| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| -0.42% | -2.31% | -2.31% |
The T. Bailey UK Responsibly Invested Equity Fund declined 2.31% in Q1 2026, underperforming the broader UK market's 2.41% return due to its index-agnostic approach favoring companies outside the largest names. The quarter was dominated by unprecedented geopolitical shocks including US-Israeli strikes on Iran, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the largest energy supply disruption in living memory. Brent crude recorded its largest monthly gain on record, ending above $110 per barrel. The fund benefited from strong performance in Beazley, which received a takeover approach from Zurich at a 60% premium, and Clarkson, which gained from increased shipping complexity due to geopolitical tensions. However, technology names like Bytes suffered from Microsoft Enterprise Agreement changes and macro headwinds. Portfolio activity included profit-taking from outperformers, exiting Marshalls due to waning conviction, and introducing Kerry Group. The managers emphasize the need for prudent risk management and selectivity in an increasingly volatile and multipolar world, while maintaining focus on responsible investing principles.
Active UK equity management focused on companies outside the largest names, emphasizing responsible investing principles while navigating a volatile geopolitical environment dominated by energy supply disruptions and institutional uncertainty.
We believe this is a time to be prudent with risk, to be selective, to think globally, and to build equity and multi-asset portfolios capable of adapting to a more volatile and multipolar world. Volatility appears more likely than structural impairment, with de-escalation remaining the most likely path forward.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 2026 | 2026 Q1 | BEZ.L, BYIT.L, CKN.L | AI, energy, Geopolitical, gold, Iran, oil, UK Equities, volatility | - | UK equity fund declined 2.31% in volatile Q1 2026 dominated by Iran conflict and energy supply disruption. Index-agnostic approach favoring smaller names led to underperformance despite strong gains from Beazley takeover and Clarkson benefiting from shipping disruption. Technology holdings pressured by macro headwinds. Managers emphasize selectivity and prudent risk management in increasingly volatile geopolitical environment. |
| Jan 18 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AZN.L, BYTS.L, CKN.L, EXPN.L, HIK.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, LLOY.L, MAN.L, MNDI.L, NWG.L, ORCL, ROR.L, TSCO.L | Banking, Esg, financials, Responsible Investing, UK Equities |
EMG LN NWG LN MNDI LN |
T. Bailey UK Responsibly Invested Equity Fund delivered 3.8% in Q4 through selective financial sector exposure, led by Man Group and NatWest. The fund's focus on financially sound businesses at attractive valuations proved effective despite weak UK economic data. UK equities remain compelling versus elevated US valuations. |
| Oct 16 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, AZN.L, CCC.L, CKN.L, COA.L, GOOGL, HILS.L, IMI.L, INTC, ITRK.L, LRE.L, META, MSFT, NVDA, ROR.L, SPI.L, STEM.L, TSCO.L, TSLA | AI, diversification, emerging markets, fiscal policy, gold, healthcare, monetary policy, Multi-Asset |
STEM LN CKN LN MSLH LN |
T. Bailey funds delivered positive returns despite AI concentration risks and fiscal concerns. Gold hit record highs above $3,800 as safe haven demand surged. Fed cut rates 25bp amid softening employment. Emerging markets outperformed on China stimulus and dollar weakness. Managers reduced AI exposure while maintaining global diversification toward attractive valuations in Japan, UK, and emerging markets over expensive US technology names. |
| Jul 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AZN, BEZ.L, CRM, CSCO, EMG.L, HIK.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, LRE.L, MSFT, NEM, NVDA, PANW, PETS.L, ROR.L, SRC.L, STEM.L, TSCO.L, XPS.L | active management, defense, diversification, Geopolitical, inflation, technology, Uk, value | SXS LN | T. Bailey argues US equity dominance is ending as international markets outperform amid geopolitical tensions and inflation. The firm advocates active management and geographic diversification beyond US-centric allocations, capturing opportunities in undervalued UK markets, AI themes, and defense spending while managing risks through alternatives and value-focused positioning across global markets. |
| Apr 30 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AJB.L, AZN, BEZ.L, BTC-USD, CCC.L, CKN.L, FOUR.L, HIK.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, MGAM.L, ORG.L, OXIG.L, RCDO.L, ROR.L, SXS.L, TSCO.L, TSLA, XPS.L | AI, commodities, defense, diversification, Europe, infrastructure, tariffs, volatility | - | T. Bailey navigated Q1 2025 volatility from Trump tariff policies by leveraging diversification across European equities, commodities, and absolute return strategies. European markets outperformed on substantial fiscal stimulus while US tech faced pressure from new AI models. The firm increased European exposure, trimmed expensive US tech, and maintained defensive positioning amid ongoing trade tensions and inflation concerns. |
