Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 11.4% | - | 42.8% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 42.8% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 11.4% | - | 42.8% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 42.8% |
Rozendal Global Fund delivered exceptional 2025 performance with 42.8% returns, significantly outperforming the 22.6% benchmark return. The fund benefited from its long-standing underweight to US equities in favor of European and Emerging Market holdings, which delivered the strongest regional returns. Key contributors included Bayer's pharmaceutical recovery, Pepco's operational turnaround, and silver's speculative surge. The Materials sector experienced a dramatic reversal with 32.3% returns driven by precious metals, particularly gold reaching unprecedented inflation-adjusted levels. Despite launching the greatest trade war in modern times, global markets continued delivering strong returns, highlighting short-term unpredictability. The manager emphasizes their behavioral competitive advantage in holding positions uncomfortable for myopic investors, supported by recent academic research validating long-horizon investing. Gold appears extraordinarily expensive on all long-term value measures, driven by geopolitical concerns and record central bank purchases. The fund maintains focus on attractively priced assets rather than following current market manias, positioning for superior long-term results through patient capital deployment.
Long-term value investing approach focusing on behavioral competitive advantage by holding uncomfortable positions that myopic shareholders avoid, particularly in European and Emerging Market equities trading at attractive valuations relative to fundamentals.
The manager expresses confidence that owning attractively priced assets in the Rozendal funds is more likely to deliver satisfactory long-term investment results than owning gold at current elevated prices, though timing of sentiment change to restore gold to sensible levels cannot be forecasted.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 6586.T, AENA.MC, AMS.JO, BAYRY, BLU.JO, CGR.JO, COH.JO, DEO, HAR.JO, JD, KSPI.L, MTN.JO, SLV, TBS.JO, YRK.JO | emerging markets, Europe, gold, long-term, materials, Precious Metals, trade war, value | BAYN GR | Materials sector experienced sharp turnaround in 2025 with 32.3% returns, driven by unstoppable gold price and precious metals boom. Platinum group metals prices materially higher… |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
E-commerceThe portfolio maintains exposure to e-commerce platforms and enablement technologies through holdings like Amazon and Shopify. The fund views e-commerce as benefiting from secular shifts in consumer behavior and continued digital commerce adoption across retail categories. |
Platforms Digital Retail Consumer Technology |
GoldGold reached record highs above $5,000 per ounce but silver's dramatic rally has triggered a sell signal. Historical pattern suggests both metals may enter 2-3 year correction period. Central bank demand remained strong at 863 tonnes for 2025, though China purchases slowed significantly. |
Precious Central Banks ETFs Debasement | |
MaterialsMaterials sector experienced sharp turnaround in 2025 with 32.3% returns, driven by unstoppable gold price and precious metals boom. Platinum group metals prices materially higher than incentive prices after years of low investment. |
Gold Platinum Silver Precious metals Mining | |
PharmaceuticalsEli Lilly represents a high-quality growth franchise in global healthcare, with leadership in diabetes, obesity, and neuroscience providing durable competitive advantages. The company's GLP-1 treatments continue to see demand outpace supply with additional indications on the horizon. |
Pharmaceuticals GLP1 Diabetes Obesity Healthcare | |
Trade PolicyTrade policy dominated 2025 with surprise tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China igniting inflation fears and fracturing the post-WWII trade order. The administration threatened sweeping 125% tariffs in April, the highest U.S. tariff rates since 1935, before stepping back to bilateral deals. This policy uncertainty drove demand for tangible assets as hedges. |
Tariffs Trade War Bilateral Inflation Policy |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMS.JO | Mining conglomerate Anglo American sold and unbundled its majority interest in Anglo American Platinum ('Amplats') during 2024 and 2025. To mark the end of Anglo's ownership, Amplats changed its name to Valterra Platinum. There have been no major changes in operations or strategy at Valterra since leaving the Anglo stable. There has, however, been a major change in the price of the platinum group metals that Valterra produces. A change in Western governments' stances towards the electrification of motorised transport, and subdued production following years of low prices and limited investment by miners has finally resulted in PGM prices materially higher than incentive prices. The exceptionally high gold price has also dragged along platinum in its wake: platinum has some of the same store of value appeal as gold, and the two metals are to a limited extent substitutes for each other in jewellery production. The sharp metals price increase in the sector has lifted share prices across the sector dramatically. The four major PGM producers listed in South Africa (of which Valterra is the largest by PGM production volume) saw their share prices increase three to four times in the space of the year, and the Hedge Fund's Valterra investment hence contributed very pleasingly to returns for the year. |
| BAYRY | This pharmaceutical, agricultural and consumer health conglomerate has been a meaningful investment for the Global Fund for several years. Since inception, it has delivered very poor investment returns for the Fund. Happily, 2025 brought a change in fortunes for the company and the share price. Two of the key areas of investor concern about the company – a patent cliff in its pharmaceutical business, and ongoing costly litigation in its agriculture business – showed some very positive developments. In the former area, sales of some of its new drugs brought to market recently have been growing very strongly, and there were some very positive developments in the company's pipeline. In the agricultural business, there were finally judgements in the company's favour which have the potential to draw a line under the ongoing litigation. After dismal share price performances in 2023 and 2024, the Bayer share price approximately doubled during 2025. |
