| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -3.1% | -3.1% |
Stenham Asset Management's Q1 2026 letter details a challenging quarter where risk assets fell due to Middle East conflict, with the S&P 500 declining 4.3%. AI remained central to markets with continued hyperscaler investment, though software companies faced obsolescence risk. Oil prices surged above $100 following Strait of Hormuz closure, reigniting inflation fears and reducing rate cut expectations. The firm's multi-strategy hedge fund portfolios varied between moderately negative and slightly positive returns, with credit, event driven and quant strategies positive while macro strategies struggled. Discretionary macro managers were caught wrong-footed by geopolitical events, having positioned for accommodative monetary policy. The firm maintains strategy allocations while taking advantage of capacity-constrained manager opportunities. Defense spending requirements across Europe are expected to rise significantly following conflict revelations. Looking forward, Stenham sees strong outlook across strategies with minimal market beta, continued institutional interest, and 22% AuM growth over twelve months, while maintaining defensive positioning given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Stenham maintains a balanced multi-strategy approach across hedge fund allocations, seeking to protect capital during stress while taking risk for strong expected returns, with particular focus on capacity-constrained managers and defensive positioning given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
The outlook remains strong across all strategies with funds protecting capital in March and seeing strong performance in April. Net performance over several years has been in high single digits with minimal beta to broader markets. The firm continues to see increased institutional client interest and AuM growth of 22% over the last 12 months.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | AI, credit, geopolitics, Hedge Funds, Macro, Multi-Strategy, oil | - | Stenham's multi-strategy hedge fund approach delivered mixed Q1 2026 results amid Middle East conflict and oil price surge above $100. AI investment continued driving markets while creating software obsolescence risk. Macro strategies struggled with geopolitical surprises, but credit and event-driven performed well. Firm maintains balanced positioning with strong long-term outlook despite ongoing uncertainty. |
| Feb 11 2026 | 2025 Q4 | META | AI, credit, Event Driven, Geopolitical Risk, Global Macro, gold, Long/Short, Multi-Strategy | - | Stenham delivered strong multi-strategy returns in Q4 2025 with minimal market correlation, capitalizing on AI capex cycles, precious metals surge, and geopolitical volatility. Discretionary macro drove performance through rates and currency positioning while equity strategies captured risk asset rallies. Despite elevated valuations and geopolitical risks, the firm sees continued opportunities across all strategies. |
| Oct 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, AFG, AIR.PA, AMD, AMZN, AVGO, CSU.TO, ENEN.DE, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, SNPS, TSM, UMG.AS | AI, Cloud, energy, infrastructure, Quality, semiconductors, technology, valuation |
TSM SIE TSM SIE |
Stenham underperformed in Q3 as AI infrastructure boom favored speculative stocks over quality. The fund maintains cautious optimism on AI secular growth through picks and shovels like Microsoft, TSMC, and Siemens Energy while acknowledging bubble risks. Factor rotation toward lower-quality names created headwinds, but managers focus on fundamental strength expecting eventual mean reversion. |
| Aug 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AFG, AIR.PA, AMZN, CME, GE, MA, MSFT, SAF.PA, TMO, TSM, UNP, V | aerospace, AI, Cloud, Exchanges, global, payments, technology |
MSFT AMZN V MA AIR FP SAF FP GE CME CME |
Stenham delivered 8.4% in Q2 despite FX hedging headwinds, with cloud computing and aerospace driving performance. Microsoft's AI-driven Azure growth and aerospace aftermarket strength from aging fleets highlight the fund's focus on structural winners with competitive moats. Near-term catalysts include Fed rate cuts, though elevated valuations and geopolitical risks warrant monitoring. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | BA, SPR, X | credit, geopolitics, global, Hedge Funds, Macro, Recession, tariffs, volatility | - | Stenham delivered 2-3% returns in Q1 2025 by maintaining diversified hedge fund strategies with minimal market beta amid unprecedented tariff-driven volatility. The firm capitalizes on increased trading opportunities across macro, credit, and equity strategies while traditional assets appear mispriced for recession risk. Management targets high-single digit returns regardless of market direction through tactical positioning. |
| Jan 29 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AIR.PA, AMZN, CDI.PA, CLNX.MC, CNI, CP, CSU.TO, GE, GOOGL, HLT, MA, MC.PA, META, MSFT, NVDA, RMS.PA, SAF.PA, TSLA, UNP | aerospace, Concentration, Europe, Luxury, payments, Quality, Railroads, valuation |
