| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 12.2% | - | 4.5% |
The Rozendal Worldwide Flexible Prescient Qualified Investor Hedge Fund returned 4.5% in H1 2026, outperforming its benchmark which declined 3.0%. The period was characterized by an AI mania driving Information Technology returns of nearly 30% and an Iran war that caused oil prices to surge with 20% of global supply disrupted. The manager's avoidance of AI exposure hurt relative performance in the Global Fund but the Hedge Fund benefited from short gold positions as precious metals sold off on higher inflation and rate expectations. Key contributors included AECI, PPC, and Clientele (taken private), while detractors included Blu Label, Valterra Platinum, and Gemfields. The manager completed three investment cycles: Meta (31% IRR after holding from 2019-2020 through early 2026), silver (20%+ IRR as a currency alternative), and Curro (22% IRR including merger arbitrage). The letter emphasizes the importance of valuation discipline, noting that even sound assets can become overpriced in manias, and that contrarian opportunities must be grounded in careful long-term economic assessment rather than mere positioning against consensus.
Rozendal Partners is a valuation-based, contrarian investor that seeks opportunities in areas others shy away from, but only when prices relative to realistic long-term fair values are appealing. The firm emphasizes careful assessment of long-term economics rather than merely being contrarian for its own sake, and uses momentum signals in portfolio construction to time exits from positions that have become expensive.
The manager does not provide explicit forward guidance. The letter is primarily retrospective, analyzing H1 2026 performance and completed investment cycles. The tone suggests caution around current market valuations and speculation, particularly in AI-related assets, but no specific positioning changes or outlook statements are made.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30 2026 | 2026 Q2 | 7551.T, AFE.JO, BLU.JO, CLI.JO, GEM.L, HAR.JO, MDIA3.SA, META, NE, PPC.JO, PRX.AS, RNI.L, SESG.PA, VTP.JO | AI, contrarian, emerging markets, Iran War, Merger Arbitrage, Precious Metals, South Africa, value | - | Rozendal delivered strong absolute and relative returns in H1 2026 despite avoiding the AI mania that drove markets. The Iran war benefited energy holdings while precious metals shorts paid off as gold and platinum sold off. Three successful investment cycles closed including Meta at 31% IRR. The manager remains disciplined on valuation, selling silver and Meta after speculative run-ups, demonstrating that even contrarian value investors must respect price. |
| Jan 29 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 6586.T, AENA.MC, AMS.JO, BAYN.DE, BLU.JO, CGR.JO, COH.JO, DGE.L, HAR.JO, JD, KSPI.L, MTN.JO, SLV, TBS.JO, YRK.JO | gold, Long/Short, materials, Mining, Precious Metals, South Africa, value |
TBS SJ AENA SM 6586 JP |
Rozendal's Hedge Fund posted 21.7% returns but lagged the benchmark's 42.4% due to limited precious metals exposure. The South African market was driven by a tripling in precious metals prices, which the fund largely missed through modest positioning. Strong individual stock selection in Valterra Platinum, Tiger Brands, and Curro offset detractors, while the firm maintains conviction in their long-term value approach. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AFM.L, ASR.JO, BLU.JO, CCOLA.IS, COH.JO, HCI.JO, HL.L, KSPI.L, MEO.DE, MTN.JO, NE, NPK.JO, OCE.JO, PRX.AS, SES, WINE.L | emerging markets, Mining, private equity, South Africa, tariffs, Telecommunications, Turkey, value | - | Strong H1 2025 performance driven by underweight US positioning and successful stock selection. Completed profitable Turkish investment cycle during hyperinflationary period. Telecommunications holdings delivered exceptional returns in South Africa. Successfully exited geopolitically risky mining position before operational disruption. Multiple private equity takeouts validated investment approach. Maintains bottom-up focus despite tariff-induced market volatility. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AFE.JO, BLU.JO, BUR.L, GRT.JO, HCI.JO, JD, META, NE, PIK.JO, PPC.JO, SES, SHP.JO, TBS.JO, TSCO.L | Case Study, commodities, global, Hedge Fund, retail, South Africa | - | Rozendal's hedge fund returned 5% in 2024, underperforming due to limited exposure to strong South African sectors. The manager completed profitable wheat futures trades and exited Burford Capital. Mixed South African results included Tiger Brands restructuring success offset by gaming sector struggles. An extensive grocery retail case study highlights the importance of operational discipline and capital allocation in driving long-term shareholder returns. