Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st March 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
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| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
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Richie Capital Group argues that current fears about AI replacing human workers are exaggerated, drawing extensive historical parallels to past technological disruptions. The manager examines multiple historical examples from the Luddite Revolt through the Internet era, showing how each wave of technology initially displaced workers but ultimately created new categories of employment and raised living standards. Key examples include the Industrial Revolution transforming agricultural workers into factory employees, ATMs actually increasing bank teller employment by enabling branch expansion, and the Internet creating entirely new job categories while displacing others. The manager notes that AI has already created 1.3 million new jobs according to LinkedIn data, not including datacenter construction employment. They expect this technological disruption to follow historical patterns where productivity gains boost demand and create jobs, with humans migrating toward higher-value tasks requiring judgment, creativity, and relationship building. The analysis emphasizes American ingenuity and capitalism's ability to adapt and create value through technological progress.
Fears of AI eliminating human employment are overdone based on historical precedent showing that technological disruptions ultimately create more jobs than they destroy by raising productivity and enabling humans to move up the value chain.
Manager expects the current generation of AI technology disruption to follow historical patterns, with humans migrating up the value chain toward tasks requiring more judgment, creativity, and relationship building where they have durable advantages.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12 2026 | 2026 Q1 | AMZN | AI, disruption, Employment, innovation, productivity, technology | - | Historical analysis shows technological disruptions create more jobs than they destroy by raising productivity and enabling humans to move up the value chain. AI fears are overdone given precedent from Industrial Revolution through Internet era. Manager expects current AI disruption to follow historical pattern of initial displacement followed by new job creation in previously unimaginable categories. |
| Jan 11 2026 | 2025 Q4 | LEVI, WFC | AI, Bubble, Gold Rush, infrastructure, Investment Strategy, Speculation, technology | - | The manager sees an AI-driven market bubble but advocates for picks and shovels investing rather than direct AI exposure. Drawing parallels to the Gold Rush, the strategy focuses on durable service providers to the AI ecosystem rather than speculative AI companies themselves. This approach offers more sustainable revenue streams and lower risk if the AI boom falters. |
| Oct 12 2025 | 2025 Q3 | MSFT, NVDA, XOM | active management, AI, Market Concentration, Migration Effect, small caps, value creation | - | Small-cap outperformance comes from the migration effect - owning the 10% of companies that graduate to larger market caps. Despite AI mega-cap concentration and declining average small company quality, opportunities persist for active managers in an increasingly inefficient market. Richie Capital focuses on 15-20 high-quality businesses, finding opportunities early and holding as they scale. |
| Jul 13 2025 | 2025 Q2 | MCD, MO, PG | Debt, Fed, Fiscal, inflation, rates, Trade Policy, Treasury | - | Markets hit new highs betting Trump policies prove benign, but structural headwinds are building. Trade uncertainty limits corporate investment while unsustainable debt dynamics threaten the financial system. Net interest is now the third largest budget expense with debt-to-GDP approaching WWII levels. Rising Treasury yields increase borrowing costs economy-wide, pressuring asset values. |
| Apr 13 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ADM, DE, IBM, KO, X | Economic Outlook, Onshoring, Recession, Resilience, stock picking, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | Trump's tariff policies create significant economic uncertainty with anticipated slower growth, higher prices, and mild recession. Drawing parallels to historical disruptions, Richie Capital identifies resilient companies in essential sectors that survived past crises. Despite challenges, reshoring trends and supply chain restructuring create opportunities for selective stock pickers to identify winners in the new economic environment. |
