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| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
As of Oct 21, 2026
Praetorian Capital Fund LLC depreciated by 0.29% net of fees in the third quarter of 2026, bringing year-to-date net performance to 11.01%. Portfolio dynamics were characterized by sharp internal divergences: substantial gains from core energy refining holdings were offset by unrealized markdowns in post-secondary technical education holdings, while the event-driven strategy experienced a modest drag. In response to broad macroeconomic fragilities and rich overall valuations, the fund actively dialed down portfolio exposure, fully eliminated positions in oil refining and Brazilian equities, and accumulated dry powder in cash alongside short-term interest rate call spreads and SOFR futures. The manager maintains an intensely cautious macroeconomic framework, asserting that the broader domestic economy outside of artificial intelligence capital expenditures, wealth effect spending, and boomer healthcare has already slipped into a quiet recession. Kupperman diagnoses the multi-year AI capital investment cycle as a colossal capital misallocation that faces imminent rationalization, predicting that high costs of capital and nonexistent operating profitability will catalyze widespread bankruptcies across private AI labs and specialized clouds, ultimately pulling down broad equity indices and triggering aggressive monetary intervention. Portfolio activity centered on aggressive repositioning ahead of expected market dislocations. The fund liquidated its multi-year positions in Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) near replacement value and fully exited Brazilian holdings prior to elections. Conversely, the manager capitalized on temporary algorithmic selling to aggressively expand holdings in trade schools Lincoln Educational Services (LINC) and Universal Technical Institute (UTI) to roughly 20% of the portfolio, while retaining long-term real estate exposure in St. Joe (JOE).
Focus on high-conviction, asymmetric inflection opportunities by exploiting the market's hyper-short investment horizon to buy structurally advantaged assets at steep discounts to normalized multi-year earnings power.
The manager anticipates a severe decline in equity markets as the AI capital spending bubble deflates and cascades across the broader economy. Praetorian intends to maintain reduced exposure and hold sovereign interest rate derivatives alongside cash until deep dislocations allow capital redeployment at distressed valuations.
High Conviction Bullish
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