MC.PA GE CLNX.MC CNI HLT |
Stenham's concentrated quality portfolio lagged in 2024's narrow market dominated by Magnificent 7 momentum. Aerospace outperformed on travel demand while luxury suffered from Chinese weakness. Portfolio valuations compressed 10% as fundamentals improved, creating better opportunities. Management maintains conviction in their 16% IRR underwrite versus market returns, positioning for long-term outperformance through business quality. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ADYEN.AS, AMAT, ASML, CDI.PA, CLNX.PA, GOOGL, MC.PA, RMS.PA, TMO, UMG.AS | global, large cap, Luxury, payments, Quality, semiconductors |
ADYEN.AS RMS.PA |
Stenham delivered 3.7% in Q3 versus 6.0% for MSCI World, with strong performance from Adyen offsetting semiconductor weakness. The fund initiated Hermès following luxury sector de-rating and reduced semiconductor exposure on valuation concerns. Management emphasizes long-term fundamental value over market timing, focusing on businesses with predictable earnings that can navigate macroeconomic uncertainty. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, ADYEN.AS, AIR.PA, AMAT, AMZN, ASML, GE, GOOGL, MC.PA, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, TSM | Concentration, earnings, fundamentals, long-term, technology, valuation |
ADYEN.AS AIR.PA |
Stenham underperformed in Q2 as historic market concentration favored Magnificent 7 stocks while breadth collapsed. Technical momentum strategies dominated fundamentals, creating opportunities for long-term investors. The manager added to ASML, Adyen, and Airbus during earnings-driven weakness, viewing these as temporary headwinds against strong fundamental outlooks. Portfolio earnings grew 4% despite multiple compression. |
| Apr 29 2024 | 2024 Q1 | 005930.KS, AAPL, AIR.PA, ALK, AMAT, ASML, BA, CLNX.MC, GE, NVDA, SAF.PA, TSM, UAL | aerospace, AI, semiconductors, technology, Travel |
ASML AMAT GE SAF.PA AIR.PA CLNX.MC |
Stenham outperformed with 13.9% returns by owning dominant companies in growing markets. Semiconductor equipment providers ASML and Applied Materials surged on AI-driven demand and rising manufacturing complexity. Aerospace holdings GE and Safran benefited from travel growth and supply constraints. The team is managing valuations by rotating from technology outperformers to laggards while maintaining focus on secular growth themes. |
| Jan 24 2023 | 2023 Q4 | ADBE, ADYEN.AS, AMAT, ASML, CSU.TO, MSFT, NVDA, PYPL, TMO | AI, Biotech, Cloud, large cap, payments, semiconductors, technology |
AAPL|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|UNH ASML ADI|BDX|FI|FND|HAS|META|MSFT|MSI|ORCL|TMO ADYEN |
Stenham delivered strong 2023 returns driven by concentrated technology positions in Microsoft and ASML, capitalizing on AI and semiconductor trends. The manager trimmed winners due to valuation expansion while adding to Thermo Fisher on weakness. Despite mixed 2024 outlook signals, they maintain long-term focus on quality businesses and using volatility as opportunity. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | ADYEN.AS, ASML, DHR, GE, GOOGL, MC.PA, SAF.PA, UMG.AS | aerospace, AI, global, Luxury, Music, payments, technology |
UMG.AS GOOGL ADYEN MC.PA 0GEG LN |
Stenham delivered -4.8% in Q3 as AI disruption fears subsided for UMG and Alphabet while Adyen and LVMH faced growth headwinds. The fund initiated aerospace positions in GE/Safran's engine joint venture, capitalizing on secular air travel growth. Despite macro uncertainty, managers maintain conviction in quality businesses with competitive moats and plan selective additions on volatility. |
| Jul 26 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AI, AMAT, AMZN, CHGG, CNI, CP, DHR, DUOL, GOOGL, KR, MA, MSFT, NVDA, RACE, TMO, UMG.AS | AI, global, infrastructure, large cap, Quality, semiconductors, technology | - | Stenham's quality-focused strategy faced Q2 headwinds from extreme market concentration in mega-cap tech and speculative stock outperformance. The fund maintains a picks and shovels approach to AI, investing in semiconductor and cloud infrastructure rather than trying to identify winners. Despite short-term sector rotation pressures, secular growth drivers remain intact for portfolio holdings. |
| Apr 27 2023 | 2023 Q1 | ADBE, ASML, CNI, CP, DHR, MA, MC.PA, MSFT, RACE, SAF.PA, UMG.AS, V | disruption, durability, infrastructure, long-term, Luxury, Quality, Railroads, technology |
ACP.WA CNI MC.PA RACE SAF.PA UMG.AS ^VIX ADMA |
Stenham outperformed in Q1 2023 despite banking sector turmoil, driven by technology and luxury holdings. The manager has strategically repositioned away from disruptive technology toward durable businesses with 70-year average age, including railroads, luxury brands, and infrastructure plays. This focus on companies with staying power aims to capitalize on market short-termism while delivering sustainable long-term outperformance through concentrated quality investing. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI remained central to equity markets with uniformly positive fundamental developments in Q1, though sentiment reversed in March. Hyperscalers continued massive investment and buildout, stimulating the economy short to medium term. Software companies faced obsolescence risk from AI advances, particularly impacting credit markets and private credit with 20-25% tech exposure. |
