| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 37.1% | 0.2% | 12.4% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.4% | -10.6% | 26.5% | 12.0% | 142.9% | 129.5% |
Praetorian Capital returned 0.21% net in Q4 2025 and 12.39% for the full year, though the manager describes the past two years as embarrassing and the worst stretch in many years. After struggling with real economy investments in a world focused on propping up asset bubbles rather than economic growth, the fund dramatically repositioned following Trump's Liberation Day. The new portfolio targets companies that benefit from bubble dynamics rather than requiring GDP growth. Key themes include Emerging Markets positioned for Dollar weakness as MAGA policies require weak Dollar policies, precious metals beneficiaries in an inflationary environment with central bank credibility loss, refiners positioned for energy demand recovery, and market intermediaries serving increasingly financialized markets. The fund also owns Florida Panhandle real estate through St. Joe, positioned for wealthy migration from chaotic cities. At 101.4% long exposure, the manager feels confident about the repositioning and expects to benefit from inevitable liquidity injections, though acknowledging crash risk exists.
The fund has repositioned away from struggling real economy businesses toward companies that benefit from asset bubble dynamics, including market intermediaries, precious metals beneficiaries, Emerging Markets positioned for Dollar weakness, and Florida real estate exposed to wealthy migration patterns.
The manager feels increasingly confident that the forced sojourn from the market was the right decision and expects the fund to benefit from endless liquidity pulses. While expecting a crash, he feels some safety given how far their names are from the nexus of current bubbles in tech, Private Equity, Private Credit, CRE, and VC. The tone is cautiously optimistic about the repositioned portfolio.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3 2026 | 2025 Q4 | JOE, MRX | Capital markets, Dollar, emerging markets, inflation, Precious Metals, real estate, Refiners, value |
JOE MRX |
For the past decade, Emerging Markets have been in a relative bear market but have gotten quite cheap from a valuation perspective. The catalyst for… |
| Oct 23 2025 | 2025 Q3 | JOE | emerging markets, gold, inflation, Macro, Treasuries |
JOE JOE |
Praetorian cautions that global capital destruction and AI overinvestment signal a speculative bubble nearing exhaustion. The manager favors real assets and croupier exposures like exchanges,… |
| Aug 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | JOE | asymmetry, Capital Allocation, catalysts, Restructuring, special situations | JOE | The letter focuses on special situations and idiosyncratic opportunities where corporate actions, restructuring, or capital allocation drive returns. Management highlights asymmetry created by complexity and… |
| Apr 24 2025 | 2025 Q1 | JOE | - | - | - |
| Jan 12 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AMRK, JOE, SII, TDW, VAL | - | - | - |
| Oct 20 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AMRK, JOE, SII, TDW, U-U CN, VAL | - | - | - |
| Jul 21 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AMRK, JOE, NVDA, SII, TDW, VAL | - | - | - |
| May 8 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AMRK, JOE, U-U CN | - | - | - |
| May 1 2024 | 2023 Q4 | JOE, U-U CN | - | - | - |
| May 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | JOE, U-U CN | - | - | - |
| May 7 2023 | 2023 Q2 | BNO, JOE, U-U CN | - | - | - |
| May 4 2023 | 2023 Q1 | JOE | - | - | - |
| May 1 2023 | 2022 Q4 | JOE, KAP LI, U-U CN | - | - | - |
| May 10 2022 | 2022 Q3 | BLDR, JOE | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
Capital MarketsThe IPO market continued to thaw into year-end, reinforcing that capital formation is re-accelerating after a multi-year slowdown. This backdrop remains supportive for SPAC issuance and transaction activity. The manager believes SPACs only work in a healthy capital markets backdrop with strong performance from IPOs, direct listings, and M&A. |
IPO market Capital formation Direct listings M&A activity Market reopening |
Emerging MarketsEM exposure increased to roughly 30% of the portfolio, the largest weight ever, driven by compressed valuations and opportunities in companies like CATL, Delta Electronics, Naver, and Tencent. The manager sees attractive risk-reward profiles in EM companies where fundamentals remain robust despite underperformance. |
China South Korea Taiwan Value Growth | |
Precious MetalsThe precious metals sector experienced dramatic outperformance in 2025, with the FTSE/JSE Precious Metals and Mining index more than tripling. This was the primary driver of South African equity market returns and the main reason for the Hedge Fund's underperformance relative to its benchmark. |
Platinum Mining South Africa Commodities | |
RefinersThe portfolio increased Valero and Phillips 66 on strong refinery dynamics. Marathon Petroleum had a rare refinery earnings miss on operational items believed to be one-time, with favorable 2026 capex guidance. |
Dynamics Earnings Operations Capex Performance | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldGold experienced its best annual return since 1979 driven by seemingly insatiable appetite, entering bubble territory. The precious metal drove the Small Resources index to a 45.3% increase in the December half. |
Gold Precious Metals Bubble Resources |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
| 2025 Q2 |
SpecialSituations |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman | JOE | The St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | NYSE | AFFO, Demographics, Housing, inflation hedge, Land value, migration, Real Estate | Login |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman | JOE | The St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | NYSE | AFFO, Demographics, Housing, inflation hedge, Land value, migration, Real Estate | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman | JOE | The St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Diversified Real Estate Activities | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AFFO, Florida Panhandle, inflation hedge, land bank, migration, Real Estate, Residential Development | Login |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Fund Letters | Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman | JOE | St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Operating Companies | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AFFO, inflation, land, migration, Rea lestate | Login |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Fund Letters | Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman | MRX | Marex Group plc | Financials | Investment Banking & Brokerage | Bull | NASDAQ | Brokerage, consolidation, Derivatives, Hedging, Volatility | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| JOE | JOE owns approximately 167,000 acres in the Florida Panhandle. It has been widely known that JOE traded for a tiny fraction of its liquidation value for years, but without a catalyst, it was always perceived to be dead money. Over the past few years, the population of the Panhandle has hit a critical mass where the Panhandle now has a center of gravity that is attracting people who want to live in one of the prettiest places in the country, with zero state income taxes and few of the problems of large cities. The oddity of the current disdain for so-called value investments is that many of them are growing quite fast. I believe that JOE may grow revenue at a rapid rate for the foreseeable future, with earnings growing at a much faster clip. Meanwhile, I believe the shares trade at an attractive multiple on Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO), while substantial asset value is tossed in for free. Besides the valuation, growth, and high Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of the business, why else do I like JOE? For starters, land tends to appreciate rapidly during periods of high inflation. More importantly, I believe we are witnessing a massive population migration as people with means choose to flee big cities for somewhere peaceful. I suspect that every convulsion of urban chaos and/or tax-the-rich scheming will launch JOE shares higher, and it will ultimately be seen as the way to play the stream of very wealthy refugees fleeing for somewhere better. |
| MRX | Marex is a Futures Commission Merchant which we have owned since its IPO in 2024. During Q4, the market briefly panicked about their perceived exposure to lower interest rates and lower exchange volumes. However, they continue to surprise the market with their resilience and their growth potential. We used the selloff buy more and Marex is now our largest position. We believe the company trades around 9x P/E which is low for a company with an increasing moat, a long runway for growth and an ROE close to 30%. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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| No industry data available | |||