| BLU.JO | We first came to Cell C through Blue Label Unlimited (BLU). BLU remains a compelling opportunity, even if it has been an exceptionally volatile business to own over the last three years: we have seen the market capitalisation move from roughly R2.5bn to R15bn, and then back down to around R9bn today. BLU's core business is a high free-cash-flow, capital-light distribution operation, currently valued at roughly 4x FCF. In November last year, BLU listed Cell C by selling down its 95% stake. BLU proceeded with the IPO at a valuation of R9bn. Based on our estimates, that implied a c. 19% free-cash-flow yield — meaning new IPO investors would capture most of the discount, not BLU shareholders. |
| CGR.JO | Calgro M3 is a leading developer of affordable residential property. Its largest exposure is to Gauteng, where the residential property market has been weak. Out of caution and concern about potential disruptions around the 2024 national elections, the company had pulled back on the pace of development, which in turn has held back the delivery of completed units during 2025. The prospects for the South African residential property market have certainly improved in recent months. Calgro's share price is only likely to reflect this once there is tangible evidence of progress and success at the very large new Bankenveld development in the north of Johannesburg that it has embarked on recently. |
| COH.JO | Private school business Curro was a Covid recovery laggard that first became a standalone Hedge Fund portfolio investment during 2023 (the Hedge Fund held some indirect exposure to Curro via former parent company PSG Group in earlier years. Difficult business conditions have kept the share price rather depressed since then. In August 2025, the Jannie Mouton Foundation made an offer to acquire all Curro's shares in issue in exchange for a mix of Capitec and PSG Financial Services shares, as well as a small amount of cash. The implied value of this offer was far more than the prevailing share price, and the dramatic rise in Curro's share price to reflect this was a welcome contributor to the Hedge Fund's returns for the year. |
| DEO | Examples include Tidewater, Valaris, Constellation Brands, Diageo and Trex. We have discussed TDW and VAL previously, as well as STZ and DEO here. |
| HAR.JO | New positions were initiated in Harmony |
| JD | The difference in fortunes between the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets and JD.com's share price has been stark. Whereas the overall markets have been very strong, JD.com's share price declined during 2025. This is not on account of the fortunes of JD's core business: retail revenues and profitability have been growing strongly. The market concern reflected in the share price sprouts from JD's decision to invest heavily in a new food delivery venture in China. Here it will be competing against very large, very well capitalised incumbents like Meituan and Alibaba. The market is rightly concerned that this will prove to be costly and has punished JD's share price accordingly – at least in relative terms. |
| KSPI.L | As in the first half of the year (refer to our last investor letter), Kaspi's share price lagged in the second half of the year. Some market challenges in Kazakhstan only became visible in reported results during the latter half of the year, which resulted in more muted revenue and profit growth for Kaspi than what investors have historically been used to. New government smartphone registration requirements and iPhone shortages depressed e-commerce revenues (smartphones are a material revenue generator for most large online general merchandise retailers), whilst higher banking reserve requirements, a new tax on interest income and higher base rates payable on customer deposits depressed interest income on the banking side of the business. |
| SLV | The Global Fund has had an investment in silver – by way of the iShares Silver Trust exchange traded fund – for several years now. For much of this time, it served its purpose as a currency alternative and inflation hedge just fine. Strong industrial demand (mainly from the Chinese solar panel industry) coupled with constrained mine supply and the ever-increasing price of gold supported the silver price. But in the second half of 2025, the type of speculative mania which grips the silver market every decade or two suddenly erupted. By year-end, the inflation adjusted price reached levels in the vicinity of that seen during the infamous cornering of the silver market by the Hunt brothers in 1980. |
| TBS.JO | Venerable South African food producer Tiger Brands was a stock market darling during the mid-2010s, enjoying stellar share price ratings. But as with so many South African businesses, Tiger Brands went on an ill-considered foreign expansion strategy (into Africa, in Tiger's case) which cost it dearly. Equity investors lost confidence in the business, and the share delivered dismal returns in the decade leading up to 2024. Tjaart Kruger, a highly regarded industry veteran who led Premier Foods to great success in the decade during which Tiger's troubles were surfacing, was appointed CEO of the company late in 2023. The turnaround in the fortunes of the business since then has been spectacular. The share price has followed suit. |
| YRK.JO | York is the leading sawmill operator and plywood producer in South Africa by volume. However, it has been beset by perennial plant performance problems at its largest sawmill in Sabie, which it has yet to resolve. In addition, the global plywood market (York exports a material percentage of its plywood production) has weakened during the year. Demand (tied to US residential construction) has been under pressure, and the weakening US dollar has eroded the profitability of exports. The result has been a York share price which continues to languish at a deep discount to the value of its assets. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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