| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 16.44% | 16.44% |
Praetorian Capital returned 16.44% net in Q1 2026, driven by core portfolio positions and a small gain from the Event-Driven book. Manager Harris Kupperman has rebuilt the portfolio around his Economic Feudalism theory, positioning for an inflationary, multipolar world. The fund is long inflation beneficiaries, volatility, trading volumes, and disruption, with particular exposure to refiners that have dramatically over-earned since the Hormuz war began. Key positions include Emerging Markets benefiting from potential US Dollar weakness under MAGA policies, precious metals as inflation hedges, refiners positioned for supply bottlenecks, and Marex as a structural beneficiary of elevated commodity volatility. The manager trimmed some Event-Driven positions for dry powder while maintaining core exposures. Despite strong Q1 performance, he anticipates keeping equity exposures lower than normal until clarity emerges on Hormuz and other macro risks, expecting a potential smash before hitting escape velocity with Project Zimbabwe.
The fund is positioned for an inflationary, multipolar world with elevated volatility, focusing on asymmetric opportunities in emerging markets, commodities trading, refiners, and precious metals that benefit from US Dollar weakness and structural market disruptions.
Manager expects the fund to hit escape velocity with Project Zimbabwe but anticipates a smash first, hence keeping equity exposures lower than normal. He is excited about upcoming earnings season as many companies have observable indicators foreshadowing blow-out results, and believes the portfolio is in the sweet spot for the first time in a while.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22 2026 | 2026 Q1 | JOE, MRX | commodities, emerging markets, geopolitics, inflation, Refiners, trading, volatility |
MRX JOE |
Praetorian returned 16.44% in Q1 2026, positioned for an inflationary multipolar world with elevated volatility. Core holdings in emerging markets, refiners, precious metals, and commodities trading benefit from Dollar weakness and structural disruptions. Manager maintains cautious positioning despite strong performance, awaiting clarity on Hormuz situation before increasing exposures. |
| Feb 3 2026 | 2025 Q4 | JOE, MRX | Capital markets, Dollar, emerging markets, inflation, Precious Metals, real estate, Refiners, value |
JOE MRX |
Praetorian repositioned away from struggling real economy stocks toward bubble beneficiaries after recognizing policymakers prioritize asset values over growth. The fund now targets Emerging Markets for Dollar weakness, precious metals for inflation, refiners for energy recovery, market intermediaries for financialization trends, and Florida real estate for wealthy migration patterns. |
| Oct 23 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ALLFG.AS, B3SA3.SA, JOE, SII, XP | AI Bubble, Capital markets, Economic Decline, emerging markets, gold, inflation, real estate, value |
JOE JOE |
Praetorian returned 5.70% in Q3 by owning cash-flowing value stocks while avoiding growth-without-profits mania. Manager expects severe correction from AI bubble burst and capital misallocation. Portfolio defensively positioned with international exposure, precious metals, and capital markets plays. Maintaining liquidity for post-crash opportunities while betting against current market euphoria through disciplined value approach. |
| Aug 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | JOE, SII | Cash, Dollar, Event-Driven, inflation, Reboot, value |
JOE JOE |
Kupperman rebooted his approach after recognizing he had become too institutional and analytical, losing his trading edge. The fund holds 40% cash after dramatically reducing exposure in May. He is positioned defensively with precious metals, emerging markets, and real estate plays while waiting patiently for obvious opportunities in an increasingly volatile market environment. |
| Apr 24 2025 | 2025 Q1 | JOE, NE, TDW, VAL | Credit Stress, Dollar, emerging markets, Energy Services, interest rates, Recession, trade war, volatility |
VAL TDW NE JOE |
Kupperman delivered 2.44% net returns in Q1 but dramatically de-risked following Liberation Day due to trade war concerns triggering a potential credit crisis. He maintains selective exposure to offshore energy services, emerging markets, and migration plays while positioning the Event-Driven book to benefit from volatility until better deployment opportunities emerge. |
| Jan 12 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AMRK, JOE, NE, SII, TDW, VAL | Concentration, energy, inflation, Offshore, real estate, value | - | Concentrated value fund suffered from offshore services and Florida real estate weakness despite strong underlying fundamentals. Manager doubled down on offshore thesis, believing decade-long bear market has ended with equipment shortage meeting growing demand. Portfolio trades at deepest discount since 2020 crash, positioned for value rotation as inflationary policies favor hard assets over growth stocks. |
| Oct 20 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AMRK, JOE, SII, TDW, U-U.TO, VAL | Concentration, Crisis, energy, Fiscal Crisis, inflation, Precious Metals, uranium, value |
VAL TDW U.TO AMRK JOE SII |
Praetorian Capital runs a concentrated portfolio positioned for fiscal crisis in over-indebted Western democracies. Despite Q3 underperformance from three large positions, manager Harris Kupperman maintains conviction in uranium, oilfield services, precious metals, and Florida real estate. The fund has reduced exposure dramatically, holding significant liquidity to deploy during anticipated market volatility following elections and economic deterioration. |