| Jan 20 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AZN, BEZ.L, BYIT.L, CKN.L, EXPN.L, FOUR.L, HIK.L, HILS.L, HLMA.L, IMI.L, ITRK.L, MGAM.L, MGNS.L, OGN.L, PETS.L, ROR.L, STHP.L, SXS.L, TSCO.L, XPS.L | AI, diversification, gold, inflation, Multi-Asset, REITs, Uk, value | - | T. Bailey's multi-asset funds delivered solid 2024 returns while positioning for value opportunities in undervalued UK markets versus expensive US equities. The strategy emphasizes diversification across themes like AI, cybersecurity, and gold, using alternatives as volatility buffers. Management expects earnings broadening and value factor recovery while navigating elevated geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties in 2025. |
| Oct 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AZN.L, BEZ.L, BWY.L, CCC.L, COA.L, EXPN.L, HLMA.L, ITRK.L, KLR.L, OXIG.L | AI, diversification, gold, infrastructure, Multi-Asset, REITs, Uk, value | - | Multi-asset funds capitalized on monetary policy pivot from inflation to growth focus, with infrastructure and value strategies outperforming as market leadership broadened beyond technology. Strategic positioning in discounted REITs and value equities delivered gains while AI holdings faced valuation pressures. Diversified approach across quality companies at attractive multiples positions funds well for continued rate cuts and broadening earnings growth. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilThe quarter was dominated by the largest energy supply disruption in living memory following US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude recorded its largest monthly gain on record, ending above $110 per barrel. The energy shock penalized energy-importing regions most acutely, with oil prices creating violent market swings throughout March. |
Brent Energy Geopolitical Supply Disruption |
GeopoliticalMultiple geopolitical shocks defined the quarter including a Federal Reserve investigation, tariff threats against NATO allies tied to territorial demands, and military strikes on Iran. These events forced investors to re-examine long-standing assumptions about American institutions and commitments that had ceased to be actively questioned. |
Iran NATO Tariffs Fed Institutions | |
GoldGold experienced counterintuitive behavior, falling around 10% in March despite active military conflict, as rising real yields increased opportunity costs and a stronger dollar compounded effects. However, over twelve months the asset returned 44.6% in sterling terms, driven by emerging-market central banks accumulating as part of structural diversification away from dollar reserves. |
Safe Haven Dollar Central Banks Reserves | |
AIThe AI theme faced pressure when Anthropic launched industry-specific plugins for Claude Cowork, prompting markets to price the risk that general-purpose AI agents could replicate workflows that specialist software platforms had long monetized. This created the so-called pAIn trade, though active management within the theme was well-placed to exploit distinctions between threatened software names and resilient infrastructure businesses. |
Anthropic Software Infrastructure Disruption | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI continued to dominate investor attention throughout 2025, but focus shifted from growth potential to questions of profitability and capital discipline. Oracle's December profit warning and data-centre project delays intensified scrutiny of near-term monetisation, marking a turning point that tempered earlier enthusiasm for AI infrastructure. |
Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Monetisation Data Centers Profitability |
GoldGold surged above US$4,300 per ounce in October, prompting exposure to be trimmed closer to long-term strategic targets. Despite experiencing one of its steepest single-day declines in years on 21 October, the metal subsequently recovered to reach a new high above US$4,500 in December, supported by falling bond yields and safe haven demand. |
Safe Haven Precious Metals Volatility Strategic Allocation | |
CopperCopper performed well this quarter, rising 16.57%, with demand remaining resilient supported by ongoing electrification and infrastructure spend. Supply stayed relatively tight due to limited new mine capacity and periodic disruptions, while improving risk sentiment and stockpiling activity provided additional support. |
Electrification Infrastructure Supply Constraints Industrial Demand | |
HealthcareHealthcare exposure was among the standout contributors to performance, with ongoing scrutiny of drug pricing and clearer reform momentum helping reduce perceived policy risk. The sector benefited from a constructive backdrop as policy risks that had weighed on sentiment began to recede. |
Drug Pricing Policy Risk Reform Valuations | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI-driven rally led by US megacaps shows growing concentration risk. NVIDIA evolved from enabler to financier with $100bn OpenAI investment and $5bn Intel collaboration. Fund managers remain cautious on elevated valuations while transitioning from overvalued enablers to longer-term AI beneficiaries. |
NVIDIA OpenAI Hyperscalers Data Centers Semiconductors |
GoldGold climbed relentlessly through the quarter, surpassing $3,800 per ounce to set fresh record highs. Strength captured growing unease over debt, deficits, and erosion of institutional independence. Safe haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases added momentum. |
Safe Haven Central Banks Inflation Hedge Monetary Policy Geopolitical Risk | |
