Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| 2024 |
|---|
| 10.3% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| 2024 |
|---|
| 10.3% |
Stenham Asset Management delivered strong performance in Q4 2025, generating high single to low double-digit returns with minimal market beta across their multi-strategy platform. The firm capitalized on several key themes including the massive AI capex cycle, exceptional precious metals performance with gold up 65% and silver up 148%, and beneficiaries of US re-industrialization and defense spending driven by geopolitical tensions. Their discretionary macro strategies were primary return drivers, profiting from rates steepening, commodity positioning, and currency trades against the USD. Equity long/short managers captured the rally in risk assets while maintaining market neutrality, with particular strength in healthcare and biotechnology. Event-driven strategies benefited from increased M&A activity, reaching historic investment levels. Credit allocations performed well despite tight spreads, with managers positioned for upcoming refinancing cycles. Looking ahead, the firm maintains a balanced approach given high market valuations, geopolitical risks, and potential AI bubble concerns, while recognizing strong tailwinds from fiscal stimulus and monetary easing that could drive continued outperformance.
Multi-strategy approach capitalizing on macro dislocations, AI investment cycle, and geopolitical volatility while maintaining low correlation to broader markets through diversified alternative strategies.
Balanced approach recommended given high volatility and uncertainty over intrinsic valuations, unravelling geopolitical alliances, and economic stimulus measures. Outlook remains strong across all strategies with sufficient opportunities to generate returns without beta.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 2026 | 2025 Q4 | META | AI, credit, Event Driven, Geopolitical Risk, Global Macro, gold, Long/Short, Multi-Strategy | - | Massive capex cycle linked to AI representing increasing cash flow from hyperscalers. AI adoption showing signs of flatlining with unclear use cases for profitability. Reliance… |
| Oct 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AVGO, TSM | Artificial Intelligence, Cloud infrastructure, energy, semiconductors, valuation |
TSM SIE TSM SIE |
Stenhams letter centers on the global AI infrastructure boom, noting explosive capital commitments by firms like Oracle, Nvidia, and Microsoft. While acknowledging AIs transformative potential,… |
| Aug 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AIR FP, AMZN, CME, GE, MA, MSFT, SAF FP, TSM, V | asset allocation, diversification, geopolitics, risk management, volatility |
MSFT AMZN V MA AIR FP SAF FP GE CME |
The letter emphasizes diversified global exposure as geopolitical fragmentation and macro volatility increase dispersion across regions and asset classes. Capital preservation and flexibility are prioritized… |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 29 2024 | 2024 Q4 | CLNX SM, CNI | - | - | - |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ADYEY, ASML NA | - | - | - |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ADYEY, ASML NA | - | - | - |
| Apr 29 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AMAT, ASML NA, CLNX SM, GE, SAF FP | - | - | - |
| Jan 24 2023 | 2023 Q4 | ADYEY, ASML NA, MSFT, TMO | - | - | - |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | ADYEY, CFMI, GOOG, MC FP, UMG | - | - | - |
| Jul 26 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 27 2023 | 2023 Q1 | MC FP, UMG | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
DefenseThe team initiated a position in Curtiss-Wright, believing the company is entering a period where multiple near-term growth drivers are converging, including rising defense budgets, commercial aerospace production ramps, nuclear power plant life extensions and new builds, and submarine production. |
Defense Budgets Aerospace Nuclear Submarines | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
OnshoringReshoring of supply chains presents compelling opportunities for smaller companies. AZZ is positioned to benefit from domestic manufacturing reshoring trends, while the broader strategy targets companies that can capitalize on this shift. |
Reshoring Supply Chains Manufacturing | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
EnergyBHE operates regulated utilities serving 5.4 million customers and natural gas pipelines. The business faces significant investment needs driven by AI computing demand and wildfire risk mitigation, particularly in the Western U.S. |
Regulated Utilities Natural Gas Renewable Energy Grid Infrastructure | |
SemiconductorsRGA initiated a position in Lattice Semiconductor, viewing it as an under-appreciated AI winner with immediate gains and longer-term optionality. Lattice's focus on efficiency and advantages in low-power, small footprint FPGAs position it favorably for AI servers, particularly as the only Post-Quantum Cryptography secure chips on the market. |
FPGAs Security Efficiency AI Infrastructure Programmable | |
| 2025 Q2 |
DiversificationThe Fund remains purposefully diversified despite market leadership being narrow and focused on AI. This discipline reflects commitment to effective risk management and appropriate diversification, which weighed on relative performance but positions the Fund well for various market scenarios. |
Risk Management Portfolio Construction Concentration |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | GE | GE Aerospace | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Aerospace, aftermarket, backlog, cashflow, services | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | CME | CME Group Inc. | Financials | Financial Exchanges & Data | Bull | NASDAQ | Derivatives, Exchanges, Networkeffects, Rates, Volatility | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NYSE | AI, Capacity, growth, manufacturing, Monopoly, Pricing power, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | SIE | Siemens Energy AG | Industrials | Electrical Equipment | Bull | - | AI, backlog, Electricity, energy transition, Gas turbines, growth, renewables | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NYSE | AI, Capacity, growth, manufacturing, Monopoly, Pricing power, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | SIE | Siemens Energy AG | Industrials | Electrical Equipment | Bull | - | AI, backlog, Electricity, energy transition, Gas turbines, growth, renewables | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CapEx, cloud, hyperscalers, Margins | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | Information Technology | IT Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CapEx, cloud, infrastructure, scale | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | V | Visa Inc. | Financials | Transaction & Payment Processing Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Margins, Networks, Payments, Regulation, stablecoins | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | MA | Mastercard Incorporated | Financials | Transaction & Payment Processing Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Fintech, Networks, Payments, resilience, stablecoins | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | AIR FP | Airbus SE | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | Aerospace, backlog, Pricingpower, Supplychain, Travel | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | SAF FP | Safran S.A. | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | Aerospace, aftermarket, Engines, Margins, Utilization | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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