| Jan 12 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | AI, Economy, fundamentals, inflation, interest rates, small caps, Valuations | - | Richie Capital Group maintains positive 2025 outlook despite stretched valuations, focusing on attractive small and mid-cap businesses with strong fundamentals. Expects earnings-driven growth supported by healthy consumer spending, strong employment, and AI-driven corporate investment. Emphasizes high-conviction, long-term approach with disciplined stock selection to navigate anticipated market froth and avoid unproven business models. |
| Oct 13 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | active management, concentrated, long-term, Quality, ROIC, small caps | - | Richie Capital Group focuses on investing in high-quality smaller companies through concentrated portfolios and long-term holding periods. They define quality through both quantitative metrics like high ROIC and qualitative factors including management strength and competitive positioning. The firm believes their experience-driven approach to identifying quality businesses early provides significant advantages for generating strong returns. |
| Jul 7 2024 | 2024 Q2 | CSCO, DAL, EXPE, HPQ, NVDA | AI, Bubble, Hype Cycle, Investment, Nvidia, technology, Telecom | - | Richie Capital Group warns that the current AI boom mirrors the telecom bubble, with excessive investment and unrealistic expectations around Nvidia and AI companies. While acknowledging AI's long-term potential, the manager believes true impact is 10 years away, not immediate, suggesting current market euphoria could lead to a significant correction. |
| Apr 7 2024 | 2024 Q1 | GOOGL, META, NVDA | Concentration, long-term, Outperformance, small caps, time arbitrage, value | - | Richie Capital Group leverages time arbitrage as their competitive edge, building concentrated portfolios of small-cap value stocks held for 3-5 years minimum. While extreme value opportunities like Buffett's 0.1x P/E Western Insurance deal are extinct, patient capital can still exploit short-term overreactions. Academic research and historical data validate their long-term, concentrated approach for superior returns. |
| Sep 4 2023 | 2023 Q1 | AMT, ATEN, COIN, FIX, MSCI, PERI | Advertising, Banking, Credit Crisis, Onshoring, small cap, technology |
PERI BUFIX ACGL|APH|COO|CSGP|DKNG|GWRE|IDXX|IOT|IT|LPLA|MSCI|MTD|PCOR|ROP|TECH|VRSK ATEN AMT |
RCG gained 12% in Q1 despite banking sector turmoil. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will permanently damage the innovation economy by reducing venture capital funding. The fund benefits from onshoring trends through Comfort Systems and AI-driven advertising via Perion Network. Rising rates hurt REITs like American Tower, but selective opportunities remain in structural growth themes. |
| Jan 3 2023 | 2022 Q4 | FICO, PERI, RELL | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIManager argues that fears of AI replacing all human capital are overdone, drawing historical parallels to past technological disruptions. Notes that AI has already created 1.3 million new jobs according to LinkedIn data. Expects this generation of technology disruption to follow historical patterns where humans migrate up the value chain toward tasks requiring judgment, creativity, and relationship building. |
Artificial Intelligence Employment Disruption Jobs Automation |
TechnologyProvides extensive historical analysis of technological disruptions from the Industrial Revolution through the Internet era, showing how each wave initially displaced workers but ultimately created new categories of employment. Emphasizes that technology raises productivity growth which boosts demand and creates jobs, with humans consistently moving to higher-value tasks. |
Innovation Disruption Productivity Employment Progress | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIMassive capex cycle linked to AI representing increasing cash flow from hyperscalers. Signs that AI adoption is flatlining with unclear use cases for profitability. Reliance on Magnificent 7 for equity market performance continues, with credit markets becoming increasingly sensitive to AI companies. |
Artificial Intelligence Hyperscalers Capex Technology Valuations |
GoldExceptionally strong performance with gold returning 65% for 2025 and silver 148%. Trend has continued into 2026 with gold rising 13.3% and silver 18.9% by end of January. Extreme moves following very strong performance last year. |
Precious Metals Safe Haven Inflation Hedge Commodities | |
CreditCredit spreads remained tight at historic levels with returns mainly generated by carry. Four of the largest credit issuers in 2025 were hyperscalers. Significant refinancing requirements in 2026 and 2027 should enable interesting trades both long and short. |
