| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -18.2% | -18.2% |
Recurve Capital experienced a challenging March 2026, declining 8.0% net versus 5.1% for the S&P 500, bringing year-to-date performance to -18.2% net. The Iran war created supply shocks affecting up to 20% of global oil volume through the Strait of Hormuz, driving stagflation fears across markets. Manager Aaron Chan made no portfolio changes during the month, refusing to sell positions in drawdowns to buy others similarly affected. The fund maintains a concentrated portfolio led by Carvana at 47.7%, which continues growing 40% year-over-year despite trading at attractive 20x 2026 EBITDA multiples. Chan expects the geopolitical crisis to create only transitory cost pressures rather than permanent earnings damage. The portfolio targets companies with competitive advantages, strong operating leverage, and differentiated business models capable of growth regardless of macro conditions. Market volatility has increased significantly, with 20-30% monthly stock moves becoming common, attributed to levered hedge fund activity magnifying price swings while containing index-level volatility.
Recurve targets competitively advantaged companies with strong operating leverage and balance sheets that can generate growth over the medium- to long-term, focusing on businesses sufficiently differentiated and underpenetrated to grow despite macro headwinds.
Manager expects transitory elevated input costs across multiple industries, but limited permanent damage done to medium-term earnings power for most companies and industries. Highly skeptical that we will see long-term, multi-year impacts from the Iran war.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1 2026 | 2026 Q1 | CCOI, CVNA, RCL | Cyclical, drawdowns, Geopolitical, growth, portfolio, value, volatility | CVNA | Recurve declined 8.0% in March amid Iran war-driven oil supply shocks, bringing YTD performance to -18.2%. Manager made no trades, holding concentrated positions led by 47.7% Carvana allocation. Expects transitory inflation impacts rather than permanent earnings damage. Portfolio targets differentiated companies with operating leverage capable of growth despite macro headwinds. |
| Mar 2 2026 | 2025 Q4 | CCOI, CVNA, QQQ, RCL | AI, disruption, innovation, Quality, technology, value | - | Recurve delivered +10% net returns in 2025 despite low batting average, powered by Carvana's 100x recovery from 2022 lows. The strategy targets disruptive companies in stable industries combining physical infrastructure with proprietary technology, positioning them as AI-durable. Recent software sector weakness creates opportunities while portfolio companies leverage technology internally rather than as vulnerable end products. |
| Nov 24 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AMZN, BC.MI, CCOI, CVNA, ELF, KMX, PAY, RCL, RH | E-Commerce, growth, Luxury, opportunity, Portfolio Management, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | Recurve declined 1.5% in September but used volatility to reposition, trimming Carvana profits to add to Brunello Cucinelli and Paymentus. Carvana continues exceptional execution with 45%+ growth while competitors struggle. Trade policy uncertainty affects RH and ELF but both show best-in-class growth. Manager sees exceptional long-term opportunities despite short-term headwinds. |
| Jul 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AMZN, BC.MI, CCOI, CVNA, ELF, MSFT, PAY, RCL, RH | Concentration, Decision Tree, disruption, E-Commerce, growth, Long Term, value creation, volatility |
CVNA CCOI RH CVNA CCOI RCL ELF RH AMZN PAY BC |
Recurve delivered exceptional Q2 performance (+31% gross) led by concentrated Carvana position using decision tree framework. Manager embraces volatility for alpha generation while targeting disruptive companies with secular growth and modern operating platforms. Despite near-term headwinds in Cogent and RH, portfolio positioned for continued outperformance through patient capital deployment and disciplined concentration management. |
| May 14 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AMZN, BC, CCOI, CVNA, ELF, RCL, RH, W | consumer, growth, Luxury, tariffs, technology, uncertainty, volatility |
RH CCOI W |
Recurve Capital returned -13% net in Q1 2025 amid tariff-driven volatility, with concentrated exposure led by 43.5% Carvana position. Fund opportunistically added to RH during selloff, seeing $50+ EPS potential despite tariff headwinds. Direct tariff exposure under 20% through consumer goods companies. Manager maintains long-term focus on disruptive growth companies while playing offense during market fear. |
| Jan 16 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AMZN, AWI, BC.MI, CCOI, CVNA, NCLH, RCL, RH, W | disruption, E-Commerce, growth, Luxury, Recovery, technology, Travel, value | - | Recurve delivered 55.7% net returns in 2024, recovering strongly from 2022 drawdown through concentrated investments in disruptive companies. Led by Carvana's three-phase transformation, the portfolio targets Builder Companies with significant market share growth potential in non-disruptive industries. Strong forward outlook with multiple performance drivers and disciplined valuation approach targeting 15%+ long-term returns. |