Emerging MarketsAsia ex-Japan delivered strongest regional returns for sterling-based investors. China introduced fresh stimulus measures for consumer spending and housing market. Emerging markets benefited from softer US dollar, easing inflationary pressures, and selective rate cuts across key economies. |
China Asia Currency Stimulus Valuations | |
HealthcareHealthcare sector showed strong performance after period of pressure from US policy uncertainty. Fund repositioning down the cap scale toward companies less exposed to regulatory risk. Sector benefits from powerful secular drivers including aging population and rising healthcare demand. |
Demographics Policy Risk Biotechnology Medical Devices Pharmaceuticals | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI-led productivity gains are real and technology focused funds like Polar Capital AI rebounded strongly in Q2. The fund takes a broader approach including allocations to industrials positioned as AI adoption beneficiaries. Sharp recoveries in AI enablers like Nvidia and Microsoft drove V-shaped price action from Q1 to Q2. |
Artificial Intelligence Productivity Technology Nvidia Microsoft |
CybersecurityFirst Trust Cybersecurity benefited from heightened geopolitical tensions and increased military activity globally, as cyber warfare plays an increasingly critical role in modern conflict. Geopolitical tensions and rising cyber threats drove strong performance with demand for real-time threat detection accelerating. |
Cyber Defense Geopolitical Digital Warfare Threat Detection CrowdStrike | |
Defense SpendingRising European defense spending provided a powerful tailwind for industrials, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed NATO commitments to meet or exceed 2% defense spending targets. This has driven sustained demand across the defense value chain. |
NATO Military Geopolitical European Industrials | |
Infrastructure SpendingPublic sector investment continues to rise with Morgan Sindall Group benefiting from strong earnings and growth in its infrastructure division. Government investment spending on infrastructure provides ongoing opportunities for construction and engineering companies. |
Public Sector Construction Engineering Government Investment | |
Commercial Real EstateUK REIT sector showing continued consolidation and value recognition with Urban Logistics REIT receiving a takeover bid from LondonMetric Property. The acquisition highlighted strategic value and deep discounts to NAV across the UK REIT sector, with both CARE REIT and Urban Logistics accepting takeover bids. |
REITs Consolidation NAV Discount Takeover Property | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Defense SpendingEuropean defense spending surge driven by policy shifts, deadlock in US-Ukraine aid discussions, and pressure on NATO members to boost military budgets. Germany's €500 billion infrastructure and defense spending program boosted regional confidence. The L&G Europe Ex UK Equity UCITS ETF was introduced to access the entire defense value chain and economic impact. |
NATO Military Infrastructure Policy |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump's unpredictable tariff policies unsettled global markets, contributing to heightened volatility and early fears of stagflation. Tariffs particularly targeting China and North American trading partners undermined investor confidence and triggered sharp market swings. Post-quarter end, sweeping new tariffs on imports from over 180 countries including 34% additional tariff on Chinese goods. |
Tariffs China Volatility Stagflation | |
AINew cost-effective AI models, such as China's DeepSeek, garnered attention and prompted a re-evaluation of high valuations for US technology stocks. AI hyperscalers have unwound following the introduction of more efficient AI models. Benefits expanding into other sectors like Healthcare, Insurance, and Industrials as earnings broaden out. |
DeepSeek Technology Valuations Healthcare | |
CopperCopper prices surged over 20%, driven by infrastructure optimism and supply-demand trends. Front-running of potential US tariffs, global infrastructure optimism and long-term secular trends toward electrification supported performance. The potential 25% tariff on copper imports has driven US copper futures to record highs as buyers rush to secure supply before tariffs take effect. |
Infrastructure Electrification Tariffs Supply | |
GoldGold reached record highs as a safe-haven asset amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. Performance reflects ongoing concerns over persistent inflation, which have been further exacerbated by tariffs. Supported by central bank diversification away from the US dollar, investor demand for inflation hedging and geopolitical risk management. |
Safe-haven Inflation Central Banks Geopolitical | |
Infrastructure SpendingGermany's launch of a €500 billion infrastructure and defense spending program boosted regional confidence, leading to strong performance in cyclically sensitive sectors. Global infrastructure optimism supported copper performance. Long-term supply and demand dynamics fueled by ongoing upgrades to grid infrastructure. |
Germany Cyclical Grid Investment | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIThe fund maintains exposure to artificial intelligence through Polar Capital Artificial Intelligence Fund, which recovered after a challenging prior quarter. The manager sees AI benefits expanding into other sectors like Healthcare, Insurance, and Industrials as earnings broaden out. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Healthcare Insurance Industrials |
