| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Stone Sentinel Capital lost 7.8% in Q1 2026 versus the S&P 500's 4.3% decline, with a concentrated 4-stock portfolio spanning Hong Kong, Malaysia, US, and Japan. Manager Marcel Gozali distinguishes between risk (bounded, probabilistic outcomes) and uncertainty (unbounded, unpredictable outcomes), deliberately focusing on the former. The portfolio's two main detractors were Ascentech, a Japanese VDI infrastructure provider down 30% on AI disruption fears, and Protasco, a Malaysian road maintenance company down 21% on contract renewal uncertainty. Gozali argues AI fears are misplaced for infrastructure-layer businesses like Ascentech, which should benefit from increased IT complexity. Protasco trades at 1.3x earnings with 2.5x market cap in net cash, with strong historical precedent for contract renewals. Using the Proteus metaphor from The Odyssey, the manager emphasizes holding through market transformations to capture eventual rewards, positioning the portfolio to benefit from resolution of current geopolitical and technological uncertainties while maintaining strong downside protection.
Focus on businesses with risky but bounded outcomes rather than uncertain unbounded ones, maintaining concentrated positions in infrastructure-layer companies with defensive characteristics and significant upside potential when current market uncertainties resolve.
Manager expects current macro uncertainties to resolve favorably for positioned holdings, emphasizing the importance of holding through volatility to capture eventual rewards when uncertainties clear.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | AI, Asia, infrastructure, risk management, uncertainty, value | ASCENTECH.T | |
| Jan 2 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ASCENTECH.T | AI, Asia, Cloud, Japan, Mental Models, Philosophy, value | 3565 JP | Manager emphasizes building robust investment approaches for all market cycles, not just golden ages. Discusses how value investing edge comes from applying the right mental models at the right time, which LLMs cannot replicate. Focuses on sustainable insights rather than accessible knowledge. Manager addresses concerns that AI and LLMs will erode value investing advantages by making knowledge more accessible. Argues that insight requires both knowledge and thinking well through proper mental models, which AI cannot provide. Views AI as powerful synthesis tool but not source of original insights. Portfolio holding Ascentech operates Citrix VDI (Virtual Desktop Infrastructure) in Japan. Manager sees continued demand for secure hybrid work solutions in regulated industries. Views Citrix as control-plane infrastructure that AI runs within, making it resistant to AI disruption. |
| Oct 9 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 1627.HK, 5238.KL | Asia, Capital Allocation, Construction, dividends, real estate, value | - | Able Engineering Holdings is engaged in building construction and RMAA projects for Hong Kong public works, with double-digit growth supported by strong government spending. The company has a six-decade operating history and government-issued licenses for large public housing projects. China's ambitious plans to integrate Hong Kong with the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area will result in greater demand for public housing, directly supporting construction businesses. Strong government spending has supported near-3x EBIT growth in past 3 years. Hong Kong office market faces challenges with near-record high vacancy rates at 17%, with Kowloon East reporting even worse vacancy at 24%. However, cities are resilient networks that continuously adapt and reinvent themselves, making permanent trough unlikely for Hong Kong offices given the region's role as a key financial center. Able Engineering offers roughly 9% dividend yield with consistent and growing dividends since 2022. Protasco used to pay dividends until 2019, and resumption would signal proper capital allocation with dividends well-covered by cash and normalized free cash flow. |
| Jul 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 9 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
InfrastructureDigital 9 Infrastructure holds telecom infrastructure assets including Arqiva stake. Despite poor 2025 performance, potential capital returns and asset sales could unlock value. Infrastructure assets provide defensive characteristics. |
Telecom Infrastructure Digital Infrastructure | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
CloudAmazon's positioning to benefit from both infrastructure and application layers of AI is highlighted. The company's logistical prowess represents one of the foremost moats in business and will be enhanced with AI through better orchestration of logistics assets and buildout of more sophisticated robotics. |
Infrastructure Logistics Automation Efficiency Coordination | |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Commercial Real EstateFund invests in leading commercial real estate services companies CBRE, JLL, and Cushman & Wakefield that benefit from outsourcing trends, institutionalization of commercial real estate, and market share opportunities in a fragmented industry. These companies are expected to generate 15%+ annual earnings growth as commercial real estate sales and leasing activity rebounds. |
Services Outsourcing Institutionalization Market Share Fragmented |
ConstructionCTR Holdings builds structural frames and handles finishing work in Singapore, primarily on public projects. The Singaporean government provides stable cash flows through reliable payment terms. The company had significant net cash position and substantial signed project backlog when purchased. |
Public Projects Singapore Cash Flow Backlog | |
DividendsJapanese companies paid record dividends of ¥18 trillion for fiscal year ending March 2025, a 13.8% year-over-year increase. Many major firms have adopted progressive dividend policies guaranteeing dividends will never be cut, only maintained or increased. |
Progressive Dividend Record Payouts Shareholder Returns Yield Growth |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Fund Letters | Stone Sentinel Capital | ASCENTECH.T | Ascentech | Other | Systems Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI disruption, cash-rich, Citrix, Defensive Technology, infrastructure software, insider ownership, Japan, Value, Vdi, Zero Trust Security | Login |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Fund Letters | Stone Sentinel Capital | - | Protasco | Other | Construction & Engineering | Bull | Bolsas y Mercados Españoles (Madrid) | asset value, contract renewal, government contracts, infrastructure, Malaysia, net cash, political risk, Road Maintenance, switching costs, Value | Login |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Marcel Gozali | 3565 JP | Ascentech K.K. | Information Technology | IT Services & Systems Integration | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Execution, Hybridwork, Margins, Subscriptions, Vdi | Login |
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