Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | 0.3% | 5.1% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 5.1% | 4.8% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | 0.3% | 5.1% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 5.1% | 4.8% |
The Smead Value Fund returned 0.30% in Q4 2025 versus 2.66% for the S&P 500, with healthcare stocks like Merck and Amgen leading performance as sector valuations recovered from earlier discounts. Homebuilders remained the primary detractors due to higher rates and increased inventory, though the managers view their capacity to maintain construction activity as a competitive advantage during cyclical downturns. The fund maintains a concentrated value approach designed for long-term returns, positioning as contrarians who are fearful when others are greedy. The managers believe current market conditions mirror historical extremes, with the Wilshire 5000 trading at 220% of GDP and 40-year S&P 500 returns at record highs. They expect the passive index to deliver negative returns over the next decade, similar to 1998-2009, while deeply discounted sectors like healthcare, energy, and homebuilders benefit from capital rotation away from overvalued growth stocks. Despite headwinds, the strategy delivered positive absolute returns in 2025.
The fund maintains a concentrated value approach, positioning as contrarians who are fearful when others are greedy, believing current market extremes mirror historical bubbles and that deeply discounted sectors like healthcare, energy, and homebuilders will outperform as capital rotates away from overvalued growth stocks.
The managers expect the cap-weighted S&P 500 will go from the easiest money in U.S. history over the last 15 years to a ticket to miserable returns over the next ten years. They believe their returns will be relatively strong compared to the S&P 500 Index as money flows out of growth stocks into value opportunities.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AMGN, APA, AXP, CVE, DHI, EBAY, FANG, HD, LEN, MAC, MRK, OXY, SPG, UHAL | contrarian, energy, healthcare, Homebuilders, long-term, Market Extremes, S&P 500, value | - | The fund maintains a concentrated value approach designed to maximize long-term returns. The managers position themselves as contrarians, being greedy when others are fearful and… |
| Oct 19 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, commodities, energy, oil, Value Investing |
APA DHI SPG MRK |
The funds strong quarter was driven by energy and homebuilder holdings as commodity sentiment bottomed and producers showed capital discipline. Managers contrast this with speculative… |
| Jul 15 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | contrarian, Cycles, energy, Mean reversion, value | - | The commentary argues that value investing is positioned for mean reversion after prolonged growth dominance. Management highlights overweight exposure to energy and other neglected sectors.… |
| Apr 14 2025 | 2025 Q1 | DHI, EBAY, SPG | - | - | - |
| Jan 14 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 15 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 15 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 30 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 16 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 16 2023 | 2023 Q3 | PFE | - | - | - |
| Jul 15 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 25 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
HomebuildersDespite near-term housing market challenges from affordability issues and buyer/seller strikes, there is structural underinvestment in housing relative to demographic needs. US builds same number of homes today as 1960 despite 160 million more people. Fund sees long-term bullish opportunity in companies like Toll Brothers and Champion Homes as housing market rebounds. |
Affordability Demographics Structural Shortage Millennials Manufactured |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled | |
| 2025 Q3 |
EnergyBHE operates regulated utilities serving 5.4 million customers and natural gas pipelines. The business faces significant investment needs driven by AI computing demand and wildfire risk mitigation, particularly in the Western U.S. |
Regulated Utilities Natural Gas Renewable Energy Grid Infrastructure |
Technology |
||
ValueThe manager continues to find attractive value opportunities despite expensive markets, purchasing undervalued companies like Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal trading at low multiples with strong fundamentals. |
Undervalued Low Multiples Contrarian Opportunistic | |
| 2025 Q2 |
MeanReversion |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bill Smead | APA | APA Corp. | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | NASDAQ | cash flow, consolidation, energy, Margins, oil, value investing | Login |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bill Smead | DHI | D.R. Horton Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Homebuilding | Bull | NYSE | construction, growth, Housing, Real Estate, Value | Login |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bill Smead | SPG | Simon Property Group Inc. | Real Estate | REITs—Retail | Bull | NYSE | dividend, Real Estate, REITs, retail, Value | Login |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Bill Smead | MRK | Merck & Co. Inc. | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | NYSE | defensive, dividends, healthcare, Oncology, pharmaceuticals | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMGN | Our best-performing stocks in the quarter were Merck (MRK), Amgen (AMGN), and American Express (AXP). For the 2025 full year the best-performing stocks were eBay (EBAY), Amgen Inc (AMGN), and American Express (AXP). |
| AXP | American Express Company represents 22.1% of company owned with cost basis of $1,287 million and market value of $56,088 million, providing $479 million in 2025 dividends. |
| CVE | In November, we sold Canadian producer Cenovus (CVE), reinvesting proceeds in US midstream company ONEOK (OKE), which has underperformed recently. While we remain bullish on Canada, should Venezuelan supply return, it is a type of crude that directly competes with Canadian production. |
| DHI | Conversely, our biggest detractors this quarter were DR Horton (DHI), Lennar Corp (LEN), Home Depot (HD). |
| EBAY | For the 2025 full year the best-performing stocks were eBay (EBAY), Amgen Inc (AMGN), and American Express (AXP). |
| HD | Conversely, our biggest detractors this quarter were DR Horton (DHI), Lennar Corp (LEN), Home Depot (HD). |
| LEN | LEN: $5B authorized January 2024; $4B completed |
| MRK | Top gainers in the Fund this quarter included Merck (+26%) |
| OXY | We also hold equity method investments, principally Kraft Heinz and Occidental. We recorded a pre-tax impairment loss of approximately $5.7 billion on our investment in Occidental common stock in the fourth quarter of 2025. |
| UHAL | The largest detractors were Lennar Corp (LEN), U-Haul Holdings (UHAL/B), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY). |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||