| Oct 15 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AMZN, AWI, BC, CCOI, CVNA, NCLH, RCL, RH, V, W | Concentration, disruption, growth, long-term, Process, Psychology |
CVNA CCOI |
Recurve delivered 27% Q3 gross returns driven by concentrated positions in disruptive growth companies, particularly Carvana which comprises 39% of the portfolio despite being up 230% YTD. The manager remains highly convicted on the company's long-term prospects, viewing behavioral investor biases around volatile names as opportunity sources for patient capital. |
| Jul 19 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AMZN, AWI, CCOI, CVNA, NCLH, RH, TV, W, WMS | AI, Concentration, Furniture, small caps, Telecom, Used Autos, value, volatility | - | Recurve's concentrated portfolio delivered +17% net YTD returns driven by Carvana's +143% performance, though other holdings significantly underperformed. The fund now has 60% exposure in its top two positions. Manager remains focused on market-leading Builder Companies at attractive valuations while avoiding AI speculation, expecting higher volatility but superior long-term returns from this concentrated approach. |
| Apr 25 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AMT, AWI, CCOI, CVNA, SIRI | Concentration, Cruises, E-Commerce, growth, technology, value |
CVNA AWI CCOI |
Recurve delivered +13% net returns in Q1 through concentrated positions in category-leading companies trading at single-digit multiples of normalized free cash flow. Carvana remains the largest position despite 25x gains, while Armstrong was trimmed for cruise line redeployment. The strategy focuses on share-winning businesses with competitive advantages that can compound independently of macro conditions. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
OilOil represents the cheapest major asset class globally, trading at near-record lows relative to gold despite balanced fundamentals. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has created the largest supply shock in industry history, disrupting 20 million barrels per day. Non-OPEC supply growth is slowing dramatically, with U.S. shale production plateauing outside the Permian Basin. |
Crude Oil Brent WTI Shale OPEC |
Natural GasNatural gas ranks in the 99.5th percentile of historical undervaluation relative to equities. U.S. production growth has concentrated entirely in the Permian Basin, with other shale regions declining. Once the Permian's current gas production surge runs its course, supply growth should plateau and eventually decline, setting the stage for materially higher prices. |
Henry Hub LNG Permian Shale Gas | |
SilverSilver surged 51% in Q4 and over 140% for the year, staging a dramatic catch-up rally relative to gold. This magnitude of silver outperformance has historically marked important turning points, suggesting investors should consider reducing precious metals exposure in the short term despite the strong performance. |
Silver Gold Ratio Precious Metals | |
CopperCopper markets have moved back into surplus as evidenced by rising exchange inventories reaching 1.2 million tonnes. Despite strong Q4 performance with 17% gains, modeling suggests a prolonged period of surplus ahead. Current inventory levels represent approximately 17 days of global demand, placing them in the top 20% of observations over thirty years. |
Copper Base Metals Inventories | |
Platinum Group MetalsPGMs continued their powerful advance with platinum and palladium each surging 28% in Q4. Policy reversals in both the U.S. and Europe are unwinding the aggressive push toward electric vehicles, supporting longer-term demand for internal combustion engines and auto-catalysts. The bearish narrative built on rapid EV adoption is being rewritten. |
Platinum Palladium Auto Catalysts Electric Vehicles | |
UraniumSurging uranium demand is meeting a fragile supply base, creating fundamental tightness in the market. The uranium section discusses how demand growth is outpacing supply additions, though specific details are referenced for future coverage in the letter. |
Uranium Nuclear Supply Demand | |
| 2025 Q3 |
E-commerceCarvana continues exceptional execution with over 45% year-over-year growth in September quarter, exiting above 50% unit growth. The company is rapidly expanding variable roles in reconditioning and local delivery, with job openings up 60% over six months, signaling strong growth intentions months ahead of third-party data. |
Used Autos Auto Dealers Digital Transformation Growth Disruption |
LuxuryBrunello Cucinelli faced short attack over Russia sanctions compliance but manager views this as opportunity. Russia represents less than 2% of sales and company is fully compliant with EU sanctions. All major luxury companies continue limited Russian sales similar to Cucinelli. |
Luxury Goods European Luxury Sanctions Short Attack Opportunity | |