Credit Spreads Corporate Bonds Refinancing High Yield | |
Geopolitical RiskPresident Maduro taken from Venezuela, fracturing of Western alliance as Trump looked to acquire Greenland, protests in Iran violently suppressed. Tensions between countries may make cross-border transactions more difficult as countries favor national champions. |
Geopolitics Venezuela Iran Trade Policy National Security | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Small CapsThe migration effect shows that roughly 10% of small companies that grow into mid- and large-cap status explains most of small-cap outperformance. Despite concerns about quality decline in the Russell 2000, opportunities persist for active managers willing to do rigorous research in this less efficient market. |
Migration Effect Russell 2000 Active Management Market Inefficiency Quality |
AIThe market remains expensive and concentrated in a handful of mega-cap companies that all share the AI theme. This concentration creates opportunities for broader exposure that includes high-quality smaller companies outside the AI mega-cap universe. |
Concentration Mega Cap Market Expensive Nvidia Microsoft | |
| 2025 Q2 |
DebtU.S. national debt is growing faster than the economy, with net interest becoming the third largest budget expense. The debt-to-GDP ratio will hit record highs not seen since WWII within three years, creating an unsustainable fiscal situation that threatens the financial system. |
Debt Deficit Interest Fiscal Treasury |
Trade PolicyUncertainty around tariffs and trade policies is limiting corporate investment and planning. Companies are reluctant to place orders with countries subject to high tariffs, which will impact inventories and eventually lead to empty shelves, shipping delays, and higher prices. |
Tariffs Trade Policy Uncertainty Inflation | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve is more reluctant to cut interest rates due to lingering inflation concerns from unclear trade policy. Rising Treasury yields from increased debt issuance push up rates on mortgages, car loans, and corporate bonds, decreasing asset values. |
Rates Fed Treasury Yields Monetary | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe Trump Administration's tariff policies have created significant market uncertainty and economic disruption. The manager views the implementation strategy as flawed despite some worthy end goals, noting that unwinding three decades of globalization cannot be achieved in weeks or months. |
Tariffs Protectionism Globalization Trade War Economic Policy |
ResilienceDrawing parallels to the asteroid impact that caused mass extinctions 66 million years ago, the manager identifies companies with resilient characteristics that survived the 1929 crash and Great Depression. These include essential goods providers in food, healthcare, utilities, and entertainment sectors. |
Survival Essential Goods Crisis Management Defensive Adaptability | |
OnshoringCurrent reshoring trends are expected to continue under increased tariff regimes, potentially benefiting specialized manufacturing in the US. However, this will require expensive supply chain restructuring investments globally. |
Manufacturing Supply Chain Reshoring Investment Restructuring | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Small CapsValuations in small and mid-cap universe remain attractive relative to larger-cap peers. The firm plans to stick to their investment thesis of identifying attractive, under-the-radar businesses with strong fundamentals and robust cash flow generation. |
Small Caps Mid Cap Valuations Fundamentals Cash Flow |
InflationInflation appears tamed compared to the 9.1% peak in 2022, though still above the Fed's 2% target. The last mile to reach 2% may take longer than expected, potentially keeping interest rates higher for longer. |
Inflation Fed Target Interest Rates Monetary Policy | |
AIAI and reshoring are driving a surge in corporate and research spending, contributing to accelerating economic growth and supporting the positive outlook for 2025. |
AI Corporate Spending Research Economic Growth | |
| 2024 Q3 |
QualityRCG focuses on investing in high-quality businesses as a core pillar of their investment framework. They define quality through both quantitative metrics like high ROIC and consistent free cash flow, and qualitative factors including management strength, corporate culture, and competitive positioning. The firm believes quality investing provides significant advantages for generating strong returns over time. |
ROIC Cash Flow Competitive Advantages Management Balance Sheet |
