term headwinds. |
| Feb 10 2026 | 2025 Q4 | APO, BHP.AX, CGF.AX, CMCL.TO, FDV.AX, HEIA.AS, INGA.AS, NEM, NST.AX, RYAAY, SHL.DE, SMR.AX, WDS.AX | Australia, banks, commodities, Copper, financials, gold, Mining |
NEM US CSC AU SMR AU CGF AU FDV AU WDS AU |
PM Capital Australian Companies Fund delivered exceptional 28.9% annual returns driven by conviction positions in gold and copper amid supply constraints and monetary policy support. Challenger Limited's 57% annual gain reflected regulatory reform benefits. The fund actively managed risk, exiting Woodside while adding to Apollo and Siemens Healthineers. Managers expect continued outperformance from disciplined focus on mispriced commodities and financials opportunities. |
| Oct 20 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 1928.HK, 2282.HK, AIR.PA, ALD.AX, AZJ.AX, CNI.AX, COL.AX, CS.AX, CXBK.MC, EDV.AX, FCX, FDV.AX, GMEXICOB.MX, HSBA.L, LLOY.L, MRL.AX, MSCI, NEE, NEM, NST.AX, QUB.AX, TECK, WYNN | AI, commodities, Copper, European Banks, gold, Macau, Onshoring, value | - | PM Capital delivered exceptional quarterly performance through disciplined value investing and contrarian positioning in undervalued cyclical sectors. Strong results from copper and gold producers, European banks, and Macau gaming operators drove outperformance despite macro headwinds. The firm maintains differentiated positioning focused on valuation support while reducing exposure after realizing investment theses in several holdings. |
| Jul 23 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 2282.HK, AIB.I, BIRG.I, CABK.MC, CGF.AX, CRN.AX, CSTCF, DGE.L, EDV.AX, FCX, FDV.AX, GQG.AX, HEIA.AS, INGA.AS, LLOY.L, NEM, RI.PA, SAN.PA, SHEL.L, SIE.DE, SPEC.L, TECK, WYNN | commodities, Copper, European Banks, gaming, gold, Onshoring, Trade Policy |
LLOY.L CABK.MC INGA.AS BIRG.I SIE.DE FCX NEM |
PM Capital delivered 8.1% quarterly returns led by European banks and commodities. European banks trade at significant discounts despite improving fundamentals from rising infrastructure spending. Commodity holdings benefit from supply constraints and geopolitical tensions. The team increased exposure during April weakness and maintains conviction in long-term themes requiring patient capital. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Bubble Fears, Fed policy, Market Concentration, risk management, technology, valuation | - | Peak Asset Management navigates elevated market valuations and sector concentration through disciplined risk management. Despite S&P 500's strong 14.83% YTD return and 22.5x forward earnings multiple, manager finds comfort in widespread bubble fears from contrarian perspective. Fed rate cuts and continued earnings growth support markets while firm searches underperforming stocks for future opportunities. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | BRK-A, EMR, PG | AI, dividends, large cap, uncertainty, Valuations, value | - | Peak Asset Management maintains disciplined value investing approach despite challenging conditions. S&P 500 up 6% year-to-date but quality companies trade at premium valuations. Dividend-paying stocks remain core focus given historical outperformance. AI infrastructure investment and policy clarity support markets, but political uncertainty and elevated valuations create risks. Firm emphasizes patience and discipline while maintaining bond ladders for stability. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | diversification, tariffs, Trade Policy, uncertainty, volatility | - | Peak Asset Management navigated Q1 2025 trade policy volatility by maintaining disciplined asset allocation principles. Despite tariff-driven market swings and historically stretched valuations, the firm focuses on matching investments to client cash flow needs and maintaining conviction during uncertainty to capitalize on opportunities created by market dislocations. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AJG, AMD, BA, CR, NVDA, ORCL, TTAN, TYL | aerospace, AI, fixed income, healthcare, insurance, software, Valuations |
CR AJG TYL TTAN |
Sandhill navigates AI-driven market concentration by emphasizing diversification and finding value in overlooked sectors. Recent additions include aerospace supplier Crane, insurance broker Gallagher, and software companies Tyler Technologies and ServiceTitan. Despite S&P 500 at 23x forward earnings, manager sees opportunities where sentiment has turned overly pessimistic while maintaining quality focus. |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | active management, Cash Management, fixed income, Quality, Valuations, volatility | - | Sandhill successfully navigated extreme market volatility by deploying cash during a 20% correction followed by a swift 25% recovery. Their quality-focused active management approach emphasizes businesses with strong fundamentals and secular growth exposure. With valuations now elevated at 22.2x forward earnings, they've trimmed positions and raised cash while remaining cautious on inflation and tariff uncertainties ahead. |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | ANET, JPM, TT | banks, Bonds, HVAC, Quality, tariffs, technology, value |