Trade PolicyComplex global trade and tariff environment creating unpredictable changes affecting RH and ELF primarily. Both companies showing best-in-class growth despite tariff impacts and have multiple options to offset tariff effects. Manager seeks stability in tariff policies for clearer positioning. |
Tariffs Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Consumer Impact | |
| 2025 Q2 |
E-commerceCarvana represents a disruptive e-commerce platform in the used auto market with industry-leading unit economics. The company has transformed from near-bankruptcy in 2022 to a high-quality secular growth story, demonstrating the power of purpose-built modern operating infrastructure that competitors cannot replicate. |
Used Autos Auto Dealers Digital Platform Unit Economics Disruption |
VolatilityThe manager embraces market volatility as an opportunity rather than avoiding it, using volatility spikes to take advantage of dislocations. This approach creates psychological comfort in accepting short-term performance swings while targeting above-market returns over the medium to long term. |
Market Timing Risk Management Opportunity Psychology Alpha Generation | |
GrowthThe portfolio focuses on disruptors with strong secular, share-gaining growth opportunities that deliver attractive growth in normalized earnings per share over medium to long-term horizons. Companies are selected based on their ability to generate significant customer surpluses and dependable growth. |
Secular Growth Share Gains Earnings Growth Customer Value Long Term | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe administration has launched a massive global tariff campaign utilizing executive branch emergency powers to unprecedented levels. The nature of these unilateral tariff policy changes, implemented with almost no notice, creates higher volatility and uncertainty. The fund has about 22% exposure to consumer goods companies with less than 20% direct tariff exposure, primarily through RH and ELF which have elevated exposure to China and Vietnam supply chains. |
Tariffs China Supply Chain Consumer Goods Policy |
E-commerceThe portfolio includes significant exposure to e-commerce and consumer-facing companies including Carvana at 43.5%, Amazon at 5.4%, and formerly Wayfair which was fully exited. The manager notes that Wayfair does not have a differentiated enough value proposition to be a secular winner and can only be an alpha winner by slightly outperforming its end market but is not disruptive enough to grow through choppier periods. |
Online Retail Marketplaces Consumer Digital Commerce | |
LuxuryThe portfolio includes positions in luxury companies RH at 9.7% and Brunello Cucinelli at 4.9%. RH is viewed as having potential for over $50 per share of earnings power as its product refresh and footprint expansion drive revenue growth. Brunello Cucinelli will see negligible tariff impacts due to enormous product margins where a 20% tariff on 10% product COGS can be offset with a 2% price increase, as the ultra-luxury consumer can absorb this with no negative elasticity effects. |
High-End Premium Margins Pricing Power | |
BeautyThe fund has a 4.8% position in e.l.f. Beauty, which is one of two new core additions to the portfolio since 2023. ELF is identified as one of the companies most directly impacted by tariff policies due to supply chain exposure to China and Vietnam, representing part of the fund's 14% exposure to companies in the crosshairs of tariff policies. |
Cosmetics Consumer Products Supply Chain | |
Data ServicesCogent Communications represents 16.5% of the portfolio and operates a utility-like business model that almost completely dodges tariffs. The company has accomplished something remarkable and unprecedented in building a new wavelength network that operates and scales as advertised, with real large customers using it and more onboarding daily. However, the sequencing of revenue generation has been slower than originally communicated, with meaningful revenues now expected in 2025 and beyond as the growth platform is built. |
Wavelength Network Infrastructure Telecommunications | |
| 2024 Q4 |
E-commerceCarvana is disrupting auto retailing with 1% market share in a fragmented market where the largest player has 2% share. The company offers superior retail experience and delivery services compared to 40,000 independent dealers. Wayfair is building a disruptive platform in home furnishings, bringing global suppliers to retail customers through its marketplace model with verticalized logistics capabilities. |
Auto Retail Marketplace Logistics Disruption Platform |
TravelCruise companies are disrupting the vacation market by offering extraordinary experiences at great value compared to land-based alternatives. With only 2% market share in vacations and less than 10% of Americans having taken a cruise, the sector has significant runway for growth as operators continue elevating asset quality and experiences. |
Cruises Vacation Experience Market Share Growth | |
