| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -22.28% | -12.89% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| -12.9% | 63.9% |
Sigil Core delivered -22.28% net returns in Q4 2025 but outperformed BTC benchmark by 1.2%. The fund significantly de-risked 40% of the portfolio due to unfavorable risk-reward environment and structural headwinds including supply overhang and incentive misalignment. Despite regulatory tailwinds from the Trump administration, crypto struggled with macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The fund eliminated BTC and ETH exposure for the first time, maintaining defensive positioning while ready to redeploy capital. Key themes include the convergence of DeFi and TradFi as financial markets move on-chain, representing Fintech 2.0. The industry is experiencing necessary consolidation similar to post-dot-com era, with market leaders expected to cement dominance. Forward Industries (FWDI) remains a core holding trading at discount to SOL treasury. The fund expects to enter the Slope of Enlightenment phase with sustainable growth as crypto matures into productive technology and asset class.
Crypto is transitioning from experimental phase to mature asset class requiring tangible utility, with current market correction representing necessary cleanup before sustainable growth phase.
The fund expects to enter the Slope of Enlightenment phase with sustainable growth as crypto becomes a mature, productive technology. Market consolidation will favor leaders with established moats, similar to post-dot-com era where few big winners provided outsized returns. The industry will fragment with some segments merging with traditional capital markets while others become invisible backbone of digital economy.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10 2026 | 2025 Q4 | FWDI | Bitcoin, Blockchain, crypto, De-risking, DeFi, Digital assets, Fintech | FWDI | Sigil Core de-risked 40% of portfolio in Q4 amid crypto market correction, eliminating BTC/ETH exposure while maintaining readiness for redeployment. Despite regulatory tailwinds, structural headwinds including supply overhang and poor tokenomics created unfavorable risk-reward. Fund expects industry consolidation to favor quality projects with real utility, positioning for next growth phase. |
| Nov 3 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA | earnings, emerging markets, gold, growth, liquidity, rates, small caps, technology | - | Equities surged in Q3 2025 driven by exceptional liquidity dynamics rather than euphoria, with mega-cap technology stocks pushing market concentration to record highs. Emerging markets and gold led global gains while labor market softening prompted Fed rate cuts. Strong momentum may continue into year-end despite stretched valuations and macro uncertainties. |
| Jul 13 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, Central Banks, equities, fixed income, global, Markets, rates, Trade Policy |
CRCL HOOD COIN MSTR |
Global markets surged in Q3 2025 on AI optimism, Fed rate cuts, and easing trade tensions. US equities delivered best Q3 since 2020 while emerging markets gained double digits. Despite government shutdown risks and stretched valuations, resilient earnings and supportive monetary policy create constructive long-term outlook for diversified portfolios. |
| May 14 2025 | 2025 Q1 | DPLM.L, HARV.HE, LOTB.BR, POOL | Compounding, growth, Quality, Roiic, value | HOOD | The Compounding Tortoise delivered +10.08% year-to-date through a fully invested portfolio focused on sustainable quality compounding. The fund targets companies with high returns on incremental invested capital exceeding 20-25% that can compound at double-digit rates through execution rather than financial engineering. Strong EBITA per share growth of +14.8% underpinned performance despite FX headwinds. |
| Feb 18 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | adoption, Bitcoin, Crypto Equities, Ethereum, volatility | - | |
| Oct 22 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | AI Agents, Bitcoin, DeFi, ETFs, institutional adoption | - | |
| Jul 25 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | Bitcoin, DeFi, liquidity, Prediction Markets, Venture Capital | - | |
| May 9 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | Crypto ETFs, NFTs, Stablecoins, Token Unlocks, Web3 Gaming | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
CryptoManager views crypto as entering a mature phase after the hype cycle, with structural headwinds including supply overhang and incentive misalignment. Despite regulatory tailwinds, the market failed to generate meaningful returns in 2025. The fund de-risked 40% of portfolio and holds 0% BTC/ETH exposure for the first time. |
Digital Assets Bitcoin Ethereum DeFi Blockchain |
Capital MarketsFinancial markets are moving on-chain at an accelerating pace with convergence between DeFi and TradFi. Manager sees this as the birth of 'Fintech 2.0' and is actively deploying capital into this vertical, including high-conviction position in Canton blockchain network. |
Fintech Tokenization DeFi TradFi Blockchain | |