JPM ANET 1102 TT |
Sandhill deploys cash during tariff-driven market volatility, rotating into quality names like JPM, ANET, and TT. Focus on low-leverage companies with strong balance sheets positioned to gain market share during uncertainty. S&P 500 valuations compressed from 22x to 18x P/E, creating opportunities. Historical precedent suggests significant upside following rare two-day market declines. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | diversification, Recession, Stagflation, tariffs, Trade Policy, volatility | - | Trade policy uncertainty drove significant Q1 volatility with the S&P 500 down 4.8%, but diversified portfolios held up better. Tariff implementation exceeded expectations, raising recession risks to 50%. Lexington maintains their balanced approach is built for uncertainty and recommends staying the course rather than market timing, while conducting tactical rebalancing and tax-loss harvesting. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN, AVGO, GOOGL, INTC, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, TSLA | AI, China, gold, Mining, rates, tariffs, technology | - | AI infrastructure boom drives technology leadership with Nvidia delivering extraordinary results and announcing major partnerships. Fed cuts rates despite political pressure while elevated valuations above Dot-Com levels warrant caution. Positioning favors ex-US opportunities and precious metals as portfolio insurance against fiscal risks. Chinese internet trades at steep discounts while corporate earnings inflect upward. |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, VOW3.DE | AI, Buybacks, gold, infrastructure, Japan, technology, Trump, US | - | TEAM capitalized on Trump-driven US market euphoria through concentrated Magnificent 7 technology exposure, delivering strong Q4 returns. Manager maintains barbell strategy with US mega-cap growth as core, benefiting from American exceptionalism theme and dollar strength. Enters 2025 overweight equities despite Fed hawkishness and European political instability, relying on systematic process for continued outperformance. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
CopperCopper holdings reached new all-time highs during the quarter, driven by ongoing strength in copper prices. The manager actively reduced exposure through outright sales and sold call options, citing valuation concerns despite favorable long-term fundamentals. COMEX copper prices have nearly doubled from 2020 lows, while holdings like Freeport McMoRan and Teck Resources are up 10x and 8x respectively. |
Copper Freeport McMoRan Teck Resources Grupo Mexico Capstone Copper |
BankingEuropean banking stocks delivered strong performance, staging a robust recovery from the March sell-off. The manager highlights that European banks continue to deliver superior profitability, maintain pristine balance sheets, and return excess capital to shareholders, yet trade at less than 10x earnings while generating robust double-digit earnings growth. Domestically, inflation and RBA rate hikes have weighed on consumer sentiment and credit growth, pressuring major bank earnings. |
European Banking ING Groep Challenger Limited Interest Rates | |
GoldNewmont Mining declined 11-14% over the quarter, tracking a 14% decline in the physical gold price. Stickier-than-expected US inflation shifted market expectations towards further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, while the stronger US Dollar Index and higher Treasury yields reduced the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset. |
Gold Newmont Mining Inflation Federal Reserve | |
InflationPersistent 'sticky' inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates became more apparent during the quarter, marking a significant shift after four decades of generally falling bond yields. Domestically, inflation remained stubbornly elevated, prompting the RBA to raise the cash rate to 4.35%, its third increase of 2026. This environment has weighed materially on consumer sentiment, dampening household spending and constraining credit growth. |
Inflation Interest Rates RBA Consumer Sentiment | |