Artificial Intelligence Hyperscalers Software Technology Investment |
OilOil prices rose above $100 in March for the first time since 2022 due to Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure. This reignited inflation fears and led to government bond sell-offs as future rate cuts became less likely. The impact differs geographically, with the US being a net oil exporter versus Europe and UK's greater import dependence. |
Crude Oil Energy Geopolitics Inflation Middle East | |
Private CreditPrivate credit markets were impacted by technology obsolescence risk from AI advances, with the sector typically having 20-25% exposure to technology companies. This exposure is higher when including adjacent tech exposures in other industries, creating vulnerability to AI disruption. |
Credit Technology Alternative Investments Risk | |
Defense SpendingThe war in Middle East and continued Ukraine conflict highlighted that many European countries are not equipped to fight wars. Defense spending, which declined massively since the Cold War end, will have to rise significantly. It's unclear how this will be achieved through further tax rises or welfare spending cuts. |
Defense Government Spending Europe Military | |
RatesMarket expectations for interest rate cuts were reduced following oil price increases and inflation fears. Government bond yields moved significantly, with UK and Europe hit harder than the US. Discretionary macro managers were caught wrong-footed by geopolitical events, having entered March with long bias to front-end rates. |
Interest Rates Central Banks Monetary Policy Bonds | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIMassive capex cycle linked to AI represents increasing cash flow from hyperscalers. AI adoption showing signs of flatlining with unclear use cases and profitability concerns. Reliance on Magnificent 7 for equity performance continues with AI bubble bursting identified as major economic risk. |
Artificial Intelligence Hyperscalers Capex Technology Valuations |
GoldExceptionally strong performance with gold returning 65% for 2025 and continuing strength into 2026 with 13.3% gain in January. Precious metals seeing extreme moves following very strong prior year performance. |
Precious Metals Safe Haven Commodities | |
CreditCredit spreads remained tight at historic levels with returns mainly generated by carry. Four of largest credit issuers in 2025 were hyperscalers. Credit markets becoming increasingly sensitive to AI companies with significant refinancing requirements in 2026-2027. |
Credit Spreads High Yield Corporate Bonds | |
GeopoliticalSignificant geopolitical risks including Maduro taken from Venezuela, fracturing of Western alliance over Greenland, and violent suppression of Iran protests. These events creating uncertainty despite markets remaining relatively benign. |
Geopolitics Venezuela Iran Western Alliance | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe AI infrastructure boom remained the dominant theme driving markets to new highs. Oracle reported customer commitments of $455bn, surpassing expectations by over 200%. The fund holds picks and shovels of the AI opportunity including Microsoft, Amazon, and TSMC, focusing on companies with flexibility to reallocate capacity and disciplined approaches to AI infrastructure deployment. |
Infrastructure Data Centers Cloud Semiconductors Demand |
SemiconductorsTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company serves as the world's leading manufacturer of semiconductors used in AI applications. As a capacity-constrained near-monopoly in leading-edge chipmaking, TSMC can allocate capacity towards various long-term secular growth trends. Broadcom revised its CEO incentive plan to be tied to AI-related revenues, targeting a six-fold increase by decade end. |
TSMC Manufacturing Capacity Leading-edge Monopoly | |
CloudMicrosoft and Amazon benefit from rising AI-driven cloud demand while retaining flexibility to reallocate capacity toward non-AI workloads. Microsoft shows greater discipline by prioritizing capacity for inference rather than training, which is likely more durable over time. Cloud infrastructure demand continues to exceed expectations across the sector. |
Infrastructure Demand Flexibility Inference Training | |
Energy TransitionSiemens Energy is well-positioned to benefit from rising power demand driven by AI data centers. Gas turbines are uniquely positioned to meet electricity needs through rapid deployment and reliable output. Additional structural drivers include coal-to-gas transitions, renewables intermittency support, and load growth from EV adoption and reshoring. |
Power Gas Turbines Data Centers Electricity Deployment | |
| 2025 Q2 |
