Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 30th June 2026
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This letter presents a philosophical framework for investing during periods of technological change, drawing on David Deutsch's theory of knowledge creation. The manager argues that progress occurs when societies protect the freedom to criticize existing ideas and pursue better ones. Businesses create value by applying knowledge to solve customer problems, with durable businesses combining hard-to-replicate advantages (moats) with adaptability. The manager examines how newspapers lost their moats when the internet changed industry economics, while Amazon maintained its position by continually improving its solution to enduring customer wants. On artificial intelligence, the manager acknowledges AI's transformative potential but notes high uncertainty about which business models will endure and how value will be captured. NVIDIA's existing hardware, CUDA ecosystem, and developer relationships represent testable advantages, but any thesis must address competitive threats and valuation. The manager emphasizes that good investment theses use explanation to form expectations without requiring detailed predictions, connecting business advantages to long-term cash generation while remaining open to criticism as new evidence emerges.
Businesses create value by applying knowledge to solve customer problems, and durable businesses combine hard-to-replicate knowledge (moats) with the ability to adapt as conditions change.
The manager emphasizes that dynamic societies allow people to continually create new knowledge, but neither the content of that knowledge nor the changes it will bring can be predicted in detail. Investors must therefore allocate capital without knowing precisely how a business or its industry will evolve. AI does not overturn the investment framework but makes good explanations, attractive prices, and a willingness to correct mistakes all the more important. The tone is measured and philosophical, emphasizing uncertainty while maintaining confidence in the investment process.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20 2026 | 2026 Q2 | AMZN, NVDA | Adaptability, AI, Business Moats, Investment Philosophy, Knowledge Creation, Technological Change, Value Investing | - | Saga Partners presents a knowledge-based investment framework emphasizing businesses with hard-to-replicate advantages and adaptability. The manager views AI as transformative but highly uncertain for investors, preferring to wait until business models and competitive advantages become clearer. Amazon exemplifies adaptability through continual improvement, while NVIDIA's existing ecosystem provides testable advantages. The approach prioritizes explanation over prediction, attractive prices, and willingness to correct mistakes. |
| Apr 17 2026 | 2026 Q1 | TTD | Compounding, Concentration, drawdowns, long-term, value | TTD | Saga Partners experienced a 23% drawdown in Q1 2026 but maintains long-term outperformance since inception. The manager views current market pessimism around holdings like The Trade Desk as creating attractive opportunities, arguing that AI concerns are overblown and competitive advantages remain intact. He expects current holdings to compound capital attractively over the long term despite short-term volatility. |
| Dec 4 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, BRK-A, CVNA, F, GM, GOOGL, META, MGI, MSFT, NFLX, RDFN, RKT, ROKU, SPOT, TRUP, TTD, WISE.L, WMT, WU | Advertising, disruption, E-Commerce, growth, payments, Platform, Streaming, technology | - | Saga Portfolio delivered 52.2% returns in H2 2024, driven by strong execution from core technology holdings including Carvana's margin expansion, Roku's platform dominance, and The Trade Desk's programmatic advertising growth. The owner-operator approach focuses on resilient businesses with superior customer value propositions that can compound value faster than traditional metrics suggest, despite periodic volatility. |
| Sep 4 2024 | 2024 Q2 | TRUP | Concentration, long-term, Pet Care, Philosophy, value | TRUP | Saga Portfolio returned 39.4% in H1 2024 through concentrated positions in undervalued companies with durable advantages. Trupanion exemplifies the approach - a differentiated pet insurer with superior value proposition and significant growth runway in an underpenetrated market. The strategy prioritizes long-term wealth creation over short-term price movements. |
| Apr 20 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AMZN, COST, CVNA, EXPI, GDRX, GOOGL, KMX, KO, LAD, META, NFLX, RDFN, ROKU, TTD, UA, VZIO, WMT, Z | Concentration, E-Commerce, long-term, technology, value, volatility | - | Saga Portfolio delivered 204.6% returns in 2023 after severe 2022 drawdown. Manager maintains conviction in core holdings Carvana, Redfin, and Roku, which demonstrated operational improvements and path to profitability despite challenging conditions. Strategy focuses on long-term intrinsic value of misunderstood companies rather than short-term price movements. Believes current positioning offers attractive risk-adjusted returns. |
| Aug 1 2024 | 2023 Q4 | CVNA, LGIH, META, RDFN, ROKU, TRUP, TTD | Concentration, growth, Long-only, Quality, technology | - | Saga Partners runs a concentrated 5-10 stock portfolio focused on quality companies with competitive advantages and owner-oriented management. After devastating 2022 losses, the fund rebounded strongly in 2023 with 204.6% returns. Current holdings span technology and consumer sectors including Meta, Roku, and Carvana, reflecting a growth-oriented approach to long-term value creation. |
| Apr 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | CVNA, LGIH, META, RDFN, ROKU, TRUP, TTD | Concentration, consumer, growth, technology, value | - | Saga Partners runs a concentrated 5-10 stock portfolio targeting high-quality companies with durable advantages and owner-operator management. Despite strong 140% YTD returns in 2023, the strategy has underperformed the S&P 500 since 2017 inception with significant volatility including an 85% drawdown in 2022. |