AIThe investment boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure was a defining theme in the quarter, supporting economic growth expectations, corporate investment, and equity market returns. The manager draws parallels to the late 1990s TMT boom and dot.com crash, noting that while transformative technologies can create enormous economic value, investment returns ultimately depend on the price paid. A sharp decline in AI-related valuations remains a risk being closely monitored. |
AI Technology Valuations Investment Boom | |
HomebuildersIrish homebuilders Cairn Homes and Glenveagh Properties delivered strong performance during the quarter. The investment thesis continues to play out with a combination of deep structural under-supply of new housing, highly supportive government policy, and excellent operational execution by both management teams, resulting in substantial shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. |
Homebuilders Ireland Housing Supply Dividends | |
CasinosMacau positions Sands China and MGM China detracted from performance over the quarter. The manager views the recent weakness as cyclical, with the expanded FIFA World Cup diverting discretionary spending and tourist attention rather than signalling a structural slowdown. Despite trading near the bottom of their long-term valuation ranges and offering healthy dividend yields, these businesses have struggled to attract investor attention in a market increasingly focused on AI. |
Casinos Macau Sands China MGM China Tourism | |
BiotechnologyRoyalty Pharma was up 17% during the quarter, supported by positive clinical trial results for two important pipeline medicines in oncology and cardiovascular. The manager initiated a small position in CSL, noting the business is going through a period of reset with growth plans and cost base needing to be resized. CSL is viewed as trading at 10-11x earnings, which does not appropriately reflect a business with high barriers to entry and growing demand. |
Biotechnology Royalty Pharma CSL Oncology Cardiovascular | |
| 2026 Q1 |
CopperFund benefited from strategic overweight position in copper with Freeport-McMoRan and Grupo México rising 16% and 13% respectively. Copper reached all-time high of $6.50/lb driven by structural supply deficits and accelerating demand for energy transition infrastructure. BHP's copper now generates over half of group earnings. |
Copper Energy Transition Supply Deficits Mining Infrastructure |
GoldNorthern Star Resources fell 24% following second production guidance downgrade for FY26 due to operational headwinds at KCGM Super Pit and Jundee operation. Gold prices retreated from January peak of $5,420/oz to low of $4,356/oz. Manager used weakness to add to position viewing production issues as temporary. |
Gold Mining Production Operational Issues Volatility | |
CoalStanmore Resources up 23% during quarter despite low steelmaking coal prices. Company navigated well with good management of production volumes and costs, maintaining positive free cash flow. Declared dividend of 5% well ahead of market expectations. Steelmaking coal prices rebounded from lows with Middle East events providing indirect support. |
Coal Steelmaking Free Cash Flow Dividends Production | |
Real EstateCenturia Industrial REIT declined 13% as higher interest rates and broader economic concerns weighed on share price. Higher yields seen as negative for REIT valuations as spread becomes less attractive. Manager believes urban infill industrial portfolio is high quality and difficult to replicate, used weakness to increase position. |
REITs Industrial Interest Rates Valuations Infrastructure | |
| 2025 Q4 |
GoldGold rose 12% over the quarter, reaching a record high in December. Monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty continued to provide a positive backdrop for gold. Portfolio holdings Newmont gained 18% and Northern Star Resources gained 13%. |
Gold Monetary Policy Geopolitical |
CopperCopper surged 17% as supply risks came back into focus following production disruptions and material downgrades to production guidance due to geotechnical issues at several large-scale mines. The fund maintains significant overweight positioning in copper given the impending supply shortfall. |
Copper Supply Mining | |
BankingChallenger Limited remained a standout on the back of regulatory reforms and interest rate normalization, achieving a 57% return for the year. The fund's conviction is predicated on normalisation of interest rates, structural growth of retirement income and emergence of regulatory tailwinds. |
Banking Interest Rates Regulation | |