CloudCloud computing stood out as a bright spot with continued AI adoption driving strength across hyperscalers. Microsoft's Azure business significantly exceeded expectations with AI revenues growing 175% year-over-year. The AI business is already generating $14bn annualized revenue after only 2 years, compared to 8 years for cloud to reach the same milestone. |
AI Azure Hyperscalers Computing Infrastructure |
PaymentsVisa and MasterCard underperformed due to stablecoin adoption concerns, but the managers believe stablecoins offer limited value proposition in consumer payments due to chicken-and-egg adoption problems. Card networks' dominant position in the payments ecosystem should remain intact as innovation is typically built on top of existing rails. |
Stablecoins Cross-border Remittances Network Digital | |
AerospaceAerospace was the largest contributor to portfolio performance with strength in aftermarket driven by aging fleet and delayed deliveries. Supply chain improvements should enable Airbus to accelerate deliveries, with new aircraft selling at 30-40% premiums compared to pre-pandemic levels. |
Aftermarket Fleet Deliveries Supply Chain Pricing | |
ExchangesCME Group benefits from network effects and winner-takes-all dynamics in futures trading. The company holds near-monopoly on US government interest rate futures and is positioned to benefit from secular growth in debt markets and expanding retail participation through improved technology and smaller contract sizes. |
Futures Liquidity Monopoly Interest Rates Retail | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyThe Trump administration imposed wide-ranging tariffs including 25% on foreign vehicles and auto parts, expanding from Mexico and Canada to broader global application. This represents an upending of the 50-year global free trade system, creating lasting damage to US and global economic confidence. The scale and permanence of these tariffs far exceeded expectations, causing significant market volatility and institutional repositioning away from US assets. |
Tariffs Protectionism Trade War Global Trade Economic Policy |
VolatilityMarket volatility increased significantly during Q1, particularly following tariff announcements and the DeepSeek AI model release. This elevated volatility created attractive trading opportunities across asset classes for macro and quantitative strategies. Currency and interest rate volatility expanded on greater macroeconomic uncertainty, benefiting discretionary macro managers who shortened holding periods and adopted more tactical approaches. |
Market Volatility Trading Opportunities Tactical Positioning Risk Management | |
AIChina's DeepSeek released surprisingly powerful and relatively inexpensive AI models, triggering a significant selloff in the Magnificent 7 stocks which fell 16% during the quarter. This development challenged the AI investment narrative and contributed to momentum-driven market weakness, particularly affecting technology stocks that had been driving recent market returns. |
Artificial Intelligence DeepSeek Technology Disruption China AI | |
DefenseThe US paused military aid to Ukraine following tensions between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, indicating a shift from prior defense commitments. European defense names performed well as managers rotated into this sector, benefiting from increased focus on European defense spending amid changing geopolitical dynamics and reduced US military support. |
Defense Spending Geopolitics Military Aid European Defense | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AerospaceAerospace was the largest positive contributor to portfolio performance in 2024. Aftermarket engine holdings including General Electric and Safran outperformed as strong air travel demand and delivery delays extended aircraft operational lifecycles, driving robust engine maintenance demand and upward earnings revisions. Looking to 2025, while strong aftermarket growth is expected to persist, a gradual shift toward OE-driven growth is anticipated as supply chain pressures slowly subside. |
Aftermarket Engines Travel Maintenance Supply Chain |
LuxuryLuxury was a notable detractor to portfolio performance in 2024, driven by a prolonged post-pandemic normalisation and ongoing macroeconomic headwinds in China. Chinese consumers, the sector's largest demographic, faced lower confidence amid weak real estate and equity markets. These challenges drove earnings downgrades across the sector, though LVMH outperformed its lower-desirability peers in a context of increased brand polarisation. |
China Brands Consumption Polarisation Downgrades | |
RailroadsRailroads were a detractor to portfolio performance in 2024, impacted by weak US industrial production, low truck rates, and temporary disruptions that led to earnings downgrades. Canadian Pacific Kansas City meaningfully outgrew its peers in 2024, driven by strong operational execution and better-than-expected synergy realisation from its recent merger. Looking ahead, the long-term potential of rail transportation as the backbone of the North American economy and a beneficiary of supply chain reshoring trends remains intact. |
Industrial Synergies Reshoring Execution Disruptions | |
