Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 20.8% | 3.5% | 13.9% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.9% | 6.3% | 0.4% | -11.1% | 11.8% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 20.8% | 3.5% | 13.9% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.9% | 6.3% | 0.4% | -11.1% | 11.8% |
T. Bailey Multi-Asset Dynamic Fund delivered a 3.5% return in Q4 2025, concluding a strong year with 13.88% annual performance. The quarter was characterised by significant market developments including a US-China tariff truce that eased near-term supply-chain risks while leaving strategic issues unresolved. Artificial intelligence themes shifted focus from growth potential to capital discipline following Oracle's profit warning and data-centre project delays. Central bank policy divergence emerged as a key theme, with the Bank of Japan raising rates to three-decade highs while the US Federal Reserve cut rates. Portfolio performance benefited from broad diversification, with gold and copper holdings contributing positively alongside healthcare and insurance-related thematic exposures. The UK Budget introduced backloaded tax measures providing short-term fiscal breathing space. Looking ahead to 2026, the managers emphasise valuation discipline and liquidity access over single outcome forecasting, given high public debt levels, increased government market involvement, and the critical need for AI investments to generate sustainable cash flows.
Multi-asset diversification across geographies and asset classes provides resilience in an environment of policy divergence, elevated geopolitical tensions, and the transition from AI growth expectations to monetisation reality.
Looking into 2026, the backdrop is shaped by high public-sector debt, greater government involvement in trade and industry, and the need for the current wave of AI investment to translate into sustainable cash flows. In this environment we consider valuation discipline, liquidity, and access to a broad opportunity set matter more than forecasting any single outcome.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AZN.L, BYTS.L, CKN.L, EXPN.L, HIK.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, LLOY.L, MAN.L, MNDI.L, NWG.L, ORCL, ROR.L, TSCO.L | AI, Central Banks, Copper, diversification, gold, Multi-Asset, Trade Policy, UK Budget | - | Artificial intelligence shifted from growth to returns on capital as earnings and guidance highlighted rapidly rising infrastructure spending. Oracle's December profit warning and data-centre project… |
| Oct 16 2025 | 2025 Q3 | CHRY LN, GLDN AU | Copper, geopolitics, gold, inflation, Yields |
GLDN AU CHRY LN |
Gold surged to record highs, supported by falling bond yields, rising rate-cut expectations, and persistent geopolitical tension, making it the strongest contributor to returns. Copper… |
| Jul 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ETLN GR, PCILF, PUKVRGA ID | Alternatives, asset rotation, diversification, gold, Multi-Asset | ETLN GR | Active multi-asset allocation is positioned as essential amid shifting leadership between equities, bonds, and diversifiers. Flexibility allows rapid response to changing macro conditions and asset… |
| Apr 30 2025 | 2025 Q1 | CRT LN, ETLN GR | - | - | - |
| Jan 20 2025 | 2024 Q4 | CHRY LN, EWSX LN, IGLN LN | - | - | - |
| Oct 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BLAGESI ID | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
CopperMarket shifted from deficit to surplus as Chinese demand stalled for first time in 25 years while supply expanded by 3 million tonnes since 2021. Exchange inventories reached 1.2 million tonnes, highest since 2003. Bearish outlook as China transitions from under-consuming to over-consuming copper. |
Base Metals China Inventories Surplus | |
GoldGold reached record highs above $5,000 per ounce but silver's dramatic rally has triggered a sell signal. Historical pattern suggests both metals may enter 2-3 year correction period. Central bank demand remained strong at 863 tonnes for 2025, though China purchases slowed significantly. |
Precious Central Banks ETFs Debasement | |
Trade PolicyTrade policy dominated 2025 with surprise tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China igniting inflation fears and fracturing the post-WWII trade order. The administration threatened sweeping 125% tariffs in April, the highest U.S. tariff rates since 1935, before stepping back to bilateral deals. This policy uncertainty drove demand for tangible assets as hedges. |
Tariffs Trade War Bilateral Inflation Policy | |
| 2025 Q3 |
CommoditiesBull market may be in early stages with most commodities 46% below nominal peaks and 73% below inflation-adjusted highs. Commodity-to-equity ratio near historic lows suggests capital starvation. Current cycle appears only one-third complete compared to historical precedent. |