CoalIn steelmaking coal, Stanmore Resources remains resilient despite low commodity prices. Stanmore has maintained consistent mine plans and capital expenditure programs and is well positioned to benefit from any improvement in commodity prices. |
Coal Steelmaking Mining | |
| 2025 Q3 |
CopperPortfolio heavily weighted towards copper producers including Teck Resources, Freeport-McMoRan, and Grupo Mexico. Copper prices rose 5% in September following major accident at Freeport's Grasberg mine, shifting market expectations from surplus to deficit heading into 2026. Several high-profile supply issues this year have supported copper outlook. |
Copper Miners Supply Disruption Grasberg Deficit Industrial Metals |
GoldGold positions benefited from 17% rise in gold price to all-time high of US$3,873. Newmont gained 45% over the period while Northern Star rallied 26% since purchase. Despite gold trading at record levels, investor ownership of gold equities remains low with valuations still attractive and capital returns competitive. |
Gold Miners Record Highs Undervalued Capital Returns Low Ownership | |
European BanksEuropean bank positions delivered strong results with steeper yield curve and growing confidence in increased infrastructure and defence spending driving economic activity. Caixabank rose 22% yet still trades below 11 times earnings, with plans for €12bn of shareholder returns over 2025-27 equivalent to roughly 20% of market capitalisation. |
Yield Curve Infrastructure Spending Defense Spending Shareholder Returns Undervalued | |
MacauImproved visitation in Macau supported portfolio returns with Wynn Resorts, Sands China and MGM China all up more than 30% including dividends. Industry-wide entertainment and leisure revenue growth has accelerated through the year, driving renewed investor optimism following period of weak sentiment earlier in 2025. |
Gaming Recovery Revenue Growth Visitation China | |
AIMarkets increasingly driven by megatrends including the AI investment cycle, highlighted by partnerships among OpenAI, Nvidia and Oracle. However, discussions of these themes rarely address valuation or return on invested capital, which the manager views as cautionary. |
Investment Cycle Partnerships Valuation Concerns Return On Capital Megatrends | |
OnshoringUS reshoring and infrastructure investment identified as key themes supporting market strength. The surge in US reshoring and infrastructure investment represents one of the megatrends driving market narratives, though valuation considerations are often overlooked in these discussions. |
Infrastructure Investment Megatrends Market Narratives US Investment Themes | |
| 2025 Q2 |
European UnionEuropean banks are significantly undervalued relative to US and Australian peers. Rising infrastructure and defence spending in Europe will stimulate industrial activity and credit demand. European banks trade on significantly lower valuation multiples than their US and Australian peers. |
Banking Valuation Infrastructure Defence Credit |
CommoditiesUnderinvestment in resource projects will constrain commodity supply, supporting higher metal prices. President Trump is using commodities as bargaining chips for trade concessions. These artificial barriers to commodity supply coincide with decades of global underinvestment in resource projects. |
Supply Metals Trade Copper Gold | |
OnshoringThe COVID-19 pandemic encouraged multinationals to increase manufacturing at home to reduce global supply chain risks. President Trump wants more manufacturing to return to the US and his use of tariffs could accelerate global reshoring. |
Manufacturing Supply Chain Tariffs Automation | |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump believes the world over-relies on Chinese manufacturing and wants more manufacturing to return to the US. His stop-start tariff war and trade policies are prompting global investors to reassess their exposure. |
Tariffs China Manufacturing Decoupling | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Risk AppetiteManager discusses the psychology of market bubbles and contrarian investing, noting that widespread bubble fears may actually indicate the market is not in a bubble. Emphasizes that successful investing is about managing risks over time rather than timing market tops and bottoms. |
Contrarian Bubble Psychology Risk Management |
| 2024 Q4 |
DividendsManager emphasizes the importance of dividend-paying stocks, noting that over the last 50 years dividend payers in the S&P 500 returned 9.2% annually versus 4.3% for non-payers. Companies that pay dividends demonstrate consistent profitability and judicious cash management. |
Dividend Yield Cash Management Profitability Income Distribution |