GoldGold performed well during the quarter due to its favourable positioning amidst modestly declining yet persistent inflation and more accommodative monetary policy. The manager views gold as a portfolio diversifier and alternative currency, with supportive macroeconomic conditions. |
Gold Inflation Monetary Policy Diversifier Currency | |
CybersecurityThe fund holds First Trust Cybersecurity ETF which provides exposure to companies providing critical infrastructure essential for safeguarding data and networks. It aligns with the digitisation theme and has benefited from developments in AI. |
Cybersecurity Infrastructure Data Networks Digitisation | |
ValueThe manager sees a renewed focus on value investing as earnings growth broadens and factors that have lagged in recent quarters have potential to make up ground. UK equities are highlighted as trading at attractive valuations. |
Value Earnings UK Equities Valuations Broadening | |
| 2024 Q3 |
InfrastructureManager introduced VT Gravis UK Infrastructure Fund recognizing that softening interest rates would benefit closed-ended infrastructure funds trading at wide discounts. Infrastructure and property exposure through Impact Healthcare REIT and Urban Logistics provided strong returns as the sector recovers from a low base. |
Infrastructure REITs Discounts Yields Recovery |
AIArtificial intelligence theme faced challenges as valuations rose and expectations increased. Manager maintains balanced exposure through Polar Capital Artificial Intelligence Fund while recognizing shift from large-cap tech enablers to companies that can benefit from AI implementation. |
AI Technology Valuations Implementation Healthcare | |
ValueMarket leadership shifted toward value equities as interest rate cycle turned. Value-conscious funds like Ranmore Global Equity and WS Havelock Global Select were additive to performance as market breadth improved beyond large-cap technology dominance. |
Value Leadership Breadth Rotation Undervalued | |
GoldGold allocation acts as both diversifier and alternative currency given elevated correlations across asset classes. Physical gold exposure delivered strong returns and outweighed softening in copper allocation during the quarter. |
Gold Diversifier Currency Physical Correlations |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | EMG LN | Man Group plc | Financials | Asset Management | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Alternatives, asset management, Inflows, operating leverage, Volatility | Login |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | NWG LN | NatWest Group plc | Financials | Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | banking, capital returns, digital banking, earnings visibility, net interest margin | Login |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | MNDI LN | Mondi plc | Materials | Packaging | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | Capex discipline, cash generation, Cyclicality, industrial demand, Packaging | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | MSLH LN | Marshalls plc | Materials | Construction Materials | Bull | NYSE | construction, Costs, Cyclicals, Housing, Landscaping, Margins, materials, Sustainability | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | STEM LN | SThree plc | Utilities | Human Resource & Employment Services | Bull | NYSE | Cyclicals, efficiency, Employment, Margins, Recruitment, Staffing, Stem, technology | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | CKN LN | Clarkson PLC | Industrials | Marine | Bull | NYSE | Brokerage, Data, Decarbonisation, Logistics, Pricingpower, services, Shipping, Trade | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Elliot Farley | SXS LN | Spectris | Industrials | Electronic Equipment & Instruments | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | bidding war, Catalysts, private equity, takeover, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| BEZ.L | Specialist insurer Beazley's stellar share price performance was mainly due to Zurich's takeover approach. Zurich announced and then improved an all-cash offer, culminating in agreed terms valuing Beazley at a c.60% premium. Strong 2025 results underpinned Zurich's interest and supported the re-rating. |
| CKN.L | Shipping services provider, Clarkson, was a strong contributor as investors looked through softer earnings to the supportive shipping backdrop and positive 2026 momentum. An indirect beneficiary of current geopolitical tensions, disruption to Hormuz transit increases volatility and complexity in chartering, boosting the demand for Clarkson's brokerage, research and advisory services. |
| BYIT.L | Share price performance of the software reseller reflected several pressures: reduced Microsoft Enterprise Agreement incentives hitting mainly public sector business, a challenging macro backdrop, and disruption from restructuring its corporate sales division. These factors dampened revenue and profit expectations. Broker downgrades and concerns over leverage further weakened sentiment. A late March 2026 trading update, which flagged ongoing trading headwinds and a disappointing profit outlook, triggered a sharp one day drop and cemented the quarter's de-rating. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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