PaymentsMastercard was identified as a top contributor to 2024 performance with 1.6% attribution and 6.9% portfolio weight. The fund maintains exposure to the payments sector as part of its core themes allocation. |
Digital Processing Networks Growth Margins | |
| 2024 Q3 |
LuxuryThe luxury sector is undergoing normalization from post-pandemic euphoria, with polarization between high and lower desirability brands intensifying. China's stimulus measures provide relief as investors view them as commitment to addressing economic challenges. The fund initiated a position in Hermès, viewing it as uniquely positioned to balance desirability and exclusivity through structural undersupply of iconic products. |
Luxury China Hermès LVMH Exclusivity |
SemiconductorsThe semiconductor sector took a respite from AI enthusiasm during the quarter, with valuations reaching 10-year peaks on a relative basis. The fund reduced exposure to ASML and Applied Materials earlier in the year on valuation concerns. Long-term outlook remains positive driven by secular growth trends in AI data centers, electrification, and autonomous vehicles, plus geopolitical duplication of supply chains. |
Semiconductors AI ASML Valuations Equipment | |
PaymentsAdyen demonstrated continued growth acceleration with management's commitment to superior value proposition over price cutting. The company secured large customer wins including Prada, Cash App, and Instacart. Competitive pressures from PayPal have waned as their new management emphasizes profitable growth. Workforce expansion over 2022-2023 is expected to drive market share gains and growth re-acceleration from 2025. |
Payments Adyen Growth Competition Market Share | |
| 2024 Q2 |
MomentumThe momentum factor is having the best start to the year in the last 30 years, with technical factors driving markets rather than fundamental factors. This dynamic has become more pronounced over time due to shrinking timelines for market participants. |
Technical Quantitative Short-term |
SemiconductorsASML reported weaker demand backlog due to delayed orders from TSMC, creating a buying opportunity. The manager added to positions during weakness, benefiting from recovery as the market gained visibility on improving demand. |
ASML TSMC Equipment Cyclical | |
PaymentsAdyen disappointed on net revenue growth due to short-term merchant mix factors, but longer-term outlook on volume growth and profitability improved. The manager used the share price drop to increase position size. |
Fintech Volume Growth | |
| 2024 Q1 |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor equipment providers ASML and Applied Materials benefited from long-term secular growth in chip manufacturing costs, rising from $1bn facilities a decade ago to $20bn today. The industry is supported by geopolitical tensions driving semiconductor sovereignty initiatives, with Samsung and TSMC committing $69bn in new US investments. AI demand is driving exponentially more advanced chips, with Nvidia's latest GPU processing 600x more operations than an iPhone chip. |
Semi Equipment AI Geopolitical Capital Intensity Manufacturing |
AerospaceAircraft engine makers GE and Safran dominate the narrowbody market through their CFMI joint venture with over 70% market share. The industry benefits from secular travel growth outpacing GDP by 2x over two decades. Supply chain constraints and Boeing's quality issues are creating a golden era for aftermarket services with higher aircraft utilization rates. |
Aircraft Engines Travel Aftermarket Oligopoly Utilization | |
TravelGlobal air travel demand continues to grow as people's propensity to travel rises with wealth, with miles flown outpacing GDP growth by approximately 2x over the past two decades. This secular tailwind supports the aerospace industry, particularly engine manufacturers who benefit from both new aircraft demand and aftermarket services from higher fleet utilization. |
Air Travel GDP Growth Secular Growth Fleet Utilization | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIArtificial Intelligence became the year's favourite buzzword, with the mere use of the term helping boost stock prices. Microsoft's cloud computing (Azure) and enterprise software stack firmly positions the company in this category as a picks and shovels company. Microsoft Azure's OpenAI services grew from ~250 entering the year to ~18,000 by Q3 2023. |
Azure OpenAI Copilot Infrastructure Cloud |
SemiconductorsASML benefitted from the outperformance of semiconductors over the course of the year, buoyed by their critical importance in the secular demand for AI. Capital equipment companies like ASML, supplying chipmaking machinery, also benefitted as China drastically accelerated their efforts to develop their own domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities in light of growing trade tensions. |
ASML Equipment China Manufacturing Trade | |
CloudMicrosoft's cloud business continues to be the leader in incremental market share gains among the Big 3 cloud players (Amazon, Microsoft & Alphabet). Microsoft Azure is expected to have gained over 200bps of market share in cloud revenues over 2023, accelerated by AI leadership and over 500bps over the past 4 years. |