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 0700.HK, B4B.DE, BAYN.DE, CGR.JO, HCI.JO, HL.L, KSPI.L, MDIA3.SA, META, MTN.JO, NPK.JO, NPN.JO, PPC.JO | global, Hedge Fund, Passive investing, South Africa, Turnarounds, value | - | Rozendal's funds delivered mixed H1 2024 results, with the Global Fund underperforming due to avoiding US tech while the Hedge Fund declined 4.4%. The managers defend value investing against passive investing critiques, arguing that cash flow generation and patient capital deployment remain viable despite slower multiple expansion in current markets. |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | B4B.DE, BAYN.DE, BMT.JO, BUR.L, CCJ, CCOLA.IS, COH.JO, MTN.JO, PPC.JO, RCL.JO, TBS.JO | Currency, emerging markets, small cap, South Africa, uranium, value | - | Rozendal delivered strong 2023 returns driven by uranium exposure and selective stock picking. The managers favor emerging market debt over US debt given superior fundamentals and completed a successful investment cycle in Bowler Metcalf. Despite challenging South African conditions including electricity shortages, they continue finding opportunities in undervalued small cap businesses globally. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | B4B.DE, BLU.JO, BUR.L, CCJ, HCI.JO, META, OCE.JO, PPC.JO, RCL.JO, SAHG.JO, SDRY.L, TBS.JO | Diamonds, healthcare, Litigation, South Africa, technology, Turkey, uranium | - | Rozendal delivered strong H1 2023 performance led by Meta's cost-cutting recovery, Burford's litigation victory, and uranium exposure via Cameco. South African holdings faced consumer pressure and loadshedding challenges. The firm completed multiple investment cycles with mixed results and continues developing its litigation funding strategy while maintaining disciplined bottom-up value investing approach. |
| Dec 31 2022 | 2022 Q4 | BLU.JO, BUR.L, GPL.JO, META, NBLB, OCE.JO, QUIN.SN, SPU.JO, TBS.JO, YRK.JO | activism, crypto, emerging markets, energy, gaming, Long/Short, South Africa, value | - | Rozendal's Hedge Fund generated 12.0% returns in 2022 by avoiding technology and bonds while benefiting from energy and value outperformance. Successful activist involvement in Grand Parade delivered 19.9% IRR over five years. The fund maintains its value-focused, geographically diversified approach, finding better opportunities outside expensive US markets. |
| Jun 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | AMS.JO, IMP.JO, LKOH.L, META, MNZS.L, MTN.JO, NPN.JO, PPC.JO, PSG.JO, WINE.L | commodities, energy, inflation, Platinum, South Africa, takeovers, technology, value | - | Rozendal delivered strong relative performance during tumultuous H1 2022, outperforming by 13.6% through defensive positioning and takeover situations. Completed successful decade-long platinum mining cycle with 100%+ IRRs while technology holdings like Meta suffered from sector rotation. Russian sanctions impacted Lukoil position. Value-oriented approach provided downside protection amid broad market selloff and multi-decade high inflation. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIThe letter describes an AI mania driving markets in H1 2026, with Information Technology delivering nearly 30% returns. The manager explicitly avoids AI exposure, stating the Global Fund's weak relative return largely reflects the absence of exposure to the artificial intelligence theme. Meta's capital expenditure on AI has grown to $125 billion in 2026, several multiples of what was committed to the metaverse. |
Technology Semiconductors Data Centers Cloud |
Semiconductor CycleEmerging Markets and Asia were standouts driven by several large semiconductor businesses benefitting from a memory chip demand upcycle the likes of which has hardly been seen before in the history of these businesses. This is directly tied to the AI infrastructure buildout. |
Memory Asia Taiwan | |
OilThe Iran war caused huge upheaval in the global oil market. With approximately 20% of global oil effectively taken off the market due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price surged in Q2 2026. This benefited the Energy sector which returned 16.6% for the six months and supported holdings like Noble. |
Iran Energy Geopolitics | |
GoldThe impact of higher oil prices reset market expectations higher for inflation and central bank interest rates, which triggered a sharp sell-off in gold. The Hedge Fund's short gold exposure supported returns. The manager views gold as expensive on metrics like its own long-term inflation adjusted price and price compared to production cost. |
Precious Metals Inflation Rates | |
SilverSilver served as a currency alternative in the Global Fund from mid-2020 to mid-2025, maintaining its inflation adjusted value with some volatility. In late 2025, silver got caught up in a speculative mania, with the inflation-adjusted price reaching levels not seen since the Hunt brothers cornering in 1980. The manager sold the position as it became expensive, delivering an IRR of greater than 20% per annum. |
Precious Metals Commodities Speculation | |
MomentumMomentum as an investment style delivered spectacular returns for the six months at 40.6%. The manager notes this points to a market where excitement and speculation has been the dominant sentiment. The manager uses momentum in portfolio construction, as evidenced by the Meta holding where the turn in momentum in late 2025 was the final trigger for complete sell down. |
Factor Speculation Risk Appetite | |
ValueThe manager is a valuation-based investor who invests because prices relative to realistic long term fair values are appealing. The letter emphasizes careful assessment of long-term economics rather than merely being contrarian. Value as a factor returned 12.2% for the six months, in line with the broader market. |