| Jul 21 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AMRK, JOE, NVDA, SII, TDW, U-U.TO, VAL | commodities, energy, Inflection, Oilfield Services, Precious Metals, small caps, uranium, value |
TDW VAL JOE AMRK SII |
Concentrated value fund down 1.69% in Q2 as core energy, uranium, and real estate positions await earnings inflections while Event-Driven book carried performance. Manager reduced exposure citing economic slowing and unfavorable low-volatility environment. Positioned defensively for election volatility while maintaining conviction in inflection investing approach requiring actual fundamental improvements, not just cheap valuations. |
| May 8 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AMRK, JOE, JOY.TO, TDW, U-U.TO, VAL | Crisis Hedge, energy, inflation, Precious Metals, uranium, value |
VAL TDW U.TO JOE AMRK JOY.TO |
Praetorian returned 9.25% in Q1 with concentrated bets on energy services, uranium, precious metals, and Florida real estate. Manager Kupperman positions for inevitable bond crisis from fiscal deficits, expecting central bank pivot to drive inflation and outperformance after two years of underperformance. Fund grown to $343M primarily through compounding. |
| May 1 2024 | 2023 Q4 | JOE, U-U.TO | aerospace, deep value, Inflection, Oil Services, uranium, value |
U-U.TO JOE |
Praetorian Capital delivered 26.45% net returns in 2023 through concentrated inflection investing in undervalued securities. Key themes include uranium supply deficit, oilfield services recovery post-consolidation, and aerospace/defense restocking cycles. Despite oil price disappointment, energy services positions appreciated on demand recovery. Manager optimistic about next five years with operational build-out complete. |
| May 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | JOE, U-U.TO | Argentina, Energy Services, Geopolitical, inflation, real estate, uranium, value |
U-U.TO JOE |
Praetorian Capital returned 11.92% net in Q3 2023 through concentrated bets on uranium, energy services, and Florida real estate. Manager Kupperman targets asymmetric opportunities in undervalued securities undergoing dynamic change. Despite frustration with recent performance, the portfolio is positioned for increased geopolitical volatility and inflation, with the manager excited about potentially more volatile markets ahead. |
| May 7 2023 | 2023 Q2 | BNO, JOE, JOY.TO, TDW, U-U.TO, VAL, YPF | Crisis, energy, inflation, oil, uranium, value |
ATU.TO JOE JOY.TO |
Kupperman's concentrated fund returned 8% in Q2, positioning for structural inflation through uranium and oil exposure. Reduced gross exposure below normal range due to systemic risk concerns including potential bond market disruption. Maintains conviction in nuclear power adoption and oil supply constraints while building cash for distressed opportunities during anticipated market volatility. |
| May 4 2023 | 2023 Q1 | JOE, JOY.TO, U-U.TO | commodities, Crisis, energy, oil, uranium, volatility |
U-U.TO JOY.TO JOE |
Kupperman's fund fell 2.09% in Q1 but he's positioned for an imminent energy crisis driven by oil supply deficits requiring 5-7% demand destruction. Core holdings include uranium, oil futures, energy services, and Florida land development. He anticipates simultaneous banking, real estate, and fiscal crises creating epic opportunities for patient capital with reduced exposure. |
| May 1 2023 | 2022 Q4 | JOE, KAP LI, U-U CN | - | - | |
| May 10 2022 | 2022 Q3 | BLDR, JOE | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
Emerging MarketsManager has built positions in various Emerging Markets that are highly impacted by the US Dollar, believing a weakening Dollar from MAGA policies will be a catalyst for asset values. Emerging Markets have been in a relative bear market for over a decade and are cheap from a valuation perspective. |
Dollar Emerging Markets Valuation Catalyst |
Precious MetalsIn an inflationary world with loss of faith in Central Banks, precious metals tend to do well. The fund owns two companies that should be beneficiaries of precious metals either appreciating or staying at elevated prices, neither directly in mining but one is a service provider to miners. |
Gold Inflation Central Banks | |
RefinersRefiners have suffered for over a decade but crack spreads have become elevated on a forward basis indicating market tightness. China has shut teapot refiners while demand continues to grow. The manager sees this as a bottleneck that extracts pricing economics in a demand recovery. |
Refined Products China Crack Spreads Demand | |
Capital MarketsMarex focuses on trading solutions for mid-market commodities firms and continues taking market share from bulge bracket firms. The manager sees increasing volatility and financialized markets driving demand for hedging products across commodities, currencies, interest rates and other derivatives. |
Trading Volatility Derivatives Market Share | |
VolatilityThe fund is positioned long volatility and long disruption, benefiting from war-time volatility. The manager expects continued elevated volatility in increasingly financialized markets and sees this as a structural tailwind for their trading-focused positions. |
Trading Disruption War | |
| 2025 Q4 |
OilOil represents the cheapest major asset class globally, trading at near-record lows relative to gold despite balanced fundamentals. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has created the largest supply shock in industry history, disrupting 20 million barrels per day. Non-OPEC supply growth is slowing dramatically, with U.S. shale production plateauing outside the Permian Basin. |