ValueThe manager follows a value investing approach, seeking great businesses at reasonable prices. However, they note difficulty finding opportunities as solid companies like Procter & Gamble trade at premium P/E ratios of 24x despite 5-7% growth rates. The last reasonable valuations were during the Great Recession. |
P/E Ratio Intrinsic Value Discount Valuation Growth Rate | |
AIArtificial intelligence is identified as one of the key drivers supporting current market valuations. The manager notes huge amounts of corporate investment in building data centers and research and development in AI as a countervailing force keeping markets fully valued. |
Data Centers R&D Corporate Investment Technology Infrastructure | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Trade PolicyThe Trump administration implemented tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China on February 1st as pressure to stop Fentanyl flow. Liberation Day on April 2nd brought increased tariff size and breadth, spoking investors and causing market volatility. A ninety day pause on reciprocal tariffs for seventy plus countries was announced April 9th. |
Tariffs Trade War China Policy Uncertainty |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIAI capital expenditure boom continues driving market concentration with eight companies representing 38% of S&P 500. Manager questions sustainability of $3-4 trillion annual data center spending projections by 2030, citing economic viability and energy infrastructure as key risks. |
Data Centers Semiconductors Cloud Energy Valuations |
SoftwareManager sees opportunity in software sector where sentiment has turned overly pessimistic amid AI displacement fears. Added to Tyler Technologies and initiated ServiceTitan position, viewing AI as enhancement rather than threat for specialized software companies. |
SaaS Vertical Software Municipal Software Trades Software AI Integration | |
AerospaceBoeing increasing near-term production schedule with massive backlog for both Boeing and Airbus aircraft. Added to Crane position to benefit from long-term secular aerospace growth trend through its aerospace division. |
Commercial Aviation Defense Industrial Backlog Production | |
Insurance BrokersInitiated position in Arthur J. Gallagher, a best-in-class insurance broker consolidating the mid-market space. Company's largest acquisition to date expected to drive earnings growth exceeding 20% next year. |
Consolidation Mid Market M&A Earnings Growth Brokers | |
| 2024 Q1 |
QualityManager emphasizes owning quality assets with strong management teams, low debt levels, healthy cash flows, and exposure to long-term secular growth trends. These companies tend to outperform over time and press their advantage during economic downturns. |
Quality Cash Flows Management Growth |
VolatilityThe letter highlights significant market volatility with a 20% correction followed by a 25% rebound, marking the second-fastest recovery from bear market low to new high in 75 years. Manager views volatility as opportunity for active management. |
Volatility Bear Market Correction Rebound | |
| 2023 Q4 |
Trade PolicyNewly announced U.S. tariffs on the rest of the world are creating market instability and uncertainty. These tariffs will increase costs to corporations and consumers, dampen demand, and push the global economy toward recession if they remain in place. |
Tariffs Trade Policy Uncertainty Recession |
Data CentersArista Networks is benefiting from continued growth due to acceleration in AI-related data center spend. The company has been taking share in its core markets for years as a leading provider of data center networking and switching equipment. |
AI Networking Infrastructure Growth | |
HVACTrane Technologies operates in the HVAC industry which continues to benefit from long-term structural demand driven by rising global temperatures, improved indoor air quality standards, and a growing push for energy efficiency. |
Climate Efficiency Infrastructure Structural | |
| 2023 Q3 |
Trade PolicyThe administration's trade policies and tariff implementation created significant market uncertainty. The scope of Liberation Day tariffs was a negative surprise, moving beyond targeted reciprocal tariffs to across-the-board levies on all countries running trade deficits with the US. This carpet bombing approach suggests goals beyond rebalancing asymmetric tariffs. |
Tariffs Trade War Stagflation Recession Policy |
VolatilityMarkets experienced substantial volatility with the S&P 500 dropping 4.8% in Q1 and retreating 13.5% year-to-date by April 7th. The Mag 7 stocks declined 9.5% while international stocks and bonds provided diversification benefits. Gold surged 19% on political and trade policy concerns. |