LuxuryRH is disrupting the premium furniture market by curating tasteful collections and creating direct retail relationships for designer goods, eliminating expensive designer intermediaries. Brunello Cucinelli represents underpenetration in key markets like China, where it contributes only 12% of revenue compared to other luxury brands generating nearly 50% in the region. |
Premium Designer Brand China Underpenetration | |
| 2024 Q3 |
E-commerceCarvana represents one of the best disruptive growth stories in the market, disrupting the used auto industry with powerful flywheel effects and operating leverage from future growth. The company has no serious risk of competitive disruption on the horizon and is actually the disruptor in its industry. Despite being up significantly, the manager remains exuberantly positive about its future returns and risk/reward profile. |
Used Autos Auto Dealers Disruption Growth Flywheel |
Telecom InfrastructureCogent Communications is positioned as a complex but fascinating opportunity in a notoriously terrible industry for equity value creation. The manager believes it will not fall victim to the same poor outcomes as other wireline telecom companies. It requires significant analytical effort to understand but represents an amazing opportunity that will be a great investment for many years to come. |
Wireline Data Services Infrastructure Complexity Value Creation | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIManager views AI as a speculative, capital-intensive paradigm shift similar to the internet boom, requiring massive upfront investments without clear mass adoption or revenue models. Compares it to Field of Dreams investing where companies spend as if outcomes are foregone conclusions. Expects competitive dynamics to lead to value leaking to customers rather than generating monopolistic returns. |
Infrastructure Capex Speculation Competition Electricity |
Used AutosCarvana represents the fund's largest position at nearly 40% weight, having generated 143% YTD returns and 2,800 bps of performance attribution. The company has restarted growth after focusing on internal efficiencies, now generating industry-leading profitability and unit economics while growing volumes 30% year-over-year in a flat market. |
Market Share Unit Economics Profitability Growth Inventory | |
Telecom InfrastructureCogent is undergoing massive network transformation to optimize for its Wavelength business, which could become its largest segment over 3-5 years. The company offers unique risk/reward dynamics with predictable Sprint synergies and downside protection from non-core asset value while targeting disruptive growth in the upside scenario. |
Network Wavelength Synergies Assets Integration | |
Home FurnishingsRH and Wayfair investments lagged significantly, falling 15-20% YTD and detracting 400 bps of performance. The furniture category continues experiencing GFC-like conditions, though the manager notes their companies are outgrowing the broader sector despite the challenging environment. |
Furniture Consumer Cyclical Underperformance Recovery | |
| 2024 Q1 |
E-commerceCarvana is positioned as the market-leading pure-play e-commerce used auto retailer with only 1% market share in a large stable market. The company has significant future growth ahead with under-utilized fixed infrastructure that can leverage and grow into with additional labor. Carvana has embedded advantages across multiple dimensions because of its large-scale vertical production and logistics infrastructure. |
Auto Retail Used Autos Marketplaces Logistics Auto Dealers |
CruisesThe manager increased exposure to cruise lines after they started the year poorly, seeing them as having cheaper valuations and higher EPS CAGRs than Armstrong World Industries. The cruise companies were hitting YTD lows while AWI was hitting post-earnings highs, creating a compelling rebalancing opportunity. The cruise companies have since recovered over 20% of performance. |
Travel Cruises Value Entertainment |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Auto & Truck Dealerships | Specialty Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Automotive Retail, e-commerce, EBITDA multiple, growth, Low Cyclicality, Mass Consumer, Used cars | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | AWS, Cash Flow Reinvestment, Cloud computing, data centers, e-commerce, Platform business, technology infrastructure | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Aaron Chan | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive E-Commerce | Bull | NASDAQ | Autos, deleveraging, ecommerce, Operatingleverage, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | ELF | e.l.f. Beauty Inc. | Consumer Staples | Personal Products | Bull | NYSE | Beauty, Consumer products, Cosmetics, direct-to-consumer, market share gains, Millennial Demographics, value proposition | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Aaron Chan | CCOI | Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. | Communication Services | Alternative Carriers | Bull | NASDAQ | Bandwidth, FCF, Integration, Internet, Telecom | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Aaron Chan | RH | RH | Consumer Discretionary | Homefurnishings | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Brand, Luxury, Pricingpower, retail, tariffs | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | PAY | Paymentus Holdings Inc. | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NYSE | B2B software, Bill Payment, Cloud Technology, digital payments, Electronic Payments, Fintech, SaaS | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | BC | Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A. | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Bull | BIT | Artisanal, Cashmere, Global Luxury Market, Italian Fashion, Luxury goods, Premium Brand, Sustainable Luxury | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | RCL | Royal Caribbean Group | Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Bull | NYSE | Consumer Discretionary, Cruise lines, Leisure, market leader, Post-Pandemic Recovery, Tourism, Travel | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | CCOI | Cogent Communications Holdings Inc. | Communication Services | Alternative Carriers | Bull | NASDAQ | Communications, data centers, infrastructure, Internet Infrastructure, Network Services, secular growth, telecommunications | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | RH | RH | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | China exposure, double-digit growth, home furnishings, Luxury Retail, Premium Brand, Pricing power, tariffs | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | Consumer Surplus, debt restructuring, deleveraging, e-commerce, Free Cash Flow, Platform business, secular growth, turnaround, Unit economics, used car retail | Login |
| May 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | W | Wayfair | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bear | NYSE | Alpha vs Secular, Differentiation, e-commerce, exit strategy, Home goods, Industry Headwinds, market share | Login |
| May 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | CCOI | Cogent Communications | Communication Services | Alternative Carriers | Bull | NASDAQ | Complexity discount, data centers, dividend yield, infrastructure, leverage, secular growth, telecommunications, Wavelength Network | Login |
| May 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | RH | RH | Consumer Discretionary | Home Furnishing Retail | Bull | NYSE | China Exit, Earnings Power, home furnishings, Luxury Retail, supply chain, tariff impact, value opportunity | Login |
| Oct 15, 2024 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | CCOI | Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. | Communication Services | Alternative Carriers | Bull | NASDAQ | Complex Business, contrarian, Equity, founder-led, small-cap, telecommunications, Wireline | Login |
| Oct 15, 2024 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | Disruptor, e-commerce, Equity, Flywheel Effects, growth, operating leverage, Used Auto, vertical integration | Login |
| Apr 25, 2024 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | AWI | Armstrong World Industries Inc. | Industrials | Building Products | Neutral | NYSE | Building Products, Ceiling Systems, duopoly, Fair value, margin expansion, portfolio rebalancing, Pricing power, valuation multiple | Login |
| Apr 25, 2024 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | e-commerce, EBITDA multiple, market share growth, network effects, Operational Leverage, Scalable Infrastructure, turnaround, used car retail | Login |
| Apr 25, 2024 | Fund Letters | Recurve Capital | CCOI | Cogent Communications Holdings Inc. | Communication Services | Alternative Carriers | Bull | NASDAQ | asset monetization, fiber network, High Margin Revenue, IPv4 addresses, network infrastructure, Pricing power, Securitization, Wavelengths | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CVNA | Carvana is our most natural source of funds given its size in our portfolio, but I was not going to sell shares in March when they were trading at 20x 2026 EBITDA and <15x 2027 EBITDA while growing nearly 40% y/y – an especially impressive result during a quarter with difficult weather externalities. At these valuations I am a happy owner and more inclined to buy than to sell. |
| RCL | RCL is a prime example of our target: HSD/LDD revenue growth, >60% incremental margins vs. 40% current EBITDA margins, and an investment grade balance sheet that enhances capital returns to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, driving FCF/share CAGRs above 20%/year over a medium-term horizon. |
| CCOI | I was able to host Dave Schaeffer, Cogent's Founder & CEO, for a follow-up interview in mid-March. While my first interview with Dave focused on his background and his role as an entrepreneur and capital allocator, this conversation was much more about the major components of Cogent's business today, particularly its Sprint acquisition and the wavelength business. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