Crude Oil Brent WTI Shale OPEC |
Natural GasNatural gas ranks in the 99.5th percentile of historical undervaluation relative to equities. U.S. production growth has concentrated entirely in the Permian Basin, with other shale regions declining. Supply growth is expected to plateau as the Permian's gas production follows oil's slowing trajectory. |
Henry Hub LNG Shale Gas Permian | |
SilverSilver surged 220% in a dramatic catch-up rally, triggering a powerful sell signal for precious metals. Historical precedent shows such explosive silver moves mark important turning points, suggesting investors should reduce exposure to gold and silver equities in the short term. |
Silver Gold Ratio Precious Metals | |
CopperCopper markets have shifted back into surplus with exchange inventories rising to 1.2 million tonnes, levels last seen in 2003 when copper traded below $0.90 per pound. Despite strong performance in 2025, the fundamental outlook has deteriorated with slowing Chinese demand meeting rising supply. |
Copper Base Metals China Demand | |
Platinum Group MetalsPGMs experienced a powerful bull market with platinum rising 125% as the bearish EV narrative unravels. Policy reversals in the U.S. and Europe are extending the lifespan of internal combustion engines, supporting long-term demand for auto-catalysts that represent 65% of PGM consumption. |
Platinum Palladium Auto Catalysts Electric Vehicles | |
UraniumSurging uranium demand meets an increasingly fragile supply base, creating structural tightness in the market. The uranium fuel cycle faces significant supply constraints while global nuclear capacity expansion accelerates. |
Uranium Nuclear Fuel Cycle | |
CommoditiesThe commodity bull market has barely begun, with most commodities trading 73% below inflation-adjusted peaks. The detrended commodity-to-equity ratio shows extreme undervaluation near historic lows, suggesting a multi-year bull cycle ahead driven by capital starvation and coming supply shortages. |
Commodity Cycle Capital Cycle Valuation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Capital MarketsThe fund owns the ecosystems of bubbles including brokers, exchanges, intermediaries, and back-office settlements. These croupier businesses should benefit from government desires for asset inflation while being somewhat insulated from economic deterioration. |
Exchanges Brokers Settlement Asset Management Financial Infrastructure |
Emerging MarketsEmerging markets have been in a relative bear market for over a decade and are now quite cheap from a valuation perspective. The catalyst for unlocking value is expected to be a potential decline in the US Dollar tied to Trump Administration policies. |
Dollar Valuation MAGA Currency Catalyst | |
GoldIn an inflationary world with loss of faith in Central Banks, precious metals tend to do well. Gold outperforming real businesses indicates capital destruction and investors seeing no productive use for capital. |
Inflation Central Banks Store of Value Capital Destruction Currency Debasement | |
AIThe manager expects the economics of AI will not live up to insanely lofty expectations and that trillions of capital have been misallocated. This realization is expected to be a catalyst for a severe market decline. |
Bubble Misallocation Expectations Catalyst Valuation | |
Commercial Real EstateSt. Joe owns approximately 167,000 acres in the Florida Panhandle and is positioned to benefit from population migration as wealthy people flee big cities for peaceful locations with zero state income taxes. |
Migration Wealth Effect Land Florida Tax Refugees | |
| 2025 Q2 |
GoldIn an inflationary world with loss of faith in Central Banks, precious metals tend to do well. The fund owns three companies that should be beneficiaries of precious metals either appreciating or at least staying at elevated prices. |
Precious Metals Inflation Central Banks Gold Miners |
Emerging marketsFor the past decade, Emerging Markets have been in a relative bear market as investor capital migrated to US markets. Many emerging markets have gotten quite cheap from a valuation perspective. The catalyst is a potential decline in the US Dollar tied to Trump Administration policy changes. |
Dollar Valuation Trump Currency | |
Real EstateJOE owns approximately 167,000 acres in the Florida Panhandle and has traded for a tiny fraction of its liquidation value for years. The population of the Panhandle has hit critical mass, attracting people to one of the prettiest places in the country with zero state income taxes. |
Land Florida Population Migration Tax Benefits | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyLiberation Day triggered a trade war with rapidly changing rules that are paralyzing business planning. The manager believes this uncertainty will lead to recession and compound existing economic trends. |
Tariffs Trade War Uncertainty Business Planning Recession |
Credit StressThe manager anticipates an inevitable credit event in the US Treasury market that will spill into private credit, corporate refinancings, and private equity as COVID-era loans come due at higher rates. |
Treasury Market Private Credit Corporate Refinancing Private Equity Interest Rates | |
Oil ServicesThe fund owns offshore drilling companies purchased at discounts to replacement cost, believing offshore spending will increase due to better economics versus onshore shale fields. |
Offshore Drilling Drillships Jack-ups OSVs Replacement Cost | |
Emerging MarketsAfter a decade-long bear market, emerging markets are cheap and positioned to benefit from a potential US Dollar decline tied to MAGA policies requiring a weak Dollar strategy. |
Dollar Weakness Valuation MAGA Policies Currency Catalyst | |