Market Decline Diversification Gold Uncertainty Risk | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIAI fever has gripped markets with the Magnificent 7 recapturing leadership. Nvidia delivered extraordinary results with $47 billion revenue and announced major investments in Intel and OpenAI partnerships. The AI capex mania has added $15 trillion to S&P 500 market cap since April, with AI-related companies driving 75% of index returns and 90% of capex growth. |
Nvidia Capex Infrastructure Chips Data Centers |
GoldPhysical gold touched new all-time highs with central banks acting as marginal buyers, accumulating over 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022. ETF inflows surged to 420 tonnes in first nine months of 2025. Gold serves as essential portfolio insurance against dollar debasement, with the metal maintaining purchasing power for nearly 100 years. |
Central Banks ETF Inflows Dollar Debasement Portfolio Insurance Purchasing Power | |
SilverSilver returned over 30% in the quarter with chronic supply deficits expected for the next 5 years. Increasing industrial demand from data centers for AI applications, EVs, and solar sectors drives structural demand. Physical silver was introduced to complement gold exposure for long-term portfolio benefits. |
Supply Deficit Industrial Demand Data Centers EVs Solar | |
ChinaChinese equities broke out to decade-plus highs with the Shanghai Index returning 15.7%. Chinese internet companies trade at substantial discounts to American counterparts while corporate earnings continue inflecting upwards. China's growing competitiveness in high-tech sectors including robots and automation is underappreciated by markets. |
Internet Valuation Discount Earnings Growth High-tech Automation | |
RatesFederal Reserve delivered a 25 basis point rate cut described as risk management to forestall labor market weakness. Money markets price two additional cuts this year despite upside inflation risks from tariffs. The decision was nearly unanimous with only Trump ally Stephen Miran dissenting for larger cuts. |
Fed Cut Labor Market Inflation Risk Tariffs Monetary Policy | |
| 2023 Q1 |
AIManager emphasizes AI as a key driver of American productivity surge and mega-cap technology outperformance. Notes that companies are making good on impressive revenue and margin growth from AI investments, though acknowledges a meaningful consumer application is still needed to justify extraordinary semiconductor chip investments. |
Artificial Intelligence Productivity Technology Semiconductors Revenue Growth |
Infrastructure SpendingUS infrastructure receives C- grade from American Society of Civil Engineers, highlighting chronic need for major investment. Manager notes effective infrastructure investment is one of the most productive uses of government spending, with markets anticipating Trump administration will provide large earnings visibility window for exposed companies. |
Infrastructure Government Spending Investment Gap Earnings Visibility Trump Administration | |
GoldPhysical gold serves as essential portfolio insurance against long-term dollar debasement. Record central bank buying since Q3 2022, with 2024 being only year on record where gold rallied over 25% while US dollar also rose over 5%. Manager views this behavior as extremely healthy for the asset class. |
Portfolio Insurance Central Bank Buying Dollar Debasement Haven Assets Currency | |
BuybacksJapan's corporate governance revolution driving record share buybacks, rising to ¥15 trillion this fiscal year compared to ¥8 trillion last year. Tokyo Stock Exchange reform agenda holding management teams accountable, with investors looking forward to enhanced returns from rising dividends and improved return on equity. |
Corporate Governance Japan Tokyo Stock Exchange Return on Equity Management Accountability |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | - | Capstone Copper | Specialty Chemicals | Copper | Bull | Australian Securities Exchange | Chile, Commodities, Copper, Cyclical, Labor disputes, materials, Mining, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | CGF.AX | Challenger Limited | Insurance - Life | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | Australian Securities Exchange | Annuities, asset management, Australia, demographic trends, financials, market leader, Regulatory Tailwind, retirement income | Login |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | CSL.AX | CSL Limited | Biotechnology | Biotechnology | Bull | Australian Securities Exchange | Australia, biotechnology, healthcare, leadership transition, M&A Integration, Plasma