| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Mark Egan criticizes the Federal Reserve's approach to economic management, arguing that their belief in precisely controlling inflation and unemployment through the federal funds rate represents dangerous reductivism. He draws parallels to climate science, noting that complex systems cannot be accurately predicted or managed through single-variable models. Egan praises Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for exposing the Fed's limitations and advocating for inflation range targets rather than precise decimal point management. The manager believes the U.S. economy is far too complex to be manipulated through short-term rate adjustments, suggesting the Fed's tools have minimal impact except at extremes. Looking forward, Egan expects the current environment of increased uncertainty to continue and likely worsen, driven by the Fed's limited tools after decades of mismanagement and deteriorating fiscal conditions both domestically and abroad. He rejects the possibility of returning to very low rates and volatility as wishful thinking, positioning his firm to face the challenging environment head-on with excitement rather than trepidation.
The Federal Reserve's belief in precise economic management through single-variable manipulation is fundamentally flawed reductivism, and the current environment of increased uncertainty will persist and worsen due to limited Fed tools and poor fiscal conditions.
The manager expects the challenging environment of increased uncertainty to continue and likely worsen, rejecting any return to very low rates and volatility as wishful thinking.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | Bonds, Economic Uncertainty, Federal Reserve, monetary policy, rates, volatility | - | The manager criticizes the Federal Reserve's belief that they can precisely manage inflation and economic variables through the federal funds rate, calling this extreme reductivism. He argues the U.S. economy is too complex to be managed by a single variable and that the Fed's tools are limited after decades of mismanagement. The manager expects continued and likely worsening uncertainty in markets, rejecting the idea of returning to very low rates and low volatility as wishful thinking. He views the current challenging environment as persistent due to fiscal issues and Fed limitations. |
| Oct 3 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Caution, liquidity, Macro Uncertainty, risk management, valuation | - | Reams emphasizes a defensive stance amid historically stretched valuations and rising macro uncertainty. The letter underscores the importance of avoiding speculative behavior and maintaining flexibility for unforeseen market shocks. The firm favors minimizing exposure to unpredictable outcomes while preserving liquidity and optionality. |
| Jul 3 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | capital preservation, Discipline, flexibility, risk management, volatility | - | The letter emphasizes disciplined risk management in an environment of policy uncertainty, volatile markets, and elevated asset prices. Management argues for reducing risk, increasing flexibility, and preparing capital for future dislocations. The approach prioritizes preservation today to enable opportunity tomorrow. |
| Apr 3 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 4 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 3 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 3 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 1 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 3 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity |
VolatilityMarket volatility in spring 2025 triggered by trade tariff uncertainty led to a broad sell-off, with strategies down over 23% year-to-date at the trough. The manager used this volatility to add exposure at attractive prices during the decline. |
Market volatility Sell-off Opportunity Exposure Timing | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Macro |
|
| 2025 Q2 |
Discipline |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
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| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
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| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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