Commercial Real EstateThe manager identifies a brewing commercial real estate crisis as one of many intertwined crises exposed by the withdrawal of foreign capital and rising interest rates. |
CRE Crisis Interest Rates Foreign Capital Real Estate | |
GoldIn an inflationary world with loss of faith in Central Banks, precious metals tend to perform well. The fund owns companies that benefit from elevated precious metals prices. |
Inflation Central Banks Precious Metals Gold Prices | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Oilfield ServicesManager believes offshore oil will gain market share from shale as best US shale basins mature and production stagnates. Offshore equipment fleet has shrunk by half due to decade-long bear market, while demand for higher quality drillships grows. No new equipment likely to be built until dayrates reach levels where current owners earn excess profits. |
Drilling Offshore Drilling Oil Services Oil Equipment Subsea |
Commercial Real EstateFund owns substantial Florida Panhandle land through St. Joe Company, benefiting from rapid population growth in the region. Manager believes land is trading at significant discount to net asset value, with development activities adding value to both individual projects and the broader landbank through multiplier effects. |
Real Estate Services Homebuilders Commercial Real Estate | |
UraniumManager remains bullish on uranium despite using position as source of proceeds to fund offshore services purchases. Position represents approximately 6.2% of capital at year-end, down from higher levels as manager rotated into what he views as cheaper offshore services opportunities. |
Uranium Nuclear Energy Transition | |
GoldFund holds positions in precious metals dealers and asset managers as hedge against increasing global chaos. Manager believes people will seek physical precious metals ownership, benefiting companies like A-Mark and Sprott that facilitate these transactions and manage commodity-focused ETFs. |
Gold Precious Metals Alternative Asset Managers | |
| 2024 Q3 |
UraniumSociety will eventually settle on nuclear power as a compromise solution for baseload power generation at a time when there is a deficit of uranium production compared with growing demand. As aboveground stocks are consumed, uranium prices should appreciate. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust is purchasing uranium through an ATM offering, which should accelerate price realization by sequestering available above-ground stockpile. |
Nuclear Uranium Fuel Cycle Energy Transition Commodities Sprott |
Oilfield ServicesFollowing the 2020 oil crisis when drilling activity ground to a halt and many energy service providers declared bankruptcy, consolidation has reduced future industry capacity. With oil prices recovering, demand for drilling and other services should increase from subdued levels. The manager purchased positions at fractions of equipment replacement cost despite restored balance sheets and positive operating cash flow. |
Oil Services Drilling Energy Valaris Tidewater | |
Precious MetalsAs the world gets increasingly chaotic, people will realize that ownership of precious metals in physical form is part of being financially prudent. A-Mark benefits from periods of chaos through increased transaction volumes and wider spreads. The business offers leverage to precious metals without the risks of owning a mine. |
Gold Silver Precious Metals Crisis Physical | |
Fiscal CrisisMost over-indebted Western Socialist Democracies will experience sovereign debt crises in the next few years, with the US likely at the epicenter given astronomical levels of future entitlements. The insolvency relating to entitlements has evolved from actuarial insolvency into an actual cash flow crunch as boomers retire. The cope mechanism will be money printing and increased borrowing. |
Debt Entitlements Inflation Crisis Bonds | |
Florida Real EstateSt. Joe owns approximately 168,000 acres in the Florida Panhandle, which has hit critical mass where the Panhandle now has a center of gravity attracting people to one of the prettiest places in the country with zero state income taxes. Land tends to appreciate rapidly during periods of high inflation, and the manager expects a massive population migration as people flee big cities. |
Real Estate Land Florida Migration Inflation | |
| 2024 Q2 |
UraniumSociety will eventually settle on nuclear power as a compromise solution for baseload power generation at a time when there is a deficit of uranium production compared with growing demand. As aboveground stocks are consumed, uranium prices should appreciate. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust is purchasing uranium through an ATM offering, which should accelerate price realization by sequestering available above-ground stockpile. |
Nuclear Energy Transition Commodities Uranium Fuel Cycle Energy Storage |
Oilfield ServicesFollowing bankruptcies in 2020 when oil traded below zero, consolidation and reduced future industry capacity removed competition. With oil prices recovering, demand for drilling and other services will increase from subdued levels. The only way to reduce future energy prices is to see a dramatic increase in global oilfield services spending. |
Oil Services Drilling Energy Commodities Completion | |
Precious MetalsAs the world gets increasingly crazy, people will realize that ownership of precious metals in physical form is part of being financially prudent. A-Mark benefits from periods of chaos through increased transaction volumes and wider spreads. Gold has made new all-time highs in US Dollars, creating opportunities for leverage to precious metals without mining risks. |