Data PrivacyOn-chain privacy is moving from a niche to a necessary feature. Manager sees dual push for private solutions from both anti-system individuals seeking wealth protection and institutional players who cannot operate on transparent public ledgers. Next cycle will reward protocols offering programmable privacy. |
Privacy Cryptography Institutional Compliance | |
Risk AppetiteManager took defensive positioning by de-risking 40% of portfolio in Q4, moving outside standard 10-30% cash allocation bounds. This represents the most conservative positioning in fund's history, driven by unfavorable risk-reward ratio and structural market headwinds. |
De-risking Cash Defensive Portfolio | |
| 2025 Q3 |
LiquidityStrong underlying demand and robust liquidity supported equity resilience despite seasonal headwinds. Robust ETF inflows, near-record corporate buybacks, and limited selling pressure created Volume Demand exceeding Volume Supply by one of the widest margins since 2021. |
ETF Inflows Buybacks Volume Demand Supply |
EarningsEarnings momentum drove performance in growth stocks and small-caps. Global earnings momentum has stabilized with forward growth trends indicating limited acceleration, while corporate profit growth has slowed alongside weakening labor demand. |
Momentum Growth Profit Forward Acceleration | |
GoldGold led emerging market gains and was among the best-performing assets. Metals and Mining led all industries with a 127% surge in Gold, while Steel and Copper also posted strong advances. |
Metals Mining Surge Advances Performance | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIContinued enthusiasm for AI drove strong performance in growth stocks and technology sectors during Q3. AI-related themes fueled investor appetite and contributed to the best third quarter performance for major US indices since 2020. |
Technology Growth Innovation Semiconductors Software |
Trade PolicyTrade tensions eased during Q3 as negotiations progressed and retaliatory threats diminished, supporting rotation into international equities. However, President Trump threatened fresh tariffs on China over rare earth export controls, maintaining uncertainty despite market adaptation to higher tariffs. |
Tariffs China International Policy Negotiations | |
RatesCentral bank rate decisions shaped market dynamics with the Fed restarting its cutting cycle in September with a 25bp reduction. The ECB held steady at 2.0% while the Bank of England cut to 4.0% in August, creating divergent monetary policy paths across regions. |
Federal Reserve ECB Bank of England Monetary Policy Easing | |
| 2025 Q1 |
QualityThe manager emphasizes sustainable quality compounding through companies with high returns on incremental invested capital (>20/25%). They focus on businesses that can compound capital at double-digit rates through strong ROIIC rather than financial engineering. The letter discusses what can break quality investment theses, including poor capital allocation and management teams not understanding the ROIIC framework. |
ROIIC Compounding Capital Allocation Value Creation Free Cash Flow |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2026 | Fund Letters | Joe | FWDI | Forward Industries, Inc. | Financials | Diversified Financial Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Digital Assets, discount, Mnnav, Solana, Staking, Treasury | Login |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Fund Letters | Joe | COIN | Coinbase Global, Inc. | Financials | Financial Exchanges & Data | Bear | NASDAQ | Competition, Correlation, Exchanges, Execution, Revenue, Volatility | Login |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Fund Letters | Joe | MSTR | Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy Incorporated) | Software | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Bitcoin, Capital markets, Flywheel, leverage, premium, Treasury | Login |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Fund Letters | Joe | CRCL | Circle Internet Group, Inc. | Financials | Financial Exchanges & Data | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Adoption, Fintech, Payments, Regulation, stablecoins, Treasury | Login |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Fund Letters | Joe | HOOD | Robinhood Markets, Inc. | Financials | Investment Banking & Brokerage | Bull | NASDAQ | Brokerage, Crypto, Derivatives, Execution, growth, Tokenization | Login |
| May 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Joe | HOOD | Robinhood Markets, Inc. | Financials | Investment Banking & Brokerage | Bull | NASDAQ | Brokerage, Crypto, Integration, Tokenization, Volumes | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| FWDI | Sigil Stable's less-than-ideal performance in Q4 was primarily driven by our hedged exposure to Forward Industries as the company's market cap closed the year more than 30% below its SOL reserves. The current position represents less than 1% of the portfolio and remains hedged. Forward is generating over 6% APR by staking its SOL. We expect part of the mNAV gap to close this year and reprice toward at least 0.85, which would support PnL even if SOL depreciates. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