Azure Market Share Infrastructure Enterprise Growth | |
| 2023 Q3 |
AIThe fund discusses AI disruption threats to portfolio companies like Universal Music Group and Alphabet. Music generative-AI was seen as a potential threat to UMG but legal and adoption hurdles were deemed high enough to prevent structural disruption. Alphabet faced ChatGPT competition but responded with AI products including Bard, driving share price recovery. |
ChatGPT Generative AI Bard OpenAI Microsoft Bing |
MusicUniversal Music Group was the largest contributor to performance after concerns about music generative-AI subsided. The company benefits from streaming platform price increases as music labels capture a portion of gross profits from subscription revenue, providing uplift to UMG's revenue and profits. |
Streaming Spotify Music Labels Subscription Revenue | |
AerospaceThe fund initiated positions in General Electric and Safran, highlighting their joint venture CFM International as the world's largest aircraft engine manufacturer. The aerospace theme is driven by secular growth in air traffic with 80% of the world's population never having flown, requiring nearly double the current aircraft fleet over two decades. |
Aircraft Engines CFM International Air Traffic Aftermarket MRO | |
LuxuryLVMH was a detractor as post-pandemic euphoria gave way to slowdown signs in the US extending to Europe and softer China rebound. The global personal luxury goods market is mean reverting back to structural growth after growing 2-3 times typical rate post-pandemic, pressuring LVMH's share price which declined 25% from highs. |
Personal Luxury Goods China Rebound Post-pandemic Mean Reversion | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIAI is this year's favorite buzzword with companies mentioning it on earnings calls to boost stock prices. The fund takes a picks and shovels approach, investing in infrastructure companies like semiconductors and cloud providers that benefit regardless of AI winners and losers. Historical technological revolutions show most companies fail, making infrastructure plays the most sustainable investment strategy. |
Semiconductors Cloud Infrastructure Technology Innovation |
SemiconductorsNvidia increased revenue guidance by over 50% from $7bn to $11bn due to AI demand for their semiconductors, representing the largest revenue revision for a large cap S&P 500 company ever. Semiconductor companies are positioned as picks and shovels beneficiaries of AI adoption regardless of which specific AI applications succeed. |
AI Technology Hardware Infrastructure Growth | |
CloudCloud computing providers are identified as key infrastructure beneficiaries of AI emergence, positioned as picks and shovels plays that benefit regardless of AI winners and losers. Microsoft is highlighted as both a cloud provider and AI infrastructure company that has rallied significantly. |
AI Infrastructure Technology Software Computing | |
RailroadsNorth American railroads faced short-term headwinds from retail inventory destocking and declining truck rates but stand to benefit from re-industrialization and reshoring driven by US industrial policy response to geopolitical and supply-chain challenges. The fund used share price weakness to selectively add to positions. |
Infrastructure Onshoring Industrial Policy Transportation Logistics | |
| 2023 Q1 |
AIThe recent rise of Artificial Intelligence represents rapid technological change that is calling into question the outlook for many businesses. ChatGPT set the record for fastest app to reach 1 million users in just 5 days, demonstrating the accelerating pace of technological adoption. The debates around whether AI will disrupt internet search and change our lives are driving shorter investment horizons as narratives change faster than investors can keep up. |
ChatGPT Disruption Technology Adoption Search |
RailroadsNorth American railroads represent long-dated assets with demonstrated durability. The overwhelming majority of the North American railroad network was laid out in the second half of the 19th century, and as legendary railroader Hunter Harrison noted, they ain't building any more railroads. The same network carrying goods for the past century will likely continue to do so over the next one, as reflected in railroads being among the very few 100-year bond issuers. |
Infrastructure Durability Transportation Network Longevity | |
LuxuryLuxury represents one of the purest expressions of humans' structural need for status assertion, deeply engrained in our nature since we started socializing around 300,000 years ago. As Bernard Arnault recalls from a meeting with Steve Jobs, luxury brands have eternity for them while technology products face uncertain longevity. The manager believes luxury will continue regardless of technological disruption. |
