Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | 0.3% | 5.1% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 5.1% | 4.8% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | 0.3% | 5.1% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 5.1% | 4.8% |
The Smead Value Fund returned 0.30% in Q4 2025 versus 2.66% for the S&P 500, with healthcare stocks like Merck and Amgen leading performance as sector valuations recovered from earlier discounts. Homebuilders remained the primary detractors due to higher rates and increased inventory, though the managers view their capacity to maintain construction activity as a competitive advantage during cyclical downturns. The fund maintains a concentrated value approach designed for long-term returns, positioning as contrarians who are fearful when others are greedy. The managers believe current market conditions mirror historical extremes, with the Wilshire 5000 trading at 220% of GDP and 40-year S&P 500 returns at record highs. They expect the passive index to deliver negative returns over the next decade, similar to 1998-2009, while deeply discounted sectors like healthcare, energy, and homebuilders benefit from capital rotation away from overvalued growth stocks. Despite headwinds, the strategy delivered positive absolute returns in 2025.
The fund maintains a concentrated value approach, positioning as contrarians who are fearful when others are greedy, believing current market extremes mirror historical bubbles and that deeply discounted sectors like healthcare, energy, and homebuilders will outperform as capital rotates away from overvalued growth stocks.
The managers expect the cap-weighted S&P 500 will go from the easiest money in U.S. history over the last 15 years to a ticket to miserable returns over the next ten years. They believe their returns will be relatively strong compared to the S&P 500 Index as money flows out of growth stocks into value opportunities.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AMGN, APA, AXP, CVE, DHI, EBAY, FANG, HD, LEN, MAC, MRK, OXY, SPG, UHAL | contrarian, energy, healthcare, Homebuilders, long-term, Market Extremes, S&P 500, value | - | The fund maintains a concentrated value approach designed to maximize long-term returns. The managers position themselves as contrarians, being greedy when others are fearful and… |
| Oct 19 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, commodities, energy, oil, Value Investing |
APA DHI SPG MRK |
The funds strong quarter was driven by energy and homebuilder holdings as commodity sentiment bottomed and producers showed capital discipline. Managers contrast this with speculative… |
| Jul 15 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | contrarian, Cycles, energy, Mean reversion, value | - | The commentary argues that value investing is positioned for mean reversion after prolonged growth dominance. Management highlights overweight exposure to energy and other neglected sectors.… |
| Apr 14 2025 | 2025 Q1 | DHI, EBAY, SPG | - | - | - |
| Jan 14 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 15 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 15 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 30 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 16 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 16 2023 | 2023 Q3 | PFE | - | - | - |
| Jul 15 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 25 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
HomebuildersHigher rates have continued to weigh on the homebuilder space as well as an increase in inventory. The fund regards homebuilders' capacity to maintain construction activity throughout the cycle as a key competitive strength, with less resilient competitors likely to exit the market during prolonged cyclical downturns. |
Homebuilders Construction Cyclical |
ValueBlue Tower focuses on value investing with international diversification. The manager notes that the valuation spread between cheap and expensive stocks is one of the greatest in market history, creating a favorable environment for their value-oriented approach. |
Value International Cheap Expensive Valuation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
EnergyDiversified Energy Company provides natural gas exposure positioned for data center energy needs and LNG growth. PetroTal offers oil production exposure at significant discount to NAV despite operational challenges. Energy transition themes present across multiple holdings. |
Natural Gas Oil LNG Energy Transition |
Technology |
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ValueThe portfolio trades at significant discounts to the broad market, with P/E ratios 40-42% below the S&P 500. The manager believes many steady-growing companies are overlooked by markets focused on AI winners, creating opportunities in businesses with lower assumed margins and productivity that could benefit from AI adoption. |
Discount Multiples Undervalued Overlooked Opportunity | |
| 2025 Q2 |
MeanReversion |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bill Smead | APA | APA Corp. | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | NASDAQ | cash flow, consolidation, energy, Margins, oil, value investing | Login |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bill Smead | DHI | D.R. Horton Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Homebuilding | Bull | NYSE | construction, growth, Housing, Real Estate, Value | Login |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bill Smead | SPG | Simon Property Group Inc. | Real Estate | REITs—Retail | Bull | NYSE | dividend, Real Estate, REITs, retail, Value | Login |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bill Smead | MRK | Merck & Co. Inc. | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | NYSE | defensive, dividends, healthcare, Oncology, pharmaceuticals | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMGN | Our best-performing stocks in the quarter were Merck (MRK), Amgen (AMGN), and American Express (AXP). For the 2025 full year the best-performing stocks were eBay (EBAY), Amgen Inc (AMGN), and American Express (AXP). |
| AXP | Our best-performing stocks in the quarter were Merck (MRK), Amgen (AMGN), and American Express (AXP). For the 2025 full year the best-performing stocks were eBay (EBAY), Amgen Inc (AMGN), and American Express (AXP). |
| CVE | In November, we sold Canadian producer Cenovus (CVE), reinvesting proceeds in US midstream company ONEOK (OKE), which has underperformed recently. While we remain bullish on Canada, should Venezuelan supply return, it is a type of crude that directly competes with Canadian production. |
| DHI | Conversely, our biggest detractors this quarter were DR Horton (DHI), Lennar Corp (LEN), Home Depot (HD). |
| EBAY | For the 2025 full year the best-performing stocks were eBay (EBAY), Amgen Inc (AMGN), and American Express (AXP). |
| HD | Conversely, our biggest detractors this quarter were DR Horton (DHI), Lennar Corp (LEN), Home Depot (HD). |
| LEN | Conversely, our biggest detractors this quarter were DR Horton (DHI), Lennar Corp (LEN), Home Depot (HD). The largest detractors were Lennar Corp (LEN), U-Haul Holdings (UHAL/B), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY). |
| MRK | Our best-performing stocks in the quarter were Merck (MRK) |
| OXY | The largest detractors were Lennar Corp (LEN), U-Haul Holdings (UHAL/B), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY). |
| UHAL | The largest detractors were Lennar Corp (LEN), U-Haul Holdings (UHAL/B), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY). |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||