| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 12.4% | 12.4% |
Rogue Funds declined 12.4% in Q1 2025 but manager Jacob Rowe expresses increased confidence in the portfolio heading into year three. The fund maintains a concentrated approach focused on catalyst-driven small-cap investments across uranium, biotechnology, data centers, and healthcare technology. Key holdings include ASP Isotopes, which has begun full production and expects significant revenue catalysts through Q4, and Global Atomic, benefiting from improved geopolitical conditions in Niger. The fund also holds Achieve Life Sciences, despite recent frustrations, with potential 5x-8x upside following upcoming clinical milestones. New positions include Biotricity, a healthcare technology company transitioning to an AI-focused SAAS model with pilot studies launching imminently. The portfolio has become more concentrated while removing all leverage due to expected macro volatility. Multiple catalysts are anticipated through August-September, with the manager expecting this could be the fund's best year despite continued high volatility from the concentrated positioning strategy.
Concentrated small-cap strategy focused on catalyst-driven investments in uranium, biotechnology, data centers, and healthcare technology with multiple near-term value inflection points expected over the next 6-9 months.
Manager expects third year of the Fund to possibly be the best year thus far with much more confidence in portfolio direction. Multiple catalysts expected through August/September timeframe with continuous stream of events through Q4. Volatility will continue but catalyst-driven strategy expected to separate returns from market despite being mainly long-only fund.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ACHV, ASPI, BTCY, COST, GLO.TO | Biotechnology, Concentration, Data centers, healthcare, small caps, uranium, volatility |
ASPI ACHV GLO.TO BTCY INTEG.ST COST |
Concentrated small-cap fund targeting catalyst-driven opportunities in uranium, biotech, and healthcare technology. Despite Q1 decline, manager shows high conviction with ASP Isotopes revenue catalysts, improved Niger dynamics for Global Atomic, and Biotricity's AI transition. Portfolio concentrated further while removing leverage ahead of expected macro volatility through September. |
| Jan 31 2025 | 2024 Q4 | ACHV, ASPI, AWRE, ECOR, GLO.TO, HAYPP.ST, MSV.AX, RADCOM | Biotechnology, Concentration, Data centers, nuclear, small caps, volatility |
ASPI ECOR ABXX ACHV GLO.TO |
Concentrated small-cap fund delivered 8.59% in Q4 with 71% since inception returns. Portfolio finally settled into core positions after extensive 2024 turnover. Largest holding ASP Isotopes benefits from nuclear growth and unique isotope production. Other key positions in medical devices, biotechnology, and data centers. Expects significant volatility but confident in 12-18 month catalysts across holdings. |
| Oct 20 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ACHV, AMD, ASPI, AWRE, ECOR, GLO.TO, MIS.AX, RDCM | Biotechnology, catalysts, Concentration, small caps, uranium, value | - | Concentrated small-cap fund declined 3.03% in Q3 after selling two Swedish positions for permanent losses. Manager deployed cash into two new high-conviction holdings, with ASP Isotopes and ElectroCore as top positions. Multiple catalysts expected across portfolio over next 12-15 months, including uranium financing, biotech trials, and technology scaling. Strong conviction in market-neutral appreciation ahead. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q1 |
UraniumFund holds ASP Isotopes which has begun full production and expects revenue from Silicon-28 and Ytterbium sales. HALEU enrichment capability positions them as the only viable option for the next half decade. Global Atomic benefits from improved Niger situation with Chinese companies kicked out and increased US presence. |
Nuclear HALEU Enrichment Niger TerraPower |
BiotechnologyAchieve Life Sciences showed zero safety concerns in long-term trial results but has been frustrating with delayed NDA filing to June. Company is extremely undervalued with 5x-8x upside potential and likely takeover target after July study results if positive. |
Clinical Trials NDA PDUFA Safety Takeover | |
Data CentersGreen Data Centers is a private investment expected to go public in Q3. Company is building battery and data center infrastructure with hyperscaler contracts, recently raised at $45mm valuation with potential $80mm round before IPO. |
AI Hyperscalers Infrastructure Battery IPO | |
Healthcare ITBiotricity manufactures three-lead heart monitors with 99% retention rate and has switched to AI-focused SAAS model. Pilot studies are weeks away from full ramp with potential for 10x-20x returns over 18-24 months despite small company size. |
Heart Monitor AI SAAS Pilot Studies FCF | |
| 2024 Q4 |
NuclearASP Isotopes is positioned to benefit from nuclear industry growth with deals with TerraPower and NECSA. The company is set to produce 10x more Silicon-28 than competitors and is the only producer in directly usable form. Global Atomic represents exposure to uranium mining despite development bank delays. |
Uranium Nuclear Isotopes TerraPower Silicon-28 |
BiotechnologyAchieve Life Sciences showed zero safety concerns in first trial results and has a yearlong trial wrapping up in July. The company expects NDA in Q2 2025 and PDUFA around Q4 2025/Q1 2026 with high chance of Priority Review as a breakthrough drug. |
Clinical Trials FDA Breakthrough Drug NDA PDUFA | |
Data CentersGreen Data Centers is building battery and data center infrastructure with hyperscalers including XAI and Google. The company has contracted nearly 900 acres in West Texas and is working with Spaceport America. Capital expenditures are set to increase despite market panic. |