Gold Silver Inflation Crisis Physical Assets | |
Florida Real EstateThe Florida Panhandle population has hit critical mass where it now has a center of gravity attracting people to one of the prettiest places in the country with zero state income taxes and few problems of large cities. Land tends to appreciate rapidly during periods of high inflation, particularly when interest rates remain suppressed by the Federal Reserve. |
Real Estate Demographics Migration Tax Policy Inflation | |
Inflection InvestingThe market cares if reported numbers are improving rapidly, not if something is cheap. Inflection investing works in most market environments when there actually is an inflection in underlying financial performance. Without an inflection in performance, there has been no inflection in share prices for many positions. |
Value Earnings Growth Fundamentals Catalysts | |
| 2024 Q1 |
UraniumSociety will eventually settle on nuclear power as a compromise solution for baseload power generation at a time when there is a deficit of uranium production compared with growing demand. As aboveground stocks are consumed, uranium prices should appreciate towards the marginal cost of production. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust is sequestering available above-ground stockpile through ATM offerings. |
Nuclear Uranium Energy Storage Baseload Power Supply Deficit |
Oil ServicesEnergy service providers consolidated after bankruptcies during the 2020 oil crisis, removing future competition and industry capacity. With oil prices recovering, demand for drilling and other services will increase from subdued levels. Positions were purchased at fractions of equipment replacement cost despite restored balance sheets and positive operating cash flow. |
Drilling Oil Equipment Oilfield Services Energy Recovery Consolidation | |
InflationThe fund has been heavily weighted towards inflationary assets during a time when inflation rates were in decline. As the Central Bank is forced to pivot due to fiscal deficits and bond market stress, the portfolio should finally perform more in line with expectations. Land and precious metals are positioned to benefit from inflationary periods. |
Inflation Precious Metals Real Estate Monetary Policy Asset Prices | |
GoldA-Mark benefits from periods of chaos through increased transaction volumes and wider spreads they can charge. The business serves as a proxy for anticipated increases in precious metals prices without the risks of owning a mine. During crisis periods, the business can earn as much as $10 per share with healthy multiples applied. |
Gold Precious Metals Crisis Hedge Physical Ownership Counter-cyclical | |
| 2023 Q4 |
UraniumSociety will eventually settle on nuclear power as a compromise solution for baseload power generation at a time when there is a deficit of uranium production compared with growing demand. As aboveground stocks are consumed, uranium prices should appreciate towards the marginal cost of production. The deficit problem is so severe and immediate that utilities and fuel buyers are starting to see the writing on the wall. |
Nuclear Uranium Fuel Cycle Energy Transition |
Oilfield ServicesIn 2020 when oil traded below zero, drilling activity ground to a halt and many energy service providers declared bankruptcy, leading to consolidation and reduced future industry capacity. With oil prices now recovered, demand for drilling and other services has increased from subdued levels. The only way to reduce future energy prices is to see a dramatic increase in global oilfield services spending. |
Oil Services Drilling Completion Oil Equipment | |
AerospaceAerospace and defense component suppliers have been in a bear market for many years due to weak aircraft demand, Boeing 737 MAX delays, and Covid impact. However, demand has recovered strongly following substantial ordering of new aircraft from Boeing and Airbus, with both having the largest orderbooks in US Dollar terms during their history. Military demand will increase substantially as the US and Europe restock depleted stockpiles. |
Aerospace Components Defense Components Defense Spending | |
| 2023 Q3 |
UraniumSociety will eventually settle on nuclear power as a compromise solution for baseload power generation at a time when there is a deficit of uranium production compared with growing demand. As aboveground stocks are consumed, uranium prices should appreciate towards the marginal cost of production. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust is purchasing uranium through an ATM offering, which should accelerate price realization by sequestering available above-ground stockpile when utilities need substantial purchases to re-stock. |
Nuclear Uranium Energy Transition Commodities Sprott |
Energy ServicesIn 2020 when oil traded below zero, drilling activity ground to a halt and many energy service providers declared bankruptcy, leading to consolidation and reduced future industry capacity. With oil prices recovering, demand for drilling and other services will increase from subdued levels. The only way to reduce future energy prices is to see a dramatic increase in global oilfield services spending, and any postponement only leads to higher prices. |
Oil Services Drilling Energy Consolidation Recovery | |
Real EstateSt. Joe owns approximately 170,000 acres in the Florida Panhandle and has traded for a tiny fraction of its liquidation value for years. The population of the Panhandle has hit a critical mass attracting people who want to live in one of the prettiest places in the country with zero state income taxes. Land tends to appreciate rapidly during periods of high inflation, and there is expected to be a massive population migration as people with means choose to flee big cities for somewhere peaceful. |