| Jul 7 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AAPL, ADBE, AMZN, CMG, CPRT, CRM, GOOGL, HD, HEI, MA, META, MSFT, NFLX, NOW, ORLY, ROKU, TDG, TJX, TSCO, V | Concentration, innovation, long-term, Streaming, technology, volatility | - | Saga Portfolio rebounded 117% in H1 2023 after 85% decline in 2022, validating concentrated secular trend investing approach. Manager targets companies in transitional innovation phases where winners emerge but face uncertainty. Roku positioned to benefit from streaming TV consolidation around operating systems. Maintains conviction through extreme volatility, focusing on long-term competitive advantages over short-term price movements. |
| Feb 16 2023 | 2022 Q4 | CVNA, RDFN | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIAI is economically transformative but highly uncertain for investors. Current models do not yet demonstrate the ability to create explanatory knowledge (AGI threshold). The technology may improve or automate many tasks, making existing knowledge cheaper to apply, but it remains unclear which business models will endure, whether leading AI models will remain proprietary, and how economic value will be divided among customers, technology suppliers, and businesses applying it. |
Artificial Intelligence AGI GPUs Large Language Models ChatGPT |
MoatsDurable businesses require hard-to-replicate knowledge that competitors cannot easily reproduce. Examples include LTL carriers with dense terminal networks and accumulated operating knowledge, and NVIDIA's hardware, CUDA software ecosystem, and developer relationships built over decades. A moat earned through customer choice does not prevent competition but makes the company difficult to displace, surviving only while the incumbent continues providing enough value to retain customers. |
Competitive Advantage Barriers to Entry Network Effects Pricing Power | |
E-commerceAmazon recognized that the internet could give people access to a much larger selection of products and make them easier to find and compare. The company expanded from books into other categories while remaining focused on enduring customer wants: greater selection, lower prices, and faster delivery. This culture of continual improvement has encouraged Amazon to revise or replace existing methods in pursuit of the same customer wants. |
Amazon Customer Focus Selection Delivery | |
| 2026 Q1 |
AIThe manager discusses AI disruption as a headline risk affecting markets and specifically analyzes its potential impact on The Trade Desk. He argues that AI could strengthen rather than weaken platforms like The Trade Desk by improving campaign planning, optimization, and measurement, while advertisers would still need platforms to coordinate across the fragmented open internet. |
Advertising Automation Platforms Disruption Technology |
AdvertisingExtensive discussion of programmatic advertising through The Trade Desk analysis. The manager explains the value proposition of independent demand-side platforms versus walled-garden DSPs, competitive dynamics with Amazon's DSP, and the structural advantages of neutral platforms for buying advertising across the open internet. |
Programmatic DSP Open Internet Competition Platforms | |
| 2024 Q4 |
E-commerceCarvana demonstrates a superior customer value proposition versus traditional dealerships with a structurally lower cost model at scale. The company has achieved industry-leading unit economics with gross profit per unit reaching $6,900 in 2024, up from $3,000 in 2022, while maintaining high Net Promoter Scores. |
Online retail Digital transformation Customer experience Unit economics Marketplace |
StreamingRoku continues to execute well in driving platform adoption as the clear leader in the U.S. TV OS market, reaching more than half of all U.S. broadband homes with 90 million streaming households. Connected TV advertising is still in early stages as viewership has shifted from linear to streaming but ad budgets have been slower to follow. |
Connected TV Operating systems Platform business TV advertising Cord cutting | |
AdvertisingThe Trade Desk benefits from the shift to programmatic advertising over the open internet as advertisers move away from walled gardens. The company has emerged as the dominant independent demand-side platform, processing $12 billion in ad spend in 2024 within the ~$200 billion open internet market. |
Programmatic Digital advertising Ad tech Open internet Demand-side platform | |
PaymentsWise has built a global network of local bank accounts and direct connections to payment systems in over 160 countries, enabling cheaper, faster cross-border money transfers. The company processed £137 billion in 2024, making it the third-largest cross-border transfer company globally. |
Cross-border Fintech Money transfer Banking infrastructure Cost efficiency | |
Pet CareTrupanion implemented price increases to restore margins after veterinary cost inflation accelerated faster than expected. Margins began to recover in 2023 and reached record levels by the end of 2024, with adjusted operating income increasing 40% year-over-year to $114 million. |
Pet insurance Veterinary costs Insurance pricing Margin recovery Subscription model | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Pet CareTrupanion represents a differentiated approach to pet insurance, targeting a 71% payout ratio versus industry standard of 50-60%. The company has built an integrated solution through vertical integration, sophisticated pricing, and a unique Territory Partner distribution model. With only 3% of US and Canadian pets insured, there is significant runway for growth. |
Pet Insurance Veterinary Distribution Underwriting Territory Partners |