Hyperscalers Infrastructure Battery Capex IPO | |
Medical DevicesElectroCore is a high growth, high margin business expected to hit profitability within 6 months while growing revenue at ~50% CAGR. New devices are beginning to scale and the NURO acquisition could be extremely accretive if approved. |
Profitability Growth Margins Acquisition Devices | |
| 2024 Q3 |
UraniumGlobal Atomic represents a significant uranium investment with multiple catalysts expected over 6-8 months. The company received official approval from Niger and awaits development bank financing. Despite geopolitical risks, uranium remains in deficit with prices expected to stay elevated. |
Uranium Nuclear Mining Niger Geopolitical |
BiotechnologyMultiple biotech positions including ElectroCore and Achieve Life Sciences. ElectroCore hit profitability while growing at 70% CAGR with new devices scaling. Achieve Life Sciences expects results in Q1 with potential NDA in 2Q 2025 and PDUFA around Q4. |
Biotechnology Medical Devices FDA Clinical Trials Growth | |
Small CapsPortfolio concentrated in small-cap companies across various sectors including mining, biotech, and technology. Manager emphasizes finding undervalued opportunities in smaller companies with strong growth potential and specific catalysts. |
Small Caps Value Concentration Catalysts Growth |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rogue Funds | COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | Consumer Staples | Hypermarkets & Super Centers | Bear | NASDAQ | Consumer Cyclical, Defensive Misconception, economic contraction, Portfolio Hedge, put options, retail, tariff impact, Valuation risk | Login |
| May 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rogue Funds | ASPI | ASP Isotopes | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | NASDAQ | HALEU, Isotopes, materials, Nuclear, Revenue Catalyst, Short squeeze, specialty chemicals, TerraPower, uranium | Login |
| May 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rogue Funds | ACHV | Achieve Life Sciences, Inc | Health Care | Biotechnology | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition target, biotechnology, clinical trial, drug development, FDA approval, NDA Filing, Smoking Cessation, undervalued | Login |
| May 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rogue Funds | BTCY | Biotricity | Health Care | Health Care Technology | Bull | NASDAQ | AI Healthcare, Cash Flow Inflection, Heart Monitor, medical technology, Pilot Studies, SaaS Conversion, small-cap, turnaround | Login |
| May 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rogue Funds | GLO.TO | Global Atomic | Energy | Uranium | Bull | TSX | Critical Minerals, DFC Partnership, geopolitical, Mining, Niger, strategic assets, uranium, US-Africa Relations | Login |
| May 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rogue Funds | INTEG.ST | Intellego | Industrials | Electronic Equipment & Instruments | Bull | Stockholm Stock Exchange | Contrarian Investment, Dosimeters, Fraud Allegations, Hospital Equipment, Industrial Measurement, Short squeeze, Swedish Equity, UV-C Disinfection | Login |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rogue Funds | ACHV | Achieve Life Sciences | Health Care | Biotechnology | Bull | NASDAQ | biotechnology, Breakthrough Drug, clinical trial, Cytisinicline, NDA, PDUFA, Priority Review, Smoking Cessation | Login |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rogue Funds | GLO.TO | Global Atomic | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | TSX | DFC Financing, geopolitical risk, Greenfield, Joint venture, Mining, Niger, Nuclear, uranium | Login |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rogue Funds | ASPI | ASP Isotopes | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | NASDAQ | cancer treatment, high-margin, medical isotopes, Nuclear, Production Advantage, Silicon-28, specialty chemicals, TerraPower Partnership | Login |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rogue Funds | ECOR | ElectroCore | Health Care | Health Care Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Bioelectronic medicine, High Growth, high-margin, Medical devices, NURO Acquisition, profitability, scaling, Warrant Dilution | Login |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rogue Funds | ABXX | Abaxx Technologies | Financials | Diversified Financial Services | Bull | TSX | asset value, Commodities, Exchange, financial services, LNG, Monopoly Potential, Nickel Sulphate, Singapore | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ASPI | ASPI has begun full production for all three of their plants and the stock price has re-rated positively in response. I believe that Silicon-28 will be sold in the coming weeks, and that Ytterbium will be sold at the end of Q2 or beginning of Q3. This will drive real revenue into the company and will also most likely lead to a serious catalyst in the stock price. I expect a TerraPower deal at any moment, and I believe it is highly likely before Q2 ends. The realization of revenue this quarter combined with a TerraPower deal will most likely have extreme upwards pressure on the stock price, which has a short interest of 35%. I expect Iceland to kick off within the next 3 months and QLE spinoff to happen in late Q3 early Q4. In Q3 I expect the NECSA MOU to finalize and lead to a kickoff of the uranium pilot plant. This is a continuous stream of massive catalyst events occurring all the way through Q4. Their ability to commission Ytterbium (along with their proof via revenue) will show high viability of their ability to enrich HALEU, becoming the only viable option for HALEU for the next half decade. This is easily our biggest position at this point, and I still believe it has a ton of upside despite the strong appreciation in the price already. When revenue begins hitting this quarter, I believe the sky's the limit with this position. |
