| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 18.6% | 4.0% | 14.6% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| 14.6% | 7.3% | 1.6% |
T. Bailey Multi-Asset Growth Fund delivered strong Q4 2025 performance of 4.01%, ending the year up 14.62%. The portfolio benefited from broad diversification across asset classes, with commodities leading performance as gold advanced 12.12% and copper gained 16.57%. Gold's safe haven characteristics were evident amid geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases, while copper was supported by tight supply-demand dynamics and stockpiling activity. The fund increased emerging market equity exposure and added active Japan allocation through Zennor Japan Equity Income Fund. AI themes faced scrutiny following Oracle's profit warning and data-centre project delays, marking a shift from growth focus to returns on capital. Trade tensions remained elevated despite a US-China tariff truce, while central bank policy divergence created uneven global financial conditions. UK Budget measures were largely backloaded, providing near-term fiscal breathing space. Looking ahead, the managers emphasise valuation discipline and broad opportunity set access over single outcome forecasting in an environment shaped by high public debt and evolving AI monetisation.
T. Bailey maintains a diversified multi-asset approach emphasising geographic diversification away from concentrated US equity exposure, with constructive views on emerging markets, commodities, and thematic opportunities in AI and healthcare, while managing risk through active allocation adjustments and valuation discipline.
Looking into 2026, the backdrop is shaped by high public-sector debt, greater government involvement in trade and industry, and the need for the current wave of AI investment to translate into sustainable cash flows. In this environment we consider valuation discipline, liquidity, and access to a broad opportunity set matter more than forecasting any single outcome.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AZN, BYTS.L, CKN.L, EXPN.L, HIK.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, LLOY.L, MAN.L, MNDI.L, MSFT, NWG.L, ORCL, ROR.L, SHOP.TO, TESCO.L, TSLA | AI, Central Banks, commodities, Copper, gold, Multi-Asset, Trade Policy, UK Budget | LGEU LN | Artificial intelligence shifted from growth to returns on capital as earnings and guidance highlighted rapidly rising infrastructure spending. Oracle's December profit warning and data-centre project… |
| Oct 16 2025 | 2025 Q3 | GLDN AU, MERFGBP ID, PLAIREA ID | demand, demographics, healthcare, innovation, regulation | GLDN AU | The Polar Capital Healthcare Opportunities fund rebounded sharply after a period of policy-driven pressure, aided by repositioning into lower-cap, lower-regulatory-risk names. Structural tailwindsageing populations, rising… |
| Jul 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 9896 JP, LFHGSIG LN, PCILF | asset allocation, Compounding, diversifiers, growth, real assets | 9896 JP | The fund emphasizes growth-oriented asset allocation balanced with diversifiers to manage drawdowns. Equity exposure is complemented by real assets and absolute return strategies. The approach… |
| Apr 30 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ETLN GR, IGLN LN, PCILF | - | - | - |
| Jan 20 2025 | 2024 Q4 | CHRY LN, EWSX LN, IGLN LN | - | - | - |
| Oct 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | IGLN LN, LFHGSAA LN, MANOPPT BZ | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
CopperMarket shifted from deficit to surplus as Chinese demand stalled for first time in 25 years while supply expanded by 3 million tonnes since 2021. Exchange inventories reached 1.2 million tonnes, highest since 2003. Bearish outlook as China transitions from under-consuming to over-consuming copper. |
Base Metals China Inventories Surplus | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
Trade PolicyRecent tariff policies continued to negatively impact U.S. consumers and companies throughout the year. However, international companies have been finding new trade arrangements and growth opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global trade patterns as the new U.S. administration alters terms of international cooperation. |
Tariffs International Growth Cooperation Impact | |
| 2025 Q3 |
HealthcareHealthcare was the strongest relative contributor in the quarter with holdings increasing nearly +16% compared to benchmark returns of roughly +12%. Exact Sciences was acquired for a significant premium by Abbott Laboratories resulting in an +86% return, while other strong performers included Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Glaukos following approval of a new product, Penumbra, and Repligen driven by strong earnings results. |
M&A Product Approval Earnings Biotech |
| 2025 Q2 |
Allocation |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | GLDN AU | iShares Physical Gold ETF | Other | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | Commodities, diversification, Gold, Hedging, inflation, Macro, Rates, Safehaven | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | 9896 JP | JK Japan | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | CapEx, Currency, Governance, Japan, Wages | Login |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | LGEU LN | L&G Europe ex UK Equity UCITS ETF | Financials | Asset Management | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | diversification, energy, Europe, financials, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. represents 1.6% of company owned with cost basis of $6,255 million and market value of $61,962 million, providing $280 million in 2025 dividends. |
| AZN | World-class pharmaceutical and medical products manufacturer |
| EXPN.L | Experian's shares were -1% in 2025. Consistent with much of the rest of the portfolio, operating results remain solid. The company will almost certainly report double-digit growth in earnings for 2025, and the company has met or exceeded investors' expectations for the year. The challenges have not so much been financial but hypothetical – focussed on AI's potential to change competitive dynamics in their industry. Experian is valued on a prospective 4.5% equity FCF yield. We have added to the Strategy's investments this year. |
| HLMA.L | Halma consists of over 50 manufacturers operating in global niches within the safety, environmental and healthcare sectors. Halma's diversification, focus on differentiated products and exposure to structurally growing markets have allowed yearly profits to compound at a 15% rate for more than four decades, with low variability. We believe Halma is exceptionally well-managed and expect this growth to continue. Despite Halma's share price rising 32% in 2025, its valuation remains reasonable given the durability and quality of its growth. |
| IMI.L | Our position in UK-listed IMI plc bolstered portfolio performance. As a global leader in the engineering of mission-critical valves and actuators, IMI provides essential fluid and motion control solutions strategically aligned with structural growth drivers. Since our initial entry in August 2024, the position has delivered substantial capital appreciation, rising over 40%. |
| LLOY.L | Lloyds Banking Group was among the rate-sensitive majors leading European banking sector outperformance. Sector returns have been underpinned by the stabilisation of short-term interest rates and a subsequent steepening of the European yield curve. |
| MAN.L | Man Group is a global active investment manager specialising in alternative and long-only strategies across public and private markets. Their Q3 trading statement released in mid-October was a major positive catalyst for a rebound in the share price having announced strong inflows and reaching record assets under management. |
| MNDI.L | Mondi is a leading European producer of corrugated packaging, containerboard, kraft paper, and uncoated fine paper. Currently, Mondi is out of favor due to a prolonged downturn in the European containerboard market, driven by oversupply and weak demand since 2022. Despite these near-term challenges, Mondi offers an attractive long-term opportunity. |
| MSFT | MSFT was a detractor in 4Q25 following its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings report released on October 29. While results were better than expected operationally, investor reaction was driven by guidance and capital expenditure intensity rather than headline performance. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations, and Azure revenue increased 39% year-over-year, also ahead of estimates. However, management guided to a sequential deceleration in Azure growth in fiscal Q2, signaling some moderation after a period of exceptional demand. |
| NWG.L | Retail and commercial bank NatWest maintains a strong domestic market share offering wealth management and corporate banking services as well as a growing digital franchise. Results ahead of consensus on the back of upgraded guidance going in to the new year saw the share price surge throughout the final quarter. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. Given the widening range of potential outcomes associated with Oracle's elevated capital needs, we reduced our position in ORCL during Q4. |
| SHOP.TO | Non dividend paying technology names Shopify and Celestica had also meaningful contribution to the index returns for the year, detracting our relative outcome. |
| TSLA | Under the previous system, companies that produced only electric vehicles—most notably Tesla—generated large quantities of credits that could then be sold to manufacturers falling short of their EV production targets, allowing them to avoid regulatory penalties. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
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