Therapies, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Fund Letters | Paul Moore | NEM US | Newmont Corporation | Materials | Gold | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Commodities, Geopolitics, Gold, inflation, Interestrates | Login |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Fund Letters | Paul Moore | CSC AU | Capstone Copper Corp. | Materials | Copper | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Commodities, Copper, Inventories, Mining, Supply Shortage | Login |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Fund Letters | Paul Moore | SMR AU | Stanmore Resources Limited | Materials | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | capital discipline, coal, Commodities, Cyclicality, resilience | Login |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Fund Letters | Paul Moore | CGF AU | Challenger Limited | Financials | Life & Health Insurance | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Annuities, Demographics, Interestrates, Regulation, rerating | Login |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Fund Letters | Paul Moore | FDV AU | Frontier Digital Ventures Limited | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | cashflow, Classifieds, emergingmarkets, restructuring | Login |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Fund Letters | Paul Moore | WDS AU | Woodside Energy Group Ltd | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | arbitrage, commodity risk, energy, Gas, LNG | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | CR | Crane Company | Industrials | Industrial Machinery | Bull | NYSE | Aerospace, Airbus, Aircraft Manufacturing, Boeing, Industrial technology, Production Ramp, secular growth | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | AJG | Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | Financials | Insurance Brokers | Bull | NYSE | acquisition, consolidation, earnings growth, Insurance Broker, Mid-market, Roll-up Strategy | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | TYL | Tyler Technologies Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NYSE | Defensive Software, Fragmented Market, government software, high switching costs, Local Government, Mission-Critical, Municipal Technology | Login |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | TTAN | ServiceTitan Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI integration, Electricians, first-mover advantage, HVAC, Modernization, Plumbers, Productivity Gains, Professionalization, Trades Industry | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | LLOY.L | Lloyds Banking Group | Financials | Banks | Bull | London Stock Exchange | banking, Equity, Europe, European banks, financials, low valuation, United Kingdom, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | CABK.MC | CaixaBank | Financials | Banks | Bull | Madrid Stock Exchange | banking, Equity, Europe, European banks, financials, low valuation, Spain, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | INGA.AS | ING Groep | Financials | Banks | Bull | Euronext Amsterdam | banking, Equity, Europe, European banks, financials, low valuation, Netherlands, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | BIRG.I | Bank of Ireland | Financials | Banks | Bull | Irish Stock Exchange | banking, Equity, Europe, European banks, financials, Ireland, low valuation, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | SIE.DE | Siemens AG | Industrials | Industrial Conglomerates | Bull | Frankfurt Stock Exchange | Automation, Equity, Europe, Germany, Industrials, manufacturing, Reshoring, technology | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | Materials | Copper | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Commodities, Copper, Electric Vehicles, Equity, materials, Mining, renewables, US | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | NEM | Newmont Corporation | Materials | Gold | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | central banks, Commodities, Equity, geopolitical, Gold, materials, Mining, Safe Haven | Login |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | JPM | J.P. Morgan | Financials | Banks | Bull | NYSE | Bank, defensive, financial services, large-cap, Quality, Value, yield | Login |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | ANET | Arista Networks | Information Technology | Communications Equipment | Bull | NYSE | AI, Cloud computing, data center, growth, infrastructure, Networking, technology | Login |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | PM Capital Australian Companies Fund | 1102 TT | Trane Technologies | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NYSE | Building Products, Climate, Commercial, energy efficiency, HVAC, Industrial, Sustainability | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CGF.AX | Challenger Limited delivered strong performance over the quarter. We see the company as uniquely positioned, as the undisputed leader in the Australian annuity market, to capture the benefits of APRA's revised capital framework. The transition towards a more efficient capital model, coupled with secular tailwinds driving increased domestic demand for guaranteed retirement solutions, remains central to our investment thesis. |