Land Florida Migration Inflation Real Estate | |
| 2023 Q2 |
UraniumSociety will eventually settle on nuclear power as a compromise solution for baseload power generation at a time when there is a deficit of uranium production compared with growing demand. As aboveground stocks are consumed, uranium prices should appreciate towards the marginal cost of production. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust is purchasing uranium through an ATM offering, which should accelerate price realization by sequestering available above-ground stockpile when utilities need substantial purchases to re-stock. |
Nuclear Uranium Energy |
OilYears of reduced capital expenditures, ESG restricting capital access, and Western governments hostile to fossil fuels have created an environment for dramatically higher oil prices. The manager believes oil will go much higher in the future and prefers owning the physical commodity over producers as a more conservative approach with maximum upside to oil and inflation while exposing to reduced risk. |
Oil Energy Commodities | |
Energy ServicesIn 2020 when oil traded below zero, drilling activity halted and many energy service providers declared bankruptcy, leading to consolidation and reduced future industry capacity. With oil prices recovering, demand for drilling and other services will increase from subdued levels. These positions were purchased at fractions of equipment replacement cost despite restored balance sheets and positive operating cash flow. |
Energy Services Drilling Oil Equipment | |
InflationThe fund is positioned to be structurally long inflation. The manager believes the forces of inflation are structural and secular, not cyclical. When Central Bankers are forced to pause or cut rates, inflation will reaccelerate and lead positions to resume their prior trends. The Fed can fight these trends but only at the cost of economic growth. |
Inflation Monetary Policy Rates | |
| 2023 Q1 |
OilManager believes an imminent energy crisis will supersede interest rate impacts, driven by reversing headwinds including China reopening, depleted strategic reserves, and OPEC production cuts. Expects oil prices must rise to destroy 5-7% of global demand to balance markets. |
Oil Energy Crisis OPEC Strategic Reserves Demand Destruction |
UraniumSociety will eventually settle on nuclear power as baseload solution during uranium production deficit. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust's aggressive purchasing will accelerate price realization by sequestering above-ground stockpile when utilities need substantial restocking. |
Uranium Nuclear Sprott Supply Deficit Utilities | |
Energy ServicesBankruptcies in 2020 led to consolidation and reduced industry capacity. With oil prices recovering, demand for drilling services will increase from subdued levels, though producers have been slow to increase exploration spending. |
Energy Services Drilling Consolidation Capacity Recovery | |
Commercial Real EstateManager identifies a pending commercial real estate crisis as one of multiple simultaneous crises that will be accentuated by the coming energy crisis. |
Commercial Real Estate Crisis Pending | |
Credit StressManager describes a slow-burning banking crisis that will be accentuated by the coming energy crisis, especially as the Fed's tools are pressed to the limit for fear of breaking something else. |
Banking Crisis Credit Fed Financial System | |
InflationManager describes an inflationary crisis occurring simultaneously with multiple other crises. Land tends to appreciate rapidly during periods of high inflation, particularly when interest rates remain suppressed by the Federal Reserve. |
Inflation Crisis Land Interest Rates | |
GoldManager is considering precious metals, which may be entering a new bull market, possibly the bull market that comes when the edifices around us collapse and the authorities lose control. |
Precious Metals Gold Bull Market Collapse |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | MRX | Marex | Capital Markets | Capital Markets | Bull | - | Capital markets, Commodities Trading, consolidation, Derivatives, Hedge funds, market share gains, Mid-market, ROE, Volatility | Login |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | JOE | St. Joe | Real Estate - Diversified | Real Estate Development | Bull | - | AFFO, Demographics, Florida, inflation hedge, land, migration, real estate development, ROIC, Tax Arbitrage | Login |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Fund Letters | Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman | JOE | St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Operating Companies | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AFFO, inflation, land, migration, Rea lestate | Login |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Fund Letters | Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman | MRX | Marex Group plc | Financials | Investment Banking & Brokerage | Bull | NASDAQ | Brokerage, consolidation, Derivatives, Hedging, Volatility | Login |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman | JOE | The St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | NYSE | AFFO, Demographics, Housing, inflation hedge, Land value, migration, Real Estate | Login |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Fund Letters | Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman | JOE | The St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | NYSE | AFFO, Demographics, Housing, inflation hedge, Land value, migration, Real Estate | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman | JOE | The St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Diversified Real Estate Activities | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AFFO, Florida Panhandle, inflation hedge, land bank, migration, Real Estate, Residential Development | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | JOE | St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | NYSE | AFFO, demographic trends, Florida, inflation hedge, Land Banking, Population Migration, real estate development, ROIC, Tax Haven, Value | Login |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | VAL | Valaris | Energy | Oil & Gas Drilling | Bull | NYSE | Asset Replacement Cost, backlogs, Cyclical, Drillships, Energy Services, Jack-ups, offshore drilling, Oil & Gas | Login |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | NE | Noble Corporation | Energy | Oil & Gas Drilling | Bull | NYSE | Asset Replacement Cost, Cyclical, Drillships, Energy Services, Jack-ups, Mobile Drilling Units, offshore drilling, Oil & Gas | Login |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | JOE | St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | NYSE | AFFO, Florida, inflation hedge, land development, Population Migration, real estate development, ROIC, tax advantages | Login |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | TDW | Tidewater | Energy | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | NYSE | Asset Replacement Cost, backlogs, Cyclical, Energy Services, offshore drilling, Offshore Service Vessels, Oil & Gas, OSV | Login |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | U.TO | Sprott Physical Uranium Trust | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | TSX | ATM Offering, Baseload Power, Nuclear Power, Physical Commodity, supply deficit, Trust Structure, uranium | Login |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | JOE | St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | NYSE | Florida, inflation hedge, land bank, Population Migration, real estate development, tax advantages, Urban Flight | Login |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | AMRK | A-Mark Precious Metals | Consumer Discretionary | Specialized Consumer Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Coin Dealer, Counter-cyclical, Crisis Hedge, high-ROIC, insider ownership, Physical Gold, Precious Metals | Login |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | SII | Sprott Inc. | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | asset management, ETF Manager, Fee-based Model, operating leverage, Precious Metals, Scarcity Value, uranium | Login |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | VAL | Valaris | Energy | Oil & Gas Drilling | Bull | NYSE | cash flow, consolidation, Cyclical Recovery, energy, Equipment, offshore drilling, oilfield services | Login |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | TDW | Tidewater | Energy | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | NYSE | consolidation, Cyclical Recovery, energy, Marine Support, Offshore services, oilfield services, Vessel Fleet | Login |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | TDW | Tidewater Inc. | Energy | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | NYSE | Cyclical, Inflection, margin expansion, Marine services, Offshore, Oil Services, old economy, Revenue Growth | Login |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | VAL | Valaris Limited | Energy | Oil & Gas Drilling | Bull | NYSE | balance sheet, Contract Repricing, duration, enterprise value, Fleet Quality, Market Rates, offshore drilling, warrants | Login |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | JOE | The St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | NYSE | AFFO, Demographics, Florida, inflation hedge, land development, migration, Real Estate, ROIC, tax advantages | Login |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | SII | Sprott Inc. | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | asset management, Commodity Exposure, ETFs, management fees, operating leverage, Precious Metals, Scarcity Value, uranium | Login |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | AMRK | A-Mark Precious Metals Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Counter-cyclical, Crisis Hedge, insider ownership, Mining Alternative, Physical Gold, Precious Metals, Spreads, transaction volumes | Login |
| Apr 23, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | JOY.TO | Journey Energy | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | TSX | Canadian Energy, Commodity Exposure, ESG Constraints, heavy crude, oil producer, supply constraints, Underinvestment | Login |
| Apr 23, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | TDW | Tidewater | Energy | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | NYSE | Asset-Heavy, consolidation, Cyclical Recovery, Energy Services, Marine Support, Offshore support vessels, Oil & Gas | Login |
| Apr 23, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | VAL | Valaris | Energy | Oil & Gas Drilling | Bull | NYSE | Asset-Heavy, consolidation, Cyclical Recovery, Energy Services, offshore drilling, Oil & Gas, Replacement Cost | Login |
| Apr 23, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | U.TO | Sprott Physical Uranium Trust | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | TSX | Baseload Power, commodity, energy transition, Nuclear Power, Physical Uranium, supply deficit, utilities | Login |
| Apr 23, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | JOE | St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | NYSE | Demographics, Florida, inflation hedge, Land Banking, Population Migration, real estate development, Tax Migration | Login |