Factor Valuation Contrarian | |
VolatilityVolatility as an investment style (buying low volatility stocks) fared very poorly in H1 2026, returning only 2.2%. This corroborates the idea that the global market is filled with excitement and speculation, with events like the largest IPO ever (SpaceX) supporting this view. |
Factor Risk Speculation | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI was a dominant market driver of U.S. stocks and continues to influence market leadership. The AI-driven rally led to historic levels of market concentration with just five stocks accounting for nearly 45% of the S&P 500's total return in 2025. Strong AI-related investment was the backbone of U.S. growth in 2025. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Market Concentration Growth |
RatesThe Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 1.75% since 2024, easing financial conditions and supporting markets. The Fed resumed rate cuts in September and markets expect further easing into 2026, albeit at a slower pace. Historically, equities have responded favorably following the restart of easing cycles. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Easing | |
InflationThe inflation storm that dominated recent years appeared to be easing, at least in the short term. November and December inflation surprised to the downside, easing investor concerns about persistent inflation pressures. However, inflation is likely to remain above target near term. |
Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Data | |
DollarThe U.S. dollar fell over 9% in 2025, pressured by a high starting valuation and mounting concerns about global investor concentration in U.S. assets. With the Federal Reserve still focused on easing policy, narrowing interest rate differentials may drive a further decline in the dollar. |
Currency Dollar Weakness International | |
| 2025 Q2 |
TurkeyManager completed exit from all Turkish investments including Migros Ticaret, Sabanci Holdings, and Coca Cola Icecek. Turkish investments were initiated during macroeconomic turmoil in 2019-2020 when President Erdogan's unorthodox monetary policies created hyperinflation but also drove strong equity returns. The hyperinflationary environment benefited food retailers and beverage companies while challenging banks. All three Turkish investments delivered strong returns with IRRs of 16.4% to 23.1%. |
Turkey Hyperinflation Emerging Markets Macroeconomic Currency |
TariffsDonald Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement caused significant market volatility with the S&P 500 declining nearly 19% and VIX spiking above 30. However, historical analysis suggests tariffs have relatively minor long-term impacts on GDP, inflation, and equity markets. Manager maintains focus on bottom-up investment process rather than macro events that are often headline-grabbing in short term but less significant long-term. |
Tariffs Trade Policy Volatility Macro Trump | |
MiningAlphamin was a successful tin mining investment in Democratic Republic of Congo that delivered 15.2% IRR before being sold due to escalating regional conflict risks. The company operated world-class Bisie tin complex with favorable supply-demand dynamics. Manager emphasizes importance of managing geopolitical risk through appropriate position sizing and quick reaction when conditions deteriorate. |
Mining Tin Geopolitical Risk Africa Commodities | |
TelecommunicationsStrong performance from telecom holdings Blue Label Telecoms and MTN contributed significantly to hedge fund returns. Blue Label benefited from clarity around Cell C transformation, while MTN gained from Nigerian economic stabilization and regulatory approval for price increases. Telecommunications was one of only three subsectors delivering market-beating returns in South African market. |
Telecommunications South Africa Nigeria Transformation Regulation | |
Private EquityMultiple portfolio companies were taken private by insiders or private equity investors, including Metro AG and Hargreaves Lansdown. While Hargreaves Lansdown delivered 40% IRR when taken private at premium to fair value, Metro AG was acquired at discount to manager's valuation. Manager notes that insiders sharing their view of value is positive validation, though such exits sometimes don't provide full value to minority shareholders. |
Private Equity Takeovers Buyouts Valuation Exits | |
| 2024 Q4 |
WheatManager completed profitable short wheat futures position after Russia-Ukraine war disruption. Wheat prices reached extreme levels due to supply disruption and fertilizer cost pressures, but reverted as expected when high prices encouraged new production and conservation land cultivation. |
Commodities Agriculture Supply Disruption Futures Ukraine |
South AfricaMixed performance in South African holdings with Tiger Brands benefiting from CEO restructuring efforts and PPC supported by Government of National Unity optimism. However, traditional gaming businesses like HCI and Goldrush struggled with weak consumer environment and online competition. |
Emerging Markets Consumer Gaming Restructuring Politics | |