| CAPS.TO | Capstone Copper contributed positively to performance after shares rose almost 30% over the period. Regular readers of our commentary will note that we increased our position during March after its share price fell around 45% from peak to trough in the first quarter – in response to the sharp fall in the copper price corresponding with the US-Iran conflict as well as operational issues at its flagship Mantoverde mine in Chile where production was disrupted by labour strikes. Capstone's share price has largely recovered with the rebound in copper prices with COMEX improving to close the quarter above $6/lb. Importantly, labour issues at Mantoverde have also been resolved and operations have returned to normal. Following the move higher, we took the opportunity to trim the position late in the quarter. |
| BHP.AX | BHP Group shares rose 18% for the June quarter, hitting an all-time high early June before consolidating. The rally was underpinned by the copper strength, supported by iron ore prices remaining relatively steady around US$100–105/t despite Middle East tensions, providing a stable earnings base. The re-rating reflects the market crediting BHP's reduced iron-ore dependence and copper optionality, though softer Chinese steel output remains a lingering risk. |
| NEM | The local listing for Newmont Mining declined -11% over the quarter, tracking a 14% decline in the physical gold price. Stickier-than-expected US inflation shifted market expectations towards further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The stronger US Dollar Index and higher Treasury yields reduced the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset, weighing on Newmont's share price. |
| SMR.AX | Steelmaking coal miner Stanmore Resources reported solid first quarter production volumes and had an otherwise uneventful quarter operationally. Despite this, the share price declined -15%, driven by weaker sentiment towards energy-related stocks following developments in the Middle East and Anglo American's sale of its Queensland coal assets. (a potential acquisition for Stanmore that was ultimately acquired by an alternate suitor). |
| RPRX | Royalty Pharma was up 17% supported by the positive clinical trial results for two important pipeline medicines in oncology and cardiovascular. |
| HEINY | Heineken rose 9% after the company appointed Rafael Oliveira as the new Chief Executive Officer and Chair of the Executive Committee. Oliveira marks the first external candidate to be appointed CEO at Heineken in its history, and his appointment has been viewed positively by shareholders. |
| 1928.HK | Amongst our international holdings Sands China detracted as investors reacted to a slowdown in activity. We view this as a cyclical slowdown as the expanded FIFA World Cup drew discretionary spending and tourist attention, rather than a structural slowdown. |
| CSL.AX | During the quarter the Fund initiated a small position in CSL. The business is currently going through a period of reset. Growth plans and the cost base need to be resized, commercial execution sharpened and a permanent Chief Executive Officer appointed. Vifor, the Swiss pharmaceutical company CSL acquired in 2022, faces various challenges and its business might deteriorate faster than expected. The investment case is also evolving. Plasma therapies businesses more generally have elements of both a capital-intensive industrial producing a largely undifferentiated product (immunoglobulin), and a therapeutics business at the leading edge of science. The direction set by the new Chief Executive and, in time, a new Board Chair will be important in determining the company's long-term strategy. CSL, as a stock, is also going through the reset in the minds of the Australian investment community. We do not expect CSL to ever recover the 40-times plus earnings multiple it garnered at its heights in 2020 & 2021. Equally, we do not believe a valuation of 10- or 11- times earnings appropriately reflects a business with high barriers to entry and a product for which there is growing demand. |
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