Cycles Capital Valuation Equities |
| 2025 Q2 |
DiversificationThe Fund remains purposefully diversified despite market leadership being narrow and focused on AI. This discipline reflects commitment to effective risk management and appropriate diversification, which weighed on relative performance but positions the Fund well for various market scenarios. |
Risk Management Portfolio Construction Concentration |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | GLDN AU | iShares Physical Gold ETF | Other | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | Commodities, diversification, Gold, Hedging, inflation, Macro, Rates, Safehaven | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | CHRY LN | Chrysalis Investments Limited | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | buybacks, discounts, Fintech, growth, IPOs, NAV, Privateequity, valuation | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | ETLN GR | L&G Europe Ex UK ETF | Financials | Exchange-Traded Funds | Bull | Bourse de Casablanca | Capital Rotation, Defense spending, Europe, Industrials, NATO | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AZN.L | AstraZeneca was one of the top performing holdings this quarter. |
| EXPN.L | Experian's shares were -1% in 2025. Consistent with much of the rest of the portfolio, operating results remain solid. The company will almost certainly report double-digit growth in earnings for 2025, and the company has met or exceeded investors' expectations for the year. The challenges have not so much been financial but hypothetical – focussed on AI's potential to change competitive dynamics in their industry. Experian is valued on a prospective 4.5% equity FCF yield. We have added to the Strategy's investments this year. |
| HLMA.L | Halma consists of over 50 manufacturers operating in global niches within the safety, environmental and healthcare sectors. Halma's diversification, focus on differentiated products and exposure to structurally growing markets have allowed yearly profits to compound at a 15% rate for more than four decades, with low variability. We believe Halma is exceptionally well-managed and expect this growth to continue. Despite Halma's share price rising 32% in 2025, its valuation remains reasonable given the durability and quality of its growth. |
| IMI.L | Our position in UK-listed IMI plc bolstered portfolio performance. As a global leader in the engineering of mission-critical valves and actuators, IMI provides essential fluid and motion control solutions strategically aligned with structural growth drivers. Since our initial entry in August 2024, the position has delivered substantial capital appreciation, rising over 40%. |
| LLOY.L | Lloyds Banking Group was among the rate-sensitive majors leading European banking sector outperformance. Sector returns have been underpinned by the stabilisation of short-term interest rates and a subsequent steepening of the European yield curve. |
| MAN.L | Man Group is a global active investment manager specialising in alternative and long-only strategies across public and private markets. Their Q3 trading statement released in mid-October was a major positive catalyst for a rebound in the share price having announced strong inflows and reaching record assets under management. |
| MNDI.L | Mondi is a leading European producer of corrugated packaging, containerboard, kraft paper, and uncoated fine paper. Currently, Mondi is out of favor due to a prolonged downturn in the European containerboard market, driven by oversupply and weak demand since 2022. Despite these near-term challenges, Mondi offers an attractive long-term opportunity. |
| NWG.L | Retail and commercial bank NatWest maintains a strong domestic market share offering wealth management and corporate banking services as well as a growing digital franchise. Results ahead of consensus on the back of upgraded guidance going in to the new year saw the share price surge throughout the final quarter. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. Given the widening range of potential outcomes associated with Oracle's elevated capital needs, we reduced our position in ORCL during Q4. |
| TSCO.L | Tesco, a UK-based multinational grocery and retail company operating a leading supermarket chain. Now one of our top 10 holdings in the portfolio, Tesco continues to benefit from its scale advantages and price leadership, which have allowed it to gain market share despite a competitive environment and a UK consumer backdrop that remains value conscious. At the same time, margin contributions from initiatives in retail media and continued share repurchases support earnings growth without requiring an improvement in consumer spending. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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