| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 27.1% | - | 21.0% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 21.0% |
Stone Ridge applies Bayesian statistical principles to treasure hunting across multiple markets, achieving significant discoveries in 2025. The firm discovered substantial untapped natural gas reserves in Arkansas' Fayetteville Shale, increasing expected lifetime revenue from $10 billion to $15 billion through disciplined testing and technological improvements. Stone Ridge Energy has purchased nearly $11 billion of energy assets via proprietary securitizations, delivering over 20% annual returns while operating 5,596 wells that power four million American families. Longtail Re executed a landmark $1.4 billion retrospective reinsurance transaction with Everest Group, growing assets to over $6 billion while maintaining 20% annualized ROE since inception. The firm champions bitcoin as a tool for financial sovereignty, supporting Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado and human rights activists globally. Key risks include natural gas price volatility, legacy reinsurance adverse selection, and authoritarian financial repression. Catalysts include drilling technology improvements, potential Venezuelan regime change, and growing bitcoin adoption for financial freedom.
Stone Ridge applies Bayesian statistical principles to treasure hunting across energy, reinsurance, and bitcoin markets, seeking undervalued assets through disciplined iteration and adaptive learning.
Stone Ridge expects to become a top three U.S. hydrocarbon producer through disciplined acquisitions and development, while maintaining selective approach to reinsurance opportunities and supporting bitcoin adoption for financial freedom.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28 2025 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, NVDA | Bayesian, Bitcoin, energy, Human Rights, Natural Gas, operations, Reinsurance | - | Stone Ridge discovered significant untapped natural gas reserves in Arkansas' Fayetteville Shale through disciplined testing on 60,000 acres of undeveloped land. The discovery increased expected… |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
CryptoFund focuses exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation through disciplined cycle-aware positioning. Manager shifted to defensive posture in Q3 anticipating correction, ending Q4 with two-thirds Bitcoin and one-third cash. Going forward, fund will hold only Bitcoin based on data showing altcoins have terrible odds with only 1-in-70 beating Bitcoin historically. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Cycles Accumulation Volatility |
EnergyEnergy plays a critical role in AI infrastructure economics, with data centers becoming major electricity consumers. Rising power costs compress margins while grid constraints and regulatory scrutiny influence deployment timelines. The manager emphasizes that unlike software-driven growth, AI compute cannot be scaled independently of physical energy reality. |
Data Centers Grid Power Infrastructure Utilities | |
Natural GasNorth American gas showed strength on cold weather despite bearish sentiment. Production growth concentrated in Permian Basin while other shales declined. Supply growth expected to plateau as Permian oil production slows, setting stage for higher prices as LNG demand expands. |
Shale Permian LNG Weather | |
ReinsuranceLongtail Re executed a landmark $1.4 billion retrospective reinsurance transaction with Everest Group, growing assets to over $6 billion. The firm has delivered 20% annualized ROE since inception, focusing on selective legacy transactions while maintaining core prospective quota share business. |
Legacy Quota Share Loss Portfolio Transfer Float |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. represents 1.6% of company owned with cost basis of $6,255 million and market value of $61,962 million, providing $280 million in 2025 dividends. |
| AMZN | One company we own that we think has unique positioning to benefit from both the infrastructure and application layers is Amazon. Amazon's logistical prowess is one of the foremost moats in business today and it can and will be enhanced with AI. The company will do this in multiple ways, with better orchestration of its logistics assets and underlying cargo, as well as the buildout of more capable, sophisticated and robust robotics. Amazon is singularly well positioned to dominate the coordination layer, with AI's help, across its entire logistics network. |
| NVDA | AI bellwether NVIDIA's very strong set of earnings in late November helped the AI theme re-assert its dominance when investors breathed a sigh of relief following the results. |
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