GrocersExtensive analysis comparing Pick n Pay and Shoprite over 35 years reveals how governance, cost structure, and capital allocation decisions drove divergent outcomes. Shoprite's focus on low prices and aggressive reinvestment contrasted with Pick n Pay's higher costs and generous dividends. |
Retail Consumer Staples Competitive Dynamics Capital Allocation Case Study | |
| 2024 Q2 |
ValueThe letter extensively discusses value investing challenges in current markets, including David Einhorn's assertion that passive investing has broken traditional value strategies. The managers defend value investing as still viable through cash flow generation and patient capital deployment, despite mean reversion taking longer. |
Value Mean Reversion Passive Investing Multiples Cash Flow |
Passive InvestingDetailed analysis of passive investing's impact on market efficiency and value investing. The managers conclude that while passive investing may have some effect on mean reversion timing, its impact on market efficiency is likely overblown and creates opportunities for patient fundamental investors. |
Passive Investing Market Efficiency Index Funds Capital Allocation | |
| 2023 Q4 |
UraniumThe uranium market has finally come to life after being moribund for a decade following Fukushima. Disruptions from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, slow return to production of mothballed mines, steady continuation of new reactors being built in China, and greater recognition of uranium's clean energy benefits have contributed to dramatic price surges. Uranium prices recently achieved levels last seen at the heights of the commodity super-cycle in 2007. |
Nuclear Energy Transition Commodities China Russia |
Emerging marketsEmerging market debt offers a more favorable combination of macroeconomic support and relative pricing than US debt. The US has far more public sector debt relative to GDP, worse net international investment position, slower growth, and greater budget deficits than emerging markets. Despite this macroeconomic evidence against the US dollar, it has appreciated strongly in trade weighted real effective terms. |
Debt Macroeconomics Currency Government Bonds | |
South AfricaThe difficult macroeconomic environment in South Africa from 2010 onwards has been challenging for businesses. Progressively worse electricity blackouts eventually overwhelmed management's ability to adapt, resulting in sharp declines in operating profits for energy-intensive businesses like plastic conversion. Load shedding continued to wreak havoc on operating hours and cost structures across industries. |
Electricity Infrastructure Economic Environment | |
| 2023 Q2 |
LitigationRozendal invests in litigation funding through RLF with 3% allocation to the Hedge Fund. First completed investment was the Randgold case which earned 1.9% IRR. The field remains nascent with attractive opportunities for third party capital due to limited competition and high barriers to entry. |
Litigation Legal Funding Alternative |
UraniumWest moving away from Russian uranium supplies benefits suppliers like Cameco from other countries. Steady increase in countries viewing nuclear energy favorably following Russia-Ukraine electricity market disruptions. Utilities concluding longer term purchase contracts after years of dithering. |
Uranium Nuclear Energy Commodities | |
DiamondsNatural diamond industry faced challenges from synthetic competition and supply increases, but large high-quality stones like those from Letseng mine remain sheltered from synthetic pressure. Industry capex declined sharply which should constrain future supply and support prices. |
Diamonds Mining Luxury Commodities | |
TurkeyTurkish companies like Sabanci struggle to earn returns above elevated inflation rates, meaning equity value slowly eroding. Turkish banking sector including Akbank suffered in US dollar terms during first half of year. |
Turkey Inflation Banking Emerging Markets | |
South AfricaSouth African companies face strained consumption environment and unreliable electricity from loadshedding. Few companies like Oceana benefit from consumers trading down to cheap proteins that don't require refrigeration. Premium branded goods producers like Tiger Brands bear full brunt of consumer financial pressure. |
South Africa Loadshedding Consumer Electricity | |
| 2022 Q4 |
ValueEnergy and Value continued outperformance which started in first half of 2021. The fund benefited from being invested very differently from major benchmarks, avoiding technology sector exposure. Value investing approach emphasized buying at discount to fair value and activist involvement to unlock value. |
Value Discount Undervalued Fair value Mispricing |
EnergyEnergy sector delivered strong performance with 34.5% returns in 2022. Oil industry gained confidence that prices will stay closer to $80 per barrel rather than $50 range. Offshore drilling rigs being contracted in increasing numbers with stronger rates for operators. |
Energy Oil Drilling Offshore Commodities | |
CryptoBitcoin more than halved in 2022, with speculative coins experiencing complete meltdowns. Despite bitcoin's superior 10-year performance versus global equities, the fund avoided crypto due to inability to assess fair value and concerns about speculative environment. |