| Apr 23, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | AMRK | A-Mark Precious Metals | Consumer Discretionary | Specialized Consumer Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Counter-cyclical, Crisis Hedge, high-ROIC, online retail, Physical Gold, Precious Metals, vertical integration | Login |
| Oct 25, 2023 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | JOE | St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Demographics, Florida, growth, inflation hedge, land, migration, real estate development, Value | Login |
| Oct 25, 2023 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | U-U.TO | Sprott Physical Uranium Trust | Financials | Commodity Funds | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Baseload Power, Commodity Fund, energy, Nuclear Power, Physical Uranium, supply deficit, uranium | Login |
| Jul 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | ATU.TO | Sprott Physical Uranium Trust | Materials | Diversified Metals & Mining | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | ATM Offering, Baseload Power, Canada, materials, Nuclear Power, Physical Commodity, supply deficit, uranium, Utility Restocking | Login |
| Jul 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | JOE | St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Florida, high-ROIC, inflation hedge, land bank, Population growth, real estate development, Tax Migration, Urban Exodus, Value Investment | Login |
| Jul 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | JOY.TO | Journey Energy Inc | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Canada, Capital Expenditure Cuts, Commodity Exposure, Energy crisis, ESG Constraints, oil producer, supply constraints, Western Canadian Basin | Login |
| Apr 19, 2023 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | JOE | The St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Demographics, Florida, High Growth, inflation hedge, land bank, Population Migration, real estate development, Tax Haven, Urban Exodus, Value Investment | Login |
| Apr 19, 2023 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | U-U.TO | Sprott Physical Uranium Trust | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Commodity Trust, energy transition, geopolitical, Nuclear Power, Physical Commodity, Russia Sanctions, supply deficit, uranium, utilities | Login |
| Apr 19, 2023 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | JOY.TO | Journey Energy Inc | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Canadian Energy, capital expenditure, Commodity Exposure, Energy crisis, ESG Constraints, Fossil Fuels, inflation hedge, oil producer | Login |
| Jan 19, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | U-U.TO | Sprott Physical Uranium Trust | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Baseload Power, Canada, Commodity Trust, energy transition, Nuclear Power, Physical Commodity, supply deficit, uranium, utilities | Login |
| Jan 19, 2024 | Fund Letters | Praetorian Capital Management | JOE | St. Joe Company | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AFFO, demographic trends, Florida, inflation hedge, land bank, Population Migration, real estate development, ROIC, tax advantages, Value to Growth | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| MRX | Marex focuses on trading solutions for mid-market commodities firms, hedge funds and futures speculators. Marex continues to take market share from bulge bracket firms who are unable to offer competitive levels of services to mid-market firms, while consistently purchasing smaller players who cannot afford the increased compliance costs of participating in a global market. Marex recently pre-announced blow-out results for the first quarter, and saw its shares appreciate by 38% from before the announcement until the shares peaked out 13 trading days later. I originally expected Marex to earn around $4 to $5 a share in 2026 (up from $4.12 in 2025). Following a huge March for them, I now expect Marex to earn well in excess of $5 and more like $6 a share in 2027. Putting a 20 times earnings multiple on that gets you to $120 a share for a fair value as we begin to approach next year, when compared to $44.58 at quarter end. Marex trades at a high single-digit 2027 estimated earnings multiple, has grown earnings at an impressive rate, and has consistently earned unusually high returns on equity, despite constantly reinvesting in the business. |
| JOE | JOE owns approximately 165,000 acres in the Florida Panhandle. It has been widely known that JOE traded for a tiny fraction of its liquidation value for years, but without a catalyst, it was always perceived to be dead money. Over the past few years, the population of the Panhandle has hit a critical mass where the Panhandle now has a center of gravity that is attracting people who want to live in one of the prettiest places in the country, with zero state income taxes and few of the problems of large cities. I believe that JOE may grow revenue at a rapid rate for the foreseeable future, with earnings growing at a much faster clip. Meanwhile, I believe the shares trade at an attractive multiple on Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO), while substantial asset value is tossed in for free. Land tends to appreciate rapidly during periods of high inflation. I believe we are witnessing a massive population migration as people with means choose to flee big cities for somewhere peaceful. I suspect that every convulsion of urban chaos and/or tax-the-rich scheming will launch JOE shares higher, and it will ultimately be seen as the way to play the stream of very wealthy refugees fleeing for somewhere better. |
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