ValueThe manager emphasizes finding companies with durable competitive advantages selling at attractive prices relative to prospects. The approach focuses on companies that solve hard problems through integrated solutions, often misunderstood by traditional value investors who prefer capital-light models. These companies typically emphasize low prices and build capabilities over years or decades. |
Competitive Advantage Integrated Solutions Undervaluation Long-term Moats | |
| 2024 Q1 |
E-commerceCarvana represents a complete transformation of used car retail through integrated e-commerce infrastructure. The company has built an irreplicable network of inspection centers, logistics, and financing operations that enables seamless customer experience. Despite 2022 challenges, Carvana demonstrated profitable unit economics and reached positive EBITDA in 2023. |
Used Autos Auto Retail Logistics Auto Finance Automation |
Real Estate ServicesRedfin is positioned to benefit from industry disruption following the NAR settlement and changing commission structures. The new Redfin Next agent compensation model reduces fixed costs while enabling rapid scaling. The company offers lower commissions and superior technology platform compared to traditional brokerages. |
Real Estate Services Technology Commission Agent Platform | |
StreamingRoku has established itself as the dominant TV operating system in the US with 40% streaming hours market share. The platform benefits from network effects and economies of scale as it reaches 80 million active accounts. Management expects continued monetization growth as advertising dollars shift from linear to connected TV. |
Streaming Operating System Advertising Connected TV Platform | |
ValueThe manager emphasizes finding companies trading below intrinsic value due to market misunderstanding or temporary challenges. Meta Platforms exemplified this approach, falling from $190 to $90 before recovering as fundamentals improved. The strategy focuses on long-term earning power rather than short-term price movements. |
Intrinsic Value Misunderstood Long-term Fundamentals Contrarian | |
| 2023 Q4 |
E-commerceThe portfolio includes multiple e-commerce and digital commerce companies including Carvana (online auto sales), Redfin (real estate platform), and Trade Desk (digital advertising). These companies represent the ongoing digital transformation of traditional commerce sectors. |
Digital Platform Online |
| 2023 Q2 |
StreamingConnected TV has moved into the transitional phase where the market has chosen winners who are scaling products with rising barriers to entry. The real value will move to TV operating system aggregators rather than content suppliers, with Roku positioned to benefit from its growing market share approaching half of US households. |
Connected TV Operating System Aggregation Advertising Scale |
Innovation CyclesIndustries experience waves of innovation through fluid, transitional, and specific phases. The transitional phase offers the best mispriced opportunities as winners emerge but face uncertainty about future economics. Companies in this phase typically spend heavily on R&D and growth infrastructure, masking true economics. |
Disruption Technology Adoption Market Consolidation Competitive Advantage | |
AIArtificial intelligence will have a big impact on the economy but remains in the fluid phase of its life cycle. Understanding how AI technologies will evolve into specific products and identifying winners remains highly uncertain, similar to trying to forecast the automobile industry in 1900. |
Machine Learning Technology Disruption Uncertainty | |
ConcentrationThe Saga Portfolio maintains concentration in seven or eight stocks, primarily focused on top five or six positions. This approach balances investing in top ideas while limiting risk from any single position permanently impairing the portfolio, despite creating higher short-term volatility. |
Portfolio Construction Risk Management Selectivity Conviction |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Fund Letters | Saga Partners | TTD | The Trade Desk | Advertising Agencies | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | adtech, AI, digital advertising, DSP, Equity, Independent, Open Internet, platform, programmatic advertising | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Saga Partners | TRUP | Trupanion Inc | Financials | Insurance | Bull | NASDAQ | Claims Processing, distribution network, Low-cost Provider, Payout ratio, pet insurance, Subscription, Territory Partners, underwriting, vertical integration, Veterinary | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon provides a useful contrast. Jeff Bezos recognized that the internet could give people access to a much larger selection of products and make them easier to find and compare. Amazon's retail business expanded from books into other categories while remaining focused on enduring customer wants: greater selection, lower prices, and faster delivery. Those goals have no obvious endpoint. They give Amazon a reason to keep investing in fulfillment, software, logistics, and new services while developing new knowledge about how to serve customers better. That culture of continual improvement does not make Amazon immune to disruption, but it has encouraged the company to revise or replace existing methods in pursuit of the same customer wants. |
| NVDA | NVIDIA shows that an AI-related investment thesis can rest on knowledge and competitive advantages that already exist. Its hardware, CUDA software ecosystem, and relationships with developers embody knowledge accumulated and tested over decades. Those advantages may help explain why NVIDIA has captured substantial value from the growth of AI, but any thesis would still need to address whether alternative chips and computing architectures could weaken its position. It would also need to judge whether its expected future earning power offers an attractive return at its current market price. |
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