| ACHV | The company released their first long term trial results in early January and showed zero safety concerns. Despite this being one of the more confident positions for us, it has been an extremely frustrating ride for the Fund and has caused a severe drag in performance that I am not proud of. The current valuation is frankly ludicrous. They delayed NDA filing to June and right after the NDA they will get the July results back, which I expect to be great. They will most likely have to push for a raise to get to PDUFA (likely Q2 of 2026 unless the FDA speeds up approval timelines). In the meantime, after the NDA I still expect a rise in the stock price as they are extremely undervalued to their market potential. After the July study results, if they turn out to be good, it will be very hard to see why they would not be an obvious take-out target. Even with a raise, I still expect the company to have 5x-8x upside from where they are today. |
| GLO.TO | Global Atomic finally slowed down mine construction and we have had a serious change in the underlying scenario for Niger. Since January, Chinese companies have been kicked out, the US has increased their presence in the country, Starlink was introduced to the country, the DFC reinitiated contact with the company, the US is pushing for integration into Africa with a peace deal with Rwanda and DRC including critical minerals, there is a huge push for bigger DFC influence, and all signs are looking towards GLO being included (and approved) on the next credit committee meeting. This would be an extreme catalyst on the stock that I believe could lead to an increase that is hard to fathom right now. They are still in talks with a JV but I believe that all signs point towards a GLO/DFC partnership with a small raise or royalty deal after CC approval. |
| BTCY | The company manufactures and sells a three-lead heart monitor and supplies technology that helps in predictability of heart related issues. It can be worn for 30 days and they maintain a 99% retention rate. The device is the best in its class, and they have grown at a solid 25%+ clip to $13mm in revenue that is likely to increase in the near future. In the fall of 2023/early 2024 they began switching their company to focus on providing AI benefits for their device and allowing for a TAAS/SAAS conversion which slowed down sales initially but has led to a large amount of pilot studies taking place. This SAAS conversion has allowed the gross margin to expand significantly, which I expect to continue through the year. They have a large debt load with a lot of convertibles and preferred stock but seem to have avoided bankruptcy. The pilot studies are key to the thesis and will allow for rapid revenue expansion, leading to highly accretive cash flow since their operating model has become extremely fixed. I believe there is a high chance by this time next year the company will be producing $25mm-$30mm in ARR with $6mm+ in FCF. Although there will definitely be dilution, if we assume a safe bet of 80% dilution (which I actually believe is much higher than what's realistic) we end up with a company trading at $20mm fully diluted ($40mm EV, not including paying off preferreds and debt) growing at 30%+ per year (and most likely even faster once they win these pilot studies) with a highly accretive FCF model, most likely newly refinanced debt, and the ability to pay down their term loans. The good news is that these pilot studies beginning full ramp are weeks away not months away and they are in an extreme inflection point. The company could begin to experience growth well beyond 30% and this would push the valuation to insane heights as a company like this should be trading at 8x revenue once they show an ability to produce consistent cash flow. We never take on companies this small, but the opportunity is too good to pass up and could lead to a 10x-20x in the next 18-24 months. |
| COST | I believe with the tariffs that Costco stock has barely been impacted but they are extremely vulnerable to recessionary scenarios and aren't as defensive as individuals believe. First, their consumer base is no longer as purely upper middle class as it used to be and will be more exposed to the cyclical nature of retail. Their 'sell in-bulk' nature makes this exposure much worse. Unlike Walmart, if I just got laid off, I don't need to go buy 50 rolls of toilet paper and this makes them much less defensive than Walmart and much more cyclical for low-income consumers (which has slowly made up more and more of their consumer base due to a very slow increase in annual fees). They are currently trading at 55x+ earnings, and I don't usually like to short cult stocks but with expected growth of 11% (I am highly skeptical of this number as they have only grown in the single digits since 2022) and an economic contraction on the horizon, it seems extremely likely to me that they will not be able to hold this valuation for much longer. If we take into account Canada boycotting American goods (Costco's second largest footprint outside of the US, having over 100+ stores) and probably ~8%-10% of goods coming from China along with a 10% tariff on 30% of goods, it is unlikely this bodes well for Costco over the next 9 months. Combining that with a lofty valuation (and no Charlie Munger to tout their horn), we could see a serious pull back. This is set up as a hedge for the portfolio and we will be fine if these expire worthless. |
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