Small CapsThe firm focuses on smaller, under-the-radar companies that are either already high-quality or on a trajectory towards becoming so. They note that the quality factor is especially pronounced in smaller market caps where high-quality companies tend to outperform lower-quality peers by wide margins. |
Under-the-radar Market Cap Outperformance Early Identification | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIThe letter extensively analyzes the current AI hype cycle, comparing it to the telecom boom and bust of the late 1990s and early 2000s. The manager expresses concern about overinvestment and unrealistic expectations, noting that while AI technologies show promise, the true impact is likely 10 years away rather than immediate. |
Artificial Intelligence Hype Cycle Overinvestment Technology Innovation |
| 2024 Q1 |
ValueThe letter extensively discusses value investing principles, referencing Warren Buffett's Western Insurance investment that traded at 0.1x P/E ratio. The manager emphasizes finding undervalued companies and exploiting market inefficiencies through patient capital deployment. |
Value Undervalued Discount Margin of Safety Cheap |
Small CapsThe firm explicitly focuses on smaller companies as a core investment philosophy. They believe smaller companies offer better opportunities for outperformance compared to large-cap stocks that are heavily analyzed. |
Small Cap Smaller Companies Concentrated Outperformance | |
| 2023 Q1 |
Credit StressThe collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Credit Suisse created a minor earthquake in the financial sector. The banking crisis will likely slow deal flow among VCs and stifle the innovation economy, with long-term implications for public markets as venture capital serves as the farm team for public equities. |
Banking Financial Crisis SVB Credit Suisse Venture Capital |
OnshoringComfort Systems is benefiting from positive tailwinds from trends in modular construction and American business reshoring. The company believes this is only the beginning of the movement towards reshoring as more businesses develop new facilities in the U.S. to overcome recent global supply chain challenges. |
Reshoring Manufacturing Supply Chain Construction | |
CryptoAs banks collapsed, the crypto economy rose with Bitcoin up 70% through Q1 and Coinbase rising nearly 80%. This implies cryptocurrency investors view crypto as a safer alternative to the banking system, though questions remain about who would bail out the crypto system in case of failure. |
Bitcoin Coinbase Banking Alternative Digital Assets | |
AdvertisingPerion Network, an Israeli ad-tech company, is benefiting from anticipation of Bing's new ChatGPT driven search engine. As Bing is Perion's largest customer, the new Bing offers meaningful growth opportunity as more users convert to the platform and drive publisher advertising revenue. |
Ad Tech Search Bing ChatGPT Microsoft |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2023 | Fund Letters | Richie Capital Group | PERI | Perion Network | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Ad Tech, ChatGPT integration, digital advertising, growth, Israeli Technology, Microsoft partnership, SaaS, Search & Advertising | Login |
| Apr 9, 2023 | Fund Letters | Richie Capital Group | BUFIX | Comfort Systems USA | Industrials | Construction & Engineering | Bull | NYSE | Construction services, Electrical Contracting, HVAC services, Industrial, M&A, modular construction, Order Backlog, Reshoring | Login |
| Apr 9, 2023 | Fund Letters | Richie Capital Group | ACGL|APH|COO|CSGP|DKNG|GWRE|IDXX|IOT|IT|LPLA|MSCI|MTD|PCOR|ROP|TECH|VRSK | MSCI Inc | Financials | Financial Exchanges & Data | Bull | NYSE | Climate data, compounder, Data Analytics, ESG Data, financial data, financial services, Index Provider, recurring revenue | Login |
| Apr 9, 2023 | Fund Letters | Richie Capital Group | ATEN | A10 Networks | Information Technology | Communications Equipment | Bull | NYSE | ADC, Application Delivery Controller, cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity, Edge computing, Enterprise Networking, Network Security, Software Transition | Login |
| Apr 9, 2023 | Fund Letters | Richie Capital Group | AMT | American Tower Corporation | Real Estate | Specialized REITs | Bull | NYSE | AFFO growth, Cell Towers, Data demand, long-term contracts, Price escalators, REIT, telecommunications infrastructure, Wireless Infrastructure | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon is the poster child for market disruption having displaced the traditional retail market, and yet Amazon employs almost 1.6 million people. |
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