Crypto Bitcoin Speculation Valuation | |
GamingGrand Parade Investments, a South African gaming company, was a stellar performer delivering 19.9% IRR over five years through activist involvement. Gaming industry faced challenges during Covid but recovered with strong bidding war for Grand Parade assets. |
Gaming Casinos South Africa Activist | |
| 2022 Q2 |
Platinum Group MetalsCompleted decade-plus investment cycle in platinum miners Anglo American Platinum and Impala Platinum. Industry experienced seven lean years from 2011-2018 due to oversupply, recycling, and weak demand, followed by spectacular recovery driven by palladium and rhodium price increases. Sold final positions after achieving 100%+ IRRs as industry reached top-of-cycle indicators including rising costs, peak capex, and M&A activity. |
Platinum Palladium Rhodium Mining Commodities |
EnergyEnergy sector was standout performer in first half 2022, delivering 15.4% returns while most sectors declined. Russian oil and gas supply constraints from Ukraine invasion drove energy prices higher, benefiting energy companies. Lukoil position marked to zero due to sanctions making Russian shares untradeable. |
Oil Gas Energy Russia Sanctions | |
TechnologyTechnology sector experienced severe selloff with Information Technology declining 29.6% in first half 2022. Meta Platforms fell 25% on single day due to TikTok competition, Apple privacy changes, and first-ever decline in daily users. High-quality tech blue chips not spared from broader tech rout that extended beyond speculative names. |
Technology Meta Growth Valuations | |
InflationMulti-decade high inflation levels reached in many developed markets, with some experiencing highest rates in 40 years. Historical analysis shows weak correlation between instantaneous inflation and long-term equity returns. Current inflation driven by geopolitical factors like Ukraine war makes short-term forecasting difficult, but history suggests not necessary for good long-term investment decisions. |
Inflation Interest Rates Monetary Policy | |
ValueDramatic reversal in market leadership with Value/Energy sectors outperforming while Growth/Tech/Quality spectrum underperformed severely. Meta and other former high-flying growth stocks removed from Russell 1000 Growth Index and included in Russell 1000 Value Index alongside traditional value names like Berkshire Hathaway and Exxon Mobil. |
Value Growth Factor Rotation | |
TakeoversMultiple portfolio companies received takeover bids including John Menzies (airport ground services) and Mediclinic International (private hospitals). Bids provided welcome protection during market turmoil, with John Menzies share price doubling from £3 to almost £6. Takeover activity demonstrates value recognition by strategic buyers. |
M&A Takeovers Value Recognition |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Wilhelm Hertzog | TBS SJ | Tiger Brands Ltd | Consumer Staples | Packaged Foods | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Execution, Food, management, South Africa, turnaround | Login |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Wilhelm Hertzog | AENA SM | Aena S.M., S.A. | Industrials | Airport Operators | Neutral | Brasil Bolsa Balcão | Airports, Cove Recovery, infrastructure, Regulation, valuation | Login |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Wilhelm Hertzog | 6586 JP | Makita Corporation | Industrials | Power Tools | Neutral | New York Stock Exchange | Cyclicals, Industrials, Inventory, Margins, Mean Reversion | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 7551.T | Nextage is one of Japan's leading used vehicle retailers. The industry went through an existential crisis in 2023 and 2024 due to an insurance fraud scandal at one of the major competitors in the industry. The industry was also coming off the cyclical boom in used vehicle sales following the supply disruptions in the new vehicle market caused by Covid. Nextage navigated all these challenges adeptly, and its share price has climbed dramatically – aided by the tailwind of a soaring Japanese stock market. |
| NE | The Iran war has caused huge upheaval in the global oil market. With c.20% of global oil effectively taken off the market due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price surged in the second quarter of this year. A surging oil price drags along all companies in the industry in its wake – oil drillers like Noble included. |
| SESG.PA | The major space and satellite-related news of the first half of this year was of course the listing of SpaceX. SES has been a longstanding holding in the Global Fund. As a legacy satellite operator, its business prospects have been more muted than what the market associates with the likes of SpaceX and its Starlink business. However, so infectious has been the enthusiasm for everything space-related in the market recently that share prices have risen almost indiscriminately. SES went along for the ride. |
| PRX.AS | After a very strong performance in 2025, the share price of Tencent (still by far the largest asset in the Prosus stable) swooned in the first half of 2026. Market perception appears to be that Tencent is behind the leaders in artificial intelligence in China – and spending to catch up, but without tangible results yet. Growth rates for the business have also moderated somewhat from the levels the market was used to in the past. This has pulled the share price of Tencent – and hence Prosus – lower. |
