The curated database of hedge funds that publish investor letters. Research by geography, strategy, and schools of thought.
| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Markets staged a strong recovery in Q2 2026, with the S&P 500 gaining 15% and finishing near record highs despite significant headwinds. The Middle East conflict that closed the Strait of Hormuz drove oil to $115 in April, pushing inflation to a three-year high of 4.2%. However, oil reversed sharply to $70 by quarter end following a ceasefire, removing the primary inflation driver. Semiconductor stocks led the rally with an 88% quarterly return, their strongest performance in nearly 30 years, fueled by massive AI infrastructure spending projected to reach $724 billion in 2026. Market leadership broadened significantly, with small-caps gaining 22% year-to-date and outperforming large-caps as profit margins improved from Fed rate cuts and valuations became more attractive. The Federal Reserve shifted from expected rate cuts to signaling potential hikes during the quarter, though easing oil prices may reduce this pressure. Technology stocks showed both the promise of AI transformation and the risks of elevated expectations, with late-quarter pullbacks demonstrating valuation sensitivity. Looking ahead, the path of inflation, sustainability of AI spending, and continuation of market breadth will shape the remainder of 2026.
Markets demonstrated resilience in Q2 2026 by recovering strongly despite geopolitical conflict, an oil shock, and elevated inflation, with the S&P 500 gaining 15% and finishing near record highs as oil prices reversed and market breadth expanded beyond mega-cap technology stocks.
The remainder of 2026 will be shaped by three key questions: whether inflation eases as oil prices have fallen, whether the AI investment cycle and associated stock gains can be sustained, and whether market breadth continues beyond mega-cap tech. The next inflation reports will determine Fed policy direction. AI spending must translate into real profits to justify current valuations, especially as more is funded through debt and equity issuance. Market leadership has broadened this year across sectors and company sizes, but it remains to be seen if this continues or narrows again. Despite facing war, energy shock, three-year high inflation, and potential Fed rate hikes, stocks traded to new highs in Q2, demonstrating market resilience.
As of Jul 2, 2026
Paul Michel, CFP® founded Provident Financial Planning in 2017 after being frustrated by the limitations and boilerplate strategies at his previous national firm. He holds the Certified Financial Planner (CFP) designation and has passed 3 general industry/product exams and 2 state securities law exams. His previous experience includes roles at major firms such as Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Lincoln Financial Advisors Corporation, and Northwestern Mutual Investment Services, LLC. Michel currently serves as the Chief Compliance Officer and Managing Member at Provident Financial Planning, LLC since December 2017, and additionally serves as Chairman of the Advisory Board at Avondale Investment Management since January 2023, demonstrating continued involvement in the broader investment management industry.
Lead Portfolio Manager
Neutral / Balanced
Market Conviction
This is a market commentary letter rather than a fund letter, with no individual positions named, sized, or discussed. The manager provides broad market analysis across indexes, sectors, and themes but offers no specific portfolio holdings or position-level conviction. The letter discusses five companies (Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Oracle) only in aggregate as examples of AI capital spending, not as investment recommendations. The analysis is educational and thematic, covering multiple scenarios (oil paths, AI sustainability, market breadth) without stating a base case or portfolio implications. The absence of named positions, position sizing, or specific portfolio actions caps the conviction score. Given the analytical depth and clear thematic views, but complete lack of portfolio specificity, a score of 0.45 is appropriate.
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains high conviction: Q1 2026 saw oil prices surge 70% due to Middle East tensions, driving S&P 500 down 4.3% while smaller companies outperformed. AI disruption fears hammered software stocks down 30%....
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is very low conviction: Q1 2026 saw oil prices surge 70% due to Middle East tensions, driving S&P 500 down 4.3% while smaller companies outperformed. AI disruption fears hammered software stocks down 30%....
Capital Deployment
The letter provides no information about portfolio cash levels, position additions, reductions, or any capital deployment activity. This is a market commentary document focused on explaining market developments rather than describing portfolio changes. Without any data on cash level changes or net buying/selling activity, the capital deployment index cannot be assessed and defaults to 0.00, indicating no determinable deployment activity.
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Q1 2026 saw oil prices surge 70% due to Middle East tensions, driving S&P 500 down 4.3% while smaller companies outperformed. AI disruption fears hammered software stocks down 30%....
Language Signal
The letter contains more bullish than bearish directional language, but maintains balance throughout. Bullish language includes: strong recovery, record highs, rally, gains broadened, resilience, outperformed, improving earnings, attractive valuations, and opportunity. Bearish language includes: volatility, concerns, risks, elevated inflation, high expectations, and caution. The manager uses constructive framing when discussing market outcomes (stocks not only held their ground but traded to new highs) but pairs this with risk acknowledgment. The net balance tilts positive given the emphasis on market strength and broadening participation, but the substantial risk discussion prevents a higher score. A score of +0.35 reflects this moderately bullish language balance.
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Q1 2026 saw oil prices surge 70% due to Middle East tensions, driving S&P 500 down 4.3% while smaller companies outperformed. AI disruption fears hammered software stocks down 30%....
Opportunity Density
The manager describes a broadening opportunity set across multiple market segments. Key evidence includes: market breadth remained strong with gains spreading beyond technology, small-caps and mid-caps outperforming large-caps, nine of eleven S&P 500 sectors finishing higher, international markets advancing alongside U.S. stocks, and improving profit margins in smaller companies making valuations more attractive. The manager notes that market leadership has broadened this year, creating a more balanced market and characterizes this as parts of the market trading at valuation discounts with improving earnings. While acknowledging selectivity is required in some areas, the overall tone suggests multiple areas of opportunity across company sizes, styles, and geographies. This supports a score of 0.65, indicating selective but meaningful opportunity breadth.
Time Horizon
The manager emphasizes a long-term perspective multiple times, stating a diversified portfolio and a long-term perspective can help navigate periods of uncertainty. However, much of the letter focuses on near-to-medium term catalysts: the next few inflation reports determining Fed policy, coming inflation reports showing whether oil cooling translates to lower inflation, and developments over the remainder of 2026. The manager discusses quarterly market movements and near-term policy decisions extensively. While long-term language is present, the analytical focus is on 6-12 month catalysts and quarterly developments rather than multi-year thesis development. This medium-term orientation with long-term framing supports a score of 0.60.
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