Status Durability Human Nature Brands Longevity |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NYSE | AI, Capacity, growth, manufacturing, Monopoly, Pricing power, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NYSE | AI, Capacity, growth, manufacturing, Monopoly, Pricing power, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | SIE | Siemens Energy AG | Industrials | Electrical Equipment | Bull | - | AI, backlog, Electricity, energy transition, Gas turbines, growth, renewables | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | SIE | Siemens Energy AG | Industrials | Electrical Equipment | Bull | - | AI, backlog, Electricity, energy transition, Gas turbines, growth, renewables | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | SAF FP | Safran S.A. | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | Aerospace, aftermarket, Engines, Margins, Utilization | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | GE | GE Aerospace | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Aerospace, aftermarket, backlog, cashflow, services | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | CME | CME Group Inc. | Financials | Financial Exchanges & Data | Bull | NASDAQ | Derivatives, Exchanges, Networkeffects, Rates, Volatility | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CapEx, cloud, hyperscalers, Margins | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | Information Technology | IT Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CapEx, cloud, infrastructure, scale | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | V | Visa Inc. | Financials | Transaction & Payment Processing Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Margins, Networks, Payments, Regulation, stablecoins | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | MA | Mastercard Incorporated | Financials | Transaction & Payment Processing Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Fintech, Networks, Payments, resilience, stablecoins | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Kevin Arenson | AIR FP | Airbus SE | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | Aerospace, backlog, Pricingpower, Supplychain, Travel | Login |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | CME | CME Group | Financials | Financial Exchanges & Data | Bull | NASDAQ | Clearing, Commodities, Derivatives, Exchange, Financial infrastructure, Futures, Interest rates, Monopoly, network effects, risk management, Volatility | Login |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | CLNX.MC | Cellnex | Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | BME Spanish Exchanges | Balance Sheet Leverage, Bond Proxy, Cell Towers, Free Cash Flow, interest rate sensitivity, Share Buyback, Utility-like | Login |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | CNI | Canadian National Railway | Industrials | Road & Rail | Bear | TSX | management execution, operational challenges, railroads, Supply chain reshoring, tariff risks, US Domestic Focus | Login |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | HLT | Hilton Worldwide Holdings | Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Bull | NYSE | asset-light, Branded Hotels, franchise model, high-ROIC, hospitality, Leadership Team | Login |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | GE | General Electric | Industrials | Industrial Conglomerates | Bull | NYSE | Aerospace, aftermarket, Air Travel Demand, Aircraft Lifecycles, Engine Maintenance, supply chain constraints | Login |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | MC.PA | LVMH | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Bull | Euronext Paris | Brand Polarization, Chinese Consumers, Luxury goods, Post-pandemic Normalization, Pricing power, Status Consumption | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | ADYEN.AS | Adyen | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | Euronext Amsterdam | digital payments, e-commerce, Fintech, growth, market share, Netherlands, Payments, SaaS | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | RMS.PA | Hermès | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Bull | Euronext Paris | Craftsmanship, Exclusivity, Family Business, france, Handbags, Luxury goods, Pricing power, Value | Login |
| Jul 12, 2024 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | ADYEN.AS | Adyen N.V. | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | Euronext Amsterdam | e-commerce, Fintech, growth, Netherlands, Payments, technology | Login |
| Jul 12, 2024 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | AIR.PA | Airbus SE | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | Euronext Paris | Aerospace, backlog, Cyclical, Europe, manufacturing, supply chain | Login |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | AIR.PA | Airbus SE | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | Euronext Paris | Aerospace, Aircraft Manufacturing, backlog, Culture, Europe, growth inflection, market share, Safety | Login |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | CLNX.MC | Cellnex Telecom S.A. | Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | Madrid Stock Exchange | 5G, buybacks, Cell Towers, Europe, infrastructure, Mobile Data, REITs, shareholder returns | Login |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | GE | General Electric Company | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NYSE | Aerospace, aftermarket, Aircraft engines, Maintenance, oligopoly, Pure-Play, spin-off, Travel | Login |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | AMAT | Applied Materials Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Capital equipment, Cyclical, geopolitical, growth, manufacturing, semiconductor equipment, technology | Login |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Capital equipment, geopolitical, growth, manufacturing, photolithography, semiconductor equipment, technology | Login |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | SAF.PA | Safran S.A. | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | Euronext Paris | Aerospace, aftermarket, Aircraft engines, Europe, Joint venture, Maintenance, oligopoly, Travel | Login |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | ADI|BDX|FI|FND|HAS|META|MSFT|MSI|ORCL|TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | Health Care | Life Sciences Tools & Services | Bull | NYSE | Bioprocessing, Biotech, COVID, FDA Approvals, healthcare, life sciences, pharmaceuticals | Login |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | AAPL|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|UNH | Microsoft Corporation | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, Azure, Cloud computing, Enterprise software, large-cap, SaaS, technology | Login |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, Capital equipment, China, Lithography, semiconductors, technology, Trade Tensions | Login |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | ADYEN | Adyen N.V. | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | EURONEXT | Competition, digital payments, e-commerce, Fintech, Payments, PayPal, Revenue Growth | Login |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | ADYEN | Adyen N.V. | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Neutral | Euronext Amsterdam | Competition, Fintech, growth deceleration, North America, Omnichannel, Payments, valuation | Login |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | MC.PA | LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Bull | Euronext Paris | brand strength, China, Consumer Discretionary, Cyclical, Luxury goods, macro headwinds, valuation | Login |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, digital advertising, Ecosystem, innovation, market dominance, Search, technology | Login |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | 0GEG LN | General Electric Company | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NYSE | Aerospace, aftermarket, Aircraft engines, barriers to entry, Joint venture, MRO, oligopoly, secular growth | Login |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | UMG.AS | Universal Music Group | Communication Services | Entertainment | Bull | Euronext Amsterdam | AI, Content, entertainment, Music, Revenue-sharing, royalties, Streaming | Login |
| Apr 14, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | ACP.WA | Canadian Pacific Railway Limited | Industrials | Railroads | Bull | TSX | defensive, Freight, infrastructure, Long-dated Assets, Moat, North America, railroad, Transportation | Login |
| Apr 14, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | CNI | Canadian National Railway Company | Industrials | Railroads | Bull | TSX | defensive, Freight, infrastructure, Long-dated Assets, Moat, North America, railroad, Transportation | Login |
| Apr 14, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | MC.PA | LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Bull | Euronext Paris | Brand, Consumer Discretionary, Europe, Luxury goods, premium, Pricing power, Status, Timeless | Login |
| Apr 14, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Consumer Discretionary | Automobile Manufacturers | Bull | NYSE | automotive, Brand, heritage, Limited Production, Luxury goods, premium, Pricing power, Status | Login |
| Apr 14, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | SAF.PA | Safran SA | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | Euronext Paris | Aerospace, Aircraft engines, barriers to entry, Cyclical Recovery, Defense, Europe, Industrial, manufacturing | Login |
| Apr 14, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | UMG.AS | Universal Music Group N.V. | Communication Services | Entertainment | Bull | Euronext Amsterdam | Content, digital media, entertainment, Europe, infrastructure, Music, royalties, Streaming | Login |
| Apr 14, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | ^VIX | Visa Inc. | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NYSE | digital payments, financial services, Fintech, infrastructure, network effects, Payments, technology, Transaction Processing | Login |
| Apr 14, 2023 | Fund Letters | Stenham Asset Management | ADMA | Mastercard Incorporated | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NYSE | digital payments, financial services, Fintech, infrastructure, network effects, Payments, technology, Transaction Processing | Login |
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