| MDIA3.SA | After a decade or more of being loved by the market as high quality, defensive businesses that perpetually deliver market-beating investment returns, most of the consumer staples industry has now gone through a multi-year period of derating. M Dias Branco has not been immune to this ongoing derating. The disruption to energy markets from the Iran war inevitably also finds its way into input costs for consumer staples businesses, which pressures margins – and the associated inflation pressures consumer spending. This challenging combination has been readily evident in the share price of M Dias Branco so far this year. |
| RNI.L | Rupert-controlled investment holding company Reinet effectively turned itself into a cash shell with the disposal of its major investments British American Tobacco and Pension Insurance Corporation during 2025 and 2026. There were great expectations in the market that this presaged the winding up of the company or a material return of capital – which would deliver appealing returns to investors, given the meaningful discount to net asset value that the stock had been trading at. When no announcement to this effect was forthcoming with the release of the company's recent results, the market was gravely disappointed – and this disappointment was unleashed on the share price. |
| AFE.JO | The appointment of a new CEO and strong demand for mining explosives has kindled some new enthusiasm for leading explosives and chemicals business AECI. The positive results of a simplification of the group following the disposal of several non-core businesses are also now becoming apparent. |
| PPC.JO | PPC is also a company where the results of a new management team and focused restructuring and cost cutting are now becoming evident in very impressive fashion. The recovery in profit margins in the face of a stagnant South African cement market has been striking, and the market has rewarded the company's shares for this. |
| CLI.JO | As a long-term insurance provider in the lower end of the South African market, Clientele has faced challenges from both a South African consumer under pressure and fierce competition from new entrants to its market – notably Capitec. The share price historically more than reflected these pressures, and management and the controlling shareholders of the business recently used the opportunity to make an offer to take the company private. As usual with these bids, the price offered was far higher than the prevailing share price (hence the contribution to the Hedge Fund's return for the period), but below our estimate of fair value. Fortunately, the Hedge Fund was able to retain its (now unlisted) Clientele shares, so we have not had to conclude the investment cycle in Clientele just yet. |
| HAR.JO | Given the sharp move lower in the gold price so far this year, it comes as no surprise that a short position in gold miners have been profitable. Being short Harmony in 2025 was painful. The experience in 2026 so far has been more pleasant. |
| BLU.JO | Blu Label's share price has been on a roller coaster ride over the past 18 months. The share had a spectacular run up in mid-2025 as the market became excited about a restructuring of the group and a listing of key asset Cell C finally coming to fruition. This excitement has gradually petered out as the realities of an intensely competitive South African mobile communications market have hit home. |
| VTP.JO | On the flip side of Harmony within the Fund's precious metals holdings, Valterra Platinum's share price suffered as the platinum price decreased in tandem with the gold price this year. |
| GEM.L | Gemfields is a small holding in the Fund, but it has faced business challenges on a grand scale. Competitive pressure in the emerald market has abated but not disappeared. The security situation around its Mozambican ruby operations is unstable, resulting in escalating problems with illegal mining. The building of a second wash plant at its ruby operations – the largest single capital project ever undertaken by the company - has suffered setbacks in achieving full commissioning. And the company's balance sheet is under pressure. These problems have been reflected in both a lower share price, and the departure of the CEO. |
| META | Meta has been a fantastic investment for the Global Fund. It delivered an internal rate of return of 31% per annum over its holding period, compared to the benchmark's 13% odd. The manager purchased Meta shares in 2019-2020 when the company faced controversies around disinformation and data privacy, trading well below $200 per share. The company overcame challenges from TikTok and Apple's ATT policy. During 2024 and 2025 Meta returned to breathtaking employee costs and eye-watering capital expenditure on AI, with capex rising from $4.5 billion in 2016 to a guided $125 billion in 2026. The share traded at times more than double fair value estimate. The manager sold completely in December 2025 and January 2026 when momentum turned negative. |
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