| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
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| - | - | - |
LENS ETF delivered exceptional performance in its inaugural year, returning +56.79% NAV since launching in late January 2025, significantly outpacing broad equities. The fund's Return to Tangibles thesis proved prescient as precious metals led a commodity resurgence amid trade policy turbulence and persistent inflation concerns. Gold and silver reached new all-time highs, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying, accommodative policy, and dollar weakness. The manager's thematic approach through Geopolitical & Fiscal Risk, Energy is Life, and Build the Future sub-themes enabled active positioning as market leadership shifted. Trade wars dominated the year, with tariff threats reaching levels unseen since 1935 before moderating to bilateral negotiations. The portfolio benefited from contrarian overweighting in tangible assets while traditional markets struggled with policy whiplash. Looking ahead, the manager views 2025 as merely the beginning of a multi-year secular trend, expecting commodity leadership to broaden beyond precious metals in 2026 as structural forces continue unfolding.
The Return to Tangibles represents a multi-year secular shift where real assets serve as the foundation of prosperity, driven by structural forces including persistent inflation, elevated geopolitical and fiscal risks, and global infrastructure development needs.
The manager maintains conviction that the Return to Tangibles is a multi-year secular theme that has only just begun. 2025 is viewed as merely Act I of a much longer story, with structural forces of higher inflation, elevated geopolitical and fiscal risks, and continued global infrastructure building still unfolding. The expectation is for 2026 to see the commodity complex broaden out beyond precious metals.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | commodities, Geopolitical, gold, inflation, Mining, Silver, Tangibles, Trade Policy | - | Gold reached new all-time highs in 2025, finishing the year up approximately 60% driven by elevated geopolitical uncertainty, central bank gold buying, accommodative monetary and fiscal policy, persistent inflation concerns, and a weaker U.S. dollar. The manager views this as part of a multi-year super-cycle comparable to the 1970s and 2000s gold bull markets. Silver reached new all-time highs in Q4 2025, breaking through records last set in 1979. Silver led the year-end rally in precious metals and was a key contributor to the fund's Geopolitical & Fiscal Risk sub-theme performance throughout the year. Copper mining positions performed well as part of the Build the Future sub-theme, benefiting from the broader commodity rally and industrial demand. The manager expects copper to potentially show leadership in 2026 as the commodity complex broadens out beyond precious metals. Trade policy dominated 2025 with surprise tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China igniting inflation fears and fracturing the post-WWII trade order. The administration threatened sweeping 125% tariffs in April, the highest U.S. tariff rates since 1935, before stepping back to bilateral deals. This policy uncertainty drove demand for tangible assets as hedges. Persistent inflation concerns were a key driver of precious metals performance throughout 2025. The manager views higher for longer inflation as one of the structural forces supporting the Return to Tangibles thesis, alongside elevated geopolitical and fiscal risks. Commodities experienced a resurgent year led by precious metals, with the manager noting that commodities are at historical lows relative to the S&P 500. The expectation is for 2026 to see the commodity complex broaden out with energy and industrial metals beginning to show leadership alongside precious metals. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
CommoditiesBull market may be in early stages with most commodities 46% below nominal peaks and 73% below inflation-adjusted highs. Commodity-to-equity ratio near historic lows suggests capital starvation. Current cycle appears only one-third complete compared to historical precedent. |
Cycles Capital Valuation Equities |
CopperMarket shifted from deficit to surplus as Chinese demand stalled for first time in 25 years while supply expanded by 3 million tonnes since 2021. Exchange inventories reached 1.2 million tonnes, highest since 2003. Bearish outlook as China transitions from under-consuming to over-consuming copper. |
Base Metals China Inventories Surplus | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
SilverSilver surged 220% since April 2024, generating powerful sell signal for precious metals. Performance mirrors 1979 parabolic blow-off that marked end of gold bull market. Retail demand peaked with reports of long lines at dealers globally before recent 40% decline from highs. |
Precious Parabolic Retail Blow-off | |
Trade PolicyRecent tariff policies continued to negatively impact U.S. consumers and companies throughout the year. However, international companies have been finding new trade arrangements and growth opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global trade patterns as the new U.S. administration alters terms of international cooperation. |
Tariffs International Growth Cooperation Impact |
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